Environmental Pollution

Volume 25

Series EditorsBrian J. AllowayUniversity of Reading Department of Soil Science, Reading, United Kingdom

Jack T. TrevorsOntario Agricultural College, University of Guelph School of Environmental Sciences, Guelph, Ontario, Canada

The Environmental Pollution book series includes current, comprehensive texts on critical national and global environmental issues useful to scientists in academia, industry and government from diverse disciplines. These include water, air, and soil pollution, organic and inorganic pollution, risk assessment, human and environmental health, environmental biotechnology, global ecology, mathematics and computing as related to environmental pollution, environmental modelling, environmental chemistry and physics, biology, toxicology, conservation and biodiversity, agricultural sciences, pesticides, environmental engineering, bioreme-diation/biorestoration, and environmental economics. Environmental problems and solutions are complex and interrelated. Complex problems often require complex solutions. The linkage of many disciplines can result in new approaches to old and new environmental problems as well as pollution prevention. This knowledge will assist in understanding, maintaining and improving the biosphere in which we live.

Proposals for this book series can be sent to either of the Series’ Editors:

Brian Alloway at B.J.Alloway@reading.ac.uk

Jack Trevors at jtrevors@uoguelph.ca

or the Publishing Editor, Paul Roos, at Paul.Roos@springer.com

More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/5929

Wim de Vries • Jean-Paul HettelinghMaximilian PoschEditors

Critical Loads and Dynamic Risk Assessments

Nitrogen, Acidity and Metals in Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecosystems

1 3

ISSN 1566-0745Environmental PollutionISBN 978-94-017-9507-4 ISBN 978-94-017-9508-1 (eBook)DOI 10.1007/978-94-017-9508-1

Library of Congress Control Number: 2014960242

Springer Dordrecht Heidelberg New York London© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed.The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made.

Printed on acid-free paper

Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com)

EditorsWim de VriesAlterra Wageningen Universityand Research CentreWageningenThe Netherlands

Jean-Paul HettelinghRIVM – Coordination Centre for EffectsBilthovenThe Netherlands

Maximilian PoschRIVM – Coordination Centre for EffectsBilthovenThe Netherlands

v

Foreword

Initial concern on the negative effects of acidic deposition on natural ecosystems was voiced in Scandinavia during the 1970s, where fish death was attributed to sur-face water acidification caused by elevated sulphur deposition. In the beginning of the 1980s, extensive forest damage in Central Europe linked to high levels of acidic deposition, led to wide-spread public and political concern for the vitality of forests. In 1979 member states of the UN Economic Commission for Europe adopted the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution. This Convention mobil-ised scientific research—including work by many authors in this book—for the support of air pollution abatement policies to mitigate impacts on human health and the environment.

During the 1980s critical loads were derived for acidification and nitrogen- induced eutrophication as early warning indicators of excessive atmospheric deposition of sulphur and nitrogen. Near the end of the 1990s, critical loads were also developed to assess the adverse effects of heavy metal deposition. In concert, various dynamic models were developed to evaluate the temporal impacts of atmospheric deposition of acidic and eutrophying compounds and heavy metals on ecosystems.

This book provides an overview of the development of critical load research for terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and applications in support of air pollution abatement policies during the past 30 years. It consists of 26 chapters, divided over five major themes:

1. Assessment of indicators and thresholds for air pollutant impacts;2. Empirical and process-model based critical loads of nitrogen, acidity and metals

for characteristic ecosystems;3. Dynamic modelling approaches for the temporal assessment of abiotic changes

owing to atmospheric deposition of nitrogen, sulphur and heavy metals at the site-specific scale;

4. Critical loads and dynamic model applications on a regional scale in Europe, Asia and North America;

5. Integrated assessment of changes in environmental quality and ecosystem ser-vices as affected by air pollution under a changing climate.

vi Foreword

The book concludes with a review of the critical loads approach in the context of uncertainty and of possible future scientific and policy directions.

This book marks the successful collaboration over more than 30 years, between researchers in the field of environmental impacts of air pollution in general, and be-tween RIVM and Alterra in particular. We congratulate the authors of this scientific record of achievements, and expect that this book will serve as a basis to stimulate effects-based research for the challenges ahead.

Prof.dr. A.N. van der ZandeDirector GeneralNational Institute for Public Healthand the Environment (RIVM)

Ir. K. Slingerland Director General Alterra Wageningen University and Research Centre (WUR)

vii

Acknowledgements

The methods and results presented in this book would be inexistent without the close collaboration with communities of scientists that work under the Effects Pro-gramme of the UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP Convention). Of similar importance are the research programmes of the European Union, North America and China, that enhanced the collaboration with, and between, institutions and individuals from various fields of environmental sci-ence that resulted in contributions to this book.

