Essential Report 120326

8/2/2019 Essential Report 120326

1/14

26March2012

1531PelhamStreet

Carlton

Victoria3053

Phone0399299903

Mobile0416121969

Withdatasuppliedby


2/14

AboutthePoll

ThisreportsummarisestheresultsofaweeklyomnibusconductedbyEssentialResearchwithdataprovidedbyYourSource.Thesurvey

wasconductedonlinebetweenthe21stand25

thMarch2012andisbasedon1,045respondents.

Asidefromthestandardquestiononvotingintention,thisweeksreportincludesquestionsontheeconomy,theKony2012campaign,

takingsickdays,theAustraliandollarandtheminingboom.

Themethodologyusedtocarryoutthisresearchisavailableintheappendixonpage14.

Notethatduetorounding,notalltablesnecessarilytotal100%andsubtotalsmayalsovary.


3/14

Federalpoliticsvotingintention

Q.IfaFederalElectionwasheldtodaytowhichpartywillyouprobablygiveyourfirstpreferencevote?Ifnotsure,whichpartyareyou

currentlyleaningtoward?

Q.Ifdontknow-Wellwhichpartyareyoucurrentlyleaningto?

Samplesize=1,923respondents

Firstpreference/leaningto Election21Aug10

4weeks

ago

27/2/12

2weeks

ago

12/3/12

Lastweek

19/3/12

Thisweek

26/3/12

Liberal 46% 46% 45% 45%

National 3% 3% 3% 3%

TotalLib/Nat 43.6% 49% 49% 48% 47%

Labor 38.0% 32% 31% 32% 34%Greens 11.8% 11% 10% 11% 10%

Other/Independent 6.6% 8% 10% 9% 9%

2PP Election

21Aug10

4weeks

ago

2weeks

ago

Lastweek Thisweek

TotalLib/Nat 49.9% 56% 57% 56% 54%

Labor 50.1% 44% 43% 44% 46%

NB.Thedataintheabovetablescomprise2-weekaveragesderivedfromthefirstpreference/leaningtovotingquestions.Respondents

whoselectdontknowarenotincludedintheresults.Thetwo-partypreferredestimateiscalculatedbydistributingthevotesoftheother

partiesaccordingtotheirpreferencesatthe2010election.


4/14

TheEconomy-HeadingintheRight/WrongDirection

Q.Overall,fromwhatyouhavereadandheard,doyouthinktheAustralianeconomyisheadingintherightdirectionorthewrongdirection?

17May10

(Post2010budget)

9May11

(Post2011budget)

4Jul11 26Mar12 Vote

Labor

Vote

Liberal/National

Vote

Greens

Therightdirection 51% 45% 37% 36% 65% 19% 47%

Thewrongdirection 25% 29% 43% 41% 15% 64% 23%

Dontknow 24% 25% 20% 22% 21% 17% 30%

36%ofrespondentsthinkthatAustraliaseconomyisheadingintherightdirection41%thinkitisheadinginthewrongdirection.Opinions

havechangedlittlesincethisquestionwasaskedinJulylastyear-rightdirectionhasdropped1%andwrongdirectiondropped2%.

65%ofLaborvoters,19%ofLiberal/Nationalvotersand47%ofGreensvotersthinktheeconomyisheadingintherightdirection.


5/14

PartyBestatHandlingEconomy

Q.WhichpartydoyouthinkwouldbebestathandlingtheAustralianeconomyintheinterestsofyouandpeoplelikeyou?

4Jul11 26Mar

12

Vote

Labor

Vote

Lib/Nat

Vote

GreensTheLaborParty 26% 29% 76% 1% 39%

TheLiberalParty 43% 41% 2% 89% 7%

Nodifference 23% 20% 14% 7% 45%

Dontknow 8% 10% 7% 4% 9%

41%(down2%sinceJulylastyear)thinktheLiberalPartywouldbebestathandlingtheAustralianeconomyintheirinterestsand29%(up

3%)nominatedtheLaborParty.20%thinkthereisnodifference.

Thereweresignificantdifferencesbyincome-thoseearningunder$600pwsplit38%Labor/30%Liberalwhilethoseearningover$1,600pwfavouredtheLiberalParty49%to23%Labor.


6/14

TheEconomy

Q.Overthenext12monthsdoyouthinkeconomicconditionsinAustraliawillgetbetter,getworseorstaymuchthesame?

