Essentia Report 131001


2/12

The Essential Report 30/09/13 Page2/12

TheEssentialReport

Date: 1October2013

Preparedby: EssentialResearch

Datasupplied:

EssentialMediaCommunicationsisamemberof

theAssociationofMarketandSocialResearchOrganisations.

Ourresearchersaremembersof

theAustralianMarketandSocialResearchSociety


3/12


Aboutthispoll

ThisreportsummarisestheresultsofaweeklyomnibusconductedbyEssentialResearchwithdataprovidedbyYourSource.Thesurveywas

conductedonlinefromthe26th

to30th

Septemberandisbasedon1,019respondents.

Asidefromthestandardquestiononvotingintention,thisweeksreportincludesquestionsonclimatechange,thecarbontax,manufacturing,

asylumseekersboatarrivalsandtheABCC.

Themethodologyusedtocarryoutthisresearchisdescribedintheappendixonpage12.

Notethatduetorounding,notalltablesnecessarilytotal100%andsubtotalsmayalsovary.


4/12


Federalpoliticsvotingintention

Q.IfaFederalElectionwasheldtodaytowhichpartywillyouprobablygiveyourfirstpreferencevote?Ifnotsure,whichpartyareyoucurrently

leaningtoward?

Q.Ifdontknow-Wellwhichpartyareyoucurrentlyleaningto?

Samplesize=1,908respondents

Firstpreference/leaningto

Election

7Sep13

(current

figures)

4weeks

ago

2/9/13

2weeks

ago

16/9/13

Last

week

24/9/13

This

week

1/10/13

Liberal 41% 42% 41% 40%

National 3% 3% 2% 3%

TotalLib/Nat 45.5% 44% 44% 43% 43%Labor 33.4% 35% 36% 37% 36%

Greens 8.7% 11% 9% 9% 9%

Other/Independent 12.4% 10% 11% 11% 12%

2PartyPreferredElection

7Sep13

4weeks

ago

2/9/13

2weeks

ago

16/9/13

Last

week

24/9/13

This

week

1/10/13

LiberalNational 53.4% 52% 53% 51% 52%

Labor 46.6% 48% 47% 49% 48%

NB.Thedataintheabovetablescomprise2-weekaveragesderivedfromthefirstpreference/leaningtovotingquestions.Respondentswhoselect

dontknowarenotincludedintheresults.Thetwo-partypreferredestimateiscalculatedbydistributingthevotesoftheotherpartiesaccordingto

theirpreferencesatthe2010election.


5/12


Climatechange

Q.Doyoubelievethatthereisfairlyconclusiveevidencethatclimatechangeishappeningandcausedbyhumanactivityordoyoubelievethatthe

evidenceisstillnotinandwemayjustbewitnessinganormalfluctuationintheearthsclimatewhichhappensfromtimetotime?

Nov09 Dec1030May

1114Jun

15Oct

12

29Jan

1327May

Total

1Oct

Vote

Labor

Vote

Lib/Nat

Vote

Greens

Climatechangeishappeningandis

causedbyhumanactivity

53% 45% 52% 50% 48% 51% 51% 52% 67% 36% 82%

Wearejustwitnessinganormal

fluctuationintheearthsclimate

34% 36% 36% 39% 39% 40% 35% 36% 22% 51% 10%

Dontknow 13% 19% 12% 12% 13% 9% 14% 12% 10% 12% 8%

52%agreethatclimatechangeishappeningandiscausedbyhumanactivityand36%believethatwemayjustbewitnessinganormalfluctuationin

theearthsclimate.ThisisasimilarresulttowhenthisquestionwaspreviouslyaskedinMay.

Byagegroups,thoseagedunder35split61%/25%andthoseaged55+split42%/48%.Peoplewithhighereducationweremorelikelytothink

climatechangeishappeningandiscausedbyhumanactivity-thosewithuniversitydegreessplit64%/27%.


6/12


CarbonPricing

Q.DoyousupportoropposethepreviousLaborGovernmentscarbonpricingschemewhichwasintroducedinJuly2012andrequiresindustriesto

payataxbasedontheamountofcarbonpollutiontheyemit?

7Mar

201114June 19Sep 21Nov

25Jun

20122Oct

29Jan

201327May

Total

1Oct

Vote

Labor

Vote

Lib/Nat

Vote

Greens

Totalsupport 35% 38% 37% 38% 35% 38% 37% 43% 39% 65% 14% 86%

Totaloppose 48% 49% 52% 53% 54% 48% 50% 43% 47% 21% 76% 9%

Stronglysupport 9% 13% 14% 14% 14% 12% 11% 15% 15% 28% 2% 47%

Support 26% 25% 23% 24% 21% 26% 26% 28% 24% 37% 12% 39%

Oppose 19% 19% 17% 17% 19% 22% 22% 20% 23% 14% 35% 7%

Stronglyoppose 29% 30% 35% 36% 35% 26% 28% 23% 24% 7% 41% 2%

Dontknow 18% 13% 12% 10% 11% 14% 12% 13% 15% 15% 10% 4%

SupportforcarbonpricinghasdroppedsincethelasttimethequestionwaspolledinMay.Supportisdownfourpointsto39%andoppositionup

fourpointsto47%.

