Equity Weekly Market Outlook - Experts Prediction On Market Trends - Mansukh Investment & Trading Solutions

8/8/2019 Equity Weekly Market Outlook - Experts Prediction On Market Trends - Mansukh Investment & Trading Solutions.

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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report For Private circulation Only For Our Clients Only

Mansukh Securities and Finance LtdOffice: 306, Pratap Bhavan, 5, Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg, New Delhi-110002Phone: 011-30123450/1/3/5 Fax: 011-30117710 Email: [email protected]: www.moneysukh.com

SEBI Regn No. BSE: INB010985834 / NSE: INB23078143PMS Regn No. INP00000238

Sensex 18,860 -4.22%Nifty 5,655 -4.23%

Gold(US$/oz) 1,360.5 -0.67%

Re/US$ 45.35 0.02%

Dow 11,787 0.96%

Nasdaq 2,755 1.92%

FX Res (US$ Bn) 294 .011 -1.12%

Upto 14.01.11 FIIs DIIs

Total Jan 2011 -4,279.14 3,034.9Total 2010 -4,279.14 3,034.9S o urce: bs eindia.co m

Sectors Close %

Auto 9,259 -2.40

Bankex 11,851 -5.29

CD 5,958 -2.52

CG 13,818 -5.88

FMCG 3,586 -1.55

Healthcare 6,483 -2.75IT 6,439 -3.62

Metal 16,372 -3.38

Oil & Gas 9,978 -5.14

PSU 8,736 -4.09

Realty 2,524 -5.30

Weekly Sector Movement

DATA MATRIX FOR THE WEEK

10th Jan 2011 - 14th Jan 2011

Net FII /DI I Equity Activity (Rs Cr)

Weekly Markets

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WEEK GONE BY

The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex tumbled 831.37 points or 4.22% to 18,860.44 during tweek ended January 14, 2011. The BSE Mid-cap index fell 3.31% to 7,223.78 and the Small-cap inddeclined 3.94% to 8,993.84. All the sectoral indices on the BSE were in the negative terrain; CapiGoods (CG) was down 863.64 points or 5.88% to 13,818.04, Realty was down 141.29 points or 5.30to 2,524.31, Banking was down 661.58 points or 5.29% to 11,850.60, Oil & Gas was down 540.points or 5.14% to 9,978.14 and Public Sector Undertaking (PSU) was down by 372.88 points 4.09% to 8,735.97 were the major losers on the index. The S&P CNX Nifty declined 250.05 points

4.23% to 5,654.55. On the National Stock Exchange (NSE), Bank Nifty fumbled 5.61% to 10,432.9CNX IT declined 3.62% to 7,068.20, CNX Mid-cap decreased 3.26% to 8,211.25 and CNX Nifty Juniwas down by 2.99% to 11,293.90.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the equity segment in tweek with gross purchases of Rs 14,633.30 crore and gross sales of Rs 18,020.30 crore, leading to a noutflow of Rs 3,387 crore.

India 's food price index rose 16.91% on annual basis du ring wee

ended Jan 1, marginally l ow er compared wi th 18.32% recorded in the previous w eek. The index

industrial production (IIP) expanded at a miserable pace of 2.7% against a robust 10.3% in th

previous mont h .

Weekly Market Outlook - 15.01.2011

SNAPSHOT

It turned out to be another week of annihilation for Indian stocks markets which got butchered four out of the five trading sessions, leading to substantial losses of over four percent, a biggeweekly decline in last six weeks, as the triple 'I's viz. Inflation, Interest Rates and IIP numbers whicontinued to haunt the domestic benchmarks quadrupled with Infosys being the new addition the list. The turmoil on the last trading day of the week proved even costlier for the bourses whic

have breached various vital support levels in last two consecutive weeks. The BSE's 30-shasensitive index, Sensex drifted to its lowest closing level in nearly seven weeks and the NSE's 5share broadly followed index, Nifty hit four-month closing low to settle way below thpsychological levels of 19,000 and 5,700 respectively.

