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Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Dissecting the End: Factors that Explain Differences in Time to
Degree and Debt at Graduation
Jonathan Compton, Greg Forbes,Kate Ralston, Darin Wohlgemuth
Enrollment Research TeamIowa State University
November 11, 2013AACRAO - SEM
Chicago, IL
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Enrollment Research Team @ ISU
• Darin Wohlgemuth, Interim Director of Admissions,
& Director of Enrollment Research
• Jonathan Compton, Registrar’s Office
• Greg Forbes, Student Financial Aid
• Kate Ralston, Office of Admissions
• Julia Sullivan, Student Financial Aid
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Enrollment Research Team @ ISU
Vice President for Student Affairs
Registrar
Associate VP for Student Affairs
Admissions & New Student Programs
Student Financial Aid
Financial Aid Research
Admissions Research
Registrar Research
Director of Enrollment Research
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
• Established 1858 • Land grant, research-intensive institution with extension
service• Seven colleges with undergraduate, graduate and
professional programs• Fall 2012 - 8,780 FTE Employees
– 1,694 Faculty, 2,515 P&S, 1,408 Merit, 2,934 Students• FY2013 Budget - $1,214M Total Revenues
– $580M General Fund– $318M Tuition Revenue and $222M State Appropriations
A little bit about Iowa State…
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Enrollment at Iowa State University
• Records set this year! Fall 2013 Fall 2012
– Total Enrollment 33,241 31,040
– Undergraduates 27,659 25,553
– New Direct from High School 6,089 5,366
– New Transfers 2,014 1,851
– Minority + International 7,486 6,765
– Record FAFSAs received
– Record Financial Aid dollars disbursed
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Freshman Admissions Requirements
• Regent Admissions Index (≥ 245 Guaranteed)5 x Core Courses +
2 x ACT +
HS Percentile Rank +
20 x HS GPA
• 15,204 Domestic Freshman Apps• 90% Offered Admission• 42% Yield
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Overview
• Graduation Rates and Time to Degree• Methodology• Factors & Data• Cross Tabs & Analysis of Variance• Regression Analysis• Path Analysis• Implications
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Survey
What is your 4-yr Graduation Rate?
What is your 6-yr Grad Rate?
What is your 5-yr Grad Rate?
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Time to Degree
• National & local interest in increasing 4-year graduation rates
• President’s College Affordability Plan– U.S. Dept. of Education proposes using indicators
to rate colleges (e.g. FTFT graduation rates)
• Performance based state funding• Rankings: U.S. News & World Report
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Retention & Graduation Rates
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Research Questions• What factors drive time to degree at Iowa
State?
• Do the same factors impact debt upon graduation?
• Does increased time to degree lead to higher loan debt upon graduation?
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Methodology
• Define the Population
• Data set up & gathering
• Analysis
• Implications
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
What is the population?
• Retention– Entry cohort looking forward
• Graduation– Entry cohort looking forward
• Time to Degree Analysis– Graduates looking backwards (Survivors)
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
What is the population?
• Undergraduate
• First Time Freshman
• Admitted between 2000 and 2005
• Graduated within 8 years
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Factors• What factors cause students to extend their
time to graduation? Debt? • Demographic, Academic, Experiential, FinancialDemographics Academic Experiential Financial
Gender HS Class Rank Study Abroad Borrowing
Minority ACT/SAT Internships Financial Need
Residency Early Credits Minor Pell Eligibility
1st Term GPA Learning Community
Scholars Award Program
1st Term Credits STEM Major High Ability Scholarship
Changing Major College Choice
Failed Courses Double Major
Dropped Courses Double Degree
5 Yr Programs
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
What data do you need?And, where do you get it?
• Graduation record• Grades & Courses• Enrollment behavior• Demographics• Academic characteristics• Experiential• Soci-economic status• Financial aid package
Registrar Registrar Registrar Registrar / Admissions Admissions Program coordinators Fin Aid / Admissions Financial Aid
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Death by Cross tabs
It appears that Debt is impacted by Time to Degree, but what impacts Time to Degree?
