Equity Research Workshop Session 1

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    Equity Research Workshop

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    Outcome of the Session Course

    By the end of the course the participant will be Skilled in:

    Handling Microsoft Excel efficiently & Effectively

    Industry Analysis

    Economic Factor Analysis

    Company Analysis

    Advanced Financial Statement Analysis

    Factoring in Rationale Assumptions

    Building financial models

    Implementing Discounted Cash Flow Models

    Building rational investment thesis

    Report writing

    Client Interaction

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    Session wise Outcome

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    Session Outcome

    Session 1 -Getting a broader view of Equity Research

    -Brushing up the basics

    - Economic Factor Analysis

    - Industry Analysis

    Session 2 -Handling Microsoft Excel Efficiently & Effectively

    -Company Analysis

    Session 3 - Advanced Financial Statement Analysis

    - Factoring in Rational Assumption

    Session 4 - Factoring in Rational Assumption

    - Building Financial Models

    Session 5 - Learning & Implementing Various Valuation Techniques

    Session 6 - Building rational investment thesis- Report writing

    - Client Interaction

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    Session 1

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    Outcome of Session 1

    Participants will be skilled in:

    Getting a broader view of Equity Research

    Brushing up the basics

    Economic Factor Analysis Industry Analysis

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    Prerequisite

    To get the most out of the sessions: Participate in the discussion

    Do the assignments religiously

    Raise your hand if you have a question. Depending upon the time, you

    will get an opportunity to ask a question. Or else it will be answered atthe end of the session.

    During the concept delivery, if you have any question, please note it

    on the notepad.

    Sharing anything & everything that is coming in your way of fulfilling

    that you are up to fulfilling

    Not holding back anything with you. Share it with me and/ or with

    your mentor.

    Do not be afraid to ask a question.

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    Prerequisite

    To get the most out of the sessions:

    Let us know immediately if something is not working for

    you.

    Mentoring is not optional.

    Do not miss any of the sessions. Please be unreasonable toattend each & every session.

    What you get is what you are looking for!

    Many of you may be looking for getting some notes,

    reference material. You will get that, but its a workshop!

    Equity Research will happen here, in the classroom!! So no

    attention on going back and understanding it later through

    notes.

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    Prerequisite

    Please make sure that your cell phones are on silent mode.

    I hope you have already conveyed it your kith-n-kin about

    your participation in the workshop. Only pick up the

    urgent calls by stepping outside the classroom.

    Please return your name tags at the end of the session.

    Most Important, You must Enjoy the Session!

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    Questions and Queries, if any?

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    Mentoring Structure

    You will be allotted mentors in a while & you will be part of a group along

    with the mentor.

    Next 15-20 minutes, you will interact with the mentors.

    In that interaction, please fix up the timings that are suitable for you to

    interact with the mentors.

    Please keep the mentoring call timings fixed as much as possible.

    Participant needs to call the mentor.

    Also, please give your respective mentor your expectations from the

    session in the sheet that will be provided to you.

    Please exchange the phone numbers.

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    What Equity Research is ALL

    About?

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    What Equity Research is ALL About?

    Financial Statement Analysis

    Economy Analysis

    Industry Analysis

    Company Analysis

    Financial Statement Analysis

    Valuation

    Recommendations

    Fat Salaries

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    What Equity Research is ALL About?

    Management interactions

    Lot of work in Core Finance

    Analyst Meets

    Investment World

    Fascination

    Money; Wealth

    Excitement

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    Equity Research Demo

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    Demo

    Infosys

    We have a Buy recommendation on Infosys and have set a

    target price of Rs3,536 indicating an upside of 26% from

    current level.

    Our Buy for Infosys is driven by

    We expect a strong recovery in the US economy leading release of

    IT budgets from the US clients in turn leading to revenue growth of

    37% (rupee term) and EPS growth of 25%.

    Further scope for maintaining EBIDTA margins given multiple

    levers like lower utilization rates, scale benefits, onsite-offshoremix, employee mix, etc.

    Clear indication of improvement in the billing rates & increasing

    mix of high end consulting work

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    Demo

    Our Buy for Infosys is driven by We have estimated Infosys FY11 EPS of Rs136 indicating a YoY

    growth of 25%.

    We expect RoE to improve base on better employee utilization &

    billing rates leading to improving revenue productivity, although

    higher tax rates offset that effect slightly.

