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ESD.36J System & Project Management + - Copyright © 2003 James M. Lyneis Dynamics of Project Performance System Dynamics and Project Management Lecture #17, SD Class Six (10/30/00)

ESD.36J System & Project Managementdspace.mit.edu/bitstream/handle/1721.1/80702/esd...Title: Microsoft PowerPoint - ESD.36_L17_SD_PM [Read-Only] Author: cc_adutta Created Date: 2/15/2005

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  • ESD.36J System & Project Management

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    Copyright © 2003James M. Lyneis

    Dynamics of Project Performance

    System Dynamics and Project Management

    Lecture #17, SD Class Six (10/30/00)

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    Topics

    • Review Homework #4

    • Managing Project Dynamics -- A Strategic View of Project Preparation (Review of last class)

    • Managing Project Dynamics -- A Strategic View of Project Planning

    • Schedule Adjustments & Homework #6

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    Example Response

    Boss: The project must finish as close to schedule as possible. Let’s hire more people if we fall behind in order to catch up.You: My analysis shows that if we hire people to catch up, we will finish sooner than not hiring, but the project will cost a lot more …

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    Staff level increases significantly and the project costs more

    Staff Level20

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    00 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60

    Time (Month)

    Staff Level : Hiring PeopleStaff Level : No Hiring People

    Cumulative Effort Expended400

    300

    200

    100

    00 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60

    Time (Month)

    Cumulative Effort Expended : Hiring Month*PersonCumulative Effort Expended : No Hiring Month*Person

    Plan

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    Because hiring inexperienced people reduces quality …

    Quality1

    0.75

    0.5

    0.25

    00 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60

    Time (Month)

    Quality : Hiring FractionQuality : No Hiring Fraction

    Effect of Experience on Quality1

    0.9

    0.8

    0.7

    0.60 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60

    Time (Month)

    Effect of Experience on Quality : Hiring DimensionlessEffect of Experience on Quality : No Hiring Dimensionless

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    Causing us to do more total work at lower productivity

    Cumulative Work Done200

    150

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    00 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60

    Time (Month)

    Cumulative Work Done : Hiring TasksCumulative Work Done : No Hiring Tasks

    Productivity2

    1.65

    1.3

    0.95

    0.60 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60

    Time (Month)

    Productivity : Hiring Task/(Month*Person)Productivity : No Hiring Task/(Month*Person)

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    Well, okay, but why do we still finish late?

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    Because of delays in hiring people, and because we overestimate the net progress the new staff will make. Note that average productivity, the way we decide how many staff to hire, is always declining and hence we tend to underestimate staff needs.

    Average Productivity1

    0.75

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    Time (Month)

    Average Productivity : Hiring Task/(Month*Person)Average Productivity : No Hiring Task/(Month*Person)

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    Hiring generally costs more, but only makes project later if experience very low …

    Graph for Staff Level60

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    00 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60

    Time (Month)

    Staff Level : Class4 Hire 100 PeopleStaff Level : Class4 Hire 0 PeopleStaff Level : Class4 PeopleStaff Level : Class4 Hire People

    Hire, 0.0 Initial Experience, Cost =493

    No Hiring, Cost = 170

    Hire, 1.0 Initial Experience, Cost = 165

    Hire, 0.5 Initial Experience, Cost = 231

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    What is your experience?

    Software vs. hardware vs. …[Remember that in this relatively simple model

    experience is used as a proxy for a number of separate effects, including different types of experience (on the project, on similar projects, as an engineer); dilution of experienced staff time; size, and changes in the size, of the organization]

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    Topics

    • Review Homework #4

    • Managing Project Dynamics -- A Strategic View of Project Preparation (Review of last class)

    • Managing Project Dynamics -- A Strategic View of Project Planning

    • Schedule Adjustments & Homework #6

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    Typical project dynamics ...

    ProjectStaffing

    Time

    TypicalPlan

    ... Result in schedule &/or budget overrun

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    What can we do to avoid/minimize in ...

    … project preparation (design)… project planning and risk management… project execution and adaptation

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    Strategic “Project” Management Pertains to Both Preparation & Planning

    ProjectPreparation

    ProjectPlanning

    ProjectExecution

    ProjectAdaptation

    Doing the right job

    Doing the job right

    Strategic Project Management

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    How Do The Dynamics It Get Started?