WEEK AHEAD

The Indian markets witnessed tremendous selling pressure in the passing week though the global cues were not as bad as the domestic marketperformed but the inflation worries and associated with it interest rate hike by the Reserve bank of India in its upcoming policy review kept thmarkets haunting. Now before the RBI's decision on Jan 25, all eyes will be on Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee's meet with his state

counterparts on January 19 to discuss ways to rein in the rising food prices. The quarterly results season is likely to keep the markets buzzing innext week. There will be lots of important result announcements during the week like, Axis Bank, L&T Power Finance, HCL Technology, TCSPetronet LNG, NIIT Technology, Indiabulls group companies and Mastek etc. Apart from this, Tata Steel's follow on public offer (FPO) wilreportedly open on 19 January and close on 21 January 2011. Now at current juncture a sentiment seems to be eroded though next level osupport could be around 5580-5600 (200 dma). Any closing below this level may open the flood gates and we might see some new lows ofcurrent fiscal near to 5400-5450. On the flip side any bounce back from current levels may reap indices towards 5800 level where we might seesome sort of consolidation. Any break out above this may generate some suggestive buying opportunities though 6000-6050 might be the nexress zone. HAPPY TRADING.

make more, for su

Volume* & Volatili ty Index (Nifty - Jan 2011)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3-Jan 4-Jan 5-Jan 6-Jan 7-Jan 10-Jan 11-Jan 12-Jan 13-Jan 14-Jan

*NSE Cash Volume (Rs billion) F & O Volume (Rs billion) Volatility Index %
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TREND LINE CONJECTURE:-

MOVING AVERAGES AND THE CANDLE STICK PATTERN:

Remember we have drawn trend line joining two significant bottom5348 and 57216 in the last week. On10 dec 2010 spot index took somerucial support exactly to this trend line. Currently spot index shattered this trend line with substantial volumes therefore we are expectingome more weakness in upcoming weak though 5580-5600 might be the next level of support. On the upper side if we connect two tops 633ns 6181 respectively, we might see some technical bouce back near to 6050-6060 in the upcoming sessions..

ame in Sensex , channel line drawn from the lows of 17819 and 19074 also broke in the last session. Now next level of support could beround 18500 wher possibility of consolidation couldnt be rule out. Contrary to this opinion joining two significant tops 20961and 20531rovides crucial ress at around 20550.

The short term moving average is an indicator of the trend in the near future. The value for the short term moving average (20 DMA) is at 5967 medium term moving average (50 DMA) is at5985. Presently, the Nifty trading below20 and 50dma, which would be treated as oversold territHence possibility of bounce back from 5580-5600 (200 dma) could be seen in upcoming sessions though upside scenario could be limited..

IBONACCI RETRACEMENT:-Entire rally from the lows of 5721 to 6181 took 16 trading sessions without any substantial correction. If we applying Fibonacci theory and tetracement of this current rally, 50% and 80% retracement stood at 5950 and 5880 respectively. Any break down above this level could open

lood gates and possibility of losing another 100-200 pts should be on higher side.




INDEX - TECHNICAL STAN D POIN T

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Weekly Market Outlookmake more, for su

INDEX Value Chg

NIFTY

an Fut 5654 -4.4%

an OI 22682450 11.0%

Feb Fut 5679 -4.5%

Feb OI 1536600 56.3%

BANK NIFTY

an Fut 10440 -5.8%

an OI 1294000 -12.1%

Feb Fut 10482 -5.7%

Feb OI 87425 58.2%

CNX IT

an Fut 7078 -4.0%

Jan OI 20250 -27.0%

Index Composition

Date 14.01.11


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N i ft y F u t Ch a r t

B A N K N I F T Y F UT

RETRACEMENT AND GAP CONJECTURE:-On 09 sept10, Sensex formed a gap up of 46 points which might be an exhaustive one, having upper and lower values of 18799 and 18espectively. As per Japanese candle stick theory, any gap is an incitement for bulls/bears to get their positions in order to fill such gaps. As this

was created on last sept, the Sensex has already consumed more than 60 trading sessions and the gap has not filled yet. Unless this gap is filled,Sensex will continue to move in upward trajectory in near term.

RETRACEMENT COUNTER RETRACEMENT

HIGHS LOWS POINTS DAYS LOWS HIGHS POINTS DAYS

15600 13320 2280 21 13320 16002 2682 14

16002 14684 1318 11 14684 15958 1274 7

15958 15357 601 5 15357 16435 1078 3

Analyzing above table we scrutinize that there is continuous faster retracement taking place in the Sensex, which is an optimistic signal. There three downward moves.

