Environmental Science and EngineeringSubseries: Environmental Science

Series Editors: R. Allan • U. Förstner • W. Salomons

World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA)

United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD)

Mannava V. K. Sivakumar · Ndegwa Ndiang’ui (Eds.)

Climate andLand Degradation

123

With 192 Figures and 61 Tables

Mannava V.K. SivakumarAgricultural Meteorology DivisionWorld Meteorological Organization7bis Avenue de la PaixP.O. Box 23001211 Geneva 2, SwitzerlandE-mail: msivakumar@wmo.int

Ndegwa Ndiang‘uiCommittee on Science and Technology (CST)United Nations Convention to Combat DesertificationHermann - Ehlers - Str. 10D-53113 BonnGermanye-mail: nndiangui@unccd.int

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Foreword

Desertification is one of the most alarming processes of environmental degrada-tion. It is about land degradation: the loss of the land‘s biological productivity,caused by human-induced factors and climate change, affecting one-third of theEarth‘s surface and over a billion people. Moreover, it can have devastating conse-quences in terms of social and economic costs.

The impacts of land degradation on global food security and the quality of theenvironment are of major significance and concern when one considers that onlyabout 11% of the global land surface can be considered as prime land, yet this mustfeed the 6 billion people inhabiting the World today and the 8.2 billion expectedby the year 2020. Long-term food productivity is threatened by soil degradation,which is now severe enough to reduce crop yields on approximately 16% of the ag-ricultural land, especially in Africa and Central America, as well as the Africanpastures. The rate of land degradation is highest in Sub-Saharan Africa, where itis estimated that losses in productivity of cropping land are in the order of 0.5-1 %annually, suggesting a cumulative loss of at least 20% over the last 40 years.

Sustainable development of countries affected by drought and desertificationcan only come about through concerted efforts based on a sound understandingof the different factors that contribute to land degradation around the World. Cli-matic variations are recognized among the major factors contributing to land deg-radation, as defined in the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification(UNCCD), and it is important to understand the respective roles of the differentclimatic factors in land degradation. For example, development and adoption ofsustainable land management practices are among the major solutions adopted tocombat land degradation over drylands, but to accurately assess sustainable landmanagement practices, the climate resources and the risk of climate-related or cli-mate-induced natural disasters must be well known for a given region.

Only when climate resources are paired with potential management or devel-opment practices can the land degradation potential be assessed and appropriatemitigation technologies be developed. The use of climate information must be ap-plied effectively in developing sustainable practices, since climatic variation is oneof the major factors contributing to or even acting as a trigger to land degradation.There is therefore a clear need to consider carefully how climate can induce and in-fluence land degradation.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) contributes to the understand-ing of the interactions between climate and land degradation through dedicatedobservations of the climate system; improvements in the application of agrometeo-rological methods and the proper assessment and management of water resourc-es; advances in climate science and prediction; and promotion of capacity build-ing in the application of meteorological and hydrological data and information in

drought preparedness and management. However, much more needs to done, suchas the promotion of further interest and research in this topic.

At its 58th ordinary session, the UN General Assembly declared 2006 to be theInternational Year of Deserts and Desertification (IYDD). In doing so, the Gen-eral Assembly underlined its deep concern for the exacerbation of desertification,particularly in Africa, and noted its far-reaching implications for the implemen-tation of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which must be met by theyear 2015. Accordingly, the IYDD presents a golden opportunity to get the messageacross, strongly and effectively, that Desertification is a global problem that we canonly ignore at our own peril. It also offers an impulse to strengthen the visibilityand importance of the drylands issue on the international environmental agenda,while providing a timely reminder to the international community of the immensechallenges that still lie ahead.

In recognition of the importance of climatic factors in land degradation, theSeventh Session of the Conference of Parties (COP-7) to the UNCCD accorded pri-ority to climate issues in land degradation in the future work of the Committee onScience and Technology (CST) of the Convention, inviting WMO to organize andfind the necessary funding for an International Workshop on Climate and LandDegradation in 2006, in the spirit of implementation of the International Year ofDeserts and Desertification (IYDD) and also asking CST to assist WMO in findingexperts for this workshop.

It is with this background that WMO, the UNCCD Secretariat and the Tanza-nia Meteorological Agency jointly organized in Arusha (Tanzania), from 11 to 15December 2006, the International Workshop on Climate and Land Degradation.The workshop, which was cosponsored by the Organization of the Petroleum Ex-porting Countries (OPEC) Fund for International Development (OFID), the Unit-ed Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the United Nations Education-al, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), focused the way that climateinduces and influences land degradation and what measures need to be taken inorder to enhance the applications of weather and climate information to combatland degradation.

We hope that the papers presented in this book will serve as a significant sourceof information to the CST as well as to all agencies and organizations involved indesigning and implementing appropriate strategies for sustainable land manage-ment to arrest land degradation.

M. Jarraud Hama Arba DialloSecretay-General Executive SecretaryWorld Meteorological Organization Secretariat of the Convention

to Combat Desertification

VI Foreword

Preface

Land degradation is a threat to natural resources with consequences on food secu-rity, poverty, and environmental and political stability. The increasing occurrenceof climate extremes (for example heat waves, droughts, heavy precipitation) is hav-ing an impact on land degradation processes, including floods, mass movements,soil erosion by water and wind and salinization in all parts of the globe. Climatevariability, climate change and land degradation are intimately linked and are gen-erating unexpected effects, for example, an increased occurrence of weather con-ditions that are suitable for a fire to start, or to propagate in the wild, in large partsof the globe. Sustainable development of countries affected by drought and de-sertification can only come about through concerted efforts based on a sound un-derstanding of the different factors including climatic variations that contribute toland degradation around the world.

