ERCOT PUBLIC 1/20/2015 1 2015 RTP Update January, 2015
Slide 2
ERCOT PUBLIC 1/20/2015 2 Outline 2015 RTP Overview 2015 RTP
Scope 2015 RTP Input Assumptions Next steps
Slide 3
ERCOT PUBLIC 1/20/2015 3 2015 RTP Overview: Cases studied
Summer peak reliability basecase for years 2016, 2018, 2020, and
2021 Off-peak (min load) reliability basecase for 2018 Sensitivity
cases for summer peak cases of years 2016 and 2020 Sensitivity
cases for off-peak case for 2018.
Slide 4
ERCOT PUBLIC 1/20/2015 4 2015 RTP Overview: Analysis SCOPF
Contingency analysis (Single event) Multiple element contingency
analysis G(generator)-1+N-1 X(transformer)-1+N-1 N-1-1 and cascade
analysis Short circuit analysis Analysis of sensitivity cases
Economic analysis
Slide 5
ERCOT PUBLIC 1/20/2015 5 RTP Scope RTP scope and process
document and responses to comments are posted on the RPG meeting
page Outstanding items on the RTP Scope document Details regarding
short circuit analysis Details regarding sensitivity cases
Noteworthy updates from 2014 scope Updated performance criteria per
TPL-001-4 Dynamic ratings to be used in reliability analysis
Slide 6
ERCOT PUBLIC 1/20/2015 6 Dynamic Ratings in Reliability
Analysis Weather Zone90 th percentile temperature (F) Coast102.4
East106.2 Far West110.4 North Central108.4 North109.0 South
Central105.5 South104.0 West107.3 90 th percentile temperature for
each weather zone was derived based on 30 years of temperature data
(1984-2013) Temperature data based on historical data from ERCOT
databases
Slide 7
ERCOT PUBLIC 1/20/2015 7 RTP Load by weather zone Year Coast
East North North Central South Central South West Far West NCP
Total 2016 26,0842,7711,74926,30013,0946,5402,2573,12481,920
201826,8832,8221,80327,00313,8036,9132,3143,45384,994
202027,5222,8941,84827,69014,4797,2842,3903,65687,763
202127,7662,9211,76428,03414,8457,4702,4293,76488,993 RTP weather
zone load based on the higher-of SSWG summer peak weather zone load
and ERCOT 90 th percentile load forecast Zones where ERCOT 90 th
percentile forecast is higher are presented in red font Note:
Weather zone loads expressed in MW
Slide 8
ERCOT PUBLIC 1/20/2015 8 Next steps Create and publish RTP
reliability start cases Conduct N-1 SCOPF and contingency analysis
Post contingency definitions and resulting violations Corrective
action plans such as transmission upgrades or additions will be
tested in collaboration with respective transmission owners Create
and post N-1 Secure case Conduct G-1+N-1 and X-1+N-1 screen and
identify corrective action plans to address violations
Slide 9
ERCOT PUBLIC 1/20/2015 9 Questions?
Slide 10
ERCOT PUBLIC 1/20/2015 10 Appendix
Slide 11
ERCOT PUBLIC 1/20/2015 11 SSWG load Year Coast East North North
Central South Central South West Far West NCP Total
201626,0842,7711,74924,69513,0946,3972,2573,12480,171
201726,4462,7951,76624,96813,4476,4752,2803,32281,499
201826,8832,8221,80325,32213,8036,7922,3143,45383,191
201927,2282,8491,82625,60414,1316,8022,3523,56584,356
202027,5222,8941,84825,91014,4797,0782,3903,65685,777
202127,7662,9211,76426,31414,8457,2222,4293,76487,024 Load based on
October 2014 SSWG Data Set B cases Includes self served load, does
not include losses Note: Weather zone loads expressed in MW
Slide 12
ERCOT PUBLIC 1/20/2015 12 ERCOT 90 th percentile load forecast
Year CoastEast North North Central South Central South West Far
West NCP Total
201623,1332,3471,57326,30011,9776,5402,0152,71576,601
201723,3352,3541,56326,65412,0606,7282,0352,83277,561
201823,5372,3601,55427,00312,1416,9132,0542,94978,511
201923,7392,3671,54427,34812,2217,0992,0743,06579,456
202023,9372,3731,53427,69012,3007,2842,0943,18180,393
202124,1412,3801,52528,03412,3787,4702,1143,29781,338 Includes self
served load, does not include losses Note: Weather zone loads
expressed in MW
Slide 13
ERCOT PUBLIC 1/20/2015 13 Wind dispatch output levels Dispatch
based on confidence-percentile analysis Hours with high loads were
selected (Hours were ERCOT load higher than 95 th percentile Wind
output levels in the basecase based on 15 th percentile output
levels, but not to exceed levels based on 25 th percentile level
Weather ZoneBasecase Dispatch Not to exceed Coast1%4% East--
North3%8% North Central1%3% South Central2%4% Southern10%18%
West3%7%
Slide 14
ERCOT PUBLIC 1/20/2015 14 New generation per PG 6.9
requirements Project Name In-service Date Capacity Added* (MW)
FuelCountyTDSP Weather Zone Baytown Chiller
6/1/2015270GasChambersCenterpointCOAST PHR Peakers
11/30/2015390GasGalvestonCenterpointCOAST Panda Temple 2 G
8/1/2015790GasBellOncorNORTH Antelope Station
6/1/2016359**GasHaleSharylandNORTH Goldsmith Peakers
6/1/2015341GasEctorOncorWEST Keechi Wind 138 kV Joplin
1/5/2015102WindJackBRAZOSNORTH Grandview Phase II (Conway Windfarm)
10/1/2015389WindCarsonShalylandNORTH Jumbo Road Wind
4/15/2015300WindCastroSharylandNORTH Route66 Wind
8/15/2015150WindRandallSharylandNORTH Spinning Spur Wind Three
5/31/2015194WindOldhamSharylandNORTH Midway Wind
12/28/2016161WindSan PatricioAEPSOUTH Cameron County Wind
9/1/2015165WindCameronSTECSOUTH Patriot (Petronilla) Wind
8/15/2015178WindNuecesAEPSOUTH Sendero Wind 8/31/201578WindJim
HoggAEPSOUTH Los Vientos III 3/31/2015200WindStarrAEPSOUTH Javelina
Wind 12/31/2015250WindZapataAEPSOUTH Los Vientos V
12/15/2015200WindStarrAEPSOUTH Los Vientos IV
12/31/2015200WindStarrAEPSOUTH Mesquite Creek W
3/31/2015211WindBordenWETTWEST South Clay Windfarm
6/15/2015200WindClayONCORWEST Stephens Ranch Wind Energy Phase b
4/1/2015165WindBordenWETTWEST Green Pastures W
2/17/2015300WindKnoxAEPWEST Rattlesnake Wind Ph 1
9/1/2015211WindGlasscockWETTWEST Longhorn Energy Center
12/31/2015361WindBriscoeSharylandWEST South Plains Wind I
7/31/2015200WindFloydSharylandWEST South Plains II
12/1/2015150WindFloydSharylandWEST Wake Wind
11/1/2015299WindDickensWETTWEST Briscoe Wind
12/31/2015150WindBriscoeSharylandWEST *Based on Generator
Interconnection data **Capacity not available to ERCOT throughout
summer