The move from 15,600 to 13,220 took 21 days and it got retraced in 14 days.

The move from 16,002 to 14,684 took 11 days and it almost got retraced in 7 days.The move from 15,958 to 15,357 took 5 days and it got fully retraced in just 3 days.

make more, for suWeekly Market Outlook


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OSCILLATORS



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N i ft y F u t Ch a r t

B A N K N I F T Y F UT

OSCILLATORS CURRENT AVERAGE

MACD (E9,E24,S9) -57.92 -1

RSI (14,E9) 32.76 41.65

STOCHASTICS %K= 22.50 %D= 21.26

INAL VERDICT:

nvestors with weekly perspective can consider cautious trading in spot indices. It is evident from the charts of the nifty tollowing a symmetrical triangle formation in past few trading sessions. As the property of this triangle the markets can moveither direction likely for the up side target of 6070 and the down side target of 5580.

The nifty is presently trading below its 10, 20 and 50 day moving averages however it is trading above 200 DSMA. The 14-day relattrength index is featuring slightly in oversold territory which indicates possible bounce backs in up coming sessions.

The weekly moving average convergence divergence oscillators are hovering in the positive territory but it has negative cross ohowever the daily moving average convergence divergence oscillator is in negative territory with positive cross over, signalmixed information. Hence traders are advised to use wait and watch policy till 5580 wouldn't be breakdown.




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3rd 2nd 1st 1st 2nd 3rd

Bajaj Auto Ltd 1147 1204 1225 1246.90 1282 1317 1373 Negative

Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd. 2079 2143 2169 2195.25 2233 2271 2335 Negative

Bharti Airtel Ltd. 325 335 339 342.70 349 355 365 Neutral

Cipla Ltd. 311 328 334 339.55 350 361 377 Neutral

DLF Ltd. 241 251 255 259.00 265 272 282 Negative

HDFC Bank Ltd. 1744 1919 1986 2053.00 2162 2271 2447 Negative

Hero Honda Motors Ltd. 1740 1782 1801 1818.90 1843 1866 1908 Neutral

Hindalco Industries Ltd. 212 222 226 229.30 236 242 252 Neutral

Hindustan Unilever Ltd. 285 295 299 302.60 309 316 327 Neutral

Housing Development Finance Corporation Ltd. 563 608 625 641.55 669 696 740 Neutral

ICICI Bank Ltd. 929 976 993 1010.55 1040 1070 1117 Negative

Infosys Technologies Ltd. 3049 3136 3169 3201.95 3256 3310 3397 Negative

ITC Ltd. 156 164 167 170.25 175 180 188 Neutral

Jaiprakash Associates Ltd. 85 90 92 93.65 97 100 105 Negative

Jindal Steel & Power Ltd. 611 646 663 679.85 698 716 750 Neutral

Larsen & Toubro Ltd. 1592 1657 1683 1709.35 1747 1785 1849 Negative

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. 695 718 728 739.05 751 764 786 Neutral

Maruti Suzuki I ndia Ltd. 1187 1238 1257 1275.30 1308 1340 1391 Negative

NTPC Ltd. 171 180 184 186.80 193 198 207 Negative

Oil & Natural Gas Corpn. Ltd. 1107 1148 1163 1178.75 1204 1229 1270 Neutral

Reliance Communications Ltd. 130 135 137 138.40 141 144 149 Neutral

Reliance Industries Ltd. 947 978 990 1001.15 1021 1040 1071 Neutral

Reliance Infrastructure Ltd 746 776 787 798.25 817 836 867 Neutral

State Bank Of India 2331 2429 2466 2502.25 2563 2625 2723 Negative

Sterlite Industries (India) Ltd. 157 168 172 176.35 183 190 201 NeutralTata Consultancy Services Ltd. 1063 1096 1107 1118.70 1140 1162 1195 Neutral

Tata Motors Ltd. 1089 1141 1160 1178.60 1212 1245 1297 Neutral

Tata Power Company Ltd. 1235 1296 1329 1362.30 1391 1420 1481 Positive

Tata Steel Ltd. 586 606 614 621.70 634 646 666 Negative

Wipro Ltd. 428 445 454 463.05 471 478 495 Neutral

SUPPORT CLOSE PRICE

14.01.11

RESISTANCE

SENSEX 30-TECHNICAL LEVELS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK ENDED 21st Jan 2011