The stimulus of 25 years of bilateral collaboration between the Coordination Cen-tre for Effects (CCE) at the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) and the Alterra Research Centre at Wageningen University and Research Centre (WUR), as well as the multi-lateral collaboration with the colleagues implied above, has been instrumental both to the idea, about five years ago, and the realisa-tion of this work.

This book would not have materialized without the support of many. The editors wish to acknowledge in particular:

• The Directorate for Climate, Air and Noise of the Dutch Ministry of Infrastruc-ture and the Environment for their continued support both of the CCE and Alterra activities enabling the design and compilation of knowledge on impacts of air pollution for European and national environmental policies,

• The Ministry of Economic Affairs that funded part of the work under the stra-tegic research program “Sustainable spatial development of ecosystems, land-scapes, seas and regions",

• The management of RIVM and Alterra for providing resources needed for the accomplishment of this effort,

• The Working Group on Effects and Task Force of the International Cooperative Programme on the Modelling and Mapping of Critical Levels and Loads and Air Pollution Effects, Risks and Trends (ICP M&M) under the LRTAP Convention for inspiration, collaboration, and relevant application options for the support of European air pollution policies,

• The EMEP Meteorological Synthesizing Centres East and West and the EMEP Centre for Integrated Assessment at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis for their collaboration in the field of atmospheric dispersion and integrated assessment modelling,

viii Acknowledgements

• The European Commission’s LIFE III Preparatory Projects, for co-funding the participation of the CCE in the European Consortium for Modelling Air pollu-tion and Climate Strategies (EC4MACS: LIFE06 ENV/AT/PREP/06),

• The co-funding of Alterra and CCE in the ECLAIRE project Effects of Climate Change on Air Pollution and Response Strategies for European Ecosystems (ECLAIRE: grant agreement no 282910) under the European Union’s 7th Framework Programme for Research and Technological Development.

The editors are very grateful to have benefited from the skills of Jan Cees Voogd of Alterra in expertly handling a variety of tools for the editing of text, references and graphics.

Finally, authors and co-authors of the chapters are thanked for their patience with the editors of this book.

ix

Contents

1 The History and Current State of Critical Loads and Dynamic Modelling Assessments .............................................................................. 1Wim de Vries, Jean-Paul Hettelingh and Maximilian Posch

Part I Assessment of Indicators for Air Pollutant Impacts

2 Geochemical Indicators for Use in the Computation of Critical Loads and Dynamic Risk Assessments ..................................................... 15Wim de Vries, Maximilian Posch, Harald U. Sverdrup, Thorjørn Larssen, Heleen A. de Wit, Roland Bobbink and Jean-Paul Hettelingh

3 Plant Species Diversity Indicators for Use in the Computation of Critical Loads and Dynamic Risk Assessments .................................. 59Han F. van Dobben, Maximilian Posch, G. W. Wieger Wamelink, Jean-Paul Hettelingh and Wim de Vries

Part II Empirical and Model-Based Critical Loads and Target Loads

4 Effects and Empirical Critical Loads of Nitrogen for Europe ............... 85Roland Bobbink, Hilde Tomassen, Maaike Weijters, Leon van den Berg, Joachim Strengbom, Sabine Braun, Annika Nordin, Kirsten Schütz and Jean-Paul Hettelingh

5 Effects and Empirical Critical Loads of Nitrogen for Ecoregions of the United States .................................................................................... 129Linda H. Pardo, Molly J. Robin-Abbott, Mark E. Fenn, Christine L. Goodale, Linda H. Geiser, Charles T. Driscoll, Edith B. Allen, Jill S. Baron, Roland Bobbink, William D. Bowman, Christopher M. Clark, Bridget Emmett, Frank S. Gilliam, Tara L. Greaver, Sharon J. Hall, Erik A. Lilleskov, Lingli Liu, Jason A. Lynch, Knute J. Nadelhoffer, Steven J. Perakis, John L. Stoddard, Kathleen C. Weathers and Robin L. Dennis

x Contents

6 Mass Balance Models to Derive Critical Loads of Nitrogen and Acidity for Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecosystems .............................. 171Maximilian Posch, Wim de Vries and Harald U. Sverdrup