1Dec08

15Jun09

5Oct09

28Jun10

18Oct10

4April11

4Jul11

3Oct11

26Mar1 VoteLabor

VoteLib/Nat

VoteGreens

Totalbetter 21% 43% 66% 33% 40% 27% 22% 16% 25% 42% 17% 26%

Totalworse 61% 37% 15% 31% 30% 37% 49% 58% 46% 29% 60% 37%

Getalotbetter 2% 5% 8% 5% 6% 4% 3% 2% 3% 5% 2% 1%

Getalittlebetter 19% 38% 58% 28% 34% 23% 19% 14% 22% 37% 15% 25%

Getalittleworse 45% 28% 11% 23% 20% 27% 31% 41% 31% 25% 36% 34%

Getalotworse 16% 9% 4% 8% 10% 10% 18% 17% 15% 4% 24% 3%

Staymuchthesame 13% 17% 15% 30% 24% 27% 25% 22% 21% 24% 19% 26%

Noopinion 5% 3% 4% 7% 6% 8% 4% 4% 7% 4% 4% 12%

Confidenceintheeconomicoutlookhasstrengthenedwiththepercentageofrespondentsbelievingconditionstobegettingbetter

increasing9pointsto25%,from16%inOctoberlastyear.Thosebelievingthateconomicconditionswillgetworseoverthenext12months

hasfallen12pointsfrom58%to46%.

Laborvotersareoptimisticoverall-42%better/29%worse.Coalitionvotersarethemostpessimistic,with60%believingthatthingwillget

worseoverthenext12monthsandonly17%better.

Therewaslittledifferenceacrossincomegroups.


7/14

Personalfinancialsituation

Q,Overthenext12monthsdoyouthinkyourpersonalfinancialsituationwillgetbetter,getworseorstaymuchthesame?

28Jun

10

18Oct

10

4April

11

4Jul

11

3Oct

11

26M ar12 Vot e

Labor

Vote

Lib/Nat

Vote

Greens

Totalbetter 29% 33% 32% 28% 24% 28% 34% 25% 36%

Totalworse 31% 29% 31% 36% 41% 37% 29% 42% 34%

Getalotbetter 5% 6% 7% 5% 4% 5% 5% 4% 14%

Getalittlebetter 24% 27% 25% 23% 20% 23% 29% 21% 22%

Getalittleworse 21% 21% 22% 23% 27% 27% 22% 30% 27%

Getalotworse 10% 8% 9% 13% 14% 10% 7% 12% 7%

Staymuchthesame 37% 32% 32% 32% 32% 29% 32% 31% 25%

Noopinion 4% 5% 5% 3% 3% 5% 5% 2% 5%

28%(up4%sinceOctoberlastyear)ofrespondentsbelievethattheirpersonalfinancialsituationwillgetbetterinthenext12monthsand

37%worse(down4%).29%(down3%)expectittostaymuchthesame.However,theseresultsareverysimilartothoseofJuly2011.

Greensvoters(36%better)andLaborvoters(34%)arethemostlikelytobelievethattheirpersonalfinancialsituationwillgetbetterover

thenext12months,whereasCoalitionvotersarethemostlikelytobelievethattheirswillgetworse(42%).

Peopleonlowerincomesweremorepessimisticabouttheirpersonalfinancialoutlook-thoseearningunder$600perweeksplit22%

better/49%worse-comparedtothoseearningmorethan$1,600pwwhosplit36%better/30%worse.


8/14

Jobsecurity

Q.Howconcernedareyouthatyouorsomememberofyourimmediatefamilywilllosetheirjobinthenextyearorso:veryconcerned,

somewhatconcerned,ornotatallconcerned?

8Jun

09

5Oct

09

28Jun

10

18Oct

10

4Apr

11

4Jul

11

3Oct

11

26Mar

12

Vote

Labor

Vote

Lib/Nat

Vote

Greens

Totalconcerned 52% 49% 43% 40% 43% 45% 47% 49% 43% 55% 34%

Veryconcerned 13% 14% 9% 11% 11% 13% 14% 13% 9% 16% 8%

Somewhatconcerned 39% 35% 34% 29% 32% 32% 33% 36% 34% 39% 26%

Notatallconcerned 35% 40% 38% 42% 43% 39% 37% 36% 44% 31% 51%

Dontknow 6% 6% 12% 10% 8% 8% 7% 8% 6% 7% 9%

Noemployeesinthe

immediatefamily

8% 5% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6%

Concernoverjobsecurityhasrisenslightlysincethelasttimethequestionwaspolled,increasing2pointsupfrom47%inOctober2011to49%(totalconcerned).