INCLINATIOSCRIP



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3rd 2nd 1st 1st 2nd 3rd

Allahabad Bank 190 196 198 200.45 204 207 213 8954

Alstom Projects India Ltd. 611 634 645 655.75 668 680 703 4395

Andhra Bank 123 127 129 130.00 133 135 139 6305

Ashok Leyland Ltd. 54 57 58 59.25 61 63 66 7882

Aurobindo Pharma Ltd. 1222 1265 1281 1296.55 1324 1351 1394 7549

Bajaj Hindusthan Ltd. 92 97 98 100.15 103 106 110 2287

BEML Ltd. 900 927 938 949.95 965 980 1007 3956

CESC Ltd. 315 331 337 343.05 353 363 379 4286

Chennai Petroleum Corporation. Ltd. 212 219 223 225.90 229 233 240 3364

Cummins India Ltd. 644 685 703 719.70 744 769 811 14250

Divi'S Laboratories Ltd. 592 610 618 624.90 636 647 666 8284

Educomp Solutions Ltd. 459 482 491 499.65 514 528 551 4774

Great Eastern Shipping Company Ltd. 287 306 313 319.75 332 344 362 4869

GVK Power & Infrastructure Ltd. 34 36 36 36.70 38 39 40 5796

Hindustan Construction Company Ltd. 41 43 43 43.90 45 46 47 2663

Hotel Leela Venture Ltd. 42 43 44 44.40 45 46 47 1722Housing Development & Infra structure Ltd. 146 155 159 162.65 168 174 183 6750

IDBI Bank Ltd 137 142 144 146.45 150 153 159 14418

India Cements Ltd. 95 99 100 101.70 104 106 110 3124

Indian Bank 196 204 207 210.25 215 220 229 9036

Indian Hotels Company Ltd. 97 98 99 99.15 100 101 103 7530

IVRCL Infrastructures & Projects Ltd. 102 107 109 110.15 113 116 120 2941

JSW Steel Ltd. 896 937 953 969.20 995 1021 1063 21625

Lanco Infratech Ltd. 49 52 53 54.75 57 59 63 13183

Lupin Ltd. 434 448 454 459.55 468 476 489 20501

Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd. 48 50 51 51.50 53 54 56 3245

Moser Baer India Ltd. 51 54 56 57.05 59 61 64 960

Mphasis Ltd. 619 649 663 677.55 693 709 739 14225

Nagarjuna Construction Company Ltd. 107 114 116 118.85 123 127 134 3049Oracle Financial Services Software Ltd 2093 2148 2170 2191.30 2225 2258 2313 18384

Patel Engineering Ltd. 239 254 260 265.35 275 284 299 1853

Petronet LNG Ltd. 108 117 121 126.20 130 134 142 9465

Piramal Healthcare Ltd. 463 468 470 472.40 475 477 482 9874

Praj Industries Ltd. 71 78 81 84.10 87 91 97 1554

Punj Lloyd Ltd. 92 97 99 100.30 103 106 110 3331

Rolta India Ltd. 132 137 139 140.35 144 147 152 2264

Shipping Corpn. Of India Ltd. 115 119 120 121.40 124 126 130 5655

Sintex Industries Ltd. 148 158 162 165.10 171 177 187 4507

Sterling Biotech Ltd. 91 97 98 100.30 104 107 113 2687

Syndicate Bank 95 100 101 103.20 106 109 114 5387

Tata Chemicals Ltd. 359 370 376 382.20 388 393 405 9737

Tata Global Be verages Ltd 91 98 101 104.55 109 113 120 6465Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra) Ltd. 18 18 18 18.45 19 19 19 3500

Tech Mahindra Ltd. 639 661 669 677.30 691 705 727 8515

Titan Industries Ltd. 3143 3292 3351 3410.55 3500 3590 3739 15139

Ultratech Cement Ltd. 928 973 997 1019.80 1042 1063 1108 27946

United Phosphorus Ltd. 134 145 149 153.90 160 167 178 7107

Vij aya Bank Ltd 84 88 90 91.35 94 97 101 3960

Voltas Ltd. 196 202 204 206.85 210 213 219 6844

Welspun Corp Ltd. 143 150 152 155.05 159 164 171 3172

SUPPORT CLOSE PRI CE

14.01.11

RESISTANCE

NSE MID CAP 50-TECHNICAL LEVELS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK ENDED 21st J an 2011Market Ca