To address these key issues, experts from around the world were brought togeth-er at an International Workshop on Climate and Land Degradation which was heldin Arusha, United Republic of Tanzania from 11 to 15 December 2006. The work-shop focused on how climate induces and influences land degradation and whatmeasures need to be taken to enhance the application of weather and climate in-formation to combat land degradation. The workshop was organized by the WorldMeteorological Organization, the United Nations Convention to Combat Desert-ification (UNCCD) and the Tanzania Meteorological Agency and was co-spon-sored by the OPEC Fund for International Development (OFID), the United Na-tions Development Programme (UNDP) and the United Nations Educational, Sci-entific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO).

Specific objectives of the Workshop were: To survey the status of, and summarize the information on, trends in land deg-

radation at national and regional levels; To review and assess the extent to which weather and climate data and informa-

tion are currently used at the national and regional levels in order to adequatelymonitor and assess land degradation and to develop sustainable land manage-ment practices to combat land degradation;

To provide recommendations on appropriate strategies for reducing land degra-dation through more effective use of weather and climate information and ap-plications;

To assess the historic loss of terrestrial carbon pool due to land degradation,and estimate the potential of carbon sequestration in soil/terrestrial ecosystemsthrough soil restoration and desertification control;

To assess the feasibility of restoring degraded/desertified lands with a view toachieving food security in the affected developing countries;

To document case studies of successful measures to manage land use, protectland and mitigate land degradation;

To suggest ways and means of improving the implementation of the NationalAction Programmes (NAPs) through the effective use of early warning.

Sixty four participants from 30 countries and 5 UN agencies (WMO, UNCCD,FAO, UNDP, UNEP) presented state-of-the-art papers, real world applications andinnovative techniques for combating land degradation, and offered recommenda-tions for effectively using weather and climate information for sustainable landmanagement practices.

Altogether there were 9 sessions (including the opening and closing session) inthe workshop during which 34 invited papers were presented addressing the differ-ent specific objectives of the workshop. All the participants in the workshop wereengaged in discussions on these papers and developed several useful recommenda-tions for all organizations involved in promoting climate prediction and applica-tions in agriculture, and in combating land degradation particularly in the devel-oping countries.

This volume includes 33 invited papers presented at the workshop, the conclu-sions and recommendations that emerged out of the working group discussionsand the final workshop statement. As editors of this volume, we would like tothank all the authors for their efforts and for their cooperation in bringing out thisvolume in time. We are most grateful to Mr. M. Jarraud, the Secretary-General ofWMO and Mr Arba Diallo, Executive Secretary of the UNCCD for their continu-ous support and encouragement.

Mannava V. K. SivakumarNdegwa Ndiang’uiEditors

VIII Preface

Contents

1 The Assessment of Global Trends in Land DegradationUriel N. Safriel

1.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.1.1 Land degradation – what is it and how is it assessed . . . . . . . . 21.1.2 The need for assessment at a global scale . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31.1.3 Assessment of land degradation at the global scale . . . . . . . . . 4

1.2 Assessment of current degradation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51.2.1 Global land degradation and dryland desertification . . . . . . . . 51.2.2 Is land degradation in drylands different than that in the non-drylands? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71.2.3 Degradation degree and degradation severity . . . . . . . . . . . . 111.2.4 The Spatial extent of global land degradation . . . . . . . . . . . . 181.2.5 The spatial extent of dryland degradation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181.2.6 Degradation and degradation vulnerability . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191.2.7 Degradation vulnerability and degradation risk . . . . . . . . . . 20

1.3 Remote-sensing of productivity for assessing global degradation . . . . . 231.3.1 Soil or vegetation assessment? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231.3.2 Degradation as a persistent reduction in land productivity . . . . 261.3.3 Assessing degradation as deviation of productivity from its potential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

1.4 Assessment of degradation trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 301.4.1 Rain Use Efficiency methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 311.4.2 The Residual Trends methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

1.5 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

2 Status and Trends in Land Degradation in AfricaLamourdia Thiombiano and Ignacio Tourino-Soto

2.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 392.2 Evaluating the trends in land degradation in Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

2.2.1 Diversity of Agro-ecological zones, soils and land use systems . . 402.2.2 Methodological approach to estimate land degradation extent in Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

X Contents

2.2.3 Extent and trend of land degradation in Africa accordingto agro-ecological zones . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 442.2.4 Extent and trend of land degradation in the main river basins . . 44

2.3 Estimates of soil loss . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 482.4 Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49

Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51

3 Status and Trends in Land Degradation in AsiaHong Ma, Hongbo Ju

3.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 553.2 Desertification Monitoring and Assessment in Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . 563.3. Status and Trends in Land Degradation in Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58

3.3.1 West Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 583.3.2 South Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 593.3.3 Central Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60

