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Personal - EducationEducation: Ph.D. in Botany with Applied Plant
Physiology as a major
Research areas: Environmental plant physiology including global change, crop modeling, remote sensing.
Years at MSU: 30
Taught the course since: 2000
Trends That Shape Our Future
Trends, Signs and Signatures from the EarthPast, Present and Future World Population
Trends, Signs and Signatures from the EarthPresent and Future World Population Trends
Popu
latio
n, m
illion
s
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
300020152050
AsiaOceania
(less China and India)
China India Africa Europe LatinAmerica
NorthAmerica
2206
1395
1620
2393
709782
446
1687
1371 12881186
738634
358
31% 1.7% 26% 102%
-4% 23% 25%
Trends, Signs and Signatures from the EarthMaize - Production and Yield – Selected Countries
USA
Chi
na
Braz
il
Mex
ico
Fran
ce
Indi
a
Rom
ania
Arge
ntin
a
Indo
nesi
a
Nig
eria
Sout
h Af
rica
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n ar
ea, %
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n, %
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
AreaProduction
Year 2004, Area = 147.02 Mha, Production = 721.4 MMtUSA, China and Brazil = 67% of production and 46% of the area
Trends, Signs and Signatures from the EarthMaize - Production and Yield – Selected Countries
Year
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Mai
ze y
ield
, kg
ha-1
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
USA: 156% @ 114 kg yr-1
China: 335% @ 100 kg yr-1
USA
China
Year
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n, M
Mt
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
USA
China
Yield Production
Brazil: 157% @ 47 kg yr-1
BrazilBrazil
USA: 226% @ 3.90 MMt yr-1
China: 631% @ 2.77 MMt yr-1
Brazil: 364% @ 0.73 MMt yr-1
P= 67%, and A= 46%
Trends, Signs and Signatures from the EarthWheat - Production and Yield – Selected Countries
Chi
na
Indi
a
USA
Rus
sian
Fed
.
Fran
ce
Ger
man
y
Can
ada
Aust
ralia
Turk
ey
Ukr
aine
Paki
stan
Arge
ntin
a
Kaza
khst
an
Whe
at p
rodu
ctio
n ar
ea, %
0
5
10
15
20
Whe
at p
rodu
ctio
n, %
0
5
10
15
20
AreaProduction
Year 2004 Year 2004, Area = 215.8 Mha, Production = 627.1 MMt
Trends, Signs and Signatures from the EarthWheat - Production and Yield – Selected Countries
Year
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Whe
at y
ield
, kg
ha-1
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
China: 651% @ 88kg yr-1
India: 210% @ 50 kg yr-1 China
USA
India
Year
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Whe
at p
rodu
ctio
n, M
Mt
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
China
USA
India
Yield Production
USA: 80% @ 26 kg yr-1China: 539% @ 2.42 MMt yr-1
India: 555% @ 0.69 MMt yr-1
USA: 76% @ 1.62 MMt yr-1
Trends, Signs and Signatures from the EarthRate of improvement in wheat yield
per unit land area is declining
Stephen Long, CSA News, 2014
Trends, Signs and Signatures from the EarthRice - Production and Yield – Selected Countries
USA
Japa
n
Braz
il
Philip
pine
s
Mya
nmar
Thai
land
Viet
nam
Bang
lade
sh
Indo
nesi
a
Indi
a
Chi
na
Ric
e pr
oduc
tion
area
, %
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Ric
e pr
oduc
tion,
%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
AreaProduction
Year 2004, Area = 151.3 Mha, Production = 605.8 MMt
Year
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Ric
e yi
eld,
kg
ha-1
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
China: 205% @ 102 kg yr-1
India: 90% @ 42 kg yr-1Indonesia: 156% @ 77 kg yr-1
China
Indonesia
India
Year
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Ric
e pr
oduc
tion,
MM
t
0
50
100
150
200
250
Indonesia: 132% @ 1.12 MMt yr-1India: 339% @ 2.15 MMt yr-1China: 232% @ 2.98 MMt yr-1
China
Indonesia
India
Yield Production
Trends, Signs and Signatures from the EarthRice - Production and Yield – Selected Countries
P= 60%, and A= 55%
Trends, Signs and Signatures from the EarthSoybean - Production and Yield – Selected Countries
