Erzsébet Bukodi

Is there a spill-over effect?

Evidence on the relationship between work history and marriage dissolution from a British birth cohort studyErzsébet Bukodi

Eighth Conference of European Network for the Sociological and Demographic Study of Divorce, 14-16 October, 2010, University of Valencia

CLS is an ESRC Resource Centre based at the Institute of Education

Motivation

A substantial literature has by now developed showing the lasting adverse effects on individuals’ work histories of entering the labour market at a time of depressed economic conditions (e.g. Gregg, 2001; Bukodi and Goldthorpe, 2009)

Worklife instability has spill-over effects in that members of a cohort with such experience are more likely than members of other cohorts to postpone their first marriages and to choose cohabitation as a preliminary or even an alternative to marriage (Bukodi, 2010)

Any spill-over effects of instabilities early in the working life on marital dissolution?

Objective

To investigate whether or not men and women who experienced instabilities of their occupational and employment histories early in their working lives – before their marriages were formed – are more likely than their counterparts without such experience to dissolve their marriages.

If so, what might be the most important factors to explain this effect.

Only few empirical studies so far … The majority of these studies have been

concerned with the effects of unemployment rather than those of detailed occupational and employment trajectories (Starkey, 1996; Jalovaara, 2003; Hansen, 2005; Lampard, 1994; Blekesaune, 2008; Jensen and Smith, 1990).

There are only three studies that extend research into the broader socio-economic domain, and investigate changes in couples’ economic circumstances and in husband’s and wives’ work characteristics during the marriage on the risk of marital dissolution (Hoffman and Duncan, 1995; Weiss and Willis, 1997; Boheim and Ermisch, 2001)

Why to expect any effect of work histories before marriage on marital dissolution?

The ‘selection hypothesis’:

The effect might be the result of selection effects in that unstable employment and occupational histories are tended to be experienced by individuals with characteristics that are also conducive to marriage dissolution (e.g. some individuals might find it rather easy to leave both unhappy partnerships and undesirable jobs).

Why to expect any effect of work histories before marriage on marital dissolution? ...

The ‘experience hypothesis’:

The experience of volatile work histories early in the life-course itself affects adversely the quality of marriage and in turn leads to separation.

Why?

A potential mediator:low level of psychological well-being

Highly unstable employment and occupational histories early in the working life

Failing to establish an ‘occupational identity’ for the future

diminished psychological well-being lower level of ‘social skills’

an elevated risk of marital dissolution

Another potential mediator:lack of economic resources


Being unsuccessful in economic capital acquisition in a longer run

greater economic strain on couples


Volatile work histories among men are expected to create a greater strain on families (men fail to fulfil the role of the main provider of family economic resources)

Another potential mediator:marital heterogamy


Negative assortative mating on economic attributes (e.g. on occupational earnings)

having less complementarities between spouses in consumption and leisure preferences

the ‘insurance function’ of marriage (against sudden economic shocks) is less apparent

worse mutual understanding between spouses


Data: A British Birth Cohort Study The National Child Development Study

(NCDS)

· all children born in GB in one week in 1958

· 8 main sweeps up to 2008 (age 50)

I have created joint partnership-job histories, coded on a person-month basis.

In this paper I consider life-course histories up to age 46.

Overview on partnership histories

141516181920212223252627282930323334353637394041424344460%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%80%85%90%95%

100%

Marital status through the life-course - men

Mar

ital s

tatu

s, %

141414141414151515151515151515151515161616161616161616161616171717171717171717171717181818181818181818181818191919191919191919191919202020202020202020202020212121212121212121212121222222222222222222222222232323232323232323232323242424242424242424242424252525252525252525252525262626262626262626262626272727272727272727272727282828282828282828282828292929292929292929292929303030303030303030303030313131313131313131313131323232323232323232323232333333333333333333333333343434343434343434343434353535353535353535353535363636363636363636363636373737373737373737373737383838383838383838383838393939393939393939393939404040404040404040404040414141414141414141414141424242424242424242424242434343434343434343434343444444444444444444444444454545454545454545454545464646464646460%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%80%85%90%95%

100%

Marital status through the life-course - women

Mar

ital s

tatu

s, %

Never livedin partnership

Never livedin partnership

Living in 1st

marriageLiving in 1st

marriage

First marriagedissolved

First marriagedissolved

Never married,Living in cohabitation Never married,

Living in cohabitation

The focus of this study is on ...

first marriages formed between ages 16 and 34

rates of marriage dissolution in the first 12 years of the partnership, up to age 46

the dependent variable is defined as the conditional probability of the dissolution of a first marriage

the end of living together is counted, regardless of whether there was an official divorce

the risk period starts in the month in which the couple began living together, regardless of whether they started out as married or unmarried

Key explanatory variables: occupational histories

Defined in terms of moving upwards and downwards on an occupational earnings scale (Bukodi-Dex-Goldthorpe, forthcoming), over the period from LM entry and up to month t-1:

Stable: an individual has not experienced any occupational mobility up to month t-1 of his life history.

