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Enrollment
Analysis Report
2015-2016 to 2020-2021
November 2015
Newton Public Schools 100 Walnut Street Newton, MA 02460
David Fleishman Superintendent
Sandra Guryan
Deputy Superintendent/Chief Administrative Officer
Acknowledgements:
Susan Dzikowski, Director of Finance Sean Mannion, Senior Budget Analyst
Julie Kirrane, Long-Range Planning Manager Katy Hogue, District Student Data Manager
Janelle Roth, Administrative Assistant
TABLE OF CONTENTS
SECTION PAGE
Executive Summary
i-iv
I. Enrollment Trends
System-wide Projections
Elementary Projections
Secondary Projections
National, State and Local Trends
Rental Housing Complexes
Housing Trends in Newton
Trends in Housing Patterns of District Families
Real Estate Sales
1-17
II. Enrollment Projection Method
Kindergarten Projection Methodology
NESDEC Comparison
Accuracy of Projections
Frequently Asked Questions
18-28
III. Enrollment History
Grade-by-Grade Analysis
A Comparison to Peak Enrollment Years
29-37
IV. Individual School Reports
38-80
V. Student Exits and Entrances
V1. Non-Public/Private School Students
Appendices
A. Special Enrollments
B. Buffer Zones (Elementary School Students by District)
C. City of Newton Population Growth
D. Residential Property Data
E. NESDEC’s Enrollment Projections vs. Newton’s
F. Total Enrollment by High School Feeder Patterns
G. Residential Developments
H. Student Assignment Changes (Approved 9/16/2015)
81-88
89-94
95-111
LIST OF TABLES
TABLE PAGE
1. Projected Enrollments by School 2016-2017 to 2020-21 7
2. Enrollment History and Projections by School 1974-75 to 2020-21 8-9
3. Projected Enrollments by Grade 2016-2017 to 2020-21 10
4. Enrollment History and Projections by Grade 1975-76 to 2020-21 11-12
5. Comparison of Actual and Projected Five-Year Enrollment Change 13
6. Percent of Change by Grade Span 2009-2010 to 2020-21 14
7. Actual System Enrollment Change 1977-78 to 2015-16 15
8. Actual Elementary School Enrollment Change 1981-82 to 2015-16 16
9. Actual Secondary School Enrollment Change 1984-85 to 2015-16 17
10. Resident Births to Kindergarten Ratios 19
11. Projection History for 2015-2016 21
12. Comparison of Projected with Actual 2015-16 Enrollment 22
13. Actual and Projected Enrollments by School 2015-2016 23-24
14. Actual and Projected K-12 Enrollments 2009-10 to 2020-21 25
15. Enrollments by Grade 2014-15 and 2015-16 30
16. Historical Cohort Survival Ratios by Grade 31
17. Percent of Change by Elementary School 2009-10 to 2020-21 32-35
18. Percent of Change by Middle School 2009-10 to 2020-21 36
19. Percent of Change by High School 2009-10 to 2020-21 37
20. Exiting Elementary School Students 2014-15 82
21. Exiting Middle School Students 2014-15 83
22. Exiting High School Students 2014-15 83
23. Total Student Exits 2012-13 through 2014-15 84
24. History of Exits to Non-Public Schools 2008-09 to 2014-15 85
25. Entering Elementary School Students 2014-15 and 2015-16 as of October 1, 2015 87
26. Entering Middle School Students 2014-15 and 2015-16 as of October 1, 2015 87
27. Entering High School Students 2014-15 and 2015-16 as of October 1, 2015 88
28. Non-Public/Private School Students by Grade (2015 Census) 92
29. Non-Public/Private School by School (2015 Census) 93
30. Special Education Students Tuitioned-out (2015 Census) 94
Appendix A PAGE
1. METCO Enrollment 2015-16 by School and Grade 95
2. English Language Learners Enrollment, 1990-91 to 2015-16 96
3. English Language Learners Enrollment by Language 97
4. Distribution of Students Receiving Special Education Services 98-99
5. Number of Non-resident Students, October 1, 2014 and 2015 100
Appendix B
6. Elementary Students by District with Buffer Zones, October 1, 2014 and 2015 101-103
Appendix C
7. City of Newton Population Growth 104
Appendix D
8. City of Newton Housing Types and Students by Housing Type 105
9. Residential Property Sales by Elementary District, 2005 to 2015 106
10. Properties Listed for Sale in Newton by Elementary District 107
Appendix E
11. NESDEC’s Enrollment Projections vs. Newton’s 108
Appendix F
12. Total Enrollment by High School Feeder Patterns 109
Appendix G
13. Residential Development Scenarios for Enrollment in Newton Public Schools 110
Appendix H
14. Current Elementary District Map (September 2015) 111
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2015-16 ENROLLMENT ANALYSIS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Newton Public Schools system-wide enrollment is stable this year after ten consecutive years of rising enrollments with 1,240 students (11%) added from 2004 to 2015. The initial years of growth from 2004 – 2009 brought 339 students to the system. The next four years up to 2014, when the steepest growth occurred, added another 834 students to the district, followed by the addition of 62 students in 2014. Current 2015-16 total enrollment of 12,508 students has risen by five students since last year, with growth of 1% occurring at the secondary level offset by lower enrollment at the elementary level. The district is expected to increase by an additional 393 students (3%) over the next five years, with growth at the secondary schools and a leveling of enrollment at the elementary schools.
The robust five-year growth trend in the district’s kindergarten enrollment has paused this year. With a current kindergarten population of 877 students instead of the higher classes of 934, 958 and 938 students that occurred in the last three years respectively, the elementary population overall is seeing a decrease for the first time since 2004. On average this year, grades within elementary schools have an enrollment of 964 students, with a first grade over 1,000 students. The elementary level is expected to have two grades with over 1,000 students in 2017 and 2018. This year, all elementary cohorts except kindergarten to grade 1 are stable, indicating that movement of families into the district is equal to movement out of the district. From kindergarten to grade 1, there is growth in the number of students as has been Newton’s experience for decades. Often, grades 2 through 4 also have positive cohort growth, but this has not been the case for the past two years. As a result, there is a slower rate of elementary growth overall.
The middle schools have grown by 365 students (15%) from 2007-08 to the present; classes were on average 818 students in 2007 and today classes average 939 students. Although middle school growth has experienced a two year slow down, the overall growth trend remains strong, with an additional 181 middle school students expected over the next five years. The high school growth trend that began in 2012-13 has resulted in an additional 337 students. Last year’s class of 921 eighth graders has grown to a class of 945 grade nine students which is close to the average grade size of 950 students at the high schools. Strong growth at the secondary level is the result of movement through the system of the earlier elementary growth, with the high schools currently experiencing the most of this impact. Over the next five years, growth of 207 students (5%) is expected.
This school year is again a strong enrollment year for students currently enrolled as English Language Learners (ELL), with a reduction from a peak of 911 students in 2013 and a decrease of 48 students from last year, but with growth of 305 students (58%) over ten years. There are 827 ELL students in 2015-16; ten percent of elementary students are English Learners. The percentage of students with identified special needs is stable at 19.2% this year versus 19.1% in 2014.
Current enrollment of 12,508 is 175 students below the projection made in November 2014, a system-wide variance from projection of -1.4%. In recent years, system-wide variances have been under 1%. In the past 15 years, Newton has had six negative variances when actual enrollment has been lower than projected enrollment. More commonly in this time period, the
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actual enrollment has been higher than the projection. This year, by grade level, the difference from expected enrollment is made up of 74 fewer elementary school students, 34 fewer middle school students and 67 fewer high school students. The grade levels each varied from projection fairly evenly by -1.3%, -1.2% and -1.7% respectively. First grade, however, exceeded growth projections by 2.7% and will be a strong component of ongoing enrollment growth. Kindergarten growth was lower than expected by -4.9% and ninth grade growth was lower than expected by -3.9%.
This report details changes in enrollments by school since last year. It reviews current enrollments as compared with the November 2014 projections, and projects enrollments using five-year historical data considered in the context of local trends in real estate sales, new development, student mobility, birth data, census data, housing trends and other factors. Changes to Newton Public Schools elementary student assignment policies were approved in September 2015 and are fully integrated into the five-year projections contained in this report. Actual 2015-16 enrollments presented in this report have changed slightly from the Preliminary Enrollment Report of October 13, 2015, with a net decrease of ten students.
Future Enrollment The traditional cohort survival method of enrollment projections using five-year historical data yields the projections for grades 1 through 12 on the following chart. The 2016-17 kindergarten projection has been calculated using an adjusted straight five-year average of previous kindergarten enrollments. This is the same basic methodology that has been used since 2013. The prior methodology, which used city census data on four year olds as part of the projection, yields kindergarten projections that, at below 800 students, are likely too low. See Section II entitled Enrollment Projection Method for more information and discussion of the full methodology used in this year’s forecast.
The following graph is a representation of more than 30 years of enrollment in the Newton Public Schools, from 1988 to 2015, including projections from 2016 through 2020. The graph illustrates the trend of sustained increases during the 1990’s, then a six-year period of stability, followed by the growth trend over the past ten years and the projected growth trend for five additional years.
ActualLevel 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21
Elementary 5,785 5,787 5,844 5,859 5,833 5,790 Middle 2,818 2,838 2,857 2,855 2,901 2,999 High School 3,905 3,955 3,987 4,041 4,116 4,112 Total 12,508 12,580 12,688 12,755 12,850 12,901
* The projections include a separate forecast for kindergarten based on an adjusted straight five-year average of previous kindergarten enrollments.
Projections Using 5 Year Ratios*
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Appendices A through H (pages 95-111)
Special enrollments including METCO, English Language Learners and students receiving special education services; elementary school students by district with buffer zones; data on City of Newton population growth by age group; current residential properties for sale in Newton by elementary school district and historical residential property sales; Newton property types and housing types of Newton Public School students; the New England School Development Council’s (NESDEC) enrollment projections for Newton, discussed in detail in Section II; total enrollment by high school feeder patterns, potential students from permitted residential developments; and for reference, a map of student assignment changes approved in September 2015 that will affect enrollment projections going forward.
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I. ENROLLMENT TRENDS
System-wide Projections
Elementary Projections
Secondary Projections
National, State and Local Trends
Rental Housing Complexes
Housing Trends in Newton
Trends in Housing Patterns of District Families
Real Estate Sales
System-w
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Elementary Projections
Elementary enrollment is expected to increase from 5,785 students to 5,787 students next year, an increase of 2 students, with a peak of 5,859 students in 2018. Since 2003-04, the population has grown by a total of 847 students, or 17%. Enrollment projections are dependent on current student counts and trends from past years. Today’s kindergarten enrollment of 877 students is the lowest of the past five years which included three of the highest kindergarten classes on record in forty years. The average size of the kindergarten classes over the prior three years was 943 students and this year the average is reduced to 924 students; the five year average of kindergarten classes is 920 students. Please refer to Section II for the kindergarten projection methodology which explains the use of birth data and city census data for children aged 3 to 5 years to understand kindergarten projections.
Refer to Section IV, Individual School Reports, for the elementary school projections by grade and by school and other enrollment details. Several schools will see the impact of the student assignment changes approved this September 2015 in the projections for the next five years. Angier and Zervas are projected to have increased enrollments as the new schools with expanded capacity accept students from crowded schools where enrollment consequently is projected to decrease. These schools include: Bowen, Burr, Countryside, Mason-Rice and Ward. Williams continues to project increased enrollment, though not as high as enrollment would have been prior to the student reassignment process. Of the schools not part of the recent student assignment review, the largest increases over the next five years are projected at Memorial-Spaulding (+31 students, or +7%), Franklin (+18 students, or +5%), and Lincoln-Eliot (+14 students, or +4%). Cabot had a smaller than expected kindergarten class this year and is projected to decrease by 36 students over the next five years. Cabot enrollment will be evaluated during the second phase of student assignment review that will focus on both Cabot and Lincoln-Eliot.
Appendix B, Table 6 lists student enrollment in buffer zones by school for this school year and last. The use of buffer zones is an effective way to ameliorate space constraints at the elementary schools. Since 2011, buffer zones have been used by school administration to determine space availability requests between the schools in the district. Once a student from a buffer zone is placed in a school, he/she will follow the same feeder pattern as peers in that school. Table 6 displays each buffer zone and, for more recently created zones, notes the year the zone was developed. Buffer zone changes in 2015-16 that resulted from the newly approved student assignment policy are clearly marked. Buffer zones that were eliminated as part of that process are also clearly marked. Due to timing, Table 6 does not display all of the buffer zones established as a precursor to the permanent student assignment changes made for Zervas. Those buffer zones were put into place in May 2015 to manage enrollment that could result from students moving in over the summer; there were three students moving into these areas and placed at Zervas over the summer.
Secondary Projections
Middle school enrollment increased by 12 students in 2015-16, and is projected to increase next year by 20 students. Over the next five years, middle school enrollment is projected to grow by an additional 181 students to 2,999 students, an increase of 6%. In 2020, grades 6 and 7 are both projected to be over 1,000 students.
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This year’s high school enrollment of 3,905 students has grown by 41 students since last year and is expected to increase for the next five years as the larger elementary and middle school populations move to high school. By 2020-21, a net increase of 207 high school students is expected. Both high schools will increase over the next five years; enrollment projections show Newton North High School will increase by 126 students, or +6% and Newton South High School will increase by 81 students, or +5%. The difference in enrollment between the two high schools is expected to be more than 300 students over the next five years. Secondary data showing past, present and projected enrollments are presented in Table 9.
National, State and Local Trends
Although the U.S. Census Bureau continues to rank Massachusetts very low in expected school age population growth from 2000-2030, Newton’s enrollment projections and those of other communities near Boston are not typical of Massachusetts; enrollment in the Newton Public Schools and in most nearby districts continues to increase. The chart below shows the status of district enrollments over the most recent available six-year time period from 2009-10 to 2015-16 for ten communities, including Newton, with the largest absolute and percentage growth in Brookline, followed by Belmont and Lexington on a percentage basis.
Since the 2000 United States Census, the population of the City of Newton has increased by 1,300 residents, growing to over 85,000. The updated population reflects the official 2010 Census released by the United States Census Bureau in April 2011.1 Appendix C, Table 7 compares City of Newton data from the 2010 United States Census to the 2000 United States Census by age range; the 1990 Census is also shown.
On a national and regional level, the 2010 Census reported 308.7 million people in the United States, a 10% increase from the 2000 Census population of 281.4 million as compared to ten year population growth of only 2% in Newton and 3% statewide. The national increase of 10% over the last decade was lower than the 13% increase of the 1990’s and is similar to the magnitude of growth in the 1980’s. Nationally, 24% of the United States population is less than 18 years of age, 7% of which accounts for children under five years old. This reflects a national school age demographic of 18% of the total population; in contrast, the school age demographic for both Massachusetts and Newton is 16%.
Rental Housing Complexes
Total enrollments by school for four large residential rental communities are shown in the following table; enrollments have been stable at these complexes for the past three years with net changes of fewer than 10 students per year. There is an overall net increase from the prior year of four students.
1 United States Census Bureau, Census 2010
School Year Brookline Belmont Lexington Newton Needham Wellesley Westwood Watertown Wayland Weston2015-16 7,416 4,464 6,881 12,508 5,582 4,975 3,162 2,640 2,659 2,1392009-10 6,472 3,974 6,182 11,607 5,311 4,868 3,100 2,613 2,738 2,388Change 944 490 699 901 271 107 62 27 -79 -249
Percent 15% 12% 11% 8% 5% 2% 2% 1% -3% -10%2015-2016 enrollment as of October 1, 2015
Six Year Enrollment Change in Surrounding Districts
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Avalon at Newton Highlands, a 294-unit apartment complex opened in 2003, has a population of 106 students enrolled in the Newton Public Schools. Avalon at Chestnut Hill, a 204-unit apartment complex opened in 2006, has 61 students enrolled in the Newton Public Schools, a decrease of 11 students since last year. Arborpoint at Woodland Station, a 2007 transit-oriented 180-unit rental complex, has 53 students enrolled in the district. Woodland Park is an older complex and consists of 126 rental apartments including 80 two-bedroom units, 30 one-bedroom units and 16 studios, with 57 students living in this complex near the Riverside MBTA station.
About half of the students residing at these complexes are elementary students (48%) and the remaining students attend middle or high school (52%); there are also 51 students enrolled in private school living in these complexes.
Newton Public Schools works with the City Planning and Development Department to monitor residential development proposals with a potential impact on enrollment. As of November 1, 2015, project statuses are provided by the Planning & Development Department for the following residential development projects with at least 10 units of housing.
School
Avalon at Newton
Highlands (294 Units)
Avalon at Chestnut Hill (204
Units)
Arborpoint at
Woodland Station
(180 Units)
Woodland Park at 264-290 Grove
(126 Units)
Total
Angier 12 1 13Burr 1 1 2Countryside 31 31Horace Mann 1Mason-Rice 1 1Memorial-Spaulding 28 28Peirce 15 15Williams 14 28 42Zervas 1 1
All Elementary 45 30 29 30 132
Brown 26 6 14 46Day 1 7 1 9Oak Hill 1 16 17Newton North 3 1 7 1 12Newton South 30 14 4 11 59
All Secondary 61 31 24 27 143
Total 106 61 53 57 277
Prior Year Total (2014-15) 98 72 53 50 273
Change from Prior Year 8 -11 0 7 4
Private School Students 26 19 5 1 51
Enrollment at Newton's Largest Rental Housing Complexes (2015-16)
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Kessler Woods and Court Street are residential developments that have reached the approved permit stage, the point at which potential students are included in the enrollment projections. Construction has begun at Kessler Woods, the 42-acre site on the West Roxbury and Brookline borders of Newton along LaGrange Street. Construction has not yet begun at Court Street.
Preliminary enrollment projections at full occupancy based on experience ratios from three large complexes in Newton have been made and students have been added to the three final years of the projections for Memorial-Spaulding and Horace Mann. A table that shows the calculation related to each project can be found in Appendix G, Table 13.
The nine acre Riverside proposal for 290 residential apartments in a mixed-use development including retail and offices from developer BH Normandy Riverside LLC was approved by the Board of Aldermen in October 2013, including approval for special permits and zoning changes. Due to continuing delays, potential students from the Riverside development are not currently included in the enrollment projections. Because the special permit had been issued, and no delay had been anticipated, students were included in the November 2013 and November 2014 projections. Housing Trends in Newton
In addition to the increased numbers of large apartment complexes in the City since 2002, Newton has had an increase in the number of condominium properties as well. The table below shows the current housing types in Newton, as well as housing types in FY04, twelve years ago. According to the City Assessor’s office, there has been an increase of 1,301 condominium properties, or 37%. Condominiums have been the result of both conversions of existing properties such as two- or three-family homes, which have decreased since FY04, as well as new construction or additions. Single family homes, with only a 1% increase since FY04, have been the most stable segment of the housing stock in Newton.
Proposed Residential Development Total Units Affordable Units Status as of November 1, 2015
Wells Avenue 334 84 (25%) Denied, in litigation
Riverside 290 44 (15%) Delayed
70 Rowe Street, Auburndale 150 30 (20%) Under review by ZBA
1260 Washington Street 149 22 (15%) Conceptual development
Kessler Woods at La Grange Street 88 13 (15%) Under construction
Austin Street 68 17 (15%) Under review by BOA
1521 Beacon Street 48 10 (21%) Mass Housing Approval; Planning/Design
75‐83 Court Street 36 9 (25%) Approved, construction pending
283 Melrose Street 29 4 (15%) Under review by BOA
1615 Beacon Street 24 6 (25%) In conceptual development
Crescent Street 8‐12 4‐6 (50%) In conceptual development
Housing Type FY04% of Total in
FY04FY16
% of Total in FY16
# Change % Change
Single Family 16,885 69% 16,972 67% 87 1%
Condominium 3,489 14% 4,790 19% 1,301 37%
Two Family 3,224 13% 2,827 11% -397 -12%
Three Family 308 1% 285 1% -23 -7%
Apartment Buildings 176 1% 152 1% -24 -14%
Mixed Use 296 1% 245 1% -51 -17%
TOTAL PROPERTIES 24,378 100% 25,271 100% 893 4%Source: Newton Assessors Office
City of Newton Housing Types
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Trends in Housing Patterns of District Families
There have also been shifts in the housing patterns of families with Newton Public School children. According to city Geographic Information System data that matches school students to housing types, families are living in the new types of housing that are now available in Newton. While approximately 211 more school children live in single family homes in 2015 than in 2002, the percentage of school children living in single family homes has declined from 73% to 66% because of enrollment growth during this time period. Conversely, there has been an increase from 5% to 11% in the percentage of school children living in condominiums. This represents a real increase of 790 students living in condominiums today compared to 2002 and a rate of change of 150%. This data illustrates that families of Newton school children today are more likely to live in condominiums, apartments and two/three family homes (in that order) than in 2002.
Real Estate Sales
According to data obtained from City of Newton records, there were 1,311 residential property sales in calendar year 2014 versus 1,165 the year before, an increase of 13%. Calendar year 2014 had the highest number of property sales of the last nine years. (See Appendix D, Table 9.) Through the first nine months of 2015, real estate sales totaled 864 versus 934 (-7%) for the same period one year ago. Appendix D, Table 9 shows the data by school district, making clear the differences in total property sales by neighborhood.
Additional information is provided in Table 10 of Appendix D with properties listed for sale by school district in Newton as of November 2015; there are 17% fewer properties listed for sale in Newton this year as compared to one year ago. Seventy-two percent of properties listed for sale in Newton are single family homes with eight out of every ten homes having four or more bedrooms. The three columns to the far right of the exhibit show the percentages by type of property on the market by school district. For example, in the Countryside School district, 72% of properties listed for sale are single family, 23% are condominiums and 5% are multi-family while in the Memorial-Spaulding district, 92% of properties for sale are single family, and 8% are condominiums.
Type of Housing 2002% of
Resident Students
2015% of
Resident Students
Change Change %
Single Family 7,777 73% 7,988 66% 211 3%Two/Three Family 1,671 16% 1,860 15% 189 11%Condominiums 526 5% 1,316 11% 790 150%Apartment Buildings 251 2% 584 5% 333 133%Mixed Use / Other 389 4% 342 3% -47 -12%Total 10,614 100% 12,090 100% 1,476 285%Source: Newton Geographic Information Systems
Newton Public School Children by Housing Type
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TABLE 1PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY SCHOOL
FY17-FY21
Spec. Actual Projections Using 5 Year Average Ratios**School Ed.* FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21Angier 409 416 439 454 463 465Bowen 449 436 433 431 396 394Burr 412 404 402 405 387 380Cabot 403 388 385 371 374 367Countryside 450 431 426 417 423 415Franklin 424 448 449 453 455 442Horace Mann 412 412 397 393 393 394Lincoln-Eliot 340 340 348 359 352 354Mason-Rice 492 488 500 494 479 460Memorial-Spaulding 452 450 460 478 484 483Peirce 314 306 292 292 295 289Underwood 326 329 332 333 332 314Ward 304 308 307 296 286 283Williams 290 299 304 290 296 307Zervas 308 332 370 393 418 443TOTAL ELEMENTARY (0) 5,785 5,787 5,844 5,859 5,833 5,790Bigelow 509 513 523 524 547 580Brown 780 790 758 740 745 798Day 927 923 993 1,013 1,024 1,018Oak Hill 602 612 583 578 585 603TOTAL MIDDLE (0) 2,818 2,838 2,857 2,855 2,901 2,999Newton North (82) 2,107 2,154 2,165 2,166 2,197 2,233Newton South (22) 1,798 1,801 1,822 1,875 1,919 1,879TOTAL HIGH SCHOOL (104) 3,905 3,955 3,987 4,041 4,116 4,112GRAND TOTAL (104) 12,508 12,580 12,688 12,755 12,850 12,901*Enrollment numbers and projections include students who receive special education services outside the regular classroom for a significant amount of time.**Five-year averages of previous kindergarten enrollments are used to project kindergarten enrollment.
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1996
1997
Ang
ier
752
1953
408
408
394
429
414
424
400
375
384
413
412
419
409
410
439
436
441
469
428
430
430
436
423
Bow
en50
220
1333
830
135
434
932
830
930
029
128
331
234
835
036
436
640
341
342
642
841
041
442
141
040
9B
urr
496
1967
338
313
256
232
218
264
236
229
211
204
210
238
249
260
304
299
302
323
275
294
287
292
273
Cab
ot53
919
6740
638
837
334
931
530
641
035
134
233
633
736
236
238
742
444
947
047
344
343
142
041
741
2C
arr
401
1963
295
290
271
269
235
Cla
flin
420
1960
349
314
283
253
231
215
Cou
ntry
side
557
1959
302
302
231
218
349
338
347
316
303
379
394
418
436
451
458
474
500
497
461
477
446
449
469
Dav
is35
219
6127
927
327
625
624
7E
mer
son
345
1955
276
245
222
201
Fra
nklin
601
1961
460
445
420
388
389
478
399
394
388
345
338
334
331
347
364
382
361
360
332
350
346
366
379
Ham
ilton
222
1960
144
147
126
Hor
ace
Man
n42
720
1329
527
025
222
821
631
730
128
726
126
825
824
927
628
729
932
331
832
428
528
829
428
227
3H
yde
669
1952
385
352
350
364
351
341
314
310
301
Linc
oln-
Elio
t43
519
7036
836
134
228
624
432
030
826
923
724
624
223
925
024
928
531
633
835
229
330
633
334
532
1M
ason
-Ric
e62
019
6247
544
542
841
038
436
034
932
128
641
840
241
941
942
343
645
947
548
639
541
740
539
739
5M
emor
ial
536
1953
181
152
Mem
oria
l-S
paul
ding
486
1992
372
349
309
309
301
284
264
372
382
401
415
418
445
449
452
486
426
469
477
454
452
Oak
Hill
Ele
men
tary
450
1962
310
304
323
341
304
274
268
230
207
Pei
rce
429
1960
390
362
341
345
349
355
355
302
290
291
266
253
253
267
282
283
272
292
270
270
259
250
281
Spa
uldi
ng58
719
6126
825
3U
nder
woo
d58
219
7049
746
343
741
139
237
332
829
330
829
129
226
428
027
728
330
331
030
229
531
128
328
528
2W
ard
506
1971
499
500
428
404
371
334
302
278
258
286
279
312
325
354
351
372
378
386
330
342
366
360
335
Will
iam
s37
519
6931
128
127
229
825
823
521
420
921
322
322
121
921
623
824
425
528
430
227
126
125
428
826
9Z
erva
s (f
orm
erly
Bee
thov
en)
350
1964
287
286
242
239
240
238
227
209
213
278
281
258
266
273
280
290
320
325
302
303
288
287
287
Pea
body
(S
PE
D)
37T
ota
l Ele
m7,
898
7,45
56,
993
6,61
96,
144
5,79
05,
359
4,94
84,
749
4,66
24,
662
4,73
54,
851
5,00
75,
297
5,50
35,
647
5,80
55,
216
5,36
35,
309
5,31
85,
260
Cha
nge
-179
-443
-462
-374
-475
-354
-431
-411
-199
-87
073
116
156
290
206
144
158
-589
147
-54
9-5
8%
Cha
nge
-2.2
%-5
.6%
-6.2
%-5
.3%
-7.2
%-5
.8%
-7.4
%-7
.7%
-4.0
%-1
.8%
0.0%
1.6%
2.4%
3.2%
5.8%
3.9%
2.6%
2.8%
-10.
