ESPON 2013 Programme – Open Seminar“European Territorial Evidence for EU Cohesion Policy and Programming”

13-14 June 2012 - Aalborg, Denmark

Session 2 - Workshop 7Environmental Resources, Climate Change and Risk Prevention

A.P. Russo (URV, LP) and L. Servillo (KUL)

ATTREG Project (ESPON 2013/1/7)“The Attractiveness of Regions and Cities for Residents and Visitors” (2010-2012)

LEAD PARTNERUniversity Rovira i Virgili (ES)

PROJECT PARTNERSKU Leuven (BE)Univ. of Venice Ca’ Foscari (IT)EURICUR Rotterdam (NL)Univ. of Coimbra (PT)

Centre for Tourism Research (DK) IGSO (PL)Univ. of Ljubljana (SI)Univ. of West England (UK)

RESEARCH SUBCONTRACTORIstanbul Technological University (TR)

The ATTREG project• Objectives of the project

– Understanding the attractiveness of territorial assets to different “audiences”, looking into the 2001-07 period

– Explaining mains spatial trends, classifying regions accordingly– Investigate these relations at different spatial scales, and focusing on

idiosyncrasies and “immeasurable” facts– Developing an analytic framework to asses different policy options

• Achievements – 30+ indicators and 5 regional typologies of potential and realised

attractiveness, providing inputs for place-based attraction strategies – 8 case studies illustrating “mobilisation” mechanisms in a variety of

contexts and territorial scales– 18 scenarios to assess the potential impacts of different policy options

(“inclusive”, “smart”, “sustainable”)

What attracts whom? Outcome measure for regression analysis

Net migration rates 2001-07 Visitor arrival rates 2001-04

Total annual

flow

Flow of 15-24 year olds

Flow of 25 to 49

year olds

Flow of 50 to 64

year olds

All visitors

‘Foreign” visitors

Domes-tic

visitors

an1 Monuments index (+) * (+) *** (-) ** (+) *** (+) *** (+) ***

an2 Gross population density (+) *** (-) ***

an3 Airport rank (-) ** (-) *** (-) ** (-) ** (-) **

an4 Bedplaces in collective establishments (+) *** (+) *** (+) *** (+) *** (+) *** (+) *** (+) ***

an5 Accessibility (-) *

an6 Metropolitan areas (+) *

ec1 GDP per capita (+) * (-) *** (+) ** (+) *

ec2 Highly educated residents (+) *** (+) ** (+) *** (+) *** (+) ** (+) ***

ec3 Employment in consumption sectors (+) *** (-) ***

env1 Climate stability (-) *** (-) *** (-) *** (-) ***

env2 Share of Natura 2000 landscape designation

env3 Coastal regions (-) *** (-) ** (-) **

env4 Island regions (-) * (-) * (-) ** (-) **

in1 Satisfaction with health services

in2 Employment in public sector (-) *** (-) *** (-) *** (-) ** (-) **

in3 N. of NUTS2 regions in country (+) ** (+) ***

soc1 Share of university students registered in local universities on young age cohort

(+) *** (+) ***

soc2 Satisfaction with life (+) *** (+) **

soc3 Dependency rate (+) * (+) *** (-) ** (-) ***

Significant at 10%: *, Significant at 5%: **, Significant at 1%: ***

ANTROPIC CAPITAL

ECONOMIC-HUMAN CAPITAL

ENVIRONMENTAL CAPITAL

INSTITUTIONAL CAPITAL

SOCIO-CULTURAL CAPITAL

Δ TCI (warm cold months)

Perc. Natura 2000 sites (on total surface)

CLASS BRelatively rich in environmental assets(alone)

CLASS ARelatively rich in environmental and antropic assets - ‘too’ attractive?

CLASS CRelatively rich in economic, social and institutional assets

CLASS DA mix of everything

Regional typology by relative endowments with different forms of territorial capital

Less attractive than what expected from territorial endowments

Much less attractive than what expected from territorial endowments

As attractive as predicted through territorial endowments

More attractive than what expected from territorial endowments

Much more attractive than what expected from territorial endowments

Main policy insights from the ATTREG analysis• Climate

– Climatic conditions and stability as important pull factors for human mobility as a ‘soft’ factor driving the migration of workers in the 2000s

– Overlapping with tourism mobility has produced “excessive” attraction especially in south-western regions

– Worsening climate condition may determine a “return to normality”?– Other areas did a good job in capitalising on their climatic

attractiveness

• Environmental preservation – Adds to attractiveness especially in regions that are under-endowed of

antropic and economic capital– Good performance of sparsely populated regions in the proximity of

congested urban areas– Few regions in the East and South fully capitalised on this advantage

Environmental preservation as a “policy lever”• ATTREG’s “scenario analysis” allowed to check the effects on territorial

cohesion produced by policy bundles which relate to the inclusive, smart, sustainable policy strategies as deviations on population, GDP, “export” jobs over baseline (status quo) DEMIFER scenario predictions

• Application of “sustainable” policy bundle ...– Protection of cultural and natural environments, protection and valorisation of

cultural heritage and other visitor attractions • proxies: 1) monument index; 2) Natura 2000 protected area

– Limitation of polluting factors (particularly those related to transport, such as cost of fuel, taxation, etc.)

• proxies: 3) ranking of airports; 4) accessibility through road and ferry network

– Policies related to quality of life and capacity of retention, in particular for the younger population

• proxies: 5) life satisfaction; 6) dependency rate

• .... to “overheating” and “convergence” regions

“Sustainable” policy in convergence regions – predicted change over baseline

POPULATION P.C. GDP

“Sustainable” policy in overheating regions – predicted change over baseline

POPULATION P.C. GDP

THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION!

antonio.russo@urv.catloris.servillo@asro.kuleuven.be