    Currently, Infosys is trading at 20x our FY11E EPS. This valuation,

    we believe is lower compared to its peers that are trading in the

    range of 23-27x their 1 year forward EPS. And hence we have

    valued Infosys at 26x its FY11E EPS of Rs136 setting the target

    price of Rs3,536

    What have we factored in: Employee addition of 30,000 for next year

    Utilization rates moving up from 72% to 75%

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    Demo

    What have we factored in:

    EBIDTA margins stable 32.5%

    USDINR rate of Rs48 (depreciation of 2.2%)

    Capital Expenditure of Rs12,000 mn

    Tax rates of 22% (as the STPIs will come out of tax free

    period)

    Equity dilution of 0.3% on conversion of ESOPs

    Interest on other income going up as cash is expected

    to go up due to improving collection period

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    Demo

    Revenue Driver

    Strong employee addition of 30,000

    Improving utilization rates

    Increase in the billing rates

    US and European economies are improving and

    spending on software is expected to increase.

    Company management has said that the clients are

    quite optimistic about the quick budget releases and

    expect new projects to flow in as well. US financial markets have shown early signs of

    recovery.

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    Demo

    EBIDTA Margin Drivers Higher utilization rates leading to higher revenue at the same costs

    Better billing rates

    Hiring about 70% of freshers of the total 30,000

    Hiring includes non-IT graduates that come at relatively cheapercosts with equivalent skills

    Increasing proportion of consulting business to bring in higher

    margins

    Fixed costs projects increasing. Fixed cost projects typically show

    higher profitability.

    Planning to increase the offshore employee by 2% leading tobetter margins

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    Demo

    Valuation

    We valued Infosys by using two methods:

    Relative valuation

    Relative Valuation P/E(FY11) = Payout ratio(h) *(1+gh)*

    (1- ((1+gh)/(1+keh))^n)/ (keh-gh) +

    Payout ratio(n)/ (Ken-gn)*1/(1+Ken)^n

    Ke Cost of Equity

    Gh: Growth rate

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    Demo

    Relative Valuation

    We have factored in High growth rate of 25%

    Stable growth rate of 5%

    Beta High growth: 1.1

    Beta Stable growth: 0.7

    Market premium of 8%

    Rfr of 7.5%

    P/E (FY11) = 26

    And hence we have valued Infosys at 26x its FY11

    EPS of Rs136.

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    Demo

    Risks to our call

    US & European markets can go in double deep

    recession and the revenue growth could be

    adversely impacted. INR may appreciate due unforeseen reasons and

    can impact the revenues adversely

    Loss of key clients

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    So what is equity research

    really about? Identifying Undervalued stocks

    Timing

    Being ready to stand in uncertainty

    Knowing your clients requirements

    Being creative

    Asking right questions, at right time to

    right people

    Building a distinct view and doing good enough work forhaving conviction about your view

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    What it demands from you?

    Lot of reading across the spectrum

    Lot of interaction with the

    companies, their clients, theiremployees etc.

    Rigorous work on model making,valuations

    A lot of client interaction

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    Analysis

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    Analysis

    We will be using this word a lot through out our discussion.

    So, let me tell you what it means by doing Analysis

    Analyze what?

    Industry

    Economy Company

    Market share

    Company Management

    Risk

    Business Projects

    Share price, volume, pricing etc. etc. etc.

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    Analysis

    What does it mean by doing analysis?

    Reading through the economic, company, industry, annual reports

    Talking to company management

    Reading about the competitors

    Trying to identify the connections between different things that are

    happening around

    Doing a sample survey

    Testing/ tasting the products

    Observing the share prices; noting the

    Noting the data

    Arriving at conclusions

    Collecting enough data to build the argument

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    Analysis

    What will you be left with after doing analysis

    Understand new terms & terminologies

    Trend

    Declining

    Increasing Cyclical

    Whimsical/ no trend

    Insights: You may have some insights about the functional,

    technical aspects of the business, industry.

    Charts, sensitivity tables, etc.

    Conclusions

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    Analysis

    Three time periods where you can analyze:

    Historical State Analysis

    Current State Analysis

    Future Expectations Analysis

    Till the time we do not talk of analyzing the future

    prospects of the company, we will broadly talk

    about the historical & current state analysis

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    Analysis

    What is most important is you build your view

    about anything & every thing you see and

    observe.

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    Analysis

    Pitfall 1: Tunnels in Research

    By the way, Analysis is never going to end.