3.4 Causes of land degradation in Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 613.4.1 Increasing population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 613.4.2 Increasing pressure on land . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 613.4.3 Decline in soil and water resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 623.4.4 Decline in natural forests and grasslands . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 623.4.5 Increasing atmospheric carbon and changing climate . . . . . . . 633.4.6 Deterioration in the living conditions for many people . . . . . . 63

3.5 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64

4 Trends in Land Degradation in Latin America and the Caribbean, the Role of Climate ChangeFernando Santibáñez and Paula Santibáñez

4.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 664.2 Soils . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 664.3 Biodiversity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 674.4 Water . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 674.5 Human drivers and ecosystems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 684.6 Desertification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 694.7 Present trends of Climate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 704.8 Ecosystems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 724.9 Agriculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79

5 Trends in Land Degradation in EuropeLuca Montanarella

5.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 835.2 Erosion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84

5.2.1 Qualitative analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 845.2.2 Quantitative analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86

5.3 Decline of soil organic matter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 875.3.1 Qualitative analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 875.3.2 Quantitative analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90

5.4 Compaction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 905.4.1 Qualitative analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 905.4.2 Quantitative analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92

5.5 Salinisation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 925.5.1 Qualitative analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93

5.6 Landslides . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 945.6.1 Qualitative analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 945.6.2 Quantitative analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96

5.7 Contamination . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 965.7.1 Qualitative analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 965.7.2 Quantitative analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99

5.8 Sealing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 995.8.1 Qualitative analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 995.8.2 Quantitative analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100

5.9 Biodiversity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1005.9.1 Qualitative analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1005.9.2 Quantitative analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101

5.10 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104

6 Climate and Land Degradation – an OverviewMannava V.K. Sivakumar, Robert Stefanski

6.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1066.2 Extent and Rate of Land Degradation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1076.3 Land Degradation – causes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1096.4 Climatic consequences of land degradation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1106.5 Climatic Factors in Land Degradation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111

6.5.1 Rainfall . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1136.5.2 Floods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1166.5.3 Droughts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1186.5.4 Solar radiation, temperature and evaporation . . . . . . . . . . 1206.5.5 Wind . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121

6.6 Wild Fires, Land Degradation and Atmospheric Emissions . . . . . . . 1256.7 Climate change and land degradation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126

6.7.1 Carbon sequestration to mitigate climate change and combat land degradation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127

Contents XI

6.8 Understanding the Interactions between Climate and Land Degradation – Role of WMO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128

6.8.1 Advocating for enhanced observing systems at national, regional and international levels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1296.8.2 Promoting effective early warning systems . . . . . . . . . . . . 1296.8.3 Further enhancing climate prediction capability . . . . . . . . . 1306.8.4 Assessing vulnerability and analyzing hazards . . . . . . . . . . 1306.8.5 Implementing risk management applications . . . . . . . . . . . 1306.8.6 Contributing actively to the implementation of the UN system’s International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) . 1316.8.7 Supporting the strengthening of the capabilities of the Parties and regional institutions with drought-related programmes . . 131

6.9 Future perspectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132

7 Climate, Extreme Events and Land DegradationMichèle L. Clarke and Helen M. Rendell

7.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1377.2 Classification of climate extremes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1387.3 Land Degradation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1417.4 Extreme rainfall events and their impacts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1417.4.1 Landslides, debris flows and floods in the northern Mediterranean . . . 141

7.4.2 Floods, gully incision and development in the Southwest USA . 1427.4.3 Drought . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1447.4.4 High Winds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145

7.5 Future trends in extreme events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1487.6 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149

8 Effects of Some Meteorological Parameterson Land Degradation in TanzaniaE. Matari

8.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1538.2 Impact of rainfall on land degradation in Tanzania . . . . . . . . . . . . 154

8.2.1 Loss of topsoil through water erosion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1568.2.2 Terrain deformation/mass movement through water erosion . . 156

8.3 Floods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1588.4 Drought . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158

8.5 Wind Erosion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1608.5.1 Causes of wind erosion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1618.5.2 Climatic Implications of dust storms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161

8.6 Climate change as cause and result of degradation of dryland areas . . 1628.7 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166

XII Contents

9 Rainfall and Land DegradationLeo Stroosnijder

9.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1689.2 Land degradation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170

9.2.1 Defining land degradation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1709.2.2 The land degradation debate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1709.2.3 Useful scales and proxies for land degradation . . . . . . . . . . 1719.2.4 Two conundrums . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175

9.3 Rainfall analysis for land degradation assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1769.3.1 Applications of the annual scale: trends and probabilities . . . . 1769.3.2 Application of the decadal scale: length of the growing season . 1779.3.3 Applications of the diurnal scale: classes of showers (threshold values),return period, dry spell analysis and agronomic and hydrological modelling with time steps of one day . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1799.3.4 Application of the minute scale: rainfall erosivity . . . . . . . . 181

9.4 The rain water balance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1839.4.1 The field water balance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1839.4.2 The infiltration water balance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1849.4.3 The soil water balance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1859.4.4 Stored and available water . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1859.4.5 Farmers’ perception of drought . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1869.4.6 Green water use efficiency (GWUE) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186

9.5 Dry spell mitigation and GWUE improvement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1879.6 Conclusions and recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188

9.6.1 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1889.6.2 Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191

10 Frequency of Wet and Dry Spells in TanzaniaFaustine F. Tilya and Mohamed S. Mhita . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197