(Rs CroreSCRIP



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FORTHCOMING CORPORATE ACTIONS


Ex-Date Company Name NSE - Symbol Purpose

17-Jan-11 Automotive Axles Limited AUTOAXLES DIVIDEND-RS.8.50 PER SHARE

18-Jan-11 Siemens Limited SIEMENS DIVIDEND-RS.5/- PER SHARE

18-Jan-11 Steel Authority of India Limited SAIL INTERIM DIVIDEND-RS.1.20 PER SHARE

20-Jan-11 Hexaware Technologies Limited HEXAWARE SPECIAL INTERIM DIVIDEND-RE.1/- PER SHARE

20-Jan-11 IOL Netcom Limited IOLN AGM

20-Jan-11 Wyeth Limited WYETH INTERIM DIVIDEND-RS.15/- PER SHARE

20-Jan-11 Mid-Day Multimedia Limited MID-DAY SCHEME OF ARRANGEMENT

20-Jan-11 Pfizer Limited PFIZER INTERIM DIVIDEND-RS.12.50 PER SHARE

21-Jan-11 Power Finance Corporation Limited PFC INTERIM DIVIDEND

21-Jan-11 Coromandel International Limited COROMANDEL INTERIM DIVIDEND-RS.4/- PER SHARE

24-Jan-11 Sterling Tools Limited STERTOOLS INTERIM DIVIDEND

24-Jan-11 HCL Technologies Limited HCLTECH 2ND INTERIM DIVIDEND

25-Jan-11 Nelcast Limited NELCAST SPECIAL DIVIDEND

25-Jan-11 TVS Motor Company Limited TVSMOTOR INTERIM DIVIDEND

27-Jan-11 Hindustan Motors Limited HINDMOTOR CAPITAL REDUCTION

28-Jan-11 Godrej Consumer Products Limited GODREJCP 3RD INTERIM DIVIDEND

28-Jan-11 MRF Limited MRF AGM/FINAL & SPECIAL DIVID RS.19 & RS.25 P/S

28-Jan-11 Amara Raja Batteries Limited AMARAJABAT SPECIAL DIVIDEND

1-Feb-11 KCP Limited KCP 3RD INTERIM DIVIDEND

1-Feb-11 IPCA Laboratories Limited IPCALAB 2ND INTERIM DIVIDEND

2-Feb-11 Bharat Electronics Limited BEL INTERIM DIVIDEND

2-Feb-11 Sundaram Clayton Limited SUNCLAYTON INTERIM DIVIDEND

2-Feb-11 Sun TV Network Limited SUNTV INTERIM DIVIDEND

2-Feb-11 Walchandnagar Industries Limited WALCHANNAG DIVIDEND-RE.1/- PER SHARE

4-Feb-11 Shree Cements Limited SHREECEM INTERIM DIVIDEND

10-Feb-11 Escorts Limited ESCORTS AGM AND DIVIDEND RS.1.50 PER SHARE

10-Feb-11 Aurobindo Pharma Limited AUROPHARMA FACE VALUE SPLIT FROM RS.5/- TO RE.1/-

11-Feb-11 Triveni Engineering & Industries Limited TRIVENI AGM/FINAL & SPECIAL DIVID RE.0.20 & RE.0.15 P


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Mansukh Securities and Finance LtdOffice: 306, Pratap Bhavan, 5, Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg, New Delhi-110002Phone: 011-30123450/1/3/5 Fax: 011-30117710 Email: [email protected]


Total No. of Calls Profitable Calls Positional/Hold Exit/Stop Loss Success Rate

33 22 0 11 66.67%

EQUITY CALLS PERFORMANCE FOR THE WEEK ENDED 14th Jan 2011

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NAME DESIGNATION E-MAIL

Varun Gupta Head - Research [email protected]

Pashupati N ath Jha Research Analyst [email protected]

Vikram Singh Research Analyst [email protected]

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Equity Weekly Market Outlook - Experts Prediction On Market Trends - Mansukh Investment & Trading Solutions