    So, what is most important is that always keep

    your analysis: Focused

    Time Bound

    Or else, you will keep moving in different

    tunnels without knowing how much is actuallygetting done.

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    Analysis

    Pit Fall 1: Tunnels in Research

    IT Sector

    Telecom Domain

    VAS

    VOIP

    GPRS

    Logistics Sector

    Reliance to invest into Deccan

    Aviation Sector

    Indian Airlines to break even by 2015

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    Analysis

    Handling it All?

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    Our Approach to Work

    Understand the basic Concept

    Understand the terminologies

    Understand in depths (Focused & Time

    Bound)

    Apply to the real life

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    Data Collection

    Never go for collecting all the data right from the

    start.

    First focus on the understanding of the concepts and

    then collect the data that is required.

    There is huge data available out there; you must be

    clear and choosy right from the beginning about the

    data collection. Because, in the end, you would have

    ended up analyzing unwanted, non-relevant, data

    resulting into no concrete outcome & time runningout of hands.

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    Equity Research Workshop

    Be-Do-Have

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    Groups

    Bulls

    Bears

    Special Gift for the winner group at the end of

    every session

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    Where are we Stand?

    We got the overview of:

    Session prerequisite

    We got the mentors with a small mentoring

    session what it takes to be Equity Research Analyst

    We got broader Equity markets

    After this break and before lunch, we will brush up

    the fundamentals and get grounded in the basicconcepts of finance.

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    After the Break 1

    We got the overview of:

    Session prerequisite

    We got the mentors with a small mentoring

    session what it takes to be Equity Research Analyst

    We got broader view on the Equity markets

    Now, we will brush up the fundamentals and get

    grounded in the basic concepts of finance.

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    Profit & Loss Account

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    Getting Grounded

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    Balance Sheet

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    Getting Grounded

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    Cash Flow Statement

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    Getting Grounded

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    Time Value of Money

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    Getting Grounded

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    Where are we Stand?

    Post the 1st Break, we have covered the basic

    concepts of reading:

    Profit & Loss Account

    Balance Sheet

    Cash Flow Statements

    Time Value of Money

    After this break, we will look at Economic Factor

    Analysis; where in we will see at how different

    economic factors affect the equity analysis.

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    Economic Factor Analysis

    Global Economy

    Domestic Macro economy

    Demand & Supply Shocks

    Government Policy

    Business Cycles

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    Economic Factor Analysis

    Let us understand how it emerged in the first

    place.

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    Economic Factor Analysis

    Global Economy

    The top-down analysis of a firms prospects must

    start with the global economy. The international

    economy may affect the firms export business,

    the price competition it faces from its competitors

    or the profits it makes on the investment abroad.

    Certainly, there is a considerable variation in

    economic performance across the countries.

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    E i F t A l i

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    Economic Factor Analysis Global Economy

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    Stock Market ReturnsGrowth in Real GDP Local Currency $ Terms

    China 11.2 -7.6 -7.6

    Hog Kong 3.3 -20.0 -20.0

    India 5.8 -0.1 +1.0

    Indonesia 3.8 1.4 18.7

    Singapore 3.0 -20.7 -15.6

    South Korea 5.8 -14.9 -5.7

    Taiwan 4.2 -19.7 -19.1

    Venezuela -16.7 24.0 -41.2

    Argentina -10.1 98.3 -37.5South Africa 3.0 -20.7 19.5

    Russia 4.3 50.9 45.7

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    Economic Factor Analysis

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    Global Economy

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    Economic Factor Analysis

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    Global Economy

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    Economic Factor Analysis

    Global Economy Chart of Infosys, Nifty and Nasdaq

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    0

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    Infy_Close Nifty _Close Nasdaq_Close

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    Economic Factor Analysis

    Global Economy

    Political Risk

    We all remember what happened in 2003 to the stock

    markets when BJP lost Loksabha election to congress

    on 16th May.

    In 1997, the Hongkong market extremely sensitive to

    the political developments leading up to transfer of

    governance to China.

    Iraq war

    Etc.

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    Economic Factor Analysis

    Global Economy

    Exchange rate: The exchange rate is the rate at

    which the domestic currency can be converted

    into a foreign currency.