Unstable: an individual has experienced either one or more upward occupational moves but no downward move or one or more downward occupational moves but no upward move or only one upward and one downward move up to month t-1.

Highly unstable: an individual has experienced either more than one upward and at least one downward moves or more than one downward and at least one upward move up to month t-1.

Two sets of occupational history variables: Cumulative occupational histories before the first marriage was

formed. Cumulative occupational histories within marriage.

Fraction of the cumulative duration of time spent

out of employment between leaving full-time education and month t-1.

Fraction of the cumulative duration of time spent in part-time employment between LM entry and month t-1.

Two sets of employment history variables:

Cumulative employment histories before the first marriage was formed.

Cumulative employment histories within marriage.

Key explanatory variables: employment histories

Key explanatory variables: recent changes in work characteristics Recent changes in occupational status:

Summarises the average month-to-month occupational status change over the past 12 months; positive values indicate upward mobility and negative values indicate downward mobility.

Recent changes in employment status: The amount of time spent in non-employment (part-time

employment) over the past 12 months.

Current occupational earnings level: The level of the current or most recent job, expressed in

terms of five broad levels of occupational earnings scores, each covering approximately 20 per cent of the total distribution of scores.

Control variables

Age at marriage Cohabitation experience before marriage Number of children fathered/mothered both before

and within marriage Educational attainment Cognitive ability in childhood A score for academic motivation in childhood Scores for personality characteristics in

childhood – two factors: scores on ‘aggressive’ and ‘withdrawn’ scales

A dummy for parents’ had divorced Duration-year dummies

Results: the effects of work histories on marital dissolution

Models include all control variables. Robust standard errors are applied.** Significant at p < 0.01; * significant at p < 0.05; # significant at p < 0.10

MEN WOMEN Model 1 Model 2 Model 1 Model 2Occupational history BEFORE marriage stable (ref.)

unstable0.087**

0.091**

0.058**

0.035*

highly unstable0.157**

0.160**

0.123**

0.078**

Fraction of dur. of time spent out of empl. BEFORE marr.

0.005

-0.021

0.036 0.028

Fraction of dur. of time spent in PT empl. BEFORE marr.

0.044 0.071

-0.01

6 0.001Occupational earnings level AT MARRIAGE

bottom level0.03

10.00

7

level 20.00

0

-0.02

3 level 3 (ref.)

level 40.01

0

-0.04

3

top level

-0.01

10.03

0Occupational history WITHIN marriage stable (ref.) unstable 0.030 0.069* highly unstable 0.103 0.084*Fraction of dur. of time spent out of empl. WITHIN marr. 0.039 0.060*Fraction of dur. of time spent in PT empl. WITHIN marr. 0.124 0.099**Occupational mobility in PAST YEAR no (ref.) downward 0.241** 0.227** upward 0.140* 0.151**Fraction of dur. of time spent out of empl. in PAST YEAR 0.050

-0.068**

Fraction of dur. of time spent in PT empl. in PAST YEAR 0.025

-0.154**

Current occupational earnings level

bottom level

-0.00

8 0.014

level 2

-0.03

4-

0.021 level 3 (ref.)

level 4

-0.00

7 0.004

top level0.01

1 0.003

The probability of dissolution of first marriage -discrete-time event-history analyses - average marginal effects in percentage

Adverse effects of early occupational histories:Any changes over marital duration?

Predicted probabilities are calculated from Model 2. Models also include occupational history*marital duration interactions.Other covariates evaluated at sample means.

