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Enrollment and Facility Use Committee. Report to Board of Education January 10, 2012 . Charge Statement and Focus Questions. Strategic Plan Action Plan 4.B.1.c: Develop a build plan based on up-to-date forecasts that will inform SPLOST and other revenue needs. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Enrollment and Facility Use Committee
Report to Board of Education January 10, 2012
Charge Statement and Focus Questions
1. How might we accurately predict the enrollment trends for the future?
2. How might our buildings best be used to plan for that uncertain future?
Strategic Plan Action Plan 4.B.1.c: Develop a build plan based on up-to-date forecasts that will inform SPLOST and other revenue needs.
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Historical Enrollment
enrollment
See: What Research Tells Us
12%
1%
7%7%
Since 2007 =
31% growth
See: What Research Tells Us
Research = no refereed journals
Our own Enrollment DataOther Data Sources
Pre-K wait listsHomebuilding DataCensus Data
See: What Research Tells UsEnrollment Calculation for
KindergartenSum of 2010-2011 Kindergarten and 2011-2012
Kindergarten enrollment Sum of 2005-2006 and 2006-2007 live births
Sum of 2010-2011 and 2011-2012 grade one Sum of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 Kindergarten
Enrollment Calculation for Other Grade Levels
Example: grade one
See: What Research Tells UsTwo-year Cohort Ratio
2011-2012
actual
2012-2013
projection
2013-2014
projection
2014-2015
projection
2015-2016
projection
3,246 3,574 3,905 4,218 4,538
One-year Cohort Ratio
2011-2012
actual
2012-2013
projection
2013-2014
projection
2014-2015
projection
2015-2016
projection
3,246 3,630 3,967 4,283 4,599
See: What Research Tells UsOne-year Cohort Ratio
Grade Level
September, 2011
Projection September 2012
K 353 353 1st 313 373 2nd 302 339 3rd 270 298 4th 256 297 5th 241 284 6th 228 288 7th 232 239 8th 226 243 9th 260 275 10th 218 259 11th 188 209 12th 159 174 Total 3,246 3,630
See: What Research Tells UsPre-Kindergarten Data
PreK2010-2011
K2011-2012
Difference
Clairemont Elementary 42 23.46% 79 23.65% 0.19%Glennwood Elementary 29 16.20% 57 17.07% 0.86%Oakhurst Elementary 67 37.43% 114 34.13% -3.30%Winnona Park Elementary 41 22.91% 84 25.15% 2.24%
2011-2012 Pre-Kindergarten Wait List53 residents 8 courtesy tuition 2010-2011 Pre-Kindergarten Wait List40 residents7 courtesy tuition
Pre-K enrollment zones are a valid predictor of Kindergarten enrollment zones.
See: What Research Tells Us
Homebuilding DataLenore Street development
9 houses Estimated completion August 2012
South Candler development
9 houses Estimated completion December 2012
Midway Road development
26 houses
Estimated completion January 2013
Source: Amanda Thompson, City of Decatur
See: What Research Tells Us2010 Census Data
% Δ% Δ
under 5
% Δ 5-9 YO
% Δ 10-14
YO
3.22% 15.38% -1.52% -15.19%
% Δ% Δ
under 5
% Δ 5-9 YO
% Δ 10-14
YO
8.65% 83.13% 29.36% -15.72%
% Δ% Δ
under 5
% Δ 5-9 YO
% Δ 10-14
YO
14.03% 28.51%117.58
%68.82%
% Δ% Δ under 5
% Δ 5-9 YO
% Δ 10-14
YO
-3.11% 16.44% 40.59% -5.36%
See: What Research Tells Us
Growth of Young LearnersCity of Decatur percent
Δ 2000-2010City Schools of Decatur percent
Δ 2000-20100-5 year olds 34.41% 93.96%5-9 year olds 34.08% 43.20%
For 0-5 population, used proxy of Kindergarten growth from 2000-2011; for 5-9 year olds assumed growth in 1st-3rd grades from 2000-2011
See: What Other Districts and Communities Tell Us
Using current
grade level enrollments and placing
those enrollments into the next grade level
Using one-year cohort
ratios combined
with qualitative interviews
Discovery: city birth rate data available from Department of
Public Health
See: What Our Stakeholders Tell Us
Survey and Focus Group with Realtors
Oakhurst could be 33% through transitionSouth side has higher densitySouth side attracts more families with younger childrenSummer is busiest move-in time
RecommendationsThe short-term overall recommendation of the
Enrollment Committee is to not re-zone or open up additional buildings for the 2012-
2013 school year.
CSD will continue to transfer students between K-3 buildings that cannot manage their zoned enrollments.Class sizes for 1st grade 2012-2013 will resemble the class sizes for Kindergarten 2011-2012.One trailer would stay at each school: Oakhurst and Winnona Park.Candidates for paying tuition for Kindergarten and 1st grade will not be informed of their status until July 11, 2012, thus allowing summer resident registrations to subside.
Assumptions:
RecommendationsThree Categories Processes to improve projections Strategies to accommodate growth Educational opportunities for the community
Recommendations Recommendation 1a: Develop an annual process
involving stakeholders to validate enrollment projection formula with other data sources.
Recommendation 1b: Institute a Pre-Registration tracking process on CSD website.
Recommendation 1c: Strategically publicize Pre-Registration tracking process with realtors and City of Decatur.
Processes to improve projections
RecommendationsRecommendation 2a: Consider how College
Heights and Westchester could serve some birth-grade 3 students.
Strategies to accommodate growth
Sub-recommendati
on 2a-1:Consider adding K-3 classrooms
at College Heights and
opening Westchester as a birth-grade 3 school with a
small enrollment zone.
Sub-recommendati
on 2a-2:Consider opening
Westchester as a preschool-
grade 3 school with a small enrollment
zone.
Sub-recommendati
on 2a-3:Consider opening
Westchester as a Controlled
Choice preschool-
grade 3 school.
Sub-recommendati
on 2a-4:Consider opening
Westchester as a Controlled Choice K-3
school.
Recommendations
College Heights Oakhurst Westchester
Sub-recommendation 2a-1 Birth-grade 3 Addition maybe later Birth-grade 3
Sub-recommendation 2a-2 Birth-age 4 Addition high urgency Age 3-grade 3
Sub-recommendation 2a-3 Birth-age 4 Addition high urgency Age 3-grade 3 controlled
choiceSub-recommendation
2a-4 Birth-age 4 Addition medium urgency K-3 controlled choice
Recommendation 2: Summary Matrix
Strategies to accommodate growth
RecommendationsRecommendation 2b: Begin addition to FAVE to
accommodate system-wide growth
Strategies to accommodate growth
FAVE was designed in 2009-2010, a year of 1% enrollment growth following years of 4% and 7% growth
respectively. At that time, it was not foreseeable that years of 7% and 12% growth respectively were to come.
RecommendationsRecommendation 3a: Host Enrollment Zone
Information night.
Educational opportunities for the community