1%2.
8%-1
.0%
0.2%
-1.1
%T
otal
# E
lem
Sch
ools
2323
2221
2018
1717
1715
1515
1515
1515
1515
1515
1515
15
Big
elow
612
1996
589
572
575
529
517
503
482
537
425
350
168
534
567
590
612
522
Bro
wn
(for
mer
ly M
eado
wbr
ook)
1,02
419
6480
082
384
282
281
085
863
665
461
560
059
757
054
855
752
850
862
868
998
994
094
597
464
5D
ay94
720
1378
080
477
872
472
473
477
484
765
260
465
470
968
468
073
079
777
277
075
579
480
885
682
3O
ak H
ill M
iddl
e63
420
1357
2W
arre
n1,
270
1969
883
884
846
763
681
629
606
419
Wee
ks1,
033
1960
675
663
625
563
458
287
To
tal M
idd
le S
cho
ol
3,72
73,
746
3,66
63,
401
3,19
03,
011
2,49
82,
457
1,69
21,
554
1,41
91,
279
1,23
21,
237
1,25
81,
305
1,40
01,
459
2,27
82,
301
2,34
32,
442
2,56
2C
hang
e-9
119
-80
-265
-211
-179
-513
-41
-765
-138
-135
-140
-47
521
4795
5981
923
4299
120
% C
hang
e-2
.4%
0.5%
-2.1
%-7
.2%
-6.2
%-5
.6%
-17.
0%-1
.6%
-31.
1%-8
.2%
-8.7
%-9
.9%
-3.7
%0.
4%1.
7%3.
7%7.
3%4.
2%56
.1%
1.0%
1.8%
4.2%
4.9%
Tot
al #
Mid
dle
Sch
ools
55
55
55
44
33
32
22
22
22
33
33
4
Nor
th2,
976
1972
2,88
52,
741
2,68
52,
621
2,58
42,
471
2,27
52,
075
2,65
92,
540
2,39
02,
195
1,98
31,
771
1,61
71,
589
1,62
31,
691
1,75
71,
765
1,80
81,
867
1,9
11S
outh
1,78
420
071,
332
1,30
01,
211
1,17
81,
132
1,15
41,
503
1,41
81,
311
1,29
81,
229
1,22
61,
174
1,12
71,
104
1,09
11,
058
1,05
51,
109
1,14
21,
220
1,22
31,
211
To
tal H
igh
Sch
oo
l4,
217
4,04
13,
896
3,79
93,
716
3,62
53,
778
3,49
33,
970
3,83
83,
619
3,42
13,
157
2,89
82,
721
2,68
02,
681
2,74
62,
866
2,90
73,
028
3,09
03,
122
Cha
nge
-40
-176
-145
-97
-83
-91
153
-285
477
-132
-219
-198
-264
-259
-177
-41
165
120
4112
162
32%
Cha
nge
-0.9
%-4
.2%
-3.6
%-2
.5%
-2.2
%-2
.4%
4.2%
-7.5
%13
.7%
-3.3
%-5
.7%
-5.5
%-7
.7%
-8.2
%-6
.1%
-1.5
%0.
0%2.
4%4.
4%1.
4%4.
2%2.
0%1.
0%
Gra
nd
To
tal
15,8
4215
,242
14,5
5513
,819
13,0
5012
,426
11,6
3510
,898
10,4
1110
,054
9,70
09,
435
9,24
09,
142
9,27
69,
488
9,72
810
,010
10,3
6010
,571
10,6
8010
,850
10,9
44C
hang
e-3
10-6
00-6
87-7
36-7
69-6
24-7
91-7
37-4
87-3
57-3
54-2
65-1
95-9
813
421
224
028
235
021
110
917
094
% C
hang
e-1
.9%
-3.8
%-4
.5%
-5.1
%-5
.6%
-4.8
%-6
.4%
-6.3
%-4
.5%
-3.4
%-3
.5%
-2.7
%-2
.1%
-1.1
%1.
5%2.
3%2.
5%2.
9%3.
5%2.
0%1.
0%1.
6%0.
9%
* A
ster
isk
deno
tes
chan
ge in
gra
de p
atte
rn
and/
or s
choo
l con
solid
atio
n.
- 8 -
TA
BL
E 2
New
ton
Pub
lic S
choo
lsE
nrol
lmen
t His
tory
and
Pro
ject
ions
by
Sch
ool
1975
to 2
021
Sch
ool N
ame
Pea
k E
nro
llP
eak
Yea
rA
ngie
r75
219
53B
owen
502
2013
Bur
r49
619
67C
abot
539
1967
Car
r40
119
63C
lafli
n42
019
60C
ount
rysi
de55
719
59D
avis
352
1961
Em
erso
n34
519
55F
rank
lin60
119
61H
amilt
on22
219
60H
orac
e M
ann
427
2013
Hyd
e66
919
52Li
ncol
n-E
liot
435
1970
Mas
on-R
ice
620
1962
Mem
oria
l53
619
53M
emor
ial-
Spa
uldi
ng48
619
92O
ak H
ill E
lem
enta
ry45
019
62P
eirc
e42
919
60S
paul
ding
587
1961
Und
erw
ood
582
1970
War
d50
619
71W
illia
ms
375
1969
Zer
vas
(for
mer
ly B
eeth
oven
)35
019
64P
eabo
dy (
SP
ED
)T
ota
l Ele
mC
hang
e%
Cha
nge
Tot
al #
Ele
m S
choo
ls
Big
elow
612
1996
Bro
wn
(for
mer
ly M
eado
wbr
ook)
1,02
419
64D
ay94
720
13O
ak H
ill M
iddl
e63
420
13W
arre
n1,
270
1969
Wee
ks1,
033
1960
To
tal M
idd
le S
cho
ol
Cha
nge
% C
hang
eT
otal
# M
iddl
e S
choo
ls
Nor
th2,
976
1972
Sou
th1,
784
2007
To
tal H
igh
Sch
oo
lC
hang
e%
Cha
nge
Gra
nd
To
tal
Cha
nge
% C
hang
e
* A
ster
isk
deno
tes
chan
ge in
gra
de p
atte
rn
and/
or s
choo
l con
solid
atio
n.
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
433
412
418
412
396
371
363
370
379
401
392
389
375
395
408
417
402
409
416
439
454
463
465
390
377
383
351
336
335
375
386
413
428
435
454
449
448
477
502
475
449
436
433
431
396
394
256
278
270
294
300
303
314
314
333
331
369
379
391
409
415
424
424
412
404
402
405
387
380
393
385
362
360
352
353
357
391
420
424
425
449
452
440
420
419
418
403
388
385
371
374
367
493
499
482
453
455
446
448
463
437
447
479
472
499
490
479
457
466
450
431
426
417
423
415
407
389
390
398
384
397
386
385
414
401
396
402
397
401
396
389
413
424
448
449
453
455
442
297
301
303
313
330
333
337
344
350
348
370
371
373
386
394
427
434
412
412
397
393
393
394
325
285
281
252
220
242
229
282
281
293
284
291
293
317
322
329
337
340
340
348
359
352
354
412
393
364
369
364
352
365
372
372
410
422
428
442
437
438
457
478
492
488
500
494
479
460
448
462
452
417
440
447
427
419
443
449
442
438
459
458
464
429
434
452
450
460
478
484
483
282
271
281
270
271
271
286
306
324
329
338
329
318
316
337
312
306
314
306
292
292
295
289
267
278
264
276
294
276
275
264
288
295
282
262
282
289
310
327
341
326
329
332
333
332
314
319
343
325
304
281
274
262
262
237
247
260
260
269
278
301
289
304
304
308
307
296
286
283
260
258
241
257
260
254
264
275
295
281
276
277
298
302
304
304
292
290
299
304
290
296
307
311
281
281
276
287
284
287
300
332
324
328
326
349
321
325
317
309
308
332
370
393
418
443
5,29
35,
212
5,09
75,
002
4,97
04,
938
4,97
55,
133
5,31
85,
408
5,49
85,
527
5,64
65,
687
5,79
05,
799
5,83
35,
785
5,78
75,
844
5,85
95,
833
5,79
033
-81
-115
-95
-32
-32
3715
818
590
9029
119
4110
39
34-4
82
5715
-26
-43
0.6%
-1.5
%-2
.2%
-1.9
%-0
.6%
-0.6
%0.
7%3.
2%3.
6%1.
7%1.
7%0.
5%2.
2%0.
7%1.
8%0.
2%0.
6%-0
.8%
0.0%
1.0%
0.3%
-0.4
%-0
.7%
1515
1515
1515
1515
1515
1515
1515
1515
1515
1515
1515
15
483
446
465
477
513
520
510
496
495
487
505
527
523
533
531
525
504
509
513
523
524
547
580
749
771
752
735
756
770
787
705
665
644
681
684
666
677
698
743
738
780
790
758
740
745
798
804
804
835
855
822
785
758
768
747
764
747
773
758
845
874
947
932
927
923
993
1,01
31,
024
1,01
857
861
962
062
159
759
856
556
556
755
854
757
260
361
261
663
463
260
261
258
357
858
560
3
2,61
42,
640
2,67
22,
688
2,68
82,
673
2,62
02,
534
2,47
42,
453
2,48
02,
556
2,55
02,
667
2,71
92,
849
2,80
62,
818
2,83
82,
857
2,85
52,
901
2,99
952
2632
160
-15
-53
-86
-60
-21
2776
-611
752
130
-43
1220
19-2
4698
2.0%
1.0%
1.2%
0.6%
0.0%
-0.6
%-2
.0%
-3.3
%-2
.4%
-0.8
%1.
1%3.
1%-0
.2%
4.6%
1.9%
4.8%
-1.5
%0.
4%0.
7%0.
7%-0
.1%
1.6%
3.4%
44
44
44
44
44
44
44
44
44
44
44
4
2,01
92,
123
2,14
42,
190
2,21
92,
169
2,12
12,
047
1,96
41,
911
1,82
91,
802
1,87
11,
877
1,94
02,
015
2,06
02,
107
2,15
42,
165
2,16
62,
197
2,23
31,
240
1,27
31,
333
1,37
01,
399
1,48
71,
552
1,70
11,
745
1,78
41,
763
1,72
21,
708
1,69
11,
721
1,77
81,
804
1,79
81,
801
1,82
21,
875
1,91
91,
879
3,25
93,
396
3,47
73,
560
3,61
83,
656
3,67
33,
748
3,70
93,
695
3,59
23,
524
3,57
93,
568
3,66
13,
793
3,86
43,
905
3,95
53,
987
4,04
14,
116
4,11
213
713
781
8358
3817
75-3
9-1
4-1
03-6
855
-11
9313
271
4150
3254
75-4
4.4%
4.2%
2.4%
2.4%
1.6%
1.1%
0.5%
2.0%
-1.0
%-0
.4%
-2.8
%-1
.9%
1.6%
-0.3
%2.
6%3.
6%1.
9%1.
1%1.
3%0.
8%1.
4%1.
9%-0
.1%
11,1
6611
,248
11,2
4611
,250
11,2
7611
,267
11,2
6811
,415
11,5
0111
,556
11,5
7011
,607
11,7
7511
,922
12,1
7012
,441
12,5
0312
,508
12,5
8012
,688
12,7
551
2,85
012
,901
222
82-2
426
-91
147
8655
1437
168
147
248
271
625
7210
867
9551
2.0%
0.7%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
-0.1
%0.
0%1.
3%0.
8%0.
5%0.
1%0.
3%1.
4%1.
2%2.
1%2.
2%0.
5%0.
0%0.
6%0.
9%0.
5%0.
7%0.
4%
Pro
ject
ed
- 9 -
Actual Projections Using 5 Year Average Ratios**Grade FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
K 877 895 919 915 911 9151 1005 927 943 965 959 9672 992 1,016 938 956 977 9693 977 1,008 1,033 952 970 9924 949 988 1,017 1,046 964 9805 985 953 994 1,025 1,052 967
TOTAL ELEMENTARY 5,785 5,787 5,844 5,859 5,833 5,790 Diff. from Previous Year 2 57 15 -26 -43% Change 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% -0.4% -0.7%
6 963 954 926 961 995 10237 912 970 959 933 970 10038 943 914 972 961 936 973
TOTAL MIDDLE 2,818 2,838 2,857 2,855 2,901 2,999Diff. from Previous Year 20 19 -2 46 98% Change 0.7% 0.7% -0.1% 1.6% 3.4%
9 945 996 967 1027 1017 99010 973 945 995 966 1029 101911 937 976 948 999 970 103312 946 934 973 945 996 966
Spec. Ed. & Post-grads.* 104 104 104 104 104 104TOTAL HIGH 3,905 3,955 3,987 4,041 4,116 4,112Diff. from Previous Year 50 32 54 75 -4% change 1.3% 0.8% 1.4% 1.9% -0.1%GRAND TOTAL 12,508 12,580 12,688 12,755 12,850 12,901Diff. from Previous Year 72 108 67 95 51% Change 0.6% 0.9% 0.5% 0.7% 0.4%*Enrollment numbers and projections include students who receive special education servicesoutside the regular classroom for a significant amount of time.**Five-year averages of previous kindergarten enrollments are used to project kindergarten enrollment.
TABLE 3PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE
FY17-FY21
- 10 -
TA
BL
E 4
New
ton
Pub
lic S
choo
lsE
nrol
lmen
t H
isto
ry a
nd P
roje
ctio
ns b
y G
rade
1975
to
2021
Gra
de19
7519
7619
7719
7819
7919
8019
8119
8219
8319
8419
8519
8619
8719
8819
8919
9019
9119
9219
9319
9419
9519
96K
946
843
750
681
635
612
628
584
647
673
687
726
730
744
827
809
827
874
906
874
837
870
11,
088
1,00
987
380
472
370
265
265
061
768
871
273
474
975
377
385
184
586
592
194
690
487
12
1,07
81,
069
1,01
089
281
275
567
864
964
861
069
269
272
573
875
577
685
184
587
991
892
088
7
31,
114
1,08
01,
042
1,02
287
881
974
667
666
765
961
068
069
373
477
076
777
585
987
088
289
592
5
41,
116
1,10
31,
073
1,01
91,
002
877
797
739
661
649
642
594
677
705
730
782
763
775
850
869
876
886
51,
191
1,10
11,
089
1,05
51,
005
1,00
086
277
469
965
063
463
559
267
869
873
977
275
774
883
884
885
4S
PE
D76
5654
5456
4036
4445
4447
6059
6570
6964
6042
3629
25T
ota
l K-5
6,60
96,
261
5,89
15,
527
5,11
14,
805
4,39
94,
116
3,98
43,
973
4,02
44,
121
4,22
54,
417
4,62
34,
793
4,89
75,
035
5,21
65,
363
5,30
95,
318
Cha
nge
-197
-348
-370
-364
-416
-306
-406
-283
-132
-11
5197
104
192
206
170
104
138
181
147
-54
9%
Cha
nge
-2.9
%-5
.3%
-5.9
%-6
.2%
-7.5
%-6
.0%
-8.4
%-6
.4%
-3.2
%-0
.3%
1.3%
2.4%
2.5%
4.5%
4.7%
3.7%
2.2%
2.8%
3.6%
2.8%
-1.0
%0.
2%
61,
289
1,19
41,
102
1,09
21,
033
985
960
832
765
689
638
614
626
590
674
710
750
770
746
752
825
833
71,
254
1,26
71,
150
1,05
31,
024
982
928
884
787
739
650
610
589
625
599
665
692
717
742
754
729
822
81,
215
1,26
91,
258
1,13
11,
053
1,01
195
893
488
478
673
764
161
358
063
461
467
770
772
875
775
474
2S
PE
D19
1913
1210
511
1421
2932
2830
3225
2631
3562
3835
45T
ota
l 6-8
3,77
73,
749
3,52
33,
288
3,12
02,
983
2,85
72,
664
2,45
72,
243
2,05
71,
893
1,85
81,
827
1,93
22,
015
2,15
02,
229
2,27
82,
301
2,34
32,
442
Cha
nge
8-2
8-2
26-2
35-1
68-1
37-1
26-1
93-2
07-2
14-1
86-1
64-3
5-3
110
583
135
7949
2342
99%
Cha
nge
0.2%
-0.7
%-6
.0%
-6.7
%-5
.1%
-4.4
%-4
.2%
-6.8
%-7
.8%
-8.7
%-8
.3%
-8.0
%-1
.8%
-1.7
%5.
7%4.
3%6.
7%3.
7%2.
2%1.
0%1.
8%4.
2%
91,
239
1,19
11,
245
1,20
51,
103
1,01
398
996
698
089
880
176
370
065
860
766
664
568
973
477
477
374
910
1,36
61,
273
1,22
41,
271
1,22
51,
126
1,02
01,
000
907
964
931
826
753
686
654
615
692
670
709
706
766
762
111,
418
1,33
11,
295
1,21
31,
260
1,21
01,
094
1,01
31,
001
916
902
863
788
739
676
656
617
684
687
659
707
759
121,
384
1,39
21,
331
1,27
61,
192
1,23
21,
219
1,08
21,
009
987
910
908
849
753
720
675
658
629
675
656
672
695
SP
ED
4945
4639
3957
5757
7373
7561
6762
6468
6974
6111
211
012
5T
ota
l 9-1
25,
456
5,23
25,
141
5,00
44,
819
4,63
84,
379
4,11
83,
970
3,83
83,
619
3,42
13,
157
2,89
82,
721
2,68
02,
681
2,74
62,
866
2,90
73,
028
3,09
0C
hang
e-1
21-2
24-9
1-1
37-1
85-1
81-2
59-2
61-1
48-1
32-2
19-1
98-2
64-2
59-1
77-4
11
6512
041
121
62%
Cha
nge
-2.2
%-4
.1%
-1.7
%-2
.7%
-3.7
%-3
.8%
-5.6
%-6
.0%
-3.6
%-3
.3%
-5.7
%-5
.5%
-7.7
%-8
.2%
-6.1
%-1
.5%
0.0%
2.4%
4.4%
1.4%
4.2%
2.0%
Gra
nd
To
tal
15,8
4215
,242
14,5
5513
,819
13,0
5012
,426
11,6
3510
,898
10,4
1110
,054
9,70
09,
435
9,24
09,
142
9,27
69,
488
9,72
810
,010
10,3
6010
,571
10,6
8010
,850
Cha
nge
-310
-600
-687
-736
-769
-624
-791
-737
-487
-357
-354
-265
-195
-98
134
212
240
282
350
211
109
170
% C
hang
e-1
.9%
-3.8
%-4
.5%
-5.1
%-5
.6%
-4.8
%-6
.4%
-6.3
%-4
.5%
-3.4
%-3
.5%
-2.7
%-2
.1%
-1.1
%1.
5%2.
3%2.
5%2.
9%3.
5%2.
0%1.
0%1.
6%
- 11 -
TA
BL
E 4
New
ton
Pub
lic S
choo
lsE
nrol
lmen
t H
isto
ry a
nd P
roje
ctio
ns b
y G
rade
1975
to
2021
Gra
deK 1 2 3 4 5
SP
ED
To
tal K
-5C
hang
e%
Cha
nge
6 7 8S
PE
DT
ota
l 6-8
Cha
nge
% C
hang
e
9 10 11 12S
PE
DT
ota
l 9-1
2C
hang
e%
Cha
nge
Gra
nd
To
tal
Cha
nge
% C
hang
e
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
808
841
787
736
766
792
796
805
867
887
868
830
862
896
895
934
958
938
877
895
919
915
911
915
887
850
866
804
749
805
837
856
853
916
926
950
877
926
940
936
977
999
1,00
592
794
396
595
996
787
389
886
785
781
179
582
883
686
889
595
092
498
990
895
696
694
597
999
21,
016
938
956
977
969
878
874
901
889
849
815
818
831
860
896
892
962
931
1,00
792
398
198
294
697
71,
008
1,03
395
297
099
2
923
876
887
901
896
855
817
819
847
859
897
908
967
932
1,01
793
899
398
094
998
81,
017
1,04
696
498
0
873
938
885
894
916
894
832
811
820
851
858
905
884
960
937
1,02
194
499
198
595
399
41,
025
1,05
296
718
1619
1615
1410
1718
1417
1917
1719
140
00
00
00
05,
260
5,29
35,
212
5,09
75,
002
4,97
04,
938
4,97
55,
133
5,31
85,
408
5,49
85,
527
5,64
65,
687
5,79
05,
799
5,83
35,
785
5,78
75,
844
5,85
95,
833
5,79
0-5
833
-81
-115
-95
-32
-32
3715
818
590
9029
119
4110
39
34-4
82
5715
-26
-43
-1.1
%0.
6%-1
.5%
-2.2
%-1
.9%
-0.6
%-0
.6%
0.7%
3.2%
3.6%
1.7%
1.7%
0.5%
2.2%
0.7%
1.8%
0.2%
0.6%
-0.8
%0.
0%1.
0%0.
3%-0
.4%
-0.7
%
838
846
911
869
858
916
895
829
804
824
828
829
877
863
922
900
978
922
963
954
926
961
995
1,02
383
684
084
393
088
187
590
288
983
681
082
583
682
686
387
592
293
296
391
297
095
993
397
01,
003
828
864
846
851
923
884
867
898
892
837
797
809
848
817
866
889
939
921
943
914
972
961
936
973
6064
4022
2613
94
23
36
57
48
00
00
00
00
2,56
22,
614
2,64
02,
672
2,68
82,
688
2,67
32,
620
2,53
42,
474
2,45
32,
480
2,55
62,
550
2,66
72,
719
2,84
92,
806
2,81
82,
838
2,85
72,
855
2,90
12,
999
120
5226
3216
0-1
5-5
3-8
6-6
0-2
127
76-6
117
5213
0-4
312
2019
-246
984.
9%2.
0%1.
0%1.
2%0.
6%0.
0%-0
.6%
-2.0
%-3
.3%
-2.4
%-0
.8%
1.1%
3.1%
-0.2
%4.
6%1.
9%4.
8%-1
.5%
0.4%
0.7%
0.7%
-0.1
%1.
6%3.
4%
776
869
918
872
868
925
899
892
919
905
877
821
835
904
875
931
954
977
945
996
967
1,02
71,
017
990
748
790
875
888
872
865
933
899
906
911
912
868
846
850
896
886
941
941
973
945
995
966
1,02
91,
019
752
765
755
867
877
887
863
925
898
927
927
902
862
843
843
897
888
964
937
976
948
999
970
1,03
375
475
677
276
586
485
589
086
091
788
291
491
887
987
983
084
591
088
894
693
497
394
599
696
692
7976
8579
8671
9710
884
6583
102
103
124
102
100
9410
410
410
410
410
410
43,
122
3,25
93,
396
3,47
73,
560
3,61
83,
656
3,67
33,
748
3,70
93,
695
3,59
23,
524
3,57
93,
568
3,66
13,
793
3,86
43,
905
3,95
53,
987
4,04
14,
116
4,11
232
137
137
8183
5838
1775
-39
-14
-103
-68
55-1
193
132
7141
5032
5475
-41.
0%4.
4%4.
2%2.
4%2.
4%1.
6%1.
1%0.
5%2.
0%-1
.0%
-0.4
%-2
.8%
-1.9
%1.
6%-0
.3%
2.6%
3.6%
1.9%
1.1%
1.3%
0.8%
1.4%
1.9%
-0.1
%
10,9
4411
,166
11,2
4811
,246
11,2
5011
,276
11,2
6711
,268
11,4
1511
,501
11,5
5611
,570
11,6
0711
,775
11,9
2212
,170
12,4
4112
,503
12,5
0812
,580
12,6
881
2,75
512
,850
12,9
0194
222
82-2
426
-91
147
8655
1437
168
147
248
271
625
7210
867
9551
0.9%
2.0%
0.7%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
-0.1
%0.
0%1.
3%0.
8%0.
5%0.
1%0.
3%1.
4%1.
2%2.
1%2.
2%0.
5%0.
0%0.
6%0.
9%0.
5%0.
7%0.
