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8/10/2019 Esa Saarinen_ Heidelber PMI Indicators - Market Trends 2020 FINAL
1/27
HeidelbergerDruckmaschinenA
G-
21.
Oktober2014
PMI Trends 2020
Esa Saarinen BaltPrint Conference
October 2014 Vilnius
8/10/2019 Esa Saarinen_ Heidelber PMI Indicators - Market Trends 2020 FINAL
2/27
HeidelbergerDruckmaschinenA
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21.
Oktober2014
PMI Trends 2020
1) Source: Global Insight
2) Source: Heidelberg estimate, industry statistics, PIRA, RISI, PRIMIR, Global Insight
3) Source: Heidelberg estimate , ZenithOptimedia
4) Source: Heidelberg estimate, Risi
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Significant differences () to previous forecast requires
downward correction of PMI Supply Market
Slide: 2
GDP growth1) Print advertising exp. Growth3)
PPV growth2) RISI paper growth4)
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
-0.4% -0.2% -0.1% +0.2% +0.3%
latest Forecast
previous Forecast
+0.2% +0.3%
-1.5% -1.1% -0.8% -1.0% -0.6%-0.8% -0.4%
-1.6% -1.0% -1.6% -2.0% -3.2%-2.6% -3.9%
-3.0% -0.5% -0.2% -0.9% -1.2%-1.2% -1.3%
5)
5) Forecast June 2014 vs April 2013
6) Forecast Mai 2014 vs April 2013
7) Forecast June 2013 vs. Dec. 2012
8) Forecast Febr. 2014 vs Nov. 2012
6)
7)
8)
8/10/2019 Esa Saarinen_ Heidelber PMI Indicators - Market Trends 2020 FINAL
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HeidelbergerDruckmaschinenA
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PMI Trends 2020
Despite further penetration of electronic media the worldwide PPV will
grow moderately
406 407 401 399 410420
435 444 441406 413 414 410 407
427
0,0
50,0
100,0
150,0
200,0
250,0
300,0
350,0
400,0
450,0
500,0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 20
R
ea
lPrin
tVo
lume
inbn.
*
CAGR 00-13: 0,0%
Global PPV, in BillionActual 2000-2013; Forecast 2014-2020
CAGR 13-20: 0,7%
Source: Heidelberg estimate June 2014, industry statistics, PIRA, RISI, PRIMIR, Global InsightBase Year 2009
Slide: 3
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HeidelbergerDruckmaschinenA
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Oktober2014
PMI Trends 2020
Attractive growth in Print Production Volume confirms the importance of
the developing markets
0
40
80
120
160
200
North America Central Europe Asia/Pacific Eastern Europe Latin America Middle East /
Africa
2015
2013
Print Production Volume (PPV) in billionby region
Actual 2013; Forecast 2015; 2020
2020
Rea
lPrin
tVo
lume
in
bn.
*
CAGR
13 -15
-1,0%
CAGR
13 - 20
-1,0%
CAGR
13 -15
-1,4%
CAGR
13- 20
-1,2%
CAGR
13 -15
2,3%
CAGR
13 - 20
2,5%
CAGR
13 -15
1,3%
CAGR
13 - 20
1,7%
CAGR
13 -15
1,2%
CAGR
13 - 20
1,8%
CAGR
13 -15
3,1%
CAGR
13 - 20
3,2%
Source: Heidelberg estimate June 2014, industry statistics, PIRA, RISI, PRIMIR, Global Insight
Base Year 2009Slide: 4
8/10/2019 Esa Saarinen_ Heidelber PMI Indicators - Market Trends 2020 FINAL
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HeidelbergerDruckmaschinenA
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PMI Trends 2020
Outlook on print production volume in key end markets: slow growth
in publishing and commercial and robust growth in packaging
Development of the global markets until 2020 (PPV inbn)
2013 2015 2020
Commercials Packaging Publishing & others
119,9 118,2 115,7
110,1 117,2 138,4
176,6 174,7
172,9
406,6410,1
427,0
3,2% p.a.
0,8% p.a.
-0,5% p.a.
-0,7% p.a.
0,4% p.a.
3,4% p.a.
-0,2% p.a.
-0,4% p.a.
