14
Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Limited (hereinafter “ARSSBL”) is a full-service brokerage and equities-research firm and the views expressed therein are solely of ARSSBL and not of the companies covered in the Research Report. This report is intended for the sole use of the Recipient. Disclosures, and analyst certifications are given in the Appendix. Anand Rathi Research India Equities Healthcare Initiating coverage India I Equities Shikha Jain Research Analyst Rashmi Sancheti Research Analyst Candice Pereira Research Associate Key financials (YE Mar) FY17 FY18 FY19e FY20e FY21e Sales (`m) 7,495 8,556 10,952 12,637 14,589 Net profit (`m) 2,468 2,941 3,500 4,231 5,037 EPS (`) 17.9 21.4 25.5 30.8 36.6 PE (x) 44.3 37.2 27.3 22.6 19.0 EV / EBITDA (x) 39.5 33.9 21.9 17.9 14.6 PBV (x) 19.3 12.7 7.9 5.8 4.5 RoE (%) 55.6 41.2 33.8 29.7 26.7 RoCE (%) 56.1 34.1 28.4 28.5 27.9 Dividend yield (%) - - - - - Net debt / equity (x) -0.5 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research ` Key data ERIS IN / ERIS.BO 52-week high / low `896 / 560 Sensex / Nifty 34780 / 10453 3-m average volume $0.5m Market cap `95bn / $1283m Shares outstanding 138m Shareholding pattern (%) Jun'18 Mar'18 Dec'17 Promoters 55.9 55.9 55.9 - of which, Pledged - - - Free float 44.1 44.1 44.1 - Foreign institutions 8.7 8.6 6.8 - Domestic institutions 10.8 10.8 12.4 - Public 24.6 24.7 24.9 17 October 2018 Eris Lifesciences Focused domestic player, robust financials; initiating, with a Buy Focused on therapies for lifestyle-related disorders, a purely domestic pharmaceutical, Eris Lifesciences is expected to register 19%/20% revenue/PAT CAGRs over FY18-21. We believe it to be driven by its focus on high-growth chronic therapies and specialty acute therapies (complementing its chronic range). These are bolstered by its unique patient-care initiatives and prescriptions from specialists and super- specialists. This helps it to higher volumes, better margins and growth across segments. We initiate coverage on Eris Lifesciences with a Buy and a target of `879, based on 24x FY21e earnings. Operations in high-growth chronic and specialty acute therapies. Eris’ focus has been on developing products linked to lifestyle diseases. Its key focus therapies are cardiovascular, anti-diabetes, gastroenterology and vitamins, which bring ~80% to its revenue. While consolidating existing therapy areas is its focused strategy, it is also keen on expanding into newer high-growth therapies (CNS, bone health, VMN, women’s health [IVF], cosmeceuticals), which are a large part of the next growth phase. Robust financials. Eris’s capital intensity is low, in terms of both working capital and fixed assets. Along with high margins, this drives its healthy cash generation. We believe its strong revenue growth, healthy EBITDA margin and low capex requirement, together with strong profit growth (a ~20% CAGR over FY18-21), would continue to result in healthy free-cash-flow generation. This would help it grow inorganically as management stated that it would keep on seeking inorganic growth. Valuation.We like Eris for its focus on the fastest-growing therapeutic areas, healthy balance sheet and robust operating margins. We initiate coverage on it with a Buy recommendation and a price target of 879, based on 24x FY21e EPS. Risks: More products under the NLEM, delay in execution, competition risk. Relative price performance Source: Bloomberg ERIS Sensex 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Rating: Buy Share Price: `695 Target Price: `879

Eris LifeSciences -- ed 2 · This report is intended for the sole use of the Recipient. Disclosures, and analyst certifications are given in the Appendix. Anand Rathi Research India

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    2

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Eris LifeSciences -- ed 2 · This report is intended for the sole use of the Recipient. Disclosures, and analyst certifications are given in the Appendix. Anand Rathi Research India

Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Limited (hereinafter “ARSSBL”) is a full-service brokerage and equities-research firm and the views expressed therein are solely of ARSSBL and not of the companies covered in the Research Report. This report is intended for the sole use of the Recipient. Disclosures, and analyst certifications are given in the Appendix. Anand Rathi Research India Equities

Healthcare

Initiating coverageIndia I Equities

Shikha JainResearch Analyst

Rashmi Sancheti Research Analyst

Candice Pereira Research Associate

Key financials (YE Mar) FY17 FY18 FY19e FY20e FY21e

Sales (`m) 7,495 8,556 10,952 12,637 14,589 Net profit (`m) 2,468 2,941 3,500 4,231 5,037 EPS (`) 17.9 21.4 25.5 30.8 36.6 PE (x) 44.3 37.2 27.3 22.6 19.0 EV / EBITDA (x) 39.5 33.9 21.9 17.9 14.6 PBV (x) 19.3 12.7 7.9 5.8 4.5 RoE (%) 55.6 41.2 33.8 29.7 26.7 RoCE (%) 56.1 34.1 28.4 28.5 27.9 Dividend yield (%) - - - - -Net debt / equity (x) -0.5 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5

Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research

`

Key data ERIS IN / ERIS.BO 52-week high / low `896 / 560 Sensex / Nifty 34780 / 104533-m average volume $0.5m Market cap `95bn / $1283m Shares outstanding 138m

Shareholding pattern (%) Jun'18 Mar'18 Dec'17

Promoters 55.9 55.9 55.9 - of which, Pledged - - -Free float 44.1 44.1 44.1 - Foreign institutions 8.7 8.6 6.8 - Domestic institutions 10.8 10.8 12.4 - Public 24.6 24.7 24.9

17 October 2018

Eris Lifesciences

Focused domestic player, robust financials; initiating, with a Buy

Focused on therapies for lifestyle-related disorders, a purely domestic pharmaceutical, Eris Lifesciences is expected to register 19%/20% revenue/PAT CAGRs over FY18-21. We believe it to be driven by its focus on high-growth chronic therapies and specialty acute therapies (complementing its chronic range). These are bolstered by its unique patient-care initiatives and prescriptions from specialists and super-specialists. This helps it to higher volumes, better margins and growth across segments. We initiate coverage on Eris Lifesciences with a Buy and a target of `879, based on 24x FY21e earnings.