4%
Pro
ject
ed
- 12 -
TABLE 5COMPARISON OF ACTUAL AND PROJECTED 5 YEAR ENROLLMENT CHANGE
2010-11 TO 2015-16 AND 2015-16 TO 2020-21
School2010-11
Enrollment2015-16
EnrollmentChange
% Change
2015-16 Enrollment
2020-21 Enrollment
Change%
Change
Angier 375 409 34 9.1% 409 465 56 13.7%Bowen 449 449 0 0.0% 449 394 -55 -12.2%Burr 391 412 21 5.4% 412 380 -32 -7.8%Cabot 452 403 -49 -10.8% 403 367 -36 -8.9%Countryside 499 450 -49 -9.8% 450 415 -35 -7.8%Franklin 397 424 27 6.8% 424 442 18 4.2%Horace Mann 373 412 39 10.5% 412 394 -18 -4.4%Lincoln-Eliot 293 340 47 16.0% 340 354 14 4.1%Mason-Rice 442 492 50 11.3% 492 460 -32 -6.5%Memorial-Spaulding 459 452 -7 -1.5% 452 483 31 6.9%Peirce 318 314 -4 -1.3% 314 289 -25 -8.0%Underwood 282 326 44 15.6% 326 314 -12 -3.7%Ward 269 304 35 13.0% 304 283 -21 -6.9%Williams 298 290 -8 -2.7% 290 307 17 5.9%Zervas 349 308 -41 -11.7% 308 443 135 43.8%TOTAL ELEMENTARY 5,646 5,785 139 2.5% 5,785 5,790 5 0.1%
Bigelow 523 509 -14 -2.7% 509 580 71 13.9%Brown 666 780 114 17.1% 780 798 18 2.3%Day 758 927 169 22.3% 927 1,018 91 9.8%Oak Hill 603 602 -1 -0.2% 602 603 1 0.2%TOTAL MIDDLE 2,550 2,818 268 10.5% 2,818 2,999 181 6.4%
Newton North 1,871 2,107 236 12.6% 2,107 2,233 126 6.0%Newton South 1,708 1,798 90 5.3% 1,798 1,879 81 4.5%TOTAL HIGH SCHOOL 3,579 3,905 326 9.1% 3,905 4,112 207 5.3%
TOTAL ENROLLMENT 11,775 12,508 733 6.2% 12,508 12,901 393 3.1%
- 13 -
Yea
rG
rade
s K
-5G
rade
s 6-
8G
rade
s 9-
12S
yste
m-W
ide
Tot
al%
Cha
nge
# C
hang
eT
otal
% C
hang
e#
Cha
nge
Tot
al%
Cha
nge
# C
hang
eT
otal
% C
hang
e#
Cha
nge
2009
-201
05,
527
0.5%
292,
556
0.6%
143,
524
-1.8
%-6
811
,607
-0.2
%-2
5
2010
-201
15,
646
2.2%
119
2,55
0-0
.2%
-63,
579
1.6%
5511
,775
1.4%
168
2011
-201
25,
687
0.7%
412,
667
4.6%
117
3,56
8-0
.3%
-11
11,9
22
1.
2%14
7
2012
-201
35,
790
1.8%
103
2,71
91.
9%52
3,66
12.
6%93
12,1
70
2.
1%24
8
2013
-201
45,
799
0.2%
92,
849
4.8%
130
3,79
33.
6%13
212
,441
2.2%
271
2014
-201
55,
833
0.6%
342,
806
-1.5
%-4
33,
864
1.9%
7112
,503
0.5%
62
2015
-201
65,
785
-0.8
%-4
82,
818
0.4%
123,
905
1.1%
4112
,508
0.0%
5
2016
-201
75,
787
0.0%
22,
838
0.7%
203,
955
1.3%
5012
,580
0.6%
72
2017
-201
85,
844
1.0%
572,
857
0.7%
193,
987
0.8%
3212
,688
0.9%
108
2018
-201
95,
859
0.3%
152,
855
-0.1
%-2
4,04
11.
4%54
12,7
55
0.
5%67
2019
-202
05,
833
-0.4
%-2
62,
901
1.6%
464,
116
1.9%
7512
,850
0.7%
95
2020
-202
15,
790
-0.7
%-4
32,
999
3.4%
984,
112
-0.1
%-4
12,9
01
0.
4%51
% C
hang
e 20
09-2
010
to
2020
-202
14.
8%17
.3%
16.7
%11
.1%
% C
hang
e 20
09-2
010
to
2015
-201
64.
7%10
.3%
10.8
%7.
8%
% C
hang
e 20
15-2
016
to
2020
-202
10.
1%6.
4%5.
3%3.
1%
TA
BL
E 6
PE
RC
EN
T O
F C
HA
NG
E B
Y G
RA
DE
SP
AN
2009
-201
0 T
O 2
020-
2021
- 14 -
Difference from %Year Enrollment Previous Year Change1967 18,4241977 14,555 –687 –4.5%1978 13,819 –736 –5.1%1979 13,050 –769 –5.6%1980 12,426 –624 –4.8%1981 11,635 –791 –6.4%1982 10,898 –737 –6.3%1983 10,411 –487 –4.5%1984 10,054 –357 –3.4%1985 9,700 –354 –3.5%1986 9,435 –265 –2.7%1987 9,240 –195 –2.1%1988 9,142 –98 –1.1%1989 9,276 +134 +1.5%1990 9,488 +212 +2.3%1991 9,728 +240 +2.5%1992 10,010 +282 +2.9%1993 10,360 +350 +3.5%1994 10,571 +211 +2.0%1995 10,680 +109 +1.0%1996 10,850 +170 +1.6%1997 10,944 +94 +0.9%1998 11,166 +222 +2.0%1999 11,248 +82 +0.7%2000 11,246 –2 +0.0%2001 11,250 +4 +0.0%2002 11,276 +26 +0.2%2003 11,267 –9 -0.1%2004 11,268 +1 0.0%2005 11,415 +147 1.3%2006 11,501 +86 0.8%2007 11,556 +55 0.5%2008 11,570 +14 0.1%2009 11,607 +37 0.3%2010 11,775 +168 1.4%2011 11,922 +147 1.2%2012 12,170 +248 2.1%2013 12,441 +271 2.2%2014 12,503 +62 0.5%2015 12,508 +5 0.0%
PROJECTED2016 12,580 +72 +0.6%2017 12,688 +108 +0.9%2018 12,755 +67 +0.5%2019 12,850 +95 +0.7%2020 12,901 +51 +0.4%
Note: Peak enrollment year is in bold
TABLE 7 ACTUAL SYSTEM ENROLLMENT CHANGE 1977-2015
- 15 -
Difference from %Year Enrollment Previous Year Change1961 10,0101981 5,359 –431 –7.4%1982 4,948 –411 –7.7%1983 4,749 –199 –4.0%1984 4,662 –87 –1.8%1985 4,662 +0 +0.0%1986 4,735 +73 +1.6%1987 4,851 +116 +2.4%1988 5,007 +156 +3.2%1989 5,297 +290 +5.8%1990 5,503 +206 +3.9%1991 5,647 +144 +2.6%1992 5,805 +158 +2.7%1993* 5,216 –589 –11.3%1994 5,363 +147 +2.7%1995 5,309 –54 –1.0%1996 5,318 +9 +0.2%1997 5,260 –58 –1.1%1998 5,293 +33 +0.6%1999 5,212 –81 –1.5%2000 5,097 –115 –2.2%2001 5,002 –95 –1.9%2002 4,970 –32 –0.6%2003 4,938 –32 –0.6%2004 4,975 +37 +0.7%2005 5,133 +158 +3.2%2006 5,318 +185 +3.6%2007 5,408 +90 +1.7%2008 5,498 +90 +1.7%2009 5,527 +29 +0.5%2010 5,646 +119 +2.2%2011 5,687 +41 +0.7%2012 5,790 +103 +1.8%2013 5,799 +9 +0.2%2014 5,833 +34 +0.6%2015 5,785 –48 –0.8%
PROJECTED2016 5,787 +2 +0.0%2017 5,844 +57 +1.0%2018 5,859 +15 +0.3%2019 5,833 –26 –0.4%2020 5,790 –43 –0.7%
Note: Peak enrollment year is in bold*Grade organization changed from K-6 to K-5 configuration
ACTUAL ELEMENTARY SCHOOL ENROLLMENT CHANGE 1981-2015
TABLE 8
- 16 -
Difference from %
Year Enrollment Previous Year Change
1984 5,392 –270 –4.8%
1985 5,038 –354 –6.6%
1986 4,700 –338 –6.7%
1987 4,389 –311 –6.6%
1988 4,135 –254 –5.8%
1989 3,979 –156 –3.8%
1990 3,985 +6 +0.2%
1991 4,081 +96 +2.4%
1992 4,205 +124 +3.0%
1993* 5,144 +939 +22.3%
1994 5,208 +64 +1.2%
1995 5,371 +163 +3.1%
1996 5,532 +161 +3.0%
1997 5,684 +152 +2.7%
1998 5,873 +189 +3.3%
1999 6,036 +163 +2.8%
2000 6,149 +113 +1.9%
2001 6,248 +99 +1.6%
2002 6,306 +58 +0.9%
2003 6,329 +23 +0.4%
2004 6,293 –36 –0.6%
2005 6,282 –11 –0.2%
2006 6,183 –99 –1.6%
2007 6,148 –35 –0.6%
2008 6,072 –76 –1.2%
2009 6,080 +8 +0.1%
2010 6,129 +49 +0.8%
2011 6,235 +106 +1.7%
2012 6,380 +145 +2.3%
2013 6,642 +262 +4.1%
2014 6,670 +28 +0.4%
2015 6,723 +53 +0.8%
Projections
Grades Grades Total Difference from %
Year 6-8 9-12 Enrollment Previous Year Change
2016 2,838 3,955 6,793 +70 +1.0%
2017 2,857 3,987 6,844 +51 +0.8%
2018 2,855 4,041 6,896 +52 +0.8%
2019 2,901 4,116 7,017 +121 +1.8%
2020 2,999 4,112 7,111 +94 +1.3%
*Secondary school enrollments reflect a change in grade configuration from 7-8 to 6-8 at
the middle school level.
SECONDARY ENROLLMENT CHANGE 1984 THROUGH 2015 ACTUAL AND 2020 PROJECTED
TABLE 9
- 17 -
II. ENROLLMENT PROJECTION METHOD
Kindergarten Projection Methodology
NESDEC Comparison
Accuracy of Projections
Frequently Asked Questions
II. ENROLLMENT PROJECTION METHOD The enrollment projections are prepared by combining the current year’s official enrollment as reported on October 1, 2015 to the Department of Elementary and Secondary Education with other available demographic data for Newton. These data are then applied to a spreadsheet model of five-year average cohort survival ratios. The projections are calculated on an individual school and grade basis and then aggregated into system-wide projections. Just as in recent years, five-year cohort survival ratios for grades 1 through 12 are used in this projection. Adjusted straight five-year averages are used for kindergarten this year as explained later in this section. A cohort is defined as a group of students of a specific age or grade level who are at a specific school or are all going to the same school in the next year. Non-resident students are not included in the base for the cohort calculation, but are added to the total after the calculation. Next year's 6th graders at Oak Hill Middle School, for example, are made up of the 5th grade cohorts from Bowen, Memorial-Spaulding and Zervas. The five-year average cohort survival ratio for schools entering Oak Hill is 0.94. There are 217 resident students in the group described above. The cohort calculation therefore yields 204 (217 x 0.94) students. Nine current non-resident students are added to this total, resulting in the final projection of 213 students for students entering the 6th grade at Oak Hill next year.
The following factors are integrated in the forecast: All current School Committee policies on school feeder patterns, split
districts, district boundaries and buffer zones. All feeder patterns reflect current policies. Student assignment policy changes for the Angier and Zervas districts, and affecting nearby school districts, were approved in September 2015 and are fully integrated into the forecast.
METCO students are added to each school and grade after the projections are computed. METCO students who will enter the system in kindergarten, grade one or grade two each year for the next five years are also included in the individual school tables by grade.
Number of entering middle and high school students are based on percentages of students from lower grade level schools to reflect districting, split districts, and buffer zones.
Number of potential students from residential properties (when building permits have been issued by the City of Newton).
Kindergarten Projection Methodology
The following two charts provide data on kindergarten enrollment. The first chart shows the highest kindergarten populations of the past forty years. The 2015-16 kindergarten class of 877 students departs from recent experience of classes close to or in excess of 900. The kindergarten projection had a variance this year of 45 fewer students, or -4.9%. Last year, there was an equal variance in the kindergarten projection in the opposite direction, 43 students and +4.8%. The smaller kindergarten class of 2015-16 is a single year among several historic high classes and exceeds the 20 and 40 year average kindergarten class sizes. The second chart illustrates the rising trend over time of how Newton’s four-year old population (as per City census data) relates to the kindergarten population. The current ratio
- 18 -
of 1.55 is the third highest of the past decade and is a result of the relatively low city census data of children age 4, at 567 children, resulting in the 877 kindergarten students. Note that the ratio of children age 4 to the following year’s kindergarten has been steadily rising since 2003 driven by lower numbers of 4 year olds documented on the city census and kindergarten classes that, for the most part, have been growing.
Next year’s kindergarten projection of 895 students is calculated using an adjusted straight five-year average of the previous kindergarten enrollments. An adjustment of 18 kindergarten students was made by lowering the kindergarten projection by 1 or 2 students at all schools except for Angier and Zervas. The rationale for this adjustment is a lower birth rate in 2010 of 787 children versus 806 births in 2009; birth rates have been over 800 children in each of the previous four years. Resident births to kindergarten ratios are displayed in Table 10 below. Comparing each year’s kindergarten population to the number of state recorded Newton births five years prior yields a birth to kindergarten ratio. This year’s ratio of 1.11 is the third lowest of the past five years. In the year 2005, a similar number of resident births occurred and the kindergarten class five years later was also under 900 students.
Highest Kindergarten Populations of Past 40 YearsTime Period Number of K Students
1971-72 1,0631972-73 1,0101974-75 9981973-74 9682013-14 9581975-76 9462015-16 877
40 year average 79820 year average 851
10 year average 895
Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
4-year olds 828 796 767 770 723 744 683 686 705 708 682 615 554 567K population 792 796 805 867 887 868 830 862 896 895 934 958 938 877
Ratio 0.96 1.00 1.05 1.13 1.23 1.17 1.22 1.26 1.27 1.26 1.37 1.56 1.69 1.55
Age Four to Kindergarten Ratio
Birth Year 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010# of Births 874 886 834 822 759 844 788 812 815 907 806 787Kindergarten Year 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Kindergarten 805 867 887 868 830 862 896 895 934 958 938 877Ratio 0.92 0.98 1.06 1.06 1.09 1.02 1.14 1.10 1.15 1.06 1.16 1.11*Data source is the Massachusetts Department of Public Health, Vital Statistics (obtained through NESDEC).
Births to Kindergarten Ratios
TABLE 10Resident Births to Kindergarten Ratios
Using State Data*
- 19 -
To project kindergarten enrollment in future years, a five-year average of previous kindergarten populations is used. The straight average method is used because city census data of children age 4 and age 3 are low again this year and have been demonstrated in recent years to not be a good predictor of the number of kindergarten students one or two years later. For example, using city census data of the number of children age 4 to project next year’s kindergarten yields 807 students. Similarly, using city census data of the number of children age 3 to project kindergarten with the same adjustment factor yields 735 students.
NESDEC Comparison The enrollment analysis report includes projections for the Newton Public Schools from NESDEC (the New England School Development Council). In total by all grade levels, NESDEC’s enrollment projections for 2016-17 are close to Newton’s projections with a difference of 24 students mostly at the elementary and middle school grade level. NESDEC’s kindergarten projection for next year is within 2 students of Newton’s projection. Please see Table 11 of Appendix E. There is a greater divergence between Newton and NESDEC’s projections in the final three years of the projection. The total variances by year between this report and NESDEC’s projections are +24 and +42 for 2016-17 and 2017-18 and +81, +131 and +152 for the final three years through 2020-2021, with Newton being higher. The kindergarten variances by year between this report and NESDEC’s projections for the next five years are also quite close in the first two years, at +2 and -4, and increase in the final three years to +11, +13 and +9. NESDEC uses a five-year average of Newton resident birth data to project kindergarten enrollment five years later; to project kindergarten enrollment in later years including 2019-20 and 2020-21, NESDEC uses estimated numbers of births for calendar year 2014 and 2015. NESDEC’s kindergarten projection next year is 893 students, close to Newton’s projection of 895 students. There are two additional differences between NESDEC’s projection methodology and Newton’s. First, NESDEC’s projections are calculated by total grade rather than by school and by grade. Second, NESDEC uses mostly three-year cohort survival ratios among all grades whereas Newton uses a five-year ratio for grades K through 12. NESDEC’s three year average weights more heavily the recent years during which net move-ins to Newton have slowed. This contributes to the lower projections NESDEC is making three, four and five years hence. Also in contrast to NESDEC, Newton has made an adjustment to projections in the three final years of the projection which is the addition of 41 students anticipated from the Kessler Woods and Court Street developments.
Accuracy of Projections Several tables are included to show how accurately the projections match actual enrollment. Table 11 shows the projections for the current year (2015-16) by grade level as predicted one, two and three years ago.
- 20 -
Overall, the October 1, 2015 actual enrollment of 12,508 students is 175 students less than projected in the November 2014 Enrollment Analysis Report, a -1.4% variance from projection. For comparison, variances from projection during the last three years were -0.7% in 2014-15, 0.0% in 2013-14 and 0.5% in 2012-13. In the past 15 years, Newton has had six negative variances when actual enrollment has been lower than projected enrollment like is the case this year. More commonly in this time period, the actual enrollment has been higher than the projection. This year, all three grade levels are enrolled at lower than anticipated levels with 74, 34 and 67 fewer students at the elementary, middle and high school grade levels respectively, variances ranging from -1.2% to -0.7%. Table 12 provides a one-page summary of last year’s projections by school. Of the nine elementary schools that had enrollments lower than projected, Bowen and Horace Mann had the largest variances of -7.4% (36 fewer students) and -7.0% (31 fewer students), respectively. Burr, Cabot, Underwood and Zervas all had negative variances greater than 2% and enrolled 9 to 14 fewer students than expected. Mason-Rice and Williams were among the schools with more students enrolled than projected; these schools enrolled 16 and 14 more students, or 3.4% and 5.1% respectively. Bigelow and Day both varied from projection by more than 2% with Day having the greatest variance of -5.0% and 49 fewer students. Newton South enrolled six fewer students than in the prior year which resulted in an enrollment that varied from projection by -2.3%, or 42 students. Table 13 provides school and grade detail comparing the 2015-16 enrollment to the projections made last year. This table illustrates that kindergarten through third grades had the highest variances from projection; grades one through three had projection variances at or over 2% and kindergarten had the highest projection variance of -4.9% and 45 fewer students. It is notable that the prior year’s kindergarten was under-projected to the same degree by 43 students and 4.8%. At the middle school level, the projection for grade six was the most accurate at 0.4% while the projection for grade 8 had a -2.5% variance, or 24 fewer students. Two grades at the high school had the greatest variance from projection. Grade nine was enrolled with 38 fewer students than projected (-3.9%) and grade twelve had 22 fewer students enrolled (-2.3%) than were projected.
TABLE 11Projection History for 2015-16 (FY16)
Date Projected Elementary Middle High School TotalFall 2012 5,975 2,882 3,918 12,775Fall 2013 5,870 2,869 4,019 12,758Fall 2014 5,859 2,852 3,972 12,683Actual Fall 2015 5,785 2,818 3,905 12,508
- 21 -
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- 22 -
Angier Bowen Burr Cabot Countryside
Actual 15/16
Proj. 15/16
Actual 15/16
Proj. 15/16
Actual 15/16
Proj. 15/16
Actual 15/16
Proj. 15/16
Actual 15/16
Proj. 15/16
K 62 65 59 74 63 70 52 66 70 711 74 69 67 68 70 71 69 65 75 752 70 72 99 103 80 82 62 57 63 673 70 67 71 86 62 67 76 80 76 674 59 66 71 72 68 68 66 70 76 785 74 73 82 82 69 68 78 75 90 89
Total 409 412 449 485 412 426 403 413 450 447
Actual 15/16
Proj. 15/16
Actual 15/16
Proj. 15/16
Actual 15/16
Proj. 15/16
Actual 15/16
Proj. 15/16
Actual 15/16
Proj. 15/16
K 67 66 57 69 58 54 81 74 77 721 87 78 65 68 56 56 96 85 81 852 73 81 68 68 63 64 91 98 74 693 71 66 69 78 51 53 86 84 68 724 74 69 84 87 52 55 66 63 69 705 52 56 69 73 60 58 72 72 83 79
Total 424 416 412 443 340 340 492 476 452 447
Actual 15/16
Proj. 15/16
Actual 15/16
Proj. 15/16
Actual 15/16
Proj. 15/16
Actual 15/16
Proj. 15/16
Actual 15/16
Proj. 15/16
K 41 50 41 49 43 45 62 45 44 521 56 52 66 63 49 52 41 40 53 522 44 47 51 54 57 57 43 46 54 553 50 47 55 59 57 54 61 61 54 564 68 65 55 53 53 55 45 43 43 415 55 54 58 59 45 46 38 41 60 61
Total 314 315 326 337 304 309 290 276 308 317
GradeActual 15/16
Proj. 15/16
K 877 922 -45 -4.9%1 1005 979 26 2.7%2 992 1020 -28 -2.7%3 977 997 -20 -2.0%4 949 955 -6 -0.6%5 985 986 -1 -0.1%
Total 5,785 5,859 -74 -1.3%
M-Spaulding
Zervas
Mason-RiceFranklin
Peirce Williams
Grade
% Diff.
Grade
TOTAL ELEM.
Lincoln-Eliot
Underwood Ward
Horace Mann
N Diff
Bowen Burr Cabot
TABLE 13ACTUAL AND PROJECTED ELEMENTARY ENROLLMENTS BY SCHOOL 2015-16
Countryside
Grade
Angier
- 23 -
Actual 15/16
Proj. 15/16
Actual 15/16
Proj. 15/16
Actual 15/16
Proj. 15/16
Actual 15/16
Proj. 15/16
6 179 173 284 279 308 328 192 1797 161 158 254 257 289 301 208 2108 169 167 242 245 330 347 202 208
Total 509 498 780 781 927 976 602 597
Actual 15/16
Proj. 15/16
963 959 4 0.4%912 926 -14 -1.5%943 967 -24 -2.5%
2,818 2,852 -34 -1.2%
Actual 15/16
Proj. 15/16
Actual 15/16
Proj. 15/16
Actual 15/16
Proj. 15/16
9 507 508 438 475 945 983 -38 -3.9%10 537 540 436 442 973 982 -9 -0.9%11 484 494 453 451 937 945 -8 -0.8%12 497 512 449 456 946 968 -22 -2.3%
Sp. Ed. 82 78 22 16 104 94 10 10.6%Total 2,107 2,132 1,798 1,840 3,905 3,972 -67 -1.7%
5,785 5,859 -74 -1.3%2,818 2,852 -34 -1.2%3,905 3,972 -67 -1.7%12,508 12,683 -175 -1.4%
TABLE 13 (CONT.)ACTUAL AND PROJECTED SECONDARY ENROLLMENTS BY SCHOOL 2015-16
%Diff.Division
Actual 15/16
Proj. 15/16
N Diff.
N Diff.Grade
Bigelow
Grade
Brown
Grade
TOTAL MIDDLEN
Diff.%
Diff.
Total
Day
ElementaryMiddleHigh
Oak Hill
6
% Diff.
TOTAL HIGH
8Total
SouthNorth
7
- 24 -
Act
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Pro
j.P
roj.
Gra
de09
/10
09/1
010
/11
10/1
111
/12
11/1
212
/13
12/1
313
/14
13/1
414
/15
14/1
515
/16
15/1
616
/17
17/1
818
/19
19/2
020
/21
K86
280
289
684
889
590
093
490
395
896
293
889
287
792
289
591
991
591
191
51
877
876
926
902
940
941
936
945
977
984
999
1007
1005
979
927
943
965
959
967
298
996
790
890
495
694
996
697
494
596
597
910
0899
210
2010
1693
895
697
796
93
931
940
1007
1007
923
920
981
970
982
994
946
966
977
997
1008
1033
952
970
992
496
797
293
294
110
1710
1293
893
099
310
0098
099
494
995
598
810
1710
4696
498
05
884
912
960
972
937
931
1021
1016
944
946
991
993
985
986
953
994
1025
1052
967
Sp.
Ed.
1719
1717
1917
1419
00
00
00
00
00
0T
otal
5,52
75,
488
5,64
65,
591
5,68
75,
670
5,79
05,
757
5,79
95,
851
5,83
35,
860
5,78
55,
859
5,78
75,
844
5,85
95,
833
5,79
06
877
895
863
870
922
940
900
909
978
997
922
911
963
959
954
926
961
995
1023
782
683
486
388
487
586
592
292
593
290
796
398
691
292
697
095
993
397
010
038
848
833
817
826
866
859
889
872
939
928
921
941
943
967
914
972
961
936
973
Sp.
Ed.
56
75
47
84
00
00
00
00
00
0T
otal
2,55
62,
568
2,55
02,
585
2,66
72,
671
2,71
92,
710
2,84
92,
832
2,80
62,
838
2,81
82,
852
2,83
82,
857
2,85
52,
901
2,99
99
835
834
904
874
875
851
931
910
954
938
977
999
945
983
996
967
1027
1017
990
1084
682
385
084
289
691
288
688
394
194
094
196
797
398
294
599
596
610
2910
1911
862
873
843
851
843
855
897
895
888
884
964
939
937
945
976
948
999
970
1033
1287
989
487
985
183
083
684
583
591
089
388
888
694
696
893
497
394
599
696
6S
p.E
d.10
283
103
102
124
103
102
124
100
102
9410
010
494
104
104
104
104
104
Tot
al3,
524
3,50
73,
579
3,52
03,
568
3,55
73,
661
3,64
73,
793
3,75
73,
864
3,89
13,
905
3,97
23,
955
3,98
74,
041
4,11
64,
112
K-1
2T
OT
AL
11,6
0711
,563
11,7
7511
,696
11,9
2211
,898
12,1
7012
,114
12,4
4112
,440
12,5
0312
,589
12,5
0812
,683
12,5
8012
,688
12,7
5512
,850
12,9
01%
Cha
nge
0.4%
0.7%
0.2%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.7
%-1
.4%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
TA
BL
E 1
4A
CT
UA
L A
ND
PR
OJE
CT
ED
K-1
2 E
NR
OL
LM
EN
TS
200
9-10
TO
202
0-21
- 25 -
Frequently Asked Questions
1. Why do we need to know how many students may be attending each school in Newton in future years?
Enrollment projections are useful for decision-making and planning especially in light of continuing significant enrollment growth. With growing shortages of space at the elementary and middle schools, and with increased demand on local financial resources, accurate projections have become increasingly important. Carefully crafted, presented and interpreted projections are a key first step in the planning process. The district is then able to plan the budgets, including capital improvements, classroom space requirements, sufficient teacher workforce and staffing, instructional materials, transportation and so forth. Accurate projections alert the district to changes in school population to allow for needed adjustments. In addition to the projections, school principals provide critical data on enrollments and registrations each spring.
2. Why can’t the principals count the students who are in their school and add the students who are coming next year?
This technique may work very well in small, stable communities for a single year's projection. However, larger communities like Newton, with a need for long-term planning, require more complex approaches in order to forecast enrollment trends some years into the future. Research done on Newton’s high school enrollment showed that a significant number of students enter and exit the system during the school year and during each summer. Reliance on class lists would provide a less accurate picture than the use of a statistical model that accounts for movements in and out of each school and the system as a whole. It is worth noting that Newton’s elementary school principals submit expected numbers of pupils in May and June so that planning for classrooms and teaching staff can proceed with the most recent information.