10.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19710.2 Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19810.3 Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19910.4 Results on the Frequency of wet/dry spells . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20310.5 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204

11 Climate Variability, Climate Change and Land DegradationBeverley Henry, Greg McKeon, Jozef Syktus, John Carter, Ken Day, and David Rayner

11.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20511.2 The risk of land degradation in Australia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20711.3 Monitoring land condition and degradation risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209

Contents XIII

11.4 Climate information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21111.5 Understanding past land degradation in Australia’s rangelands . . . . . 212

11.5.1 Climate regime . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21211.5.2 Climate change and land degradation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21611.5.3 Future climate variations and land degradation . . . . . . . . . . 217Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219

12 Fire Weather and Land DegradationOpha Pauline Dube

12.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22412.2 The land degradation Problem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22612.3 Influential characteristics of fire in land degradation . . . . . . . . . . . 22712.4 Fire Weather . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 228

12.4.1 Fire season . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22912.4.2 Types of fire . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23012.4.3 Fire intensity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231

12.5 Fire weather and land degradation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23312.5.1 Effect of Fire on vegetation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23312.5.2 Fire and vegetation structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23312.5.3 Fire and Biodiversity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23512.5.4 Impacts of fire on soil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 237

12.6 Interface between fire weather and land degradation . . . . . . . . . . . 23912.7 Fire weather, Climate change, and Land degradation . . . . . . . . . . . 24012.8 Fire forecasting for mitigation of land degradation . . . . . . . . . . . . 24312.9 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245

Acknowledgement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 246References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 246

13 Importance of Drought Information in Monitoring and Assessing Land DegradationMoshe Inbar

13.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25313.2 Drought as a Natural Disaster . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25613.3 Droughts in Israel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25713.4 Human interference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25713.5 Solutions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26013.6 Drought events in Mediterranean and South America countries . . . . 26013.7 Discussion and Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 261

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 265

14 The Role of Land Degradation in the Agriculture and Environment NexusAnna Tengberg and Svanhild-Isabelle Batta Torheim

14.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 268

XIV Contents

14.2 Agriculture and environment – conflicts and synergies . . . . . . . . . 26914.3 PLEC – a local level framework to link environment and agriculture . . 27114.4 LUCID – a landscape level framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27414.5 The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and LADA – global frameworks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 276

14.5.1 The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27614.5.2 Land Degradation Assessment in Drylands . . . . . . . . . . . . 278

14.6 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 280Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 281References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 281

15 Using Weather and Climate Information for Landslide Prevention and MitigationRoy C. Sidle

15.1 Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28515.2 Overview of factors and processes related to climate-initiated landslides . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 286

15.2.1 Shallow, rapid landslides . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28715.2.2 Slow, deep-seated slope failures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28815.2.3 Surficial mass wasting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 290

15.3 Methods to link weather and climate data to landslide initiation . . . . 29115.3.1 Simple rainfall-landslide relationships . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29115.3.2 Multi-factor, empirical landslide hazard assessments . . . . . . 29315.3.3 Distributed, physically-based models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29615.3.4 Real-time warning systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 298

15.4 Effects of land degradation and climate change in landslide . . . . . . . 29915.4.1 Land degradation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29915.4.2 Climate change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 301

15.5 Summary related to weather and climate information needs . . . . . . . 302References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 303

16 Drought Hazard and Land Management in the Drylands of Southern AfricaJuliane Zeidler and Reagan Chunga

16.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30916.2 Drought and land degradation: conceptual interlinkages . . . . . . . . 31016.3 Response actions in the southern African region: what can we learn? . . 313

16.3.1 Early Warning Systems (EWS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31316.3.2 Policy instruments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 319

16.4 Synthesis and conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 323Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 324References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 324

Contents XV

17 Climate Monitoring in the Southern Africa Development CommunityBradwell J. Garanganga

17.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32717.2 Climate related natural disasters including land degradation . . . . . . 32917.3 Overview of the summer climate system of southern Africa . . . . . . . 33017.4 El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33117.5 Cycles of droughts in southern Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33217.6 Cycles of floods over southern Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33417.7 Climate extremes and ecosystems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33417.8 Climate monitoring as a regional strategy to mitigate climate-related disasters and land degradation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33617.9 Institutional linkages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 337

17.9.1 International aid and development agencies . . . . . . . . . . . . 33817.9.2 Government ministries and departments . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33817.9.3 Private sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 338

17.10 Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum . . . . . . . . . . . 33817.11 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 340

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 341

18 Carbon Sequestration and Land DegradationAlan J. Franzluebbers and Paul C. Doraiswamy

18.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34318.2 Management Approaches . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 346

18.2.1 Tree Plantings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34718.2.2 Conservation-Tillage Cropping . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34918.2.3 Animal Manure Application . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35018.2.4 Green-Manure Cropping Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35318.2.6 Cropland-Grazingland Rotation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35318.2.7 Optimal Fertilization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 355

18.3 Summary and Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 356References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 356

19 Sustainable Land Management Through Soil Organic Carbon Management and Sequestration – The GEFSOC Modelling SystemE. Milne, M.F. Sessay, M. Easter, K. Paustian, and K. Killian

19.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35919.2 Project Rationale and Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36019.3 Development of the GEFSOC Modelling System . . . . . . . . . . . . . 362