7 Mass Balance Approaches to Assess Critical Loads and Target Loads of Metals for Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecosystems ....................... 207Wim de Vries, Jan E. Groenenberg and Maximilian Posch

Part III Dynamic Modelling for the Assessment of Air Pollution Impacts at Site Scale

8 Dynamic Geochemical Models to Assess Deposition Impacts and Target Loads of Acidity for Soils and Surface Waters .................... 225Luc T. C. Bonten, Gert Jan Reinds, Jan E. Groenenberg, Wim de Vries, Maximilian Posch, Chris D. Evans, Salim Belyazid, Sabine Braun, Filip Moldan, Harald U. Sverdrup and Daniel Kurz

9 Dynamic Geochemical Models to Assess Deposition Impacts of Metals for Soils and Surface Waters .................................................... 253Jan E. Groenenberg, Edward Tipping, Luc T. C. Bonten and Wim de Vries

10 Use of Combined Biogeochemical Model Approaches and Empirical Data to Assess Critical Loads of Nitrogen ...................... 269Mark E. Fenn, Charles T. Driscoll, Qingtao Zhou, Leela E. Rao, Thomas Meixner, Edith B. Allen, Fengming Yuan and Timothy J. Sullivan

11 Field Survey Based Models for Exploring Nitrogen and Acidity Effects on Plant Species Diversity and Assessing Long-Term Critical Loads ............................................................................................. 297Ed C. Rowe, G. W. Wieger Wamelink, Simon M. Smart, Adam Butler, Peter A. Henrys, Han F. van Dobben, Gert Jan Reinds, Chris D. Evans, Johannes Kros and Wim de Vries

12 Use of an Integrated Soil-Vegetation Model to Assess Impacts of Atmospheric Deposition and Climate Change on Plant Species Diversity ......................................................................................... 327Salim Belyazid, Harald U. Sverdrup, Daniel Kurz and Sabine Braun

13 Evaluation of Plant Responses to Atmospheric Nitrogen Deposition in France Using Integrated Soil-Vegetation Models ............ 359Anne Probst, Carole Obeidy, Noémie Gaudio, Salim Belyazid, Jean-Claude Gégout, Didier Alard, Emmanuel Corket, Jean-Paul Party, Thierry Gauquelin, Arnaud Mansat, Bengt Nihlgård, Sophie Leguédois and Harald U. Sverdrup

xiContents

14 Use of an Empirical Model Approach for Modelling Trends of Ecological Sustainability ....................................................................... 381Angela Schlutow, Thomas Dirnböck, Tomasz Pecka and Thomas Scheuschner

Part IV Critical Loads and Dynamic Model Applications on a Regional Scale

15 Assessment of Critical Loads of Sulphur and Nitrogen and Their Exceedances for Terrestrial Ecosystems in the Northern Hemisphere ................................................................................ 403Gert Jan Reinds, Maximilian Posch, Julian Aherne and Martin Forsius

16 Critical Load Assessments for Sulphur and Nitrogen for Soils and Surface Waters in China .................................................................... 419Lei Duan, Yu Zhao and Jiming Hao

17 Assessment of Critical Loads of Acidity and Their Exceedances for European Lakes .................................................................................... 439Chris J. Curtis, Maximilian Posch, Julian Aherne, Jens Fölster, Martin Forsius, Thorjørn Larssen and Filip Moldan

18 National-Scale Dynamic Model Applications for Nordic Lake Catchments ................................................................................................. 463Martin Forsius, Filip Moldan, Thorjørn Larssen, Maximilian Posch, Julian Aherne, Espen Lund, Richard F. Wright and B. Jack Cosby

19 Critical Load Assessments and Dynamic Model Applications for Lakes in North America ...................................................................... 485Julian Aherne and Dean Jeffries

20 Critical Loads and Critical Limits of Cadmium, Copper, Lead and Zinc and Their Exceedances for Terrestrial Ecosystems in the United Kingdom .............................................................................. 505Jane Hall, Edward Tipping, Stephen Lofts, Michael Ashmore and Laura Shotbolt

21 Critical Loads of Cadmium, Lead and Mercury and Their Exceedances in Europe .............................................................................. 523Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Gudrun Schütze, Wim de Vries, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Ilia Ilyin, Gert Jan Reinds, Jaap Slootweg and Oleg Travnikov

22 Derivation of Critical Loads of Nitrogen for Habitat Types and Their Exceedances in the Netherlands .............................................. 547Han F. van Dobben, Arjen van Hinsberg, Dick Bal, Janet P. Mol-Dijkstra, Henricus J.J. Wieggers, Johannes Kros and Wim de Vries

xii

23 Assessing the Impacts of Nitrogen Deposition on Plant Species Richness in Europe ..................................................................................... 573Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Carly J. Stevens, Maximilian Posch, Roland Bobbink and Wim de Vries