Operations in high-growth chronic and specialty acute therapies. Eris’ focus has been on developing products linked to lifestyle diseases. Its key focus therapies are cardiovascular, anti-diabetes, gastroenterology and vitamins, which bring ~80% to its revenue. While consolidating existing therapy areas is its focused strategy, it is also keen on expanding into newer high-growth therapies (CNS, bone health, VMN, women’s health [IVF], cosmeceuticals), which are a large part of the next growth phase.

Robust financials. Eris’s capital intensity is low, in terms of both working capital and fixed assets. Along with high margins, this drives its healthy cash generation. We believe its strong revenue growth, healthy EBITDA margin and low capex requirement, together with strong profit growth (a ~20% CAGR over FY18-21), would continue to result in healthy free-cash-flow generation. This would help it grow inorganically as management stated that it would keep on seeking inorganic growth.

Valuation.We like Eris for its focus on the fastest-growing therapeutic areas, healthy balance sheet and robust operating margins. We initiate coverage on it with a Buy recommendation and a price target of ₹879, based on 24x FY21e EPS. Risks: More products under the NLEM, delay in execution, competition risk.

Relative price performance

Source: Bloomberg

ERIS

Sensex

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

Oct

-17

Nov

-17

Dec

-17

Jan-

18

Feb-

18

Mar

-18

Apr-1

8

May

-18

Jun-

18

Jul-1

8

Aug-

18

Sep-

18

Oct

-18

Rating: Buy Share Price: `695 Target Price: `879

Page 2: Eris LifeSciences -- ed 2 · This report is intended for the sole use of the Recipient. Disclosures, and analyst certifications are given in the Appendix. Anand Rathi Research India

17 October 2018 Eris Lifesciences – Focused domestic player, robust financials; initiating, with a Buy

Anand Rathi Research 2

Quick Glance – Financials and ValuationsFig 1 – Income statement (`m) Year-end: Mar FY17 FY18 FY19e FY20e FY21e

Net revenues 7,495 8,556 10,952 12,637 14,589 Growth (%) 25.6 14.2 28.0 15.4 15.4Direct costs 1,046 1,341 1,668 1,903 2,193 SG&A 3,758 3,995 5,038 5,742 6,576 EBITDA 2,691 3,220 4,246 4,991 5,821 EBITDA margins (%) 35.9 37.6 38.8 39.5 39.9 - Depreciation 228 256 293 324 355 Other income 251 264 150 165 182 Interest expenses 10 106 244 168 93 PBT 2,704 3,122 3,859 4,664 5,554 Effective tax rate (%) 8.8 5.5 9.0 9.0 9.0 + Associates / (minorities) -2 9 10 13 15 Net income 2,468 2,941 3,500 4,231 5,037 Adjusted income 2,468 2,941 3,500 4,231 5,037 WANS 138 138 138 138 138 FDEPS (` / sh) 17.9 21.4 25.5 30.8 36.6

Fig 3 – Cash-flow statement (`m) Year-end: Mar FY17 FY18 FY19e FY20e FY21e

PBT (adj other income/ interest) 2,463 2,964 3,954 4,668 5,466 + Non-cash items 228 256 293 324 355 Oper. prof. before WC 2,691 3,220 4,246 4,991 5,821 - Incr./(decr.) in WC 164 222 351 179 179 Others incl. taxes 524 652 849 1,026 1,222 Operating cash-flow 2,002 2,346 3,046 3,787 4,420 - Capex (tang. + intang.) 463 251 200 200 200 Free cash-flow 1,540 2,095 2,846 3,587 4,220 Acquisitions 774 5,244 - - - - Div. (incl.buyback& taxes) 169 - - - - + Equity raised - - - - - + Debt raised -65 3,735 -1,026 -1,000 -1,000 - Fin investments 621 381 284 307 331 - Misc. (CFI + CFF) (10) 128 94 3 (88) Net cash-flow -73.1 82.5 1,442 2,277 2,977 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research

Fig 5 – Price movement

Source: Bloomberg

Fig 2 – Balance sheet (` m) Year-end: Mar FY17 FY18 FY19e FY20e FY21e

Share capital 138 138 138 138 138Net worth 5,671 8,613 12,113 16,344 21,381Total debt 6 3,768 2,742 1,742 742Minority interest 238 247 257 270 285DTL/(assets) -152 -483 -983 -1,588 -2,308Capital employed 5,763 12,145 14,129 16,767 20,099Net tangible assets 557 526 553 549 514Net intangible assets 1,382 6,250 6,130 6,010 5,890Goodwill 378 935 935 935 935CWIP (tang. & intang.) 1 - - - -Investments (strategic)

Investments (financial) 3,032 3,654 3,938 4,244 4,575Curr. assets (excl. cash) 1,394 2,124 2,686 3,041 3,487Cash 24 106 1,549 3,826 6,802Current liabilities 1,004 1,450 1,661 1,838 2,104Working capital 390 674 1,025 1,203 1,382Capital deployed 5,763 12,145 14,129 16,767 20,099Contingent liabilities 129 145 - - -