    Currency Appreciation: Good for importers/Bad

    for exporters

    Currency Depreciation: Good for exporters/ bad

    for importers

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    Economic Factor Analysis

    If GBP depreciates against USD & USD

    appreciates against INR, what will happen to

    exchange rate between GBPINR?

    INR will_______________ against GBP

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    Economic Factor Analysis

    Domestic Macro Economy

    The macro economy is the environment in which

    all the firms operate.

    The price-earnings ratio vary with the factors suchas interest rates, risk, inflation rates, and other

    variables.

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    Economic Factor Analysis

    Domestic macro economy GDP: It is a measure of economys total

    production of goods & services

    Industrial Production: Another measure is the

    Industrial Production. It is more focused on themanufacturing side of the economy.

    Employment: Unemployment rate is a percentage

    of total labor force (i.e. either who are working or

    actively seeking employment) yet to find work. It

    basically tells the extent to which the economy is

    working to its fullest capacity.

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    Economic Factor Analysis

    Domestic Macro Economy

    Inflation: It is a rate at which a general level of

    prices is rising. High rates of inflation are generally

    related to over heated economies. Here, the

    demand for goods & services is outstripping the

    productive capacity.

    The unemployment vs inflation dilemma

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    Economic Factor Analysis

    Domestic Macro Economy Interest Rates: Higher interest rates reduce the

    present value of the future cash flows, there by

    reducing the attractiveness of the investment

    opportunity. Moreover, higher interest rates arealso disincentive for the corporate as they will

    hesitate to borrow at higher cost (even for

    expansion)

    Moreover, demand for housing, durable goods,

    vehicles, etc. is also sensitive to the interest rates

    fluctuations.

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    Economic Factor Analysis

    Domestic Macro Economy

    Budget Deficit: The budget deficit of the

    government is the difference between government

    spending and revenues. Any budgetary shortfall

    must be offset by government borrowing. Large

    amounts of government borrowing can force up the

    interest rates by increasing the total demand for

    credit in the economy. This can also lead to

    crowding out effect leading to higher interest ratesand chocking off business investments.

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    Economic Factor Analysis

    Demand & Supply Shocks

    A demand shock is an event which affects the

    demand for goods and services in the economy.

    Example for positive demand shock are reduction

    in taxes, increase in money supply, increase in

    government spending, or increase in foreign

    export demand.

    Demand shocks are usually characterised by

    aggregate output moving in the same direction as

    that of interest rates & inflation.

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    Economic Factor Analysis

    Demand & Supply Shocks A supply shock is an event that influences the

    production capacity and cots.

    supply shock is usually characterized by aggregate

    output moving in opposite direction of inflationand interest rates.

    Where can you use this analysis?

    If there is an indication of tightening of money supply,

    you might want to avoid industries such as automobileproducers because it will be affected due to increase in

    interest rates.

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    Economic Factor Analysis

    Government Policies

    Government has two broader tools those that

    affect the demand for goods and services and

    those that affect the supply.

    Recently, most of the focus has been on demand

    side of the story

    The focus has been on government spending, tax

    levels, and monetary policy.

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    Economic Factor Analysis

    Government Policies Fiscal Policy

    It refers to the governments spending and tax actions

    and is part of demand-side management. Fiscal policy

    is probably the most direct way to stimulate or slow theeconomy.

    Increases in the govt spending inflate the demand of

    goods & services & vice-a-versa.

    Similarly, increases in taxes implies deflate in the

    demand of the goods & services. However, the execution of the fiscal policies is rather

    very slow.

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    Economic Factor Analysis

    Government Policies

    Monetary Policy It refers to the manipulation of money supply to affect the macro

    economy. It typically works through its impact on the interest

    rates, ultimately increasing the consumption & demand. Increase in money supply will reduce the short term interest rates

    and will increase the consumption & demand. Over long period,

    however, higher money supply only leads to higher price levels and

    does not have any permanent impact on the economic activity.

    And it becomes a difficult balancing act. Thus, stimulation/

    inflation trade-off is implicit. Open Market Operations: The Govt. buys & sells securities

    increasing or decreasing the supply of money in the economy.

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    Economic Factor Analysis

    Government Policies

    While the Fiscal Policies are more direct in nature,

    it takes longer to implement.

    Impact of Monetary policies is more of a round

    about and works largely through its impact on

    interest rates.

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    Economic Factor Analysis

    Concept Check Question 2

    Suppose the government wants to stimulate the economy

    without increasing interest rates. What combination of

    fiscal and monetary policy might accomplish this goal?