3. How complex are projection methods?
Enrollment projection procedures are somewhat complex, but, like most statistical methods, they can be explained and replicated. For example, last year (2014-15) in the Peirce district there were 48 kindergarten students. This year (2015-16), in the same district, there are 56 first grade students. Not including the two non-resident students in grade one, this movement yields a ratio of 1.13 (54 divided by 48). This ratio is averaged with the ratios of the previous four years. The resulting ratio of 1.06 is multiplied by the current number of kindergarten students (38), to calculate the projected number of first graders for next year (40), plus four non-resident students, for a total of 44 students. These forecasts help communities to better understand the impact of trends and changes in enrollment, migration and births on school population. All projections are based on underlying assumptions that use historical school enrollment and census data.
4. What procedures are used in other school systems across the United States?
Most school systems use the “Cohort Survival” method, or some variation, as the technique to provide enrollment forecasts. The basic unit used in this technique is the ratio, a measure that expresses the relative size of two numbers. The cohort survival ratio
- 26 -
method models and calculates the flow of a cohort or age group of pupils through the system from one grade to the next over a number of years.
The ratios are influenced by several variables--census data, birth rates, student entrances, exits and transfers, non-public school enrollment patterns, frequency of promotions or retentions, drop-out rates, the proportion of the city school-age population, housing patterns, the number of building permits issued, and other urban trends. Because these variables change from year to year and from school to school, an average ratio of three to five years is used to project for the future. The more stable the community or the individual school neighborhood, the easier and more reliable the projections.
The advantages of this type of model are: (1) it captures the multiple forces which affect population changes (move-ins, move-outs, transfers between schools); and (2) it distinguishes changes in each age group rather than looking at a composite of all changes.
A limited number of school systems have prepared enrollment forecasts using other procedures. For example, regression analysis utilizing the same predictors - births and past tendencies of school children to advance from one grade to the next - can be employed. Other methods include: Growth technique (establishes a district level enrollment curve based on ratios, migration, retention, drop-outs, private school enrollment, etc.); historical comparison of dwellings to enrollment used to base projections; method of analogy (analysis of national trends or local growth influence on district enrollment); and the multiple factor method (study of social and economic factors’ influence on enrollment).
5. What procedure historically has been utilized in Newton?
The cohort survival ratio method for system-wide projections with adjustments, if appropriate, at the school level has been used for many years. In the past, a combination of three-year and five-year average ratios has been used. This report includes five-year ratios for grades 1 through 12 in order to provide a consistent timeframe for the model across all schools and to take advantage of a full five years of growth. A five-year adjusted average of previous kindergarten classroom populations is used for the 2016-17 kindergarten projection. Within the past few years’ kindergarten projections, Newton has used city census data for the number of children aged 3 years as compared to the kindergarten population two years hence. This year’s city census data was too low to formulate a reasonable kindergarten projection.
6. How accurate are projections?
The quality of the data obviously influences the accuracy of the projections. Cohort survival relies on data that is usually readily available and reasonably reliable - census data on births and past enrollments.
"Goodness of fit," a measure of the percentage of error, is determined by dividing the actual enrollment figure by the projected enrollment figure for each level. The errors are the magnitude of the percentage difference between projected and actual enrollments. A small percentage of error is preferred. Research literature indicates that total school district enrollment may be projected with an accuracy of plus or minus 1%, yet an individual school's error rate might exceed 10%. Past system-wide error rates in Newton have been
- 27 -
low, at around +/-1%, while grade level and school based projections have been significantly higher. Tables 12, 13 and 14 show the accuracy of projections at the system level and also school by school and grade by grade.
In summary, short-term projections are generally more accurate than long-term projections. Projections for districts with larger enrollments are more accurate than those for smaller dis-tricts. System-wide projections are more accurate than individual school projections. Error is especially important to consider when reviewing the data beyond five years in the future. These projections, at best, provide only the direction or trend enrollments will take into the 2020’s. This is because beyond the fourth year of the projection, elementary enrollments must be based on predicted births in calendar year that is not yet complete, and for which data has not yet been 100% collected. Secondary level enrollments can be projected beyond that point with a greater assurance of reliability.
- 28 -
III. ENROLLMENT HISTORY
Grade-by-Grade Analysis
A Comparison to Peak Enrollment Years
III. ENROLLMENT HISTORY
This section of the report looks at historical enrollment patterns in two ways. The first is on a grade-by-grade basis, tracking the in-and out-migration of students as each kindergarten class moves through the system. The second provides a look at current enrollment as compared with peak enrollment years.
Grade-by-Grade Analysis
Table 16 shows Newton's historical cohort survival ratios by grade for the twenty-five years from 1991-92 through 2015-16. This table shows the net in-and out-migration patterns for each grade level. Ratios greater than one indicate growth and ratios less than one indicate a decrease in the trend. Over the years, each cohort moving from K-1 has a survival ratio greater than one, indicating net in-migration. This year, the ratio from grade K-1 is the highest of the last five years, at 1.07, underscoring the recent trend of families to move into Newton earlier on in elementary school. The four other elementary school ratios (grades 1-2, 2-3, 3-4, and 4-5) are between 0.99 and 1.01, indicating net enrollment stability. This is a departure from recent years where there has been net in-migration. An average of the ratios from these four elementary grades is 1.00 this year, as it was last year. In all other years since the elementary growth trend began in 2004-05, this average of four ratios has been greater than 1.0.
This year’s ratio of 0.97 from grade 5-6 is considered typical; in past years and in this year, the transition from elementary school to middle school has been marked by net out-migration between grades 5 to 6 as some students leave to enroll in private schools. Conversely, the transition from grade 8 to high school has historically shown a net in-migration as students enter the public school during this transition year. This year’s ratio from grade 8 to grade 9 is 1.03 and compares to last year’s ratio of 1.04 but is lower than the previous four years where the grade 8 to 9 ratio was 1.07 or 1.08.
Table 15 shows the changes in size of each grade from 2014-15 to 2015-16. Only four of the twelve migrations were positive, the largest of which was +67 students from kindergarten to grade 1, followed by +24 students from grade 8 to grade 9. There were negative migrations in middle school, including grade 6 to grade 7 (-10 students) and grade 7 to grade 8 (-20 students), and in high school, from grade 11 to grade 12 (-18 students).
A Comparison to Peak Enrollment Years
North High School enrollment of 2,107 students is the highest since 2004-05, although it has declined by 869 students since the 1972 peak enrollment year. Total 2015-16 enrollment of 12,508 is 68% of the 1967 peak enrollment of 18,424. At the beginning of the current growth trend in 2004, the district’s enrollment of 11,268 students was 61% of the 1967 peak year.
Peak Enrollment Year Number of K -12 Schools K-12 18,424 1967 23 Elementary, 5 Jr. Highs, 2 Sr. Highs K-6 9,887 1960 25 Elementary, 5 Jr. Highs, 2 Sr. Highs, 1 Technical High School North High 2,976 1972 23 Elementary, 5 Jr. Highs, 2 Sr. Highs South High 1,804 2014 15 Elementary, 4 Middle Schools, 2 Sr. Highs
- 29 -
TABLE 15ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE
2014 and 2015
October 1 EnrollmentChanges in Enrollment 2014-2015 to 2015-2016
Grade 2014Net
Migration 2015 N %
K 938 877 -61 -6.5%+67
1 999 1,005 +6 +0.6%-7
2 979 992 +13 +1.3%-2
3 946 977 +31 +3.3%+3
4 980 949 -31 -3.2%+5
5 991 985 -6 -0.6%-28
TOTAL ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS 5,833 5,785 -48 -0.8%
6 922 963 +41 +4.4%-10
7 963 912 -51 -5.3%-20
8 921 943 +22 +2.4%+24
9 977 945 -32 -3.3%-4
10 941 973 +32 +3.4%-4
11 964 937 -27 -2.8%-18
12 888 946 +58 +6.5%
Special Education/Ungraded* 94 104 +10 +10.6%
TOTAL SECONDARY SCHOOLS 6,670 6,723 +53 +0.8%GRAND TOTAL 12,503 12,508 +5 +0.0%
* Includes students who receive special education services outside the regular classroom for a significant amount of time (students in K-8 are reported with their grades).* Includes students who receive special education services beyond grade twelve.
- 30 -
Sch
oo
l Y
ear
K-1
1-2
2-3
3-4
4-5
5-6
6-7
7-8
8-9
9-10
10-1
111
-12
91-9
21.
04
1.
00
1.
00
0.
99
0.
99
1.
01
0.
97
1.
02
1.
05
1.
04
1.
00
1.
00
92
-93
1.05
1.00
1.01
1.00
0.99
1.00
0.96
1.02
1.02
1.04
0.99
1.02
93-9
41.
05
1.
02
1.
03
0.
99
0.
97
0.
99
0.
96
1.
02
1.
04
1.
03
1.
03
0.
99
94
-95
1.04
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.99
1.01
1.01
1.02
1.06
0.96
0.93
0.95
95-9
61.
03
0.
97
0.
97
0.
99
0.
98
0.
98
0.
97
1.
00
1.
02
0.
99
1.
00
1.
02
96
-97
1.04
0.98
1.01
0.99
0.98
0.98
1.00
1.02
0.99
0.99
0.99
0.98
97-9
81.
02
1.
00
0.
99
1.
00
0.
99
0.
98
1.
00
1.
01
1.
05
1.
00
0.
99
0.
99
98
-99
1.05
1.01
1.00
1.00
1.02
0.97
1.00
1.03
1.05
1.02
1.02
1.01
99-0
01.
03
1.
02
1.
00
1.
01
1.
01
0.
97
1.
00
1.
01
1.
06
1.
01
0.
96
1.
01
00
-01
1.02
0.99
1.03
1.00
1.01
0.98
1.02
1.01
1.03
0.97
0.99
1.01
01-0
21.
02
1.
01
0.
99
1.
01
1.
02
0.
96
1.
01
0.
99
1.
02
1.
00
0.
99
1.
00
02
-03
1.05
1.06
1.00
1.01
1.00
1.00
1.02
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.02
0.97
03-0
41.
06
1.
03
1.
03
1.
00
0.
97
1.
00
0.
98
0.
99
1.
02
1.
01
1.
00
1.
00
04
-05
1.08
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.99
1.00
0.99
1.00
1.03
1.00
0.99
1.00
05-0
61.
06
1.
01
1.
03
1.
02
1.
00
0.
99
1.
01
1.
00
1.
02
1.
02
1.
00
0.
99
06
-07
1.06
1.05
1.03
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.01
1.00
1.01
0.99
1.02
0.98
07-0
81.
04
1.
04
1.
00
1.
00
1.
00
0.
97
1.
00
0.
98
1.
05
1.
01
1.
02
0.
99
08
-09
1.09
1.00
1.01
1.02
1.01
0.97
1.01
0.98
1.03
0.99
0.99
0.99
09-1
01.
06
1.
04
1.
01
1.
01
0.
97
0.
97
1.
00
1.
01
1.
03
1.
03
0.
99
0.
97
10
-11
1.07
1.04
1.02
1.00
0.99
0.98
0.98
0.99
1.07
1.02
1.00
1.02
11-1
21.
05
1.
03
1.
02
1.
01
1.
01
0.
96
1.
01
1.
00
1.
07
0.
99
0.
99
0.
98
12
-13
1.05
1.03
1.03
1.02
1.00
0.96
1.00
1.02
1.08
1.01
1.00
1.00
13-1
41.
05
1.
01
1.
02
1.
01
1.
01
0.
96
1.
04
1.
02
1.
07
1.
01
1.
00
1.
01
14
-15
1.04
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.98
0.98
0.99
1.04
0.99
1.02
1.00
15-1
61.
07
0.
99
1.
00
1.
00
1.
01
0.
97
0.
99
0.
98
1.
03
1.
00
1.
00
0.
98
TA
BL
E 1
6H
IST
OR
ICA
L C
OH
OR
T S
UR
VIV
AL
RA
TIO
S B
Y G
RA
DE
- 31 -
TABLE 17 PERCENT OF CHANGE BY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
2009-2010 TO 2020-2021
Year ANGIER SCHOOL BOWEN SCHOOLTotal % Change # Change Total % Change # Change
2009-2010 389 -0.8% -3 454 4.4% 192010-2011 375 -3.6% -14 449 -1.1% -52011-2012 395 5.3% 20 448 -0.2% -12012-2013 408 3.3% 13 477 6.5% 292013-2014 417 2.2% 9 502 5.2% 252014-2015 402 -3.6% -15 475 -5.4% -272015-2016 409 1.7% 7 449 -5.5% -262016-2017 416 1.7% 7 436 -2.9% -132017-2018 439 5.5% 23 433 -0.7% -32018-2019 454 3.4% 15 431 -0.5% -22019-2020 463 2.0% 9 396 -8.1% -352020-2021 465 0.4% 2 394 -0.5% -2% Change
2009-2010 to 2020-2021
19.5% -13.2%
% Change 2009-2010 to
2015-20165.1% -1.1%
Year BURR SCHOOL CABOT SCHOOLTotal % Change # Change Total % Change # Change
2009-2010 379 2.7% 10 449 5.6% 242010-2011 391 3.2% 12 452 0.7% 32011-2012 409 4.6% 18 440 -2.7% -122012-2013 415 1.5% 6 420 -4.5% -202013-2014 424 2.2% 9 419 -0.2% -12014-2015 424 0.0% 0 418 -0.2% -12015-2016 412 -2.8% -12 403 -3.6% -152016-2017 404 -1.9% -8 388 -3.7% -152017-2018 402 -0.5% -2 385 -0.8% -32018-2019 405 0.7% 3 371 -3.6% -142019-2020 387 -4.4% -18 374 0.8% 32020-2021 380 -1.8% -7 367 -1.9% -7% Change
2009-2010 to 2020-2021
0.3% -18.3%
% Change 2009-2010 to
2015-20168.7% -10.2%
- 32 -
TABLE 17 PERCENT OF CHANGE BY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
2009-2010 TO 2020-2021
Year COUNTRYSIDE SCHOOL FRANKLIN SCHOOLTotal % Change # Change Total % Change # Change
2009-2010 472 -1.5% -7 402 1.5% 62010-2011 499 5.7% 27 397 -1.2% -52011-2012 490 -1.8% -9 401 1.0% 42012-2013 479 -2.2% -11 396 -1.2% -52013-2014 457 -4.6% -22 389 -1.8% -72014-2015 466 2.0% 9 413 6.2% 242015-2016 450 -3.4% -16 424 2.7% 112016-2017 431 -4.2% -19 448 5.7% 242017-2018 426 -1.2% -5 449 0.2% 12018-2019 417 -2.1% -9 453 0.9% 42019-2020 423 1.4% 6 455 0.4% 22020-2021 415 -1.9% -8 442 -2.9% -13% Change
2009-2010 to 2020-2021
-12.1% 10.0%
% Change 2009-2010 to
2015-2016-4.7% 5.5%
Year HORACE MANN SCHOOL LINCOLN-ELIOT SCHOOLTotal % Change # Change Total % Change # Change
2009-2010 371 0.3% 1 291 2.5% 72010-2011 373 0.5% 2 293 0.7% 22011-2012 386 3.5% 13 317 8.2% 242012-2013 394 2.1% 8 322 1.6% 52013-2014 427 8.4% 33 329 2.2% 72014-2015 434 1.6% 7 337 2.4% 82015-2016 412 -5.1% -22 340 0.9% 32016-2017 412 0.0% 0 340 0.0% 02017-2018 397 -3.6% -15 348 2.4% 82018-2019 393 -1.0% -4 359 3.2% 112019-2020 393 0.0% 0 352 -1.9% -72020-2021 394 0.3% 1 354 0.6% 2% Change
2009-2010 to 2020-2021
6.2% 21.6%
% Change 2009-2010 to
2015-201611.1% 16.8%
- 33 -
TABLE 17 PERCENT OF CHANGE BY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
2009-2010 TO 2020-2021
Year MASON-RICE SCHOOL MEMORIAL-SPAULDING SCHOOLTotal % Change # Change Total % Change # Change
2009-2010 428 1.4% 6 438 -0.9% -42010-2011 442 3.3% 14 459 4.8% 212011-2012 437 -1.1% -5 458 -0.2% -12012-2013 438 0.2% 1 464 1.3% 62013-2014 457 4.3% 19 429 -7.5% -352014-2015 478 4.6% 21 434 1.2% 52015-2016 492 2.9% 14 452 4.1% 182016-2017 488 -0.8% -4 450 -0.4% -22017-2018 500 2.5% 12 460 2.2% 102018-2019 494 -1.2% -6 478 3.9% 182019-2020 479 -3.0% -15 484 1.3% 62020-2021 460 -4.0% -19 483 -0.2% -1% Change
2009-2010 to 2020-2021
7.5% 10.3%
% Change 2009-2010 to
2015-201615.0% 3.2%
Year PEIRCE SCHOOL UNDERWOOD SCHOOLTotal % Change # Change Total % Change # Change
2009-2010 329 -2.7% -9 262 -7.1% -202010-2011 318 -3.3% -11 282 7.6% 202011-2012 316 -0.6% -2 289 2.5% 72012-2013 337 6.6% 21 310 7.3% 212013-2014 312 -7.4% -25 327 5.5% 172014-2015 306 -1.9% -6 341 4.3% 142015-2016 314 2.6% 8 326 -4.4% -152016-2017 306 -2.5% -8 329 0.9% 32017-2018 292 -4.6% -14 332 0.9% 32018-2019 292 0.0% 0 333 0.3% 12019-2020 295 1.0% 3 332 -0.3% -12020-2021 289 -2.0% -6 314 -5.4% -18% Change
2009-2010 to 2020-2021
-12.2% 19.8%
% Change 2009-2010 to
2015-2016-4.6% 24.4%
- 34 -
TABLE 17 PERCENT OF CHANGE BY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
2009-2010 TO 2020-2021
Year WARD SCHOOL WILLIAMS SCHOOLTotal % Change # Change Total % Change # Change
2009-2010 260 0.0% 0 277 0.4% 12010-2011 269 3.5% 9 298 7.6% 212011-2012 278 3.3% 9 302 1.3% 42012-2013 301 8.3% 23 304 0.7% 22013-2014 289 -4.0% -12 304 0.0% 02014-2015 304 5.2% 15 292 -3.9% -122015-2016 304 0.0% 0 290 -0.7% -22016-2017 308 1.3% 4 299 3.1% 92017-2018 307 -0.3% -1 304 1.7% 52018-2019 296 -3.6% -11 290 -4.6% -142019-2020 286 -3.4% -10 296 2.1% 62020-2021 283 -1.0% -3 307 3.7% 11% Change
2009-2010 to 2020-2021
8.8% 10.8%
% Change 2009-2010 to
2015-201616.9% 4.7%
Year ZERVAS SCHOOL TOTAL ELEMENTARY K-5Total % Change # Change Total % Change # Change
2009-2010 326 -0.6% -2 5,527 0.5% 292010-2011 349 7.1% 23 5,646 2.2% 1192011-2012 321 -8.0% -28 5,687 0.7% 412012-2013 325 1.2% 4 5,790 1.8% 1032013-2014 317 -2.5% -8 5,799 0.2% 92014-2015 309 -2.5% -8 5,833 0.6% 342015-2016 308 -0.3% -1 5,785 -0.8% -482016-2017 332 7.8% 24 5,787 0.0% 22017-2018 370 11.4% 38 5,844 1.0% 572018-2019 393 6.2% 23 5,859 0.3% 152019-2020 418 6.4% 25 5,833 -0.4% -262020-2021 443 6.0% 25 5,790 -0.7% -43% Change
2009-2010 to 2020-2021
35.9% 4.8%
% Change 2009-2010 to
2015-2016-5.5% 4.7%
- 35 -
Year BIGELOW MIDDLE SCHOOL BROWN MIDDLE SCHOOL DAY MIDDLE SCHOOLTotal % Change # Change Total % Change # Change Total % Change # Change
2009-2010 527 4.4% 22 684 0.4% -18 773 3.5% -152010-2011 523 -0.8% -4 666 -2.6% -18 758 -1.9% -152011-2012 533 1.9% 10 677 1.7% 11 845 11.5% 872012-2013 531 -0.4% -2 698 3.1% 21 874 3.4% 292013-2014 525 -1.1% -6 743 6.4% 45 947 8.4% 732014-2015 504 -4.0% -21 738 -0.7% -5 932 -1.6% -152015-2016 509 1.0% 5 780 5.7% 42 927 -0.5% -52016-2017 513 0.8% 4 790 1.3% 10 923 -0.4% -42017-2018 523 1.9% 10 758 -4.1% -32 993 7.6% 702018-2019 524 0.2% 1 740 -2.4% -18 1013 2.0% 202019-2020 547 4.4% 23 745 0.7% 5 1024 1.1% 112020-2021 580 6.0% 33 798 7.1% 53 1018 -0.6% -6% Change
2009-2010 to 2020-2021
10.1% 16.7% 31.7%
% Change 2009-2010 to
2015-2016-3.4% 14.0% 19.9%
Year OAK HILL MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTAL MIDDLE SCHOOLTotal % Change # Change Total % Change # Change
2009-2010 572 4.6% 25 2556 0.6% 142010-2011 603 5.4% 31 2550 -0.2% -62011-2012 612 1.5% 9 2667 4.6% 1172012-2013 616 0.7% 4 2719 1.9% 522013-2014 634 2.9% 18 2849 4.8% 1302014-2015 632 -0.3% -2 2806 -1.5% -432015-2016 602 -4.7% -30 2818 0.4% 122016-2017 612 1.7% 10 2838 0.7% 202017-2018 583 -4.7% -29 2857 0.7% 192018-2019 578 -0.9% -5 2855 -0.1% -22019-2020 585 1.2% 7 2901 1.6% 462020-2021 603 3.1% 18 2999 3.4% 98% Change 2009-2010
to 2020-2021
5.4% 17.3%
% Change 2009-2010
to 2015-2016
5.2% 10.3%
TABLE 18PERCENT OF CHANGE BY MIDDLE SCHOOL
2009-2010 TO 2020-2021
- 36 -
Year NORTH HIGH SCHOOL SOUTH HIGH SCHOOL TOTAL HIGH SCHOOLTotal % Change # Change Total % Change # Change Total % Change # Change
2009-2010 1,802 -1.5% -27 1,722 -2.3% -41 3,524 -1.8% -682010-2011 1,871 3.8% 69 1,708 -0.8% -14 3,579 1.6% 552011-2012 1,877 0.3% 6 1,691 -1.0% -17 3,568 -0.3% -112012-2013 1,940 3.4% 63 1,721 1.8% 30 3,661 2.6% 932013-2014 2,015 3.9% 75 1,778 3.3% 57 3,793 3.6% 1322014-2015 2,060 2.2% 45 1,804 1.5% 26 3,864 1.9% 712015-2016 2,107 2.3% 47 1,798 -0.3% -6 3,905 1.1% 412016-2017 2,154 2.2% 47 1,801 0.2% 3 3,955 1.3% 502017-2018 2,165 0.5% 11 1,822 1.2% 21 3,987 0.8% 322018-2019 2,166 0.0% 1 1,875 2.9% 53 4,041 1.4% 542019-2020 2,197 1.4% 31 1,919 2.3% 44 4,116 1.9% 752020-2021 2,233 1.6% 36 1,879 -2.1% -40 4,112 -0.1% -4% Change
2009-2010 to 2020-2021
23.9% 9.1% 16.7%
% Change 2009-2010 to 2015-2016
16.9% 4.4% 10.8%
TABLE 19PERCENT OF CHANGE BY HIGH SCHOOL
2009-2010 TO 2020-2021
- 37 -
IV. INDIVIDUAL SCHOOL REPORTS
IV. INDIVIDUAL SCHOOL REPORTS The individual school reports contain the following information: Elementary Schools
1. Enrollments by grade for last year (2014-15) and this year (2015-16) and the change in enrollment at each grade level. Enrollment projections by grade for the next five years (2016-17 to 2020-21) are also reported based on a 5-year cohort survival ratio average for grades 1 through 5 and an adjusted straight 5-year average for kindergarten.
2. Ten years of kindergarten and total school enrollments.
3. Distribution of the ages of incoming kindergarten students since 2008.
4. The number of children younger than age five living in each district.
5. A line graph depicting enrollment history over time (40 years) and projections (5 years).
Middle Schools
1. Enrollments by grade for last year (2014-15) and this year (2015-16) and the change in enrollment at each grade level. Enrollment projections by grade for the next five years (2016-17 to 2020-21) are also presented based on a 5-year cohort survival ratio average.
2. Ten years of enrollment change.
3. Number of 5th grade students from feeder elementary schools who will enter the 6th grade next year (2016-17).
4. A line graph depicting enrollment history over time (40 years) and projections (5 years).
High Schools
1. Enrollments by grade for last year (2014-15) and this year (2015-16) and the change in enrollment at each grade level. Enrollment projections by grade for the next five years (2016-17 to 2020-21) are also presented based on a 5-year cohort survival ratio average.
2. Ten years enrollment change.
3. Number of 8th grade students from feeder middle schools who will enter the 9th grade next year (2016-17).
4. A line graph depicting enrollment history over time (40 years) and projections (5 years).
- 38 -
Angier
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE
OctoberEnrollment Difference Projections Using 5-year Average Ratios***
2014 2015 N % 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Grade FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
K 65 62 -3 -4.6% 67 68 68 68 68
1 67 74 7 10.4% 69 74 76 75 75
2 65 70 5 7.7% 79 73 79 80 80
3 65 70 5 7.7% 73 82 76 82 84
4 75 59 -16 -21.3% 70 73 83 77 83
5 65 74 9 13.8% 58 69 72 81 75
Spec. Ed.** 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 402 409* 7 1.7% 416 439 454 463 465*Includes 10 METCO students.**Students who receive special education services outside of the classroom for a significant amount of time (students in K-8 are reported with their grades).***Projections include new METCO students for each year.