Fig 4 – Ratio analysis Year-end: Mar FY17 FY18 FY19e FY20e FY21e

P/E (x) 44.3 37.2 27.3 22.6 19.0 EV/EBITDA (x) 39.5 33.9 21.9 17.9 14.6 EV/sales (x) 14.2 12.8 8.5 7.1 5.8 P/B (x) 19.3 12.7 7.9 5.8 4.5 RoE (%) 55.6 41.2 33.8 29.7 26.7 RoCE (%) - after tax 56.1 34.1 28.4 28.5 27.9 RoIC (%) - after tax 129.1 50.5 42.2 49.0 57.1 DPS (`/ sh) - - - - -Dividend yield (%) - - - - -Dividend payout (%) - incl. DDT - - - - -Net debt/equity (x) -0.5 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 Receivables (days) 24 28 28 28 28 Inventory (days) 27 28 28 27 27 Payables (days) 19 39 32 30 30

CFO:PAT% 81.1 79.8 87.0 89.5 87.7 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research

Fig 6 – Revenue break-up (FY18)

Source: Company

ERIS

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Jun-

17

Jul-1

7

Aug-

17

Sep-

17

Oct

-17

Nov

-17

Dec

-17

Jan-

18

Mar

-18

Apr-1

8

May

-18

Jun-

18

Jul-1

8

Aug-

18

Sep-

18

Oct

-18

(`)

Chronic62%

Acute38%

Page 3: Eris LifeSciences -- ed 2 · This report is intended for the sole use of the Recipient. Disclosures, and analyst certifications are given in the Appendix. Anand Rathi Research India

17 October 2018 Eris Lifesciences – Focused domestic player, robust financials; initiating, with a Buy

Anand Rathi Research 3

Operating in the fastest-growing therapeutic arenas Manufacturing and marketing branded formulations for lifestyle-related disorders, Eris primarily focuses on such products in the chronic and specialty acute categories, which complement its chronic products. Its key focus therapeutic areas are cardiovascular (CVS), anti-diabetes, vitamins, gastroenterology and anti-infectives. In FY18 the market for Eris’ products, constituting 44% of the IPM, expanded 35% to `531bn.

Its chronic and acute therapies revenue split is 62:38, as most of its products are to treat CVS and diabetic issues. It’s CVS and anti-diabetes therapies account for 80-90% of its chronic revenue; its vitamins and gastroenterology therapies account for 55-60% of its acute-category revenue.

Strong foothold in CVS and diabetic drugs

Of the top-25 pharma companies in India (according to IMS Health), Eris has emerged as the second-fastest growing company in the chronic category with strong brands in CVS and anti-diabetes. In terms of FY18 revenue, it was ranked 20th of 395 domestic and multinational companies operating in the IPM’s chronic category (source: company, IMSTSA MAT, Mar’18). In the chronic category it registered ~24% revenue CAGR over FY13-18 vs. 13.3% for the IPM.

In India, CVS is the largest chronic therapeutic area, a ~`142 bn market. For Eris hypertension and lipid-lowering agents are key therapeutic sub-segments within CVS. It has outpaced market growth with 20.2% revenue CAGR over FY13-18, vs.10.5% for the IPM. Its mother brands (Eritel, Olmin, LnBloc, Atorsave, Crevast) are among the top-10, ensuring its therapeutic coverage and leadership.

Fig 8 – Eris’ position in represented CVS therapy

Market size Therapy rankMarket share

% % of revenueCAGR (FY13-18)

%IPM CAGR

(FY13-18) %

`86bn 10 3.3 29.3 20.2 10.5

Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research

Anti-diabetics is the second-largest chronic category in India, a `113bn market in FY17, registering a 17.6% revenue CAGR over FY13-17. With its focus on oral anti-diabetics, Eris’ anti-diabetic products clocked a 28.9% revenue CAGR in that period. The company has created certain leading brands

Fig 7 – Revenue break-up, IPM vs. Eris

Source:Company, Anand Rathi Research

Chronic 34.8%

Acute65.2%

IPM contribution

Chronic 62.4%

Acute37.6%

Eris contribution

Page 4: Eris LifeSciences -- ed 2 · This report is intended for the sole use of the Recipient. Disclosures, and analyst certifications are given in the Appendix. Anand Rathi Research India

17 October 2018 Eris Lifesciences – Focused domestic player, robust financials; initiating, with a Buy

Anand Rathi Research 4

through its patient-care model, which combines diagnostics assistance to increase awareness and improve prognosis. Its largest brand, Glimisave, addresses this market, has a 5.5% market share and is 3rd in prescription rank.

Fig 9 – Eris’ position in represented Anti-diabetic therapy

Market size Therapy rankMarket share

% % of revenueCAGR (FY13-18)

%IPM CAGR

(FY13-18) %

`58bn 7 4.7 28.1 28.9 17.6

Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research

We believe Eris’ focus on lifestyle-related-disorder therapies will drive growth in its chronic category. In India chronic diseases have been rising because of such disorders (modern sedentary lifestyles, unhealthy eating habits, greater work-related stress). Thus, segments focused on by Eris are some of the fastest-growing in the industry. We expect its chronic category (excl. Strides) to register a ~16% revenue CAGR over FY18-21, aided by its unique position in the market, focus on high-growth therapeutic segments andlaunches andgrowth in its leading brands.

Eris’ specialty acute product range complements its chronic portfolio

Eris’ specialty acute division focuses on developing products for lifestyle-related disorders and those which require prescriptions over a protracted period rather than just one-time incidence-related medication. Within the specialty acute segment, most of its revenue arises from vitamins and gastroenterology. These are, in general, acute segments. For Eris, however, they are natural extensions of its cardiac and anti-diabetes products. It developed its mother-brand groups in gastroenterology and vitamins as natural extensions of its cardiovascular and anti-diabetes products. For instance, its Vitamin-D brand, Tayo 60k, is useful for lipid metabolism, diabetes and hypertension; its key gastro product, Rabeprazole, is prescribed in cardiac and diabetic issues.

