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Die volkswirtschaftliche Entwicklung geht in der Türkei weiter steil bergauf. Nach einem Wirtschaftswachstum von 2,5% im Vorjahr, rechnen die Erste Group Analysten mit rund 4% für das laufende Jahr. Im Vergleich zur Eurozone, wo aktuell 0,1% erwartet werden, ist das ein enormer Vorsprung. Türkischer Aktienmarkt: Potential noch nicht ausgeschöpft Mit einer positiven Performance von mehr als +58% hat der türkische Aktienmarkt in 2012 Europa deutlich hinter sich lassen können. Ein Grund für diese Performance war die hohe Liquidität. Denn für internationale Investoren ist das Thema Liquidität mehr denn je ein wichtiges Argument. Das weiterhin hohe BIP-Wachstum, die geringe Verschuldung und die attraktive Bewertung sind weitere wichtige Argumente.
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ERSTE GROUP
Boom-Markt Türkei: Überhitzung oder Investmentchance?
Henning Eßkuchen, Leiter CEE Equity ResearchMarkus Kaller, Leiter Retail Sales Österreich
ERSTE GROUP
February 2013 Turkey Outlook2
Growth: Rebalancing over & GDP to pick up
Source: TURKSTAT, Erste Group Research
Consumption and investment weakened in 2012Consumption and investment weakened in 2012 But, approaching the end in rebalancing....But, approaching the end in rebalancing....
150160170180190200210220230240250
1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12
Exports
Imports
Quarterly Exports and Imports (Real, S.A., 2003=100)
95
115
135
155
175
195
215
1Q04 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12
Private Consumption (S.A.)
Private Investment (S.A.)
* 1Q98=100
ERSTE GROUP
February 2013 Turkey Outlook3
Growth: Signs of a slight recovery in consumption
Consumer credits have gained momentumConsumer credits have gained momentum
Source: CBT, BRSA, TURKSTAT, CNBC-e, Automotive Manufacturers Association, Erste Group Research
Consumer confidence revives, albeit from low levelsConsumer confidence revives, albeit from low levels
100105
110115120125130135140145
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jan-08 Sep-08 May-09 Jan-10 Sep-10 May-11 Jan-12 Sep-12
Consumer Confidence Index
Consumption Index (s.a., right)
0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
FX-Adjusted Trend Grow th of Consumer Credits*
20132006-20122012
*Trend growth is the annualized13-week average change
ERSTE GROUP
February 2013 Turkey Outlook4
Inflation: Benign core trend to prevail
Sustainability of the decline in expectations is keySustainability of the decline in expectations is key
Source: CBT, TURKSTAT, Erste Group Research
Flat headline and core inflation in 2013Flat headline and core inflation in 2013
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
Jan-09 Sep-09 May-10 Jan-11 Sep-11 May-12 Jan-13 Sep-13
CPI Core-I
Forecast
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12
12-month inflation expectation24-month inflation expectationInflation target
ERSTE GROUP
February 2013 Turkey Outlook5
Monetary Policy: Low rates, but higher RRR
Source: CBT, TURKSTAT, Erste Group Research
Monetary policy was accomodative in 2H12Monetary policy was accomodative in 2H12
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12
CBT's blended cost of fundingCBT's blended cost of funding (4-week average)Lower bound of the corridorUpper bound of the corridorPolicy rate
ERSTE GROUP
February 2013 Turkey Outlook6
Yields: Opportunity for sustainably low yields
Bond market outperformed peers since upgradeBond market outperformed peers since upgrade
Source: CBT, Bloomberg, Erste Group Research
Bond yields are at historical lowsBond yields are at historical lows
* EM average 10Y yield is calculated as the average of the nine EM countries (Brazil, Czech Republic, Hungary, Mexico, Poland, South Africa, Indonesia, South Korea and Colombia), weighted with respect to their GDPs.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Dec-05 Jan-07 Feb-08 Mar-09 Apr-10 May-11 Jun-12 Jul-13
Blended cost of funding(c.a.)
Benchmark bond yield (c.a.)
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Nov-10 Mar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 Nov-12
Turkey vs. EM 10Y spreadTurkey 10Y bond yield (right)EM weighted average 10Y yield* (right)
ERSTE GROUP
February 2013 Turkey Outlook7
Investment Grade: Implications
• Achieving investment grade (IG) status extends the investor base, lowers borrowing costs and facilitates access to external financing
• IG status is awarded by relative strength in capital inflows
• The CBT will address the side effects of a deterioration in the external balance and debt by keeping interest rates low and tightening by macroprudential tools
• Fitch’s rating is now one notch above Moody’s and two notches above S&P’s. Moody’s assigns a positive outlook, meaning that the next agency upgrading to investment zone is more likely to be Moody’s, possibly in 2013
«CDS» «i»
S&P Fitch Moody'sPrime AAA AAA Aaa
AA+ AA+ Aa1
AA AA Aa2
AA- AA- Aa3
A+ A+ A1
A A A2
A- A- A3
BBB+ BBB+ Baa1
BBB BBB Baa2
BBB- BBB- Baa3
BB+ BB+ Ba1
BB BB Ba2
BB- BB- Ba
Rating Scale
High Grade
Upper Medium Grade
Low er Medium Grade
Non-Investment Grade - Speculative
Investment Grade
Turkey is here w ith outlook positive on Moody's rating and stable on S&P as w ell as Fitch.