Inthe12monthsfromApril2011,totalconcernhasincreasedfrom43%to49%.

Coalitionvotersarethemostlikelytobeconcernedthattheyoramemberoftheirimmediatelyfamilywilllosetheirjobinthenextyearor

so(55%totalconcerned),whereasGreensvotersarelesslikelytobeconcerned(34%totalconcerned).

Therewerenomajordifferencesacrossincomeoragegroups-exceptfortheunder25swhere41%wereconcernedand48%notatall

concerned.


9/14

AwarenessofKony2012

Q.Overthepastcoupleofweeksavideomadebythenon-for-profitorganisationInvisibleChildrencalledKony2012wasputuponthe

internet.HaveyouheardoftheKony2012videoorcampaign?

Total Men Women Aged

18-34

Aged

35-54

Aged

55+

Yes 68% 68% 68% 78% 68% 56%

No 27% 27% 27% 19% 28% 37%

Notsure 5% 4% 5% 3% 5% 7%

68%saidtheyhadheardoftheKony2012videoorcampaign.

Youngerrespondentsweremostlikelytobeawareofthecampaign-althoughamajorityofalldemographicgroupssaidtheyhadheardofit.


10/14

InvolvementwithKony2012Campaign

Q.Whichofthefollowingapplytoyou?


18-34

Aged

35-54

Aged

55+Iwassentanemaillink,Facebookmessageortweetaboutthisfroma

friend

41% 36% 45% 63% 32% 18%

IhavereadaboutKony2012inthemedia 75% 73% 76% 73% 74% 78%

Isearchedonlineforthevideo 19% 18% 20% 31% 14% 8%

IwatchedallofthevideoKony2012 24% 20% 28% 37% 17% 15%

IwatchedpartofthevideoKony2012 29% 28% 29% 34% 26% 25%

IvisitedtheKony2012website 13% 10% 15% 17% 11% 7%

Ipledgedsupporttothecampaignonthewebsite 7% 6% 8% 10% 6% 4%

Ihavedonatedorboughtthekit 5% 6% 5% 9% 4% 3%

Isentamessagetothepolicymakersandculturalmakers 5% 6% 3% 7% 4% 3%BeforethisvideoIhadnotheardofInvisibleChildrenorJosephKony 63% 57% 70% 64% 63% 62%

Ihavepreviouslysupportedinternationalaidorganisationsor

campaigns

42% 38% 46% 43% 38% 49%

*BasedonthosewhohaveheardofKony2012

Ofthoseawareofthecampaign/video,morethanhalfsaidtheyhadwatchedallorpartoftheKony2012video-althoughthemost

commonwayofhearingaboutthecampaignwasinthemedia(75%).

63%saidtheyhadneverheardoftheInvisibleChildrenorJosephKonybeforethevideo.

However,onlyasmallproportiontookanyformofactionasaresultofthecampaign-7%pledgedsupportonthewebsiteand5%saidthey

donatedorboughtthekit.


11/14

TakingSickDays

Q.Whichofthefollowingapplytoyouoverthelast12months?


18-34

Aged

35-54

Aged

55+Ihavetakenasickie(thatis,adayoffworkwhenyouwerentreally

sick)

23% 23% 22% 30% 21% 8%

Ihavetakenadayoffsickwithoutadoctorscertificate 51% 49% 52% 55% 53% 34%

Ihavetakenadayoffsickwithadoctorscertificate 47% 49% 44% 49% 49% 33%

IhavegonetoworkwhenIwassick 81% 83% 78% 83% 82% 70%

*basedofthosewhoworkedinpaidemploymentoverthelast12months

Morethanthreetimesasmanyrespondentssaidthat,overthelast12months,theyhadworkedwhentheyweresickthanhadtakenasickie.81%saidtheyhadgonetoworkwhentheyweresickand23%saidtheyhadtakenadayoffworkwhentheywerentreallysick.

Men(83%)werealittlemorelikelythanwomen(78%)togotoworkwhentheyweresick.

Thoseagedunder35werealittlemorelikelytotakeasickie(30%)butwerealsomorelikelytogotoworkwhentheyweresick(83%).

Olderrespondentsseemtobelesslikelytogetsickatall-70%saidtheyhadworkedwhensick-andonly34%hadtakenadayoffwitha

doctorscertificateand33%withoutadoctorscertificate.


