Enhanced Wording within the ZFP and CWF Products as Generated by the GFE Text Formatter (Employing Tropical Cyclone Wind Probabilities) Pablo Santos and

Enhanced Wording withinthe ZFP and CWF Products

as Generated bythe GFE Text Formatter

(Employing Tropical Cyclone Wind Probabilities)

Pablo Santos and Guy Rader

WFO Miami, FL

David Sharp and Matthew Volkmer

WFO Melbourne, FL

TC Wind Speed Probabilities on AWIPS-D2D(Incremental-form)

Hurricane Charley 200434 knot / 36 hour

EXAMPLE

Probability ofTropical Storm Conditions



EXAMPLE




EXAMPLE


EXAMPLETC Wind Speed Probabilities on AWIPS-D2D

(Incremental-form)


Probability ofHurricane Conditions


(Incremental-form)




(Incremental-form)


For more information about tropical cyclone wind probabilities, please see:

• Knaff and DeMaria (2005)• Gross et al. (2004)


Proposed WFO Use • During potential high impact weather events such as

tropical cyclones, users want our ‘best forecast’, but also accompanied with an expression of uncertainty (or confidence) of that forecast.

• Therefore, we are exploring the use of TC Wind Probabilities to improve official text/tabular products:

– To include situational expressions of uncertainty within the Zone Forecast Product (ZFP) and the Coastal Waters Forecast (CWF).

– In the future, with success, then explore situational inclusion of tropical cyclone wind probability elements within the Point Forecast Matrices (PFM).

Improve ZFP & CWF Products• The intent is to establish a set of rules for triggering

enhanced wording which responsibly convey wind speed uncertainties within text forecasts according to the temporal period.

• This is accomplished through GFE automated formatters by making appropriate use of the following grids sets:– Hazard Grids– Wind Grids– Tropical Cyclone Wind 34 kt Probability Grids – Tropical Cyclone Wind 64 kt Probability Grids

• Initial development and testing was done off-line during the 2005 season; an aggressive examination is underway for the 2006 season.

Grid Set Descriptions• Hazard Grids include Hurricane/Tropical Storm

Warning/Watch grids as issued:– For coastal zones by TPC– For inland zones by WFO– For marine zones by WFO

• Wind Grids represent the post-processed wind grids as generated by the TCM Wind tool, with WFO value added contributions for local effects (e.g., higher altitude terrain, gap winds, over inland lakes, etc.).

• The Tropical Cyclone Wind Probability Grids (as obtained through TPC) are the incremental-based (not cumulative) probabilities for 34 knot and 64 knot winds.

• The incremental probabilities for 50 knot winds are not needed for this application.

Series of Situation Rules According to the Forecast Period

• Forecast Periods– 00-48 hours (~ Warning/Watch period)

• 00-12 hours• 13-24 hours• 25-48 hours

– 49-120 hours (extended period)• Deterministic vs. Probabilistic Information

– Deterministic wind speeds have the most value during the 00-24 hour period, and have decreasing value with increasing time.

– Probabilistic wind speeds have increasing value with increasing time.

Text Formatters: Logic Hierarchy for Sensitivity Priority Sensitivity Grid Sets

1. Official Warnings,

Official Watches

Hazard Grids

2. Official Forecast Wind Grids

3. Forecast Error 64-knot Probability Grids,

34-knot Probability Grids

Note: Forecast Error implies appreciation for the inherent uncertainties regarding the track, intensity, and size of the tropical cyclone.

Message Sensitivity

Text Formatters: Baseline Phraseology

HURRICANE CONDITIONS…

…IMMINENT.

…EXPECTED.

…POSSIBLE.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS…

…IMMINENT.

…EXPECTED.

…POSSIBLE.

Note:• The word IMMINENT may be used only within the 00-12 hour period and when conditions are simultaneously met within the hazard, wind, and probability grids. • The word EXPECTED may be used in situations mainly during the Warning period, but may be selectively used in the Watch period (e.g., Day 1 & 2).• The word POSSIBLE may be used during the extended period (e.g., Day 3 - 5), but may also be used in specific circumstances within Watch/Warning period. • Also, certain situations may require compound phrases (e.g., Tropical Storm Warning with a Hurricane Watch).