ERSTE GROUP
February 2013 Turkey Outlook8
Fundamentals Turkey vs CEE
Source: Factset, Erste Group Research
EPS revision rate - TurkeyEPS revision rate - Turkey EPS revision rate - CEEEPS revision rate - CEE
ERSTE GROUP
February 2013 Turkey Outlook9
Convergence to mean
Source: Factset, Erste Group Research
Gap between current P/E and historical averagesGap between current P/E and historical averages
Turkey shouldbe worth a double digitP/E
ERSTE GROUP
February 2013 Turkey Outlook10
Liqudity
Source: FESE, FEAS, Erste Group Research
If there is flow into the region, Turkey is the preferred targetIf there is flow into the region, Turkey is the preferred target
EUR 1bn averagedailyturnover
ERSTE GROUP
February 2013 Turkey Outlook11
Blue-Sky Scenario: ISE-100 at 100,000
• We conducted what-if analyses to compute the fair values of the ISE-100 by using the peak multiples of the major stocks since the beginning of 2010.
• Our analysis is based on 12-month trailing and forward-looking multiples and the peak multiples of each stock are computed individually. For each stock, the timing of the peak multiple may differ from that of the ISE.
• In our model, we employed P/BV multiple for banks, EV/EBITDA multiple for the major non-bank companies and the sum-of-the-parts model for the conglomerates.
• Our sample universe is formed by 38 stocks, which represents 87% of the ISE-100.
Source: Bloomberg, ESI
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
80,000
85,000
90,000
95,000
100,000
105,000
Current @ 11.2x of 2013E P/E @ 12-mth trailing multiples @ 12-mth fwd lookingmultiples
Target Value of ISE-100 Upside Potential
ERSTE GROUP
February 2013 Turkey Outlook12
Summary
After the strong rally in the market, we remain cautiously optimistic for the ISE for the near-term.
Profit-taking activity in equities in the early months of 2013 as investors digest their recent gains is just a healthy move
We believe that possible profit-taking will be short-lived as the strong economic outlook and liquidity will outweigh any pessimism in the market.
The analyst community has already reflected positive expectations to their estimates and target prices to a certain extent, in our view. Improving fundamentals are needed as supportto remove market from somewhat fragile footing
Our Blue-Sky Scenario indicates that the fair value of the ISE-100 could be as high as 100,000, pointing to a strong upside.
ERSTE GROUP
Türkei-InvestmentsIndex-Zertifikate, Hebelprodukte und Fonds
Markus KallerErste Group Bank AG
ERSTE GROUP
IBTX EUR-Index von Wr. Börse berechnet
kapitalisierungsgewichteter Preisindex
Umsatzstärksten und höchstkapitalisiertesten
Aktien der Istanbul Stock Exchange
Anzahl Unternehmen: maximal 20 Aktien
Gewichtungsgrenze: maximal 20% pro Aktie
Währung Euro (nicht Währungsgesichert)
Überprüfung Zusammensetzung: halbjährlich
(März, September)
Indexzertifikat (ISIN: AT0000A0X8F9)
Laufzeit: Open-end
Bezugsverhältnis: 0,01
Türkei-Index von Wr. Börse: IBTX EUR Index
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ERSTE GROUP
IBTX EUR Index
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Titel Anteil am IndexTURKIYE GARANTI BANKASI 14,84%AKBANK T.A.S. 14,26%TURKIYE IS BANKASI-C 9,37%TURKIYE HALK BANKASI 8,71%HACI OMER SABANCI HOLDING 8,29%BIM BIRLESIK MAGAZALAR AS 6,22%TURKCELL ILETISIM HIZMET AS 5,79%KOC HOLDING AS 5,59%TUPRAS-TURKIYE PETROL RAFINE 4,86%TURK TELEKOMUNIKASYON AS 4,14%YAPI VE KREDI BANKASI 3,59%TURK HAVA YOLLARI AO 3,14%TURKIYE VAKIFLAR BANKASI T-D 3,09%EREGLI DEMIR VE CELIK FABRIK 2,47%EMLAK KONUT GAYRIMENKUL YATI 1,87%PETKIM PETROKIMYA HOLDING AS 0,98%ASYA KATILIM BANKASI AS 0,96%KOZA ANADOLU METAL MADENCILI 0,78%MIGROS TICARET A.S 0,58%IHLAS HOLDING 0,45%
ERSTE GROUP
ISE30-Index von Istanbul Stock Exchange