Lookingattheresultsbyvotingintention,Laborvoters(65%)andGreensvoters(86%)werethemostlikelytosupportcarbonpricing,whereas76%

ofCoalitionvotersopposeit.

Youngerrespondentsweremorelikelytosupportcarbonpricingthanolderrespondents-forthoseagedunder35,47%supportand34%oppose

while64%ofthoseaged55+opposeand29%support.


7/12


Climatechangepolicies

Q.ThenewLiberalGovernmentplanstodumpthecarbontaxandreplaceitwithwhattheycalladirectactionplanwhichinvolvesplantingtrees

andpayingcompaniestoreducetheircarbonpollution.Whichapproachtoclimatechangewouldyoufavour?

27May

13

TotalVote

Labor

Vote

Lib/Nat

Vote

Greens

Thecurrenttaxonthelargestpollutingcompaniestoencouragethem

toreducecarbonpollution

39% 31% 57% 9% 62%

TheLiberalspolicytoplanttreesandpaycompaniestoreduce

carbonpollution

29% 35% 13% 57% 9%

Neither 18% 16% 14% 18% 6%

Dontknow 14% 17% 16% 16% 22%

31%favourthepreviousGovernmentspolicyonaddressingclimatechangeand35%favourtheLiberalGovernmentsdirectactionplan.16%do

notsupporteitherapproach.ThisisasignificantshiftinfavouroftheLiberalsplan.

ThepreviousGovernmentsapproachhadstrongestsupportfromLaborvoters(57%),Greensvoters(62%)andpeoplewithuniversitydegrees(37%).

TheLiberalGovernmentsplanhadstrongestsupportfromLiberal/Nationalvoters(57%)andpeopleaged55+(44%).


8/12


ManufacturingIndustry

Q.ThinkingabouttheAustralianmanufacturingindustry,whichofthefollowingstatementsisclosesttoyourview?

Total

VoteLabor

VoteLib/Nat

VoteGreens

Aug2012 Jun2013

WithGovernmentsupport,Australiacanhavea

successfulmanufacturingindustry

65% 70% 64% 60% 63% 61%

ThereisnofutureformanufacturinginAustraliaand

Governmentsupportwouldbeawasteofmoney

19% 17% 23% 17% 17% 22%

Dontknow 16% 13% 14% 23% 21% 17%

65%agreethatWithGovernmentsupport,Australiacanhaveasuccessfulmanufacturingindustryand19%agreeThereisnofutureformanufacturinginAustraliaandGovernmentsupportwouldbeawasteofmoney.ThosewhothinkthatAustraliacanhaveasuccessful

manufacturingindustryhasincreased4%andthosethinkingThereisnofutureformanufacturinginAustraliahasdropped3%sincethisquestion

waslastaskedinJune.

ThosemostlikelytoagreethatAustraliacanhaveasuccessfulmanufacturingindustrywereaged45+(69%),Laborvoters(70%)andpeopleon

incomeoflessthan$1,000pw(75%).

ThosemostlikelytoagreethatThereisnofutureformanufacturinginAustraliaweremen(25%),Liberal/Nationalvoters(23%)andpeopleon

incomesover$1,600pw(28%).


9/12


ImportanceofCarManufacturing

Q.HowimportantisitthatAustraliahasacarmanufacturingindustry,evenifitcostshundredsofmillionsofdollarseachyearinGovernment

supportandsubsidies?

Total

Vote

Labor

Vote

Lib/Nat

Vote

Greens

Jun

2013

Totalimportant 58% 63% 59% 45% 52%

Totalnotimportant 30% 26% 33% 33% 35%

Veryimportant 24% 31% 22% 12% 19%

Somewhatimportant 34% 32% 37% 33% 33%

Notveryimportant 18% 16% 19% 21% 24%

Notatallimportant 12% 10% 14% 11% 11%

Dontknow 12% 12% 8% 24% 12%

58%thinkthatitisveryorsomewhatimportantthatAustraliahasacarmanufacturingindustry,evenifitcostshundredsofmillionsofdollars

eachyearinGovernmentsupportandsubsidies.30%thinkitisnotveryornotatallimportant.Thisrepresentsasignificantincreasein

importancesincethisquestionwaspreviouslyaskedinJune.

ThosemostlikelytothinkitwasimportantwereLaborvoters(63%)andpeopleonincomesunder$1,000pw(65%).

33%ofLiberal/Nationalvoters,33%ofGreensvotersand38%ofpeoplewithuniversitydegreesthoughtitnotimportant.


10/12


Informationaboutasylumseekerboatarrivals

Q.UnderpreviousGovernmentstheAustralianCustomsandBorderProtectionServicehasissuedstatementswheneveranasylum-seekerboat

arrived.DoyouapproveordisapproveoftheAbbottGovernmentsdecisiontostopprovidingthisinformationaboutthearrivalofasylum-seeker

boats?