0-3 yrs

4-7 yrs

8-12 yrs

0-3 yrs

4-7 yrs

8-12 yrs

0-3 yrs

4-7 yrs

8-12 yrs

Occ. his. BEFORE marriage

Occ. his. WITHIN marriage

Occ. mob. in PAST year

0

0.0005

0.001

0.0015

0.002

0.0025

0.003

0.0035

0.004

0.0045

0.005

Stable Highly unstable/downward

0-3 yrs

4-7 yrs

8-12 yrs

0-3 yrs

4-7 yrs

8-12 yrs

0-3 yrs

4-7 yrs

8-12 yrs

Occ. his. BEFORE marriage

Occ. his. WITHIN marriage

Occ. mob. in PAST year

0

0.0005

0.001

0.0015

0.002

0.0025

0.003

0.0035

0.004

Stable Highly unstable/downward

Predicted probabilities of marital dissolution by occupational histories and marital durationMEN WOMEN

Towards an explanation of the effects of occupational histories before marriage:Any selection effect?

Heckman two-stage estimation procedure: MEN WOMEN

No selectio

nSelectio

n

No selectio

nSelectio

nOccupational history BEFORE marriage stable (ref.)

unstable0.09

1**0.08

9**0.03

5*0.02

7

highly unstable0.16

0**0.15

8**0.07

8**0.04

6*

Inverse Mills ratio

-0.12

6

-0.57

9**

Average marginal effects are reported.Models include work history variables within marriage and all control variables. Robust standard errors are applied.For the inverse Mills ratio bootsrap standard error is applied. ** Significant at p < 0.01; * significant at p < 0.05; # significant at p < 0.10

Robustness check: An instrumental variable probit model, using the conditional recursive mixed process estimator ('cmp' ):

MEN WOMEN

No selectio

nSelectio

n

No selectio

nSelectio

nOccupational history BEFORE marriage

scale (1=stable, 6=most unstable)0.015 **

0.014 **

0.011**

0.006*

Rho

-0.03

9

-0.18

5 **

Average marginal effects are reported.Models include work history variables within marriage and all control variables. Robust standard errors are applied.** Significant at p < 0.01; * significant at p < 0.05; # significant at p < 0.10

Why are men who experienced volatile occupational careers early in their working lives are more likely to terminate their marriages? Variables on the three potential mediators come

from the age-33 sweep of NCDS:

psychological well-being at age 33: the Malaise Inventory: 24-item battery of questions designed

to identify individuals at high risk of depression principal component analysis is applied: five components have

been extracted

economic resources at age 33: a 8-point composite index has been constructed using

variables on housing conditions and savings/investments

marital heterogamy at age 33: a three-fold variable has been constructed for capturing

different combinations of men’s own and their wives’ occupational earnings

The focus of this part of the study is on ...

men only

first marriages formed between ages 16 and 32

rates of marriage dissolution between ages 34 and 46, regardless of the length of the partnership

event-history analyses that are equivalent to those reported before are performed

The effects of the potential mediators

Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5Occupational history BEFORE marriage stable (ref.)

unstable 0.021 0.017 0.0170.02

10.01

6

highly unstable0.05

2* 0.035#0.03

4#0.051*

0.030#

Mental health at age 33

'scared' 0.0000.00

0

'upset-violent' 0.020**0.016**

'tired' 0.0020.00

1

'sleeping problems' 0.0010.00

1

'stomach problems' -0.004

-0.00

4

Economic resources at age 33

Poor (versus non-poor)0.03

1**0.030**

Marital heterogamy at age 33 homogamy (ref.)

husband’s occupational earnings higher

-0.031*

wife’s occupational earnings higher0.02

0

wife is not employed

-0.031*

The effects of occupational history BEFORE marriage, health, wealth and marital heterogamy on MEN's marital dissolution after age 33;discrete-time event-history analyses; average marginal effects in percentage

Models include work history variables within marriage and all control variables. Robust standard errors are applied.** Significant at p < 0.01; * significant at p < 0.05; # significant at p < 0.10

Conclusions (1)

Men who experience greater instabilities in their occupational careers early in the working life have high risk of marital dissolution, even if they later achieve relatively advantaged occupational positions.

The disruptive impact of unstable occupational careers before the marriage was formed is not unique to the early stage of men’s partnerships, but it is apparent at all marital durations.

In case of women, the adverse effect of occupational instabilities before the marriage was formed is also visible but less marked.

Conclusions (2)

The bias introduced by the selectivity of unstable occupational histories before the marriage was formed has a significant and substantial influence on marital dissolution in case of women, but not for men.

Further analyses indicate that violent and aggressive behaviour in men and men’s failure of accumulating economic resources appear to be the most important factors in explaining why volatile occupational histories early in their working lives are associated with a heightened risk of marital separation.