Part V Integrated Assessment, Policy Applications and Synthesis

24 Integrated Assessment of Impacts of Atmospheric Deposition and Climate Change on Forest Ecosystem Services in Europe ............. 589Wim de Vries, Maximilian Posch, Gert Jan Reinds, Luc T. C. Bonten, Janet P. Mol-Dijkstra, G. W. Wieger Wamelink and Jean-Paul Hettelingh

25 Effects-Based Integrated Assessment Modelling for the Support of European Air Pollution Abatement Policies ........................................ 613Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Maximilian Posch, Jaap Slootweg, Gert Jan Reinds, Wim de Vries, Anne-Christine Le Gall and Rob Maas

26 Synthesis...................................................................................................... 637Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Wim de Vries and Maximilian Posch

Annex: Direct Impacts on Ecosystems and Human Health Induced by Exposure to Ambient Concentrations of Air Pollutants and Related Critical Levels .................................................................................... 649

Index .................................................................................................................. 657

Contents

xiii

Contributors

Julian Aherne Environmental and Resource Studies, Trent University, Peterborough, ON, Canada

Didier Alard UMR BioGeco Université Bordeaux 1, Talence, France

Edith B. Allen Department of Botany and Plant Sciences and Center for Conservation Biology, University of California, Riverside, CA, USA

Michael Ashmore Environment Department, University of York, Heslington, York, UK

Dick Bal Ministry of Economic Affairs, Den Haag, The Netherlands

Jill S. Baron US Geological Survey, Fort Collins, CO, USA

Salim Belyazid Belyazid Consulting & Communication, Malmö, Sweden

Department of Chemical Engineering, Lund University, Lund, Sweden

Roland Bobbink B-Ware Research Centre, Radboud University Nijmegen, Nijmegen, The Netherlands

Luc T. C. Bonten Alterra, Wageningen University and Research Centre, Wageningen, The Netherlands

William D. Bowman University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA

Sabine Braun Institute for Applied Plant Biology, Schönenbuch, Switzerland

Adam Butler Biomathematics & Statistics Scotland, JCMB, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK

Christopher M. Clark US EPA, Washington DC, USA

Emmanuel Corket UMR BioGeco Université Bordeaux 1, Talence, France

B. Jack Cosby Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Centre Wales, Bangor, Gwynedd, United Kingdom

Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA

xiv Contributors

Chris J. Curtis School of Geography, Archaeology and Environmental Studies, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa

Wim de Vries Alterra, Wageningen University and Research Centre, Wageningen, The Netherlands

Heleen A. de Wit Norwegian Institute for Water Research, Oslo, Norway

Hugo Denier van der Gon Climate, Air and Sustainability, TNO, Utrecht, The Netherlands

Robin L. Dennis US EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA

Thomas Dirnböck Environment Agency Austria, Vienna, Austria

Charles T. Driscoll Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Syracuse University, Syracuse, NY, USA

Lei Duan School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing, P. R. China

Bridget Emmett Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Centre Wales, Bangor, UK

Chris D. Evans Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Environment Centre Wales, Bangor, UK

Mark E. Fenn USDA Forest Service, Riverside, CA, USA

Jens Fölster Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden

Martin Forsius Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Helsinki, Finland

Noémie Gaudio Université de Toulouse; INP, UPS; EcoLab (Laboratoire Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement), ENSAT, Castanet Tolosan, France

CNRS, EcoLab, Castanet Tolosan, France

Thierry Gauquelin IMBE, Aix-Marseille University, Provence, France

Jean-Claude Gégout AgroParisTech, UMR 1092 INRA-AgroParistech, Laboratoire d’Etude des Ressources Forêt-Bois (LERFoB), Nancy, France

Linda H. Geiser USDA Forest Service, Corvallis, OR, USA

Frank S. Gilliam Marshall University, Huntington, WV, USA

Christine L. Goodale Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA

Tara L. Greaver US EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA

Jan E. Groenenberg Alterra, Wageningen University and Research Centre, Wageningen, The Netherlands

Jane Hall Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Centre Wales, Bangor, UK

xvContributors

Sharon J. Hall Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA

Jiming Hao School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing, P. R. China

Peter A. Henrys Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster, UK

Jean-Paul Hettelingh Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), RIVM, Bilthoven, The Netherlands