Total

Vote

Labor

Vote

Lib/Nat

Vote

Greens

Totalapprove 39% 16% 67% 13%

Totaldisapprove 48% 75% 21% 74%

Stronglyapprove 16% 5% 31% 7%

Approve 23% 11% 36% 6%

Disapprove 16% 20% 15% 13%

Stronglydisapprove 32% 55% 6% 61%

Dontknow 13% 9% 12% 12%

39%approveoftheAbbottGovernmentsdecisiontostopprovidinginformationaboutthearrivalofasylum-seekerboatsand48%disapprove.

Viewsarestronglyassociatedwithpoliticalpartypreference-75%ofLaborvotersand74%ofGreensvotersdisapprovewhile67%of

Liberal/Nationalvotersapprove.


11/12


AustralianBuildingandConstructionCommission

Q.TheAbbottGovernmenthascommittedtore-establishtheAustralianBuildingandConstructionCommissiontoaddressclaimsofunionmilitancyin

theconstructionindustry.TheABCCspowersincludedpreventinganypersonfromrevealingtheyhadbeenforcedtogivetestimonytothe

Commission,andoverridingapersonsrighttosilence.

Doyousupportoropposere-establishingtheABCC?

Total

Vote

Labor

Vote

Lib/Nat

Vote

Greens

Totalsupport 29% 13% 52% 12%

Totaloppose 22% 39% 5% 46%

Stronglysupport 12% 4% 25% 4%

Support 17% 9% 27% 8%

Neithersupportnoroppose 23% 22% 22% 16%

Oppose 9% 13% 3% 21%

Stronglyoppose 13% 26% 2% 25%

Dontknow 25% 27% 21% 25%

29%supportre-establishingtheABCCand22%oppose.48%havenoopinioneitherway.

35%ofmensupportcomparedto23%ofwomen.


12/12


Appendix:Methodology,marginoferrorandprofessionalstandards

ThedatagatheredforthisreportisgatheredfromaweeklyonlineomnibusconductedbyYourSource.EssentialResearchhasbeenutilizingtheYourSource

onlinepaneltoconductresearchonaweek-by-weekbasissinceNovember2007.

Eachweek,theteamatEssentialMediaCommunicationsdiscussesissuesthataretopicalandaseriesofquestionsaredevisedtoputtotheAustralianpublic.

Somequestionsarerepeatedregularly(suchaspoliticalpreferenceandleadershipapproval),whileothersareuniquetoeachweekandreflectmediaandsocial

issuesthatarepresentatthetime.

YourSourcehasaself-managedconsumeronlinepanelofover100,000members.Themajorityofpanelmembershavebeenrecruitedusingoffline

methodologies,effectivelyrulingoutconcernsassociatedwithonlineself-selection.

YourSourcehasvalidationmethodsinplacethatpreventpanellistoveruseandensurememberauthenticity.YourSourcerandomlyselects18+malesandfemales

(withtheaimoftargeting50/50males/females)fromitsAustraliawidepanel.Aninvitationissentouttoapproximately70008000oftheirpanelmembers.

Theresponseratevarieseachweek,butusuallydelivers1000+interviews.Intheory,withasampleofthissize,thereis95percentcertaintythattheresultsare

within3percentagepointsofwhattheywouldbeiftheentirepopulationhadbeenpolled.However,thisassumesrandomsampling,which,becauseofnon-

responseandlessthan100%populationcoveragecannotbeachievedinpractice.Furthermore,thereareotherpossiblesourcesoferrorinallpollsincluding

questionwordingandquestionorder,interviewerbias(fortelephoneandface-to-facepolls),responseerrorsandweighting.Thebestguidetoapollsaccuracyis

tolookattherecordofthepollingcompany-howhavetheyperformedatpreviouselectionsorotheroccasionswheretheirestimatescanbecomparedwith

knownpopulationfigures.Inthelastpollbeforethe2010election,theEssentialReportestimatesoffirstpreferencevoteswereallwithin1%oftheelection

results.

TheYourSourceonlineomnibusislivefromtheWednesdaynightofeachweekandclosedonthefollowingSunday.Incentivesareofferedtoparticipantsinthe

formofpoints.EssentialResearchusestheStatisticalPackagefortheSocialSciences(SPSS)softwaretoanalysethedata.ThedataisweightedagainstAustralian

BureauofStatistics(ABS)data.

AllEssentialResearchandseniorYourSourcestaffholdAustralianMarketandSocialResearchSociety(AMSRS)membershipandareboundbyprofessionalcodes

ofbehaviour.YourSourceisanAustraliansocialandmarketresearchcompanyspecializinginrecruitment,fieldresearch,datagatheringanddataanalysis.

EssentialResearchisamemberoftheAssociationMarketandSocialResearchOrganisations(AMSRO).YourSourceholdsInterviewerQualityControlAustralia

(IQCA)accreditation,AssociationMarketandSocialResearchOrganisations(AMSRO)membershipandWorldAssociationofOpinionandMarketingResearch

Professionals(ESOMAR)membership.BothEssentialResearchandYourSourceareISOaccreditedmarketresearchcompanies.Thisresearchwasconductedin

compliancewithAS:ISO20252guidelines.

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Essentia Report 131001