Only
Packaging
will have
growth
potential
Source: Heidelberg estimate June 2014, industry statistics, PIRA, RISI, PRIMIR, Global Insight
Base Year 2009
Packaging: Labels, Folding Carton, Flexible Packaging Slide: 5
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PMI Trends 2020
0
100.000
200.000
300.000
400.000
500.000
2000 2005 2007 2009 2013 2015 2020
Development of Printing Process Sharesby Print Production Volume (Mio*)
Actual 2000-2013; Forecast 2014-2020
Source: Heidelberg estimate June 2014, industry statistics, PIRA, Jakkoo Pyry, Primir (GAMIS), Global Insight
Digital: Only Digital Production Devices are taken into consideration
*Base Year 2009
Web
Offset:
Digital:
Other:
Annual Growth
(2013-2020)
Total: 0,7%
Prin
tPro
duc
tion
Volu
me
(Mio
.*)
Flexo:
On the technology side, digital printing is growing strongly, but
from a small base
Forecast
- 2,7%
Sheetfed
Offset:- 0,6%
8,5%
2,6%
- 1,3%
Slide: 6
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PMI Trends 2020
There will be a lot fewer printing companies around the world The remaining traditional print companies can be split into high productivity, highly
industrialized organizations, or small niche specialists.
Altogether they are well-organized, highly industrialized print companies with high
levels of automation and efficiencies.
But: Most print companies are gaining more revenues from non ink-on-paper activities!
Therefore some have become broader marketing service support companies, maybe
as groups with other service providers.
In 2020 printers will provide an online content version, artwork asset management
services, data management and analytics, mailing, warehousing and stock
management, distribution and logistics, campaign management and execution.
Specialists are handling more activities for customers, stepping in to increase their
share of the value chain. Magazine printers for example will handle mailing at the end
of a binding line with direct addressing or labelling. Others will handle the subscription
services, mailing copies and producing reminders with the magazine, or handling
renewal campaigns.
Printing in 2020
Slide: 7
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PMI Trends 2020
The traditional print products will still be to the fore, but many will be enhanced withadditional functionality.
Print will get more interactive with links to social media and shared communities to
identify new prospects through better analytics.
Print is just one part of the communications mix, used when it gives good returns
Printed packaging volume still forecast to grow
In the emerging markets growing urbanization and prosperity, investment in housing and
construction, the development of retail chains, and increasing healthcare and cosmetics
sectors will further increase packaging demand
The growth of packaging in industrialized countries is being driven by the trend towards
smaller households and accompanying rise in demand for more, smaller pack sizes, the
increasing requirement for convenience among consumers, rising health awareness
among ageing consumers and the growing number of men interested health and beautyproducts.
Additionally packaging will be affected by the growing awareness of environmental
issues and the adoption of new regulatory requirements, increasing demand for brand
differentiation and also by new developments in packaging materials.
Digital is growing fast from a very low base for short runs and promotional packs.
Printing in 2020
Slide: 8
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PMI Trends 2020
Sheetfed Sheetfed offset remains the dominant printing technology in the world in terms of print
volume, although its peak market share has passed as digital continues to grow.
We will see a smaller number of presses sold, but many of them will provide very high
productivity with high levels of automation.
Presses will be easier to operate with, therefore intelligence will be built into the press
with a library of potential setting possibilities implemented.
Productivity improvement services will help to identify areas to improve by analyzing
real performance and compare that with peers.
High-speed long perfector sheetfed presses with high levels of automation are
increasingly attacking the short run web offset market.
Web Offset
Web press manufacturers looking at packaging as a potential market, using the
advantages of offset against gravure and flexo alternatives (e.g. Sunday Vpak).
Anyway, this will be a small niche market.
Web offset will face direct competition from inkjet at the lower end in magazines and
catalogues.
Key trends in print production methods
Slide: 9
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PMI Trends 2020
Flexo
Developments in flexo platemaking have greatly improved quality, allowing valid
comparisons with offset and gravure. Further technology developments like direct plate
exposure, more unit control and automation will secure Flexos position in the
packaging market.
Gravure
Under increased pressure from offset as print runs decline, and flexo as quality is
improved
Most gravure is aimed at packaging and labels. The number of presses that will be
sold in the publishing segment should be very limited.
Key trends in print production technologies
Slide: 10
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PMI Trends 2020
Digital
VDP, very short turnaround time and new applications (often in combination with new
business models) are the primarily drivers for digital print
High speed inkjet will become mainstream
The range of products will increase: liquid toner electrophotography, digital nanography
and product offerings in B2/B1
Key trends in print production methods
Slide: 11
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PMI Trends 2020
A worldwide a robust growth is expected
Real GDP ForecastGrowth p.a.