19.4 Estimated SOC Stocks and Stock Changes Between 1990 and 2030 and Implications for Sustainable Land Management . . . 36419.4.1 The Brazilian Amazon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36519.4.2 The Indian Indo-Gangetic Plains . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36619.4.3 Jordan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36719.4.4 Kenya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 368

XVI Contents

19.5 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 369Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 369References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 369

20 Seasonal Variation of Carbon Dioxide, Rainfall, NDVI and it’s Association to Land Degradation in TanzaniaJuliana J. Adosi

20.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37320.2 Objective . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37420.2 Data and Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37520.3 Results and Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 376

20.3.1 Monthly NDVI (1982-2005) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37620.3.2 Tabora Rainfall . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37620.3.3 Deforestation, forest fire, over grazing, floods and droughts in Tanzania . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37620.3.4 Floods and Droughts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38020.3.4 Carbon dioxide . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38120.3.5 Glacier and thick forests of Kilimanjaro . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38320.3.6 Mount Oldonyo Lengai (3450m) eruption March 2006 . . . . . 384

20.4 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38620.5 Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38620.6 Acknowledgement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 388

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 388

21 Land Degradation Control in Northern AfricaIsmail H. M. El Bagouri

21.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39221.2 Land use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39221.3 Climatic Features . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 393

21.3.1 General features . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39321.3.2 Rainfall variability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39421.3.3 Droughts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 394

21.4 State of Water Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39621.5 Degradation processes in the sub-region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 396

21.5.1 Rangelands . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39621.5.2 Cultivated Areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39721.5.3 Forestland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 398

21.6 Combating Land Degradation in the sub-region . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39821.6.1 Activities prior to UNCCD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39821.6.2 After the inception of UNCCD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39921.6.3 Improved Measures for Combating Desertification. . . . . . . . 399

21.7 Combating Land Degradation – the Way Forward . . . . . . . . . . . . . 400References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 403

Contents XVII

22 Challenges and Trade-Offs in Environmental and Financial Approaches of the Afforestation of Degraded LandsViorel Blujdea

22.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40522.2 Kyoto Protocol’s JI/CDM Approach in Afforestation Activities . . . . . 406

22.2.1 Afforestation project cycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40622.2.2 Development of partnership . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40722.2.3 Financial shares, incentives and compensations . . . . . . . . . 40722.2.4 Availability, status and actual use of land . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40922.2.5 Type of forest structure/plantation to be created . . . . . . . . . 41022.2.6 Selection of species to be planted . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41022.2.7 Afforestation technology and plantation maintaining frame . . 41222.2.8 Forest administration and planning, management type . . . . . 41422.2.9 Forest sustainability and regional/local integration . . . . . . . 41422.2.10 Project‘s carbon commercial aspects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 415

22.3 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 419References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 419

23 The EU-Funded Medcoastland Thematic Network and its Findings in Combating Land Degradation in the Mediterranean RegionPandi Zdruli, Cosimo Lacirignola, Nicola Lamaddalenaand Giuliana Trisorio Liuzzi

23.1 Land resources and population pressure in the Mediterranean . . . . . 42223.2 The MEDCOASTLAND methodological framework . . . . . . . . . . . 424

23.2.1 Partnership . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42723.2.2 Objectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42723.2.3 Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42823.2.4 Lessons learnt: The problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42823.2.5 Climate change and its possible effects in the Mediterranean . 42923.2.6 Lessons learnt: Responses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43023.2.7 Lessons learnt: Impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43123.2.8 Lessons learnt: Future outlook and recommendations . . . . . . 431Responsible persons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 434References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 434

24 Managing Land Use, Protecting Land and Mitigating Land Degradation: Tanzania Case StudyR. S. Muyungi

24.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43824.2 Strategy on Urgent Actions to Combat the Degradation of Land and Water Catchment Areas in Tanzania . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 439

24.2.1 Challenges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44024.3 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 445

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 445

XVIII Contents

25 Implementation of Initiatives for Addressing Climate Change and Land Degradation: A Look at the Philippine ContextRodrigo U. Fuentes and Roger Concepcion

25.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44725.2 Growth and environmental sustainability: the development challenge in the Asian context . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44825.3 The inextricable links between climate change and land degradation: the evidence of intense pressure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 449

25.3.1 Agriculture and climate change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44925.3.2 Forests and watersheds: the critical influences to agriculture and climate change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 450

25.4 Initiatives for addressing land degradation and climate change: a Philippine perspective . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 451

25.4.1 Imperatives for addressing land degradation and climate change issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45325.4.2 Extent and distribution of land degradation . . . . . . . . . . . . 45325.4.3 Soil mining and decline of soil productivity . . . . . . . . . . . . 45325.4.4 Causal factors of land degradation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 456

25.5 Actions taken to comply with the Conventions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45925.5.1 Compliance with the UN Framework Convention for Climate Change (UNFCCC) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45925.5.2 Compliance with the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 460

25.6 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 463References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 466

26 Successful Grassland Regeneration in a Severely Degraded Catchment: a Whole of Government Approach in North West AustraliaP. E Novelly and I. W Watson

26.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46926.2 Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47026.3 Description of the project area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 472

26.3.1 Climate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47226.3.2 Landforms, soils and vegetation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 474

