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SchoolWorks, Inc.
8331 Sierra College Blvd. #221
Roseville, CA 95661
Phone: 916-733-0402
www.SchoolWorksGIS.com
CENTRAL UNIFIED
SCHOOL DISTRICT
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2017/18
4605 N. Polk Ave.
Fresno, CA 93722
559-274-4700
DRAFT —December 2017
Mr. Mark G. Sutton,
Superintendent
December 2017 Page i
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
TABLE OF CONTENTS Page INTRODUCTION ..............................................................................................................................1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................................1 METHODOLOGY .............................................................................................................................2 CLASSROOM COUNTS AND CAPACITY .............................................................................................2 HISTORIC BIRTH RATES ...................................................................................................................7 NEW HOUSING DEVELOPMENTS .....................................................................................................13 HISTORIC ENROLLMENT AND TRENDS .............................................................................................13 SCHOOL PROJECTIONS....................................................................................................................14 STUDENT RESIDENCY AND ENROLLMENT COMPARISON ..................................................................55 DISTRICT PROJECTIONS ..................................................................................................................56 SCHOOL FACILITY UTILIZATION .......................................................................................................60
December 2017 Page ii
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
CHARTS Page 10 YEAR ENROLLMENT HISTORY AND 6 YEAR ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS .......................................3 2017/2018 1 YEAR ENROLLMENT PROJECTION BY SCHOOL ..............................................................4 KINDERGARTEN PROJECTIONS BASED ON BIRTHS ............................................................................7 KINDERGARTEN ENROLLMENT TO BIRTH RATIO ..............................................................................8 RETENTION RATES SINCE KINDERGARTEN .......................................................................................9 NEW DEVELOPMENT CONSTRUCTION .............................................................................................12 HISTORIC ENROLLMENT AND COHORTS ..........................................................................................13 LOADING STANDARDS ....................................................................................................................14 CAPACITY & PROJECTED ENROLLMENT BIOLA-PERSHING ...............................................................................................................16 HARVEST ...........................................................................................................................18 HERNDON-BARSTOW .........................................................................................................20 HOUGHTON-KEARNEY .......................................................................................................22 LIDDELL .............................................................................................................................24 MADISON ..........................................................................................................................26
MCKINLEY .........................................................................................................................28 POLK .................................................................................................................................30 RIVER BLUFF ......................................................................................................................32 ROOSEVELT .......................................................................................................................34 SAROYAN ..........................................................................................................................36 STEINBECK .........................................................................................................................38 TEAGUE .............................................................................................................................40 TILLEY ...............................................................................................................................42 EL CAPITAN .......................................................................................................................44 GLACIER POINT ..................................................................................................................46 RIO VISTA ..........................................................................................................................48 CENTRAL HIGH ...................................................................................................................50 PERSHING CONT. ...............................................................................................................51 CLASS ................................................................................................................................52 PATHWAY COMMUNITY DAY SCHOOL ................................................................................53 STUDENT ATTENDANCE MATRIX .....................................................................................................54 STUDENT RESIDENCY AND ENROLLMENT COMPARISON ..................................................................55
December 2017 Page iii
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
CHARTS CONTINUED Page 10 YEAR ENROLLMENT HISTORY & 6 YEAR ENROLLMENT PROJECTION .............................................56 ONE YEAR ENROLLMENT PROJECTION SUMMARY ...........................................................................57 ENROLLMENT PROJECTION SUMMARY BY GRADE ...........................................................................58 ENROLLMENT PROJECTION SUMMARY BY SCHOOL .........................................................................59 SCHOOL FACILITY UTILIZATION .......................................................................................................60
December 2017 Page iv
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
MAPS Page DISTRICT MAP WITH STUDENT RESIDENTIAL LOCATION ...................................................................5 ELEMENTARY BOUNDARIES AND SCHOOL LOCATIONS .....................................................................6 NEW HOUSING DEVELOPMENTS .....................................................................................................10 SCHOOL BOUNDARY MAP BIOLA-PERSHING ...............................................................................................................15 HARVEST ...........................................................................................................................17 HERNDON-BARSTOW .........................................................................................................19 HOUGHTON-KEARNEY .......................................................................................................21 LIDDELL .............................................................................................................................23 MADISON ..........................................................................................................................25
MCKINLEY .........................................................................................................................27 POLK .................................................................................................................................29 RIVER BLUFF ......................................................................................................................31 ROOSEVELT .......................................................................................................................33 SAROYAN ..........................................................................................................................35 STEINBECK .........................................................................................................................37 TEAGUE .............................................................................................................................39 TILLEY ...............................................................................................................................41 EL CAPITAN .......................................................................................................................43 GLACIER POINT ..................................................................................................................45 RIO VISTA ..........................................................................................................................47 CENTRAL HIGH ...................................................................................................................49 SCHOOL FACILITY UTILIZATION .......................................................................................................61
December 2017 Page 1
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
Introduction This Demographic Study provides a comprehensive enrollment analysis for the Central Unified School District. The district-wide and school-specific enrollment projections are meant to serve as a planning tool to help with both long and short term planning. Demographic Studies examine the factors that influence school enrollments, namely trends in demographics, birth rates, and housing development. They are also used as a tool to identify certain facility planning requirements such as capacity, utilization of existing facilities, planning for modernization or new construction, and attendance boundary redistricting. This Study provides information based on the 2017/18 District enrollments and programs, City planning policies and residential development. As these factors change and timelines are adjusted, the Demographic Study should be revised to reflect the most current information.
Executive Summary Central Unified School District includes thirteen (13) K-6 elementary schools, one (1) K-8 elementary school, three (3) middle schools, one (1) comprehensive high school, one (1) continuation high school, one (1) Central Learning Adult School Site (CLASS) program, one (1) community day school, and one (1) Non-Public School (NPS) program. This Study has been prepared using the 2017/18 student enrollment data, current District policies and the latest new housing development information available at the time of this Study. The District has experienced steady growth over the past ten (10) years from an enrollment of 14,290 students during the 2009/10 school year to the current enrollment of 15,894 students. Central Unified School District is projected to grow in enrollment by 1.83% (or 291 students) for the 2018/19 school year. The District is projected to grow over the next six (6) years, with a projected enrollment of 17,445 students in the 2023/24 school year. This is a total growth of 1,551 students, which is an increase of 9.76%. The projections are predicated upon information provided by local municipalities on the development of 2,305 housing units over the next six (6) years. If the building rates increase or decrease, then the timeline shown in this Study will need to be modified accordingly. These projected new developments in the District's boundary are expected to generate 98 students next year, or a total of 1,479 students in the next six (6) years (with 1,085 of the 1,479 students being generated between 2021/22 and 2023/24). Based on current District loading standards and classroom space, the District has a total capacity of 20,500 students, and a current enrollment of 15,894. This gives the District a current utilization factor of 77.5%. The projected utilization factor in six (6) years will be 85.1%. This assumes loading standards remain constant and no additional facilities are built or removed. These projections assume the transfers between schools remain consistent. If changes in facilities, schedules, programs or policies are made, then the patterns may be impacted.
December 2017 Page 2
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
Methodology The enrollment projections for each school are generated using a State standard weighted cohort trend analysis. The basic projections are created by studying the individual geographic areas. Once the trends are analyzed for each area, the base projections are modified using the following procedures:
a) Birth rates are used to project future kindergarten enrollment. It is assumed if the births indicate there was an increase of 4% one year, then there will be a corresponding 4% increase in the kindergarten class five (5) years later.
b) New Housing Development rates and yield factors are compared to the historical impact of
development, and if the future projections exceed the historical values, the projections are augmented accordingly.
c) Inter-District student counts are not included in the base geographic trend analysis since
these students reside outside of the District. Therefore, the current number of students-per-school and students-per-grade are added to the base projections.
d) Intra-District students are those who transfer from one school to another. The number of
students transferring into and out of each school are calculated and used to determine the difference between the projections for students living in each attendance area versus those that are projected to attend the school.
e) The projections for special education students and alternative programs are created by
assuming those programs typically serve a percentage of the total District population. Therefore, as the District grows or declines, the enrollment in those programs would increase or decrease accordingly.
f) The number of students living in the boundary are used to generate the cohort factors. The
weighted average of the three (3) years was determined with the current year weighted 50%, the prior year 33.3% and the last year 16.7%. This gives the current trends more value in determining the projections. Those cohorts are then used to determine the students who will be residing in each attendance area for the following years.
Classroom Counts and Capacity The classroom counts are shown for each school and are used to determine the capacity. The classroom counts represent the rooms that can be used for teaching purposes at each school site. The classroom counts may not represent the current classrooms being used, as there may be unused rooms on the school site. In some cases, there may be fewer classrooms counted than current teaching stations if some of the rooms being used were designed for other purposes but are currently being used as classrooms due to overcrowding. The purpose of the classroom count and capacity are to show what the school capacity should be if all teaching spaces are being used in accordance with the educational programs of the District.
December 2017 Page 3
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
10 Year Enrollment History and 6 Year Enrollment Projections
The Central Unified School District has grown over the past ten (10) years from an enrollment of 14,290 in 2008/09 to the current enrollment of 15,894. This chart provides a summary of the last ten (10) years of historic enrollment and projected enrollment for the next six (6) years. The color orange represents the historic and projected enrollment for the elementary school grades TK-3. The color yellow represents the historic and projected enrollment for the elementary school grades 4-6. The color green represents the historic and projected enrollment for the middle school grades 7-8. The color blue represents the historic and projected enrollment for the high school grades 9-12. The color red represents the historic and projected enrollment for the ungraded Special Day Class (SDC) students. The entire District enrollment is shown at the top of each bar.
4378 4514 4636 4663 4890 4932 4971 4936 4990 5084 5245 5429 5408 5422 5403 5390
3341 3478 3470 3447 3482 3613 3639 3762 3709 3735 3695 3664 3773 3897 4087 4226
2359 2333 2321 24132455 2404 2453 2514 2524 2565 2617 2629 2610 2607 2638 2772
4212 4222 4390 43554419 4556 4500 4481 4549 4510 4628 4750 4836 4945 5005
505714290 1454714817 14878
1526115537 15584 15717 15772 15894
1618516472 16627 16871
1713317445
08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24
Stu
den
ts
YEAR
10 Year Enrollment History &6 Year Enrollment Projection
TK-3 4-6 7-8 9-12 SDC
December 2017 Page 4
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
2018/2019 1 Year Enrollment Projection by School
Central Unified School District has a current enrollment of 15,894 students. The projected enrollment for next year shows an increase of 291 students. This one (1) year summary analyzes the net change between the current District enrollment by school and by grade, and the projected enrollment for 2018/19. The cohort change factor indicates the change in the number of students for each grade compared to the number of students in the prior grade the previous year. These projections assume the transfers between schools remain consistent. If changes in facilities, schedules, programs or policies are made, then the patterns may be impacted. The students living in the boundary generate the cohort factors which are calculated for the past three (3) years and the weighted average is determined. Those cohorts are then used to determine the students who will be residing in each attendance area for the following years. Next the attendance factor is used to determine the net enrollment for each grade. The attendance factor is determined by analyzing the current year of students to see how many Inter- and Intra-district transfers there are.
School T K K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL
Biola-Pershing 14 29 36 40 22 38 28 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 235
Harvest 31 120 87 109 92 95 97 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 731
Herndon-Barstow 20 92 95 100 102 91 96 101 0 0 0 0 0 0 697
Houghton-Kearney 4 26 24 20 26 22 28 25 31 26 0 0 0 0 232
Liddell 27 115 96 110 103 89 96 84 0 0 0 0 0 0 720
Madison 12 103 111 80 83 111 94 119 0 0 0 0 0 0 713
McKinley 24 116 138 88 126 97 101 129 0 0 0 0 0 0 819
Polk 30 115 104 126 106 131 97 127 0 0 0 0 0 0 836
River Bluff 20 108 122 106 105 118 121 135 0 0 0 0 0 0 835
Roosevelt 18 65 73 59 57 66 85 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 483
Saroyan 24 102 103 117 100 98 93 108 0 0 0 0 0 0 745
Steinbeck 30 108 99 121 101 105 101 117 0 0 0 0 0 0 782
Teague 21 89 82 92 96 94 118 110 0 0 0 0 0 0 702
Tilley 17 83 66 80 74 38 55 41 0 0 0 0 0 0 454
El Capitan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 379 359 0 0 0 0 738
Glacier Point 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 480 470 0 0 0 0 950
Rio Vista 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 419 438 0 0 0 0 857
Central High 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,217 1,132 1,036 892 4,277
Pershing Cont 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 46 68 121
CLASS 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 2 4 5 13 27 66 104 224
Pathway Community Day School 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 1 1 5 2 8 4 5 29
NPS 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 5
Totals 292 1,271 1,238 1,250 1,194 1,193 1,214 1,288 1,314 1,303 1,234 1,173 1,152 1,069 16,185
Current CBEDS 277 1,216 1,236 1,162 1,193 1,195 1,243 1,297 1,294 1,271 1,201 1,185 1,089 1,035 15,894
Net Change 15 55 2 88 1 -2 -29 -9 20 32 33 -12 63 34 291
Cohort Change 22 14 32 0 19 45 17 9 -37 -28 -33 -20
YEAR 18/19, 1 Year Proj.