The acute category brought ~38% to its revenue in FY18, registering a 14% revenue CAGR over FY13-18, vs. 9.9% for the IPM.

Fig 10 – Eris’ position in represented vitamin and gastroenterology therapy

Therapy areas Market size

(` bn) Therapy rankMarket share

% Growth CAGR

(FY13-18) %

Vitamins/Nutrients 51 3 4.9 10.1

Gastro 60 18 1.5 6.1

Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research

While consolidating its existing therapy areas (cardiac and diabetes) is Eris’ prime strategy, it is also focusing on CNS, bone health, VMN, women’s health (IVF) and cosmeceuticals as a large part of the next phase of growth. We expect that its focus on specialty and super-specialty therapeutic areas would continue to generate sustainable growth in demand for its products.

Fig 11 – Increasing therapeutic focus Therapy Remarks

CNS Added two divisions;the acquired Strides range of products is complementary to this; expanded field force from 65to 200

Bone health Kinedex deal added momentum

Vitamins /nutrients Strides' brand Renerve has emerged as the 3rd-largest brand, `800m in sales, a 6.4% market share

Women’s health - IVF New focus area, on the UTH healthcare acquisition

Cosmeceuticals New focus area, working out strategiesregardingproducts, marketing, etc.

Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research

Page 5: Eris LifeSciences -- ed 2 · This report is intended for the sole use of the Recipient. Disclosures, and analyst certifications are given in the Appendix. Anand Rathi Research India

17 October 2018 Eris Lifesciences – Focused domestic player, robust financials; initiating, with a Buy

Anand Rathi Research 5

Prudent product selection; greater proportion of products in a growth phase to drive growth

Almost 73% of its revenue arises from products in growth phases, vs. ~31% for peers (source: company). This has enabled it to grow faster. Besides a good selection of products, one of the reasons for Eris’ better product-mix is the young age of its products, indicating product newness and the considerable growth opportunities they offer. Of its 397 brand extensions, 35(bringing 9.7% to sales in FY18) fall under the DPCO. Further, a key element of its product planning is to grow its specialty therapeutic areas which require 1-3 month’s medication. This would ensure healthy growth.

Fig 12 – Lifecycles of pharmaceutical molecules % Eris IPM

In a growth phase 73.0 30.7

Mature 25.1 39.4

Declining 1.6 28.7

Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research

Strong brand building, the core of its marketing strategy

A significant proportion of Eris’ revenue arises from brands which are among the top-10 in their sub-categories. A higher proportion of its revenue comes from its top-15 brands than the average of the top-25 in the IPM. Its top-15 mother brands account for ~74.2% of its revenues. (source: IMS TSA MAT Mar’18) Its focus on creating large brands has led to a significantly higher contribution from its top-15 mother brands.

Fig 13 – Eris’ top-15 brands Top-15 brands Therapies Market share %Revenue (FY18, ` m) Brand CAGR % (FY13-18) Market CAGR % (FY13-18) Prescription rank

Glimisave Diabetes 5.5 1,835 24.4 17.2 3

Eritel Hypertension 4.9 1,023 22.3 20.1 4

Renerve Neuropathy 6.4 801 15.5 13.8 3

Tayo Vit. D deficiency in metabolic disorders 4.6 530 6.5 18.6 5

Rabonik Gastroenterology 3.8 477 4.6 11.9 12

Olmin Hypertension 6.3 475 27.3 17.3 3

Remylin Diabetic neuropathy 14.0 470 5.5 21.7 3

Tendia Diabetes 6.4 400 38.9 55.4 4

Rosiflex Arthritis 36.9 383 203.8 82.5 1

Lnbloc Hypertension 7.0 374 122.0 66.7 2

Atorsave Lipid lowering 3.4 328 2.8 0.2 7

Raricap Iron supplement 1.3 264 10.6 8.9 9

Cyblex Diabetes 4.1 227 362.4 12.9 5

Crevast Lipid lowering 2.3 218 14.8 20.0 8

Marzon Anti-infectives 48.6 140 0.0 10.1 1

Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research

Page 6: Eris LifeSciences -- ed 2 · This report is intended for the sole use of the Recipient. Disclosures, and analyst certifications are given in the Appendix. Anand Rathi Research India

17 October 2018 Eris Lifesciences – Focused domestic player, robust financials; initiating, with a Buy

Anand Rathi Research 6

Fig 14 – Revenue contribution–IPM vs.Eris’top-15 mother brands

Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research

Targeting specialists and super-specialists

Eris’ product range primarily focuses on therapeutic areas requiring the intervention of specialists and super-specialists (cardiologists, diabetologists, endocrinologists, gastroenterologists). The company focuses on metropolises and class-1 towns in India, which have a higher incidence of lifestyle disorders and a concentration of specialists and super-specialists.

Sales are largely through prescriptions for Eris’ products by such specialists and super-specialists. With this, almost three-fourths of its cardiovascular and anti-diabetic revenues come from metros and class-1 towns. The number of doctors prescribing Eris’ products has increased from 24,606 in FY12 (9.3% of doctors in metros and class-1 towns in India) to 49,476in FY17 (16%) and 80,267 in FY18, according to an IMS medical audit.

The most significant impetus to the company’s goodwill is its unique patient-care initiatives. Eris’ combination of diagnostics with commercialisation and marketing enhance the quality of diagnosis and prognosis. Initiatives to support doctors have helped it increase prescription rates of products.

For example:

ABPM (ambulatory blood-pressure monitoring) is a key tool in diagnosing and monitoring hypertension. This records a patient’s blood pressure through the day. Eris launched an “ABPM on call”, offering doctors and patients better insights and accessibility to the tool. Through “ABPM on Call”, it has supported (by Mar’18) more than 3,800 doctors and 36,500 patients.

