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8/3/2019 Environmenta & Technology Futures
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Andrew Robinson
March 8 2011
Environment & Technology Futures
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Economic Environment &
Global Context
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Canadas Endogenous Barriers to Increasing
Innovative Products & Services as a
proportion of National Output
Efficient adaptation strategy that favours
commodity production
Market structure that discourages competition
based on technology leadership
Competition policy that allows market leaders to
set the innovation pace.
Government programs designed for S&T ratherthan innovation policy.
(Source: Stanley, Cardwells Law)
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Two Approaches to Completing
Stimulus Summary Track Templates Top-Down (Harder) Working with little
detailed data right to the answer
Produce a time track mindmap like my examplefor Virtualisation- if you dont have mindmap--
use a word hierarchy or paper and shoot with
camera
Converge the key productised events into thestimulus summary matrix [this is the very hard
step]
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Two Approaches to Completing
Summary Template Bottom-Up (Easier) More Detail to Less
Complete a spreadsheet as was done for Health,
Medical Bio by Marcus Converge Your Key event track up into the
summary matrix
For the intensive info analytic enthusiasts
do both:) and see how the results compare?
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Soldier Systems (IC) Technology Readiness Level
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See Attached Soldier Systems Examples for
Emerging Technologies and Power Tracks
Emerging Technologies- SSRM1-4.pdf
Power Related Technologies
SSP3.pdf Storage Battery Tech SSP4.pdf Management
SSP5.pdf Fuel Cells
We should be mapping only
technologies/environment events at a TRL8-9level for the 2017/2040 timepoints on each of
our stimulus summary matrices. I much prefer
use of the Cell Platform Commercialisation
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Cell Commercialisation Lifecycle
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Top -Down Path
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Virtual Tracks
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Massive infrastructure costs to migrate
etween 2011-2020 (5B estimate for
Government of Canada) forces
consolidation to global regional data
centres from national level for scale
eeded to be green.
After a brief period 2009-2010 of
roprietorisation of mobile phones, tablet,
aper, book readers and remote projectors
ecomestandardised globally.
3. Networks
IP4->IP6
WirelessBroadband
Relative importance (life cost) of
information storage has increased in
system cost due to growth. Willeverse between 2011-2020
2. Storage
VirtualHolographic
Quantum
Allows most workloads to be run,
scaled on most platforms independent
of operating system, hardware,
icroprocessor. Stove piped
application/service vendor lockins are
gone. Most code running is open
source, creative commons or no
ownership.
100% Production runs on
Virtual Platforms Nearly
infinite processing is
available very inexpensively
either locally or from
assive green regional data
and processing centres
90% All Production
Workloads are Virtual
Facilitates Proper Disater
Recovery/Business
Continuity in ever bigger
Data Centers
BI allows your own view
of global internet info for
40K in capital
Production moving from
dev/test into production
applications
1. Virtual
Processing
So What?204020202011Tech Domain
Advanced Software, Tools, Platforms & Ecosystems PresentationVirtualisation Andrew Robinson Top-Down Worked EXAMPLE
Suggested Max 5 slides 3 ideas per page bullet form text
(minimum text)
Moving from dev/test
eval production
applications
10-100MB BW to the
Mobile Phone in Lab
Mobile Smart
Paper/Micro
projectors with
integrated 100MBroadband access
Cyber
Warfare/Security
finally resolved by
road deployment
of Quantum basedIdentity,
Authentication &
Authorisation
Cyber Information
Security based onQuantum
Encryption,
Compression is
globally deployed
Resistance to
spending on
information
protection at Rest
& In transit
declines: Cyber
Warfare booms
Global discovery of
info and services isaciliated by specialise
agents, avatars now
ith personality traits-
sentience
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Bottom-Up Path
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25 50 75 100
Probability of Occurrence
Track Event Description 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037
Healthcare Events(Probable ba sed on current/anticipated knowledge)
Multidimensional Dynamic Displays. Real time holograms for surgery, patient interaction,
training x
Image Gloves. Bare hand control x
V oi ce C on tr ol . Tr ac ki ng , r ec og ni ti on x
S mart Rooms, hom es. Whole body l ocati on sensi ng t o t reat pat i ents and t rain st af f x
Smart clothes . Neural interfaces. Bio-signal monitoring x
High performance medical robots. Intelligent, remotely programmable, teletherapy x
Smart micro probes xH os pi ta l P al mt op s fo r s y nc hr on ou s d ia gn os is a nd t he ra py x
Portable medical lasers that seal wounds x
Technology right next to clinical care and the patient Using biometrics, RFID, and barcode
to establish patient identity before treatment administration. Bedside clinical information
displays to keep patients engaged in their own care. Computer navigation x
Interoperable health information infrastructure enables data mining of medical records to
improve care at bedside and improve clinical trial efficiency. Examination of efficacy of
past treatment regimes and outcomes. Treatment recommendations.