USA
Braz
il
Arge
ntin
a
Chi
na
Indi
a
Para
guay
Can
ada
Boliv
ia
Indo
nesi
a
Italy
Soyb
ean
prod
uctio
n ar
ea, M
ha
0
20
40
60
80
100
Soyb
ean
prod
uctio
n, M
Mt
0
20
40
60
80
100AreaProduction
Year 2004, Area = 91.44 Mha, Production = 204.3 MMt
Trends, Signs and Signatures from the EarthSoybean - Production and Yield – Selected Countries
Year
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Soyb
ean
yiel
d, k
g ha
-1
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
USA: 69% @ 26kg yr-1
China: 168% @ 26 kg yr-1
Brazil
USA
Year
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Soyb
ean
prod
uctio
n, M
Mt
0
25
50
75
100
USA
Brazil
Yield
Brazil: 103% @ 37 kg yr-1
China
China
USA: 364% @ 1.35 MMt yr-1
China: 183% @ 0.24 MMt yr-1
Production
Brazil: @ 0.99 MMt yr-1
Trends, Signs and Signatures from the EarthCotton - Production and Yield – Selected Countries
Year
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Seed
cot
ton
yiel
d, k
g ha
-1
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
China: 409% @ 58 kg yr-1
India: 141% @ kg yr-1USA: 72% @ 16 kg yr-1
China
USA
India
Year
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Cot
ton
prod
uctio
n, M
Mt
0
5
10
15
20
25
USA: 45% @ 0.09 MMt yr-1
India: 172% @ 0.08 MMt yr-1
China: 649% @ 0.29 MMt yr-1
China
USA
India
Yield Production
Trends, Signs and Signatures from the EarthGlobal Major Foods – Meat and Poultry Production
Year1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Mea
t and
Pou
ltry
prod
uctio
n tre
nds,
1961
= 1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
101961 to 2007: Million t Poultry = 9 and 87Meat = 71 and 286
Poultry
Meat
Meat and Poultry Production Meat and Poultry ProductionRelative Trends
Year
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Mea
t and
Pou
ltry
prod
uctio
n, m
illion
t
0
50
100
150
200
250
300MeatPoultry
Trends, Signs and Signatures from the EarthGlobal Major Foods – Per Capita Consumption
Year1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Con
sum
tion,
lb/p
erso
n
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Selected fruits = 1.95 lb/year
Vegetables = 3.21 lb/year
Flour and Cereals = 2.70 lb/year
Meat and Poultry = 0.65 lb/year
Cropland area Irrigated area Salinized area
----------------------------- Mha --------------------------------
China 124.0 54.4 (22%) 7-8 (14%)
India 161.8 54.8 (31%) 10-30 (50%)
USA 177.0 22.4 (13%) 4.5 -6 (15%)
USSR 204.1 19.9 (2%) 2.5-4.5 (21%)
World 1364.2 271.7 (21%) 62-82 (37%)
Percentage change from Year 1985 to 2000
S.G. Pritchard and J. S. Amthor, 2005
Trends, Signs and Signatures from the EarthManagement Practices – Cropland area, Irrigation & Salinization
Whatever We do, It will Cost Us
Year1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Soil
orga
nic
carb
on (%
)
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0Morrow plots: East-central Illinois
Corn-oats-hay rotationCorn-oats (1885-1953), Corn-soybeans (1954-1988)Continuous corn
Year1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980
Soil
orga
nic
carb
on (%
)
0
1
2
3
4
Wagner, (1989)to 4% in 1888Estimated
Sanborn Field: Central Missouri
Wheat, 6 Tons Manure/yearCorn, 6 Tons Manure/yearContinuous WheatContinuous Corn
Crop rotations Fertility management
Reicosky et al. 2000
Trends, Signs and Signatures from the EarthManagement Practices – Whatever We do, It will Cost Us
Trends, Signs and Signatures from the EarthPopulation, cereal yield, arable and irrigated area, N use
Year1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Rel
ativ
e va
luse
s (1
961=
1)
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5Cereal yieldArable land areaIrrigated land areaPopulationFertilizer use
2000 values are:Cereal yield = 2.25Arable area = 1.09Irrigated area = 1.98Population = 1.97Fertilizer use = 4.33
Ray et al., 2013, PLOSOne
• Yield has to be doubled by 2050 to meet the demands of rising population with higher earning capacity, diet shifts, and increasing biofuels consumption.