The “Holter on Call” (an initiative for 24-hour rhythm monitoring) has supported more than 2,200 doctors and 18,000 patients. Besides, its Eritel Sleep Study on Call, highlighting the links between cardiac diseases and sleep disorders, has till now supported more than 850 clinicians and 3,000 patients to meet the changing needs of cardiovascular care.

CGM (continuous glucose monitoring) is important to make choices related to treatment for diabetes. Eris launched ‘Tendia CGM On Call’, which engages with doctors who need CGM to treat patients. Eris’ executives attach CGM devices to patients and monitor glucose levels for 3-6 days, after which the company collects data for the doctor. In diabetes management, Eris has supported more than 3,800 clinicians and 500,000 patients through various measures such as CGM on Call and Tendia Vascular Screening.

59.0%

74.2%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

IPM Top 25 Co Avg Eris

Page 7: Eris LifeSciences -- ed 2 · This report is intended for the sole use of the Recipient. Disclosures, and analyst certifications are given in the Appendix. Anand Rathi Research India

17 October 2018 Eris Lifesciences – Focused domestic player, robust financials; initiating, with a Buy

Anand Rathi Research 7

Super-specialists and specialists bring 92.6% to the company’s prescriptions, contrasting with 61.6% for the IPM.The urban market for Eris’ pharmaceutical products is growing faster than the rural market. We believe the company is well placed to capitalise on growth opportunities, and endeavors to grow faster than the market in these categories.

Fig 16 – Eris’ prescription rank Doctor specialty Prescription Rank FY18

Diabetologists /Endocrinologists 2

Cardiologists 2

Cons. Physicians 5

Gynaecologists 13

Gastroenterologists 3

Orthopedicians 13

ENT 2

Chest specialists 2

Neurologists 5

Source:Company, Anand Rathi Research

Strategic acquisitions to support business and boost growth

In FY17 and FY18 Eris diversified its product range. It made strategic acquisitions to 1) strengthen or expand its product range within its therapies, 2) develop operating leverage for key therapeutic areas by unlocking efficiency and synergies, 3) gain access to new markets or enter new high-growth therapeutic areas and widen its geographical reach.

Amay Pharma: To further grow it’s cardiovascular and anti-diabetics product basket, it acquired from Amay Pharma in July’16 trademarks related to 40 brands for `328.7m. Key brands: Atorica, Apriglim, Rosurica.

Kinedex: To add products for mobility-related disorders in the musculo-skeletal therapeutic area toits portfolio, it acquired 75.48% equity in Kinedex (61.5% in Nov’16, 14% in Dec’16) for `771.79m. Key brands: Rosiflex, Meltocol, Lactovel, Oleevcal.

UTHHealthcare: In Oct’17, Eris acquired for `128.5m 100% equity in UTH, which is into obesity, diabetes, gestational diabetes mellitus, maternal nutrition, and cardiovascular areas. The acquisition provides a range of products that complement Eris’.

Fig 15 – Proportion of specialist and super-specialist prescriptions – Eris and the IPM

Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research

Super specialist and specialist

61.6%

General practitioners

38.4%

IPM

Super specialist and specialist

92.6%

General practitioners

7.4%

Eris

Page 8: Eris LifeSciences -- ed 2 · This report is intended for the sole use of the Recipient. Disclosures, and analyst certifications are given in the Appendix. Anand Rathi Research India

17 October 2018 Eris Lifesciences – Focused domestic player, robust financials; initiating, with a Buy

Anand Rathi Research 8

Strides: In Nov’17, Eris acquired for `5bn the Strides’ India business (branded), together with the employees. This generics business, comprising more than 130 brands in neurology, psychiatry, nutraceuticals, gastroenteritis, etc., had sales of `1.81bn in FY17and was EBITDA neutral, though the gross margin was 69-70%. Management believes that, with sourcing moved to the Guwahati plant, the gross margin would improve. The integration added 250-300 MRs.

This transaction is a good strategic fit for Eris. The acquisition marks its foray intoCNS (central nervous system) therapy and neurology and helps scale up its operations in gynaecology and gastrointestinal. The Strides’ acquisition gives scale in the chronic (CNS) and the faster-growing specialty acute (gastro, vitamins, Gynaec) specialties. It strengthens Eris’ position as a chronic-focused specialty player on the emergence of CNS therapy as Eris’ third-largest therapy. Also, the crucial lever for the deal: ~70% (52% from Tamil Nadu) of sales of the acquired range of products arise from the southern region. The synergies of the acquisition would provide Eris’ core portfolio immediate access to south Indian markets and offer opportunities to expand the Strides range of products to other parts of the country.

The two acquired companies, Kinedex and Amay, reported modest sales growth and positive EBITDA in FY18. At present, Kinedex’/Amay Pharma’s EBITDA margins are 9%/11%. We expect the integration of the acquired products, especially those of Strides, would generate strong sales and earnings growth momentum in FY19, FY20 and FY21. Eris will continue to focus on enhancing its product line and capabilities inorganically.

Focus on enhancingfield-force productivity

At present, Eris has 1,970 market representatives and its strategy to create strong prescription-driven brands ensures higher productivity per MR and continues to drive operating leverage. Over the years it has consistently improved its field-force productivity, from a low ₹3.3m in FY13 to ₹5m in FY17. The slightly lower (₹4.3m) field-force productivity in FY18 was because of the expansion, the Strides acquisition (which added 300 MRs whereas revenue was consolidated only for part of the year) and the GST impact. We expect MR productivity to improve in FY19, as the company expands its product basket through in-licensing of key products or brand acquisition, along with the full-year revenue of the acquisition kicking in.

