Environmental Sciences: Towards a Sustainable Future Chapter 6

Population and Development

Review of Ch. 5 Population Profiles These coincide with the NOVA film

“World in Balance, The People Paradox” Too many young children & low working

age can be an economic drain Too many old people (a graying period)

with not enough working age also an economic drain

Population Profile United States youth bulge during baby boomers generation

Population Profile United States“stable columnar profile”

Population Profile of Italy gradually leading to more and more old people

Population Profile Italy “pear, small end down”

Population Profile Developing Country “wide based pyramid”

Developing Country Stabilizing “vertical columnar profile starting”

China’s Solution: family planning policy of 1979 or “one child policy”

•Implemented to alleviate social, economical and environmental problems•Uses both incentives (free health care, free schooling) and penalties (fines and fees for extra children, required to pay for health care of entire family, etc.)•Only applies to married urban dwellers, exceptions made for rural families, parents without any siblings, & certain regions like Hong Kong & Taiwan•It has worked to stop population boom, but very controversial, and still being used today

China’s one child policy since 1979 stopped the youth bulge occurring up until then

                                                                           

a pear shape

Kerala’s Solution (southern India)

Kerala When Compared to rest of India Life expectancy 73 years vs 63 for India Infant mortality 12/1000 versus 58/1000

for India Fertility rate 1.8 (below replacement

level) vs. 2.9 for India Literacy is over 90% and women are as

well educated as men

Changing Human Survivorship Curves: Went from B to A

% S

urvi

val

AgeBirth Death

A

B

•1798, first published his “Essay on the Principle of Population”, in which he forecast that population growth would outstrip the world’s food supply and thus human population will be “checked” by world food supply (through mass starvation & malnourishment)•Contrary to most who thought at the time that more people always brought more prosperity because more workers and thinkers to contribute•Industrial revolution after this time period caused reduced fertility rates in industrialized nations and further hurt Malthus’s claim•NOW, Malthus’s theory has made a comeback with food scarcity being a problem in developing countries

THOMAS MALTHUS…suggested a carrying capacity exists for humans

Thomas Malthus: 1798 food production MUST level off causing population growth to peak

FoodProduction

PopulationGrowth

Time

Am

ount

Thomas Malthus in Summary Was right eventually, but ahead of his time His pessimistic predictions of shortage of food supply

did not consider changes in agricultural technology (industrialization) and science

Did not consider dramatic decreases in fertility rates in some countries as kids become an economic liability

Now we know for sure that continuing rapid population growth undercuts economic growth possibilities and food supply is a limited resource

Reasons for the Human Population Explosionthe “epidemiological transition” Phase II

Huge decrease in mortality rates because: Causes of disease recognized Improvements in nutrition Discovery of antibiotics Improvements in medicine Increase in number of women who actually reach

child-bearing age Short doubling times in some countries

Growth Rate Comparisons…must control continuous population growth to be able to modernize your country

Developed Nations: high income, GNI/capita & industrialized) including nations typically < 1% growth :USA (0.6% /yr growth rate, life expectancy of 78), Canada(0.8, 81), Denmark(0.2%, 78), Spain(0.1%, 80), Japan(0.1%, 82), Italy(0.0%, 80), Germany(-0.2%, 79) Developing Nations: low income, low GNI/capita & large population growth including:Ethiopia (3.1%, 55), Afghanistan (2.6%, 44), Kenya (2.5%, 58) , Nigeria (2.0%, 47), Egypt (2.1%, 72), Iraq (2.6%), India (1.7%, 66), Zambia (1.6%, 39), Mexico (1.7%), Brazil (1.4%), Costa Rica (1.4%,78), Vietnam (1.3%, 72), China (0.7%, 73 only industrialized in certain areasHong Kong)

Demographics : Numbers to Know6.8 billion = world population1.2% = world annual growth rate, 58 years = world doubling time 1.8 % = developing nations annual growth rate0.1% = developed nations annual growth rate

98% = the percent of total world growth that comes from developing countries90% = percent of world AIDS cases in developing countries80% and growing = proportion of world’s human population living in developing nations60% = percent of world’s pop living in absolute poverty less than $1.25 a day20% = proportional of world’s wealth in developing nations80:20 = ratio of world’s wealth in developed vs. developing

Major Economic Divisions of the World

Gross national income/capita

Different Populations, Different Problems

IPAT Formula: calculates human pressure on the environment (I = P x A x T) relative to 3 terms I = environmental impact P = population A = affluence and consumptive patterns T = level of technology in the society

Fertility Rate and Income

Factors That Contribute To and Control Population Growth How family size is determined. Large-scale centralized and small-scale

decentralized projects. The importance of the physical, social

and economic health of women and their children.

The Cairo conference ICPD 1994 and MDG’s of 2000.