Central Unified School DistrictEnrollment Projections
December 2017 Page 5
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
District Map with Student Residential Locations
This map shows the District boundary along with the location of each student based on their residential address. This geographic data is the foundation for our demographic analysis. Any red dots outside the District boundary will represent students attending one of the District schools or programs but have a residence outside the District. This map also identifies different areas of student population density.
Central UnifiedCentral UnifiedCentral UnifiedCentral UnifiedCentral UnifiedCentral UnifiedCentral UnifiedCentral UnifiedCentral Unified
School DistrictSchool DistrictSchool DistrictSchool DistrictSchool DistrictSchool DistrictSchool DistrictSchool DistrictSchool District
December 2017 Page 6
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
Elementary Boundaries and School Locations
Id School Grades Id School Grades 1 Biola-Pershing Elementary TK-6 14 Tilley Elementary TK-6 2 Harvest Elementary TK-6 15 El Capitan Middle 7-8 3 Herndon-Barstow Elementary TK-6 16 Glacier Point Middle 7-8 4 Houghton-Kearney Elementary TK-8 17 Rio Vista Middle 7-8 5 Liddell Elementary TK-6 18 Central High – East Campus 9-12 6 Madison Elementary TK-6 19 Central High – West Campus 9-12 7 McKinley Elementary TK-6 20 New High School Site 8 Polk Elementary TK-6 21 Central Learning Adult Ed (CLASS) 9 River Bluff Elementary TK-6 22 Pershing Cont./Pathway Community Day 10 Roosevelt Elementary TK-6 23 Duplication Center 11 Saroyan Elementary TK-6 24 West Arts Center (WAC) 9-12 12 Steinbeck Elementary TK-6 25 Sierra-Constance Site 13 Teague Elementary TK-6 26 District Athletic Facilities
999999999171717171717171717
262626262626262626161616161616161616202020202020202020
151515151515151515191919191919191919
181818181818181818
111111111
333333333
444444444
555555555
888888888
131313131313131313
121212121212121212
111111111111111111
101010101010101010
242424242424242424 777777777
666666666
222222222
141414141414141414
212121212121212121232323232323232323
252525252525252525
222222222222222222
December 2017 Page 7
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
Historic Birth Rates The following section is an analysis of the number of births in the Central Unified School District. The number of births are compiled by zip code regions and provided by the Department of Health. The zip code areas do not exactly match the District boundaries and therefore the zip code 93722, which is in the District, was used for this analysis.
The above figure illustrates the correlation between births in the District area and the number of kindergarten students attending Central Unified schools five (5) years later. The number of births between 2001 and 2012 has averaged about 1,315 per year. The recent birth rates over the past four (4) years (2013 to 2016), which will generate the kindergarten classes for the next four (4) years (2018 to 2021), have been between 1,357 and 1,492. We have assumed that the current kindergarten capture rate of 89.35% will be maintained in the future. The kindergarten projections shown here do not account for the impact of any additional housing units.
*Kindergarten Totals may include some Trans i tional Kindergarten s tudents for some of the past years to more accurately
correlate a 12-month period of bi rths to a 12-month period of enrol lment.
10031108 1069
1138 1170 1225 12821221 1239
11351246 1216
1299 13331212 1214
11531193
1266 12761333
1420 1403
1291
13861324
1374 1361
14541492
1357 1359
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
School Year (Births are 5 years earlier)
Kindergarten Projections based on Births
K* students Births
Historic K* Enrollment compared to Births K Projections
December 2017 Page 8
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
Historic Kindergarten Capture Rates
This figure shows the kindergarten capture rates for the past 12 years. Since the birth data is derived from zip code areas, which do not exactly match with the District boundaries, the capture rate also accounts for differences in the coverage areas. Low capture rates are common when a district serves only a portion of a large zip code area. A large capture rate is possible when families move into the area after the children were born, but before they arrived for kindergarten. Overall, the District has had a stable capture rate with a 12 year average of 89.05%.
86.99%
92.88%
84.44%89.18% 87.77% 86.27%
91.38%94.58%
89.42%85.73%
90.68% 89.35%
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
School Year (Births are 5 years earlier)
Kindergarten Enrollment to Birth Ratio
December 2017 Page 9
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
Retention Rates Since Kindergarten
This chart compares the original kindergarten class size to the current enrollment for each grade. For example, the current 6th grade class has 1,297 students and six (6) years ago the kindergarten class had 1,225 students. Overall the class sizes have increased since kindergarten.
1216 1236 1162 1193 1195 1243 1297 1294 1271 1201 1185 1089 1035
12161246
1135 1152 11411177
1225
11701138
10691108
1003978
K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
CURRENT GRADE
Cohort Change Since Kindergarten
17/18 Enrollment Original K Class
December 2017 Page 10
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
New Housing Developments
To determine the impact of the new housing development, each new housing unit is multiplied by the student yield rate. Currently the District student yield rate is 0.642 students per housing unit. This breaks down as follows: Grade District State K-6 0.351 0.40 7-8 0.101 0.10 9-12 0.190 0.20 Total 0.642 0.70 The yield rate used for new construction eligibility determination in the State building program is 0.70 students per home for K-12 districts. The yield rate in the Central Unified School District is lower than the State average.
232323232323232323212121212121212121
191919191919191919 474747474747474747
545454545454545454
131313131313131313
242424242424242424181818181818181818
161616161616161616
343434343434343434
444444444
555555555
121212121212121212
777777777
252525252525252525
292929292929292929
494949494949494949
313131313131313131
323232323232323232
141414141414141414
111111111111111111
333333333
111111111
888888888202020202020202020
222222222222222222
151515151515151515
464646464646464646
999999999
383838383838383838575757575757575757
484848484848484848
444444444444444444363636363636363636
515151515151515151
565656565656565656
333333333333333333
535353535353535353
282828282828282828
303030303030303030
262626262626262626
373737373737373737434343434343434343
393939393939393939
454545454545454545666666666525252525252525252
404040404040404040101010101010101010
353535353535353535
414141414141414141
222222222
272727272727272727
424242424242424242
505050505050505050
171717171717171717
555555555555555555
December 2017 Page 11
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
The close up view of the District shows the location of the projected new development areas. The projections used in this report are based on the following number of units projected from these developments:
Assuming that 2,305 of the 10,090 planned units are completed over a six (6) year period, there would be an average of 384 new housing units per year.
Remaining 6 Year Remaining 6 Year
ID Name Units Projection ID Name Units Projection
1 5284-KB Homes 115 115 30 5631 15 15
2 5350 773 0 31 5632 88 88
3 5363 109 109 32 5633 473 120
4 5443 283 20 33 5642 98 0
5 5444 61 10 34 5652-RJ Hill 173 130
6 5453 7 7 35 5674 207 20
7 5456 214 120 36 5680 185 20
8 5463 322 50 37 5695 88 0
9 5479 122 40 38 5710 DR Horton 25 25
10 5481 74 74 39 5725 122 0
11 5493-Centex 244 70 40 5731 6 0
12 5494 Summer Grove 163 163 41 5754 78 0
13 5514 71 0 42 5756 87 10
14 5537 40 40 43 5766 18 0
15 5538 93 30 44 5768 311 0
16 5554 43 43 45 5782 10 0
17 5555 N DANTE AVE 80 80 46 5864 125 40
18 5558 82 0 47 5881 50 0
19 5560 88 20 48 5891 656 220
20 5574 91 30 49 6029 23 23
21 5586 73 73 50 6036 Lennar 10 10
22 5587 305 30 51 6054 69 69
23 5591 49 49 52 6066 78 78
24 5595 Tapestry 50 50 53 6090 La Ventana 18 18
25 5598 80 80 54 6785 W BARSTOW AVE 180 0
26 5599 15 15 55 Apartments 400 0
27 5604 106 10 56 Westlake Dev Proj North 650 0
28 5608 53 0 57 Westlake Dev Proj South 1,950 0
29 5622 91 91 Totals 10,090 2,305
December 2017 Page 12
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
Based on these estimated construction rates, the development will generate 98 students next year and a total of 1,479 students in the next six (6) years.
18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24
School Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Totals
Biola-Pershing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Harvest 20 50 60 100 120 160 510
Herndon-Barstow 28 0 30 30 50 39 177
Houghton-Kearney 0 0 0 53 55 85 193
Liddell 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Madison 0 10 20 30 65 95 220
McKinley 0 0 0 20 30 30 80
Polk 40 51 61 66 30 30 278
River Bluff 25 25 0 0 0 0 50
Roosevelt 0 0 57 79 95 117 348
Saroyan 0 0 63 63 23 0 149
Steinbeck 25 0 0 18 50 50 143
Teague 15 0 0 10 18 10 53
Tilley 0 17 17 20 20 30 104
Elementary Totals 153 153 308 489 556 646 2,305
El Capitan 40 78 98 136 145 185 682
Glacier Point 60 50 117 207 283 337 1,054
Houghton-Kearney (7-8) 0 0 0 53 55 85 193
Rio Vista 53 25 93 93 73 39 376
Middle Totals 153 153 308 489 556 646 2,305
Central High 153 153 308 489 556 646 2,305
High Totals 153 153 308 489 556 646 2,305
Central Unified School DistrictNew Development Construction
Housing Units per Year
December 2017 Page 13
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
Historic Enrollment and Trends
This chart shows the enrollment by grade level over the past four (4) years. The cohort values were calculated for each grade and each year, along with the weighted average for each grade. A positive cohort value indicates that grade is expected to have more students than the previous grade last year. A negative value would mean that the grade has fewer students compared to the previous grade last year. In general, a positive cohort is representative of growth and a negative cohort indicates a decline in enrollment. There are some exceptions. First grade usually has a positive cohort, as there are some students that do not attend kindergarten at public schools but arrive in first grade. Another important item to notice is the current breakdown by grade level of the student population. Comparing the number of students in the lower grades to the upper grades can indicate potential increases or decreases in future enrollments. Also, if there is a large class or a small class, it will slowly cause a ripple in the enrollments as it advances a grade each year. Finally, the annual change at the bottom of this chart indicates the net impact of the changes in enrollment over the past few years.
Weighted
Grade 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 Average
T K 262 270 256 277
K 1,152 1,135 1,246 1,216 -17 111 -30 19.2
1 1,124 1,177 1,146 1,236 25 11 -10 2.8
2 1,199 1,151 1,172 1,162 27 -5 16 10.8
3 1,234 1,203 1,170 1,193 4 19 21 17.5
4 1,212 1,258 1,205 1,195 24 2 25 17.2
5 1,234 1,247 1,250 1,243 35 -8 38 22.2
6 1,193 1,257 1,254 1,297 23 7 47 29.7
7 1,261 1,245 1,272 1,294 52 15 40 33.7
8 1,192 1,269 1,252 1,271 8 7 -1 3.2
9 1,161 1,146 1,213 1,201 -46 -56 -51 -51.8
10 1,170 1,118 1,119 1,185 -43 -27 -28 -30.2
11 1,098 1,134 1,073 1,089 -36 -45 -30 -36.0
12 1,071 1,083 1,144 1,035 -15 10 -38 -18.2
SDC 21 24 0 0 3 -24 0 -7.5
Totals 15,584 15,717 15,772 15,894 3.1 1.2 -0.1 0.9
Annual Change: 133 55 122
CBEDS Enrollment Historic Cohorts
Central Unified School District
Historic Enrollment and Cohorts
December 2017 Page 14
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
School Projections After the boundary map for each school, there is a chart that shows the projected enrollment for the next six (6) years. These charts indicate the actual enrollment at each school over the past four (4) years along with the projected enrollment for the next six (6) years. In addition, the number of students living in the boundary are shown for the same time period. If there are more students attending than live in the area, then there is a net inflow. If more students live in the boundary than attend the school, then there is a net outflow. The current capacity is shown on these charts to identify if there will be classroom space available for the students. If space is not available, then the attendance patterns will likely need to change if the additional facilities are not provided. The capacity for each school was determined by using the following loading standards for each classroom identified: Grade Class Size Loading Standard TK-K 26 24.7 1-3 26 24.7 4-6 35 33.3 7-8 38 34.2 9-12 38 34.2 These loading standards are based on the current loading factors used this year and may change based on the level of funding for schools in the future. Backup data is provided below each projection chart that shows the calculations of the cohort factors used to determine the enrollment projections for each school. The number of students living in the boundary are shown, which are then used to generate the cohort factors. The weighted average of the three (3) years was determined with the current year weighted 50%, the prior year 33.3% and the last year 16.7%. This gives the current trends more value in determining the projections. Those cohorts are then used to determine the students who will be residing in each attendance area for the following years. The kindergarten enrollment is projected using the birth data instead of the cohort factor shown here. The Attendance Factors were determined by analyzing the current year of students to see how many Inter- and Intra-District transfers there are. Once the baseline projections are calculated for the residents in the attendance area, the Intra-District and Inter-District factors are applied to determine the projected enrollment for each school. The last three (3) columns in the chart, Current Enrollment, 18/19 Projection, and Net Change, show the current enrollment, next year’s projection and net change in enrollment for next year. These are compared by grade to show the details needed for staffing and classroom needs.