12/14

ImpactofDollaronIndustry

Q.TheAustraliandollarisnowat$1.05USandhasbeenhistoricallyhigherthanthenormalrangeof60c-80cUS.IsthehighAustraliandollar

isgoodorbadforthefollowingindustries?

Totalgood

Totalbad

Verygood

Good Neithergood

norbad

Bad Verybad

Dontknow

Miningindustry 29% 29% 10% 19% 20% 24% 5% 22%

Farming&GrazingIndustry 16% 49% 4% 12% 16% 36% 13% 19%

FinanceIndustry 38% 15% 9% 29% 25% 12% 3% 21%

ConstructionIndustry 24% 26% 4% 20% 28% 22% 4% 23%

Manufacturingindustry 15% 50% 3% 12% 14% 29% 21% 20%

RetailIndustry 23% 47% 6% 17% 14% 30% 17% 16%

AustralianTourismIndustry 20% 56% 8% 12% 10% 31% 25% 14%

Overall,respondentsthinkthatthehighAustraliandollarhasonlybeengoodforthefinanceindustry(38%good/15%bad).

Theybelievethatithasbeenparticularlybadforthetourismindustry(20%good/56%bad),themanufacturingindustry(15%/50%),the

farmingandgrazingindustry(16%/49%)andtheretailindustry(23%/47%)

Ontheminingindustry,theyweresplit29%good/29%bad.


13/14

ImpactofMiningBoomandDollar

Q.Hastheminingboomandthehighdollarbeengoodorbadfor-

Total

good

Total

bad

Very

good

Good Neither

goodnor

bad

Bad Very

bad

Dont

know

Theeconomygenerally 52% 12% 11% 41% 22% 10% 2% 15%

Jobsgenerally 42% 18% 8% 34% 26% 15% 3% 14%

Youpersonally 23% 10% 5% 18% 55% 8% 2% 10%

Amajority(52%)thinkthattheminingboomandthehighdollarhasbeengoodfortheeconomyandaremorelikelytothinkithasbeen

goodforjobs(42%good/18%bad).

61%ofLaborvoters,53%ofGreensvotersand51%ofCoalitionvotersthinkithasbeengoodfortheeconomy.

55%thinkithasbeenneithergoodnorbadforthempersonally.Forthoseonincomesover$1,600pw,32%thinkithasbeengoodforthem

personallyand9%bad.


14/14

AppendixOneMethodology

ThedatagatheredforthisreportisgatheredfromaweeklyonlineomnibusconductedbyYourSource.YourSourceisanAustraliansocial

andmarketresearchcompanyspecializinginrecruitment,fieldresearch,datagatheringanddataanalysis.YourSourceholdsInterviewerQualityControlAustralia(IQCA)accreditation,AssociationMarketandSocialResearchOrganisations(AMSRO)membershipandWorld

AssociationofOpinionandMarketingResearchProfessionals(ESOMAR)membership.SeniorYourSourcestaffholdAustralianMarketand

SocialResearchSociety(AMSRS)membershipandareboundbyprofessionalcodesofbehavior.

EssentialResearchhasbeenutilizingtheYourSourceonlinepaneltoconductresearchonaweekbyweekbasissinceNovember2007.Each

Monday,theteamatEssentialMediaCommunicationsdiscussesissuesthataretopical.Fromthereaseriesofquestionsaredevisedtoput

totheAustralianpublic.Somequestionsarerepeatedeachweek(suchaspoliticalpreferenceandsocialperspective),whileothersare

uniquetoeachweekandreflectprominentmediaandsocialissuesthatarepresentatthetime.

YourSourcehasaself-managedconsumeronlinepanelofover100,000members.Themajorityofpanelmembershavebeenrecruited

usingofflinemethodologies,effectivelyrulingoutconcernsassociatedwithonlineself-selection.YourSourcehasvalidationmethodsin

placethatpreventpanelistoveruseandensurememberauthenticity.YourSourcerandomlyselects18+malesandfemales(withtheaim

oftargeting50/50males/females)fromitsAustraliawidepanel.Aninvitationissentouttoapproximately70008000oftheirpanel

members.Theresponseratevarieseachweek,butusuallydelivers1000+responses.TheYourSourceonlineomnibusislivefromthe

TuesdaynightofeachweekandclosedonthefollowingSunday.Incentivesareofferedtoparticipantsintheformofpoints.

EMCusestheStatisticalPackagefortheSocialSciences(SPSS)softwaretoanalysethedata.ThedataisweightedagainstAustralian

BureauofStatistics(ABS)data.

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Essential Report 120326