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    Economic Factor Analysis

    Government Policies

    Supply Side Policies

    The supply side policies treat the issue of the

    productive capacity of the economy. The goal is to

    create an environment in which workers and owners ofcapital have the maximum incentive and ability to

    produce and develop goods.

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    Economic Factor Analysis

    Concept Check Question 3

    Large tax cuts were followed by rapid growth in GDP. How

    would demand-side and supply-side economists differ in

    their interpretations of this phenomenon?

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    Economic Factor Analysis

    Business Cycles

    The economy recurrently experiences periods of expansion

    and contraction, although the length & depth can be

    irregular.

    This recurring pattern of recession & recovery is called asBusiness Cycles.

    A Peak is the transition that occurs at the end of the

    expansion and lasts till the start of the contraction.

    A Trough occurs at the bottom of a recession just as the

    economy enters a recovery.

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    Economic Factor Analysis

    Business Cycles

    Cyclical Industries:

    As the economy passes through the different stages of the

    business cycles, the relative performance of the industries is

    expected to vary.

    At the trough, when the economy just begins to recover, the

    industries that are sensitive to economic recovery, like Auto, would

    tend to outperform. E.g. Automobiles, durable goods industries.

    Because purchase of such goods can be deferred during recession,

    the sales of such industries are sensitive to the macroeconomic

    conditions.

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    Economic Factor Analysis

    Business Cycles

    Cyclical Industries:

    Other cyclical industries are the producers of the capital goods i.e.

    the goods used by other firms to produce their products. When

    the demand is slack, few companies will be expanding and

    purchasing capital goods. So, the capital goods industry bears the

    burnt of the economic slow down but does well in expansion.

    Defensive Industries:

    These are the industries that are least sensitive to the economic

    cycles. These industries include food producers & processors,

    pharmaceuticals and public utilities. These industries willoutperform at the time of recession.

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    Economic Factor Analysis

    Economic Indicators

    Leading Indicators

    Coincident Indicators

    Lagging Indicators

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    Where are we Stand?

    Post the 2nd Break, we have covered Economic Factor

    Analysis:

    Global Economy

    Domestic Macro economy

    Demand & Supply Shocks

    Government Policy

    Business Cycles

    After this break, we will look at Industry Analysis and why &

    how it is important from the perspective of Equity Analysisand further finer aspects of the same.

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    After the Short Break 2

    Post the 3rd Break, we have covered Economic FactorAnalysis:

    Global Economy

    Domestic Macro economy

    Demand & Supply Shocks Government Policy

    Business Cycles

    Now, we will look at Industry Analysis and why & how it is

    important from the perspective of Equity Analysis and further

    finer aspects of the same.

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    Industry Analysis

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    Industry Analysis

    Defining an Industry

    Sensitivity to a Business Cycle

    Operating Leverage

    Sector Rotation

    Industry Life Cycles

    Industry Structure & Performance

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    Industry Analysis

    Defining an industry: It becomes a very crucial

    activity and can be difficult at times.

    IT-ITES

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    Industry Analysis

    Sensitivity to the Business Cycle Given the state of the economy, it is very crucial to identify

    implications to individual industry.

    Not all industries are equally sensitive to the business cycles. For e.g.

    automobile manufacturing industry & cigarettes.

    Clearly, cigarettes industry is independent of the business cycle.

    Demand of cigarettes does not seem to deflect despite the economic

    slowdown.

    Cigarette consumption is largely led by habit and it forms small

    enough part of most of the budgets.

    Auto production, by contrast is different. Most of the people would

    defer their decision to go for auto purchase till their income level is

    higher.

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    Industry Analysis

    Sensitivity to the Business Cycle

    Three things will determine the sensitivity of the

    firms earnings to the business cycle

    Sensitivity of Sales

    Degree of operating Leverage

    Financial Leverage

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    Industry Analysis

    Sensitivity to the Business Cycle

    Sensitivity of Sales

    Necessities will show little sensitivity to the business

    conditions.

    Examples of such industries are: food, drugs, and medicalservices

    Other industries that show low sensitivity are those whose

    demand is independent of income. These incluse tobacco,

    movies; because it is observed that people substitute movies

    for more expensive sorts of entertainments.

    Machine tools, steel, autos, and transportation are

    highly sensitive to the state of economy.