Baseline Phraseology

Text Formatters: Probability Thresholds (Initial) Probability Thresholds

Note: Initial thresholds were empirically-determined; future refinements are likely.

Phrase Period H-Prob TS-Prob

Imminent 00-12 hr 30% 80%

Expected 00-12 hr 15% 50%

13-24 hr 12% 45%

25-48 hr 10% 40%

Text Formatters: Probability Thresholds (Initial) Probability Thresholds

Note: Initial thresholds were empirically-determined; future refinements are likely.

Phrase Period H-Prob TS-Prob

Possible 00-12 hr 15% 50%

13-24 hr 12% 45%

25-48 hr 10% 40%

49-72 hr 8% 30%

73-96 hr 5% 20%

97-120 hr 3% 13%

For Example -

An incremental-form 64-knot tropical cyclone wind probability depiction associated with Hurricane Wilma (2005) is used here to trigger the phrase ‘HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE’ in a later period of the ZFP and CWF. Valid time is 96 hours on 24 October 2005, 0000 UTC (from a start time on 20 October 2005, 0000 UTC). Note that values shown only range from 0 to 5%.

96 hour forecast

For Example – ZFP Extended WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-MAINLAND MONROE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…NAPLES…IMMOKALEE…FLAMINGO 1130 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

.TONIGHT… .THURSDAY… .THURSDAY NIGHT… .FRIDAY… .FRIDAY NIGHT…BREEZY. .SATURDAY…WINDY. .SATURDAY NIGHT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. .SUNDAY…HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE..SUNDAY NIGHT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. .MONDAY…BREEZY.

Note: From the Hurricane Wilma (2005) test case, the experimental formatter output for the ZFP indicated POSSIBLE tropical cyclone conditions in the extended periods of the forecast. For brevity, only the descriptive wind elements are shown here.

Formatter Output

ZFP Examples

Charley Example of How Algorithm worksAdvisory Time: 20040813_0900 (0-12 Hours – First Period)


Charley Example of How Algorithm worksAdvisory Time: 20040813_0900 (13-24 Hours – Second Period)




Frances Example of How Algorithm worksAdvisory Time: 20040902_1500 (25-36 Hours – Third Period)

Frances Example of How Algorithm worksAdvisory Time: 20040902_1500 (37-48 Hours – Fourth Period and

Extended)


Extended)


Extended)


Extended)

Katrina Example of How Algorithm worksAdvisory Time: 20050824_2100 (Second – Fifth Periods)





Wilma Example of How Algorithm worksAdvisory Time: 20051023_2100 (First through Third Periods)






CWF Examples





Frances Example of How Algorithm worksAdvisory Time: 20040902_1500 (25-36 Hours – Third Period)


Extended)


Extended)


Extended)


Extended)


Extended)


Extended)


Extended)




WHY??? Because the TCV Hazards grid only extended out 36 hours from advisory time. So for purposes of the algorithm there was no TRW/HUA for Friday.


NOTE??? Here TRW/HUA would have made no difference. EXPECTED reserved for the first four periods only.






Important Considerations When Editing Hazard

Grids

Point About HeadlinesIn CWF for MIA/FLL Adjacent Marine Zone …HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT…

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…

Situation:

• Caveat: TPC’s TCV is only for coastal counties. Marine Zones are full responsibility of WFO.

•Rita: 20050920_0900 Advisory.

•HU.W South of Golden Beach.

•TR.W/HU.A North of Golden Beach

•Adjacent Map: Result of drawing Inland and Marine Hazards with Make_Hazard using Combination of Map Zone Selection and hand free Edit Areas.

•Requires Hand post editing of headlines to avoid confusion. Although for this particular case formatter pws phrase logic would work, the more complex and creative the forecaster gets, the better the chance the pws phrase logic will break down.

Point About Headlines

In CWF for MIA/FLL Adjacent Marine Zone …HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT…

Situation:

• Caveat: TPC’s TCV is only for coastal counties. Marine Zones are full responsibility of WFO.

•Rita: 20050920_0900 Advisory.

•HU.W South of Golden Beach.