Fig 17 – Number of MRs

Source:Company, Anand Rathi Research

Fig 18 – MR productivity

Source:Company, Anand Rathi Research

1,19

2 1,43

6

1,49

9

1,42

2

1,50

1

1,97

0

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

3.3 3.5 3.6 4.

2

5.0

4.3

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

(`m)

Page 9: Eris LifeSciences -- ed 2 · This report is intended for the sole use of the Recipient. Disclosures, and analyst certifications are given in the Appendix. Anand Rathi Research India

17 October 2018 Eris Lifesciences – Focused domestic player, robust financials; initiating, with a Buy

Anand Rathi Research 9

Financials Strong revenue growth

We expect a ~19% revenue CAGR over FY18-21 for Eris, to `15bn. The growth is likely to be driven by both the chronic and acute divisions, even as consolidating existing therapy areas remains its focus strategy. It is also focused on expanding into newer high-growth areas.

Fig 19 – Revenue growth trend

Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research

Expect 220-230bp expansion in EBITDA margin

Over the years Eris’ EBITDA margin has expanded as a result of higher capacity utilisation (which has boosted its gross margin) and the consistent improvement in MR productivity. We expect 226bp expansion by FY21in the EBITDA margin, to ~40%, considering the higher MR productivity on optimum utilisation of existing and acquired employees (this would improve operating leverage) and better utilisation of its own plant to maintain an 84-85% gross margin. In absolute terms, we expect a 22% EBITDA CAGR over FY18-21, to `5.8bn.

Fig 20 – EBITDA and margin trend

Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research

25.6

14.2

28.0

15.4

15.4

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

FY17

FY18

FY19

e

FY20

e

FY21

e

(%)(`m)

Revenue Growth (RHS)

35.9

37.6

38.8

39.5 39.9

35.0

36.0

37.0

38.0

39.0

40.0

41.0

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

FY17

FY18

FY19

e

FY20

e

FY21

e

(%)(`m)

EBITDA EBITDA Margin (RHS)

Page 10: Eris LifeSciences -- ed 2 · This report is intended for the sole use of the Recipient. Disclosures, and analyst certifications are given in the Appendix. Anand Rathi Research India

17 October 2018 Eris Lifesciences – Focused domestic player, robust financials; initiating, with a Buy

Anand Rathi Research 10

Strong profitability

Considering its revenue growth trajectory and healthy EBITDA margin, we believe Eris would report healthy profit growth. We expect it to register a 20% PAT CAGR over FY18-21, to `5bn.

Fig 21 – Strong earnings growth

Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research

Strong operating and free-cash-flow generation

Considering its strong revenue growth trajectory, healthy EBITDA margin, low working capital days and low capex required, we believe its operating cash-flow (OCF) and free cash-flow (FCF) would register strong growth. This would help it grow inorganically. Its OCF/EBITDA and FCF/EBITDA conversion was more than ~78% and ~56% respectively over FY15-18 due to low working capital and low capex required.

Fig 22 – OCF and FCF

Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research

Eris has a manufacturing plant at Guwahati, Assam, which brought ~66% to its revenue in FY18. The Guwahati plant is eligible for certain tax incentives, incl. income-tax and excise-duty exemptions for 10 years (until FY24 and FY25, respectively), besides certain capital investment and trade subsidies. Management said that the consolidated tax rate in FY19 would be 8–9%.

74.1

19.2 19.020.9

19.1

10.0

22.0

34.0

46.0

58.0

70.0

82.0

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

FY17

FY18

FY19

e

FY20

e

FY21

e

(%)(`m)

PAT Growth (RHS)

0

900

1,800

2,700

3,600

4,500

FY17

FY18

FY19

e

FY20

e

FY21

e(`m)

OCF FCF

Page 11: Eris LifeSciences -- ed 2 · This report is intended for the sole use of the Recipient. Disclosures, and analyst certifications are given in the Appendix. Anand Rathi Research India

17 October 2018 Eris Lifesciences – Focused domestic player, robust financials; initiating, with a Buy

Anand Rathi Research 11

Valuation Considering Eris’ persistent strong growth momentum (a 20% PAT CAGR over FY18-21), healthy operating margins and return ratios, along with healthy free-cash-flow generation and sturdy business model (focusing on the fastest-growing chronic therapies, lifestyle diseases, super-specialty acute therapy segments with clinically differentiated products/unmet needs and complementary portfolio), we are sanguine about its mid- to long-term prospects.

At present, the stock trades at 27.3x/22.6x/19x of FY19e/FY20e/FY21e earnings. We initiate coverage on Eris Lifesciences, with a target of ₹879 based on 24x FY21e earnings, a discount to multinational pharma’s. These trade at much higher PEs, are much larger and enjoy well-established old brands and wide distribution networks. We believe, however, that Eris ’operating margins and return ratios stand out from its peersand, because of its healthy earnings growth, offer scope for re-rating.

Fig 23 – Peer comparison

Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research

Risks

More products under the NLEM.

Execution delays.

Competition risk.