Real GDP Forecast
Source: Global Insight (June 2014)real: Inflation adjusted
Global real GDP forecast European real GDP forecast
American real GDP forecast Asian & ROW real GDP forecast
Growth p.a.
Growth p.a.Growth p.a.
Real GDP Forecast
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
Latin America
North America Africa /
Middle East
Asia / Pacific
Developing
World
Industrialized
Real GDP Forecast Real GDP Forecast
Eastern Europe
Western Europe
Slide: 12
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PMI Trends 2020
Significant decrease in print advertising expenditures increases the
pressure on the future development of the PPV
Global Advertising Expenditures [in bn.] Print Share Development
26% 23%15%
23% 20% 15%
74% 77% 85%
77% 80%85%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
183
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
CY 95 CY 00 CY 05 CY 10 CY 15 CY 20
Electronic Media
Industrialized
Developing/Emerging
CY13 CY15 CY20 CY13 CY15 CY20
204233
6587
105
source: ZenithOptimediaJune 13, FR51 estimate
*Base Year: 2012
Industrialized
countries
Developing
countries
Slide: 13
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PMI Trends 2020
Paper industry forecasts are generally consistent with our
print forecasts
0,0
20,0
40,0
60,0
80,0
North America Central Europe Asia/Pacific Eastern Europe Latin America Middle East /
Africa
2015
2013
Graphic Paper Consumption in million tonsby Region
Actual 2013; Forecast 2015; 2020
2020
Grap
hicPaper
Consump
tio
ninm
ill.tons
CAGR
13 -15
-3,2
CAGR
13 - 20
-3,1%
CAGR
13 -15
-3,9%
CAGR
13 - 20
-3,9%
CAGR
13 -15
1,5%
CAGR
13 - 20
1,2%
CAGR
13 -15
0,9%
CAGR
1320
0,8%
CAGR
13 -15
1,2%
CAGR
13 - 20
1,2%
CAGR
13 -15
3,0%
CAGR
13 - 20
3,1%
Source: FR-51 EstimateFeb 2014, RISI
Slide: 14
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PMI Trends 2020
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
GDP & PPVIndustrialized Markets GDP & PPVDeveloping / Emerging Markets
Real GDP
CAGR: 2,2%
Real PPV
CAGR: -1,2%
Real GDP
CAGR: 2,3%
Real PPV
CAGR: -1,1%
2013- 20202013 - 2015
Real PPV
CAGR: 4,0%
Forecast
Real PPVCAGR: 4,2%
Real GDP
CAGR: 5,3%
2013- 2020
Real GDP
CAGR: 4,6%
2013 - 2015
Forecast
Print Production Volume w/o print for manufacturing, corrugated packaging, metal packaging, glass packaging; real PPV base year is 2009
Index
(2000 = 100)
Index
(2000 = 100)
Source: Heidelberg estimate June 2014, industry statistics, PIRA, RISI, PRIMIR, Global Insight
In CY 15 might be the starting point of a decoupling in the
developing markets
Slide: 15
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PMI Trends 2020
Approximately 70% of the global PPV is still produced in
industrialized countries
PPVIndustrial Markets [in mill.] PPVDeveloping Markets [in mill.]
343
302
282 276262
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
CY 07 CY 09 CY 13 CY 15 CY 20
Source: Heidelberg estimate June 2014, industry statistics, PIRA, RISI, PRIMIR, Global Insight
Base Year 2009
101 104
124134
165
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
CY 07 CY 09 CY 13 CY 15 CY 20
Slide: 16
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PMI Trends 2020
Print volume per capita varies significantly by region
251
338
276
253
19
47
31 11
050
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
world average:
53 per capita
Euro
Annual per capita print production volume by region
(2013)
Industrialized Developing / Emerging
Source: Heidelberg estimate June 2014, industry statistics, PIRA, RISI, PRIMIR, Global Insight
Base Year 2009Slide: 17
PMI T d 2020
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PMI Trends 2020
120bn.
110bn.
177bn.
2013
Newspaper24,1%
Magazines33,4%
Specialty24,1%
BookPrinting18,4%
Advertising33,0%
Gen.Commercial
35,9%
Catalogs11,2%
Financial&Legal5,9%
Converted4,9% Other
9,1%
FlexiblePackaging
44,7%Folding
Boxes37,8%
Labels &
Tags17,5%
Heidelberg is focusing its activities on commercial and packaging
print sectors
Global Print Production Volume (bn) Printing technology by end market
407 bn.