• Based on past trends, projected rate of yield increase was about 1.2% per year, but we need about 2.4% per year to double the current yields for major cereal crops including rice.
1.6% 1.0%0.9%1.3%
Trends, Signs and Signatures from the EarthYield Trends of Major Crops – Past and Future
Feeding 10 Billion Mouths
We must develop the capacity to feed 10 billion people within in the next 35 to 85 years.
• The average world current cereal yield is about 3.89 tons per ha for about 7.2 billion people (year 2014).
• We need about 5.24 tons per ha for 9.7 billion (2050; 35 % more than the current), and 5.94 tons per ha for 11 billion (2100; 53% more than the current).
Routes to Greater Food Production
• Increase in the area of land under cultivation.
• Increase in the number of crops per hectare per year(mostly practiced in tropics, requires access to irrigation, high input use, short season cultivars, and others such as labor, pest and disease control may be a problem).
• Displacement of lower yielding crops by higher yielding ones (done since the dawn of domestication).
• Efficiency of crop production in terms of:Per unit of land area (yield per ha)Per unit of timePer unit of inputs such as fertilizers, water and labor etc.
Trends, Constraints, Environmental Stresses and Food Production
Irrigation Practices Food and Energy Debate
Percent increase in crop yield over decades
Cropping systems and soil health
Global Present and Past Trends Per Capita Consumption
Food for Animal systems
Here comes the greatest challenge of our time,
The Global Climate Change
• Greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O etc.)
• Temperatures
• Glaciers
• Oceans and sea-levels
• Precipitation patterns and drought intensities
• Stratospheric ozone and ground-level UV-B radiations
• Frequency of extreme events
Trends, Signs and Signatures from the EarthWhat is Expected in the Future Climate?
Climate Change Footprint
Arctic sea ice reaches its annual minimum in September. The satellite images
above show September Arctic sea ice in 1935-44 and 2005-2014.
Trends, Signs and Signatures from the EarthAtmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration
CFCs are commonly used as refrigerants, solvents, and foam blowing agents. The most common CFCs are CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113, CFC-114, and CFC-115.
Global Warming and the Ozone Story
Global Warming Process Ozone Depleting Process
Trends, Signs and Signatures from the EarthPast and Current Levels in GHG Concentrations, Rates of
Change and Atmospheric Lifetime
Period CO2 Methane Nitrous oxide
CFC-11 HFC-23 Perfluro-methane
Pre-industrial concentration
(1850)
about 280 ppm
about 700ppb
about 270 ppb
0 0 40ppt
Current Concentration
in 2008
386ppm
1857ppb
321ppb
244ppt
18ppt
74ppt
Rate of change 1.43ppm/yr
7.0 ppb/yr
0.8ppb/yr
-1.4ppt/yr
0.55 ppt/yr
1 ppt/yr
Atmospheric lifetime
5 to 200
years
12 years
114years
45years
260Years
>50,000 years
Global warming gases Ozone depleting chemicals
Trends, Signs and Signatures from the EarthFuture trends in global carbon dioxide concentration and associated climate change, if no interventions are made
Climate variable 2025 2050 2100
Carbon dioxide concentration
405-460 ppm
445-640 ppm
720-1020 ppm
Global mean temperature change from the year 1990
0.4-1.1oC
0.8-2.6oC
2.4-6.4oC
Global mean sea-level rise from the year 1990
3-14cm
5-32cm
26-59cm
The graph shows the observed and projected change in percentage of very warm nights from the 1950-1990 average in the United States. Under the lower emissions scenarios, the percentage of very warm nights is projected to increase about 20% by 2100. Under the higher emissions scenario it is projected to increase by about 40%. The shaded areas show the likely ranges while the lines show the central projections from a set of climate models. The projections appear smooth because they show the calculated average of many models.
Climate change footprintChanges in night time temperature
Trends, Signs and Signatures from the EarthIn a production environment, no two seasons are equal
Day of the year0 60 120 180 240 300 360
Tem
pera
ture
, °F
20
40
60
80
100
Avg. T20112005
Day of the Year0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Tem
pera
ture
, °C
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Phoenix, AZ, USA
Stoneville, MS, USA
MarosIndonesia
Hyderabad, India
Trends, Signs and Signatures from the EarthSpatial and temporal trends in climate
Trends, Signs and Signatures from the EarthPresent and Projected Temperature Changes
Day of the year0 60 120 180 240 300 360
Tem
pera
ture
, oC
0
10
20
30
40
50
HyderabadStoneville, MSStoneville, MS + Projected climateHyderabad + Projected climateOptimum temperature for Rice
• As human population expands and demand upon natural resources increases, the need to manage the environments in which people live becomes more important, but also more difficult.