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Death by Cross tabs
Student success in individual courses appears to have an impact on Time to Degree
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Death by Cross tabs
Student success in individual courses appears to have an impact on Time to Degree
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Death by Cross tabs
Major Choice and Major Changes appear to have an impact on Time to Degree
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Death by Cross tabs
Major Choice and Major Changes appear to have an impact on Time to Degree
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Death by Cross tabs
Does Financial Need have an impact on Time to Degree? How do you know? Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Analysis of Variance(One Way ANOVA)
Need Group Mean Time to Deg Significance*$0 4.479 -$1 - $4,999 4.485 0.99$5,000 - $9,999 4.494 0.98$10,000 or more 4.515 0.62
Enrolled College Mean Time to Deg Significance*College 1 4.435 -College 2 4.303 0.00College 3 4.626 0.00College 4 4.698 0.00College 5 4.253 0.00College 6 4.352 0.98
*Significance between groups calculated on graduating within four years using oneway anova with the Scheffe adjustment.
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Factors that Extend Time to Degree
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Influence of Multiple Variables
Internship participation and majoring in a STEM field impact time to degree.How much influence does each of these have individually?Lets take this to the next level, Regression
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Multiple Regression AnalysisTime to degree
• Determine influence of each variable
• Holds other factors constant
• Shows what is and is not important
• Useful in predicting time to degree
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Regression Analysis – Time to degree (Demographics)
Coef. P>|t| BETAFemale -0.1646 0 -0.11387Nonresident -0.0232 0.04 -0.01359Minority 0.0316 0.23 0.011332International -0.0652 0.44 -0.00437Constant 3.9672
What does this mean for a Domestic Female Non-minority student from Out of State?
𝑅2=0.482
𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑜𝐷𝑒𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒=𝟑 .𝟗𝟔𝟕𝟐+ (−𝟎 .𝟏𝟔𝟒𝟔∗𝟏 )+(𝟎 .𝟎𝟑𝟏𝟔∗𝟎 )+(−𝟎 .𝟎𝟐𝟑𝟐∗𝟏 )+(−𝟎 .𝟎𝟔𝟓𝟐∗𝟎 )+…𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑜𝐷𝑒𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒=𝟑 .𝟕𝟕𝟗𝟒+…
𝑻𝒊𝒎𝒆𝒕𝒐 𝑫𝒆𝒈𝒓𝒆𝒆=𝑪𝒐𝒏𝒔𝒕𝒂𝒏𝒕+(−𝟎 .𝟏𝟔𝟒𝟔 ) 𝑭𝒆𝒎𝒂𝒍𝒆+ (𝟎 .𝟎𝟑𝟏𝟔 ) 𝑴𝒊𝒏𝒐𝒓𝒊𝒕𝒚 + (−𝟎 .𝟎𝟐𝟑𝟐 )𝑵𝒐𝒏𝒓𝒆𝒔𝒊𝒅𝒆𝒏𝒕+ (−𝟎 .𝟎𝟔𝟓𝟐 ) 𝑰𝒏𝒕𝒆𝒓𝒏𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏𝒂𝒍+…
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Regression Analysis – Time to degree (Academics)
Coef. P>|t| BETA
F grades 0.1684 0 0.453044
Dropped Classes 0.0644 0 0.149557
Early Credits -0.0131 0 -0.14743
HS Rank -0.0061 0 -0.13987
Major Change 0.0854 0 0.107271
First term Credits -0.0258 0 -0.06452
First term GPA 0.0039 0.63 0.003698
ACT score 0.0007 0.64 0.003669
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Regression Analysis – Time to degree (Experiences)
Coef. P>|t| BETA
Co-op / Internship 0.2517 0 0.196777
140+ Credit Program 0.8392 0 0.179233
Double Degree 0.4686 0 0.103345
STEM 0.1062 0 0.073636
Double Major 0.1432 0 0.063713
Study Abroad 0.1067 0 0.050735
Minor 0.0698 0 0.042752
Learning Community 0.0187 0.04 0.012923
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Regression Analysis – Time to degree (College Choice)
Coef. P>|t| BETA
College 1 Held Out
College 2 -0.0357 0.03 -0.01529
College 3 0.1199 0 0.05077
College 4 0.2421 0 0.150463
College 5 -0.1118 0 -0.04281
College 6 0.0291 0.06 0.012934
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Regression Analysis – Time to degree (Financial)
Coef. P>|t| BETA
Debt at graduation ($1,000’s) 0.0030 0 0.094343
Financial Need ($1,000’s) -0.0054 0 -0.04443
Pell Elig 0.0525 0 0.02906
Merit Award -0.0271 0.04 -0.0183
Award Program G -0.0246 0.51 -0.0053
Award Program M 0.0045 0.92 0.000915