26.4 Regeneration Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47426.4.1 Why was the Regeneration so Successful? . . . . . . . . . . . . . 476

26.6 Discussion and Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 483References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 484

27 Land Degradation Management in Southern AfricaJosephine Philip Msangi

27.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48827.2 Land Degradation Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 490

Contents XIX

27.3 Conclusions and Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 496References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 498

28 Successful Experiences of Sustainable Land Use in Hyperarid, Arid and Semiarid Zones from PeruJuan Torres Guevara and Dora Velásquez Milla

28.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50128.2 The Desertification Problem in Peru . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 502

28.2.1 Some important features of the Peruvian ecology . . . . . . . . . 50228.2.2 Desertification Situation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50428.2.3 Identification of affected and vulnerable groups . . . . . . . . . 505

28.3 Case studies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50528.3.1 Seasonally Dry Forests . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50528.3.2 Atiquipa Fog Oases (“LOMAS”) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51028.3.3 Andean Agroecosystems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 515

28.4 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 519References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 519

29 Role of Organic Agriculture in Preventing and Reversing Land DegradationSue Edwards

29.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52429.2 What is organic agriculture? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52529.3 Mitigating climate change through organic agriculture . . . . . . . . . . 525

29.3.1 Carbon dioxide . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52629.3.2 Methane . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52629.3.3 Nitrous oxide . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52729.3.4 Organic agriculture’s contribution to carbon sequestration . . . 527

29.4 Can organic agriculture combat poverty? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52829.4.1 Why the land degradation? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52929.4.2 The sustainable agriculture project . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53029.4.3 Impact of compost on crop yields . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53129.4.4 Ethiopia and organic production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 534

29.5 Organic agriculture in Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 534References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 536

30 Using Better Climate Prediction in the Implementationof National Action Programmes – (Eastern) EuropeVesselin Alexandrov

30.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53730.2 CLIPS surveys . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53830.3 Towards better SIP and climate forecasting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54230.4 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 548

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 550

XX Contents

31 Improving NAP Implementation through Effective Use of Early Warning:Experiences in the IGAD Sub-RegionReuben Sinange

31.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55431.2 Food Security and Early Warning Systems (FSEWS) in the region . . . 554

31.2.1 Case for improving FSEWS in the region . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55531.2.2 Challenges to FSEWS in the Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55531.2.3 Kenyan case study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 556

31.3 Trends towards building a case for environmental early warning system (EEWS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 559

31.3.1 Objectives, principles and scope of an EEWS and FSEWS . . . . 55931.3.2 Parameters, indicators for a desertification early warning system (DEWS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 560

31.4 National Action Programmes (NAPs): objectives and challenges . . . . 56031.5 Conclusions and recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 561

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 563

32 Role of Drought Monitoring and Management in NAP ImplementationHossein Badripour

32.1 Natural disasters in Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56632.2 Desertification and drought . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56832.3 Drought concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56932.4 Drought aspects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57032.5 Drought indices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57232.6 Drought, Poverty and desertification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57432.7 Drought monitoring . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57632.8 Drought management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 579

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 581

33 Climate and National Action Programs in Latin AmericaGertjan B. Beekman

33.1 Environmental Effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58433.2 Reducing Climate Related Disaster Risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58433.3 Harmonization of Indicators of Desertificationin Latin America and establishment of a common ‘’base line’’ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 585

33.3.1 Objectives and common interest . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58833.3.2 Program description . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58933.3.3 Frame of Reference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58933.3.4 The project’s strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59133.3.5 Harmonization and compilation existing indicators/data . . . . 591

33.4 Monitoring System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59533.4.1 Monitoring as a key component of Early Warning . . . . . . . . 596

33.5 Institutional strengthening/training . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 600

Contents XXI

33.6 Design of policy proposals to address desertification/public awareness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60033.7 Expected outcome/results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60133.8 Environmental and social aspects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60133.9 Beneficiaries/benefits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60133.10 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 602

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 603

34 Conclusions and RecommendationsMannava V. K. Sivakumar and Ndegwa Ndiang’ui

34.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60534.2 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 605

34.2.1 Current use of weather and climate information for monitoring and assessing land degradation and in developing sustainable land management practices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60534.2.2 Promoting more effective use of weather and climate information for reducing land degradation . . . . . . . . . . . . 60634.2.3 Weather and climate information to improve the implementation of National Action Programmes (NAPs) of the UNCCD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 606

34.3 Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60734.3.1 Current use of weather and climate information for monitoring and assessing land degradation and in developing sustainableland management practices . . . . 60734.3.2 Promoting more effective use of weather and climate information for reducing land degradation . . . . . . . . . . . . 60734.3.3 Weather and climate information to improve the implementation of National Action Programmes (NAPs) of the UNCCD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 608

35 Workshop Statement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 611

Subject Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 613

XXII Contents

List of Contributors

Juliana J. AdosiTanzanian Meteorological AgencyP.O. Box 3056Dar Es Salaam, United Republic of TanzaniaE-mail: julianaadosi@yahoo.com

Vesselin Alexandrov National Institute of Meteorologyand Hydrology66 Tsarigradsko shoseBG-1784 Sofia, BulgariaE-mail: vesselin.alexandrov@meteo.bg

Hossein BadripourForest, Range and Watershed ManagementOrganizationNo. 31, West Zartosht St.Tehran, Islamic Republic of IranE-mail: badripour@yahoo.com