•TR.W/HU.A North of Golden Beach

•Adjacent Map: Result of drawing Inland and Marine Hazards with Make_Hazard using Map Zone Selection ONLY.

• No Post Editing of headlines required.

•Perhaps best approach for simplicity. Formatter will most likely never give you trouble for pws phrase.

Details of Algorithm Program into the

Formatters (Optional)

Else If HU/I.W or HU/I.A or(HU/I.W && TI.W) or(HU/I.A && TI.A) or (HI.W && HU/TR.A) or(HU.A && HU.W && TR.W) or(HU.W && TR.W) or(HU.A && TR.A)

If W ≥ 64 HU Expected

Else If W ≥ 34

Else{Regular Phrasing} What if HU expected second forecast period and prob thresholds are not met first period or viceversa?

Else If TR/I.W or TR/I.A or (TI.W && TR.A) If W ≥ 34 TR Expected

Else

ELSE

Regular Phrasing…(Breezy, Windy, etc). Technically, we do not need to worry about the no watch/warning with winds above 34 knots in this period because to begin with, we are not allowed to depict them unless TCM driven and in this time range we WILL be dealing with some sort of watch/warning. This is also the situation where if the wind radii impact offshore waters, then WFO MUST make sure they place those zones in a watch or warning (not wait for TPC) for this algorithm to work properly. However, just in case, see next slide.

If PWS34 && PWS64 Present Else {Reg Phrasing}

0-12 Hours Decision Tree (Includes Wind Phrase Also)HU – Hurricane Conditions, TR – TS Conditions, W means MaxW in Forecast

Period/ZoneHU/I and TR/I mean HU or HI and TR or TI, respectively

{Regular Phrasing} What if TR expected second forecast period and prob thresholds are not met first period or viceversa?

See Next Slide

Else If pws64 ≥ 15 HU Possible

Else If pws64 ≥ 15 TR Possible

If (HU/I.A && TR/I.W) or(HU.A && TR.A && TR.W)

If W ≥ 34TR Expected with HU Also Possible

Else{Regular Phrasing} What if TR expected second forecast period and prob thresholds are not met first period or viceversa?

Else If pws64 ≥ 15 TR Possible with HU Also Possible Else If pws34 ≥ 50 or W ≥ 25 TR Possible

If pws34 ≥ 80 TR Imminent with HU Also Possible Else

If pws64 ≥ 30 HR Imminent Else

If pws34 ≥ 80 TR Imminent Else

TR Possible with HU Also Possible


If pws34 ≥ 80 TR Imminent with HU Also Possible

Else TR Expected with HU Also Possible

Else If pws34 ≥ 50 && W ≥ 25 TR Expected with HU Also Possible

Else If pws64 ≥ 15 && W ≥ 50 HU Expected

Else If pws34 ≥ 50 && W ≥ 25 TR Expected

Else If pws34 ≥ 50 && W ≥ 25 TR Expected with HU Also Possible Else If pws34 ≥ 50 or W ≥ 25

Else If pws34 ≥ 50 or W ≥ 25

If W ≥ 64 HU Possible

Else If W ≥ 34 TR Possible

Else {Regular Phrasing}

ELSE FROM PREVIOUS SLIDE

0-12 Hours Decision Tree (HU/HI or TR/TI grids not present)

HU – Hurricane Conditions, TR – TS Conditions, W means MaxW in Forecast Period/ZoneHU/I and TR/I mean HU or HI and TR or TI, respectively



NOTE: Preliminary thresholds for warning period:

0-24 hours…pws64=15, 30 to trigger use of imminent; pws34=50, 80 to trigger use of imminent

If W ≥ 64 or (pws64 ≥ 12 && W ≥ 50) HU Expected

Else{Regular Phrasing} What if HU expected third forecast period and prob thresholds are not met second period or viceversa?

TR Expected

Else

ELSE

Regular Phrasing…(Breezy, Windy, etc). Technically, we do not need to worry about the no watch/warning with winds above 34 knots in this period because to begin with, we are not allowed to depict them unless TCM driven and in this time range we WILL be dealing with some sort of watch/warning. This is also the situation where if the wind radii impact offshore waters, then WFO MUST make sure they place those zones in a watch or warning (not wait for TPC) for this algorithm to work properly. However, just in case, see next slide.