Ilia Ilyin EMEP-Meteorological Synthesizing Centre East, Moscow, Russia

Dean Jeffries Environment Canada, Burlington, ON, Canada

Johannes Kros Alterra, Wageningen University and Research Centre, Wageningen, The Netherlands

Daniel Kurz EKG Geo-Science, Bern, Switzerland

Thorjørn Larssen Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA), Oslo, Norway

Anne-Christine Le Gall LRTAP-Task Force Modelling and Mapping, INERIS, Verneuil-en-Halatte, France

Sophie Leguédois Université de Toulouse; INP, UPS; EcoLab (Laboratoire Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement), ENSAT, Castanet Tolosan, France

CNRS, EcoLab, Castanet Tolosan, France

Erik A. Lilleskov USDA Forest Service, Houghton, MI, USA

Lingli Liu US EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA

Stephen Lofts Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Bailrigg, Lancaster, UK

Espen Lund Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA), Oslo, Norway

Jason A. Lynch US EPA, Washington DC, USA

Rob Maas LRTAP-Task Force Integrated Assessment Modelling, RIVM, Bilthoven, The Netherlands

Arnaud Mansat Université de Toulouse; INP, UPS; EcoLab (Laboratoire Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement), ENSAT, Castanet Tolosan, France

CNRS, EcoLab, Castanet Tolosan, France

Thomas Meixner Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA

Filip Moldan IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, Göteborg, Sweden

xvi

Janet P. Mol-Dijkstra Alterra, Wageningen University and Research Centre, Wageningen, The Netherlands

Knute J. Nadelhoffer University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA

Bengt Nihlgård Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Lund, Lund, Sweden

Annika Nordin Umeå Plant Science Centre, Department of Forest Genetics and Plant Physiology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Umeå, Sweden

Carole Obeidy Université de Toulouse; INP, UPS; EcoLab (Laboratoire Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement), ENSAT, Castanet Tolosan, France

CNRS, EcoLab, Castanet Tolosan, France

Linda H. Pardo USDA Forest Service, Burlington, VT, USA

Jean-Paul Party Sol-Conseil, Strasbourg, France

Tomasz Pecka Institute of Environmental Protection—National Research Institute, Warsaw, Poland

Steven J. Perakis US Geological Survey, Corvallis, OR, USA

Maximilian Posch Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), RIVM, Bilthoven, The Netherlands

Anne Probst Université de Toulouse; INP, UPS; EcoLab (Laboratoire Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement), ENSAT, Castanet Tolosan, France

CNRS, EcoLab, Castanet Tolosan, France

Leela E. Rao Department of Environmental Science and Center for Conservation Biology, University of California, Riverside, CA, USA

Gert Jan Reinds Alterra, Wageningen University and Research Centre, Wageningen, The Netherlands

Molly J. Robin-Abbott USDA Forest Service, Burlington, VT, USA

Ed C. Rowe Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Centre Wales, Bangor, UK

Thomas Scheuschner OEKO-DATA Strausberg, Strausberg, Germany

Angela Schlutow OEKO-DATA Strausberg, Strausberg, Germany

Kirsten Schütz Institute for Applied Plant Biology, Schönenbuch, Switzerland

Gudrun Schütze Umweltbundesamt, Dessau, Germany

Laura Shotbolt Geography Department, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK

Contributors

xvii

Jaap Slootweg Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), RIVM, Bilthoven, The Netherlands

Simon M. Smart Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster, UK

Carly J. Stevens Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK

John L. Stoddard US EPA, Corvallis, OR, USA

Joachim Strengbom Department of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden

Timothy J. Sullivan E&S Environmental Chemistry, Corvallis, OR, USA

Harald U. Sverdrup Department of Chemical Engineering, Lund University, Lund, Sweden

Industrial Engineering, University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland

Edward Tipping Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Bailrigg, Lancaster, UK

Hilde Tomassen B-Ware Research Centre, Radboud University Nijmegen, Nijmegen, The Netherlands

Oleg Travnikov EMEP-Meteorological Synthesizing Centre East, Moscow, Russia

Leon van den Berg B-Ware Research Centre, Radboud University Nijmegen, Nijmegen, The Netherlands

Aquatic Ecology and Environmental Biology, Radboud University Nijmegen, Nijmegen, The Netherlands

Han F. van Dobben Alterra, Wageningen University and Research Centre, Wageningen, The Netherlands

Arjen van Hinsberg Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), Bilthoven, The Netherlands