TEN YEARS OF TOTAL SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS
Enrollment Change from % Change fromYear K Total Previous Year Previous Year2006 60 3792007 67 401 22 5.8%2008 47 392 -9 -2.2%2009 48 389 -3 -0.8%2010 57 375 -14 -3.6%2011 62 395 20 5.3%2012 69 408 13 3.3%2013 67 417 9 2.2%2014 65 402 -15 -3.6%2015 62 409 7 1.7%
Peak enrollment year: 2013, 417 students
- 39 -
Angier
DISTRIBUTION OF THE AGES OF INCOMING KINDERGARTEN STUDENTS
Age 5 Age 6Year # % # % Total2008 43 91.5% 4 8.5% 472009 43 89.6% 5 10.4% 482010 56 98.2% 1 1.8% 572011 57 91.9% 5 8.1% 622012 67 97.1% 2 2.9% 692013 63 94.0% 4 6.0% 672014 61 93.8% 4 6.2% 652015 58 93.5% 4 6.5% 62
NUMBER OF CHILDREN YOUNGER THAN AGE FIVE
Age Number Year Entering K1 26 2019-20202 31 2018-20193 33 2017-20184 50 2016-2017
(as of January 1, 2015 City Census)
100
200
300
400
500
600
Enrollment History and Projections
- 40 -
Bowen
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE
OctoberEnrollment Difference Projections Using 5-year Average Ratios***
2014 2015 N % 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Grade FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
K 65 59 -6 -9.2% 62 65 64 59 61
1 100 67 -33 -33.0% 62 65 68 67 64
2 83 99 16 19.3% 68 63 66 70 68
3 73 71 -2 -2.7% 100 69 64 67 70
4 80 71 -9 -11.3% 70 98 67 63 66
5 74 82 8 10.8% 74 73 102 70 65
Spec. Ed.** 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 475 449* -26 -5.5% 436 433 431 396 394*Includes 18 METCO students.**Students who receive special education services outside of the classroom for a significant amount of time (students in K-8 are reported with their grades).***Projections include new METCO students for each year.
TEN YEARS OF TOTAL SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS
Enrollment Change from % Change fromYear K Total Previous Year Previous Year2006 83 4132007 77 428 15 3.6%2008 59 435 7 1.6%2009 69 454 19 4.4%2010 70 449 -5 -1.1%2011 67 448 -1 -0.2%2012 79 477 29 6.5%2013 95 502 25 5.2%2014 65 475 -27 -5.4%2015 59 449 -26 -5.5%
Peak enrollment year: 2013, 502 students
- 41 -
Bowen
DISTRIBUTION OF THE AGES OF INCOMING KINDERGARTEN STUDENTS
Age 5 Age 6Year # % # % Total2008 52 88.1% 7 11.9% 592009 61 88.4% 8 11.6% 692010 68 97.1% 2 2.9% 702011 63 94.0% 4 6.0% 672012 74 93.7% 5 6.3% 792013 93 97.9% 2 2.1% 952014 61 93.8% 4 6.2% 652015 55 93.2% 4 6.8% 59
*Age 6 for 2008-09 school year includes one 7-year old.
NUMBER OF CHILDREN YOUNGER THAN AGE FIVE
Age Number Year Entering K1 27 2019-20202 31 2018-20193 35 2017-20184 32 2016-2017
(as of January 1, 2015 City Census)
100
200
300
400
500
600
Enrollment History and Projections
- 42 -
Burr
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE
OctoberEnrollment Difference Projections Using 5-year Average Ratios***
2014 2015 N % 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Grade FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
K 70 63 -7 -10.0% 60 63 63 62 61
1 82 70 -12 -14.6% 64 62 64 64 64
2 65 80 15 23.1% 70 64 62 64 64
3 68 62 -6 -8.8% 80 70 64 62 64
4 68 68 0 0.0% 62 81 71 64 63
5 71 69 -2 -2.8% 68 62 81 71 64
Spec. Ed.** 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 424 412* -12 -2.8% 404 402 405 387 380*Includes 5 METCO students.**Students who receive special education services outside of the classroom for a significant amount of time (students in K-8 are reported with their grades).***Projections include new METCO students for each year.
TEN YEARS OF TOTAL SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS
Enrollment Change from % Change fromYear K Total Previous Year Previous Year2006 60 3332007 54 331 -2 -0.6%2008 68 369 38 11.5%2009 69 379 10 2.7%2010 65 391 12 3.2%2011 68 409 18 4.6%2012 65 415 6 1.5%2013 80 424 9 2.2%2014 70 424 0 0.0%2015 63 412 -12 -2.8%
Peak enrollment year: 2013, 424 students
- 43 -
Burr
DISTRIBUTION OF THE AGES OF INCOMING KINDERGARTEN STUDENTS
Age 5 Age 6Year # % # % Total2008 60 88.2% 8 11.8% 682009 60 87.0% 9 13.0% 692010 60 92.3% 5 7.7% 652011 64 94.1% 4 5.9% 682012 62 95.4% 3 4.6% 652013 78 97.5% 2 2.5% 802014 67 95.7% 3 4.3% 702015 62 98.4% 1 1.6% 63
*Age 6 for the 2007-08 and 2008-09 school years include one 7-year old.
NUMBER OF CHILDREN YOUNGER THAN AGE FIVE
Age Number Year Entering K1 24 2019-20202 26 2018-20193 27 2017-20184 35 2016-2017
(as of January 1, 2015 City Census)
100
200
300
400
500
600
Enrollment History and Projections
- 44 -
Cabot
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE
OctoberEnrollment Difference Projections Using 5-year Average Ratios***
2014 2015 N % 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Grade FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
K 61 52 -9 -14.8% 59 59 56 58 58
1 57 69 12 21.1% 56 63 62 61 63
2 79 62 -17 -21.5% 69 56 64 63 62
3 70 76 6 8.6% 63 70 57 65 64
4 76 66 -10 -13.2% 75 62 70 57 64
5 75 78 3 4.0% 66 75 62 70 56
Spec. Ed.** 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 418 403* -15 -3.6% 388 385 371 374 367*Includes 15 METCO students.**Students who receive special education services outside of the classroom for a significant amount of time (students in K-8 are reported with their grades).***Projections include new METCO students for each year.
TEN YEARS OF TOTAL SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS
Enrollment Change from % Change fromYear K Total Previous Year Previous Year2006 71 4202007 60 424 4 1.0%2008 63 425 1 0.2%2009 69 449 24 5.6%2010 72 452 3 0.7%2011 63 440 -12 -2.7%2012 73 420 -20 -4.5%2013 54 419 -1 -0.2%2014 61 418 -1 -0.2%2015 52 403 -15 -3.6%
Peak enrollment year: 2010, 452 students
- 45 -
Cabot
DISTRIBUTION OF THE AGES OF INCOMING KINDERGARTEN STUDENTS
Age 5 Age 6Year # % # % Total2008 56 88.9% 7 11.1% 632009 64 92.8% 5 7.2% 692010 71 98.6% 1 1.4% 722011 60 95.2% 3 4.8% 632012 68 93.2% 5 6.8% 732013 51 94.4% 3 5.6% 542014 58 95.1% 3 4.9% 612015 51 98.1% 1 1.9% 52
NUMBER OF CHILDREN YOUNGER THAN AGE FIVE
Age Number Year Entering K1 34 2019-20202 38 2018-20193 37 2017-20184 29 2016-2017
(as of January 1, 2015 City Census)
100
200
300
400
500
600
Enrollment History and Projections
- 46 -
Countryside
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE
OctoberEnrollment Difference Projections Using 5-year Average Ratios***
2014 2015 N % 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Grade FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
K 72 70 -2 -2.8% 63 66 65 66 66
1 67 75 8 11.9% 73 66 68 68 70
2 67 63 -4 -6.0% 74 72 65 67 66
3 76 76 0 0.0% 65 76 74 67 68
4 88 76 -12 -13.6% 78 66 77 76 68
5 96 90 -6 -6.3% 78 80 68 79 77
Spec. Ed.** 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 466 450* -16 -3.4% 431 426 417 423 415*Includes 5 METCO students.**Students who receive special education services outside of the classroom for a significant amount of time (students in K-8 are reported with their grades).***Projections include new METCO students for each year.
TEN YEARS OF TOTAL SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS
Enrollment Change from % Change fromYear K Total Previous Year Previous Year2006 70 4372007 82 447 10 2.3%2008 85 479 32 7.2%2009 85 472 -7 -1.5%2010 86 499 27 5.7%2011 62 490 -9 -1.8%2012 69 479 -11 -2.2%2013 64 457 -22 -4.6%2014 72 466 9 2.0%2015 70 450 -16 -3.4%
Peak enrollment year: 2010, 499 students
- 47 -
Countryside
DISTRIBUTION OF THE AGES OF INCOMING KINDERGARTEN STUDENTS
Age 5 Age 6Year # % # % Total2008 71 83.5% 14 16.5% 852009 74 87.1% 11 12.9% 852010 83 96.5% 3 3.5% 862011 59 95.2% 3 4.8% 622012 66 95.7% 3 4.3% 692013 64 100.0% 0 0.0% 642014 72 100.0% 0 0.0% 722015 69 98.6% 1 1.4% 70
NUMBER OF CHILDREN YOUNGER THAN AGE FIVE
Age Number Year Entering K1 21 2019-20202 27 2018-20193 29 2017-20184 39 2016-2017
(as of January 1, 2015 City Census)
100
200
300
400
500
600
Enrollment History and Projections
- 48 -
Franklin
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE
OctoberEnrollment Difference Projections Using 5-year Average Ratios***
2014 2015 N % 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Grade FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
K 76 67 -9 -11.8% 69 71 73 72 71
1 79 87 8 10.1% 70 73 73 75 75
2 66 73 7 10.6% 87 70 73 73 75
3 71 71 0 0.0% 74 88 71 74 74
4 53 74 21 39.6% 70 73 87 70 73
5 68 52 -16 -23.5% 78 74 76 91 74
Spec. Ed.** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 413 424* 11 2.7% 448 449 453 455 442*Includes 10 METCO students.**Students who receive special education services outside of the classroom for a significant amount of time (students in K-8 are reported with their grades).***Projections include new METCO students for each year.
TEN YEARS OF TOTAL SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS
Enrollment Change from % Change fromYear K Total Previous Year Previous Year2006 69 4142007 64 401 -13 -3.1%2008 56 396 -5 -1.2%2009 67 402 6 1.5%2010 42 397 -5 -1.2%2011 72 401 4 1.0%2012 63 396 -5 -1.2%2013 78 389 -7 -1.8%2014 76 413 24 6.2%2015 67 424 11 2.7%
Peak enrollment year: 2015, 424 students
- 49 -
Franklin
DISTRIBUTION OF THE AGES OF INCOMING KINDERGARTEN STUDENTS
Age 5 Age 6Year # % # % Total2008 46 82.1% 10 17.9% 562009 63 94.0% 4 6.0% 672010 35 83.3% 7 16.7% 422011 71 98.6% 1 1.4% 722012 61 96.8% 2 3.2% 632013 77 98.7% 1 1.3% 782014 70 92.1% 6 7.9% 762015 64 95.5% 3 4.5% 67
NUMBER OF CHILDREN YOUNGER THAN AGE FIVE
Age Number Year Entering K1 39 2019-20202 40 2018-20193 49 2017-20184 56 2016-2017
(as of January 1, 2015 City Census)
100
200
300
400
500
600
Enrollment History and Projections
- 50 -
Horace Mann
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE
OctoberEnrollment Difference Projections Using 5-year Average Ratios***
2014 2015 N % 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Grade FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
K 65 57 -8 -12.3% 64 63 63 64 64
1 69 65 -4 -5.8% 59 66 65 67 67
2 75 68 -7 -9.3% 64 58 65 66 65
3 83 69 -14 -16.9% 69 65 59 66 67
4 73 84 11 15.1% 73 73 69 62 70
5 69 69 0 0.0% 83 72 72 68 61
Spec. Ed.** 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 434 412* -22 -5.1% 412 397 393 393 394*Includes 10 METCO students.**Students who receive special education services outside of the classroom for a significant amount of time (students in K-8 are reported with their grades).***Projections include new METCO students for each year.
TEN YEARS OF TOTAL SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS
Enrollment Change from % Change fromYear K Total Previous Year Previous Year2006 58 3502007 49 348 -2 -0.6%2008 67 370 22 6.3%2009 57 371 1 0.3%2010 67 373 2 0.5%2011 80 386 13 3.5%2012 65 394 8 2.1%2013 67 427 33 8.4%2014 65 434 7 1.6%2015 57 412 -22 -5.1%
Peak enrollment year: 2014, 434 students
- 51 -
Horace Mann
DISTRIBUTION OF THE AGES OF INCOMING KINDERGARTEN STUDENTS
Age 5 Age 6Year # % # % Total2008 57 86.4% 9 13.6% 662009 53 93.0% 4 7.0% 572010 65 97.0% 2 3.0% 672011 78 97.5% 2 2.5% 802012 59 90.8% 6 9.2% 652013 66 98.5% 1 1.5% 672014 62 95.4% 3 4.6% 652015 53 93.0% 4 7.0% 57
NUMBER OF CHILDREN YOUNGER THAN AGE FIVE
Age Number Year Entering K1 15 2019-20202 24 2018-20193 21 2017-20184 46 2016-2017
(as of January 1, 2015 City Census)
100
200
300
400
500
600
Enrollment History and Projections
- 52 -
Lincoln-Eliot
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE
OctoberEnrollment Difference Projections Using 5-year Average Ratios***
2014 2015 N % 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Grade FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
K 57 58 1 1.8% 54 56 57 56 57
1 64 56 -8 -12.5% 59 54 57 57 57
2 53 63 10 18.9% 58 61 57 59 59
3 53 51 -2 -3.8% 63 58 61 56 58
4 57 52 -5 -8.8% 53 65 60 63 58
5 53 60 7 13.2% 53 54 67 61 65
Spec. Ed.** 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 337 340* 3 0.9% 340 348 359 352 354*Includes 17 METCO students.**Students who receive special education services outside of the classroom for a significant amount of time (students in K-8 are reported with their grades).***Projections include new METCO students for each year.
TEN YEARS OF TOTAL SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS
Enrollment Change from % Change fromYear K Total Previous Year Previous Year2006 47 2812007 45 293 12 4.3%2008 43 284 -9 -3.1%2009 49 291 7 2.5%2010 58 293 2 0.7%2011 55 317 24 8.2%2012 48 322 5 1.6%2013 63 329 7 2.2%2014 57 337 8 2.4%2015 58 340 3 0.9%
Peak enrollment year: 2015, 340 students
- 53 -
Lincoln-Eliot
DISTRIBUTION OF THE AGES OF INCOMING KINDERGARTEN STUDENTS
Age 5 Age 6Year # % # % Total2008 40 93.0% 3 7.0% 432009 43 87.8% 6 12.2% 492010 55 94.8% 3 5.2% 582011 53 96.4% 2 3.6% 552012 48 100.0% 0 0.0% 482013 63 100.0% 0 0.0% 632014 57 100.0% 0 0.0% 572015 58 100.0% 0 0.0% 58
*Age 6 for the 2007-08 school year included one 7-year old.
NUMBER OF CHILDREN YOUNGER THAN AGE FIVE
Age Number Year Entering K1 29 2019-20202 30 2018-20193 40 2017-20184 33 2016-2017
(as of January 1, 2015 City Census)
100
200
300
400
500
600
Enrollment History and Projections
- 54 -
Mason-Rice
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE
OctoberEnrollment Difference Projections Using 5-year Average Ratios***
2014 2015 N % 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Grade FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
K 82 81 -1 -1.2% 66 71 71 70 71
1 95 96 1 1.1% 86 71 77 76 75
2 85 91 6 7.1% 96 87 72 78 77
3 63 86 23 36.5% 90 96 87 72 78
4 72 66 -6 -8.3% 85 90 97 87 72
5 81 72 -9 -11.1% 65 85 90 96 87
Spec. Ed.** 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 478 492* 14 2.9% 488 500 494 479 460*Includes 11 METCO students.**Students who receive special education services outside of the classroom for a significant amount of time (students in K-8 are reported with their grades).***Projections include new METCO students for each year.
TEN YEARS OF TOTAL SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS
Enrollment Change from % Change fromYear K Total Previous Year Previous Year2006 58 3722007 75 410 38 10.2%2008 67 422 12 2.9%2009 72 428 6 1.4%2010 64 442 14 3.3%2011 64 437 -5 -1.1%2012 79 438 1 0.2%2013 88 457 19 4.3%2014 82 478 21 4.6%2015 81 492 14 2.9%
Peak enrollment year: 2015, 492 students
- 55 -
Mason-Rice
DISTRIBUTION OF THE AGES OF INCOMING KINDERGARTEN STUDENTS
Age 5 Age 6Year # % # % Total2008 61 91.0% 6 9.0% 672009 61 84.7% 11 15.3% 722010 62 96.9% 2 3.1% 642011 61 95.3% 3 4.7% 642012 69 87.3% 10 12.7% 792013 78 88.6% 10 11.4% 882014 73 89.0% 9 11.0% 822015 74 91.4% 7 8.6% 81
NUMBER OF CHILDREN YOUNGER THAN AGE FIVE
Age Number Year Entering K1 19 2019-20202 24 2018-20193 31 2017-20184 48 2016-2017
(as of January 1, 2015 City Census)
100
200
300
400
500
600
Enrollment History and Projections
- 56 -
Memorial-Spaulding
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE
OctoberEnrollment Difference Projections Using 5-year Average Ratios***
2014 2015 N % 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Grade FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
K 79 77 -2 -2.5% 71 72 75 75 76
1 69 81 12 17.4% 83 76 79 80 81
2 72 74 2 2.8% 82 84 78 80 81
3 66 68 2 3.0% 73 80 83 76 78
4 77 69 -8 -10.4% 71 76 85 87 79
5 71 83 12 16.9% 70 72 78 86 88
Spec. Ed.** 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 434 452* 18 4.1% 450 460 478 484 483*Includes 13 METCO students.**Students who receive special education services outside of the classroom for a significant amount of time (students in K-8 are reported with their grades).***Projections include new METCO students for each year.
TEN YEARS OF TOTAL SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS
Enrollment Change from % Change fromYear K Total Previous Year Previous Year2006 74 4432007 58 449 6 1.4%2008 62 442 -7 -1.6%2009 62 438 -4 -0.9%2010 74 459 21 4.8%2011 66 458 -1 -0.2%2012 69 464 6 1.3%2013 67 429 -35 -7.5%2014 79 434 5 1.2%2015 77 452 18 4.1%
Peak enrollment year: 2012, 464 students
- 57 -
Memorial-Spaulding
DISTRIBUTION OF THE AGES OF INCOMING KINDERGARTEN STUDENTS
Age 5 Age 6Year # % # % Total2008 57 91.9% 5 8.1% 622009 58 93.5% 4 6.5% 622010 71 95.9% 3 4.1% 742011 62 93.9% 4 6.1% 662012 68 98.6% 1 1.4% 692013 65 97.0% 2 3.0% 672014 74 93.7% 5 6.3% 792015 74 96.1% 3 3.9% 77
NUMBER OF CHILDREN YOUNGER THAN AGE FIVE
Age Number Year Entering K1 13 2019-20202 23 2018-20193 33 2017-20184 34 2016-2017
(as of January 1, 2015 City Census)
100
200
300
400
500
600
Enrollment History and Projections
- 58 -
Peirce
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE
OctoberEnrollment Difference Projections Using 5-year Average Ratios***
2014 2015 N % 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Grade FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
K 48 41 -7 -14.6% 46 46 45 46 44
1 47 56 9 19.1% 44 50 50 48 50
2 46 44 -2 -4.3% 55 44 49 49 48
3 66 50 -16 -24.2% 46 58 46 51 52
4 56 68 12 21.4% 50 46 58 46 51
5 43 55 12 27.9% 65 48 44 55 44
Spec. Ed.** 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 306 314* 8 2.6% 306 292 292 295 289*Includes 13 METCO students.**Students who receive special education services outside of the classroom for a significant amount of time (students in K-8 are reported with their grades).***Projections include new METCO students for each year.
TEN YEARS OF TOTAL SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS
Enrollment Change from % Change fromYear K Total Previous Year Previous Year2006 49 3242007 53 329 5 1.5%2008 39 338 9 2.7%2009 39 329 -9 -2.7%2010 45 318 -11 -3.3%2011 55 316 -2 -0.6%2012 51 337 21 6.6%2013 46 312 -25 -7.4%2014 48 306 -6 -1.9%2015 41 314 8 2.6%
Peak enrollment year: 2008, 338 students
- 59 -
Peirce
DISTRIBUTION OF THE AGES OF INCOMING KINDERGARTEN STUDENTS
Age 5 Age 6Year # % # % Total2008 34 87.2% 5 12.8% 392009 32 82.1% 7 17.9% 392010 42 93.3% 3 6.7% 452011 45 81.8% 10 18.2% 552012 48 94.1% 3 5.9% 512013 42 91.3% 4 8.7% 462014 44 91.7% 4 8.3% 482015 41 100.0% 0 0.0% 41
* Age 6 for school year 2009-10 included one 7-year old.
NUMBER OF CHILDREN YOUNGER THAN AGE FIVE
Age Number Year Entering K1 18 2019-20202 16 2018-20193 23 2017-20184 32 2016-2017
(as of January 1, 2015 City Census)
100
200
300
400
500
600
Enrollment History and Projections
- 60 -
Underwood
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE
OctoberEnrollment Difference Projections Using 5-year Average Ratios***
2014 2015 N % 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Grade FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
K 62 41 -21 -33.9% 48 48 49 48 48
1 51 66 15 29.4% 44 50 50 50 50
2 55 51 -4 -7.3% 68 45 52 51 52
3 51 55 4 7.8% 55 73 48 55 55
4 58 55 -3 -5.2% 58 57 76 50 58
5 64 58 -6 -9.4% 56 59 58 78 51
Spec. Ed.** 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 341 326* -15 -4.4% 329 332 333 332 314*Includes 21 METCO students.**Students who receive special education services outside of the classroom for a significant amount of time (students in K-8 are reported with their grades).***Projections include new METCO students for each year.
TEN YEARS OF TOTAL SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS
Enrollment Change from % Change fromYear K Total Previous Year Previous Year2006 49 2882007 44 295 7 2.4%2008 43 282 -13 -4.4%2009 46 262 -20 -7.1%2010 49 282 20 7.6%2011 49 289 7 2.5%2012 47 310 21 7.3%2013 48 327 17 5.5%2014 62 341 14 4.3%2015 41 326 -15 -4.4%
Peak enrollment year: 2014, 341 students
- 61 -
Underwood
DISTRIBUTION OF THE AGES OF INCOMING KINDERGARTEN STUDENTS*
Age 5 Age 6Year # % # % Total2008 40 93.0% 3 7.0% 432009 39 84.8% 7 15.2% 462010 43 87.8% 6 12.2% 492011 46 93.9% 3 6.1% 492012 42 89.4% 5 10.6% 472013 47 97.9% 1 2.1% 482014 58 93.5% 4 6.5% 622015 40 97.6% 1 2.4% 41
NUMBER OF CHILDREN YOUNGER THAN AGE FIVE
Age Number Year Entering K1 14 2019-20202 17 2018-20193 24 2017-20184 26 2016-2017
(as of January 1, 2015 City Census)
100
200
300
400
500
600
Enrollment History and Projections
- 62 -
Ward
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE
OctoberEnrollment Difference Projections Using 5-year Average Ratios***
2014 2015 N % 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Grade FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
K 46 43 -3 -6.5% 41 42 40 42 41
1 54 49 -5 -9.3% 48 46 46 44 47
2 53 57 4 7.5% 50 50 47 47 45
3 55 57 2 3.6% 59 52 51 49 49
4 47 53 6 12.8% 58 60 53 52 50
5 49 45 -4 -8.2% 52 57 59 52 51
Spec. Ed.** 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 304 304* 0 0.0% 308 307 296 286 283*Includes 12 METCO students.**Students who receive special education services outside of the classroom for a significant amount of time (students in K-8 are reported with their grades).***Projections include new METCO students for each year.
TEN YEARS OF TOTAL SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS
Enrollment Change from % Change fromYear K Total Previous Year Previous Year2006 31 2372007 47 247 10 4.2%2008 42 260 13 5.3%2009 34 260 0 0.0%2010 42 269 9 3.5%2011 46 278 9 3.3%2012 47 301 23 8.3%2013 43 289 -12 -4.0%2014 46 304 15 5.2%2015 43 304 0 0.0%
Peak enrollment year: 2014, 304 students
- 63 -
Ward
DISTRIBUTION OF THE AGES OF INCOMING KINDERGARTEN STUDENTS
Age 5 Age 6Year # % # % Total2008 35 83.3% 7 16.7% 422009 26 76.5% 8 23.5% 342010 42 100.0% 0 0.0% 422011 45 97.8% 1 2.2% 462012 46 97.9% 1 2.1% 472013 40 93.0% 3 7.0% 432014 43 93.5% 3 6.5% 462015 41 95.3% 2 4.7% 43
NUMBER OF CHILDREN YOUNGER THAN AGE FIVE
Age Number Year Entering K1 13 2019-20202 23 2018-20193 26 2017-20184 29 2016-2017
(as of January 1, 2015 City Census)
100
200
300
400
500
600
Enrollment History and Projections
- 64 -
Williams
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE
OctoberEnrollment Difference Projections Using 5-year Average Ratios***
2014 2015 N % 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Grade FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
K 37 62 25 67.6% 45 47 46 46 49
1 44 41 -3 -6.8% 64 46 48 47 49
2 60 43 -17 -28.3% 42 65 47 49 48
3 43 61 18 41.9% 43 42 65 47 49
4 41 45 4 9.8% 62 44 42 66 48
5 67 38 -29 -43.3% 43 60 42 41 64
Spec. Ed.** 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 292 290* -2 -0.7% 299 304 290 296 307*Includes 13 METCO students.**Students who receive special education services outside of the classroom for a significant amount of time (students in K-8 are reported with their grades).***Projections include new METCO students for each year.