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    Industry Analysis

    Sensitivity to the Business Cycle

    Degree of Operating Leverage Operating Leverage: A firm with higher proportion of fixed costs

    has higher operating leverage.

    Firms with higher operating leverage are more sensitive to theeconomic conditions.

    Firms with higher operating leverage will see higher changes in

    profitability vis--vis it sales.

    DoL = (% Change in Profits)/ (% Change in Sales)

    So, if the DoL is 2, then for every 1% change in sales, the profits

    move (up or down) by 2% in the same direction.

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    Industry Analysis

    Sensitivity to the Business Cycle

    Degree of Operating Leverage

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    Recession Normal Expansion

    A B A B A B

    Sales (Nos mn) 5 5 6 6 7 7

    Price per Unit (Rs) 2 2 2 2 2 2

    Revenue (Rs mn) 10 10 12 12 14 14

    Fixed Costs (Rs mn) 5 8 5 8 5 8

    Variable Costs (Rs mn) 5 2.5 6 3 7 3.5

    Profits (Rs mn) 0 (0.5) 1 1 2 2.5

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    Industry Analysis

    Concept Check Question 4 What will be the profits in the three scenarios for Firm C

    with fixed costs of Rs 2 mn and variable costs of Rs1.5 per

    unit? What are your conclusions regarding operating

    leverage?

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    Industry Analysis

    Sensitivity to the Business Cycle

    Financial Leverage

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    Industry Analysis

    Sector Rotation

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    Financial Stocks Excel Consumer Durables Excel

    Capital Goods Excel

    Basic Industries Excel

    Consumer Staples Excel

    Contraction ExpansionPeak

    Trough

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    Industry Analysis

    Peak

    At the peak of the business cycle, the economy

    would be over heated with high inflation and

    would be characterized by higher interest rates

    and pricing pressures on basic commodities

    This might be good time to invest into firms

    engaged in natural resource extraction and

    processing such as minerals or petroleum.

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    Industry Analysis

    Contraction Phase: In the contraction or recession, one would expect

    industries that are less sensitive to the economic

    conditions. For example pharmaceuticals, food, and other

    necessities. At the height of contraction, the financial firms will be hurt

    by the shrinking loan volumes and higher default rates.

    Towards the end of the contract phase, however, financials

    could do well as contraction would induce lower inflation

    and interest rates.

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    Industry Analysis

    Trough

    It is the point at which many of the firms may be

    looking forward to investing in to cater for the

    future demand.

    It is the phase where you should invest into capital

    goods industry such as equipments,

    transportation or construction.

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    Industry Analysis

    Expansion Phase:

    It is the phase where consumer durables would do

    well. Luxury businesses, automobiles would do

    well. In this phase, banks will also do well as loans

    volume would go up and default rate would below.

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    Industry Analysis

    Concept Check Question 5

    In which phase of the business cycle would

    you expect the following industries to enjoy

    their best performance? News paper

    Machine tools

    Beverages

    Timber

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    Industry Analysis

    Industry Life Cycle Look at industries like Biotechnology you will find higher

    rate of investment, higher rates of return and lower

    payouts

    Versus, look at the industries like utilities, you will findlower investments, modest rates of return and higher pay

    out.

    New industries will always offer high risk/ high returns kind

    of profile.

    Where as, the mature industries will be cash cows andwill be low-risk, low return but higher dividends proposal.

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    S1

    S2

    S3

    S4S5

    S1 : Pioneering Development S2 : Rapid Accelerating Growth

    S3 : Mature Growth S4 : Stabilization & Market Maturity

    S5 : Deceleration of Growth and Decline

    Industry Analysis Industry Life Cycle

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    Industry Analysis

    Peter Lynchs Approach

    Slow Growers Large & aging companies that will only grow at a rate slightly

    higher than economy. They have matured from their high growth

    phase and have steady cash flows and pay generous dividends.

    Indicating the companies is generating more cash that can be

    profitably invested in the business.

    Stalwarts

    They grow faster than the slow growers, but are not in

    very rapid start up phase. These tend to be non-cyclicalindustries

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    Industry Analysis Peter Lynchs Approach

    Fast Growers Small and aggressive firms have growth rates in the range of 25-

    40% annually.

    Cyclicals

    Companies whose profits expand and contract with the business

    cycles. Turnarounds

    These are the companies that are in bankruptcy or soon might be.

    If they recover from this, they can offer tremendous returns.