December 2017 Page 15
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
RooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRoosevelt
Herndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-Barstow
Biola-PershingBiola-PershingBiola-PershingBiola-PershingBiola-PershingBiola-PershingBiola-PershingBiola-PershingBiola-Pershing
Houghton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-Kearney
Biola-Pershing
Student Legend
Incoming from other Districts (3)
Incoming from other schools (5)
Living in area and attending this school (227)
Outgoing to other schools (30)
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Inter-District
Harvest
Herndon-Barstow
Houghton-Kearney
Liddell
River Bluff
Saroyan
Teague
3
0
3
1
0
0
0
1
0
7
3
2
1
4
11
2
Incoming Outgoing
Students
Biola-Pershing
Transfer Students
December 2017 Page 16
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
District Loading Standards
Traditional School
All Portables Loaded
Classroom Count = 10
Grades Served = K - 6
Classroom Needs TimelineProjected
Total Annual Spec. Ed. Facility Unhoused Annual CR Total CR's Available Housing
Year Students* Change Students Capacity Students Needed Needed Seats Units
17/18 235 12 0 273 0 0 -1 38
18/19 235 0 0 273 0 0 -1 38 0
19/20 238 3 0 273 0 0 -1 35 0
20/21 239 1 0 273 0 0 -1 34 0
21/22 231 -8 0 273 0 0 -1 42 0
22/23 229 -2 0 273 0 0 -1 44 0
23/24 221 -8 0 273 0 0 -2 52 0
* Based on Students Attending (Squares on Graph)
Classroom Count = 10
213 217 223 235 235 238 239
231 229 221
Capacity
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24
Capacity & Projected Enrollment Biola-Pershing
Students attending(History = CBEDS) Students living in attendance area School Capacity = 273
Weighted Attendance Factors Current 18/19 Net
YEAR: 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 Average Intra Inter Enrollment Projection Change
Grade
T K 5 6 7 15 14 14 0
K 35 33 37 33 -2 4 -4 0 -9.1% 0.0% 30 29 -1
1 34 42 33 41 7 0 4 3 0.0% 0.0% 41 36 -5
2 32 31 38 33 -3 -4 0 -2 0.0% 3.0% 34 40 6
3 37 31 32 41 -1 1 3 2 -34.1% 2.4% 28 22 -6
4 23 34 32 29 -3 1 -3 -2 -6.9% 3.4% 28 38 10
5 38 24 34 31 1 0 -1 0 -3.2% 0.0% 30 28 -2
6 25 37 27 34 -1 3 0 1 -11.8% 0.0% 30 28 -2
Totals 229 238 240 257 -0.3 0.7 -0.1 0.3 -9.3% 1.3% 235 235 0
Historic CohortsStudents in boundary
Biola-Pershing
December 2017 Page 17
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
PolkPolkPolkPolkPolkPolkPolkPolkPolk
Herndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-Barstow
RooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRoosevelt
SteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeck
TeagueTeagueTeagueTeagueTeagueTeagueTeagueTeagueTeague
HarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvest
Houghton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-Kearney
McKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinley
SaroyanSaroyanSaroyanSaroyanSaroyanSaroyanSaroyanSaroyanSaroyan
River BluffRiver BluffRiver BluffRiver BluffRiver BluffRiver BluffRiver BluffRiver BluffRiver Bluff
Harvest
Student Legend
Incoming from other Districts (9)
Incoming from other schools (85)
Living in area and attending this school (631)
Outgoing to other schools (39)
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32
Inter-District
Biola-Pershing
Herndon-Barstow
Houghton-Kearney
Liddell
Madison
McKinley
Polk
River Bluff
Roosevelt
Saroyan
Steinbeck
Teague
Tilley
9
7
8
1
2
4
10
7
3
2
3
8
29
1
0
0
5
4
4
0
2
2
0
2
6
10
2
2
Incoming Outgoing
Students
Harvest
Transfer Students
December 2017 Page 18
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
District Loading Standards
Traditional School
All Portables Loaded
Classroom Count = 33
Grades Served = K - 6
Classroom Needs TimelineProjected
Total Annual Spec. Ed. Facility Unhoused Annual CR Total CR's Available Housing
Year Students* Change Students Capacity Students Needed Needed Seats Units
17/18 724 10 0 918 0 0 -7 194
18/19 731 7 0 918 0 0 -6 187 20
19/20 765 34 0 918 0 0 -6 153 50
20/21 785 20 0 918 0 0 -5 133 60
21/22 803 18 0 918 0 0 -4 115 100
22/23 820 17 0 918 0 0 -4 98 120
23/24 829 9 0 918 0 0 -4 89 160
* Based on Students Attending (Squares on Graph)
Classroom Count = 33
654 680
714 724 731 765 785 803 820 829
Capacity
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24
Capacity & Projected Enrollment Harvest
Students attending(History = CBEDS) Students living in attendance area School Capacity = 918
Weighted Attendance Factors Current 18/19 Net
YEAR: 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 Average Intra Inter Enrollment Projection Change
Grade
T K 15 23 18 23 28 31 3
K 83 80 106 82 -3 26 -24 1 34.1% 0.0% 110 120 10
1 77 86 82 106 3 2 0 1 3.8% 0.0% 110 87 -23
2 69 79 87 92 2 1 10 6 -3.3% 0.0% 89 109 20
3 105 78 85 88 9 6 1 4 -5.7% 1.1% 84 92 8
4 92 105 81 88 0 3 3 3 1.1% 3.4% 92 95 3
5 87 90 103 85 -2 -2 4 1 5.9% 3.5% 93 97 4
6 85 91 93 106 4 3 3 3 9.4% 1.9% 118 100 -18
Totals 613 632 655 670 1.9 5.6 -0.4 2.7 6.5% 1.4% 724 731 7
Historic CohortsStudents in boundary
Harvest
December 2017 Page 19
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
SaroyanSaroyanSaroyanSaroyanSaroyanSaroyanSaroyanSaroyanSaroyan
RooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRoosevelt
LiddellLiddellLiddellLiddellLiddellLiddellLiddellLiddellLiddell
River BluffRiver BluffRiver BluffRiver BluffRiver BluffRiver BluffRiver BluffRiver BluffRiver Bluff
Herndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-Barstow
TeagueTeagueTeagueTeagueTeagueTeagueTeagueTeagueTeague
HarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvest
Houghton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-Kearney
McKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinley
Herndon-Barstow
Student Legend
Incoming from other Districts (7)
Incoming from other schools (29)
Living in area and attending this school (624)
Outgoing to other schools (112)
0 10 20 30 40 50
Inter-District
Biola-Pershing
Harvest
Houghton-Kearney
Liddell
Madison
McKinley
Polk
River Bluff
Roosevelt
Saroyan
Steinbeck
Teague
Tilley
7
3
5
0
2
0
2
2
4
3
4
0
4
0
0
3
8
1
46
1
4
4
28
0
14
1
1
1
Incoming Outgoing
Students
Herndon-Barstow
Transfer Students
December 2017 Page 20
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
District Loading Standards
Traditional School
All Portables Loaded
Classroom Count = 31
Grades Served = K - 6
Classroom Needs TimelineProjected
Total Annual Spec. Ed. Facility Unhoused Annual CR Total CR's Available Housing
Year Students* Change Students Capacity Students Needed Needed Seats Units
17/18 660 34 0 860 0 0 -7 200
18/19 697 37 0 860 0 0 -5 163 28
19/20 715 18 0 860 0 0 -5 145 0
20/21 738 23 0 860 0 0 -4 122 30
21/22 763 25 0 860 0 0 -4 97 30
22/23 780 17 0 860 0 0 -3 80 50
23/24 778 -2 0 860 0 0 -4 82 39
* Based on Students Attending (Squares on Graph)
Classroom Count = 31
578 624 626
660 697 715 738
763 780 778
Capacity
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24
Capacity & Projected Enrollment Herndon-Barstow
Students attending(History = CBEDS) Students living in attendance area School Capacity = 860
Weighted Attendance Factors Current 18/19 Net
YEAR: 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 Average Intra Inter Enrollment Projection Change
Grade
T K 22 28 24 20 18 20 2
K 77 87 101 97 10 14 -4 1 -13.4% 0.0% 84 92 8
1 78 87 92 110 10 5 9 8 -10.9% 1.8% 100 95 -5
2 98 83 85 102 5 -2 10 5 -15.7% 1.0% 87 100 13
3 86 97 91 93 -1 8 8 7 -8.6% 1.1% 86 102 16
4 87 85 102 99 -1 5 8 6 -8.1% 0.0% 91 91 0
5 91 87 90 105 0 5 3 3 -7.6% 1.9% 99 96 -3
6 60 92 90 110 1 3 20 11 -14.5% 0.9% 95 101 6
Totals 599 646 675 736 3.4 5.4 7.7 5.9 -11.3% 1.0% 660 697 37
Historic CohortsStudents in boundary
Herndon-Barstow
December 2017 Page 21
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
MadisonMadisonMadisonMadisonMadisonMadisonMadisonMadisonMadison
SteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeck
McKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinley
HarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvest
RooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRoosevelt
Houghton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-Kearney
PolkPolkPolkPolkPolkPolkPolkPolkPolkTilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyTilley
Houghton-Kearney
Student Legend
Incoming from other Districts (13)
Incoming from other schools (34)
Living in area and attending this school (186)
Outgoing to other schools (24)
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Inter-District
Biola-Pershing
El Capitan
Glacier Point
Harvest
Herndon-Barstow
Liddell
Madison
McKinley
Polk
Rio Vista
River Bluff
Roosevelt
Teague
Tilley
13
2
6
3
4
1
0
6
3
4
0
1
0
1
3
0
1
2
4
1
0
1
4
0
3
5
0
3
0
0
Incoming Outgoing
Students
Houghton-Kearney
Transfer Students
December 2017 Page 22
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
District Loading Standards
Traditional School
All Portables Loaded
Classroom Count = 12
Grades Served = K - 8
Classroom Needs TimelineProjected
Total Annual Spec. Ed. Facility Unhoused Annual CR Total CR's Available Housing
Year Students* Change Students Capacity Students Needed Needed Seats Units
17/18 233 9 0 351 0 0 -4 118
18/19 232 -1 0 351 0 0 -4 119 0
19/20 236 4 0 351 0 0 -4 115 0
20/21 233 -3 0 351 0 0 -4 118 0
21/22 248 15 0 351 0 0 -4 103 53
22/23 259 11 0 351 0 0 -3 92 55
23/24 291 32 0 351 0 0 -2 60 85
* Based on Students Attending (Squares on Graph)
Classroom Count = 12
228 220 224 233 232 236 233 248
259
291
Capacity
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24
Capacity & Projected Enrollment Houghton-Kearney
Students attending(History = CBEDS) Students living in attendance area School Capacity = 351
Weighted Attendance Factors Current 18/19 Net
YEAR: 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 Average Intra Inter Enrollment Projection Change
Grade
T K 5 8 5 4 4 4 0
K 20 20 17 20 0 -3 3 0 15.0% 5.0% 24 26 2
1 29 16 20 18 -4 0 1 0 11.1% 11.1% 22 24 2
2 22 28 14 21 -1 -2 1 0 0.0% 9.5% 23 20 -3
3 24 19 28 18 -3 0 4 2 16.7% 0.0% 21 26 5
4 20 26 19 25 2 0 -3 -1 12.0% 8.0% 30 22 -8
5 28 20 24 23 0 -2 4 1 8.7% 0.0% 25 28 3
6 24 27 20 25 -1 0 1 0 -4.0% 12.0% 27 25 -2
7 23 26 29 25 2 2 5 4 4.0% 4.0% 27 31 4
8 22 21 29 31 -2 3 2 2 -9.7% 6.5% 30 26 -4
Totals 217 211 205 210 -0.8 -0.2 2.0 0.9 6.0% 6.2% 233 232 -1
Historic CohortsStudents in boundary
Houghton-Kearney
December 2017 Page 23
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
SaroyanSaroyanSaroyanSaroyanSaroyanSaroyanSaroyanSaroyanSaroyan
LiddellLiddellLiddellLiddellLiddellLiddellLiddellLiddellLiddell
River BluffRiver BluffRiver BluffRiver BluffRiver BluffRiver BluffRiver BluffRiver BluffRiver Bluff
Liddell
Student Legend
Incoming from other Districts (25)
Incoming from other schools (113)
Living in area and attending this school (579)
Outgoing to other schools (50)
