Essential Report 130916


2/11

The Essential Report 16/09/13 Page2/11

TheEssentialReport

Date: 16September2013

Preparedby: EssentialResearch

Datasupplied:

EssentialMediaCommunicationsisamemberof

theAssociationofMarketandSocialResearchOrganisations.

Ourresearchersaremembersof

theAustralianMarketandSocialResearchSociety


3/11


Aboutthispoll

ThisreportsummarisestheresultsofaweeklyomnibusconductedbyEssentialResearchwithdataprovidedbyYourSource.Thesurveywas

conductedonlinefromthe12th

to15th

Septemberandisbasedon974respondents.

Asidefromthestandardquestiononvotingintention,thisweeksreportincludesquestionsonminorpartiesintheSenate,theLiberal/National

Governmentandeconomicconditions.

Themethodologyusedtocarryoutthisresearchisdescribedintheappendixonpage11.

Notethatduetorounding,notalltablesnecessarilytotal100%andsubtotalsmayalsovary.


4/11


Federalpoliticsvotingintention

Q.IfaFederalElectionwasheldtodaytowhichpartywillyouprobablygiveyourfirstpreferencevote?Ifnotsure,whichpartyareyoucurrently

leaningtoward?

Q.Ifdontknow-Wellwhichpartyareyoucurrentlyleaningto?

Samplesize=1,864respondents

Firstpreference/leaningto

Election

7Sep13

(current

figures)

4weeks

ago

19/8/13

2weeks

ago

2/9/13

Last

week

9/9/13

This

week

16/9/13

Liberal 41% 41% 41% 42%

National 3% 3% 3% 3%

TotalLib/Nat 45.6% 44% 44% 45% 44%Labor 33.6% 40% 35% 35% 36%

Greens 8.4% 8% 11% 9% 9%

Other/Independent 12.4% 8% 10% 12% 11%

2PartyPreferredElection

7Sep13

4weeks

ago

19/8/13

2weeks

ago

2/9/13

Last

week

9/9/13

This

week

16/9/13

LiberalNational 53.4% 50% 52% 53% 53%

Labor 46.6% 50% 48% 47% 47%

NB.Thedataintheabovetablescomprise2-weekaveragesderivedfromthefirstpreference/leaningtovotingquestions.Respondentswhoselect

dontknowarenotincludedintheresults.Thetwo-partypreferredestimateiscalculatedbydistributingthevotesoftheotherpartiesaccordingto

theirpreferencesatthe2010election.


5/11


Electionofminorparties

Q.DoyouthinktheelectionofmicropartiesintheSenate-suchasPalmerUnitedParty,FamilyFirst,LiberalDemocrats,MotorEnthusiastsParty,

AustralianSportsParty-isgoodorbadfordemocracy?

Total

Vote

Labor

Vote

Lib/Nat

Vote

Greens

Other

party/

Indepen

dent

Goodfordemocracy 38% 41% 27% 45% 78%

Badfordemocracy 25% 18% 39% 25% 4%

Makesnodifference 22% 24% 22% 20% 12%

Dontknow 15% 17% 12% 10% 5%

38%thinkthattheelectionofmicropartiestotheSenateisgoodfordemocracy,25%thinkitisbadfordemocracyand22%thinkitmakesno

difference.

Olderrespondentsweremorelikelytothinkitisbadfordemocracy-42%ofaged55+comparedto19%ofthoseagedunder55.


6/11


BetterorworseGovernment

Q.AftertheelectiontheCoalitionGovernmentwillnothaveamajorityintheSenatetheywillneedthesupportoftheminorpartiesand

independentstopasslegislation.DoyouthinkthiswillresultinabetterorworseGovernmentforAustralia?

Total

Vote

Labor

Vote

Lib/Nat

Vote

Greens

Other

party/

Indepen

dent

Totalbetter 44% 53% 32% 62% 59%

Totalworse 30% 24% 44% 20% 11%

Alotbetter 18% 25% 9% 26% 33%

Alittlebetter 26% 28% 23% 36% 26%

Alittleworse 16% 10% 24% 14% 6%

Alotworse 14% 14% 20% 6% 5%Makenodifference 10% 10% 8% 8% 18%

Dontknow 16% 13% 16% 9% 12%

44%thinkthatbetterGovernmentwillresultfromtheCoalitionneedingthesupportofminorpartiesandindependentsintheSenatewhile30%

thinkitwillresultinworseGovernment.

AmajorityofLabor,GreensandothervotersthinkitwillresultinbetterGovernmentwhile44%ofLiberal/Nationalvotersthinkitwillresultinworse

Government.


7/11


BetterorworseunderLiberal/NationalGovernment

Q.UnderthenewLiberal/NationalGovernment,doyouexpectthefollowingwillgetbetterorworse?