Gertjan BeekmanInter-American Institute for Cooperationin Agriculture (IICA)SHIS QI 23, Conj. 8, casa 10 Lago Sul71660080 Brasilia, BrazilE-mail: gbbeekman@yahoo.com or gertjan.beekman@iica.int

Viorel BlujdeaForest Research and Management InstituteSos. Stefanesti 128077190 Voluntari, RomaniaE-mail: viorel_b@yahoo.com

John CarterQueensland Climate Change Centrefor ExcellenceIndooroopilly Queensland 4068, AustraliaE-mail: john.carter@climatechange.qld.gov.au

Reagan ChungaIntegrated Environmental ConsultantsNamibia (IECN)P.O. Box 86634Eros, Windhoek, NamibiaE-mail: r.chunga@iecn-namibia.com

Michèle ClarkeUniversity of NottinghamNottingham G7 2RD, United KingdomE-mail: Michele.clarke@nottingham.ac.uk

Roger ConcepcionBureau of Soils and Water Management(BSWM)Department of AgricultureBSWM Bldg., Elliptical RoadDiliman, Quezon City, Philippines 1101E-mail: bswm@pworld.net.ph

Ken DayQueensland Climate Change Centrefor ExcellenceIndooroopilly Queensland 4068, AustraliaE-mail: ken.a.day@climatechange.qld.gov.au

Paul C. DoraiswamyUnited States Department of AgricultureAgricultural Research ServiceBeltsville, MD 2075, USAE-mail: pdoraisw@asrr.arsusda.gov

Opha Pauline DubeUniversity of BotwanaGaborone, BotswanaE-mail: DUBEOP@mopipi.ub.bw

M EasterThe Natural Resources Ecology LaboratoryColorado State University1499 Campus Delivery, Fort CollinsColorado 80523, USAE-mail: marke@nrel.colostate.edu

Sue EdwardsInstitute for Sustainable DevelopmentP.O. Box 171, code 1110Addis Ababa, EthiopiaE-mail: sustaindeveth@ethionet.et orsustainet@yahoo.co.uk

Ismail H.M. El-BagouriDesert Research Center (DRC)1 El-Mathaf St MatariahCairo, EgyptE-mail: bagouri38@yahoo.com

Alan FranzleubbersUnited States Department of Agriculture(USDA),Agricultural Research Service1420 Experiment Station RoadWatkinsville, Georgia 30677-2373, USAE-mail: afranz@uga.edu

Rodrigo U. FuentesEnvironment SectionEnvironment and Sustainable DevelopmentDivision, 5th Floor, UN BuildingRajadamnern Nok Ave10200 Bangkok, ThailandE-mail: fuentesrod@gmail.com

Bradwell J. GarangangaSADC Drought Monitoring CentreSADC SecretariatPrivate Bag 0095, Gaborone, BotswanaE-mail: bjgarangan@yahoo.co.uk

Juan Jesus Torres GuevaraNacional Agricucultural UniversityLa Monlina, PeruE-mail: uchuguilla1952@yahoo.com

Beverley HenryDepartment of Natural Resources and Water80 Meiers Rd, IndooroopillyQueensland 4068, AustraliaE-mail: Beverley.henry@nrw.gov.au

Ma HongState Laboratory for Remote Sensing and In-formation TechniquesInstitute of Forest Resource InformationTechnologiesChinese Academy of Forestry, Haidian DistrictBeijing, ChinaE-mail: lilee@sogou.com/mahong@caf.ac.cn

Moshe InbarUniversity of HaifaHaifa 31905, IsraelEmail : inbar@geo.haifa.ac.il

Hongbo JuAsian Thematic Programme Networkon Desertification Monitoring &Assessment (TPNI) Task ManagerState Laboratory for Remote Sensingand Information TechniquesInstitute of Forest Resource InformationTechnologiesChinese Academy of ForestryHaidian DistrictBeijing, ChinaE-mail: ju@caf.ac.cn

K KillianThe Natural Resources Ecology LaboratoryColorado State University1499 Campus Delivery, Fort CollinsColorado 80523, USAE-mail: kendrick@nrel.colostate.edu

Cosimo LacirignolaCIHEAM Mediterranean AgronomicInstitute of BariVia Cegli 9, 70010 Valenzano (BA), ItalyE-mail: lacirignola@iamb.it

Nicola Lamaddalena CIHEAM Mediterranean AgronomicInstitute of BariLand and Water DepartmentVia Cegli 9, 70010 Valenzano (BA), ItalyE-mail: lamaddalena@iamb.it

Giuliana Trisorio LiuzziCIHEAM/University of BariFaculty of AgricultureVia Amendola 165/A, 70126 Bari, ItalyE-mail: giuliana.trisorio@agr.uniba.it

Eliakim E. MatariTanzania Meteorological AgencyP.O. 3056Dar Es Salaam, United Republic of TanzaniaE-mail: ematari@meteo.go.tz

XXIV List of Contributors

Greg McKeon Queensland Climate Change Centrefor ExcellenceIndooroopilly Queensland 4068, AustraliaE-mail: greg.mckeon@climatechange.qld.gov.au

Mohamed S. MhitaTanzania Meteorological AgencyP.O. 3056Dar Es Salaam, United Republic of TanzaniaE-mail: mmhita@meteo.go.tz