0 10 20 30 40 50
Inter-District
Biola-Pershing
Harvest
Herndon-Barstow
Houghton-Kearney
McKinley
Polk
River Bluff
Roosevelt
Saroyan
Steinbeck
Teague
Tilley
25
1
4
46
1
3
0
26
3
10
8
7
4
0
0
2
2
0
0
2
41
0
3
0
0
0
Incoming Outgoing
Students
Liddell
Transfer Students
December 2017 Page 24
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
District Loading Standards
Traditional School
All Portables Loaded
Classroom Count = 32
Grades Served = K - 6
Classroom Needs TimelineProjected
Total Annual Spec. Ed. Facility Unhoused Annual CR Total CR's Available Housing
Year Students* Change Students Capacity Students Needed Needed Seats Units
17/18 717 42 0 876 0 0 -6 159
18/19 720 3 0 876 0 0 -5 156 0
19/20 728 8 0 876 0 0 -5 148 0
20/21 715 -13 0 876 0 0 -6 161 0
21/22 714 -1 0 876 0 0 -6 162 0
22/23 720 6 0 876 0 0 -6 156 0
23/24 719 -1 0 876 0 0 -5 157 0
* Based on Students Attending (Squares on Graph)
Classroom Count = 32
673
702 675
717 720 728 715 714 720 719
Capacity
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24
Capacity & Projected Enrollment Liddell
Students attending(History = CBEDS) Students living in attendance area School Capacity = 876
Weighted Attendance Factors Current 18/19 Net
YEAR: 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 Average Intra Inter Enrollment Projection Change
Grade
T K 29 20 20 19 25 27 2
K 83 87 90 86 4 3 -4 1 19.8% 4.7% 107 115 8
1 102 86 82 91 3 -5 1 0 9.9% 1.1% 101 96 -5
2 90 105 87 85 3 1 3 2 14.1% 5.9% 102 110 8
3 94 87 96 87 -3 -9 0 -4 17.2% 8.0% 109 103 -6
4 96 88 81 92 -6 -6 -4 -5 6.5% 1.1% 99 89 -10
5 109 95 91 84 -1 3 3 2 1.2% 1.2% 86 96 10
6 109 106 96 85 -3 1 -6 -3 -3.5% 7.1% 88 84 -4
Totals 712 674 643 629 -0.4 -1.7 -1.0 -1.0 9.3% 4.1% 717 720 3
Historic CohortsStudents in boundary
Liddell
December 2017 Page 25
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
PolkPolkPolkPolkPolkPolkPolkPolkPolk
Houghton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-Kearney
MadisonMadisonMadisonMadisonMadisonMadisonMadisonMadisonMadison
McKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinley
TilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyMadison
Student Legend
Incoming from other Districts (24)
Incoming from other schools (295)
Living in area and attending this school (376)
Outgoing to other schools (36)
0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280
Inter-District
Harvest
Herndon-Barstow
Houghton-Kearney
McKinley
Polk
River Bluff
Roosevelt
Steinbeck
Teague
Tilley
24
0
1
4
23
9
0
4
4
6
244
0
4
0
6
9
4
3
1
2
0
7
Incoming Outgoing
Students
Madison
Transfer Students
December 2017 Page 26
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
District Loading Standards
Traditional School
All Portables Loaded
Classroom Count = 36
Grades Served = K - 6
Classroom Needs TimelineProjected
Total Annual Spec. Ed. Facility Unhoused Annual CR Total CR's Available Housing
Year Students* Change Students Capacity Students Needed Needed Seats Units
17/18 695 -4 0 1010 0 0 -11 315
18/19 713 18 0 1010 0 0 -10 297 0
19/20 723 10 0 1010 0 0 -10 287 10
20/21 735 12 0 1010 0 0 -10 275 20
21/22 743 8 0 1010 0 0 -9 267 30
22/23 764 21 0 1010 0 0 -8 246 65
23/24 804 40 0 1010 0 0 -8 206 95
* Based on Students Attending (Squares on Graph)
Classroom Count = 36
793
652 699 695 713 723 735 743 764
804
Capacity
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24
Capacity & Projected Enrollment Madison
Students attending(History = CBEDS) Students living in attendance area School Capacity = 1010
Weighted Attendance Factors Current 18/19 Net
YEAR: 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 Average Intra Inter Enrollment Projection Change
Grade
T K 12 11 13 10 13 12 -1
K 67 49 46 70 -18 -3 24 1 55.7% 2.9% 111 103 -8
1 47 64 53 49 -3 4 3 2 79.6% 0.0% 88 111 23
2 58 57 61 56 10 -3 3 2 44.6% 7.1% 85 80 -5
3 44 53 58 59 -5 1 -2 -2 37.3% 11.9% 88 83 -5
4 55 49 61 57 5 8 -1 3 77.2% 8.8% 106 111 5
5 49 59 51 60 4 2 -1 1 58.3% 1.7% 96 94 -2
6 61 52 62 51 3 3 0 2 102.0% 9.8% 108 119 11
Totals 393 394 405 412 -0.6 1.7 3.7 1.3 65.0% 6.0% 695 713 18
Historic CohortsStudents in boundary
Madison
December 2017 Page 27
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
HarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvest
PolkPolkPolkPolkPolkPolkPolkPolkPolk
SteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeck
TilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyTilley
McKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMadisonMadisonMadisonMadisonMadisonMadisonMadisonMadisonMadison
McKinley
Student Legend
Incoming from other Districts (13)
Incoming from other schools (59)
Living in area and attending this school (758)
Outgoing to other schools (113)
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32
Inter-District
Harvest
Herndon-Barstow
Houghton-Kearney
Liddell
Madison
Polk
River Bluff
Roosevelt
Saroyan
Steinbeck
Teague
Tilley
13
2
4
0
0
9
6
0
4
0
3
2
29
0
10
2
3
3
23
26
2
4
11
10
1
18
Incoming Outgoing
Students
McKinley
Transfer Students
December 2017 Page 28
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
District Loading Standards
Traditional School
All Portables Loaded
Classroom Count = 35
Grades Served = K - 6
Classroom Needs TimelineProjected
Total Annual Spec. Ed. Facility Unhoused Annual CR Total CR's Available Housing
Year Students* Change Students Capacity Students Needed Needed Seats Units
17/18 830 -7 0 968 0 0 -5 138
18/19 819 -11 0 968 0 0 -5 149 0
19/20 826 7 0 968 0 0 -5 142 0
20/21 839 13 0 968 0 0 -4 129 0
21/22 863 24 0 968 0 0 -4 105 20
22/23 868 5 0 968 0 0 -3 100 30
23/24 909 41 0 968 0 0 -2 59 30
* Based on Students Attending (Squares on Graph)
Classroom Count = 35
932
810 837 830 819 826 839 863 868 909
Capacity
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24
Capacity & Projected Enrollment McKinley
Students attending(History = CBEDS) Students living in attendance area School Capacity = 968
Weighted Attendance Factors Current 18/19 Net
YEAR: 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 Average Intra Inter Enrollment Projection Change
Grade
T K 28 25 36 27 23 24 1
K 117 131 107 134 14 -24 27 2 -16.4% 1.5% 114 116 2
1 111 105 140 100 -12 9 -7 -1 5.0% 0.0% 105 138 33
2 111 110 113 133 -1 8 -7 -1 -9.8% 1.5% 122 88 -34
3 149 109 111 103 -2 1 -10 -5 -3.9% 1.9% 101 126 25
4 116 140 121 104 -9 12 -7 -1 -5.8% 1.0% 99 97 -2
5 139 103 137 122 -13 -3 1 -3 -1.6% 1.6% 122 101 -21
6 132 139 119 148 0 16 11 11 -5.4% 2.7% 144 129 -15
Totals 903 862 884 871 -3.3 2.7 1.1 0.3 -5.4% 1.5% 830 819 -11
Historic CohortsStudents in boundary
McKinley
December 2017 Page 29
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
SteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeck
MadisonMadisonMadisonMadisonMadisonMadisonMadisonMadisonMadison
McKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinley
Houghton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-Kearney
RooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRoosevelt
HarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvest
PolkPolkPolkPolkPolkPolkPolkPolkPolk
Polk
Student Legend
Incoming from other Districts (4)
Incoming from other schools (98)
Living in area and attending this school (709)
Outgoing to other schools (54)
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28
Inter-District
Harvest
Herndon-Barstow
Houghton-Kearney
Liddell
Madison
McKinley
River Bluff
Roosevelt
Saroyan
Steinbeck
Teague
Tilley
4
2
4
3
2
4
26
2
17
2
9
11
16
0
7
2
4
0
9
6
0
4
1
1
1
19
Incoming Outgoing
Students
Polk
Transfer Students
December 2017 Page 30
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
District Loading Standards
Traditional School
All Portables Loaded
Classroom Count = 33
Grades Served = K - 6
Classroom Needs TimelineProjected
Total Annual Spec. Ed. Facility Unhoused Annual CR Total CR's Available Housing
Year Students* Change Students Capacity Students Needed Needed Seats Units
17/18 810 -24 0 918 0 0 -3 108
18/19 836 26 0 918 0 0 -2 82 40
19/20 864 28 0 918 0 0 -2 54 51
20/21 894 30 0 918 0 0 -1 24 61
21/22 903 9 0 918 0 0 0 15 66
22/23 912 9 0 918 0 0 -1 6 30
23/24 912 0 0 918 0 0 0 6 30
* Based on Students Attending (Squares on Graph)
Classroom Count = 33
884
805 834 810 836
864 894 903 912 912 Capacity
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24
Capacity & Projected Enrollment Polk
Students attending(History = CBEDS) Students living in attendance area School Capacity = 918
Weighted Attendance Factors Current 18/19 Net
YEAR: 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 Average Intra Inter Enrollment Projection Change
Grade
T K 20 19 23 27 28 30 2
K 104 99 120 105 -5 21 -15 2 1.9% 1.0% 108 115 7
1 87 106 109 116 2 10 -4 2 -3.4% 0.0% 112 104 -8
2 98 84 110 103 -3 4 -6 -2 9.7% 1.0% 114 126 12
3 91 107 89 114 9 5 4 5 -4.4% 1.8% 111 106 -5
4 111 100 102 86 9 -5 -3 -2 20.9% 0.0% 104 131 27
5 99 112 105 106 1 5 4 4 5.7% 0.0% 112 97 -15
6 100 110 120 106 11 8 1 5 14.2% 0.0% 121 127 6
Totals 710 737 778 763 3.4 6.9 -2.7 2.0 6.4% 0.5% 810 836 26
Historic CohortsStudents in boundary
Polk
December 2017 Page 31
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
River BluffRiver BluffRiver BluffRiver BluffRiver BluffRiver BluffRiver BluffRiver BluffRiver Bluff
SaroyanSaroyanSaroyanSaroyanSaroyanSaroyanSaroyanSaroyanSaroyan
LiddellLiddellLiddellLiddellLiddellLiddellLiddellLiddellLiddell
Herndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-Barstow
River Bluff
Student Legend
Incoming from other Districts (16)
Incoming from other schools (117)
Living in area and attending this school (665)
Outgoing to other schools (45)
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Inter-District
Biola-Pershing
Harvest
Herndon-Barstow
Houghton-Kearney
Liddell
Madison
McKinley
Polk
Roosevelt
Saroyan
Steinbeck
Teague
16
4
0
28
0
41
3
2
0
5
32
1
1
0
0
3
4
1
26
0
0
2
0
9
0
0
Incoming Outgoing
Students
River Bluff
Transfer Students
December 2017 Page 32
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
District Loading Standards
Traditional School
All Portables Loaded
Classroom Count = 36
Grades Served = K - 6
Classroom Needs TimelineProjected
Total Annual Spec. Ed. Facility Unhoused Annual CR Total CR's Available Housing
Year Students* Change Students Capacity Students Needed Needed Seats Units
17/18 799 -18 0 1010 0 0 -7 211
18/19 835 36 0 1010 0 0 -7 175 25
19/20 854 19 0 1010 0 0 -6 156 25
20/21 867 13 0 1010 0 0 -5 143 0
21/22 870 3 0 1010 0 0 -5 140 0
22/23 878 8 0 1010 0 0 -4 132 0
23/24 882 4 0 1010 0 0 -5 128 0
* Based on Students Attending (Squares on Graph)
Classroom Count = 36
918 927 817 799
835 854 867 870 878 882
Capacity
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24
Capacity & Projected Enrollment River Bluff
Students attending(History = CBEDS) Students living in attendance area School Capacity = 1010
Weighted Attendance Factors Current 18/19 Net