TEN YEARS OF TOTAL SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS
Enrollment Change from % Change fromYear K Total Previous Year Previous Year2006 52 2952007 41 281 -14 -4.7%2008 43 276 -5 -1.8%2009 51 277 1 0.4%2010 43 298 21 7.6%2011 46 302 4 1.3%2012 50 304 2 0.7%2013 45 304 0 0.0%2014 37 292 -12 -3.9%2015 62 290 -2 -0.7%
Peak enrollment year: 2012, 304 students
- 65 -
Williams
DISTRIBUTION OF THE AGES OF INCOMING KINDERGARTEN STUDENTS
Age 5 Age 6Year # % # % Total2008 37 86.0% 6 14.0% 432009 46 90.2% 5 9.8% 512010 41 95.3% 2 4.7% 432011 46 100.0% 0 0.0% 462012 49 98.0% 1 2.0% 502013 40 88.9% 5 11.1% 452014 34 91.9% 3 8.1% 372015 58 93.5% 4 6.5% 62
NUMBER OF CHILDREN YOUNGER THAN AGE FIVE
Age Number Year Entering K1 15 2019-20202 28 2018-20193 21 2017-20184 24 2016-2017
(as of January 1, 2015 City Census)
100
200
300
400
500
600
Enrollment History and Projections
- 66 -
Zervas
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE
OctoberEnrollment Difference Projections Using 5-year Average Ratios***
2014 2015 N % 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Grade FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
K 53 44 -9 -17.0% 80 82 80 79 80
1 54 53 -1 -1.9% 46 81 82 80 80
2 55 54 -1 -1.8% 54 46 80 81 79
3 43 54 11 25.6% 55 54 46 81 82
4 59 43 -16 -27.1% 53 53 51 44 77
5 45 60 15 33.3% 44 54 54 53 45
Spec. Ed.** 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 309 308* -1 -0.3% 332 370 393 418 443*Includes 17 METCO students.**Students who receive special education services outside of the classroom for a significant amount of time (students in K-8 are reported with their grades).***Projections include new METCO students for each year.
TEN YEARS OF TOTAL SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS
Enrollment Change from % Change fromYear K Total Previous Year Previous Year2006 56 3322007 52 324 -8 -2.4%2008 46 328 4 1.2%2009 45 326 -2 -0.6%2010 62 349 23 7.1%2011 40 321 -28 -8.0%2012 60 325 4 1.2%2013 53 317 -8 -2.5%2014 53 309 -8 -2.5%2015 44 308 -1 -0.3%
Peak enrollment year: 2010, 349 students
- 67 -
Zervas
DISTRIBUTION OF THE AGES OF INCOMING KINDERGARTEN STUDENTS
Age 5 Age 6Year # % # % Total2008 43 93.5% 3 6.5% 462009 41 91.1% 4 8.9% 452010 58 93.5% 4 6.5% 622011 39 97.5% 1 2.5% 402012 52 86.7% 8 13.3% 602013 52 98.1% 1 1.9% 532014 51 96.2% 2 3.8% 532015 43 97.7% 1 2.3% 44
NUMBER OF CHILDREN YOUNGER THAN AGE FIVE
Age Number Year Entering K1 24 2019-20202 26 2018-20193 28 2017-20184 54 2016-2017
(as of January 1, 2015 City Census)
100
200
300
400
500
600
Enrollment History and Projections
- 68 -
Bigelow Middle School
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE
OctoberEnrollment Difference Projections Using 5-year Average Ratios
2014 2015 N % 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Grade FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
6 157 179 22 14.0% 171 169 180 194 2027 168 161 -7 -4.2% 182 173 172 182 1978 179 169 -10 -5.6% 160 181 172 171 181
Total 504 509 5 1.0% 513 523 524 547 580Spec. Ed.** 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 504 509* 5 1.0% 513 523 524 547 580*Includes 29 METCO students.**Students who receive special education services outside of the classroom for a significant amount of time (students in K-8 are reported with their grades).
TEN YEARS OF TOTAL SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS
Year Total EnrollmentChange from Previous Year
Percent Change
2006 4952007 487 -8 -1.6%2008 505 18 3.7%2009 527 22 4.4%2010 523 -4 -0.8%2011 533 10 1.9%2012 531 -2 -0.4%2013 525 -6 -1.1%2014 504 -21 -4.0%2015 509 5 1.0%
Peak enrollment year: 2011, 533 students
- 69 -
Bigelow Middle School
FIFTH GRADE STUDENTS FROM THE BIGELOW FEEDER SCHOOLS
Elementary 2015-2016School 5th Grade Enrollment
Cabot 0Lincoln-Eliot 60Underwood 58Ward 45Total 163
100200300400500600700800900
1,000
Enrollment History and Projections
- 70 -
Brown Middle School
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE
OctoberEnrollment Difference Projections Using 5-year Average Ratios
2014 2015 N % 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Grade FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
6 257 284 27 10.5% 248 221 267 249 2737 242 254 12 5.0% 284 248 221 270 2508 239 242 3 1.3% 258 289 252 226 275
Total 738 780 42 5.7% 790 758 740 745 798Spec. Ed.** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 738 780* 42 5.7% 790 758 740 745 798*Includes 28 METCO students.**Students who receive special education services outside of the classroom for a significant amount of time (students in K-8 are reported with their grades).
TEN YEARS OF TOTAL SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS
YearTotal
EnrollmentChange from Previous Year
Percent Change
2006 6652007 644 -21 -3.2%2008 681 37 5.7%2009 684 3 0.4%2010 666 -18 -2.6%2011 677 11 1.7%2012 698 21 3.1%2013 743 45 6.4%2014 738 -5 -0.7%2015 780 42 5.7%
Peak enrollment year: 2015, 780 students
- 71 -
Brown Middle School
Elementary 2015-2016School 5th Grade Enrollment
Angier 74Countryside 90Mason-Rice 72Williams 38Total 274
FIFTH GRADE STUDENTS FROM BROWN FEEDER SCHOOLS
100200300400500600700800900
1,000
Enrollment History and Projections
- 72 -
Day Middle School
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE
OctoberEnrollment Difference Projections Using 5-year Average Ratios
2014 2015 N % 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Grade FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
6 299 308 9 3.0% 322 358 327 332 3527 345 289 -56 -16.2% 311 324 361 330 3358 288 330 42 14.6% 290 311 325 362 331
Total 932 927 -5 -0.5% 923 993 1013 1024 1018Spec. Ed.** 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 932 927* -5 -0.5% 923 993 1013 1024 1018*Includes 32 METCO students.**Students who receive special education services outside of the classroom for a significant amount of time (students in K-8 are reported with their grades).
TEN YEARS OF TOTAL SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS
Year Total EnrollmentChange from Previous Year
Percent Change
2006 7472007 764 17 2.3%2008 747 -17 -2.2%2009 773 26 3.5%2010 758 -15 -1.9%2011 845 87 11.5%2012 874 29 3.4%2013 947 73 8.4%2014 932 -15 -1.6%2015 927 -5 -0.5%
Peak enrollment year: 2013, 947 students
- 73 -
Day Middle School
Elementary 2015-2016School 5th Grade Enrollment
Burr 69Cabot 78Franklin 52Horace Mann 69Peirce 55Total 323
FIFTH GRADE STUDENTS FROM THE DAY FEEDER SCHOOLS
100200300400500600700800900
1,0001,100
Enrollment History and Projections
- 74 -
Oak Hill Middle School
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE
OctoberEnrollment Difference Projections Using 5-year Average Ratios
2014 2015 N % 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Grade FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
6 209 192 -17 -8.1% 213 178 187 220 1967 208 208 0 0.0% 193 214 179 188 2218 215 202 -13 -6.0% 206 191 212 177 186
Total 632 602 -30 -4.7% 612 583 578 585 603Spec. Ed.** 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 632 602* -30 -4.7% 612 583 578 585 603*Includes 35 METCO students.**Students who receive special education services outside of the classroom for a significant amount of time (students in K-8 are reported with their grades).
TEN YEARS OF TOTAL SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS
YearTotal
EnrollmentChange from Previous Year
Percent Change
2006 5672007 558 -9 -1.6%2008 547 -11 -2.0%2009 572 25 4.6%2010 603 31 5.4%2011 612 9 1.5%2012 616 4 0.7%2013 634 18 2.9%2014 632 -2 -0.3%2015 602 -30 -4.7%
Peak enrollment year: 2013, 634 students
- 75 -
Oak Hill Middle School
FIFTH GRADE STUDENTS FROM THE OAK HILL FEEDER SCHOOLS
Elementary 2015-2016School 5th Grade Enrollment
Bowen 82Memorial-Spaulding 83Zervas 60Total 225
1997-98 marked the opening of Oak Hill Middle School.
100200300400500600700800900
1,000
Enrollment History and Projections
- 76 -
North High School
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE
OctoberEnrollment Difference Projections Using 5-year Average Ratios
2014 2015 N % 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Grade FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
9 535 507 -28 -5.2% 539 490 536 539 57410 489 537 48 9.8% 509 541 492 538 54211 508 484 -24 -4.7% 540 512 544 494 54112 450 497 47 10.4% 484 540 512 544 494
TOTAL 1,982 2,025 43 2% 2,072 2,083 2,084 2,115 2,151Post Grads 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Spec. Ed.* 78 82 4 5% 82 82 82 82 82
TOTAL 2,060 2,107** 47 2.3% 2,154 2,165 2,166 2,197 2,233**Includes 63 METCO students.*Students who receive special education services outside of the classroom for a significant amount of time.
TEN YEARS OF TOTAL SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS
Year Total EnrollmentChange from Previous Year
Percent Change
2006 1,9642007 1,911 -53 -2.7%2008 1,829 -82 -4.3%2009 1,802 -27 -1.5%2010 1,871 69 3.8%2011 1,877 6 0.3%2012 1,940 63 3.4%2013 2,015 75 3.9%2014 2,060 45 2.2%2015 2,107 47 2.3%
Peak enrollment year: 2015, 2107 students
- 77 -
North High School
Middle 2015-2016School 8th Grade Enrollment
Bigelow 169Brown (10%) 19Day 330Total 518
EIGHTH GRADE STUDENTS FROM THE NORTH FEEDER SCHOOLS
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Enrollment History and Projections
- 78 -
South High School
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE
OctoberEnrollment Difference Projections Using 5-year Average Ratios
2014 2015 N % 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Grade FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
9 442 438 -4 -0.9% 457 477 491 478 416
10 452 436 -16 -3.5% 436 454 474 491 477
11 456 453 -3 -0.7% 436 436 455 476 492
12 438 449 11 2.5% 450 433 433 452 472
TOTAL 1,788 1,776 -12 -1% 1,779 1,800 1,853 1,897 1,857Post Grads 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Spec. Ed.* 16 22 6 38% 22 22 22 22 22
TOTAL 1,804 1,798** -6 -0.3% 1,801 1,822 1,875 1,919 1,879**Includes 52 METCO students.*Students who receive special education services outside of the classroom for a significant amount of time.
TEN YEARS OF TOTAL SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS
Year Total EnrollmentChange from Previous Year
Percent Change
2006 1,7452007 1,784 39 2.2%2008 1,763 -21 -1.2%2009 1,722 -41 -2.3%2010 1,708 -14 -0.8%2011 1,691 -17 -1.0%2012 1,721 30 1.8%2013 1,778 57 3.3%2014 1,804 26 1.5%2015 1,798 -6 -0.3%
Peak enrollment year: 2014, 1804 students
- 79 -
South High School
Middle 2015-2016School 8th Grade Enrollment
Brown (90%) 223OakHill 202Total 425
EIGHTH GRADE STUDENTS FROM THE SOUTH FEEDER SCHOOLS
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Enrollment History and Projections
- 80 -
V. STUDENT EXITS AND ENTRANCES
STUDENT EXITS AND ENTRANCES
This section reports on student mobility in Newton Public Schools due to the movement of students not resulting from grade promotion. The student mobility statistics reported below illuminate the annual cycle of new student entrances and student exits in the district and how net migration can affect total enrollment. In addition, exit and entrance statistics further detail the extent and the type of student mobility changes that are experienced by schools during the course of a full academic year. Student mobility statistics reported in this section cover the 2014-15 school year to illustrate these changes over the full academic year. Note that other statistics in this report are reported as of a moment in time (October 1st). The table below shows three years of history in which last year shows negative net migration, while the two previous years show positive net migration. In 2014-15, new students comprised 6.4% of the total student population, not including new kindergarten enrollments in the fall. Student exits in the same year, not including graduates, made up 6.9% of the total population. In 2014-15, there were more student exits than student entrances as a percentage of the total student population. This negative net migration for 2014-15 is a shift from the prior two years, which had positive net migration, although the difference between entrances and exits narrowed from 2012-13 to 2013-14.
Student Exit Statistics In 2014-15, a total of 863 students, or 6.9% of the total population, left their schools during or after the close of the academic year, not including graduates. In 2014-15, at all grade levels, the greatest number of student exits resulted from students moving out of Newton. Most students who moved out of Newton in 2014-15 left during the elementary years, which was also true in the previous year. The rate of students moving out of the country was higher at the elementary level than other grade levels. Like last year, the middle school grade level had the highest percentage of students leaving to attend private school of all grade levels. The following tables provide the total number of exiting students by school and grade level, and by reason for exit. This year, the reasons for exit are displayed for exits in Summer 2015 to provide more information, as the majority of exits occur at or after the end of the school year. The number of exits during the 2014-15 school year, as well as all exits occurring in 2013-14 and 2014-15 (which includes the 2014-15 school year and Summer 2015 exits), are also included for comparison. Displaying the statistics in this way also allows for a comparison between the total exits in Summer 2015 to the total entrances as of October 1, 2015 for a current look at how student mobility is affecting growth at the beginning of the 2015-16 school year. There
Annual Student Mobility 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
Number of Student Exits 772 810 863Percentage of Enrollment 6.3% 6.5% 6.9%
Number of Student Entrances 911 846 805Percentage of Enrollment 7.5% 6.8% 6.4%
In Migration (Out Migration) 139 36 -58
- 81 -
were 578 total exits in Summer 2015 and (as detailed in the next section) there are 608
student entrances as of October 1, 2015.
TABLE 20
School
All
2013-14
Exits
Exits
during the
2014-15
School
Year
Moved out
of the
Country
Summer
2015
Moved Out
of Newton
Summer
2015
Left to
Attend
Non-Public
School
Summer
2015
Left Due to
Special
Education
Placement
Summer
2015
Left for
Other*
Reasons
Summer
2015
All
2014-15
Exits
All Grades 810 285 105 305 155 0 13 863
% Total
Enrollment 6.5% 2.3% 0.8% 2.4% 1.2% 0.0% 0.1% 6.9%
33.0% 12.2% 35.3% 18.0% 0.0% 1.5% 100.0%
*Other includes non-resident student transfers, home schooled students and deceased students.
SUMMARY ALL GRADES
SEPTEMBER 2014 - AUGUST 2015
% of All 2014-15 Exits
School
All
2013-14
Exits
Exits
during the
2014-15
School
Year
Moved out
of the
Country
Summer
2015
Moved Out
of Newton
Summer
2015
Left to
Attend
Non-Public
School
Summer
2015
Left Due to
Special
Education
Placement
Summer
2015
Left for
Other*
Reasons
Summer
2015
All
2014-15
Exits
Angier 38 8 7 11 7 33
Bowen 51 11 8 19 7 45
Burr 22 12 4 14 1 31
Cabot 30 4 1 18 2 25
Countryside 24 14 1 23 2 40
Franklin 35 10 1 10 2 23
Horace Mann 14 9 1 18 3 31
Lincoln-Eliot 20 16 13 2 31
Mason-Rice 30 1 9 6 5 21
Memorial-Spaulding 33 18 6 10 5 39
Peirce 38 9 1 9 15 34
Underwood 34 6 7 14 2 29
Ward 26 6 8 6 20
Williams 40 12 9 8 3 32
Zervas 28 4 3 8 11 26
Total 463 140 58 189 73 0 0 460
% of Elementary
Enrollment 8% 2.4% 1.0% 3.2% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 7.9%
30.4% 12.6% 41.1% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
*Other includes non-resident student transfers, home schooled students and deceased students.
EXITING ELEMENTARY SCHOOL STUDENTS
SEPTEMBER 2014- AUGUST 2015
% of All 2014-15 Exits
- 82 -
TABLE 21
TABLE 22
School
All
2013-14
Exits
Exits
during the
2014-15
School
Year
Moved out
of the
Country
Summer
2015
Moved Out
of Newton
Summer
2015
Left to
Attend
Non-Public
School
Summer
2015
Left Due to
Special
Education
Placement
Summer
2015
Left for
Other*
Reasons
Summer
2015
All
2014-15
Exits
Bigelow 26 11 5 17 6 2 41
Brown 54 9 5 10 20 44
Day 62 18 5 27 14 1 65
Oak Hill 53 18 5 18 19 60
Total 195 56 20 72 59 0 3 210
% Middle School
Enrollment 6.8% 2.0% 0.7% 2.6% 2.1% 0.0% 0.1% 7.5%
26.7% 9.5% 34.3% 28.1% 0.0% 1.4% 100.0%
*Other includes non-resident student transfers, home schooled students and deceased students.
SEPTEMBER 2014 - AUGUST 2015
EXITING MIDDLE SCHOOL STUDENTS
% of All 2014-15 Exits
School
All
2013-14
Exits
Exits
during the
2014-15
School
Year
Moved out
of the
Country
Summer
2015
Moved Out
of Newton
Summer
2015
Left to
Attend
Non-Public
School
Summer
2015
Left Due to
Special
Education
Placement
Summer
2015
Left for
Other*
Reasons
Summer
2015
All
2014-15
Exits
North High 78 56 4 18 7 6 91
South High 74 33 23 26 16 4 102
Total 152 89 27 44 23 0 10 193
% High School
Enrollment 4.0% 2.3% 0.7% 1.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.3% 5.0%
46.1% 14.0% 22.8% 11.9% 0.0% 5.2% 100.0%
*Other includes non-resident student transfers, home schooled students and deceased students.
EXITING HIGH SCHOOL STUDENTS
SEPTEMBER 2014 - AUGUST 2015
% of All 2014-15 Exits
- 83 -
A three year history of student exits is shown below. In 2014-15, the overall increase in student exits is driven by changes at the middle and high school grade levels. The high school grade level had the largest increase in the number of exits from last year.
TABLE 23
School 2012-13 2013-14# %
Change 2014-15# %
Change
Angier 21 38 17 33 -5Bowen 48 51 3 45 -6Burr 26 22 -4 31 9Cabot 20 30 10 25 -5Countryside 36 24 -12 40 16Franklin 21 35 14 23 -12Horace Mann 30 14 -16 31 17Lincoln-Eliot 32 20 -12 31 11Mason-Rice 33 30 -3 21 -9Memorial-Spaulding 57 33 -24 39 6Peirce 42 38 -4 34 -4Underwood 26 34 8 29 -5Ward 35 26 -9 20 -6Williams 25 40 15 32 -8Zervas 23 28 5 26 -2Total Elementary 475 463 -12 460 -3% Elementary Enrollment 8.2% 8.0% -2.5% 7.9% -0.001Bigelow 32 26 -6 41 15Brown 36 54 18 44 -10Day 39 62 23 65 3Oak Hill 34 53 19 60 7Total Middle School 141 195 54 210 15% Middle School Enrollment 5.2% 6.8% 38.3% 7.5% 7.7%North High 84 78 -6 91 13South High 72 74 2 102 28Total High School 156 152 -4 193 41% High School Enrollment 4.3% 4.0% -2.6% 5.0% 27.0%
Grand Total 772 810 38 863 53% Total Enrollment 6.3% 6.5% 4.9% 6.9% 6.5%
Three Year HistoryTOTAL STUDENT EXITS
- 84 -
Table 24 provides a history of student exits to private schools at the elementary, middle and high school levels since 2008-09. A break out is provided of the number and percentage of exits in transition years after the completion of elementary school and middle school. In 2014-15, 40% of students who left elementary school to attend private school did so in grade 5. Of those students who left their middle school to attend private school, 52% transferred in grade 8.
TABLE 24
08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15
All Elementary 98 81 113 79 98 67 85
% of Elementary Enrollment 1.8% 1.6% 2.0% 1.4% 1.7% 2.5% 1.5%
Grade 5* 51 35 50 34 49 36 34 % of Elementary exits 52.0% 43.2% 44.2% 43.0% 50.0% 53.7% 40.0%
All Middle School 64 59 69 36 50 45 67
% of Middle School Enrollment 2.6% 2.3% 1.2% 1.0% 1.8% 1.2% 2.4%
Grade 8* 33 21 41 20 26 20 35 % of Middle School exits 51.6% 35.6% 59.4% 55.6% 52.0% 44.4% 52.2%
All High School 23 27 29 19 29 39 45
% of High School Enrollment 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 1.2%
Grand Total 185 167 211 134 177 151 197
% of Total Enrollment 1.6% 1.4% 1.4% 0.9% 1.5% 1.2% 1.6%
*Statistics on Grade 5 and Grade 8 exits are provided to highlight grade level transition years.
LevelAcademic Year
HISTORY OF EXITS TO NON-PUBLIC SCHOOLS
- 85 -
Student Entrance Statistics
There were 805 students, or 6.4% of total enrollment, who entered Newton Public Schools in
2014-2015 who had not been students in the previous academic year, not including
kindergarten entrances in the fall. This is a decrease of 41 student enrollments from the prior
year, when there were 846 student entrances, or 6.8% of total enrollment.
The following tables provide the total number of entering students by school and grade level,
and by reason for enrollment and/or origin of the enrolled student. Students moving into
Newton are most commonly coming from another Massachusetts community or are
transferring in from a private school.
This year, entrances by reason for enrollment are displayed as of October 1, 2014 to provide
more detailed information about entrances, as the majority of student entrances occur
between the end of school and October 1st. Total entrances as of 2013-14, 2014-15, and
October 1, 2015 are included for comparison. Overall, the number of student entrances as of
October 1, 2015 is 608 students, which is comparable to the prior year when there were 606
student entrances as of October 1, 2014.
To identify the students who both entered and exited during the 2014-15 school year, the lists
of students who entered and students who exited were matched by student identification
number. There were 159 students who entered the Newton Public Schools and left the
Newton Public Schools in 2014-15, which is 19.8% of the total entrances. Although this data
is not displayed in the following tables, the majority of these 159 students enrolled from
outside of the country (46%), while the remainder of these students enrolled from outside of
Massachusetts, from private school, or from Massachusetts. The majority of these 159
students exited because they moved out of Newton (51%) or moved out of the country
(38%), while the remaining students left to attend private school or became home schooled.
School
All
2013-14
Entrances
Oct 1 2014
Enrolled
from MA*
Oct 1 2014
Enrolled
from
outside of
MA
Oct 1 2014
Enrolled
from
outside the
Country
Oct 1 2014
Enrolled
from
Private
School
Additional
Entrances
through
June 2015
All
2014-15
Entrances
Current
Year as of
October 1,
2015
All Grades 846 183 118 163 142 199 805 608
% of Total
Enrollment 6.8% 1.5% 0.9% 1.3% 1.1% 1.6% 6.4% 4.9%
22.7% 14.7% 20.2% 17.6% 24.7% 100.0%
* The majority of students in this category have enrolled from another MA community and
some have enrolled from an origin that is unknown.
FULL YEAR 2014-15 ENTRANCES AND 2015-16 ENTRANCES AS OF OCTOBER 1, 2015
SUMMARY ALL GRADES
% of All 2014-15 Entrances
- 86 -
TABLE 25
TABLE 26
School
All
2013-14
Entrances
Oct 1 2014
Enrolled
from MA*
Oct 1 2014
Enrolled
from
outside of
MA
Oct 1 2014
Enrolled
from
outside the
Country
Oct 1 2014
Enrolled
from
Private
School
Additional
Entrances
through
June 2015
All
2014-15
Entrances
Current
Year as of
October 1,
2015
Angier 17 5 4 7 16 23
Bowen 53 15 1 9 7 8 40 29
Burr 18 10 4 5 2 1 22 15
Cabot 38 5 6 4 2 3 20 24
Countryside 28 9 13 7 3 11 43 28
Franklin 17 7 3 5 9 24 16
Horace Mann 40 11 5 3 8 27 9
Lincoln-Eliot 32 8 5 2 2 13 30 22
Mason-Rice 30 3 8 10 2 5 28 23
Memorial-Spaulding 33 8 11 7 2 12 40 29
Peirce 26 3 4 1 6 14 22
Underwood 42 4 1 3 5 7 20 20
Ward 28 4 7 7 6 5 29 19
Williams 32 8 1 8 4 20 41 18
Zervas 17 6 2 3 4 15 16
Total 451 106 68 70 46 119 409 313
% of Elementary
Enrollment 7.8% 1.8% 1.2% 1.2% 0.8% 2.0% 7.0% 5.4%
25.9% 16.6% 17.1% 11.2% 29.1% 100.0%
* The majority of students in this category have enrolled from another MA community and
some have enrolled from an origin that is unknown.
ENTERING ELEMENTARY SCHOOL STUDENTS
JULY 2014 - JUNE 2015 AND 2015-16 ENTRANCES AS OF OCTOBER 1, 2015
% of All 2014-15 Entrances
School
All
2013-14
Entrances
Oct 1 2014
Enrolled
from MA*
Oct 1 2014
Enrolled
from
outside of
MA
Oct 1 2014
Enrolled
from
outside the
Country
Oct 1 2014
Enrolled
from
Private
School
Additional
Entrances
through
June 2015
All
2014-15
Entrances
Current
Year as of
October 1,
2015
Bigelow 25 7 8 19 7 13 54 25
Brown 44 11 8 7 6 5 37 29
Day 42 8 11 6 4 8 37 25
Oak Hill 41 21 8 2 11 42 31
Total 152 47 27 40 19 37 170 110
% of Middle School
Enrollment 5.3% 1.7% 1.0% 1.4% 0.7% 1.3% 6.1% 3.9%
27.6% 15.9% 23.5% 11.2% 21.8% 100.0%
* The majority of students in this category have enrolled from another MA community and
some have enrolled from an origin that is unknown.
ENTERING MIDDLE SCHOOL STUDENTS
JULY 2014 - JUNE 2015 AND 2015-16 ENTRANCES AS OF OCTOBER 1, 2015
% of All 2014-15 Entrances
- 87 -
TABLE 27
School
All
2013-14
Entrances
Oct 1 2014
Enrolled
from MA*
Oct 1 2014
Enrolled
from
outside of
MA
Oct 1 2014
Enrolled
from
outside the
Country
Oct 1 2014
Enrolled
from
Private
School
Additional
Entrances
through
June 2015
All
2014-15
Entrances
Current
Year as of
October 1,
2015
North High 137 21 11 16 38 16 102 99
South High 106 9 12 37 39 27 124 86
Total 243 30 23 53 77 43 226 185
% of High School
Enrollment 6.4% 0.8% 0.6% 1.4% 2.0% 1.1% 5.8% 4.7%
13.3% 10.2% 23.5% 34.1% 19.0% 100.0%
* The majority of students in this category have enrolled from another MA community and
some have enrolled from an origin that is unknown.