Total

better

Total

worse

Alot

better

Alittle

better

Staymuch

the

same

Alittle

worse

Alot

worse

Dont

know

Politicalleadership 42% 31% 23% 19% 26% 13% 18% 2%

TrustinGovernment 36% 36% 16% 20% 27% 14% 22% 2%

Unemployment 27% 37% 8% 19% 34% 19% 18% 2%

Theeconomyoverall 38% 30% 17% 21% 30% 16% 14% 2%

Thecostofliving 27% 40% 9% 18% 32% 20% 20% 1%

Interestrates 17% 31% 6% 11% 49% 18% 13% 3%

Healthservices 23% 42% 8% 15% 34% 20% 22% 2%

Jobsecurity 22% 43% 7% 15% 32% 21% 22% 3%

Workersrightsandconditions 18% 47% 7% 11% 33% 20% 27% 2%

Companyprofits 47% 14% 15% 32% 34% 7% 7% 4%

Theenvironment 18% 39% 7% 11% 40% 16% 23% 2%

Educationandschools 25% 41% 7% 18% 32% 19% 22% 2%

Publicservices 20% 45% 7% 13% 34% 21% 24% 2%

BenefitsforpeopleonGovernmentsupport-

suchaspensionersandtheunemployed

19% 44% 7% 12% 35% 21% 23% 2%

Yourpersonalfinancialsituation 22% 35% 7% 15% 42% 18% 17% 1%

Respondentsweremorelikelytoexpectpoliticalleadership,theeconomyoverallandcompanyprofitswillgetbetterunderthenewLiberal/National

Government.TrustinGovernmentwasjustaslikelytogetbetterasgetworse.Allotherissuestestedwerethoughttobemorelikelytogetworse-

especiallyworkersrightsandconditions,publicservices,benefitsforpeopleonGovernmentsupport,jobsecurityandhealthservices.


8/11


Stateoftheeconomy

Q.Overall,howwouldyoudescribethecurrentstateoftheAustralianeconomy?

28May

128Apr13 15Jul13

Total

16Sep

13

Vote

Labor

Vote

Lib/Nat

Vote

Greens

Totalgood 35% 45% 36% 40% 50% 32% 56%

Totalpoor 29% 26% 30% 25% 18% 35% 18%

Verygood 6% 8% 6% 6% 11% 3% 11%

Good 29% 37% 30% 34% 39% 29% 45%

Neithergoodnorpoor 33% 28% 30% 32% 29% 32% 24%

Poor 20% 17% 22% 20% 15% 28% 15%

Verypoor 9% 9% 8% 5% 3% 7% 3%

Dontknow 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2%

40%describedtheeconomyasgoodorverygoodand25%poor/verypoor-32%saiditwasneither.Thisrepresentsanetimprovementfrom+6to

+15sinceJuly.

ThisimprovementwasmainlyduetoashiftintheopinionsofLiberal/National-from18%good/45%poor(net-27)inJulyto32%good/35%poor

(net-3).Laborvotershavealsoshifted-fromnet+45tonet+32.

Thosemostlikelytothinktheeconomywasgood/verygoodwerepeoplewithincomesover$1,600pw(48%).


9/11


Australianeconomyheadinginrightorwrongdirection

Q.Fromwhatyouhavereadandheard,doyouthinktheAustralianeconomyisheadingintherightdirectionorthewrongdirection?

17May10

9May11

4Jul11 26Mar12

18Jun12

29Apr13

15Jul13

Total

16Sep

13

VoteLabor

VoteLib/Nat

VoteGreens

Therightdirection 51% 45% 37% 36% 43% 36% 38% 44% 40% 52% 33%

Thewrongdirection 25% 29% 43% 41% 32% 39% 42% 26% 33% 20% 30%

Dontknow 24% 25% 20% 22% 25% 25% 20% 30% 27% 28% 37%

44%ofrespondentsthinkthatAustraliaseconomyisheadingintherightdirection26%thinkitisheadinginthewrongdirection.Sincethis

questionwasaskedinJuly,rightdirectionhasincreased6%andwrongdirectiondecreased16%.

40%(down26%)ofLaborvoters,52%(up34%)ofLiberal/Nationalvotersand33%(down13%)ofGreensvotersthinktheeconomyisheadinginthe

rightdirection.50%ofmenthinktheeconomyisheadingintherightdirectioncomparedto37%ofwomen.


10/11


Economicoutlook

Q.Overthenext12monthsdoyouthinkeconomicconditionsinAustraliawillgetbetter,getworseorstaymuchthesame?