{Regular Phrasing} What if TR expected third forecast period and prob thresholds are not met second period or viceversa?

See Next Slide



If W ≥ 34 or (pws34 ≥ 45 && W ≥ 25) TR Expected with HU Also Possible

Else{Regular Phrasing} What if TR expected third forecast period and prob thresholds are not met second period or viceversa?

Else If pws64 ≥ 12 TR Possible with HU Also Possible TR Possible



TR Expected with HU Also Possible

Else If W ≥ 34 or (pws34 ≥ 45 && W ≥ 25)

If W ≥ 34 or (pws34 ≥ 45 && W ≥ 25)Else If TR/I.W or TR/I.A or (TI.W && TR.A)





Else If HU/I.W or HU/I.A or(HU/I.W && TI.W) or(HU/I.A && TI.A) or (HI.W && HU/TR.A) or(HU.A && HU.W && TR.W) or(HU.W && TR.W) or(HU.A && TR.A)

If W ≥ 64 HU Possible

Else If W ≥ 34 TR Possible


ELSE FROM PREVIOUS SLIDE

13-24 Hours Decision Tree (HU/HI or TR/TI grids not present)

HU – Hurricane Conditions, TR – TS Conditions, W means MaxW in Forecast Period/ZoneHU/I and TR/I mean HU or HI and TR or TI, respectively



NOTE: Preliminary thresholds for warning period:

0-24 hours…pws64=12, pws34=45

HU Expected


Else

TR Expected

Else







Else{Regular Phrasing} What if TR expected 4th forecast period and prob thresholds are not met 3th period or viceversa?

Else If pws64 ≥ 10 TR PossibleTR Possible with HU Also Possible



See Next Slide

{Regular Phrasing} What if HU expected 4th forecast period and prob thresholds are not met 3th period or viceversa?

{Regular Phrasing} What if TR expected 4th forecast period and prob thresholds are not met 3th period or viceversa?

If W ≥ 34 or (pws34 ≥ 40 && W ≥ 25)

If W ≥ 64 or (pws64 ≥ 10 && W ≥ 50)

Else If W ≥ 34 or (pws34 ≥ 40 && W ≥ 25)

If W ≥ 34 or (pws34 ≥ 40 && W ≥ 25)

Else If TR/I.W or (TI.W && TR.A)





Else If HU/I.W or (HU/I.W && TI.W) or(HI.W && HU/TR.A) or(HU.A && HU.W && TR.W) Or (HU.W && TR.W) or

If W ≥ 50 or pws64 ≥ 10 HU Possible

Else If W ≥ 25 or pws34 ≥ 40

Else

Else If TR/I.A If W ≥ 34 TR Possible

Else

ELSE

From Previous Slide



{Regular Phrasing} What if HU is forecast in the 4th period instead of the 3rd forecast period and prob thresholds are not met 3rd period or viceversa?

Else If pws64 ≥ 10

{Regular Phrasing} What if TR is forecast in the 4th period instead of the 3rd forecast period and prob thresholds are not met 3rd period or viceversa?

Use same algorithm as 49-120 (except for inclusion of wind phrase) to determine HU or TR Possible.

NOTE: Preliminary thresholds for watch period:

25-48 hours…pws64=10; pws34=40

TR Possible


If pws64 ≥ 10 TR Possible with HU Also Possible

Else


Else If HU/I.A or (HU/I.A && TI.A) or(HU.A && TR.A)


If pws64 ≥ XX HU Possible

Else If W ≥ 64 HU Possible

If PWS34 && PWS64 Present

49-120 Hours Decision Tree (No Wind Phrase)HU – Hurricane Conditions, TR – TS Conditions, W means MaxW in Forecast Period/Zone

Else If pws34 ≥ XX TR Possible

Else If W ≥ 34) TR Possible



NOTE: XX thresholds are a function of time; preliminary thresholds.

49-72 hours…pws64=8; pws34=30

73-96 hours…pws64=5; pws34=20

97-120 hours...pws64=3; pws34=13

Documents

Enhanced Wording within the ZFP and CWF Products as Generated by the GFE Text Formatter (Employing Tropical Cyclone Wind Probabilities) Pablo Santos and