    Asset Plays

    There could be companies possessing assets that are not getting reflectedin the current stock . It could be a piece of real estate, some apparently

    intangible asset that could take the stock value to different heights.

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    Porters FiveForce Model

    Industry Competitors

    (Rivalry

    among Existing

    firms)

    Potential Entrants

    Suppliers Buyers

    Substitute

    Bargaining Power

    of Suppliers

    Bargaining Power of

    buyers

    Threat of

    Substitutes

    Threat of new

    entrants

    Industry Analysis

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    Important Facets of Industry Analysis

    Structural Changes in the Economy

    Structural changes are widespread or long term changes of the fundamental

    structure of the economy

    Eg: The Liberalization of the Indian Economy

    Globalization a structural change in the world economy

    The changing of US economy from a manufacturing giant to a service oriented economy

    The down fall of communism in Soviet is a structural change for the economy

    Industry Analysis

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    Effect of Inflation

    Higher Inflation causes uncertainty about future prices and cost , causes

    Higher Interest rates and is harmful for firm as their costs increase.

    But on the contrary Inflation is good for Natural resourceindustries, Industries with high operating leverage or with high financial

    leverage.

    Interest rates

    Higher Interest rates are harm full for the Banking and Financial sector

    and the construction sector but they increase the income of retirees

    Industry Analysis

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    Study of Demographics

    Demographics includes the population growth and age distribution

    along with this it also includes geographical distribution of

    people, changing ethnic mix in the society and changes in the income

    distribution

    Eg: The expected decline in workforce in Japan in the next 15 years

    due to changes in priorities.

    Study of Lifestyle

    Lifestyles deal with how people live , work consume, educate themselves as

    the consumer behavior gets affected by trends and fads.

    These things affect industries like the housing, hospitality automobiles,

    retail financial services and entertainment industry

    Industry Analysis

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    Technology

    Technology implementation across industries can affect the a large part of the

    economy .

    Eg : Carburetors are out of demand as fuel injection technology was introduced.

    Companies generate their own power , so demand of power in industrial area

    goes down.Internet has brought down the cost of advertising drastically.

    Study of Regulations and Politics

    Political change reflects social values , social trend gets converted in to a law

    or tax.

    Eg : The government controls prices of life savings drugs

    Industry Analysis

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    Consumer SentimentsConsumer spending has a large impact on the economy and consumer

    spending is a function of consumer sentiments . Optimistic consumers are

    good for the economy and affect various sectors

    Eg: Spending in Cars, Cloths, White goods and borrow for house purchase etc

    International Economics

    International economies are constantly interacting with each other which

    affects the value of currency of the nation. The exports and imports gets affected.

    Creation of free trade zones and International communities for trade benefit the

    companies present in those areas those areas

    Eg : Fluctuation of the Indian rupee or the US dollarEuropean community , North America Free trade zone, SAARC etc.

    Industry Analysis

    Industry Analysis

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    Study of Global Industry

    Studying scenario in the global industry helps to understand the developmentand scope for the domestic industry, by introduction of multinational players in

    the market and the market dynamics change

    Eg: The Automobile sector witnessed a rapid change due to the foreign car makers

    entering India.

    Relation of the Global and Local Industry

    The study of domestic industrys interaction and dependence on the global

    players helps us to understand the revenue expectations from the industry in the

    short term and long term.

    Domestic Industrys presence in global area brings revenue in foreign currency

    Eg : Indian Computer manufacturers depend completely on foreign companies like Intel

    for their core material requirements

    I d A l

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    History of the Industry in world and India

    The complete knowledge of the industry right from its inception and major milestones in

    World and India gives a deep understanding about the industry and helps to spot trends

    and major shift in the industry

    Current Happenings in the Industry

    An update about the happenings in the industry helps to understand the future

    direction of the industry and growth prospects of the industry

    SWOT

    SWOT analysis helps to have a clear picture about the industrys Advantage

    points and the areas where it can face problems in future. This study helps to

    understand the effect of various events from the Industrys perspective.

    Industry Analysis

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    E i R h W k h

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    Equity Research Workshop

    Be-Do-Have

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    Before We End todays Session

    Please carry your homework sheets with you

    Please carry your soft data on Pen drives, if

    you require

    Please return your name tags while going I am around to ask any questions you may

    have

    Make sure that you are calling your mentors

    on the time decided

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    Thank You

    Session 1 Ends 6pm