Why poor in developing countries have large families: SMLE WB Security in old age care, since no government programs Mortality rate of infants and children is high Labor with more children as an economic asset, helping

hands, not a liability Education seems unnecessary, or is unavailable or not allowed

Women do not have equal status or possibilities. not allowed business ownership or careers or education

Birth control not accessible or allowed. (providing contraceptives &family planning is key)

Contraceptive Prevalence and Fertility Rates

Fer

tili

ty R

ate

Percent Using Contraceptive

The Poverty Cycle

Family Planning Counseling on: STD’s,

contraceptives, spacing children, pregnancy avoidance.

Supplying contraceptives

Pre- and postnatal care

Contraceptives Psychological/Behavioral: abstention,

calendar rhythm method Mechanical: condoms, diaphragms Chemical: the pill, Norplant Surgical: tubal ligation, vasectomy Intrauterine Devices (IUD): abortion

device

Demographic Transition: Developed Countries

Demographic Transition: Developing Countries

Millenium Development Goals (MDG’s) of United Nations at Millenium Summit in 2000

Main focus is to greatly reduce poverty and bring about sustainable development around the world with 8 measurable goals:1.Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger2.Universal primary education3.Gender equality4.Reduce child mortality5.Improve maternal health6.Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases7.Ensure environmental sustainability8.Global partnerships for development through NGO’s (non-government organizations) and ODA (Official Development Assistance)as a percent of GDP from wealthy donor nations.

The 1994 ICPD Cairo ConferenceInternational Conference on Population and Development All nations agreed that population is

an issue of crisis proportions that must be confronted forthrightly.

Must address the population crisis through funding and education for sustainable development and social modernization

The 1994 ICPD Program of Action Maintaining and enhancing

productivity of natural resources, don’t just exploit resources for cash crops and non-sustainable mining

Empowerment of women is essential Emphasis on family planning

The 1994 ICPD Program of Action Enhancing reproductive and basic health of

women and children Improve education opportunities for women Reduce population migrations International cooperation (.7% GNP of developed

world) Explicity states that abortions should never be

used as a means of family planning

Official Development Assistance

$78.6 billion in 2004

What is the World Bank? Five closely associated UN agencies

aimed at reducing poverty and providing low interest loans to developing countries

Successes included: Social progress in some countries and declining fertility rates in some countries

World Bank: Failures No increased GNP overall Increased absolute poverty worldwide Large-scale projects: hydroelectric dams and open pit

coal mines often do little for the poor, dramatically increase pollution and displace rural poor who had farmed the fertile soil

Clearing tropical rain forest in Latin America for large cattle operations and mechanized agriculture, still leaving poor marginalized

Cash crops to EXPORT rather than feed the hungry within

The Debt Trap

Coping With The Debt Crisis Must Pay Interest Payments instead of Sustainably Develop own country

Grow cash crops Develop

austerity measures

Exploit natural resources

World Bank Reform is now at hand Environmental sensitivity is at

forefront Focus on the needs of the poor Focus on reduction of interest

payments

A New Direction: Social Modernization Improved health care for mothers and children Improving educational opportunities for women Making family planning accessible Improving resource management (reversing

environmental degradation) Enhancing employment opportunities and old-

age security apart from children

Social Modernization Completely compatible with MDG’s

and Cairo ICPD (although did not formally address curbing fertility rates in MDG’s, it will only help with poverty)

Founder of Grameen Bank, an NGO Muhammad Yunus:

Economics professor in Bangladesh created a new kind of bank

Created “microlending model” duplicated by over 100 countries

Loans average $67 for 4-6 months, secured by credit association groups

Recipient of 2006 Nobel Peace Prize

Enhancing Income: Grameen Bank Loans Primarily to women Do not upset existing social structure Utilize local resources Utilize central work places Help develop self-reliance

http://www.grameenfoundation.org/

NGO’s in ColoradoFriendship Bridge in Lakewood, CO Nonprofit microlending group

gets a return rate on loans that's a banker's dream -- 99 percent payback on the $7.8 million it has loaned in more than 11,000 transactions since 1998.

Virtually all of the borrowers were Guatemalan women, there's been no collateral except peer pressure and the average loan is $200.

www.friendshipbridge.org

NGO’s in Colorado

Adelante Foundation in Englewood CO improves the standard of living of

extremely poor women living in Honduras through microlending

Adelante also provides business, health and human rights education

www.adelantefoundation.org

Adult Female Illiteracy: A Global Comparison

More social moderination goals: Improving Resource Management “farmer-to-farmer” advisory programs and

cooperatives (common pool resources) Protecting and preserving natural resources

for long term benefit Restoring environmental degradation:

replant trees, prevent erosion Meet MDG goal 7: env. sustainability

Social Development

The Greatest Challenge to Health Care in Developing Countries AIDS (Acquired Immune Deficiency

Syndrome)

Impacts of AIDS Epidemic 90% of all HIV-infected people (40 million by

2006) live in developing countries Life expectancy in Botswana was 61 years in

1980 – now 34 years One million elementary students lost teachers 2.5 million AIDS orphans in developing world by

2010