Dora Velásquez MillaCIZA UNALM and CCTACamilo Carrillo 300 AJesús María – Lima, Perú.E-mail: doravelasquez@yahoo.com

Eleanor Milne Rm 111, Department of Soiland Crop SciencesColorado State University1170 Campus DeliveryFort Collins, Colorado 80523-1170, USAE-mail: emilne@lamar.colostate.edu

Josephine Philip MsangiFaculty of Agriculture and Natural ResourcesUniversity of Namibia, Private Bag 13301Windhoek, NamibiaE-mail: jpmsangi@unam.na

Luca MontanerellaEuropean CommissionJoint Research CenterT.P. 280, I-21020 ISPRA (VA), ItalyE-mail: luca.montanarella@jrc.it

R.S. MuyungiVice Presiden’t OfficeDivision of EnvironmentP.O. Box 5380Dar Es Salaam, United Republic of TanzaniaE-mail: tanzania37@hotmail.com

Ndegwa Ndiang‘uiCommittee on Science and Technology (CST)United Nations Conventionto Combat DesertificationHermann - Ehlers - Str. 10D-53113 Bonn, GermanyE-mail: nndiangui@unccd.int

Paul NovellyDepartment of Agricultureand Food Western AustraliaFrank Wise Institute, P.O. Box 19Kununurra WA 6743, AustraliaE-mail: pnovelly@agric.wa.gov.au

K PaustianThe Natural Resources Ecology LaboratoryColorado State University1499 Campus Delivery, Fort CollinsColorado 80523, USAE-mail: keithp@nrel.colostate.edu

David Rayner Queensland Climate Change Centrefor ExcellenceIndooroopilly Queensland 4068, AustraliaE-mail: david.rayner@climatechange.qld.gov.au

Helen Rendell Loughborough UniversityLoughborough LE11United KingdomE-mail: H.M.Rendell@lboro.ac.uk

Uriel Safriel 9920 Alta-Springs WayRockville, MD 20850United States of AmericaE-mail: uriel36@gmail.com

Fernando SantibanezUniversity of ChileCentre on Agriculture and EnvironmentSanta rosa 11315, Santiago, ChileE-mail: fsantiba@uchile.cl

Paula SantibáñezUniversity of ChileDoctorate on Agrarianand Veterinarian SciencesSanta rosa 11315, Santiago, ChileE-mail: psvsantibanez@gmail.com

Mohamed F. SessayUNEP, Division of GEF CoordinationRegional Office for AfricaP.O. Box 30552Nairobi, KenyaE-mail: Mohamed.Sessay@unep.org

List of Contributors XXV

Roy C. SidleGeo-hazards DivisionDisaster Prevention Research InstituteUniversity of KyotoGkasho, UjiKyoto 611-0011, JapanE-mail: sidle@slope.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp

Reuben SinangeP.O. Box 19823 - 00200Nairobi, KenyaE-mail: reubensinange@yahoo.com

Mannava V.K. SivakumarAgricultural Meteorology DivisionWorld Meteorological Organization7bis Avenue de la PaixP.O. Box 23001211 Geneva 2, SwitzerlandE-mail: msivakumar@wmo.int

Jozef SyktusQueensland Climate Change Centrefor ExcellenceIndooroopilly Queensland 4068, AustraliaE-mail: jozef.syktus@climatechange.qld.gov.au

Robert StefanskiAgricultural Meteorology DivisionWorld Meteorological Organization7bis Avenue de la PaixP.O. Box 23001211 Geneva 2, SwitzerlandE-mail: rstefanski@wmo.int

Leo StroosnijderWageningen UniversitySoil Science Center, P.O. Box 476700 AA Wageningen, NetherlandsE-mail: Leo.Stroosnijder@wur.nl

Anna TengbergRegional Centre for Asiaand the Pacificc/o of UNDP, GPO Box 618Bangkok, Thailand

E-mail: Anna.Tengberg@unep.orgL. ThiombianoSoil ResourcesFAO, Regional Office for AfricaP.O Box 1628, Accra, GhanaE-mail:Lamourdia.Thiombiano@fao.org

F. Faustine TilyaTanzania Meteorological AgencyData Services, P.O. Box 3056Dar Es Salaam, United Republic of TanzaniaE-mail: ftilya@meteo.go.tz

Svanhild-Isabelle Batta TorheimDevelopment FundGrensen 9b, 0159 Oslo, NorwayE-mail:bell@u-fondet.no

Ignacio Tourino-SotoInternational Water Management InstituteAfrica Regional OfficePMB 112, Cantonments, Accra, GhanaE-mail: i.tourino@cgiar.org / nacho_touri-no@yahoo.fr

IW WatsonDepartment of Agriculture & FoodWestern AustraliaNortham WA 6401, AustraliaE-mail: iwatson@agric.wa.gov.au

Pandi ZdruliLand and Water DepartmentCIHEAM-Mediterranean AgronomicInstitute of BariVia Ceglie 9, 70010 Valenzano (BA), ItalyEmail: pandi@iamb.it

Julianne ZeidlerIntegrated Environmental ConsultantsNamibia (IECN)P.O. Box 86634, ErosWindhoek, NamibiaE-mail: j.zeidler@iecn-namibia.com

XXVI List of Contributors