G. W. Wieger Wamelink Alterra, Wageningen University and Research Centre, Wageningen, The Netherlands

Kathleen C. Weathers Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, NY, USA

Maaike Weijters B-Ware Research Centre, Radboud University Nijmegen, Nijmegen, The Netherlands

Henricus J.J. Wieggers Alterra, Wageningen University and Research Centre, Wageningen, The Netherlands

Contributors

xviii

Richard F. Wright Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA), Oslo, Norway

Fengming Yuan Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, USA

Yu Zhao School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing, P. R. China

Qingtao Zhou Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Syracuse University, Syracuse, NY, USA

Contributors

xix

List of Abbreviations

AAE Average Accumulated ExceedanceADI Acceptable Daily IntakeAGH scenario Above-Ground Harvesting scenarioALARA As Low As Reasonably AchievableAlterra Research Centre at Wageningen University (The Netherlands)ALTM Adirondack Long-Term MonitoringAMF Arbuscular Mycorrhizal FungiANC Acid Neutralizing Capacity (in surface waters)AOT40 Accumulated hourly ozone concentration Over a Threshold of 40

ppbBAU scenario Business As Usual scenarioBc Base cations (Ca+Mg+K)BC Base cations (Bc+Na)Bc/Al Base cation to Aluminium ratio (in soil solution)BERN Bioindication for Ecosystem Regeneration towards Natural con-

ditions modelBLM Biotic Ligand ModelC/N Carbon to Nitrogen ratioCa/Al Calcium to Aluminium ratioCBD Convention on Biological DiversityCC scenario Maximum change in future climate (but no change in future for-

est management) scenarioCCE Coordination Centre for Effects at RIVM (The Netherlands); Pro-

gramme Centre of the ICP M&MCCLU scenario Maximum change in future climate, maximum utilisation of for-

ests scenarioCEC Cation Exchange Capacity (of a soil)CEH Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (United Kingdom)CHUM-AM CHemistry of the Uplands Model-Annual Metals modelCIS Commonwealth of Independent StatesCL Critical Load (plural: CLs)CL(M) Critical Load of a (heavy) Metal

xx List of Abbreviations

CLA Critical Load of AcidityCLempN Empirical Critical Load of NitrogenCLE scenario Current LEgislation scenario of emission (and related deposi-

tion) reductionsCLF Critical Load Function (in the context of HM: ‘Critical Limit

Function’)CLmaxN Maximum Critical Load of NitrogenCLmaxS Maximum Critical Load of SulphurCLminN Minimum Critical Load of NitrogenCLnutN Critical Load of nutrient NitrogenCLRTAP see LRTAP ConventionCMAQ Community Multiscale Air Quality modelCOD Chemical Oxygen DemandCORINE CoORdination of INformation on the Environment of the EUDayCent Daily Century modelDDT Damage Delay TimeDECOMP Model of litter DECOMPosition (part of ForSAFE)DFP Distribution Function of the Possibility (of the occurrence of a

plant species)DM Dynamic Model(ling)DOC Dissolved Organic CarbonDOM Dissolved Organic MatterDPSIR Driving forces, Pressures, State, Impact, Response integrated

assessmentD-R Dose-ResponseEC European CommissionECHAM/OPYC3 A model of general circulation of atmosphere and oceanECLAIRE Effects of CLimate change on Air pollution Impacts and

Response strategies for European Ecosystems (EU Framework Programme 7)

EEA European Environment AgencyEFI European Forest Institute (Finland)EFISCEN European Forest Information SCENarioEIA Environmental Impact AnalysisEMEP The European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (under

the LRTAP Convention)EMERGE European Mountain lake Ecosystems: Regionalisation, diaG-

nostic & socio-economic Evaluation (EU Framework Pro-gramme 5)

EMF EctoMycorrhizal FungiESQUAD European Soil & sea QUality due to Atmospheric Deposition

projectETD Enhanced Trickle Down modelEU European UnionEUgrow EUropean forest growth model

xxiList of Abbreviations

EUNIS EUropean Nature Information SystemEXMAN EXperimental MANipulation of forest ecosystemsFAB First-order Acidity Balance modelFI scenario (FIHM) Full Implementation (of the Aarhus HM protocol)FIAM Free Ion Activity ModelFOCUS FOcal Center Utility Study (USA)ForSAFE Integrated process-oriented forest model for long-term sus-

tainability assessmentsGAINS Greenhouse gas and Air pollution INteractions and Synergies

modelGBMOVE Dynamic model predicting plant species changesGP scenario Gothenburg Protocol emission reductions agreed under the