YEAR: 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 Average Intra Inter Enrollment Projection Change
Grade
T K 21 13 23 19 21 20 -1
K 84 95 90 111 11 -5 21 2 -1.8% 2.7% 112 108 -4
1 73 91 94 96 7 -1 6 4 4.2% 3.1% 103 122 19
2 93 80 96 91 7 5 -3 1 9.9% 0.0% 100 106 6
3 78 107 82 98 14 2 2 4 8.2% 2.0% 108 105 -3
4 73 86 106 92 8 -1 10 6 13.0% 2.2% 106 118 12
5 95 81 89 110 8 3 4 4 21.8% 0.9% 135 121 -14
6 76 92 88 93 -3 7 4 4 17.2% 5.4% 114 135 21
Totals 593 645 668 710 7.4 1.4 6.3 3.6 10.4% 2.3% 799 835 36
Historic CohortsStudents in boundary
River Bluff
December 2017 Page 33
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
RooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRoosevelt
Houghton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-Kearney
MadisonMadisonMadisonMadisonMadisonMadisonMadisonMadisonMadison
TilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyTilley
McKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinley
PolkPolkPolkPolkPolkPolkPolkPolkPolk
SteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeck
TeagueTeagueTeagueTeagueTeagueTeagueTeagueTeagueTeague
HarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvest
Herndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-Barstow
Roosevelt
Student Legend
Incoming from other Districts (8)
Incoming from other schools (30)
Living in area and attending this school (452)
Outgoing to other schools (65)
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Inter-District
CLASS
Harvest
Herndon-Barstow
Houghton-Kearney
Liddell
Madison
McKinley
Polk
River Bluff
Saroyan
Steinbeck
Teague
Tilley
8
0
2
0
3
0
1
4
4
0
0
4
3
9
0
3
2
3
0
3
4
4
17
5
2
8
4
10
Incoming Outgoing
Students
Roosevelt
Transfer Students
December 2017 Page 34
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
District Loading Standards
Traditional School
All Portables Loaded
Classroom Count = 28
Grades Served = K - 6
Classroom Needs TimelineProjected
Total Annual Spec. Ed. Facility Unhoused Annual CR Total CR's Available Housing
Year Students* Change Students Capacity Students Needed Needed Seats Units
17/18 490 9 0 786 0 0 -11 296
18/19 483 -7 0 786 0 0 -11 303 0
19/20 487 4 0 786 0 0 -11 299 0
20/21 478 -9 0 786 0 0 -10 308 57
21/22 482 4 0 786 0 0 -10 304 79
22/23 509 27 0 786 0 0 -10 277 95
23/24 533 24 0 786 0 0 -9 253 117
* Based on Students Attending (Squares on Graph)
Classroom Count = 28
522 486 481 490 483 487 478 482
509 533
Capacity
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24
Capacity & Projected Enrollment Roosevelt
Students attending(History = CBEDS) Students living in attendance area School Capacity = 786
Weighted Attendance Factors Current 18/19 Net
YEAR: 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 Average Intra Inter Enrollment Projection Change
Grade
T K 19 18 8 17 18 18 0
K 62 59 75 72 -3 16 -3 1 -8.3% 0.0% 66 65 -1
1 74 68 55 62 6 -4 -13 -3 3.2% 4.8% 67 73 6
2 66 85 67 53 11 -1 -2 1 -7.5% 1.9% 50 59 9
3 76 70 87 77 4 2 10 6 -2.6% 1.3% 76 57 -19
4 79 80 62 88 4 -8 1 -2 -10.2% 1.1% 80 66 -14
5 65 90 77 70 11 -3 8 5 -12.9% 2.9% 63 85 22
6 70 69 84 78 4 -6 1 -1 -10.3% 0.0% 70 60 -10
Totals 511 539 515 517 5.3 -0.6 0.3 1.0 -6.9% 1.7% 490 483 -7
Historic CohortsStudents in boundary
Roosevelt
December 2017 Page 35
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
LiddellLiddellLiddellLiddellLiddellLiddellLiddellLiddellLiddell
River BluffRiver BluffRiver BluffRiver BluffRiver BluffRiver BluffRiver BluffRiver BluffRiver Bluff
Herndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-Barstow
SaroyanSaroyanSaroyanSaroyanSaroyanSaroyanSaroyanSaroyanSaroyan
Saroyan
Student Legend
Incoming from other Districts (21)
Incoming from other schools (83)
Living in area and attending this school (641)
Outgoing to other schools (51)
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Inter-District
Biola-Pershing
Harvest
Herndon-Barstow
Liddell
McKinley
Polk
River Bluff
Roosevelt
Steinbeck
Teague
21
11
6
14
3
11
1
9
2
18
8
0
0
3
4
10
0
2
32
0
0
0
Incoming Outgoing
Students
Saroyan
Transfer Students
December 2017 Page 36
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
District Loading Standards
Traditional School
All Portables Loaded
Classroom Count = 33
Grades Served = K - 6
Classroom Needs TimelineProjected
Total Annual Spec. Ed. Facility Unhoused Annual CR Total CR's Available Housing
Year Students* Change Students Capacity Students Needed Needed Seats Units
17/18 745 37 0 910 0 0 -6 165
18/19 745 0 0 910 0 0 -6 165 0
19/20 749 4 0 910 0 0 -5 161 0
20/21 771 22 0 910 0 0 -5 139 63
21/22 790 19 0 910 0 0 -4 120 63
22/23 806 16 0 910 0 0 -4 104 23
23/24 795 -11 0 910 0 0 -5 115 0
* Based on Students Attending (Squares on Graph)
Classroom Count = 33
715 709 708 745 745 749 771 790 806 795
Capacity
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24
Capacity & Projected Enrollment Saroyan
Students attending(History = CBEDS) Students living in attendance area School Capacity = 910
Weighted Attendance Factors Current 18/19 Net
YEAR: 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 Average Intra Inter Enrollment Projection Change
Grade
T K 16 26 18 25 23 24 1
K 95 81 104 95 -14 23 -9 1 3.2% 1.1% 99 102 3
1 85 93 82 105 -2 1 1 1 2.9% 3.8% 112 103 -9
2 116 88 91 85 3 -2 3 1 11.8% 1.2% 96 117 21
3 98 109 90 98 -7 2 7 3 9.2% 3.1% 110 100 -10
4 114 96 96 88 -2 -13 -2 -6 3.4% 3.4% 94 98 4
5 108 119 94 97 5 -2 1 1 0.0% 4.1% 101 93 -8
6 124 107 111 99 -1 -8 5 0 6.1% 5.1% 110 108 -2
Totals 756 719 686 692 -2.6 0.1 0.9 0.1 5.2% 3.1% 745 745 0
Historic CohortsStudents in boundary
Saroyan
December 2017 Page 37
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
McKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyPolkPolkPolkPolkPolkPolkPolkPolkPolk
TeagueTeagueTeagueTeagueTeagueTeagueTeagueTeagueTeague
HarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvest
SteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeck
Steinbeck
Student Legend
Incoming from other Districts (14)
Incoming from other schools (41)
Living in area and attending this school (715)
Outgoing to other schools (71)
0 4 8 12 16 20
Inter-District
CLASS
Harvest
Herndon-Barstow
Liddell
Madison
McKinley
Polk
River Bluff
Roosevelt
Saroyan
Teague
Tilley
14
0
10
1
0
2
10
1
0
8
0
5
4
0
1
8
0
8
4
3
9
1
4
18
14
1
Incoming Outgoing
Students
Steinbeck
Transfer Students
December 2017 Page 38
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
District Loading Standards
Traditional School
All Portables Loaded
Classroom Count = 35
Grades Served = K - 6
Classroom Needs TimelineProjected
Total Annual Spec. Ed. Facility Unhoused Annual CR Total CR's Available Housing
Year Students* Change Students Capacity Students Needed Needed Seats Units
17/18 770 5 0 976 0 0 -7 206
18/19 782 12 0 976 0 0 -6 194 25
19/20 790 8 0 976 0 0 -6 186 0
20/21 792 2 0 976 0 0 -7 184 0
21/22 802 10 0 976 0 0 -7 174 18
22/23 821 19 0 976 0 0 -6 155 50
23/24 818 -3 0 976 0 0 -5 158 50
* Based on Students Attending (Squares on Graph)
Classroom Count = 35
757 775 765 770 782 790 792 802 821 818
Capacity
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24
Capacity & Projected Enrollment Steinbeck
Students attending(History = CBEDS) Students living in attendance area School Capacity = 976
Weighted Attendance Factors Current 18/19 Net
YEAR: 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 Average Intra Inter Enrollment Projection Change
Grade
T K 24 25 21 32 28 30 2
K 95 103 124 108 8 21 -16 2 -6.5% 0.9% 102 108 6
1 94 105 94 120 10 -9 -4 -2 -8.3% 1.7% 112 99 -13
2 113 98 106 101 4 1 7 5 -5.0% 0.0% 96 121 25
3 97 118 101 101 5 3 -5 -1 -4.0% 4.0% 101 101 0
4 118 105 117 103 8 -1 2 2 0.0% 1.0% 104 105 1
5 95 132 104 111 14 -1 -6 -1 -2.7% 0.9% 109 101 -8
6 93 93 114 110 -2 -18 6 -3 2.7% 4.5% 118 117 -1
Totals 729 779 781 786 6.7 -0.6 -2.3 0.3 -3.4% 1.9% 770 782 12
Historic CohortsStudents in boundary
Steinbeck
December 2017 Page 39
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
SteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeck
Herndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-Barstow
TeagueTeagueTeagueTeagueTeagueTeagueTeagueTeagueTeague
HarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvest
Teague
Student Legend
Incoming from other Districts (2)
Incoming from other schools (25)
Living in area and attending this school (686)
Outgoing to other schools (79)
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32
Inter-District
Biola-Pershing
CLASS
Harvest
Herndon-Barstow
Houghton-Kearney
Liddell
Madison
McKinley
Polk
River Bluff
Roosevelt
Saroyan
Steinbeck
2
2
0
2
1
0
0
0
1
1
0
4
0
14
0
1
1
29
4
1
7
6
2
11
1
3
8
5
Incoming Outgoing
Students
Teague
Transfer Students
December 2017 Page 40
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
District Loading Standards
Traditional School
All Portables Loaded
Classroom Count = 32
Grades Served = K - 6
Classroom Needs TimelineProjected
Total Annual Spec. Ed. Facility Unhoused Annual CR Total CR's Available Housing
Year Students* Change Students Capacity Students Needed Needed Seats Units
17/18 713 -16 0 902 0 0 -7 189
18/19 702 -11 0 902 0 0 -7 200 15
19/20 687 -15 0 902 0 0 -7 215 0
20/21 651 -36 0 902 0 0 -9 251 0
21/22 650 -1 0 902 0 0 -8 252 10
22/23 648 -2 0 902 0 0 -9 254 18
23/24 647 -1 0 902 0 0 -9 255 10
* Based on Students Attending (Squares on Graph)
Classroom Count = 32
773
710 729 713 702 687 651 650 648 647
Capacity
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24
Capacity & Projected Enrollment Teague
Students attending(History = CBEDS) Students living in attendance area School Capacity = 902
Weighted Attendance Factors Current 18/19 Net
YEAR: 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 Average Intra Inter Enrollment Projection Change
Grade
T K 29 19 19 18 18 21 3
K 96 104 95 86 8 -9 -9 1 -14.0% 0.0% 74 89 15
1 119 100 99 96 4 -5 1 0 -4.2% 0.0% 92 82 -10
2 121 121 98 101 2 -2 2 1 -5.0% 0.0% 96 92 -4
3 120 116 123 91 -5 2 -7 -4 -2.2% 1.1% 90 96 6
4 118 122 120 131 2 4 8 6 -3.8% 0.8% 127 94 -33
5 126 118 117 121 0 -5 1 -1 -9.9% 0.0% 109 118 9
6 125 127 121 121 1 3 4 3 -11.6% 0.0% 107 110 3
Totals 854 827 792 765 1.7 -1.7 0.0 0.9 -7.2% 0.3% 713 702 -11
Historic CohortsStudents in boundary
Teague
December 2017 Page 41
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
MadisonMadisonMadisonMadisonMadisonMadisonMadisonMadisonMadison
TilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyTilley
McKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinley
Tilley
Student Legend
Incoming from other Districts (10)
Incoming from other schools (58)
Living in area and attending this school (374)
Outgoing to other schools (310)
0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280
Inter-District
Harvest
Herndon-Barstow
Houghton-Kearney
Liddell
Madison
McKinley
Polk
Roosevelt
Steinbeck