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Regression Analysis – Debt Upon Graduation
Factor Variable Coef. P>|t|
Experiential
140+ Credit Program 8925.488 0
Learning Community -2244.05 0
Double Degree 4793.96 0
Study Abroad 1817.34 0
Co-op/Internship 975.77 0
STEM 577.87 0.26
Double Major 518.30 0.30
Minor 229.80 0.53
Financial
Financial Need 1.61 0
Pell Elig -7914.45 0
Award Program G -9306.05 0
Award Program M -9272.89 0
Merit Award -89.14 0.85
Factor Variable Coef. P>|t|
Demographics
Female 1598.47 0
Intl -16215.75 0
Nonresident -1253.81 0.00
Minority -33.56 0.97
Academics
HS Rank 283.91 0
F grades 1997.81 0
Dropped Classes 1187.77 0
First term GPA -2773.99 0
ACT score -310.73 0
Early Credits -103.50 0
First term Credits -382.24 0
Major Change 154.13 0.42
Enrolled
College
College 1 Held Out
College 2 -2657.77 0
College 3 2034.61 0.00
College 4 2650.36 0
College 5 -1419.74 0.03
College 6 -755.43 0.19
𝑅2=0.231
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Regression Analysis – Time 2 Degree v. Debt Time to
DegreeStudent Debt
Factor Variable P>|t| P>|t|
Demographics
Female 0 0Minority 0.23 0.97Nonresident 0.04 0.00International 0.44 0
Academics
HS Rank 0.00 0ACT score 0.64 0Early Credits 0 0First term GPA 0.63 0First term Credits 0 0F grades 0 0Dropped Classes 0 0Major Change 0 0.42
Enrolled
College
College 1 Held OutCollege 2 0.03 0College 3 0 0.00College 4 0 0College 5 0 0.03
College 6 0.06 0.19
Time to Degree
Student Debt
R squared statistic 0.482 0.241
Factor Variable P>|t| P>|t|
Experiential
140+ Credit Program 0 0STEM 0 0.26Co-op/Internship 0 0.00Study Abroad 0 0Learning Community 0.04 0Minor 0 0.53Double Degree 0 0Double Major 0 0.30
Financial
Debt at graduation 0 Financial Need 0 0Pell Elig 0 0Award Program G 0.51 0Award Program M 0.91 0Merit Award 0.03 0.85
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Interaction of Independent Variables
Both variables impact Time to Degree, but is their a relationship between the variables that may impact the analysis?
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Interaction of Independent Variables
A relationship appears to exist, how do we account for this influence?Path Analysis
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Path Model
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Model Fit
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Meaningful coefficients
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Meaningful coefficients
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Meaningful coefficients
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Meaningful coefficients
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
So now what?
• Value added as part of education…
• Balance between time to degree and value
added opportunities
• Performance based funding
• Curriculum construction
• Student advising
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Data on placement rates by coop-internships
Internship Participation Placement at Graduation
Co-op (2 internships with same company) 80%
Fall/Spring term internship 75%
Summer internship 70%
No experiential education 53%
Overall placement6 months after graduation 95%
Data based on ECS review of 7,000 engineering graduates
“Graduates that don’t have an experiential work experience on their resume have fewer employment opportunities and have to work a lot harder to connect with an employer willing to give them a chance.” – ISU Engineering Career Services
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Taking This Home
• How might you use the results?
• Who on your campus has the necessary data?
• Who has the skills and tools?
• Who on your campus is interested?
• Who needs to be interested?
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Comments & QuestionsContact Information
Jonathan: [email protected]
Greg: [email protected]
Kate: [email protected]
Darin: [email protected]
Thank you for attending this morning!
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Additional Slides
-Regression Detail (T2D)
Other?