LRTAP ConventionHadAM3 Hadley Centre Atmospheric Model 3HM Heavy MetalIAM Integrated Assessment ModelIAP Institute for Applied Plant Physiology (Schönenbuch,

Switzerland)ICP International Cooperative Programme (under the LRTAP

Convention)ICP-F ICP on Assessment and Monitoring Air Pollution Effects on

ForestsICP-IM ICP on Integrated Monitoring of Air Pollution Effects on

EcosystemsICP-M&M ICP on Modelling and Mapping Critical Levels and Loads

and Air Pollution Effects, Risks and TrendsICP-V ICP on Assessment and Monitoring Effects of Air Pollution

on Natural Vegetation and CropsICP-W ICP on Assessment and Monitoring Effects of Air Pollution

on Rivers and LakesILWAS Integrated Lake/Watershed Acidification Study (USA)IMAGE Integrated Model to Assess the Global EnvironmentIPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeIPCC-AR4 Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCCIUCN International Union for the Conservation of NatureIVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute (Sweden)JRC Joint Research Centre of the European CommissionLevel II plots Intensive monitoring sites of the ICP-FLOEC Lowest Observed Effects ConcentrationLRTAP Long-range Transboundary Air PollutionLU scenario No change in future climate, maximum utilisation of the

forestMADOC Model of Acidity Dynamics and Organic CarbonMAGIC Model of Acidification of Groundwater In CatchmentsMEA Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

xxii List of Abbreviations

MELA Management oriented large scale forestry modelMFR scenario Maximum Feasible emission (or related deposition) Reduction

scenarioMOVE MOdel for terrestrial VEgetationMPC Maximum Permissible ConcentrationMPLS Mean Phreatic Level in SpringMSC-E Meteorological Synthesizing Centre-East of EMEP under the

LRTAP Convention (Moscow)MSC-W Meteorological Synthesizing Centre-West of EMEP under the

LRTAP Convention (Oslo)MultiMOVE A package of niche models for British vegetationNAPAP National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (USA)Natura 2000 Network of EU nature protection areas established under the

1992 habitats directiveNEC National Emission Ceiling directive of the EUNEG/ECP New England Governors and Eastern Canadian PremiersNFC National Focal Centre (of the ICP-M&M)NIJOS Norwegian Institute for Soil and Forest InventoryNITREX NITRogen saturation EXperimentNOEC No Observed Effect ConcentrationNRCS Natural Resources Conservation Service (USA)NTM Natuur Technisch Model ('Nature Technical Model' in Dutch)NUCSAM NUtrient Cycling and Soil Acidification ModelOECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and DevelopmentORCHESTRA Objects Representing CHEmical Speciation and TRAnsport: an

object-oriented framework for implementing chemical equilib-rium models

PELCOM Pan-European Land COver MonitoringPLA Projected Leaf AreaPNEC Predicted No Effect ConcentrationPnET-BGC Photosynthesis net and EvapoTranspiration-BioGeoChemistryPOC Probability of OCcurrencePODY Phytotoxic Ozone Dose above a threshold of Y nmol m−2 s–1

PROFILE Steady-state soil chemistry model (including weathering)PROPS PRobability of Occurrence of Plant Species modelPULSE A soil hydrology modelRAD Reactive Airways DiseasesRAINS Regional Acidification INformation and Simulation modelRDT Recovery Delay TimeRENECOFOR National network of forest health survey by the National Forest

Office (France)RESAM REgional Soil Acidification ModelRIVM National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (The

Netherlands)RMCC Research and Monitoring Coordinating Committee (Canada)

xxiiiList of Abbreviations

SAFE Soil Acidification in Forest Ecosystems modelSBH scenario Stems plus Branches Harvesting scenarioSDMM Simple Dynamic Model for MetalsSEI Stockholm Environment InstituteSLU Swedish University of Agricultural SciencesSMART Simulation Model for Acidification's Regional TrendsSMB Simple Mass Balance modelSOH scenario Stem Only Harvesting scenarioSOM Soil Organic MatterSOMO35 Sum Of Maximum daily 8-hour average O3 levels above 35 ppbSSD Species Sensitivities DistributionSSMB Steady-State Mass Balance modelSSWC Steady-State Water Chemistry modelSUMO Model for vegetation forecastSYKE Finnish Environment InstituteTEEB The Economics of Ecosystems and BiodiversityTFH Task Force on Health under the LRTAP ConventionTL Target LoadTMDL Total Maximum Daily LoadTOC Total Organic CarbonTSAP Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution of the European UnionUBA Umweltbundesamt (Federal Environmental Agency, Germany)UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural OrganizationUSDA United States Department of AgricultureUS-EPA United States Environmental Protection AgencyUSFS United States Forest ServiceVEG (or Veg) Model for ground vegetationVSD (VSD+) Very Simple Dynamic model (plus)WGE Working Group on Effects under the LRTAP ConventionWHAM Windermere Humic Aqueous ModelWHO World Health OrganisationWTH scenario Whole Tree Harvesting scenario

