Envisioning the Future: The NACMP Scenarios

The National Association of Catholic Media Partners

Scenario Planning

Jay Ogilvy and Peter Schwartz describe scenarios as “narratives of alternative environments in which today’s decisions may be played out. They are not predictions. Nor are they strategies. Instead they are more like hypotheses of different futures specifically designed to highlight the risks and opportunities involved in specific strategic issues.”

The point is not to gather evidence for some “most probable” future. The point is rather to entertain a number of different possibilities in order to make better choices about the future of faith formation in the face of inevitable uncertainties.

Scenario Planning Process

Identifying Driving Forces

Determining 2 Critical

Uncertainties

Constructing a Scenario Framework & Writing Narratives

Developing Action

Implications & Strategies

Focusing Question

How might NACMP effectively prepare for its future as a Catholic media association and develop strategic

initiatives to guide its work (“use of media in faith formation”) over the

next 3-5 years?

Outside-In Thinking

Identifying Driving ForcesIdentifying the forces of change outside NACMP that you believe will shape the future direction NACMP and the “use of media in faith formation” in predictable and unpredictable ways over the next decade:1. Social & Cultural 2. Technological 3. Political 4. Economic5. Educational6. Religious

Priority Driving Forces

Driving Force 1: The development of new technologies (digital media and tools) is a catalyst for the emergence and growing implementation of new models of learning that make possible mobile learning, continuous learning (24x7), blended learning (virtual and physical such as flipped classroom), and online learning.

Driving Force 2: The increasing use of mobile, digital communication technologies and social media are creating a participatory culture that is networked and collaborative, and this emerging culture is often in tension with institutional, hierarchical structures in society, such as the Catholic Church.

Priority Driving Forces

Driving Force 3: The number and diversity of people who are telling the story has grown. Who are the people telling the stories today?

Driving Force 4: There is a decline in professional staffing for parish catechetical programs; inadequate technology infrastructure (resources) in parishes; and awareness of available digital catechetical resources for parish catechetical programs.

Priority Driving Forces

Driving Force 5: There is growing gap between the knowledge and skills required for leadership and faith formation in the 21st century, and the abilities/competence of church leaders to use the new digital technologies and media in church life and faith formation, resulting in the need for media formation and training for church leaders.

Driving Force 6: There is a growing gap between the development of new digital media and learning resources and the USCCB’s vision of faith formation and review process for Catholic catechetical publications.

Priority Driving Forces

Driving Force 7. We are increasingly becoming society of non-church goers (churchless), evidenced in the rise of those who are spiritual but not religious and not religiously affiliated and especially within the younger generations.

Driving Force 8. People in American society are strapped for time.

Driving Force 9. There is increasing diversity of ethnic cultures in American society and the Catholic Church, and presents new challenges for addressing the religious and spiritual needs in faith formation and church life.

Selecting 2 Critical Uncertainties

Select the two most critical forces (greater importance and uncertainty) using the following two criteria:1. The degree of importance to the focusing

question: How might NACMP effectively prepare for its future as a Catholic media association and develop strategic initiatives to guide its work (“use of media in faith formation”) over the next 3-5 years?

2. The degree of uncertainty surrounding those forces

Two Critical Uncertainties

Competence in Evangelization, Faith Formation, and Ministry

Advanced-----Basic Competency• Will Catholic leaders demonstrate

competence for doing evangelization, faith formation, and ministry?

Engagement & Utilization of Digital Culture & Media

Low-----High Level Engagement• Will Catholic leaders engage with the

new digital culture and effectively utilize the new digital media?

Developing 4 Scenarios

Developing the scenarios into narratives—stories that begin in the present, and end in the future. These scenario stories can be powerful communication tools—a well-written brief story can quickly capture a lot of complexity and leave a lasting message.

Envisioning Action

Developing Action Ideas (2015-2018)Targeted strategies to each scenario or multiple scenarios: • What actions can we take to catalyze or bring

to life a desirable future in each scenario?• What actions can we take to mitigate a

negative outcome?

Strategies for the Future

Networking1. Provide a variety of ways to network with each other and

with organizations involved in Catholic media.2. Create a network of organizations who can collaborate on

the creation and delivery of new digital media resources and tools for faith formation.

3. Sponsor a national symposium on digital faith formation and curriculum in collaboration with national organizations and publishers.

4. Sponsor regular online conversations on themes important to the effective use of media.

5. Develop technology standards for training ministers in collaboration with national groups.

Strategies for the Future

Curated Website1. An online resource center with the best digital media tools2. Links to websites/organizations with digital faith formation

resources3. Links to training programs for leaders4. Models of online and digital faith formation and learning5. A forum for networking6. Practical training (“how-to” assistance) on educational technology,

digital tools and media, and social media7. Articles and resources on effective practices and case studies 8. A resource center with digital lesson plans for faith formation with

children, teens, adults, and families9. Case studies of churches engaged in digital ministry/faith formation

Strategies for the Future

Training & Formation1. A network of leaders and organizations to serve as

catalysts, resource people, teachers, and coaches in digital media and technology

2. Links to relevant training programs, courses, conferences, and webinars

3. Online training programs and webinars in digital ministry and faith formation, and in digital tools and technologies

4. A leader training program on the use of technology in ministry, offered in multiple formats

Strategies for the Future

Research1. Research effective practices in digital ministry and faith

formation 2. Research the impact of digital ministry and faith

formation on parishes and the lives of people3. Research on how people use digital communications in

daily life and for faith enrichment