10
2
1
0
0
7
18
19
10
1
0
1
0
3
4
244
29
16
9
4
Incoming Outgoing
Students
Tilley
Transfer Students
December 2017 Page 42
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
District Loading Standards
Traditional School
All Portables Loaded
Classroom Count = 17
Grades Served = K - 6
Classroom Needs TimelineProjected
Total Annual Spec. Ed. Facility Unhoused Annual CR Total CR's Available Housing
Year Students* Change Students Capacity Students Needed Needed Seats Units
17/18 442 28 0 454 0 0 0 12
18/19 454 12 0 454 0 0 0 0 0
19/20 477 23 0 454 23 1 1 0 17
20/21 491 14 0 454 37 0 1 0 17
21/22 504 13 0 454 50 1 2 0 20
22/23 524 20 0 454 70 0 2 0 20
23/24 536 12 0 454 82 1 3 0 30
* Based on Students Attending (Squares on Graph)
Classroom Count = 17
0
428 414 442 454
477 491 504 524 536
Capacity
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24
Capacity & Projected Enrollment Tilley
Students attending(History = CBEDS) Students living in attendance area School Capacity = 454
Weighted Attendance Factors Current 18/19 Net
YEAR: 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 Average Intra Inter Enrollment Projection Change
Grade
T K 17 29 21 19 16 17 1
K 95 85 111 103 -10 26 -8 2 -28.2% 1.0% 75 83 8
1 90 106 91 109 11 6 -2 3 -36.7% 0.0% 69 66 -3
2 91 82 90 85 -8 -16 -6 -10 -23.5% 1.2% 66 80 14
3 109 90 81 89 -1 -1 -1 -1 -15.7% 4.5% 79 74 -5
4 93 112 86 90 3 -4 9 4 -62.2% 1.1% 35 38 3
5 79 99 101 96 6 -11 10 2 -40.6% 2.1% 59 55 -4
6 90 87 91 93 8 -8 -8 -5 -54.8% 1.1% 43 41 -2
Totals 664 690 672 684 1.3 -1.1 -0.9 -0.7 -37.4% 1.6% 442 454 12
Historic CohortsStudents in boundary
Tilley
December 2017 Page 43
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
Glacier PointGlacier PointGlacier PointGlacier PointGlacier PointGlacier PointGlacier PointGlacier PointGlacier Point
Houghton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-Kearney
El CapitanEl CapitanEl CapitanEl CapitanEl CapitanEl CapitanEl CapitanEl CapitanEl Capitan
El Capitan
Student Legend
Incoming from other Districts (10)
Incoming from other schools (14)
Living in area and attending this school (688)
Outgoing to other schools (65)
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Inter-District
CLASS
Glacier Point
Houghton-Kearney
Pathways CDS
Rio Vista
10
0
10
2
0
2
0
3
35
6
1
20
Incoming Outgoing
Students
El Capitan
Transfer Students
December 2017 Page 44
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
District Loading Standards
Traditional School
All Portables Loaded
Classroom Count = 33
Grades Served = 7 - 8
Classroom Needs TimelineProjected
Total Annual Spec. Ed. Facility Unhoused Annual CR Total CR's Available Housing
Year Students* Change Students Capacity Students Needed Needed Seats Units
17/18 712 -3 0 1129 0 0 -12 417
18/19 738 26 0 1129 0 0 -11 391 40
19/20 751 13 0 1129 0 0 -11 378 78
20/21 716 -35 0 1129 0 0 -12 413 98
21/22 719 3 0 1129 0 0 -12 410 136
22/23 774 55 0 1129 0 0 -10 355 145
23/24 789 15 0 1129 0 0 -10 340 185
* Based on Students Attending (Squares on Graph)
Classroom Count = 33
663 699 715 712 738 751
716 719 774 789
Capacity
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24
Capacity & Projected Enrollment El Capitan
Students attending(History = CBEDS) Students living in attendance area School Capacity = 1129
Weighted Attendance Factors Current 18/19 Net
YEAR: 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 Average Intra Inter Enrollment Projection Change
Grade
T K 77 84 93 83 0 0 0
K 383 364 384 412 -19 20 28 6 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
1 335 381 393 374 -2 29 -10 4 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
2 358 333 374 377 -2 -7 -16 -11 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
3 393 359 339 365 1 6 -9 -2 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
4 375 401 370 337 8 11 -2 4 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
5 366 373 394 384 -2 -7 14 4 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
6 383 388 392 398 22 19 4 12 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
7 359 397 377 387 14 -11 -5 -4 -5.9% 1.6% 370 379 9
8 343 368 390 366 9 -7 -11 -6 -7.7% 1.1% 342 359 17
Totals 3372 3448 3506 3483 3.2 5.9 -0.8 0.8 -6.8% 1.3% 712 738 26
Historic CohortsStudents in boundary
El Capitan
December 2017 Page 45
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
Rio VistaRio VistaRio VistaRio VistaRio VistaRio VistaRio VistaRio VistaRio Vista
Houghton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-Kearney
Glacier PointGlacier PointGlacier PointGlacier PointGlacier PointGlacier PointGlacier PointGlacier PointGlacier Point
El CapitanEl CapitanEl CapitanEl CapitanEl CapitanEl CapitanEl CapitanEl CapitanEl Capitan
Glacier Point
Student Legend
Incoming from other Districts (7)
Incoming from other schools (43)
Living in area and attending this school (868)
Outgoing to other schools (38)
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Inter-District
CLASS
El Capitan
Houghton-Kearney
Pathways CDS
Rio Vista
7
0
35
4
0
4
0
5
10
3
3
17
Incoming Outgoing
Students
Glacier Point
Transfer Students
December 2017 Page 46
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
District Loading Standards
Traditional School
All Portables Loaded
Classroom Count = 31
Grades Served = 7 - 8
Classroom Needs TimelineProjected
Total Annual Spec. Ed. Facility Unhoused Annual CR Total CR's Available Housing
Year Students* Change Students Capacity Students Needed Needed Seats Units
17/18 918 25 0 1060 0 0 -4 142
18/19 950 32 0 1060 0 0 -3 110 60
19/20 933 -17 0 1060 0 0 -4 127 50
20/21 937 4 0 1060 0 0 -4 123 117
21/22 935 -2 0 1060 0 0 -4 125 207
22/23 906 -29 0 1060 0 0 -5 154 283
23/24 971 65 0 1060 0 0 -3 89 337
* Based on Students Attending (Squares on Graph)
Classroom Count = 31
898 929
893 918 950 933 937 935
906 971
Capacity
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24
Capacity & Projected Enrollment Glacier Point
Students attending(History = CBEDS) Students living in attendance area School Capacity = 1060
Weighted Attendance Factors Current 18/19 Net
YEAR: 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 Average Intra Inter Enrollment Projection Change
Grade
T K 92 91 73 105 0 0 0
K 371 379 437 381 8 58 -56 6 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
1 398 401 363 425 30 -16 -12 -3 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
2 401 414 396 380 16 -5 17 10 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
3 435 413 428 398 12 14 2 8 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
4 430 446 412 439 11 -1 11 7 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
5 411 454 435 418 24 -11 6 3 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
6 398 417 439 449 6 -15 14 3 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
7 457 426 436 459 28 19 20 21 1.3% 0.7% 468 480 12
8 410 461 429 447 4 3 11 7 -0.2% 0.9% 450 470 20
Totals 3803 3902 3848 3901 15.4 5.1 1.4 6.9 0.5% 0.8% 918 950 32
Historic CohortsStudents in boundary
Glacier Point
December 2017 Page 47
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
Rio VistaRio VistaRio VistaRio VistaRio VistaRio VistaRio VistaRio VistaRio Vista
Glacier PointGlacier PointGlacier PointGlacier PointGlacier PointGlacier PointGlacier PointGlacier PointGlacier Point
Rio Vista
Student Legend
Incoming from other Districts (16)
Incoming from other schools (42)
Living in area and attending this school (805)
Outgoing to other schools (9)
0 4 8 12 16 20
Inter-District
CLASS
El Capitan
Glacier Point
Houghton-Kearney
Pathways CDS
16
0
20
17
5
0
0
1
2
4
0
2
Incoming Outgoing
Students
Rio Vista
Transfer Students
December 2017 Page 48
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
District Loading Standards
Traditional School
All Portables Loaded
Classroom Count = 40
Grades Served = 7 - 8
Classroom Needs TimelineProjected
Total Annual Spec. Ed. Facility Unhoused Annual CR Total CR's Available Housing
Year Students* Change Students Capacity Students Needed Needed Seats Units
17/18 863 24 0 1368 0 0 -15 505
18/19 857 -6 0 1368 0 0 -15 511 53
19/20 871 14 0 1368 0 0 -15 497 25
20/21 882 11 0 1368 0 0 -14 486 93
21/22 878 -4 0 1368 0 0 -14 490 93
22/23 882 4 0 1368 0 0 -14 486 73
23/24 926 44 0 1368 0 0 -13 442 39
* Based on Students Attending (Squares on Graph)
Classroom Count = 40
833 818 839 863 857 871 882 878 882 926
Capacity
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24
Capacity & Projected Enrollment Rio Vista
Students attending(History = CBEDS) Students living in attendance area School Capacity = 1368
Weighted Attendance Factors Current 18/19 Net
YEAR: 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 Average Intra Inter Enrollment Projection Change
Grade
T K 88 87 85 83 0 0 0
K 339 350 385 389 11 35 4 6 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
1 338 357 350 402 18 0 17 12 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
2 397 356 359 363 18 2 13 10 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
3 356 400 359 376 3 3 17 10 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
4 370 355 385 371 -1 -15 12 1 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
5 403 382 364 396 12 9 11 11 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
6 369 397 385 387 -6 3 23 12 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
7 395 372 410 408 3 13 23 16 2.7% 1.2% 424 419 -5
8 382 391 372 406 -4 0 -4 -3 5.4% 2.7% 439 438 -1
Totals 3437 3447 3454 3581 6.0 5.6 12.9 8.3 4.1% 2.0% 863 857 -6
Historic CohortsStudents in boundary
Rio Vista
December 2017 Page 49
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
Central HighCentral HighCentral HighCentral HighCentral HighCentral HighCentral HighCentral HighCentral High
Central High
Student Legend
Incoming from other Districts (122)
Living in area and attending this school (4052)
Outgoing to other schools (333)
0 40 80 120 160 200 240
Inter-District
CLASS
Pathways CDS
Pershing Cont
122
0
0
0
0
201
19
113
Incoming Outgoing
Students
Central High
Transfer Students
December 2017 Page 50
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
District Loading Standards
Traditional School
All Portables Loaded
Classroom Count = 145
Grades Served = 9 - 12
Classroom Needs TimelineProjected
Total Annual Spec. Ed. Facility Unhoused Annual CR Total CR's Available Housing
Year Students* Change Students Capacity Students Needed Needed Seats Units
17/18 4169 -32 0 4959 0 0 -23 790
18/19 4277 108 0 4959 0 0 -20 682 153
19/20 4388 111 0 4959 0 0 -17 571 153
20/21 4471 83 0 4959 0 0 -14 488 308
21/22 4567 96 0 4959 0 0 -11 392 489
22/23 4618 51 0 4959 0 0 -10 341 556
23/24 4665 47 0 4959 0 0 -9 294 646
* Based on Students Attending (Squares on Graph)
Classroom Count = 145
4160 4142 4201 4169 4277 4388 4471 4567 4618 4665
Capacity
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24