25x

30x

35x

ERIS

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1,000

Jun-

17

Jul-1

7

Aug-

17

Sep-

17

Oct

-17

Nov

-17

Dec

-17

Jan-

18

Mar

-18

Apr-1

8

May

-18

Jun-

18

Jul-1

8

Aug-

18

Sep-

18

Oct

-18

Fig 24 – Peer comparison Company CMP M Cap PE (x) PB (x) EV/EBITDA ROE (%)

(`) (` bn) FY19e FY20e FY21e FY19e FY20e FY21e FY19e FY20e FY21e FY19e FY20e FY21e

Eris 695 95.6 27.3 22.6 19.0 7.9 5.8 4.5 21.9 17.9 14.6 33.8 29.7 26.7

Alkem 1,966 235.0 25.0 19.1 16.8* 4.2 3.5 3.1* 18.4 14.2 12.4* 17.9 20.0 19.9*

GSK 1,451 248.2 53.7 44.9 50.0 11.7 11.4 10.5 35.1 29.3 30.1 21.8 24.8 21.8

Abbott 7,428 158.4 32.7 27.1 NA 7.7 6.3 NA 21.4 17.8 NA 25.4 25.5 NA

Sanofi 5,991 138.6 34.5 29.9 24.5 6.2 5.5 4.8 20.5 17.5 13.0 18.5 19.4 21.2

Pfizer 2,897 132.8 30.4 26.2 22.9 4.4 4.0 3.5 18.4 15.5 13.2 15.4 16.0 16.3

Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research, *Alkem FY21 numbers from Bloomberg

Page 12: Eris LifeSciences -- ed 2 · This report is intended for the sole use of the Recipient. Disclosures, and analyst certifications are given in the Appendix. Anand Rathi Research India

17 October 2018 Eris Lifesciences – Focused domestic player, robust financials; initiating, with a Buy

Anand Rathi Research 12

Company Background & Management Founded by Amit Bakshi and team in 2007, Eris is the second-fastest-growing company in chronic therapies (cardiovascular, anti-diabetics) among the top-25 pharma companies and features among the top-30 in Indian brand-named formulations. Its focus has been on developing, manufacturing and marketing products linked to chronic lifestyle-related disorders and treated by super-specialists and specialists. These prescribe 92.6% of the company’s prescriptions, compared with 61.6% for the IPM; its chronic category brings over 62.4% to its revenues, (34.8% for the IPM).

Fig 25 – Shareholding pattern

Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research

Fig 26 – Key shareholders Entity % shareholding

Promoters 55.93

Domestic institutions 10.74

Motilal Oswal Multicap 35 Fund 3.59

Aditya Birla Sun Life 3.44

Foreign institutions 8.68

Matthews India Fund 1.42

Goldman Sachs India Limited 1.31

Abu Dhabi Investment Authority – Behave 1.01

Public 24.6

Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research

Fig27 – Management and Board of Directors Name Position Profile

Amit Bakshi Chairman, MD

On the Board since inception. Brings extensive experience of the Indian pharmaceutical industry and handles strategic management across all functions. Previously with pharmaceutical companies in various capacities;more than 20 years’ experience in pharmaceuticals

Himanshu Shah Executive Director

On the Board since inception. Responsible for supporting overall management in line with strategic direction across multiple operationalfunctions. Previously with pharmaceutical companies in various capacities;more than 20 years’ experience in pharmaceuticals

Sachin Shah CFO B.Com. CA. Associated with the company since 2013as senior manager, finance and processes. Appointed CFO in Sep’16. Previously with ICICI Bank, Avendus Capital Pvt Ltd.

Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research

Promoters55.9%

FII8.7%

DII10.8%

Public24.6%

Page 13: Eris LifeSciences -- ed 2 · This report is intended for the sole use of the Recipient. Disclosures, and analyst certifications are given in the Appendix. Anand Rathi Research India

Appendix Analyst Certification The views expressed in this Research Report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst(s) in this report. The research analysts are bound by stringent internal regulations and also legal and statutory requirements of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (hereinafter “SEBI”) and the analysts’ compensation are completely delinked from all the other companies and/or entities of Anand Rathi, and have no bearing whatsoever on any recommendation that they have given in the Research Report. Anand Rathi Ratings Definitions

Analysts’ ratings and the corresponding expected returns take into account our definitions of Large Caps (>US$1bn) and Mid/Small Caps (<US$1bn) as described in the Ratings Table below:

Ratings Guide (12 months) Buy Hold Sell Large Caps (>US$1bn) >15% 5-15% <5% Mid/Small Caps (<US$1bn) >25% 5-25% <5% Research Disclaimer and Disclosure inter-alia as required under Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014

Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd. (hereinafter refer as ARSSBL) (Research Entity) is a subsidiary of Anand Rathi Financial Services Ltd. ARSSBL is a corporate trading and clearing member of Bombay Stock Exchange Ltd, National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. (NSEIL), Multi Stock Exchange of India Ltd (MCX-SX) and also depository participant with National Securities Depository Ltd (NSDL) and Central Depository Services Ltd. ARSSBL is engaged in the business of Stock Broking, Depository Participant and Mutual Fund distributor.

The research analysts, strategists, or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of Anand Rathi research have received compensation based upon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors and firm revenues.

General Disclaimer: This Research Report (hereinafter called “Report”) is meant solely for use by the recipient and is not for circulation. This Report does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. The recommendations, if any, made herein are expression of views and/or opinions and should not be deemed or construed to be neither advice for the purpose of purchase or sale of any security, derivatives or any other security through ARSSBL nor any solicitation or offering of any investment /trading opportunity on behalf of the issuer(s) of the respective security (ies) referred to herein. These information / opinions / views are not meant to serve as a professional investment guide for the readers. No action is solicited based upon the information provided herein. Recipients of this Report should rely on information/data arising out of their own investigations. Readers are advised to seek independent professional advice and arrive at an informed trading/investment decision before executing any trades or making any investments. This Report has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed by ARSSBL to be reliable. ARSSBL or its directors, employees, affiliates or representatives do not assume any responsibility for, or warrant the accuracy, completeness, adequacy and reliability of such information / opinions / views. While due care has been taken to ensure that the disclosures and opinions given are fair and reasonable, none of the directors, employees, affiliates or representatives of ARSSBL shall be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, consequential, punitive or exemplary damages, including lost profits arising in any way whatsoever from the information / opinions / views contained in this Report. The price and value of the investments referred to in this Report and the income from them may go down as well as up, and investors may realize losses on any investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. ARSSBL does not provide tax advice to its clients, and all investors are strongly advised to consult with their tax advisers regarding taxation aspects of any potential investment.

Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this Research only. We do not undertake to advise you as to any change of our views expressed in this Report. Research Report may differ between ARSSBL’s RAs and/ or ARSSBL’s associate companies on account of differences in research methodology, personal judgment and difference in time horizons for which recommendations are made. User should keep this risk in mind and not hold ARSSBL, its employees and associates responsible for any losses, damages of any type whatsoever.

Page 14: Eris LifeSciences -- ed 2 · This report is intended for the sole use of the Recipient. Disclosures, and analyst certifications are given in the Appendix. Anand Rathi Research India

ARSSBL and its associates or employees may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the investments in/ security of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such investments/ securities of company (ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) these and other activities of ARSSBL and its associates or employees may not be construed as potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall ARSSBL and its associates or employees or any third party involved in, or related to computing or compiling the information have any liability for any damages of any kind.

Details of Associates of ARSSBL and Brief History of Disciplinary action by regulatory authorities & its associates are available on our website i.e. www.rathionline.com

Disclaimers in respect of jurisdiction: This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject ARSSBL to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction(s). No action has been or will be taken by ARSSBL in any jurisdiction (other than India), where any action for such purpose(s) is required. Accordingly, this Report shall not be possessed, circulated and/or distributed in any such country or jurisdiction unless such action is in compliance with all applicable laws and regulations of such country or jurisdiction. ARSSBL requires such recipient to inform himself about and to observe any restrictions at his own expense, without any liability to ARSSBL. Any dispute arising out of this Report shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of the Courts in India.

Statements on ownership and material conflicts of interest, compensation - ARSSBL and Associates

Answers to the Best of the knowledge and belief of ARSSBL/ its Associates/ Research Analyst who is preparing this report

ARSSBL/its Associates/ Research Analyst/ his Relative have actual/beneficial ownership of one per cent or more securities of the subject company, at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the research report?

No

ARSSBL/its Associates/ Research Analyst/ his Relative have actual/beneficial ownership of one per cent or more securities of the subject company No

ARSSBL/its Associates/ Research Analyst/ his Relative have any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report? No

ARSSBL/its Associates/ Research Analyst/ his Relative have received any compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months No

ARSSBL/its Associates/ Research Analyst/ his Relative have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past twelve months

No

ARSSBL/its Associates/ Research Analyst/ his Relative have received any compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months

No

ARSSBL/its Associates/ Research Analyst/ his Relative have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months

No

ARSSBL/its Associates/ Research Analyst/ his Relative have received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report

No

ARSSBL/its Associates/ Research Analyst/ his Relative have served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company. No

Other Disclosures pertaining to distribution of research in the United States of America

This research report is a product of ARSSBL, which is the employer of the research analyst(s) who has prepared the research report. The research analyst(s) preparing the research report is/are resident outside the United States (U.S.) and are not associated persons of any U.S. regulated broker-dealer and therefore the analyst(s) is/are not subject to supervision by a U.S. broker-dealer, and is/are not required to satisfy the regulatory licensing requirements of FINRA or required to otherwise comply with U.S. rules or regulations regarding, among other things, communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

This report is intended for distribution by ARSSBL only to "Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Act, 1934 (the Exchange Act) and interpretations thereof by U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in reliance on Rule 15a 6(a)(2). If the recipient of this report is not a MajorInstitutional Investor as specified above, then it should not act upon this report and return the same to the sender. Further, this report may not be copied, duplicated and/or transmitted onward to any U.S. person, which is not the Major Institutional Investor.

In reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by the SEC in order to conduct certain business withMajor Institutional Investors, ARSSBL has entered into an agreement with a U.S. registered broker-dealer, Cabrera Capital Markets. ("Cabrera"). Transactions in securities discussed in this research report should be effected through Cabrera or another U.S. registered broker dealer.

1. ARSSBL or its Affiliates may or may not have been beneficial owners of the securities mentioned in this report.

2. ARSSBL or its affiliates may have or not managed or co-managed a public offering of the securities mentioned in the report in the past 12 months.

3. ARSSBL or its affiliates may have or not received compensation for investment banking services from the issuer of these securities in the past 12 months and do not expect to receive compensation for investment banking services from the issuer of these securities within the next three months.

4. However, one or more of ARSSBL or its Affiliates may, from time to time, have a long or short position in any of the securities mentioned herein and may buy or sell those securities or options thereon, either on their own account or on behalf of their clients.

5. As of the publication of this report, ARSSBL does not make a market in the subject securities.

6. ARSSBL or its Affiliates may or may not, to the extent permitted by law, act upon or use the above material or the conclusions stated above, or the research or analysis on which they are based before the material is published to recipients and from time to time, provide investment banking, investment management or other services for or solicit to seek to obtain investment banking, or other securities business from, any entity referred to in this report.

© 2018. This report is strictly confidential and is being furnished to you solely for your information. All material presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright to ARSSBL. None of the material, its content, or any copy of such material or content, may be altered in any way, transmitted, copied or reproduced (in whole or in part) or redistributed in any form to any other party, without the prior express written permission of ARSSBL. All trademarks, service marks and logos used in this report are trademarks or service marks or registered trademarks or service marks of ARSSBL or its affiliates, unless specifically mentioned otherwise.

Additional information on recommended securities/instruments is available on request.

ARSSBL registered address: 4th Floor, Silver Metropolis, Jaicoach Compound, Opposite Bimbisar Nagar, Goregaon (East), Mumbai - 400 063. Tel No: +91 22 4001 3700 | Fax No: +91 22 4001 3770 | CIN: U67120MH1991PLC064106.