xxv

About the Editors

Wim de Vries (1959) is a senior research scientist at Alterra, part of Wageningen University and Research Centre. He is also professor at the Environmental Systems Analysis Group of Wageningen University, where he holds the chair “Integrated nitrogen impact modelling”.

He holds both a Ph.D. (cum laude) and MSc. in Soil Chemistry at Wageningen University. From 1982–1983 he worked at the South Australian Department of Agriculture, Adelaide, South Australia, where he in-vestigated the effects of land use changes on the salin-ity of a drinking water reservoir. He then moved to the Netherlands Soil Survey Institute (1983–1988) where he studied soil acidification in response to changed ni-

trogen and sulphur inputs. From 1989–1999 he worked at the DLO-Winand Staring Centre, mainly concentrating on critical loads of nitrogen, acidity and heavy metals in view of effects on terrestrial ecosystems. Since 2000, he works at Alterra. He has been project leader of numerous multi-partner national and international projects on integrated assessment of agricultural management on air, soil and water quality, on critical loads of nitrogen, acidity and metals on terrestrial ecosystems and on impacts of air quality and climate change on ecosystem services.

His research is currently organized around impacts of the changes in land man-agement, air quality and climate on soil and water quality, biodiversity, forest growth and carbon sequestration. His specific expertise is related to the develop-ment, validation and application of soil models at various scales.

Alterra Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands

xxvi About the Editors

Jean-Paul Hettelingh (Amsterdam, 1954) directs the Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE) located at the Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) since 1990. With his CCE colleagues he collaborates with a European network of scientific and policy institutions under the LRTAP Convention of the United Nations (UNECE) to sup-port assessments of ecosystem effects of European air pollution policies.

His academic background is econometrician (MSc.) and he holds a Ph.D. in economics at the Free Univer-sity (Amsterdam) with a focus on uncertainty in the

modelling of regional environmental systems. He started with research positions in the field of integrated assessment modelling (1978–1985) at the Institute for Environmental Studies at the Free University. He then (1986–1989) moved to the International Institute for Systems Analysis (IIASA, Austria) to contribute to the development of the Regional Acidification, Information and Simulation (RAINS) model. He performed parts of his Ph.D. work at IIASA, and at the Environmen-tal Sciences Division of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA). Since 1989 he joined RIVM from where he held a part time professorship in environmetrics (1997–2002) at the Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML) at Leiden University (Leiden, The Netherlands).

His research focus is on impact analysis in broad scale integrated assessment models. Results are published from work under the Asian Development Bank, the World Bank, the UNECE, the European Environment Agency and the European Union.

RIVM—Coordination Centre for Effects, Bilthoven, The Netherlands

xxviiAbout the Editors

Maximilian Posch (Vienna, 1953) is a senior re-searcher at the Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE) located at the Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM). The CCE is the data and modelling centre of the ICP Modelling & Mapping un-der the UNECE LRTAP Convention.

He holds a Ph.D. in Physics and a MSc. in Math-ematics from the Technical University of Vienna. From 1981–1989 he worked at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Laxenburg (Aus-tria), first on the minimisation of air pollution by district heating, funded by the City of Vienna, and then on the design and development of the integrated assessment

model of acidification in Europe (the RAINS/GAINS model). During 1987–1989 he also worked for the Austrian Institute of Technology (formerly: Austrian Research Centers), finishing his Ph.D. in Theoretical Physics. From 1990–1994 he worked at the Finnish Water and Environment Research Institute (now: Finnish Environment Institute, SYKE) in Helsinki on the environmental impacts of acid deposition and agricultural practices. There he also participated in many collaborative projects funded by the Nordic Council of Ministers, developing the critical load methodol-ogy and mapping in the Nordic countries. Since 1995 he works at the RIVM.

His research focuses on developing and implementing tools and models deal-ing with the effects of air pollutants and climate change on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems on a site and regional scale, and the transfer of that knowledge to policy making.

RIVM—Coordination Centre for Effects, Bilthoven, The Netherlands