Commercial
Packaging
Publishing &
Others
Sheetfed-Offset28,7%
Web- Offset46,7%
Digital13,3%
Other11,3%
Sheetfed-Offset
44,4%
Web- Offset27,6%
Digital18,3%
Other9,7%
Sheetfed-Offset33,2%
Flexo40,0%
Digital2,4%
Other24,4%
Source: Heidelberg estimate June 2014, industry statistics, PIRA, RISI, PRIMIR, Global Insight
Base Year 2009Slide: 18
PMI T d 2020
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Approx. 70% of the global PPV is produced in industrialized countries
PPVIndustrial Markets [in mil]
GDPGrowth 2,3% p.a. (20132020)
PPVDeveloping Markets [in mil]
GDPGrowth 5,3% p.a. (20132020)
207 199178
7577
83
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
89 94110
3540
55
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
CY 13 CY 15 CY 20 CY 13 CY 15 CY 20
Source: Heidelberg estimate June 2014, industry statistics, PIRA, RISI, PRIMIR, Global Insight
Base Year 2009
Commercials Packaging Commercials Packaging
- 2,1%
p.a.- 2,1%
p.a.
1,5%
p.a.1,5%
p.a.
2,8%
p.a.
3,2%
p.a.
6,8%
p.a.
6,7%
p.a.
282276
262
124134
165
Packaging growth in line with avg. GDPPackaging growth below avg. GDP
Slide: 19
PMI T d 2020
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Process Share Worldwide Process Share Emerging Markets
Sheetfed Web Flexo Digital Others
Sheetfed Offset will continue to be the major print technology -
Digital is growing, but from a small base
Source: Heidelberg estimate June 2014, industry statistics, PIRA, Jakkoo Pyry, Primir (GAMIS), Global Insight
Base Year 2009
37% 36% 34%
26% 24%20%
12% 13%14%
13% 15% 21%
12% 12% 11%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
CY 2013 CY 2015 CY 2020
42% 41% 39%
25% 23%20%
10% 10%11%
11% 13% 18%
13% 12% 12%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
CY 2013 CY 2015 CY 2020
Slide: 20
PMI T d 2020
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Worldwide PPV is stable, Sheetfed Offset is the most suitable
printing technology (trade-off between flexibility and productivity)
Global & SFO PPV inbn
406 407 401 399410
420435
444 441
406 413414 410 407
427
162 162 159 157 161 164168 171 168
154 156 155 152 150 143
0
100
200
300
400
500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2020e
SFO PPVGlobal PPV
Source: Heidelberg estimate June 2014, industry statistics, PIRA, RISI, PRIMIR, Global InsightBase Year 2009
Packaging: Labels, Folding Carton, Flexible Packaging Slide: 21
PMI Trends 2020
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PMI Trends 2020
400%
300%
200%
100%
1980 20001990 2010
year
high
low
faster
Inkjet
Electro-photography
Offset
Cos
t
Qualitative Technology ComparisonDevelopment of Performance- Total Cost
Heidelberg has been monitoring digital imaging technologies for
years
HDM Orig inal Prognosis
(2000)
Uncertainty
Heidelberg Conf ident ia l
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Document Printing
Packaging & Label
PoS
Advertising
Commercial Short run
and VDP
23
Not in focus
Not in focus
and will leverage key partner(s) to serve its main markets
Market ElectrophotograhpyDry Toner
ElectrophotographyLiquid Toner
Ink jet
Ricoh
ResellerHDM +
Partner (s)
Heidelberg Conf idenital
PMI Trends 2020
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PMI Trends 2020
Heidelberg Digital
Strategy
Next steps- Heidelberg Digital Printing
Commercial Label & FoilFolding
Carton
Technology
Partner
Sales &
Service
Channel
Product
Offering
GallusHeidelberg
Fujifilm
Peak Peformance
RolltoRoll
Digital Label Press
Peak Peformance
Sheet
Perfecting
Heidelberg Conf ident ia l
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Price
Entry
Performance
Performance
Peak
Value
Result
Commercial
Sheetfed
Folding
Carton
Labels &
FoilsMar
ket
Price/Performance Segmentation Digital
Future
Heidelberg Conf ident ia l
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26
Heidelberg Positioning
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Gallus DCS 340
Configuration @ Gallus Innovation Days
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GallusInnovationDays,
PressE
vent,22.
September2014,
+
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