Capacity & Projected Enrollment Central High
Students attending(History = CBEDS) Students living in attendance area School Capacity = 4959
Weighted Attendance Factors Current 18/19 Net
YEAR: 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 Average Intra Inter Enrollment Projection Change
Grade
T K 262 270 256 275 0 0 0
K 1113 1113 1223 1202 0 110 -21 18 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
1 1100 1155 1126 1219 42 13 -4 9 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
2 1178 1131 1143 1141 31 -12 15 9 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
3 1208 1191 1154 1157 13 23 14 17 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
4 1195 1228 1186 1172 20 -5 18 11 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
5 1208 1229 1217 1221 34 -11 35 20 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
6 1174 1229 1236 1259 21 7 42 27 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
7 1234 1221 1252 1279 47 23 43 37 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
8 1157 1241 1220 1250 7 -1 -2 0 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
9 1138 1128 1186 1173 -29 -55 -47 -47 -1.5% 2.5% 1184 1217 33
10 1143 1125 1082 1155 -13 -46 -31 -33 -3.6% 2.7% 1144 1132 -12
11 1063 1123 1044 1055 -20 -81 -27 -44 -10.5% 3.2% 978 1036 58
12 1024 1059 1111 1002 -4 -12 -42 -26 -16.7% 2.8% 863 892 29
Totals 15197 15443 15436 15560 11.5 -3.6 -0.5 -0.2 -8.1% 2.8% 4169 4277 108
Historic CohortsStudents in boundary
Central High
December 2017 Page 51
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
District Loading Standards
Traditional School
All Portables Loaded
Classroom Count = 9
Grades Served = 9 - 12
Classroom Needs TimelineProjected
Total Annual Spec. Ed. Facility Unhoused Annual CR Total CR's Available Housing
Year Students* Change Students Capacity Students Needed Needed Seats Units
17/18 117 -4 0 225 0 0 -4 108
18/19 121 4 0 225 0 0 -4 104 153
19/20 125 4 0 225 0 0 -4 100 153
20/21 126 1 0 225 0 0 -4 99 308
21/22 130 4 0 225 0 0 -4 95 489
22/23 133 3 0 225 0 0 -4 92 556
23/24 135 2 0 225 0 0 -4 90 646
* Based on Students Attending (Squares on Graph)
Classroom Count = 9
125 127 121 117 121 125 126 130 133 135
Capacity
0
50
100
150
200
250
14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24
Capacity & Projected Enrollment Pershing Cont
Students attending(History = CBEDS) Students living in attendance area School Capacity = 225
Weighted Attendance Factors Current 18/19 Net
YEAR: 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 Average Intra Inter Enrollment Projection Change
Grade
T K 262 270 256 275 0 0 0
K 1113 1113 1223 1202 0 110 -21 18 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
1 1100 1155 1126 1219 42 13 -4 9 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
2 1178 1131 1143 1141 31 -12 15 9 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
3 1208 1191 1154 1157 13 23 14 17 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
4 1195 1228 1186 1172 20 -5 18 11 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
5 1208 1229 1217 1221 34 -11 35 20 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
6 1174 1229 1236 1259 21 7 42 27 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
7 1234 1221 1252 1279 47 23 43 37 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
8 1157 1241 1220 1250 7 -1 -2 0 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
9 1138 1128 1186 1173 -29 -55 -47 -47 0.0% 0.1% 1 1 0
10 1143 1125 1082 1155 -13 -46 -31 -33 0.0% 0.5% 6 6 0
11 1063 1123 1044 1055 -20 -81 -27 -44 0.0% 4.2% 44 46 2
12 1024 1059 1111 1002 -4 -12 -42 -26 0.0% 6.6% 66 68 2
Totals 15197 15443 15436 15560 11.5 -3.6 -0.5 -0.2 0.0% 2.8% 117 121 4
Historic CohortsStudents in boundary
Pershing Cont
December 2017 Page 52
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
District Loading Standards
Traditional School
All Portables Loaded
Classroom Count = 7
Grades Served = 1 - 12
Classroom Needs TimelineProjected
Total Annual Spec. Ed. Facility Unhoused Annual CR Total CR's Available Housing
Year Students* Change Students Capacity Students Needed Needed Seats Units
17/18 218 -8 0 239 0 0 -1 21
18/19 224 6 0 239 0 0 -1 15 153
19/20 231 7 0 239 0 0 -1 8 153
20/21 233 2 0 239 0 0 -1 6 308
21/22 240 7 0 239 1 0 0 0 489
22/23 245 5 0 239 6 0 0 0 556
23/24 249 4 0 239 10 0 0 0 646
* Based on Students Attending (Squares on Graph)
Classroom Count = 7
233 228 226 218 224 231 233 240 245 249
Capacity
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24
Capacity & Projected Enrollment CLASS
Students attending(History = CBEDS) Students living in attendance area School Capacity = 239
Weighted Attendance Factors Current 18/19 Net
YEAR: 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 Average Intra Inter Enrollment Projection Change
Grade
T K 262 270 256 275 0 0 0
K 1113 1113 1223 1202 0 110 -21 18 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
1 1100 1155 1126 1219 42 13 -4 9 0.0% 0.2% 2 2 0
2 1178 1131 1143 1141 31 -12 15 9 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
3 1208 1191 1154 1157 13 23 14 17 0.0% 0.1% 1 1 0
4 1195 1228 1186 1172 20 -5 18 11 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
5 1208 1229 1217 1221 34 -11 35 20 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
6 1174 1229 1236 1259 21 7 42 27 0.0% 0.2% 2 2 0
7 1234 1221 1252 1279 47 23 43 37 0.0% 0.3% 4 4 0
8 1157 1241 1220 1250 7 -1 -2 0 0.0% 0.4% 5 5 0
9 1138 1128 1186 1173 -29 -55 -47 -47 0.0% 1.1% 13 13 0
10 1143 1125 1082 1155 -13 -46 -31 -33 0.0% 2.3% 27 27 0
11 1063 1123 1044 1055 -20 -81 -27 -44 0.0% 6.0% 63 66 3
12 1024 1059 1111 1002 -4 -12 -42 -26 0.0% 10.1% 101 104 3
Totals 15197 15443 15436 15560 11.5 -3.6 -0.5 -0.2 0.0% 2.3% 218 224 6
Historic CohortsStudents in boundary
CLASS
December 2017 Page 53
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
District Loading Standards
Traditional School
All Portables Loaded
Classroom Count = 9
Grades Served = 1 - 12
Classroom Needs TimelineProjected
Total Annual Spec. Ed. Facility Unhoused Annual CR Total CR's Available Housing
Year Students* Change Students Capacity Students Needed Needed Seats Units
17/18 29 6 0 307 0 0 -8 278
18/19 29 0 0 307 0 0 -8 278 153
19/20 29 0 0 307 0 0 -8 278 153
20/21 29 0 0 307 0 0 -8 278 308
21/22 31 2 0 307 0 0 -8 276 489
22/23 32 1 0 307 0 0 -8 275 556
23/24 31 -1 0 307 0 0 -8 276 646
* Based on Students Attending (Squares on Graph)
Classroom Count = 9
32 29 23 29 29 29 29 31 32 31
Capacity
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24
Capacity & Projected Enrollment Pathway Community Day School
Students attending(History = CBEDS) Students living in attendance area School Capacity = 307
Weighted Attendance Factors Current 18/19 Net
YEAR: 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 Average Intra Inter Enrollment Projection Change
Grade
T K 262 270 256 275 0 0 0
K 1113 1113 1223 1202 0 110 -21 18 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
1 1100 1155 1126 1219 42 13 -4 9 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
2 1178 1131 1143 1141 31 -12 15 9 0.1% 0.0% 1 1 0
3 1208 1191 1154 1157 13 23 14 17 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
4 1195 1228 1186 1172 20 -5 18 11 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0
5 1208 1229 1217 1221 34 -11 35 20 0.2% 0.0% 2 2 0
6 1174 1229 1236 1259 21 7 42 27 0.1% 0.0% 1 1 0
7 1234 1221 1252 1279 47 23 43 37 0.0% 0.1% 1 1 0
8 1157 1241 1220 1250 7 -1 -2 0 0.0% 0.4% 5 5 0
9 1138 1128 1186 1173 -29 -55 -47 -47 0.0% 0.2% 2 2 0
10 1143 1125 1082 1155 -13 -46 -31 -33 0.0% 0.7% 8 8 0
11 1063 1123 1044 1055 -20 -81 -27 -44 0.0% 0.4% 4 4 0
12 1024 1059 1111 1002 -4 -12 -42 -26 0.0% 0.5% 5 5 0
Totals 15197 15443 15436 15560 11.5 -3.6 -0.5 -0.2 0.0% 0.2% 29 29 0
Historic CohortsStudents in boundary
Pathway Community Day School
December 2017 Page 54
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
Student Attendance Matrix
This chart summarizes the transfers in and out of each elementary school as were seen by the yellow dots and blue dots on the school attendance maps. In addition, the data has been analyzed to determine the total in-flow and out-flow rates for each school. The school with the largest in-flow rate is Madison Elementary and the school with the largest out-flow rate is Tilley Elementary.
ELEMENTARY SCHOOL ATTENDANCE MATRIX
SCHOOL: Bio
la-P
ersh
ing
Har
vest
Her
nd
on
-Bar
sto
w
Ho
ugh
ton
-Kea
rney
Lid
del
l
Mad
iso
n
Mck
inle
y
Po
lk
Riv
er B
luff
Ro
ose
velt
Saro
yan
Stei
nb
eck
Teag
ue
Tille
y
Tota
l Re
sid
ing
AREA
Inter-District 3 9 7 13 25 24 13 4 16 8 21 14 2 10 169
Biola-Pershing 227 7 3 2 1 0 0 0 4 0 11 0 2 0 257
Harvest 0 631 5 4 4 0 2 2 0 2 6 10 2 2 670
Herndon-Barstow 3 8 624 1 46 1 4 4 28 0 14 1 1 1 736
Houghton-Kearney 1 1 0 186 1 4 0 3 0 3 0 0 0 0 199
Liddell 0 2 2 0 579 0 0 2 41 0 3 0 0 0 629
Madison 0 4 0 6 0 376 9 4 3 1 0 2 0 7 412
McKinley 0 10 2 3 3 23 758 26 2 4 11 10 1 18 871
Polk 0 7 2 4 0 9 6 709 0 4 1 1 1 19 763
River Bluff 0 3 4 1 26 0 0 2 665 0 9 0 0 0 710
Roosevelt 0 2 3 0 3 4 4 17 5 452 2 8 4 10 514
Saroyan 0 3 4 0 10 0 0 2 32 0 641 0 0 0 692
Steinbeck 0 8 0 0 8 4 3 9 1 4 18 715 14 1 785
Teague 1 29 4 1 7 6 2 11 1 3 8 5 686 0 764
Tilley 0 1 0 3 4 244 29 16 0 9 0 4 0 374 684
Correction Factor* 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1
Total Attending 235 724 660 224 717 695 830 810 799 490 745 770 713 442 8,854
Intra-Ins 5 85 29 25 113 295 59 98 117 30 83 41 25 58 1,063
Inter-Ins 3 9 7 13 25 24 13 4 16 8 21 14 2 10 169
Total In-Flow 8 94 36 38 138 319 72 102 133 38 104 55 27 68 1,232
Intra-Outs 30 39 112 13 50 36 113 54 45 62 51 70 78 310 1,063
Net Transfers -22 55 -76 25 88 283 -41 48 88 -24 53 -15 -51 -242 169
% In Flow Students 3.4% 13.0% 5.5% 17.0% 19.2% 45.9% 8.7% 12.6% 16.6% 7.8% 14.0% 7.1% 3.8% 15.4% 13.9%
% Out Flow Students 11.7% 5.8% 15.2% 6.5% 7.9% 8.7% 13.0% 7.1% 6.3% 12.1% 7.4% 8.9% 10.2% 45.3% 12.0%
* The correction factor represents the difference between the student data download counts and the actual CBEDS counts.
SCHOOL OF ATTENDANCE
R
E
S
I
D
E
N
C
E
December 2017 Page 55
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
Student Residency and Enrollment Comparison
This chart compares each individual elementary school enrollment to the students that reside within the school attendance boundary. Utilizing this data helps make it easy to see which schools have the largest and smallest enrollments as well as which boundaries are most populated. Schools with more students enrolled than those living in the boundary have a net transfer into the school. This is typically found at schools with special programs such as Gate or Dual Immersion, schools housing students from overcrowded or Program Improvement (PI) schools, and schools with more capacity than the student population living in the boundary.