    Inconsistent “mission” (scope/schedule/defects/budget)Late changes and other risks“Quality” problems

    These are characteristics of “complex”(vs. “simple”) projects

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    Mission Dimensions

    Time-to-Market/Schedule

    High, Stretch Medium Low, Slack

    Features / Scope

    Defects/ UndiscoveredRework

    Resources / Cost

    Priority & Specific Objectives

    What should the “objectives” be? How many can be “high” priority?

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    Late Project Changes Can Create the Dynamics As Well

    “Changes”20% of tasks done obsoleted at month 15Put into undiscovered rework (what needs to be redone often not completely known when “change” is made).

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    What causes project “quality” problems?

    Remember, quality as used in the model is any work done incorrectly or incompletely, regardless of cause

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    What causes project “quality” problems?

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    What are differences between “changes” and “quality” problems?

    Changes represent truly unknowable, uncontrollable, exogenous impacts (though the fact that they often happen might be planned for)

    competitor introduces a new feature...

    “Quality” problems can be anticipated and dealt with in the design and management of the project

    buffers, prototypes, process, ...

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    How might we represent these “exogenous” factors in the model?

    Availability and quality of information from others (suppliers, other projects, platforms) (time-based effect on quality)Uncertain customer requirements (fraction-complete-based effect on quality)Uncertain technology, technology leap (normal quality)Scope (esp. number of features and resultant complexity) (normal quality)Other -- type of people available, tools, organization structure (normal quality)

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    Availability and Quality of Info from Others (suppliers, other projects)

    Lookup - Table for Effect of Supplier In

    1.0

    00 20

    Quality

    Effect of Prior WorkQuality on Quality

    Normal Quality

    Effect of SchedulePressure on Quality

    Effect ofExperience on

    Quality

    Effect of SupplierInformation

    Table for Effect ofSupplier Information

    Project Time (month)

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    Graph for Staff Level20

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    00 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60

    Time (Month)

    Staff Level : Plan PeopleStaff Level : Plan Work 125 PeopleStaff Level : Changes PeopleStaff Level : Uncertain Customer Requirements People

    Plan

    Uncertain Customer Requirements

    ChangesInconsistent Mission

    … Imposed on the Class4/Homework 4 Model

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    How can we design a project that minimizes the chances of the dynamics getting started?

    Consistent mission?Reflects typical quality problems?Accounts for possible changes and risks?

    Note: Source of problem affects solution

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    Lessons from 10/10 Class on Mission

    Getting a feasible project design is the first step to avoiding adverse project dynamicsPrior projects are the best source of information with which to design a robust projectThere is an optimal tradeoff among scope, budget, schedule, and delivered defects which varies with relative priority of mission elements

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    Topics

    • Review Homework #1

    • Managing Project Dynamics -- A Strategic View of Project Preparation (Review of last class)

    • Managing Project Dynamics -- A Strategic View of Project Planning

    • Schedule Adjustments

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    Selected Issues in Project Planning

    Selecting the process modelDefining teams and responsibilitiesActivity planning and resource allocationSchedulingDetermining what to measure, monitor, exert pressure on (reward)Identifying risks and mitigation plans

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    Strategic Process & Organization Issues

    Waterfall vs. spiral vs. adaptive vs. …?Autonomous (dedicated) integrated product team vs. functional?System vs. modules?How much phase overlap and concurrency?How much to subcontract, make vs. buy?

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    Strategic Staffing Issues

    How much to rely on overtime (vs. adding staff)?Should you pay extra for experience?Generalists vs. specialists?Co-location vs. geographically dispersed?How much training?How much is it worth to reduce attrition?

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    How do you decide on a specific process?

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    The “Class6” Base Case -- Suppose

    Uncertain customer requirements cause quality problems early in the project

    normal quality = .95all other parameters as in Homework4 Model

    Assume waterfall model with functional organization structure

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    Uncertain Customer Requirements

    Fraction Complete

    Table for Effect ofUncertain Customer

    Requirements Effect of UncertainCustomerRequirements

    Fraction Perceivedto Be Complete

    Quality

    Normal Quality

    Effect of PriorWork Quality

    Effect ofExperience

    Effect of SchedulePressure

    - Table for Effect of Uncertain Custom

    1.0

    00 1.0

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    Uncertain Customer Requirements (alternative allowing easy change of max)

    Quality

    Effect of Prior WorkQuality on Quality

    Normal Quality

    Effect of SchedPressure on Qu

    Effect ofExperience on

    Quality

    Effect of UncertainCustomer

    RequirementsTable for Effect of

    Uncertain CustomerRequirements

    Fraction Perceivedto be Complete

    Maximum Effect ofUncertain Customer

    Requirements

    Elimination ofUncertainty Based on

    Progress

    up - Table for Effect of Uncertain Custom

    1

    00 1

    Fraction Complete

    Effect = (Maximum Effect of Uncertain Customer Requirements+(1-Maximum Effect of Uncertain Customer Requirements)*Elimination of Uncertainty Based on Progress)