berechnet
kapitalisierungsgewichteter Preisindex
Umsatzstärksten und höchstkapitalisiertesten
Aktien der Istanbul Stock Exchange
Anzahl Unternehmen: 30 Aktien
TRY
Überprüfung Zusammensetzung: vierteljährlich
(März, Juni, September, Dezember)
Indexzertifikat (ISIN: AT0000A0ZEG6)
Laufzeit: Open-end
Bezugsverhältnis: 0,001
Türkei-Index von Istanbul Stock Exchange: ISE30 Index
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ERSTE GROUP
ISE30 Index
17
50%
13%
8%
7%
5%
5%
3%3%
6%ISE 30 Branchenstruktur
Bank
Industriekonglomerat
Telekommunikation
Lebensmittel
Erdöl & Erdgas
Bergbau & Metalle
Fluglinie
Haushalt
Sonstige
Titel Anteil am Index Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS 14,62%Akbank TAS 12,37%Turkiye Halk Bankasi AS 8,82%Haci Omer Sabanci Holding AS 7,51%Turkiye Is Bankasi 7,37%BIM Birlesik Magazalar AS 6,46%Tupras Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS 4,94%Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri AS 4,94%KOC Holding AS 4,26%Yapi ve Kredi Bankasi AS 3,31%Turk Hava Yollari 3,26%Turk Telekomunikasyon AS 2,76%Turkiye Vakiflar Bankasi Tao 2,66%Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS 2,02%Arcelik AS 1,64%Koza Altin Isletmeleri AS 1,61%Emlak Konut Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortaklig 1,60%Enka Insaat ve Sanayi AS 1,47%Turkiye Sise ve Cam Fabrikalari AS 1,12%Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS 1,05%Petkim Petrokimya Holding AS 0,87%Asya Katilim Bankasi AS 0,84%Koza Anadolu Metal Madencilik Isletmeler 0,72%Kardemir Karabuk Demir Celik Sanayi ve T 0,70%Dogan Sirketler Grubu Holding AS 0,69%Migros Ticaret AS 0,57%Turk Traktor ve Ziraat Makineleri AS 0,53%Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS 0,47%Ihlas Holding AS 0,46%Ipek Dogal Enerji Kaynaklari Ve Uretim A 0,39%
ERSTE GROUP
ISIN-Code Dt WKN Basiswert Maßgeb. Börse Ausübungskurs Barriere Bezugs-
verhältnisLaufzeitend
e
Erster Handelsta
g
Erst-ausgabe- preis
Long /
Short
AT0000A0ZEC5 EB0CNL ISE 30 ISTANBUL 70.000,00 75.000,00 0,001 open end 08.02.2013 12,78 Long
AT0000A0ZED3 EB0CNM ISE 30 ISTANBUL 85.000,00 90.000,00 0,001 open end 08.02.2013 6,48 Long
AT0000A0ZEE1 EB0CNN ISE 30 ISTANBUL 115.000,00 110.000,00 0,001 open end 08.02.2013 6,11 Short
AT0000A0ZEF8 EB0CNP ISE 30 ISTANBUL 130.000,00 125.000,00 0,001 open end 08.02.2013 12,41 Short
Turbo-Zertifikate auf den ISE30-Index
18
ERSTE GROUPIBTX EUR und ISE30 Index im Vergleich
19
ERSTE GROUP
Aktien von Emittenten mit Sitz in der Türkei sowie von Unternehmen, die an
einer Börse in der Türkei notieren
Aktiver Investmentansatz entsprechend den qualitativen und quantitativen
Methoden des CEE-Aktienteams
Währung: EUR (Fremdwährungsrisiken, da Aktien in TRY notieren)
Wertentwicklung lt. OEKB (Brutto in % p.a.)
1 Jahr: 59,82 3 Jahre: 11,40% 5 Jahre: -1,81 10 Jahre: 16,26
ISIN: AT0000704341 (Thesaurierer), AT0000704333 (Ausschütter)
AGA: 4%
Verwaltungsgebühr: 1,80% p.a.
ESPA Stock Istanbul
20
ERSTE GROUPIBTX EUR, ISE30 Index und ESPA Stock Istanbulim Vergleich
21
ERSTE GROUPIBTX EUR, ISE30 Index und ESPA Stock Istanbulim Vergleich
22
ERSTE GROUPErste Group Bank AG in der Türkei
Erste Group der erste Emittent von (Turbo)- Zertifikaten an der Istanbuler Börse
Underlyings zum Start: Dax, Gold, WTI
Aktuelle Produktpallete um Silber, Kupfer, ISE 30 und türkische Einzelwerte ergänzt
Entwicklung einer eigenen Website: www.sertifika.erste.com.tr
Weitere Produkte geplant: Optionsscheine & Indexzertifikate
Istanbuler Börse 2012: Gehandeltes Volumen Aktien: EUR 382 Mrd. Gehandeltes Volumen Strukturierte Produkte: EUR 2 Mrd. Bester Monat Jänner 2013 strukturierte Produkte: EUR 560 Mio.
Seite 23 11. Februar 2013OE 0196 0691
ERSTE GROUP
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