• Climate change has no boundaries, and can’t be viewed in isolation.
• We should consider other stresses on food production systems such as population dynamics, habitat destruction and fragmentation, land-use changes, biodiversity, land and water management and invasive species dominance.
Climate Change and Crop ProductivitySome Considerations
• Land and water management is especially critical as the use of upstream watersheds can drastically affect large numbers of people living in downstream watersheds.
• The current and projected changes in climate are unprecedented, and the ecosystems including managed ecosystems such as agriculture may not cope with the changes projected in climate.
• An integrated approach that stresses both the importance of participatory planning and the institutional and technical constraints and opportunities is therefore necessary.
Climate Change and Crop ProductivitySome Considerations
Environmental Stresses and Plant Growing Conditions
Environmental and Cultural Factors Limiting Potential Yields
Atmospheric carbon dioxide Solar radiation Temperature (including extremes) Water (irrigation, rainfall and flooding) Wind Nutrients (N, P, K, and other nutrients) Others, Ultra-violet radiation, ozone etc., Growth regulators (such as PIX)
Limitation Area of world soil subject to limitation (%)
Drought 27.9
Shallow soil 24.2
Mineral excess or deficiency 22.5
Flooding 12.2
Miscellaneous 3.1
None 10.1
Total 100
Temperature 14.8 (over laps with other stresses)
Area of Total World Land Surface Subject to Environmental Limitations of Various Types
Yield, kg ha-1 Physiochemical
Major US Crops – Record yield, average yield and losses due to various factors
Physiochemical = Record yield – (average yield + disease loss + insect loss + weed loss)
Environmental Stresses and Crop ProductivityFactors Affecting Yields of Major US Crops
Environmental Plant PhysiologyObjectives
• The objectives of this course are to learn plant responses to abiotic stresses, particularly plant growth and development, and to learn modeling methodologies on how to integrate those plant processes under multiple stress conditions.
• At the end, the students are expected to:
understand individual as well as interactive abiotic stress effects on photosynthesis, respiration, growth, development and finally yield.
understand on how to develop methodologies to integrate multiple stress factor effects on various plant/canopy processes.
Environmental Plant Physiology
• Atmospheric carbon dioxide
• Solar radiation
• Temperature (Including extremes)
• Water (rainfall, flooding, and irrigation)
• Wind
• Nutrients
• Other factors such as ozone
• Plant growth regulators
• The facilities and tools
Chapter 1:
Environmental Plant Physiology
Photosynthesis and the environment• The Environmental productivity index (EPI)
concept.
• The photosynthesis - Species variability.
• Photosynthesis and aging process.
• Respiration.
Chapter 2:
Environmental Plant Physiology
Crop growth and development
• Phenology
• Growth of various organs and whole plants.
• The concept of environmental productivity index in quantifying crop growth and development in response to the environment.
Chapter 3:
Environmental Plant Physiology
Scaling of processes from leaves to whole plant, canopies or ecosystems.
Chapter 4:
Special topics include:• Plant growth regulators – PIX.
• Remote sensing and environmental plant physiology.
Chapter 5:
Environmental Plant PhysiologyIntroduction
Suggested reading:• Environmental Plant Physiology. 2016. N. Willey, New York, NY.
390p.• Feeding the Ten Billion-Plants and Population Growth- 1998, L. T.
Evans, Chapter 12, pages 195-225.• Crop Science Progress and Prospects- 2000, edited by J.
Nosberger, H. H. Geiger and P. C. Struik, Chapter 3, Crop Science research to assure food security by K.G. Cassman, pages, 33-51.
• Crop Responses to Environment –2001, A. E. Hall. Chapter 1, Introduction, pages 1-7.
• Meeting cereal demand while protecting natural resources and improving environmental quality, KG Cassman, A. Dobermann, DT Walters and H. Yang, Annual Review of Environmental Resources, 2003, 28:315-358.