    (0.85 in Class6 Model)

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    Elimination of Uncertainty Reflects a “Waterfall” Approach to Development -- A Sequential Series of Tasks With Milestones & Handoffs

    up - Table for Effect of Uncertain Custom

    1

    00 1

    Analysis & Requirements

    Design

    Code

    Test

    Fraction Complete

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    Graph for Staff Level20

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    Time (Month)

    Staff Level : Class 5 Uncertain Customer Requirements PeopleStaff Level : Class 5 Plan People

    Uncertain Customer Requirements

    Completion: Month 38.875 (30 planned)

    Cost: 263 Person-months (115 plan)

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    Effects on Quality ...Quality

    1

    0.75

    0.5

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    Time (Month)

    Quality : Class 5 Uncertain Customer Requirements FractionEffect of Prior Work Quality on Quality : Class 5 Uncertain Customer Requirements FractionEffect of Experience on Quality : Class 5 Uncertain Customer Requirements FractionEffect of Schedule Pressure on Quality : Class 5 Uncertain Customer Requirements FractionEffect of Uncertain Customer Requirements : Class 5 Uncertain Customer Requirements Fraction

    QualityPrior Quality

    Uncertain Customer Requirements

    Experience

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    Strategic Process & Organization Issues

    Waterfall vs. spiral vs. adaptive vs. …?Autonomous (dedicated) integrated product team vs. functional?System vs. modules?How much phase overlap and concurrency?How much to subcontract, make vs. buy?

    How do we assess what is right for our project?

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    Waterfall vs. Spiral: Spiral ...

    Pros Cons

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    Waterfall vs. Spiral: Spiral … (comments from an earlier class)

    ProsEarly feedback from

    customerDeliver parts of

    system earlierStart building

    sooner...

    ConsCosts more --

    greater scope, bigger team, more co-ordination

    Fuzzier definition of project tasks and deliverables

    Harder to define when done

    ...

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    What are the pros and cons of above alternatives in the context of the model framework?

    Direct impacts of alternatives (steady-state vs. dynamic) --

    Scopeproductivityqualityrework discoverystrength of productivity and quality effects...

    Secondary impacts (assessed via simulation)

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    Analysis & Requirements

    Design

    Code

    Test

    Analysis & Requirements

    Design

    Code

    Test

    Analysis & Requirements

    Design

    Code

    Test

    An Iterative Development Process -- How might it affect elimination of uncertainty?

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    Waterfall vs. Spiral: Sample Test

    Spiral of 3 phasesMaximum Time to Discover Rework

    Waterfall = 12 monthsSpiral = 4 months

    Continued ...

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    Waterfall vs. Spiral: Sample Test (cont.)

    Elimination of Uncertainty Based on Progress …Waterfall Spiral

    "Table for Effect of Uncertain Custome

    1

    00 1

    Fraction Complete Fraction Complete

    ??

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    Waterfall vs. Spiral: Sample Test (cont.)

    Elimination of Uncertainty Based on Progress …Waterfall Spiral

    - "Table for Effect of Uncertain Custome

    1

    00 1

    "Table for Effect of Uncertain Custome

    1

    00 1

    Fraction Complete Fraction Complete

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    How do we know these values?

    First time, you don’t ==> make educated guesses. Remember --

    Better than mental models aloneCan do sensitivities -- how bad would the scope increase have to be before Spiral was not helpful for this type of project

    Once project finishes, can get a good estimate of the impact for use in future planning

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    Waterfall vs. Spiral

    TestPlanWaterfallSpiral

    Finish Cost(person-mos)29.875 116.738.875 263.331.45 171.5

    Note: alternative process, etc. generally do not allow you to achieve an inconsistent plan, but they can improve performance along one or more mission objectives.

