Energy: Where On Earth Are We Going? Ernie McFarland June 1, 2007 Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Energy:Where On Earth Are We Going?

Ernie Ernie McFarlandMcFarland

June 1, 2007June 1, 2007

Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory

With thanks to:

Iain Campbell (University of Guelph)

Jim Hunt (University of Guelph)

Al Bartlett (University of Colorado)

Tom Kehn (University of Guelph)

Dugan O’Neil (Simon Fraser University)

OVERVIEW

● Present world energy consumption

● U.S. and world oil production

● Fossil fuels: Climate change & air pollution

● Energy efficiency

● Some new technologies

● Other energy sources

● Where on Earth are we going?

Primitive Humans:

2000-3000 Calories per day

or about 10 MJ/day

Photo Source: archaeologyinfo.com

Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2006; U.S. Census Bureau

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

WORLD

United Arab Emirates

Kuwait

Canada

USA

Australia

Netherlands

Sweden

Saudi Arabia

Russian Federation

France

Japan

Germany

Switzerland

United Kingdom

Spain

Denmark

Venezuela

Poland

Mexico

China

Brazil

India

Philippines

Megajoules per capita per day

Daily Energy ConsumptionPer Capita (2005)

Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2006; U.S. Census Bureau

% of World Energy Consumption and % of World Population 2005

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0

Korea

United Kingdom

France

Canada

Germany

India

Japan

Russian Federation

China

USA

% of World Population % of World Energy Consumption

Photo source: www.worldofstock.com

0

100

200

300

400

500

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Year

Exa

jou

les

per

yea

r

World EnergyConsumption

1860-2005

World Energy Consumption by Source 2005

Oil38%

Coal29%

Natural Gas25%

Nuclear2%

Hydro3%

Other3%

Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006, US Dept. of Energy, World Energy Council

OVERVIEW








U.S. Oil Production 1870-1955

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960

Year

Bill

ion

Bar

rels

/Yea

r .

M. King Hubbert(1903-1989)

Photo Source: www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/

0

1

0 120

peak in 1973U.S. Oil Production 1870-2005

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Year

Bill

ion

Bar

rels

/Yea

r .

U.S. Oil Production 1870-2005

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

Year

Bill

ion

Bar

rels

/Yea

r .

Data

Hubbert model (2005)

U.S. Oil Production & Consumption 1870-2005

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Year

Bill

ion

Bar

rels

/Yea

r .

Consumption

Production

Major oil exporters to US:Canada, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Nigeria, Iraq

World Oil Production 1900-2005

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Year

Bill

ion

Bar

rels

/Yea

r .

World Oil Production

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Year

Bil

lio

n b

arre

ls/y

ear

Data Hubbert3000 bill.brls.

ultimate

Hubbert3900 bill.brls.

ultimate

If world oil production is going

to peak soon,

what about using natural gas and coal?

OilReserv

es

OilResourc

es

Nat’l. Gas

Reserves

Nat’l. Gas

Resources

CoalReserve

s

CoalResourc

es

World 7500 12000* 6000 8000* 20000 150000*

Canada

1000 1200* 60 400* 140 2700*

U.S.A. 170 600* 180 700* 5000 36000*

* Highly uncertain

Fossil Fuel Reserves and Resources(exajoules)

Sources: World Energy Council, U.S. Energy Information Administration, BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2005, Canadian Assoc’n. of Petroleum Producers.

not including oil shales, gas hydrates, etc.

OVERVIEW








Greenhouse Effect

Source: NASA

Source: A. Neftel, H. Friedli, E. Moor, H. Lötscher, H. Oeschger, U. Siegenthaler, B. StaufferPhysics Institute, University of Bern, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerlandhttp://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/trends.htm

Year

377 ppmvin

2006

Gas GreenhouseContribution

(%)

Carbon dioxide

55

Methane 17

Ozone(tropospheric)

12

Chlorofluoro-carbons

11

Nitrous oxide 5Source: World Data Center for Atmospheric Trace Gases, U.S. Department of Energyhttp://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/pns/current_ghg.html

Source: Environment Canada

Canada's Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2003

-100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250

Forestry

Other

Commercial & Institutional

Residential

Agriculture

Industries & Mining

Oil & Nat'l. Gas Production

Electricity Generation

Transportation

Megatonnes CO2 equiv.

27%

19%

18%

17%

9%

6%

6%

4%

-6%

Source: Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, UKSourceSs

Source: Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, UK

0.0 corresponds to 1961-1990 avg.

Solid curve is moving 5-yr avg

Temp.(deg.C)

Climate Change

● increase in average temperature of approx. 0.2oC per decade for next two decades

● larger temperature increase in polar areas

● thawing of permafrost and ice

● rise in sea level (0.2 – 0.6 m) by 2090-2099

● shifting of ranges of forests, fisheries, & agriculture

more extreme weather (seen already):● increase in precipitation, especially heavy precipitation

● more droughts and flash floods in dry areas

● more extremely hot days, fewer extremely cold days

Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007, Working Group Reports

Chacaltaya

glacier,Bolivia

1994

2005

Photo Source:National GeographicJune 2007

29% since 1990

Fossil-fuel-burning produces climate change.

But it produces other

air-pollution problems too!

● More than 5800 people in Ontario die prematurely every year from air pollution.

● Combined healthcare and lost productivity costs are well over a billion dollars. ● Approx. 17,000 Ontarians are admitted to hospitals annually with health problems related to air pollution exposure.

Ontario Medical AssociationReport June 2005

What To DoAbout Climate Change

& Air Pollution??

● increase energy efficiency (conservation)

● explore new technologies (for coal-burning, for example)

● change to non-polluting energy sources

● prepare for warmer climate and wilder weather

The University of Nebraska’s energy extension servicereports the following energy-saving suggestions

proposed by elementary school children.