The convergence of broadband penetration into homes and the emergence of more
sophisticated portable medical devices is creating an opportunity for harnessing innovative
technology to push the point of healthcare delivery to the home. Telemonitoring and v
Improved patient empowerment via mashup technologies. Treatment options, scheduling,
self treatmentAnti-fat and as soc iat ed diabetes drugs are available x
Targeted drug delivery
Acute spinal injuries are fully treatable x
Complete organ replacements grown from stem c ells
Bathrooms that monitor not just what we excrete but also analyze our skin color and tone
as we look in the mirror are just the beginning. Images and sensors could record
everything we eat and all medicines we take, providing far better analysis on the eff
Tooth regeneration is transforming dental care x
Physician selection of drug regimes based on physiological and biochemical profiles
Cancer, implants
Bone, tissue repair
Deafness is fully curable
Medical nanobots are being developed
Neuron digital interfaces with environment and computers
Robots and artificial intelligence will have manifold roles in healthcare, including avatar
doctors, exoskeletons for nurses, and automated surgery. As Ive written before, one of
t he m os t i mp or ta nt t oo ls wi ll b e e mo ti on al r ob ot s, t ha t c an d em on st ra te e mp x
Prediction of drug ADMET. Absorption, distribution, metabolism, excretion, toxicology
Designer food and nutrition programs
AIDS, cancer and a plethora of other diseases are becoming curableStem cell pharmacies are commonplace
New types of drugs based on human genome or structural genomics or biomimetics
Are electronic medical information and decision-making systems clinically reliable for
genetic information management? How will health professionals overcome the barriers to
implement data health management and evaluation systems that have family and cros
Life expectancy (in developed countries) continues to increase increases by two years
continuing to aggravate the existing aging of the population. The implications for
healthcare would include not just new treatments, but a massive increase in aged care
Populace expects fitness experiences that are customized for each persons age, gender,
location, spending power and personal preferences.
Virtual training and fitness first via the internet and then via implants
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2011
State of d
evelopm
ent
2017
prospe
cts
Inno
vatio
nmodel
2040
prospe
cts
Inno
vatio
nmodel
Cost-perfo
rmce
Track Event Description
Healthcare Events(Probable based on current/anticipated knowledge)
Multidimensional Dynamic Displays. Real time holograms for surgery, patient interaction,
training
Some capabilities.
Not yet in medical
domain
Displays available
and in regular use.
Patient interaction
initiated
Image Gloves. Bare hand control
Voice Control. Tracking, recognition
Smart Rooms, homes. Whole body location sensing to treat patients and train staff Programs initiated
Homes wired and in
testing in retirement
and managed care
facilities
Smart clothes. Neural interfaces. Bio-signal monitoring
Some technologies
ready. No integration Some field testing
High performance medical robots. Intelligent, remotely programmable, teletherapy
Some technologies
ready. No integration Some field testing
Smart micro probes
Some technologies
ready. No integration
Initial commercial
products envisioned
Hospital Palmtops for s ynchronous diagnosis and therapy
Some technologies
ready. No integration.
