Environmental and Societal Impacts GroupEmergency Management Higher Education Conference

Seth McGinnis

http://www.esig.ucar.edu

 

1. Use and Value of Weather and Climate Information for Decision Making

2. The Science of Weather and Climate Impact Assessment

3. Earth System Education: Frameworks and Informatics

ESIG’s Major Research Themes

Flood Damage in the United States

• ESIG and CU scientists evaluated NWS flood damage estimates from 1926-2000 and developed guidelines for using the data.

• The character of damaging floods varies greatly from region to region.

http://www.flooddamagedata.org/

Analysis with extreme value theory suggests that storms with high damage are not as unusual as conventional analyses would indicate

Anticipating Hurricane Damages

Statistical tools and tutorial available at:

http://www.esig.ucar.edu/extremevalues/extreme.html

Climate-Related Flashpoints

A system for categorizing dangerous situations and anticipating characteristics that lead to disaster.

http://www.esig.ucar.edu/flash

1998-2002 precipitation anomalies

98 99 00 01 02

+20

-20

Southwest Central Asia

Wildfire Initiative

Program development with a focus on societal risk assessment tools, risk communication, and education. (In progress)

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/projects/wfc/

Superstorm ’93 Project

The 1993 East Coast extreme snow event was well forecast, but the impact was still extreme. The goal of the Superstorm’93 Project is to understand why.

Disaster Dynamics

• Educational goals– Decision making under

uncertainty– Complex systems– Understanding design decisions– Fostering collaboration– Significance of the recovery

phase

• Approach - family of educational role-playing simulation games

– Integrated face to face and computer tools

– Engagement of gaming

Player Interactions

Supporting InformationSimulations/Models

http://swiki.esig.ucar.edu/dd

Current Prototype

• A computer-assisted board game (not a simulation)

• Theme: urban development with natural hazard

• Players take on roles with different goals

• Interaction is oriented towards negotiation and evaluation

• Facilitator support: record of play, system control

Example of Play

• Evaluation– data views, analysis, and triggered information

• Proposal cards• Polling and Negotiation• Voting• Update

– computer model of growth• Random events

– dilemmas and disasters• Special “Recovery Turn”

4 to 6 players

45 minute block of play

We need help!

• How much class time would you be willing to dedicate to playing a game like this?

• Would you use it during lecture or a lab? • Would it be useful for the game to be available outside of

class?• What kind of computer resources are typically available to

you and your students? • In large classes, would you rather break the class up into

multiple independent games, or have the players form teams?

• What questions do you want this game to address? • Is there any specific content (e.g., flooding) you want to

see included? • What kinds of support materials for the instructor do you

need? • Are you interested in collaborating or beta-testing?

Questions we need answers to:

http://swiki.esig.ucar.edu/dd/questionnaire