ENTERING HIGH SCHOOL STUDENTS
JULY 2014 - JUNE 2015 AND 2015-16 ENTRANCES AS OF OCTOBER 1, 2015
% of All 2014-15 Entrances
- 88 -
VI. NON-PUBLIC/PRIVATE SCHOOL STUDENTS
This sector privatedistributerequired age popuindependor studenSchools a
In 2014-public scwhen 18.decrease school-ag
Figures 1figures shremainedpopulatioincreases
NON
tion reports oe schools. Ted in the spriby Massach
ulation is attedent schools,nts who are hare included
15, 18.1% ofchools. This .2% of the scof one stude
ge populatio
1 and 2 displhow that althd relatively son in Newtons in enrollme
N-PUBLIC
on school-agThe data wasing. A censu
husetts law. ending schoo, private spechome schoold in the censu
f the school-represents a
chool-age poent in 2013-
on enrolled in
lay a history hough the nusimilar over tn enrolled inent in the Ne
C/PRIVA
ge children rs previously us of non-puThis census ol outside ofcial educatioled. Special us.
-age populata decrease ofopulation wa14. The percn Newton Pu
of enrollmeumber of stuthe past thre
n non-publicewton Public
TE SCHO
esiding in Nreported eac
ublic school is useful to
f Newton Pubon schools, oeducation s
tion, or 2,765f 0.1 percentas enrolled incentage decrublic School
ent in non-puudents enrollee years, the schools has
c Schools ov
OOL STUD
Newton who ch year in a sstudents is cunderstand w
ublic Schoolsother public students plac
5 students, wtage points fn non-publicrease is due ls compared
ublic schoolsled in non-pupercentage o
s decreased. ver the past th
DENTS
are attendinseparate memconducted eawhere Newts, and includschools, cha
ced out by Ne
were enrolledfrom the prevc schools. Tto an increato last year.
s in Newtonublic schoolsof the schoo This is due hree years.
g non-publicmorandum ach year, as ton’s school-des private arter schools
Newton Publi
d in non-vious year,
This is a se in the
. These s has
ol-age to the
c,
-
s, c
- 89 -
The chart below shows the breakdown of non-public school enrollment by type of school in
2014-15. The majority of the school-age population in Newton who are enrolled in non-
public schools are enrolled in Massachusetts private schools.
The remainder of this section examines non-public schools enrollment at the three grade
levels and by districted Newton school.
The percentage of the school-age population attending non-public schools at the elementary,
middle, and high school grade levels over time is illustrated in Figure 3 below. There is a
consistent history of higher rates of enrollment in non-public schools at the secondary grade
levels (grades 6-12), where almost 21% of the school-age population is enrolled in non-
public schools this year. At the middle school level, the percentage of students enrolled in
non-public schools is almost the same as last year at 20.7%. At the high school level, the
percentage of students enrolled in non-public schools increased slightly. In total, elementary
students continue to be enrolled in non-public schools at a rate between 15% and 16% as they
have since 2006, although the rate has declined slightly this year.
Special
Education
Collaborative
Charter
School
Other Public
School
Home
Schooled
In-State
Private School
Out-of-State
Private School
<1% <1% <1% 1% 97% 1%
PERCENT OF NON-PUBLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENT BY TYPE OF SCHOOL
FIGURE 3
- 90 -
Three additional tables are included in this section. Table 28 displays non-public school enrollment by grade and Table 29 presents this information further delineated by districted school. Table 30 displays the distribution of Newton Public Schools students who are placed out-of-district due to the special education needs of the students by grade level and districted school. Highlights of these tables are described below:
The number of students enrolled in non-public schools increased at the high school level compared to 2013-14, while it decreased at the elementary and middle school levels. This overall increase at the high school is due to increases in the number of 10th and 12th grade students enrolled in non-public schools.
Grade 6 and Grade 9, both transition years in Newton, show small decreases in the
number of students enrolled at non-public schools from the prior year, -6 and -3 students respectively. In 2013-14, these grades showed enrollment increases of +27 and +33 students respectively.
Enrollment of students with special education placements attending private schools,
special education collaborative programs, or other public schools has decreased from 141 to 131 students, a 7% decline. This is similar to 2013-14 when there was a decline of 9%, from 155 to 141 students.
- 91 -
K 158 14.2% 127 11.9% -31 -19.6%1 179 15.5% 156 13.5% -23 -12.8%2 152 13.9% 192 16.4% 40 26.3%3 169 14.7% 158 14.3% -11 -6.5%4 201 16.8% 182 15.7% -19 -9.5%5 208 18.1% 211 17.6% 3 1.4%
Total 1,067 15.5% 1,026 15.0% -41 -3.8%
6 246 20.1% 240 20.7% -6 -2.4%7 233 20.0% 253 20.8% 20 8.6%8 259 21.6% 239 20.6% -20 -7.7%
Total 738 20.6% 732 20.7% -6 -0.8%
9 235 19.5% 232 19.0% -3 -1.3%10 205 17.7% 246 20.4% 41 20.0%11 267 22.6% 215 18.0% -52 -19.5%12 254 21.0% 314 25.1% 60 23.6%
Total 961 20.2% 1,007 20.7% 46 4.8%
Grand Total 2,766 18.2% 2,765 18.1% -1 0.0%
% of School-Age Population
% of School-Age Population
N 2013-
14
N 2014-
15
Note: Students that are special education and beyond grade 12 are reported as grade 12.
Change from Prior Year (N, %)Grade
TABLE 28
NON-PUBLIC SCHOOL STUDENTS AS PERCENT OFTOTAL SCHOOL-AGE POPULATION
BY GRADE
- 92 -
Elementary District NAge
Population K 1 2 3 4 5 NAge
Population
Angier 74 15.1% 7 14 11 11 17 14 74 15.5%Bowen 74 12.8% 9 13 16 16 7 18 79 14.3%Burr 22 4.9% 2 6 2 2 1 1 14 3.2%Cabot 83 16.5% 7 15 13 14 14 19 82 16.4%Countryside 88 16.1% 12 13 13 9 12 20 79 14.5%Franklin 37 8.7% 5 4 7 3 6 8 33 7.4%Horace Mann 42 9.0% 7 5 9 6 8 6 41 8.6%Lincoln-Eliot 32 8.9% 4 2 6 8 4 3 27 7.4%Mason-Rice 118 20.5% 10 19 20 18 18 28 113 19.1%Memorial-Spaulding 121 22.0% 20 22 22 16 36 14 130 23.0%Peirce 94 23.2% 10 12 23 10 16 24 95 23.7%Underwood 62 15.9% 6 6 11 15 11 14 63 15.6%Ward 136 32.0% 11 16 21 19 20 23 110 26.6%Williams 25 7.6% 4 1 5 4 1 5 20 6.4%Zervas 59 15.7% 13 8 13 7 11 14 66 17.6%Total Elementary 1,067 15.5% 127 156 192 158 182 211 1,026 15.0%
6 7 8Bigelow Middle 133 20.2% 44 40 38 122 19.5%Brown Middle 210 22.0% 75 75 61 211 22.2%Day Middle 214 18.4% 57 74 83 214 18.7%Oak Hill Middle 181 22.2% 64 64 57 185 22.6%Total Middle School 738 20.6% 240 253 239 732 20.7%
9 10 11 12Newton North 466 18.8% 102 98 98 145 443 17.7%Newton South 495 21.8% 130 148 117 169 564 23.8%Total High School 961 20.2% 232 246 215 314 1007 20.7%
GRAND TOTAL 2,766 18.2% 2,765 18.1%Notes1) Students that are special education and beyond grade 12 are reported as grade 12.2) Students residing in buffer zones are assigned a districted school according to the attendance percentages of currently enrolled buffer zone resident students.
BY DISTRICTED SCHOOL AND GRADE LEVEL
NON-PUBLIC SCHOOL STUDENTS
TABLE 29
AS PERCENT OF TOTAL SCHOOL-AGE POPULATION
2014-152014-15 by Grade2013-14
- 93 -
Total TotalAs of As of
Elementary 2013-14 PK K 1 2 3 4 5 2014-15
Angier 0 0Bowen 0 0Burr 0 0Cabot 0 0Countryside 5 1 2 3Franklin 1 2 2Horace Mann 3 1 1 2 4Lincoln-Eliot 3 1 1Mason-Rice 2 1 1Memorial-Spaulding 3 1 1 1 3Peirce 0 1 1Underwood 0 0Ward 1 1 1Williams 1 0Zervas 0 0Total Elementary 19 3 1 1 2 1 4 4 16
6 7 8
Bigelow Middle 6 1 1 3 5Brown Middle 7 2 5 7Day Middle 13 2 7 7 16Oak Hill Middle 14 1 5 4 10Total Middle School 40 6 18 14 38
9 10 11 12
Newton North 44 3 10 8 16 37Newton South 38 10 4 10 16 40Total High School 82 13 14 18 32 77Grand Total 141 131
Note: Students that are special education and beyond grade 12 are reported as grade 12.
2014-15 Grade
TABLE 30
SPECIAL EDUCATION STUDENTSTUITIONED-OUT TO NON-PUBLIC SCHOOLS
BY DISTRICTED SCHOOL AND GRADE LEVEL
- 94 -
APPENDICES
A. SPECIAL ENROLLMENTS
B. BUFFER ZONE INFORMATION
C. CITY OF NEWTON POPULATION GROWTH
D. RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY DATA
E. NESDEC’S ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
F. TOTAL ENROLLMENT BY HIGH SCHOOL FEEDER PATTERNS
APPENDIX A SPECIAL ENROLLMENTS
This section looks at enrollments in specific programs for students enrolled in the Newton Public Schools including the Metropolitan Council for Educational Opportunity (METCO), English Language Learners, students receiving Special Education services and non-residents. METCO Enrollment (Table 1) The number of students participating in the METCO Program in the Newton Schools as of October 1, 2015 is 429. Of the 429 students, 44% are enrolled in the elementary schools, 29% are at the middle schools, and 27% are at the high schools.
K 1 2 3 4 5
Angier 3 4 3 10
Bowen 1 5 4 4 4 18
Burr 1 4 5
Cabot 5 4 4 1 1 15
Countryside 2 3 5
Franklin 2 4 2 1 1 10
Horace Mann 2 2 2 2 2 10
Lincoln-Eliot 5 2 4 4 2 17
Mason-Rice 1 7 2 1 11
Memorial-Spaulding 3 4 2 1 3 13
Peirce 3 2 1 1 2 4 13
Underwood 2 4 5 5 3 2 21
Ward 3 4 2 1 2 12
Williams 2 2 7 2 13
Zervas 4 6 3 3 1 17
Total Elementary 17 39 44 40 23 27 0 190
44.3%
6 7 8
5 12 12 29
10 6 12 28
12 10 10 32
9 13 13 35
36 41 47 0 124
28.9%
9 10 11 12
14 12 20 17 63
12 11 14 15 52
26 23 34 32 0 115
26.8%
429
* The enrollment includes students who receive special education services outside the regular classroom for a significant amount of time.
Bigelow
Brown
Day
Oak Hill
Grand Total
North High
South High
Total High School
Total Middle
Grade level as % of all METCO students
Grade level as % of all METCO students
TABLE 1
BY SCHOOL AND GRADEGrade
2015-16 METCO ENROLLMENT
SchoolSpecial
Education*Total
Grade level as % of all METCO students
- 95 -
English Language Learners (Tables 2 and 3) Table 2 indicates a decrease of 48 students, or -5.5%, in the number of K-12 students identified as "English Language Learners" and enrolled in the state-mandated Sheltered English Immersion Program from last year. There are a total of 827 students in the program this year versus 875 students one year ago. The English Language Learners population has grown by 511 students, or 162%, since 1990.
Table 3 on the following page shows the number of English Language Learner students by grade level in the current year and the two years prior. The elementary ELL population has decreased by 46 students in 2015-16 compared to the prior year. The ELL population at the secondary level in grades 6 -12 has decreased by 2 students from the prior year. Table 3 also shows the number of students in each of the seven largest language groups for this school year and the prior two school years. The students in these groups receive native language support as needed. "Other" languages including French, Vietnamese, Pushtu/Pashtu, and Arabic represent 22% of the total ELL program enrollment in 2015-16.
Year (as of October 1) Program Enrollment Difference % Change
1990 316
1991 390 74 23.4%
1992 414 24 6.2%
1993 486 72 17.4%
1994 468 -18 -3.7%
1995 454 -14 -3.0%
1996 485 31 6.8%
1997 480 -5 -1.0%
1998 466 -14 -2.9%
1999 509 43 9.2%
2000 566 57 11.2%
2001 581 15 2.7%
2002 551 -30 -5.2%
2003 545 -6 -1.1%
2004 551 6 1.1%
2005 522 -29 -5.3%
2006 553 31 5.9%
2007 635 82 14.8%
2008 650 15 2.4%
2009 687 37 5.7%
2010 766 79 11.5%
2011 783 17 2.2%
2012 778 -5 -0.6%
2013 911 133 17.1%
2014 875 -36 -4.0%
2015 827 -48 -5.5%
TABLE 2
1990 - PRESENTENGLISH LANGUAGE LEARNERS
- 96 -
LA
NG
UA
GE
K-5
6-12
To
tal
K-5
6-12
To
tal
K-5
6-12
To
tal
K-5
6-12
To
tal
K-5
6-12
To
tal
Chi
nese
(A
ll F
orm
s)18
070
250
174
6924
3-6
-1-7
157
8624
3-1
717
0
Rus
sian
117
2314
010
813
121
-9-1
0-1
910
216
118
-63
-3
Spa
nish
6632
9869
3099
3-2
176
2399
7-7
0
Kor
ean
5227
7939
2564
-13
-2-1
537
1148
-2-1
4-1
6
Japa
nese
348
4235
1045
12
329
534
-6-5
-11
Heb
rew
5918
7755
1671
-4-2
-651
1263
-4-4
-8
Por
tugu
ese
2621
4729
1948
3-2
121
1738
-8-2
-10
Oth
er12
454
178
127
5718
43
36
117
6718
4-1
010
0
TO
TA
L65
825
391
163
623
987
5-2
2-1
4-3
659
023
782
7-4
6-2
-48
TR
EN
DS
OV
ER
TH
RE
E Y
EA
RS
2014
-15
vs.
2015
-16
TA
BL
E 3
BY
FIR
ST
LA
NG
UA
GE
AN
D G
RA
DE
LE
VE
L
2013
-14
vs.
2014
-15
EN
GL
ISH
LA
NG
UA
GE
LE
AR
NE
RS
Dif
fere
nce
Dif
fere
nce
20
15
-16
20
14
-15
20
13
-14
- 97 -
Students with Special Education Services (Table 4) The following table reports five years of history of the distribution of students requiring special education services by placement type and grade level. Program placement type is defined according to the time out of the regular classroom environment required by a special education placement. The majority of students with special education services are fully included in the general education classroom, with less than 21% of time spent outside of the classroom. For all grade levels combined, the percentage of students with special education services in the Newton Public Schools is 19.2% this year. This is an increase of 14 students from last school year; however, the percentage of special education students compared to district enrollment is similar to last year, when 19.1% of district students received special education services. There are more special education students at the elementary grade level this year with 860 students, or 14.9% of total enrollment, versus 853 students last year, or 14.6%. There are 41 fewer special education students at the middle school level this year, or 21.2% of total enrollment, which is a decrease from 22.7% in 2014-15. There is an increase of 48 special education students at the high school level, representing 24% of total enrollment. For the third year in a row, there has been a decrease in out of district placements as of October 2015, with fewer students placed out of district to private special education schools (123 students vs. 126 in October 2014 and 136 in October 2013). Ten year trends in the distribution of students by special education placement and grade level are illustrated in the graph at the end of the section.
TABLE 4 DISTRIBUTION OF STUDENTS RECEIVING SPECIAL EDUCATION SERVICES
Level 10 20 40* 41* 50 60* 70 90
% of Time Outside Classroom <21% 21-60% >60% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Elementary 758 77 16 1 8 0 0 0 860 14.9%
Middle 401 121 41 3 29 2 0 0 597 21.2%
High 627 132 107 7 50 19 0 4 946 24.2%
Total 1,786 330 164 11 87 21 0 4 2,403 19.2%
Level 10 20 40* 41* 50 60* 70 90
% of Time Outside Classroom <21% 21-60% >60% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Elementary 749 79 14 2 9 0 0 853 14.6%
Middle 416 132 54 5 30 0 1 638 22.7%
High 587 139 93 10 57 9 0 3 898 23.2%
Total 1,752 350 161 17 96 9 0 4 2,389 19.1%
**Pre-school students are not included. If Pre-school students (107) were included in this table, the total Special Education population would be 2,510 (20.1%).
October 2015
Level of Service
Total Special Education**
% of Total Enrollment
*The Level of Service of "40" is the highest level of service within Newton Public Schools and is defined as "All ages, in a substantially separate classroom"; "41" and "50" is "All ages, in a Public/Private Separate Day School"; "60" and higher is "All ages, in a Residential School." Tuitioned out students are included in codes "41" and higher.
October 2014
Level of Service
Total Special Education**
% of Total Enrollment
*The Level of Service of "40" is the highest level of service within Newton Public Schools and is defined as "All ages, in a substantially separate classroom"; "41" and "50" is "All ages, in a Public/Private Separate Day School"; "60" and higher is "All ages, in a Residential School." Tuitioned out students are included in codes "41" and higher.
**Pre-school students are not included. If Pre-school students (131) were included in this table, the total Special Education population would be 2,520 (20.2%).
- 98 -
Level
% of Time O
Elementary
Middle
High
Total
Level
% of Time O
Elementary
Middle
High
Total
Level
% of Time O
Elementary
Middle
High
Total
**Pre-schoolwould be 2,4
*The Level ofseparate claSchool." Tu
*The Level ofseparate claSchool." Tu
**Pre-schoolwould be 2,4
**Pre-schoolwould be 2,4
*The Level ofseparate claSchool." Tu
DISTRIBUTI
PERCENTAG
Outside Classroom
Outside Classroom
Outside Classroom
students are not 464 (20.7%).
f Service of "40" isssroom"; "41" anditioned out studen
f Service of "40" isssroom"; "41" anditioned out studen
students are not 439 (19.6%).
students are not 475 (19.9%).
f Service of "40" isssroom"; "41" anditioned out studen
ION OF STUD
GE OF STUD
10 2
m <21% 21-
728 7
424 1
585 1
1,737 3
10 2
m <21% 21-
717 6
425 1
548 1
1,690 3
10 2
m <21% 21-
735 6
464 1
513 1
1,712 3
included. If Pre-s
s the highest leveld "50" is "All agesnts are included in
s the highest leveld "50" is "All agesnts are included in
included. If Pre-s
included. If Pre-s
s the highest leveld "50" is "All agesnts are included in
TABLE 4DENTS RECE
TEN YEADENTS RECE
20 40*
-60% >60% 1
71 12
139 43
128 97
338 152
20 40*
-60% >60% 1
67 35
129 24
130 96
326 155
20 40*
-60% >60% 1
69 42
121 8
123 127
313 177
school students (1
Oc
Le
of service within s, in a Public/Privan codes "41" and h
Oc
Le
of service within s, in a Public/Privan codes "41" and h
school students (1
school students (1
Oc
Le
of service within s, in a Public/Privan codes "41" and h
4 (ContinuedEIVING SPEC
AR TRENDS
EIVING SPEC
41* 50
100% 100% 1
2 13
4 31
6 67
12 111
41* 50
100% 100% 1
1 18
2 26
8 73
11 117
41* 50
100% 100% 1
0 16
2 26
9 72
11 114
119) were included
ctober 2011
evel of Service
Newton Public Scate Separate Day higher.
ctober 2012
evel of Service
Newton Public Scate Separate Day higher.
122) were included
112) were included
ctober 2013
evel of Service
Newton Public Scate Separate Day higher.
d) CIAL EDUCA
S CIAL EDUCA
60* 70
100% 100% 1
0 0
1 0
9 0
10 0
60* 70
100% 100% 1
0 0
2 0
13 0
15 0
60* 70
100% 100% 1
1 0
1 0
13 0
15 0
d in this table, the
chools and is definSchool"; "60" and
chools and is definSchool"; "60" and
d in this table, the
d in this table, the
chools and is definSchool"; "60" and
ATION SERV
ATION SERVI
90
100%
0 826
0 642
3 895
3 2,36
90
100%
0 838
0 608
3 871
3 2,31
90
100%
0 863
0 622
3 860
3 2,34
e total Special Edu
Total SpEducat
ned as "All ages, id higher is "All ag
Total SpEducat
ned as "All ages, id higher is "All ag
e total Special Edu
e total Special Edu
Total SpEducat
ned as "All ages, id higher is "All ag
ICES
CES
6 14.2%
2 22.5%
5 23.6%
63 19.0%
8 14.5%
8 22.4%
1 23.8%
7 19.0%
3 15.2%
2 23.3%
0 24.1%
45 19.7%
ucation population
pecial ion**
% of ToEnrollme
in a substantially ges, in a Resident
pecial ion**
% of ToEnrollme
in a substantially ges, in a Resident
ucation population
ucation population
pecial ion**
% of ToEnrollme
in a substantially ges, in a Resident
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
n
otal ent
ial
otal ent
ial
n
n
otal ent
ial
- 99 -
Non-Resident Students (Table 5) The number of non-resident students attending the Newton Public Schools decreased by 5 students since last year, or -0.8%, and is currently 592 students.
Category 2014-15 2015-16 Difference % Change
METCO Program Students 421 429 8 1.9%
Tuition-In Students 2 2 0 0.0%
Hearing Impaired (EDCO) 28 20 -8 -28.6%
Faculty Children 107 110 3 2.8%
Approved to Attend* 21 15 -6 -28.6%
Foreign Exchange Student 18 16 -2 -11.1%
TOTAL 597 592 -5 -0.8%
TABLE 5NON-RESIDENT STUDENTS
OCTOBER 1, 2014 AND OCTOBER 1, 2015
* Students may be "Approved to Attend" for reasons including status as a homeless student or state ward, or due to another time-limited residency issue.