Not commercial
Leading hospitals
adopt
Portable medical lasers that seal wounds Prototypes
Leading hospitals
adopt
Technology right next to clinical care and the patient Using biometrics, RFID, and barcode
to establish patient identity before treatment administration. Bedside clinical information
displays to keep patients engaged in t heir own care. Computer navigation
Some technologies
ready. No integration
Leading hospitals
adopt
Interoperable health information infrastructure enables data mining of medical records to
improve care at bedside and improve clinical t rial efficiency. Examination of efficacy of
past treatment regimes and outcomes. Treatment recommendations.
Some algorithms.
Initial companies
started.
Hospitals and
provider integration
initiated
The convergence of broadband penetration into homes and the emergence of more
sophisticated portable medical devices is creating an opportunity for harnessing innovative
technology to push the point of healthcare delivery to the home. Telemonitoring and v
Some technologies
ready. No integration.
Not commercial
Homes wired and in
testing in retirement
and managed care
facilities
Improved patient empowerment via mashup technologies. Treatment options, scheduling,
self treatment
Some technologies
ready. No integration
Hospitals and
provider integration
initiated
Anti-fat and associated diabetes drugs are available
Awareness. Some
pharma products.
Clinical trials
underway
Targeted drug delivery
Some organ targeting
p os s ib le Ini t ia l c l in ic al t ri al s
Acute spinal injuries are fully treatable
Animal work
promising
Com plet e organ repl ac em ent s grown from s tem c el ls Ini ti at ed
Increased
acceptance and pay
per usage common
Bathrooms that monitor not just what we excrete but also analyze our skin color and tone
as we look in the mirror are just the beginning. Images and sensors could record
everything we eat and all medicines we take, providing far better analysis on the eff
Some technologies
ready. No integration
Managed care and
hospitals examine
potential
Tooth regeneration is transforming dental care
Clinical trials
envisioned
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bstracted
Summary
Matrix
2011
State of d
evelopm
ent
2017
prospe
cts
Inno
vatio
nmod
el
2040
prospe
cts
Track Event DescriptionHealthcare Events(Probable based on current/anticipated knowledge)
Multidimensional Dynamic Displays. Real time holograms for surgery, patient interaction,
training (eg. Image Gloves, bare hand control; V oice Control, t racking, recognition)
Some capabilities.
Not yet in medical
domain
Displays available and in
regular use. Patient
interaction initiated
new business opportunities and
improvements in technology
Robots and artificial intelligence will have manifold roles in healthcare, including avatar
doctors, exoskeletons for nurses, and automated surgery. Emotional robots, that can
demonstrate empathy and help patients in t heir recovery. High performance medi
Hospitals and provider
integration initiated
Smart clothes and ongoing (interactive) physiological monitoring.. Neural interfaces. Bio-
signal monitoring
Some t echnologies
ready. No integration Some field testing
Technological c hallenges and
functionality improvements t o
overcome bulk, use by first adopters
Neuron digital interfaces with environment and computers
Awareness. Some
academic progress.
Animal experimentation
advanced. Clinical trials
anticipated.
Advancement of technologies that
will / may be integrated.
Smart micro probes, Medical nanobots are being developed
Some t echnologies
ready. No integration
Animal experimentation
advanced. Clinical trials
anticipated.
new functionality enables an
infrastructure leaps
Hospital Palmtops for synchronous diagnosis and therapy
Some t echnologies
ready. No integration.
Initial commercial
applications Leading hospitals adopt
infrastructure in place to enable
communication
Clinical care Using biometrics to establish patient identity and background before
treatment administration.
Some t echnologies
ready. No integration Leading hospitals adopt
Bedside clinical information displays
to keep patients engaged in their
own care.
Clinical trial efficiency via prediction of drug ADMET. Absorption, distribution, metabolism,
excretion, toxicology
Some algorithms.
Initial companies
started.
Hospitals and provider
integration initiated
Technological c hallenges remain and
initial proof of cross species
agreement to be proven.
