Enrollment ProjectionJuly 17, 2007

Terrance L. Seethoff, DeanCollege of Arts and Sciences

NMU Frosh FYES Enrollment

NMU Frosh FYES Enrollment vs.Michigan 18 Year Olds

NMU Freshman FYES is strongly correlated with Michigan 18 year old population.Correllation = 0.88; r-squared = 0.77

Out of State FYES

Recent Frosh FYES enrollment hasGrown faster than 18 year old population.

Michigan 18 Year Old Population Projection

Source: US Census Bureau 2005 Projection of Population by Age

Source: US Census Bureau 2005 Projection of Population by Age

Michigan 18 Year Old Population Projection vs.National 18 Year Old Population

Midwest Recruiting Region18 Year Old Population Projection

Source: US Census Bureau 2005 Projection of Population by Age

Midwest Recruiting Region18 Year Old Population Projection vs.National 18 Year Old Population.

Source: US Census Bureau 2005 Projection of Population by Age

Public High School Graduates: Cumulative Change From 2008

  State UP LP

West Central

UP

East UP Northern

LPCentral

LP

East Central

LP SE LP SW LP2009 0% -5% 0% -5% -2% 1% 1% -2% 1%2010 -2% -9% -2% -7% -5% -3% 1% -5% -1%2011 -5% -12% -4% -11% -9% -5% -1% -8% -3%2012 -9% -15% -9% -16% -12% -10% -4% -15% -8%2013 -11% -19% -11% -20% -14% -14% -5% -18% -9%2014 -14% -19% -14% -19% -18% -15% -7% -23% -10%2015 -15% -20% -15% -20% -20% -17% -8% -25% -11%2016 -16% -25% -16% -23% -22% -18% -9% -26% -10%2017 -17% -22% -17% -22% -23% -20% -9% -29% -9%2018 -17% -28% -17% -27% -23% -20% -9% -29% -8%2019 -19% -26% -19% -25% -25% -21% -11% -31% -9%2020 -22% -30% -22% -27% -30% -24% -15% -34% -12%2021 -23% -30% -23% -27% -31% -26% -15% -35% -12%

Base Data: Center for Educational Performance Information (Michigan)

N.B. the data above are cumulative, and not annual changes.

Regional Projections of High School GraduatesCohort Survival Analysis

The 18 year old population will decline through 2016 in Michigan and as well in our Midwest recruiting region.

The Michigan 18 year population is projected to remain stagnant at its 2016 lows for the foreseeable future. The 18 year old population in neighboring states is projected to rebound after 2016, but not as robustly as the nation.

Correlation

18 Year OldProjection

Undergraduate FYES Projection

Data through AY 2008 are actual; Data for 2009 and beyond are projections.

Public High School Graduates: Cumulative Change From 2008

  State UP LP

West Central

UP

East UP Northern

LPCentral

LP

East Central

LP SE LP SW LP2009 0% -5% 0% -5% -2% 1% 1% -2% 1%2010 -2% -9% -2% -7% -5% -3% 1% -5% -1%2011 -5% -12% -4% -11% -9% -5% -1% -8% -3%2012 -9% -15% -9% -16% -12% -10% -4% -15% -8%2013 -11% -19% -11% -20% -14% -14% -5% -18% -9%2014 -14% -19% -14% -19% -18% -15% -7% -23% -10%2015 -15% -20% -15% -20% -20% -17% -8% -25% -11%2016 -16% -25% -16% -23% -22% -18% -9% -26% -10%2017 -17% -22% -17% -22% -23% -20% -9% -29% -9%2018 -17% -28% -17% -27% -23% -20% -9% -29% -8%2019 -19% -26% -19% -25% -25% -21% -11% -31% -9%2020 -22% -30% -22% -27% -30% -24% -15% -34% -12%2021 -23% -30% -23% -27% -31% -26% -15% -35% -12%

ProjectionUG Pct Change from 2008

2008 8,024 2009 7,947 -1%2010 7,742 -4%2011 7,597 -5%2012 7,461 -7%2013 7,254 -10%2014 7,049 -12%2015 6,878 -14%2016 6,763 -16%2017 6,662 -17%2018 6,606 -18%2019 6,634 -17%2020 6,587 -18%2021 6,499 -19%2022 6,452 -20%2023 6,353 -21%2024 6,315 -21%2025 6,355 -21%2026 6,404 -20%2027 6,460 -19%2028 6,520 -19%2029 6,571 -18%2030 6,608 -18%

Michigan 2005 Projected Population vs. Annual Updated Estimates

Undergraduate enrollment estimates based upon projected 18 year old populations are probably too high.The total state population as projected in 2005 is substantially higher than recently revised estimates.

Thanks