- 100 -
AP
PE
ND
IX B
TA
BL
E 6
Ele
men
tary
Stu
den
ts b
y D
istr
ict
wit
h B
uff
er Z
on
esO
cto
ber
201
5
Ele
men
tary
Dis
tric
tS
choo
l Att
endi
ngK
12
34
5T
otal
Tot
al S
tude
nts
in
Dis
tric
t in
clud
ing
Out
-of-
Ass
igne
d D
istr
ict
Stu
dent
s
2015
-16
% o
f D
istr
ict
2015
-16
% o
f T
otal
S
tude
nts
2014
-15
% o
f D
istr
ict
2014
-15
% o
f T
otal
S
tude
nts
Bu
ffer
Zo
nes
AN
GIE
R-C
OU
NT
RY
SID
EA
ngie
r59
32%
(Stu
dent
Ass
ignm
ent
Cha
nge
2015
-16)
Cou
ntry
side
127
68%
(Zon
e E
limin
ated
)S
ubto
tal
186
100%
AN
GIE
R-W
ILLI
AM
SA
ngie
r0
00
01
01
4%0%
2649
%(S
tude
nt A
ssig
nmen
t C
hang
e 20
15-1
6)W
illia
ms
62
83
61
2696
%0%
2751
%(Z
one
Bou
ndar
y C
hang
e)S
ubto
tal
62
83
71
2727
100%
0%53
100%
AN
GIE
R-Z
ER
VA
SA
ngie
r8
52
84
128
97%
1%(S
tude
nt A
ssig
nmen
t C
hang
e 20
15-1
6)Z
erva
s0
00
01
01
3%0%
(New
Zon
e)S
ubto
tal
85
28
51
2977
100%
1%
BO
WE
N-C
OU
NT
RY
SID
EB
owen
15
45
30
1829
%0%
1829
%(E
xpan
ded
in 2
011-
12)
Cou
ntry
side
68
66
910
4571
%1%
4571
%S
ubto
tal
713
1011
1210
6363
100%
1%63
100%
BO
WE
N-M
AS
ON
-RIC
EB
owen
56
104
69
4083
%1%
9067
%(S
tude
nt A
ssig
nmen
t C
hang
e 20
15-1
6)M
ason
-Ric
e3
30
11
08
17%
0%44
33%
(Zon
e B
ound
ary
Cha
nge)
Sub
tota
l8
910
57
948
4910
0%1%
134
100%
BO
WE
N-M
EM
OR
IAL-
SP
AU
LDIN
GB
owen
65
176
129
5592
%1%
6198
%(N
ew in
201
4-15
)M
emor
ial-S
paul
ding
41
00
00
58%
0%1
2%S
ubto
tal
106
176
129
6064
100%
1%62
100%
BO
WE
N-W
AR
DB
owen
71
52
33
2191
%0%
2195
%(N
ew in
201
4-15
)W
ard
00
10
10
29%
0%1
5%S
ubto
tal
71
62
43
2324
100%
0%22
100%
BU
RR
-FR
AN
KLI
NB
urr
82
23
32
2045
%0%
1643
%(E
xpan
ded
in 2
012-
13)
Fra
nklin
36
32
46
2455
%0%
2157
%S
ubto
tal
118
55
78
4445
100%
1%37
100%
BU
RR
-WIL
LIA
MS
Bur
r33
49%
(Stu
dent
Ass
ignm
ent
Cha
nge
2015
-16)
Will
iam
s35
51%
(Zon
e E
limin
ated
)S
ubto
tal
6810
0%
CA
BO
T-H
OR
AC
E M
AN
NC
abot
20
00
00
210
%0%
(Stu
dent
Ass
ignm
ent
Cha
nge
2015
-16)
Hor
ace
Man
n2
13
62
418
90%
0%(N
ew Z
one)
Sub
tota
l4
13
62
420
2010
0%0%
- 101 -
AP
PE
ND
IX B
TA
BL
E 6
Ele
men
tary
Stu
den
ts b
y D
istr
ict
wit
h B
uff
er Z
on
esO
cto
ber
201
5
Ele
men
tary
Dis
tric
tS
choo
l Att
endi
ngK
12
34
5T
otal
Tot
al S
tude
nts
in
Dis
tric
t in
clud
ing
Out
-of-
Ass
igne
d D
istr
ict
Stu
dent
s
2015
-16
% o
f D
istr
ict
2015
-16
% o
f T
otal
S
tude
nts
2014
-15
% o
f D
istr
ict
2014
-15
% o
f T
otal
S
tude
nts
CO
UN
TR
YS
IDE
-ME
MO
RIA
L-S
PA
ULD
ING
Cou
ntry
side
00
00
00
00%
0%0
0%M
emor
ial-S
paul
ding
00
01
20
310
0%0%
310
0%S
ubto
tal
00
01
20
33
100%
0%3
100%
CO
UN
TR
YS
IDE
-ZE
RV
AS
Cou
ntry
side
65
64
55
3197
%1%
110
0%(S
tude
nt A
ssig
nmen
t C
hang
e 20
15-1
6)Z
erva
s0
00
10
01
3%0%
00%
(Zon
e B
ound
ary
Cha
nge)
Sub
tota
l6
56
55
532
4510
0%1%
110
0%
FR
AN
KLI
N-H
OR
AC
E M
AN
NF
rank
lin4
52
62
019
37%
0%16
31%
Hor
ace
Man
n7
54
56
633
63%
1%36
69%
Sub
tota
l11
106
118
652
5310
0%1%
5210
0%
HO
RA
CE
MA
NN
-LIN
CO
LN-E
LIO
TH
orac
e M
ann
12
21
62
1458
%0%
1571
%Li
ncol
n-E
liot
31
32
01
1042
%0%
629
%S
ubto
tal
43
53
63
2426
100%
0%21
100%
MA
SO
N-R
ICE
-WA
RD
Mas
on-R
ice
56
67
95
3876
%1%
4075
%W
ard
14
31
12
1224
%0%
1325
%S
ubto
tal
610
98
107
5052
100%
1%53
100%
MA
SO
N-R
ICE
-ZE
RV
AS
Mas
on-R
ice
360
%(S
tude
nt A
ssig
nmen
t C
hang
e 20
15-1
6)Z
erva
s2
40%
(Zon
e E
limin
ated
)S
ubto
tal
510
0%
PE
IRC
E-W
ILLI
AM
SP
eirc
e9
1616
817
874
76%
1%75
81%
Will
iam
s5
32
56
223
24%
0%18
19%
Sub
tota
l14
1918
1 323
1097
9710
0%2%
9310
0%
UN
DE
RW
OO
D-W
AR
DU
nder
woo
d1
10
11
04
100%
0%2
100%
War
d0
00
00
00
0%0%
00%
Sub
tota
l1
10
11
04
510
0%0%
210
0%
To
tal
Bu
ffer
Zo
nes
103
9310
588
111
7657
665
010
0%10
%85
510
0%
- 102 -
AP
PE
ND
IX B
TA
BL
E 6
Ele
men
tary
Stu
den
ts b
y D
istr
ict
wit
h B
uff
er Z
on
esO
cto
ber
201
5
Ele
men
tary
Dis
tric
tS
choo
l Att
endi
ngK
12
34
5T
otal
Tot
al S
tude
nts
in
Dis
tric
t in
clud
ing
Out
-of-
Ass
igne
d D
istr
ict
Stu
dent
s
2015
-16
% o
f D
istr
ict
2015
-16
% o
f T
otal
S
tude
nts
2014
-15
% o
f D
istr
ict
2014
-15
% o
f T
otal
S
tude
nts
Reg
ula
r D
istr
icts
AN
GIE
RA
ngie
r48
5351
4338
5929
233
07%
5%26
16%
BO
WE
NB
owen
3644
4339
3244
238
244
5%4%
243
5%B
UR
RB
urr
5061
5957
5553
335
350
8%6%
349
8%C
AB
OT
Cab
ot49
6056
6662
7536
839
08%
7%38
29%
CO
UN
TR
YS
IDE
Cou
ntry
side
4651
4258
4850
295
341
7%5%
274
6%F
RA
NK
LIN
Fra
nklin
5971
6059
6442
355
384
8%6%
351
8%H
OR
AC
E M
AN
NH
orac
e M
ann
4152
5354
5249
301
315
7%5%
330
7%LI
NC
OLN
-ELI
OT
Linc
oln-
Elio
t51
4854
4446
5229
532
57%
5%29
97%
MA
SO
N-R
ICE
Mas
on-R
ice
5856
6155
3851
319
345
7%6%
354
8%M
EM
OR
IAL-
SP
AU
LDIN
GM
emor
ial-S
paul
ding
6877
6862
6578
418
427
9%8%
405
9%P
EIR
CE
Pei
rce
2734
2340
4037
201
211
5%4%
195
4%U
ND
ER
WO
OD
Und
erw
ood
3661
4443
4647
277
294
6%5%
294
7%W
AR
DW
ard
3841
4852
4436
259
266
6%5%
256
6%W
ILLI
AM
SW
illia
ms
4229
3134
2730
193
235
4%4%
189
4%Z
ER
VA
SZ
erva
s40
4644
4434
5326
139
56%
5%26
66%
To
tal
Reg
ula
r D
istr
icts
689
784
737
750
691
756
4,40
74,
852
100%
80%
4,44
810
0%
Ou
t-o
f-A
ssig
ned
Dis
tric
t S
tud
ents
5069
9986
110
105
519
9%24
7
To
tal
Stu
den
ts84
294
694
192
491
293
75,
502
5,50
210
0%5,
550
NO
TE
S:
1.)
The
fig
ures
in t
his
tabl
e ar
e ba
sed
on p
relim
inar
y en
rollm
ents
and
are
der
ived
fro
m r
esid
ent
stud
ents
onl
y.2.
) T
he f
igur
es in
thi
s ta
ble
do n
ot in
clud
e st
uden
ts a
tten
ding
priv
ate
scho
ols.
- 103 -
Age Range1990
Census*2000
Census*2010
Census*
Change 2010 Census vs. 2000
Census % Change
0-4 4,423 4,401 4,497 96 2.2%
5-9 4,411 5,014 5,290 276 5.5%
10-14 3,935 5,267 5,336 69 1.3%
15-19 6,800 6,653 8,017 1,364 20.5%
20-24 7,189 5,133 5,594 461 9.0%
25-34 13,609 10,809 8,268 (2,541) -23.5%
35-44 13,590 12,823 10,755 (2,068) -16.1%
45-54 9,025 13,400 12,621 (779) -5.8%
55-59 3,569 4,408 6,132 1,724 39.1%
60-64 3,743 3,281 5,657 2,376 72.4%
65-74 6,449 5,918 6,197 279 4.7%
75-84 4,248 4,667 4,294 (373) -8.0%
85 and Older 1,594 2,055 2,488 433 21.1%
Grand Total 82,585 83,829 85,146 1,317 1.6%
*Source: U.S. Census Bureau, City of Newton, Massachusetts Census
City of Newton, Massachusetts Population Growth
APPENDIX C
TABLE 7
- 104 -
Housing Type FY04% of Total in
FY04FY16
% of Total in FY16
# Change % Change
Single Family 16,885 69% 16,972 67% 87 1%
Condominium 3,489 14% 4,790 19% 1,301 37%
Two Family 3,224 13% 2,827 11% -397 -12%
Three Family 308 1% 285 1% -23 -7%
Apartment Buildings 176 1% 152 1% -24 -14%
Mixed Use 296 1% 245 1% -51 -17%
TOTAL PROPERTIES 24,378 100% 25,271 100% 893 4%Source: Newton Assessors Office
Type of Housing 2002% of
Resident Students
2015% of
Resident Students
Change Change %
Single Family 7,777 73% 7,988 66% 211 3%Two/Three Family 1,671 16% 1,860 15% 189 11%Condominiums 526 5% 1,316 11% 790 150%Apartment Buildings 251 2% 584 5% 333 133%Mixed Use / Other 389 4% 342 3% -47 -12%Total 10,614 100% 12,090 100% 1,476 285%Source: Newton Geographic Information Systems
APPENDIX D
TABLE 8
CITY OF NEWTON HOUSING TYPES
NEWTON PUBLIC SCHOOL CHILDREN BY HOUSING TYPE
Newton Public School Children by Housing Type
City of Newton Housing Types
- 105 -
School District 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Angier 64 60 71 42 50 45 68 58 70 67 47Angier/Williams 6 7 6 6 9 7 7 7 13 8 2Angier/Zervas 18Bowen 172 142 142 128 144 153 134 165 76 95 41Bowen/Mason-Rice 9 9 8 7 6 6 13 15 18 24 9Bowen/Memorial Spaulding 64 65 31Bowen/Ward 10 24 14Burr 65 41 45 39 45 36 54 55 51 60 30Burr/Williams 9 6 6 3 5 5 6 7 12 6Cabot 90 76 77 68 48 81 46 91 82 80 59Countryside 79 55 69 61 50 66 64 70 61 81 78Countryside/Angier 49 45 59 32 39 33 31 42 35 56Countryside/Bowen 13 12 11 12 14 11 10 5 12 12 8Countryside/Memorial-Spaulding 3 2 1 3 2 5 4 1 2 4 2Countryside/Zervas 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2Franklin 62 55 74 45 55 77 66 66 66 97 47Franklin/Burr 5 7 12 8 15 9 5 15 12 17 9Franklin/Horace Mann 7 7 4 7 6 9 3 8 4 9 2Horace Mann 50 43 56 37 38 49 32 52 53 56 24Horace Mann/Cabot 3Horace Mann/Lincoln-Eliot 7 7 11 5 4 4 7 9 13 8 7Lincoln-Eliot 69 77 69 42 43 47 49 62 66 65 49Mason-Rice 65 56 84 69 52 52 50 67 57 71 53Mason-Rice/Ward 15 4 12 11 6 6 4 12 11 12 5Memorial-Spaulding 111 91 92 77 91 100 94 114 98 111 95Peirce 40 54 59 43 34 39 33 49 47 38 32Underwood 72 65 54 56 56 48 55 76 73 67 53Underwood/Ward 4 1 5 1 1 2 3 3 2Ward 59 53 56 105 52 40 62 62 54 59 52Williams 35 61 32 21 33 28 31 33 41 41 22Williams/Peirce 12 10 9 14 4 10 10 18 13 15 11Zervas 52 39 52 47 45 45 43 52 46 57 59Zervas/Mason-Rice 1 3 1 1 2 2 1
Totals 1,227 1,089 1,173 995 948 1,013 985 1,216 1,165 1,311 864
* Calendar Year 2015 information is from January 1, 2015 to September 30, 2015.
Residential Property Sales by District January 2005 to September 2015
APPENDIX DTABLE 9
CITY OF NEWTON
- 106 -
APPEN
DIX D
TABLE 10
PROPER
TIES LISTED FOR SALE IN
NEW
TON, M
A. B
Y ELEMEN
TARY DISTR
ICT
SIN
GL
E F
AM
ILY
- S
F
CO
ND
O -
C M
UL
TI-
FA
MIL
Y -
MF
Sch
oo
l Dis
tric
t
Nu
mb
er o
f T
axab
le
Pro
per
ties
% F
or
Sal
eN
um
ber
fo
r S
ale
Nu
mb
er
for
Sal
e L
ast
Yea
r2
B.R
.3
B.R
.4
B.R
. 5
B.R
. 6+
B
.R.
1 B
.R.
2 B
.R.
3 B
.R.
4 B
.R.
5+ B
.R.
3 B
.R.
4 B
.R.
5+ B
.R.
SF
CM
F
Ang
ier
1,39
51.
6%23
155
35
53
11
78%
13%
9%10
0%B
owen
1,38
00.
7%9
152
23
11
78%
22%
0%10
0%B
urr
1,28
00.
4%5
152
11
180
%20
%0%
100%
Cab
ot1,
930
0.5%
1011
12
12
12
160
%10
%30
%10
0%C
ount
rysi
de1,
423
1.5%
2215
15
63
12
31
72%
23%
5%99
%F
rank
lin1,
704
0.3%
512
13
110
0%0%
0%10
0%H
orac
e M
ann
1,31
30.
5%6
121
11
11
133
%50
%17
%10
0%Li
ncol
n-E
liot
1,53
40.
5%8
81
11
11
21
24%
63%
13%
99%
Mas
on-R
ice
1,72
80.
4%7
101
24
100%
0%0%
100%
Mem
oria
l-Spa
uldi
ng2,
113
1.2%
2539
410
72
292
%8%
0%10
0%P
eirc
e1,
012
1.0%
1022
21
51
190
%10
%0%
100%
Und
erw
ood
1,43
21.
3%19
133
23
14
21
11
142
%47
%11
%10
0%W
ard
1,39
50.
9%13
161
54
21
92%
8%0%
100%
Will
iam
s75
80.
3%2
61
110
0%0%
0%10
0%Z
erva
s1,
238
1.8%
228
25
54
12
12
73%
27%
0%10
0%A
ngie
r/W
illia
ms
242
0.4%
12
110
0%0%
0%10
0%B
owen
/Mas
on R
ice
611
Bow
en/M
emor
ial-S
paul
ding
854
0.6%
58
22
10%
100%
0%10
0%B
urr
Will
iam
s12
4C
ount
rysi
de/A
ngie
r81
80.
0%10
Cou
ntry
side
/Bow
en32
10.
3%1
01
100%
0%0%
100%
Cou
ntry
side
/ M
emor
ial S
paul
din
661
Cou
ntry
side
/Zer
vas
34F
rank
lin/B
urr
195
1F
rank
lin/H
orac
e M
ann
146
Hor
ace
Man
n/Li
ncol
n-E
liot
221
1.4%
31
11
133
%33
%33
%10
0%M
ason
-Ric
e/W
ard
277
0.7%
22
11
100%
0%0%
100%
Und
erw
ood/
War
d76
1.3%
10
110
0%0%
0%10
0%W
illia
ms/
Pei
rce
246
1.6%
43
22
100%
0%0%
100%
Zer
vas/
Mas
on-R
ice
50T
ota
l25
,916
0.8%
203
245
228
4641
307
1112
96
14
673
%22
%5%
Last
Yea
r's P
rope
rty
Mix
245
537
4757
377
1112
123
04
13D
iffer
ence
-42
-3-9
-1-1
6-7
00
0-3
31
0-7
% D
iffer
ence
-17%
-60%
-24%
-2%
-28%
-19%
0%0%
0%-2
5%10
0%0%
-54%
Not
e: T
his
data
cam
e fr
om M
LS L
istin
gs o
f res
iden
tial p
rope
rtie
s fo
r sa
le in
New
ton,
Ma.
as
of 1
1/9/
2015
and
is s
ubje
ct to
cha
nge
on a
dai
ly b
asis
. O
nly
listin
gs c
lass
ified
as
"act
ive"
are
incl
uded
. T
here
may
be
othe
r pr
oper
ties
for
sale
in N
ewto
n th
at a
re n
ot c
onta
ined
on
this
list
ing
serv
ice.
The
num
ber
of ta
xabl
e pr
oper
ties
is u
pdat
ed a
s of
Nov
201
4.
% B
Y T
YP
E
- 107 -
NESDEC's Projections vs Newton's Projections
Grades K through 12
LevelFY17
2016-17FY18
2017-18FY19
2018-19FY20
2019-20FY21
2020-21Elementary 5,787 5,844 5,859 5,833 5,790Middle 2,838 2,857 2,855 2,901 2,999High School 3,851 3,883 3,937 4,012 4,008Special Education 104 104 104 104 104Total 12,580 12,688 12,755 12,850 12,901
LevelFY17
2016-17FY18
2017-18FY19
2018-19FY20
2019-20FY21
2020-21Elementary 5,769 5,819 5,815 5,774 5,736Middle 2,833 2,845 2,836 2,865 2,952High School 3,850 3,878 3,919 3,976 3,957Special Education 104 104 104 104 104Total 12,556 12,646 12,674 12,719 12,749
LevelFY17
2016-17FY18
2017-18FY19
2018-19FY20
2019-20FY21
2020-21Elementary 18 25 44 59 54Middle 5 12 19 36 47High School 1 5 18 36 51Special Education 0 0 0 0 0Total 24 42 81 131 152
LevelFY17
2016-17FY18
2017-18FY19
2018-19FY20
2019-20FY21
2020-21Kindergarten 895 919 915 911 915
LevelFY17
2016-17FY18
2017-18FY19
2018-19FY20
2019-20FY21
2020-21Kindergarten 893 923 904 898 906
LevelFY17
2016-17FY18
2017-18FY19
2018-19FY20
2019-20FY21
2020-21Kindergarten 2 -4 11 13 9
*Note: All non-resident students have been added to NESDEC's projections.
Newton's Projections
NESDEC's Projections*
Difference
APPENDIX E
TABLE 11
Newton's Projections
NESDEC's Projections*
Difference
Kindergarten Only
- 108 -
Sch
ool:
Fee
ds In
to:
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Linc
oln-
Elio
tB
igel
ow34
034
034
835
935
235
4U
nder
woo
dB
igel
ow32
632
933
233
333
231
4W
ard
Big
elow
304
308
307
296
286
283
Bur
rD
ay41
240
440
240
538
738
0C
abot
Day
403
388
385
371
374
367
Fra
nklin
Day
424
448
449
453
455
442
Hor
ace
Man
nD
ay41
241
239
739
339
339
4P
eirc
eD
ay31
430
629
229
229
528
9
Ang
ier
Bro
wn
409
416
439
454
463
465
Cou
ntry
side
Bro
wn
450
431
426
417
423
415
Mas
on-R
ice
Bro
wn
9898
100
9996
9239
439
040
039
538
336
8W
illia
ms
Bro
wn
290
299
304
290
296
307
Bow
enO
ak H
ill44
943
643
343
139
639
4M
emor
ial-S
paul
ding
Oak
Hill
452
450
460
478
484
483
Zer
vas
Oak
Hill
308
332
370
393
418
443
To
tal E
lem
enta
ry3,
033
3,03
33,
012
3,00
12,
970
2,91
52,
752
2,75
42,
832
2,85
82,
863
2,87
5
Big
elow
Nor
th50
951
352
352
454
758
0D
ayN
orth
927
923
993
1,01
31,
024
1,01
8B
row
nN
orth
(13
%);
Sou
th (
87%
)10
110
399
9697
104
679
687
659
644
648
694
Oak
Hill
Sou
th60
261
258
357
858
560
3
To
tal M
idd
le S
cho
ol
1,53
71,
539
1,61
51,
633
1,66
81,
702
1,28
11,
299
1,24
21,
222
1,23
31,
297
New
ton
Nor
th2,
107
2,15
42,
165
2,16
62,
197
2,23
3N
ewto
n S
outh
1,79
81,
801
1,82
21,
875
1,91
91,
879
To
tal A
ll G
rad
e L
evel
s6,
677
6,72
66,
792
6,80
06,
835
6,85
05,
831
5,85
45,
896
5,95
56,
015
6,05
1C
hang
e fr
om P
rior
Yea
r49
668
3515
2342
5960
36%
Cha
nge
0.7%
1.0%
0.1%
0.5%
0.2%
0.4%
0.7%
1.0%
1.0%
0.6%
Dif
fere
nce
bet
wee
n N
ort
h a
nd
So
uth
309
353
343
291
278
354
New
ton
So
uth
Fee
din
g S
cho
ols
New
ton
No
rth
Fee
din
g S
cho
ols
AP
PE
ND
IX F
TA
BL
E 1
2
To
tal E
nro
llmen
t b
y H
igh
Sch
oo
l Fee
der
Pat
tern
s
- 109 -
Enrollment Scenarios are generated by using several different ratios of NPS Students to Type of Unit:
Resulting School Age
Children
Resulting School Age
Children
Resulting School Age
Children
Units % # # #
Studios 0% 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 01 BR Market 29 33% 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 01 BR Affordable 5 6% 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 02 BR Market 46 52% 0.192 9 0.193 9 0.258 122 BR Affordable 8 9% 0.914 7 0.922 7 1.219 103 BR Market 0 0% 0.740 0 0.731 0 0.929 03 BR Affordable 0 0% 2.579 0 2.548 0 3.250 0Total 88 16 16 22
Average of Ratios = 18
Enrollment Scenarios are generated by using several different ratios of NPS Students to Type of Unit:
Resulting School Age
Children
Resulting School Age
Children
Resulting School Age
Children
Units % # # #
Studios 0% 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 01 BR Market 3 3% 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 01 BR Affordable 1 1% 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 02 BR Market 23 26% 0.192 4 0.193 4 0.258 62 BR Affordable 6 7% 0.914 5 0.922 6 1.219 73 BR Market 2 2% 0.740 1 0.731 1 0.929 23 BR Affordable 1 1% 2.579 3 2.548 3 3.250 3Total 36 14 14 18
Average of Ratios = 15Notes:1) Ratios are based on 2013-14 enrollment as follows: Ratio 1 - Avalon Newton Highlands; Ratio 2 - Avalon at Chestnut Hill; Ratio 3 -
Arborpoint at Woodland Station; Ratio 4 - 264 to 290 Grove Street, 2 bedroom units only.
4) As per actual data, 60% of students are enrolled at the elementary grade level and 40% are enrolled at the secondary grade level.
Ratio 3
COURT STREETScenarios for Enrollment in Newton Public Schools
APPENDIX GTABLE 13
KESSLER WOODSScenarios for Enrollment in Newton Public Schools
Proposed Unit Types at Riverside
Ratio 1 Ratio 2
2) The numbers and types of units are as presented by BH Normandy Riverside LLC at the time of permit application in 2013.
3) All school children with physical addresses at the above developments are included in the ratio calculations. The assignment of schoolchildren to different unit types (e.g., 2BR or 3BR units) is based on industry estimates.
5) An average of 26% of school age children in 2014-15 residing at the two Avalon Complexes attend private school.
Proposed Unit Types at Riverside
Ratio 1 Ratio 2 Ratio 3
- 110 -
ANGIER
WARD
BURR
CABOT
PEIRCE
ZERVAS
MEMORIAL-SPAULDING
WILLIAMS
BOWEN
COUNTRYSIDE
FRANKLIN
UNDERWOOD
HORACE MANN
MASON-RICE
LINCOLN-ELIOT
BEACON ST
WA
LN
UT
ST
CENTRE ST
COMMONWEALTH AVE
BOYLSTON ST
CH
ES
TN
UT
ST
DEDHAM ST
GR
OV
E S
T
WA
SH
ING
TON
ST
WARD ST
PA
RK
ER
ST
WATERTOWN ST
AUBURN ST
LO
WE
LL
AV
E
DUD
LEY RD
WIN
CH
ES
TE
R S
T
MILL ST
HOMER ST
ELLIO
T ST
CABOT STAUSTIN ST
CH
ER
RY
ST
QUINOBEQUIN RD
HAMMOND ST
LAN
GLE
Y R
D
ADAMS ST
DERBY ST
WA
VE
RLE
Y A
VE
NAHANTON ST
CALIFORNIA ST
BROOKLINE ST
WOODWARD ST
PEARL ST
LEX
ING
TO
N S
T
NE
ED
HA
M S
T
NEWTONVILLE AVE
WA
LTH
AM
ST
GR
AN
T A
VE
SPIE
RS
RD
VINE ST
WIS
WAL
L R
D
CONCORD ST
ALB
EM
AR
LE R
D
NO
RTH
ST
NONANTUM RD
AUBURNDALE AVE
HAMM
ON
D PO
ND
PKWY
GREENW
OO
D ST
VALENTINE ST
KENRICK ST
OAK ST
TREMONT ST
LINCOLN ST
JAC
KS
ON
RD
SARGENT ST
RT 9 RAMPFLORENCE ST
CRAFTS ST
LAG
RANGE S
T
RIVER ST
SAW M
ILL
BROO
K PKW
Y
CO
LLEG
E R
D
CY
PR
ES
S S
T
LYMAN ST
ST
JAM
ES
ST
WA
LNU
T S
T
ANGIER
WARD
BURR
CABOT
PEIRCE
ZERVAS
MEMORIAL-SPAULDING
WILLIAMS
BOWEN
COUNTRYSIDE
FRANKLIN
UNDERWOOD
HORACE MANN
MASON-RICE
LINCOLN-ELIOT
BEACON ST
WA
LN
UT
ST
CENTRE ST
COMMONWEALTH AVE
BOYLSTON ST
CH
ES
TN
UT
ST
DEDHAM ST
GR
OV
E S
T
WA
SH
ING
TON
ST
WARD ST
PA
RK
ER
ST
WATERTOWN ST
AUBURN ST
LO
WE
LL
AV
E
DUD
LEY RD
WIN
CH
ES
TE
R S
T
MILL ST
HOMER ST
ELLIO
T ST
CABOT STAUSTIN ST
CH
ER
RY
ST
QUINOBEQUIN RD
HAMMOND ST
LAN
GLE
Y R
D
ADAMS ST
DERBY ST
WA
VE
RLE
Y A
VE
NAHANTON ST
CALIFORNIA ST
BROOKLINE ST
WOODWARD ST
PEARL ST
LEX
ING
TO
N S
T
NE
ED
HA
M S
T
NEWTONVILLE AVE
WA
LTH
AM
ST
GR
AN
T A
VE
SPIE
RS
RD
VINE ST
WIS
WAL
L R
D
CONCORD ST
ALB
EM
AR
LE R
D
NO
RTH
ST
NONANTUM RD
AUBURNDALE AVE
HAMM
ON
D PO
ND
PKWY
GREENW
OO
D ST
VALENTINE ST
KENRICK ST
OAK ST
TREMONT ST
LINCOLN ST
JAC
KS
ON
RD
SARGENT ST
RT 9 RAMPFLORENCE ST
CRAFTS ST
LAG
RANGE S
T
RIVER ST
SAW M
ILL
BROO
K PKW
Y
CO
LLEG
E R
D
CY
PR
ES
S S
T
LYMAN ST
ST
JAM
ES
ST
WA
LNU
T S
T
Elementary School Districts
0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 20.25 Miles
CITY OF NEWTON, MASSACHUSETTSMayor - Setti D. WarrenGIS Administrator - Douglas Greenfield
City of Newton, Massachusetts
Map Date: September 24, 2015
LegendElementary Schools
ANGIER
BOWEN
BURR
CABOT
COUNTRYSIDE
FRANKLIN
HORACE MANN
LINCOLN-ELIOT
MASON-RICE
MEMORIAL-SPAULDING
PEIRCE
UNDERWOOD
WARD
WILLIAMS
ZERVAS
Elementary School Buffer Zones
APPENDIX H - TABLE 14Current Elementary District Map (September 2015)
- 111 -