Conclusions (3)

Are the adverse effects of volatile work histories early in the life-course visible for other cohorts as well?

Preliminary analyses, using the 1970 British birth cohort data, suggest that men with highly unstable occupational histories early in their working lives are more likely to dissolve their marriages in the first 5 years of their partnerships, even if they later achieve relatively advantaged occupational positions.

But the effect is weaker than in the 1958 cohort, implying a ‘permanent scar’ on the life-course of cohorts that members’ early careers were ‘hit’ by economic recession

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The probability of dissolution of first marriage – the effects of CONTROL variables;discrete-time event-history analyses, average marginal effects in percentage Men WomenAge at marriage 16-21 (ref.) 22-24 -0.095** -0.137** 25-27 -0.162** -0.132** 28-30 -0.218** -0.169** 31-34 -0.265** -0.219**Cohabitation before marriage no (ref.) only one cohabitation with the same partner -0.090** -0.052* one or more cohabitations with different partners 0.344** 0.109 both 0.034 0.048Number of childrenNumber of children born BEFORE partnership starts 0.049* 0.066**Number of children born IN partnership -0.059** -0.040**Child aged<5 -0.084** -0.089**Missing information on children 0.013 -0.016Educational qualifications less than O level (ref.) O level or eq. 0.045 -0.059** A level or eq. -0.015 -0.074** sub-degree -0.020 -0.066* degree -0.116* -0.156**Cognitive ability in childhood score -0.019* -0.002 missing information -0.098 -0.009Academic motivation in childhood score 0.007 -0.004 missing information 0.009 0.031Parents divorced yes 0.073 0.042 missing information 0.034 0.005Behavioural problems in childhood score on aggression scale 0.013# 0.020** score on withdrawn scale 0.000 -0.005 missing information 0.179 -0.005

Appendix (1)

Selection equation: probit of having highly unstable occupational history before marriage Men WomenUnemployment rate when leaving school

rate0.06

3*0.11

7*

squared rate

-0.00

5

-0.02

7Educational qualifications when left school less than O level (ref.)

O level or eq.

-0.21

4**

-0.00

7

A level or eq.

-0.13

70.19

7*

sub-degree

-0.24

5

-0.21

9

degree

-0.16

0

-0.11

9Attained higher level of qualification between leaving school and first marriage

0.059

0.125*

First occupational earnings score

bottom level0.34

4**0.07

1

level 20.24

0**0.07

1 level 3 (ref.)

level 4

-0.08

7

-0.37

4**

top level

-0.25

2*

-0.36

6*Father's social class (NS-SEC) high managerial and professional (ref.)

low managerial and professional

-0.03

90.03

8

intermediate occupations

-0.12

5

-0.04

0

self-employed

-0.19

6*

-0.24

3*

lower technical occupations

-0.18

3*

-0.02

7

semi-routine workers

-0.13

7*

-0.05

9

routine workers0.00

0

-0.11

9

missing information

-0.01

00.03

6Job aspiration at age 16 'good salary-good conditions-not much responsibility' (ref.)

'demanding but interesting and useful job' 0.08

30.10

1

'manual job -not much responsibility'0.05

20.02

6

'independent position-being in charge'0.20

4**0.20

2**

missing information0.09

2

-0.02

4

Controls

Fraction of duration of time spent out of employment

-0.36

5**

-0.45

1**

Fraction of duration of time spent in PT jobs 0.63

6*0.26

3*Age at marriage 16-21 (ref.)

22-240.41

8**0.50

3**

25-270.65

2**0.72

3**

28-300.80

8**0.84

6**

31-341.10

9**1.12

7**Cohabitation before marriage no (ref.)

only one cohabitation with the same partner0.21

7**0.23

7** one or more cohabitations with different partners

0.395**

0.324*

both0.39

5**0.47

1**Number of childrenNumber of children born BEFORE partnership starts

0.070**

0.059**

Missing information on children0.12

40.08

8Cognitive ability in childhood

score0.03

40.00

4

missing information

-0.02

50.29

1Academic motivation in childhood

score0.01

60.05

9*

missing information

-0.16

8

-0.04

4Parents divorced

yes0.02

30.25

2*

missing information

-0.17

9

-0.00

3Behavioural problems in childhood

score on aggression scale0.02

70.01

3

score on withdrawn scale0.03

0

-0.07

4*

missing information

-0.02

4

-0.30

2

Appendix (2)

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Erzsébet Bukodi