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    Waterfall vs. Spiral (added scope)

    TestPlanWaterfallSpiralSpiral + 10% more scopeSpiral + 20% Spiral + 30%

    Finish Cost(person-mos)29.875 116.738.875 263.331.45 171.5

    32.1 216.1

    32.625 261.233.1 307.7

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    Graph for Staff Level20

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    Time (Month)

    Staff Level : Class6 Spiral + More Scope PeopleStaff Level : Class6 Spiral PeopleStaff Level : Class6 Waterfall PeopleStaff Level : Class6 Plan People

    Plan

    WaterfallSpiral + 10% More Scope

    Spiral

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    Graph for Quality1

    0.75

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    Time (Month)

    Quality : Class6 Spiral + More Scope FractionQuality : Class6 Spiral FractionQuality : Class6 Waterfall FractionQuality : Class6 Plan Fraction

    Plan

    Waterfall

    Spiral

    Spiral + 10% More Scope

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    Graph for Undiscovered Rework40

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    Time (Month)

    Undiscovered Rework : Class6 Spiral + More Scope TaskUndiscovered Rework : Class6 Spiral TaskUndiscovered Rework : Class6 Waterfall TaskUndiscovered Rework : Class6 Plan Task

    Plan

    Waterfall

    Spiral Spiral + 10% More Scope

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    Graph for Work Done200

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    Time (Month)

    Work Done : Class6 Spiral + More Scope TaskWork Done : Class6 Spiral TaskWork Done : Class6 Waterfall TaskWork Done : Class6 Plan Task

    Plan Waterfall

    Spiral

    Spiral + 10% More Scope

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    Conclusions re. Waterfall vs. Spiral

    A spiral or similar development process can improve performance if project conditions would otherwise cause significant undiscovered reworkThe benefits of these approaches increase with the uncertainty (risk) in the development, I.e., the amount of potential reworkCautions -- alternative processes may …

    … not help for truly “exogenous” changes… involve additional scope… involve short-term implementation costs (for new processes/tools/structures)

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    Even with better processes, there are tradeoffs among the mission objectives

    TestPlanWaterfallSpiralWaterfall + Schedule = 47Spiral + Schedule = 35

    Finish Cost(person-mos)29.875 116.738.875 263.331.45 171.5

    46.5 185.7

    34.2 135.9

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    Graph for Staff Level20

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    Time (Month)

    Staff Level : Class6 Waterfall PeopleStaff Level : Class6 Spiral PeopleStaff Level : Class6 Waterfall Sched 40 No Hire PeopleStaff Level : Class6 Spiral No Hire People

    Waterfall

    Waterfall, Schedule =47

    Spiral

    Spiral, Schedule = 35

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    Strategic Process & Organization Issues

    Waterfall vs. spiral vs. adaptive vs. …?Autonomous (dedicated) integrated

    product team vs. functional?System vs. modules?How much phase overlap and concurrency?[How much to subcontract, make vs. buy?]

    How do we assess what is right for our project?

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    Autonomous Integrated Teams vs. Functional: Autonomous Teams ...

    Pros Cons

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    Autonomous Integrated Teams vs. Functional: Sample Test

    Maximum effect of uncertain customer requirements = .85Waterfall-style Elimination of Uncertain Customer RequirementsIntegrated Teams:

    Reduce Max effect of customer uncertainty to .925Reduce Maximum rework discovery time to 4 months (from 12 months)Reduce Normal productivity to .9 (from 1)

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    Graph for Staff Level20

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    Time (Month)

    Staff Level : Class6 Plan PeopleStaff Level : Class6 Waterfall PeopleStaff Level : Class6 Integrated Teams People

    Plan

    Waterfall

    Integrated Product Team

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    Graph for Quality1

    0.75

    0.5

    0.25

    00 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60

    Time (Month)

    Quality : Class6 Plan FractionQuality : Class6 Waterfall FractionQuality : Class6 Integrated Teams Fraction

    Plan

    Waterfall

    Integrated Product Team

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    Graph for Undiscovered Rework40

    30

    20

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    00 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60

    Time (Month)

    Undiscovered Rework : Class6 Plan TaskUndiscovered Rework : Class6 Waterfall TaskUndiscovered Rework : Class6 Integrated Teams Task

    Plan

    Waterfall

    Integrated Product Team

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    Autonomous Integrated Teams vs. Functional

    TestPlanWaterfall (functional)Integrated Product Team

    Finish Cost(person-mos)29.875 116.7

    38.875 263.3

    31.625 189.38

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    Conclusions re. Integrated Teams

    An integrated product team or similar organization structure can improve performance if project conditions would otherwise cause significant undiscovered reworkThe benefits of these structures increase with the uncertainty (risk), and likely project overrun with traditional development approachesCautions ...

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    Strategic Staffing Issues

    How much to rely on overtime (vs. adding staff)?

    Should you pay extra for experience?Generalists vs. specialists?Co-location vs. geographically dispersed?How much training?How much is it worth to reduce attrition?