25
7
67
0 73
6
21
0
62
9
41
2
87
1
76
3
71
0
51
7
69
2 78
6
76
5
68
4
23
5
72
4
66
0
23
3
71
7
69
5
83
0
81
0
79
9
49
0
74
5
77
0
71
3
44
2
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Bio
la-P
ers
hin
g
Har
vest
He
rnd
on
-B
arst
ow
Ho
ugh
ton
-K
ear
ne
y
Lid
de
ll
Mad
iso
n
McK
inle
y
Po
lk
Riv
er
Blu
ff
Ro
ose
velt
Saro
yan
Ste
inb
eck
Teag
ue
Tille
y
Elementary SchoolsStudent Residents & Enrollment
Boundary
Enrollment
December 2017 Page 56
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
District Projections This graph shows a summary of the projections for the entire District. It shows the current enrollment for 2017/18, the historic enrollment for the past nine (9) years, and the projected enrollment for the next six (6) years. The end result is a total of 17,445 students in the District in 2023/24.
4378 4514 4636 4663 4890 4932 4971 4936 4990 5084 5245 5429 5408 5422 5403 5390
3341 3478 3470 3447 3482 3613 3639 3762 3709 3735 3695 3664 3773 3897 4087 4226
2359 2333 2321 24132455 2404 2453 2514 2524 2565 2617 2629 2610 2607 2638 2772
4212 4222 4390 43554419 4556 4500 4481 4549 4510 4628 4750 4836 4945 5005
505714290 1454714817 14878
1526115537 15584 15717 15772 15894
1618516472 16627 16871
1713317445
08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24
Stu
den
ts
YEAR
10 Year Enrollment History &6 Year Enrollment Projection
TK-3 4-6 7-8 9-12 SDC
December 2017 Page 57
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
One Year Enrollment Projection Summary
The projection for next year (2018/19) shows an increase of 291 students. The largest declines will be seen at grades 5 and 10. The largest increases are at grades 2 and 11. These projections assume the transfers between schools remain consistent. If changes in facilities, schedules, programs or policies are made, then the patterns may be impacted.
School T K K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL
Biola-Pershing 14 29 36 40 22 38 28 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 235
Harvest 31 120 87 109 92 95 97 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 731
Herndon-Barstow 20 92 95 100 102 91 96 101 0 0 0 0 0 0 697
Houghton-Kearney 4 26 24 20 26 22 28 25 31 26 0 0 0 0 232
Liddell 27 115 96 110 103 89 96 84 0 0 0 0 0 0 720
Madison 12 103 111 80 83 111 94 119 0 0 0 0 0 0 713
McKinley 24 116 138 88 126 97 101 129 0 0 0 0 0 0 819
Polk 30 115 104 126 106 131 97 127 0 0 0 0 0 0 836
River Bluff 20 108 122 106 105 118 121 135 0 0 0 0 0 0 835
Roosevelt 18 65 73 59 57 66 85 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 483
Saroyan 24 102 103 117 100 98 93 108 0 0 0 0 0 0 745
Steinbeck 30 108 99 121 101 105 101 117 0 0 0 0 0 0 782
Teague 21 89 82 92 96 94 118 110 0 0 0 0 0 0 702
Tilley 17 83 66 80 74 38 55 41 0 0 0 0 0 0 454
El Capitan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 379 359 0 0 0 0 738
Glacier Point 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 480 470 0 0 0 0 950
Rio Vista 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 419 438 0 0 0 0 857
Central High 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,217 1,132 1,036 892 4,277
Pershing Cont 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 46 68 121
CLASS 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 2 4 5 13 27 66 104 224
Pathway Community Day School 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 1 1 5 2 8 4 5 29
NPS 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 5
Totals 292 1,271 1,238 1,250 1,194 1,193 1,214 1,288 1,314 1,303 1,234 1,173 1,152 1,069 16,185
Current CBEDS 277 1,216 1,236 1,162 1,193 1,195 1,243 1,297 1,294 1,271 1,201 1,185 1,089 1,035 15,894
Net Change 15 55 2 88 1 -2 -29 -9 20 32 33 -12 63 34 291
Cohort Change 22 14 32 0 19 45 17 9 -37 -28 -33 -20
YEAR 18/19, 1 Year Proj.
Central Unified School DistrictEnrollment Projections
December 2017 Page 58
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
Enrollment Projection Summary by Grade
Current
Enrollment
Grade 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24
TK 277 292 299 274 276 276 276
K 1,216 1,271 1,302 1,193 1,204 1,235 1,272
1 1,236 1,238 1,294 1,332 1,228 1,238 1,273
2 1,162 1,250 1,252 1,316 1,356 1,255 1,267
3 1,193 1,194 1,282 1,293 1,358 1,399 1,302
4 1,195 1,193 1,192 1,288 1,303 1,371 1,416
5 1,243 1,214 1,212 1,219 1,318 1,337 1,408
6 1,297 1,288 1,260 1,266 1,276 1,379 1,402
7 1,294 1,314 1,306 1,287 1,298 1,315 1,427
8 1,271 1,303 1,323 1,323 1,309 1,323 1,345
9 1,201 1,234 1,267 1,286 1,286 1,272 1,287
10 1,185 1,173 1,206 1,237 1,267 1,270 1,259
11 1,089 1,152 1,140 1,184 1,216 1,251 1,258
12 1,035 1,069 1,137 1,129 1,176 1,212 1,253
Total TK-3 5,084 5,245 5,429 5,408 5,422 5,403 5,390
Total 4-6 3,735 3,695 3,664 3,773 3,897 4,087 4,226
Total 7-8 2,565 2,617 2,629 2,610 2,607 2,638 2,772
Total 9-12 4,510 4,628 4,750 4,836 4,945 5,005 5,057
District Totals 15,894 16,185 16,472 16,627 16,871 17,133 17,445
Enrollment Projection Summary by Grade
Central Unified School District
December 2017 Page 59
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
Enrollment Projection Summary by School
Current
Enrollment
School 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24
Biola-Pershing 235 235 238 239 231 229 221
Harvest 724 731 765 785 803 820 829
Herndon-Barstow 660 697 715 738 763 780 778
Houghton-Kearney 233 232 236 233 248 259 291
Liddell 717 720 728 715 714 720 719
Madison 695 713 723 735 743 764 804
McKinley 830 819 826 839 863 868 909
Polk 810 836 864 894 903 912 912
River Bluff 799 835 854 867 870 878 882
Roosevelt 490 483 487 478 482 509 533
Saroyan 745 745 749 771 790 806 795
Steinbeck 770 782 790 792 802 821 818
Teague 713 702 687 651 650 648 647
Tilley 442 454 477 491 504 524 536
Elementary Totals 8,863 8,984 9,139 9,228 9,366 9,538 9,674
El Capitan 712 738 751 716 719 774 789
Glacier Point 918 950 933 937 935 906 971
Rio Vista 863 857 871 882 878 882 926
Middle Totals 2,493 2,545 2,555 2,535 2,532 2,562 2,686
Central High 4,169 4,277 4,388 4,471 4,567 4,618 4,665
High Totals 4,169 4,277 4,388 4,471 4,567 4,618 4,665
Pershing Cont 117 121 125 126 130 133 135
CLASS 218 224 231 233 240 245 249
Pathway Community Day School 29 29 29 29 31 32 31
NPS 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Other Totals 369 379 390 393 406 415 420
District Totals 15,894 16,185 16,472 16,627 16,871 17,133 17,445
Annual Change 291 287 155 244 262 312
Central Unified School DistrictEnrollment Projection Summary by School
December 2017 Page 60
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
School Facility Utilization The following chart shows the current and projected utilization rates for each school. It has been color coded with blue representing schools with a utilization rate of under 70%, yellow representing a utilization rate of at least 70% but under 80% and red for the schools that have over 100% utilization.
For 2017, the school with the highest percentage of available space is Roosevelt Elementary and the school that is impacted the most is Tilley Elementary.
School Facility Utilization 2017/18 2023/24 2017/18 2023/24
District Current Projected Current Projected
Elementary Schools Classrooms Capacity Enrollment Enrollment Utilization Utilization
Biola-Pershing 10 273 235 221 86.1% 81.0%
Harvest 33 918 724 829 78.8% 90.3%
Herndon-Barstow 31 860 660 778 76.7% 90.4%
Houghton-Kearney 12 351 233 291 66.4% 83.0%
Liddell 32 876 717 719 81.8% 82.0%
Madison 36 1,010 695 804 68.8% 79.6%
McKinley 35 968 830 909 85.8% 93.9%
Polk 33 918 810 912 88.2% 99.3%
River Bluff 36 1,010 799 882 79.1% 87.4%
Roosevelt 28 786 490 533 62.3% 67.8%
Saroyan 33 910 745 795 81.9% 87.4%
Steinbeck 35 976 770 818 78.9% 83.8%
Teague 32 902 713 647 79.0% 71.7%
Tilley 17 454 442 536 97.3% 118.0%
Sub-Totals 403 11,212 8,863 9,674 79.0% 86.3%
Middle Schools
El Capitan 33 1,129 712 789 63.1% 69.9%
Glacier Point 31 1,060 918 971 86.6% 91.6%
Rio Vista 40 1,368 863 926 63.1% 67.7%
Sub-Totals 104 3,557 2,493 2,686 70.1% 75.5%
High Schools
Central High 145 4,959 4,169 4,665 84.1% 94.1%
Sub-Totals 145 4,959 4,169 4,665 84.1% 94.1%
Other Schools
Pershing Cont 9 225 117 135
CLASS 7 239 218 249
Pathway Community Day School9 307 29 31
NPS 0 0 5 5
Sub-Totals 25 771 369 420
District Totals 677 20,500 15,894 17,445 77.5% 85.1%
December 2017 Page 61
Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18
The color-coded map below shows the six (6) year, 2023/24 projected utilization for the elementary schools.
LiddellLiddellLiddellLiddellLiddellLiddellLiddellLiddellLiddell
(82%)(82%)(82%)(82%)(82%)(82%)(82%)(82%)(82%)
River BluffRiver BluffRiver BluffRiver BluffRiver BluffRiver BluffRiver BluffRiver BluffRiver Bluff
(87.4%)(87.4%)(87.4%)(87.4%)(87.4%)(87.4%)(87.4%)(87.4%)(87.4%)
SaroyanSaroyanSaroyanSaroyanSaroyanSaroyanSaroyanSaroyanSaroyan
(87.4%)(87.4%)(87.4%)(87.4%)(87.4%)(87.4%)(87.4%)(87.4%)(87.4%)
SteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeck
(83.8%)(83.8%)(83.8%)(83.8%)(83.8%)(83.8%)(83.8%)(83.8%)(83.8%)
TeagueTeagueTeagueTeagueTeagueTeagueTeagueTeagueTeague
(71.7%)(71.7%)(71.7%)(71.7%)(71.7%)(71.7%)(71.7%)(71.7%)(71.7%)
TilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyTilley
(118%)(118%)(118%)(118%)(118%)(118%)(118%)(118%)(118%)
McKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinley
(93.9%)(93.9%)(93.9%)(93.9%)(93.9%)(93.9%)(93.9%)(93.9%)(93.9%)
HarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvest
(90.3%)(90.3%)(90.3%)(90.3%)(90.3%)(90.3%)(90.3%)(90.3%)(90.3%)
Houghton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-Kearney
(83%)(83%)(83%)(83%)(83%)(83%)(83%)(83%)(83%)
MadisonMadisonMadisonMadisonMadisonMadisonMadisonMadisonMadison
(79.6%)(79.6%)(79.6%)(79.6%)(79.6%)(79.6%)(79.6%)(79.6%)(79.6%)
PolkPolkPolkPolkPolkPolkPolkPolkPolk
(99.3%)(99.3%)(99.3%)(99.3%)(99.3%)(99.3%)(99.3%)(99.3%)(99.3%)
RooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRoosevelt
(67.8%)(67.8%)(67.8%)(67.8%)(67.8%)(67.8%)(67.8%)(67.8%)(67.8%)
Herndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-Barstow
(90.4%)(90.4%)(90.4%)(90.4%)(90.4%)(90.4%)(90.4%)(90.4%)(90.4%)Biola-PershingBiola-PershingBiola-PershingBiola-PershingBiola-PershingBiola-PershingBiola-PershingBiola-PershingBiola-Pershing
(81%)(81%)(81%)(81%)(81%)(81%)(81%)(81%)(81%)
Projected Utilization Map
Elementary Schools
> 100%> 100%> 100%> 100%> 100%> 100%> 100%> 100%> 100% (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1)
808080808080808080 - - - - - - - - - 100100100100100100100100100%%%%%%%%% (10) (10) (10) (10) (10) (10) (10) (10) (10)
707070707070707070 - - - - - - - - - 808080808080808080%%%%%%%%% (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2)
< 70%< 70%< 70%< 70%< 70%< 70%< 70%< 70%< 70% (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1)