1Dec

08

5Oct

09

18Oct

10

3Oct

11

27Aug

12

29Jan

13

Total

16Sep

13

Vote

Labor

Vote

Lib/Nat

Vote

Greens

Totalbetter 21% 66% 40% 16% 22% 29% 38% 16% 68% 13%

Totalworse 61% 15% 30% 58% 45% 37% 33% 59% 8% 58%

Getalotbetter 2% 8% 6% 2% 3% 4% 7% 4% 14% -

Getalittlebetter 19% 58% 34% 14% 19% 25% 31% 12% 54% 13%

Getalittleworse 45% 11% 20% 41% 30% 28% 23% 40% 7% 40%

Getalotworse 16% 4% 10% 17% 15% 9% 10% 19% 1% 18%

Staymuchthesame 13% 15% 24% 22% 27% 27% 19% 17% 19% 20%Dontknow 5% 4% 6% 4% 6% 6% 10% 9% 5% 10%

ConfidenceintheeconomicoutlookhasimprovedsinceJanuary.Thepercentageofrespondentsbelievingconditionswillgetbetterincreased9

pointsto38%,whilethosebelievingthateconomicconditionswillgetworseoverthenext12monthsdropped4pointsto33%.Thisisthemost

positiveoutlookrecordedsinceOctober2010.

Shiftsinopinionarestronglyassociatedwithvotingintention-Laborvotershaveshiftedfrom50%better/22%worse(net+28)to16%better/59%

worse(net-43).Liberal/Nationalvotershaveshiftedfrom21%better/51%worse(net-30)to68%better/8%worse(net+60).


11/11


Appendix:Methodology,marginoferrorandprofessionalstandards

ThedatagatheredforthisreportisgatheredfromaweeklyonlineomnibusconductedbyYourSource.EssentialResearchhasbeenutilizingtheYourSource

onlinepaneltoconductresearchonaweek-by-weekbasissinceNovember2007.

Eachweek,theteamatEssentialMediaCommunicationsdiscussesissuesthataretopicalandaseriesofquestionsaredevisedtoputtotheAustralianpublic.

Somequestionsarerepeatedregularly(suchaspoliticalpreferenceandleadershipapproval),whileothersareuniquetoeachweekandreflectmediaandsocial

issuesthatarepresentatthetime.

YourSourcehasaself-managedconsumeronlinepanelofover100,000members.Themajorityofpanelmembershavebeenrecruitedusingoffline

methodologies,effectivelyrulingoutconcernsassociatedwithonlineself-selection.

YourSourcehasvalidationmethodsinplacethatpreventpanellistoveruseandensurememberauthenticity.YourSourcerandomlyselects18+malesandfemales

(withtheaimoftargeting50/50males/females)fromitsAustraliawidepanel.Aninvitationissentouttoapproximately70008000oftheirpanelmembers.

Theresponseratevarieseachweek,butusuallydelivers1000+interviews.Intheory,withasampleofthissize,thereis95percentcertaintythattheresultsare

within3percentagepointsofwhattheywouldbeiftheentirepopulationhadbeenpolled.However,thisassumesrandomsampling,which,becauseofnon-

responseandlessthan100%populationcoveragecannotbeachievedinpractice.Furthermore,thereareotherpossiblesourcesoferrorinallpollsincluding

questionwordingandquestionorder,interviewerbias(fortelephoneandface-to-facepolls),responseerrorsandweighting.Thebestguidetoapollsaccuracyis

tolookattherecordofthepollingcompany-howhavetheyperformedatpreviouselectionsorotheroccasionswheretheirestimatescanbecomparedwith

knownpopulationfigures.Inthelastpollbeforethe2010election,theEssentialReportestimatesoffirstpreferencevoteswereallwithin1%oftheelection

results.

TheYourSourceonlineomnibusislivefromtheWednesdaynightofeachweekandclosedonthefollowingSunday.Incentivesareofferedtoparticipantsinthe

formofpoints.EssentialResearchusestheStatisticalPackagefortheSocialSciences(SPSS)softwaretoanalysethedata.ThedataisweightedagainstAustralian

BureauofStatistics(ABS)data.

AllEssentialResearchandseniorYourSourcestaffholdAustralianMarketandSocialResearchSociety(AMSRS)membershipandareboundbyprofessionalcodes

ofbehaviour.YourSourceisanAustraliansocialandmarketresearchcompanyspecializinginrecruitment,fieldresearch,datagatheringanddataanalysis.

EssentialResearchisamemberoftheAssociationMarketandSocialResearchOrganisations(AMSRO).YourSourceholdsInterviewerQualityControlAustralia

(IQCA)accreditation,AssociationMarketandSocialResearchOrganisations(AMSRO)membershipandWorldAssociationofOpinionandMarketingResearch

Professionals(ESOMAR)membership.BothEssentialResearchandYourSourceareISOaccreditedmarketresearchcompanies.Thisresearchwasconductedin

compliancewithAS:ISO20252guidelines.

Documents

Essential Report 130916