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Regression Analysis – Time to Degree
𝑅2=0.482
Factor Variable Coef. P>|t|
Demographics
Female -0.1646 0Minority 0.0316 0.23NonRes -0.0232 0.04Intl -0.0652 0.44
Academics
HS Rank -0.0061 0.00ACT score 0.0007 0.64Early Credits -0.0131 0First term GPA 0.0039 0.63First term Credits -0.0258 0F grades 0.1684 0Dropped Classes 0.0644 0Major Change 0.0854 0
Enrolled
College
College 1 Held OutCollege 2 -0.0357 0.03College 3 0.1199 0College 4 0.2421 0College 5 -0.1118 0College 6 0.0291 0.06
Factor Variable Coef. P>|t|
Experiential
140+ Credit Program 0.8392 0
STEM 0.1062 0
Coop/Internship 0.2517 0
Study Abroad 0.1067 0
Learning Community 0.0187 0.04
Minor 0.0698 0
Double Degree 0.4686 0
Double Major 0.1432 0
Financial
Debt at graduation 0.0000 0
Financial Need 0.0000 0
Pell Elig 0.0525 0
Award Program G -0.0246 0.51
Award Program M 0.0045 0.91
Strategic Award -0.0271 0.03
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Regression Analysis – Time to degree (Demographics)
Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| BetaFemale -0.1646 0.0096 -17.22 0 -0.1139Minority 0.0316 0.0263 1.2 0.229 0.0113Nonresident -0.0232 0.0113 -2.05 0.04 -0.0136Intl -0.0652 0.0848 -0.77 0.442 -0.0044
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Regression Analysis – Time to degree (Academics)
Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| BetaHS Rank -0.0061 0.0019 -3.22 0.001 -0.1399ACT score 0.0007 0.0014 0.47 0.637 0.0037Early Credits -0.0131 0.0005 -24.66 0 -0.1474First term GPA 0.0039 0.0081 0.48 0.633 0.0037First term Credits -0.0258 0.0024 -10.57 0 -0.0645F grades 0.1684 0.0032 51.93 0 0.4530Dropped Classes 0.0644 0.0028 22.74 0 0.1496Major Change 0.0854 0.0051 16.89 0 0.1073
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Regression Analysis – Time to degree (Experiences)
Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| Beta140+ Credit Program 0.8392 0.0300 27.96 0 0.1792STEM 0.1062 0.0134 7.9 0 0.0736Coop / Internship 0.2517 0.0077 32.83 0 0.1968Study Abroad 0.1067 0.0128 8.35 0 0.0507Learning Community 0.0187 0.0091 2.04 0.041 0.0129Minor 0.0698 0.0096 7.29 0 0.0428Double Degree 0.4686 0.0261 17.97 0 0.1033Double Major 0.1432 0.0132 10.83 0 0.0637
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Regression Analysis – Time to degree (College Choice)
Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| BetaLiberal Arts & Sciences
Held Out
Ag & Life Sciences -0.0357 0.0167 -2.14 0.033 -0.0153Design 0.1199 0.0169 7.08 0 0.0508Engineering 0.2421 0.0145 16.73 0 0.1505Human Sciences -0.1118 0.0171 -6.55 0 -0.0428Business 0.0291 0.0153 1.9 0.057 0.0129
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Regression Analysis – Time to degree (Financial)
Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| BetaDebt at graduation 0.0000 0.0000 14.63 0 0.0943Financial Need 0.0000 0.0000 -5.13 0 -0.0444Pell Elig 0.0525 0.0149 3.53 0 0.0291Award Program G -0.0246 0.0375 -0.66 0.512 -0.0053Award Program M 0.0045 0.0380 0.12 0.905 0.0009Strategic Award -0.0271 0.0121 -2.24 0.025 -0.0183
Enrollment Research Team
AACRAO-SEM
Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013
Regression Analysis – Time to degree (Demographics)
Coef. P>|t|Female -0.1646 0Minority 0.0316 0.23Nonresident -0.0232 0.04International -0.0652 0.44Constant 3.9672
What does this mean for a Domestic Female Non-minority student from Out of State?
𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑜𝐷𝑒𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒=𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑡+ (−0.1646 )𝐹𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒+ (0.0316 ) 𝑀𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑡𝑦+ (−0.0232 ) 𝑁𝑜𝑛𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡+(−0.0652 ) 𝐼𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑛𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙=3.9672+(−0.1646∗1 )+ (0.0316∗0 )+(−0.0232∗1 )+(−0.0652∗0 )=3.7794𝑅2=0.482