8/3/2019 Environmenta & Technology Futures
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Bottom-Up Health Stimulus Template
2011
State of d
evelopm
ent
2017
prospe
cts
Inno
vatio
nmod
el
2040
prospe
cts
Track Event DescriptionHealthcare Events(Probable based on current/anticipated knowledge)
Multidimensional Dynamic Displays. Real time holograms for surgery, patient interaction,
training (eg. Image Gloves, bare hand control; Voice Control, tracking, recognition)
Some capabilities.
Not yet in medical
domain
Displays available and in
regular use. Patient
interaction initiated
new business opportunities and
improvements in technology
Robots and artificial intelligence will have manifold roles in healthcare, including avatar
doctors, exoskeletons for nurses, and automated surgery. Emotional robots, that can
demonstrate empathy and help patients in their recovery. High performance medi
Hospitals and provider
integration initiated
Smart clothes and ongoing (interactive) physiological monitoring.. Neural interfaces. Bio-
signal monitoring
Some technologies
ready. No integration Some field testing
Technological challenges and
functionality improvements to
overcome bulk, use by first adopters
Neuron digital interfaces with environment and computers
Awareness. Some
academic progress.
Animal experimentation
advanced. Clinical trials
anticipated.
Advancement of technologies that
will / may be integrated.
Smart micro probes, Medical nanobots are being developed
Some technologies
ready. No integration
Animal experimentation
advanced. Clinical trials
anticipated.
new functionality enables an
infrastructure leaps
Hospital Palmtops for synchronous diagnosis and therapy
Some technologies
ready. No integration.
Initial commercial
applications Leading hospitals adopt
infrastructure in place to enable
communication
Clinical care Using biometrics to establish patient identity and background before
treatment administration.
Some technologies
ready. No integration Leading hospitals adopt
Bedside clinical information displays
to keep patients engaged in their
own care.
Clinical trial efficiency via prediction of drug ADMET. Absorption, distribution, metabolism,
excretion, toxicology
Some algorithms.
Initial companies
started.
Hospitals and provider
integration initiated
Technological challenges remain and
initial proof of cross species
agreement to be proven.
Innovatio
nmod
el
Cost-perform
ceBreakthr
oug
existing and new technology
platforms adopted in hospital and
medical settings
Real time robotic control in surgery
and interaction w/ patients
Home healthcare becomes possible
Populace expects fitness
experiences that are customized for
each persons age, gender, location,
spending power and personal
preferences.
Home rehabilitation increases while
predictive medicine possible. Virtual
training and fitness first via the internet
and then via implants
Initial testing in critical patients and
high risk/benefit athletes & militia
Addressing anticipated regulatory
issues. Patient acceptance
value chain efficiencies created in
hospitals and pharma industry.
Predictive medicine and efficacy of
therapy now possible
Functionality and efficiency
increases. New businesses and
business models develop w/
providers and payers
Decreases in insurance fraud; cost of
treatment, use of ineffective drugs.
Clinical trial costs decrease
Algorithm-driven diagnosis is
already well tried and tested and will
be implemented in EMR to bring
about cost-effective diagnosis and
increasingly, the same will apply to
the treatment of chronic diseases.
Computer navigation via integration of
a multitude of medical imaging
datasets through the real-time display
of anatomy during surgery. This will be
taken further via telemedicine, head up
displays and haptics feedback
technologies. Knowledge bases will i
Regulatory controls to be overcome
and first adopter value in the clinic
being addressed
More rapid and less costly
pharmaceutical and biomedical device
approval brings new products and
technologies to market. New
products and services launched.
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Personalised Medicine Will Dominate
HC Industry
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Current Health Value Chain
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Future Health Care Value Chain
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Some Conclusions for Canada
Canada has much of what the world needs (natural resources, food, energy
and knowledge). But these will not be enough after 2020 to maintain
Canada on a high income track without productivity-enhancing innovation
as well as high workforce participation.
The productivity challenge is major and could destroy Canada as a politicalentity if the per capita earnings gap with the US becomes too large. That
means changing the way Canada does business to focus on building an
innovative knowledge-based economy with a value added, high quality
orientation.
Green shift represents a a major challenge and opportunity. But only a
few yearsto 2020-- remain to build capacity to get into the game.
Innovation opp