    How do we assess what is right for our project?

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    How do we assess what is right for our project?

    Specify the direct impacts of alternatives (steady-state vs. dynamic) on --

    Scopeproductivityqualityrework discoverystrength of productivity and quality effects...

    Secondary impacts (assessed via simulation)

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    Strategic Process & Organization Issues

    Waterfall vs. spiral vs. adaptive vs. …?Autonomous (dedicated) integrated

    product team vs. functional?System vs. modules?How much phase overlap and

    concurrency?How much to subcontract, make vs. buy?

    …defer until next class?

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    Strategic Project Management

    What can we do to avoid/minimize the dynamics ... … in project preparation (design) and project planning? √ (except risk management)… in project execution and adaptation

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    Lessons

    It’s the undiscovered rework that creates problemsAlternative development processes can improve performance if project conditions would otherwise cause significant undiscovered reworkStrategic issues (process, staffing, phase overlap, etc.) involve tradeoffs -- costs as well as benefits -- that can only be evaluated in the context of their effect on the ability of the project to meet its mission objectives -- There is no one best way for all projects

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    Topics

    • Review Homework #1

    • Managing Project Dynamics -- A Strategic View of Project Preparation (Review of last class)

    • Managing Project Dynamics -- A Strategic View of Project Planning

    • Schedule Adjustments & Homework #6

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    Strategic Issues in Execution and Adaptation

    ProjectPreparation

    ProjectPlanning

    ProjectExecution

    ProjectAdaptation

    Doing the right job

    Doing the job right

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    Selected Issues in Execution & Adaptation

    Managing Risks and Changes:Schedule adjustments Staffing strategies

    A Strategic View – Deciding in advance the best way to handle problems if

    they arise

  • ESD.36J System & Project Management

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    Schedule Adjustments

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    Staffing and Scheduling Are Driven By the Same Basic Structure ...

    Indicated CompletionDate Based on

    Progress

    Average Productivity

    Estimated Cost to Complete

    Staff Level Required

    Time Remaining

    Mimimum Time toFinish Work

    Estimated Cost toComplete Based on

    Progress

    Budgeted Cost toComplete

    Weight onProgress-Based

    Estimates

    Table for Weight onProgress-Based

    Estimates

    Person-Months

    Staff Level

    Hiring and/or Schedule Slip are governed by “Willingness to Hire” and “Willingness to Slip”

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    Schedule Slip Formulation

    ScheduledCompletionDate

    IndicatedCompletionDate Basedon Progress

    PerceivedReal

    CompletionDateSchedule

    SlipTable forSchedule

    Slip

    Willingnessto Slip

    Time to Slip Schedule

    Change in Schedule

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    Schedule Slip Formulation (cont.)

    Scheduled Completion Date = Integral of Schedule Slip over Time to Slip Schedule [Dimensions -- Month]Schedule Slip = Willingness to Slip * MAX(0,(Perceived Real Completion Date -Scheduled Completion Date)) * Table for Schedule Slip [Dimensions -- Months]

    The desired schedule slip is determined by the difference between perceived real completion date and the current schedule. Willingness to slip and table for schedule slip allow you to control the degree and timing of any slip.

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    Schedule Slip Formulation (cont.)

    Perceived Real Completion Date = SMOOTHI(Indicated Completion Date Based on Progress, 1, Scheduled Completion Date) [Dimensions -- Month]

    Perceived real completion date reflects the time required to perceive changes in project conditions, using VENSIM's SMOOTHI function.

    Indicated Completion Date Based on Progress -- see schedule pressure

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    Schedule Slip Formulation (cont.)Willingness to Slip Schedule -- varies between 0 and 1; a value of 0 means no schedule slip, staff up to get the project done; a value of 1 means slip the schedule as indicated to allow the current staff to get the job done

    Table for Schedule Slip -- a function of Fraction Perceived to be Complete. When Willingness is set above 0, allows you to control when in the project the slip occurs.

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    Graph Lookup - Table for Schedule Slip

    1

    00 1.5

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    In the face of a projected schedule overrun, is it better to slip as soon as you know it or wait and see if corrective actions will help?

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    Homework #6 has been posted, due 11/14

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    What causes project “quality” problems?

    Endogenous feedback effectsExogenous factors (“normal quality”)

    Availability and quality of information from others (suppliers, other projects, platforms) Uncertain customer requirementsUncertain technology, technology leapScope (esp. number of features and resultant complexity)Other -- type of people available, tools, organization structure