● Dip everything that is made in stuff that glows in the dark.

● Put more hot sauce in the food.

● Make it a rule that there has to be at least two people in every big bed that uses an electric blanket.

● Don’t stay in more than one room at a time.

Efficiency of energy conversions

100% In Energy

Out Energy Useful Efficiency

60-watt lightbulb

= heatbulb

Lighting Efficiencies

Tungsten incandescent 5%

Halogen bulb 7%

Light-emitting diode (LED) 10%

Fluorescent 20%

Globe & Mail, April 26, 2007

“Canada to ban traditional light bulbs”

If all the households in Canada replace

incandescent bulbs with fluorescent bulbs,

it would be “the same as taking more than

1 million cars off the road.”

What would be the actual reduction in CO2 emissions

annually in Canada, and how many cars would

have to be taken off the road to achieve the

same reduction?

1990 2004 Source: Natural Resources Canada

Canadian Residential Energy End-usePer Household

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

SpaceHeating

WaterHeating

MajorAppliances

SmallAppliances

Lighting SpaceCooling

Total

GJ

pe

r H

ou

se

ho

ld

Grand total residential Canadian energy use increasedfrom 1.29 EJ to 1.42 EJ from 1990 to 2004.

12,375,000 households in Canada

28% of electrical energyin Canada comesfrom conventionalthermal stations.(→ CO2)

Assume 5% loss in power lines.

Efficiency of Generating Electricity(major sources today)

Energy Source

Efficiency

Fossil Fuels 40%

Nuclear 30%

Hydro 95%

Photos: Ontario Power Generation

Disorder

and

Order

Fossil-Fuel Plant Efficiency = 40%

remaining 60% of the energy waste heat

→ Using incandescent bulbs for Canadian

residential lighting requires 1.6 million tonnes of

coal, which produce 5.7 million tonnes of CO2.

Using fluorescent bulbs gives a

reduction of 75%, i.e., a reduction

of 4.3 million tonnes of CO2.

Energy content of coal = 30 million J/kg

20000 km annually

10 L per 100 km

therefore 2000 L of gasoline

→ produces 4.5 tonnes of CO2

Annual CO2 emissions per car?

How many cars would have to be taken off

the road to achieve the same reduction in

CO2 emissions as by using fluorescent bulbs?

carper emitted CO annualbulbst fluorescen from reduction CO annual

2

2

tonnes/car 4.5tonnes million 4.3

cars million 0.96)!!cars! million 1 (approx.

Drive a smaller vehicle

Buy a hybrid car

Use public transit, bicycle, or walk

Drive more slowly

Increasing transportation-energy efficiency

Speed (km/h) Gas Consumption(L/100 km)

80 5.5

90 6.0

110 6.6

120 7.2

Data courtesy of Alan Hirsch

Guelph Tribune,May 19, 2006

Gasoline Prices May 1, 2006Country Price (Cdn $/L)

U.K. 1.99

France 1.92

Italy 1.89

Sweden 1.88

Korea 1.67

Switzerland 1.56

Hungary 1.50

Brazil 1.33

Japan 1.28

Cuba 1.11

Sri Lanka 1.11

South Africa 1.06

Canada 1.02

U.S.A. 0.84

China 0.67

Philippines 0.67


& Air Pollution??





Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle

Pressurized Fluidized Bed Combustion

“Clean” Coal

New ways to burn coal:

In one day, a large

coal-fired electric plant

uses enough coal to fill a

train 2.5 km (1.5 miles) long.

Photo source: National Geographic

Strip-mining inWest Virginia

Photo Source: National Geographic

Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle

Crushed coal mixedwith hot steam andair (or oxygen) CO and H2

(or CO2 and H2)

CO and H2

burned in gasturbine electricity

Exhaust gasesboil water forsteam turbine electricity

● Overall efficiency might be as high as 60%.

● S comes out as hydrogen sulfide- easily captured

● N exits as ammonia – easily captured

● If O2 used instead of air in the gasifier, the highly concentrated CO2 can be captured easily.

Integrated GasificationCombined Cycle

Carbon (dioxide) Capture & Storage (CCS)

Electric power plants● large centralized units● emit ~ 1/3 of CO2 worldwide

3 ways to capture CO2

● precombustion separation → CO2 and H2 (as in IGCC plants)

● flue-gas separation using a liquid solvent

● burn fuel in oxygen → mainly CO2 and H2O

Costs: 1-5 ¢ (US) per kW∙h 10-20% more energy used for CCS

-- store captured CO2 underground as liquid under pressure

CCS Storage Sites?

● depleted oil and gas

reservoirs

● abandoned coal mines

● deep saline formations

Potential Problems

● leaks (rapid and slow)

● possible increases in seismicity

2 CCS electrical plants announced: Scotland – completion 2009 California – completion 2011

Source: Natural Resources Defense Council


& Air Pollution??





SourceKilowatts/hectare

Solar at ground level 1800

All winds at surface 110

U.S. photosynthesis 1.0

U.S. hydroelectricity 0.4

U.S. geothermal 0.05

U.S. tides 0.05

U.S. consumption, 2004

3.5

Comparison of some possible U.S. Energy Sources

Adapted from J.M. Fowler, Energy and the Environment, Second Edition, Table 13-1,McGraw-Hill, 1984

Wind Energy

Total worldwide capacity = 59000 MW in 2005 up 24% from 2004

Leaders: Germany (18000 MW) Spain 10000 MW USA (9000 MW) India (4000 MW) Denmark (3000 MW)

Source: Cdn. Wind Energy Assoc’n.

Source: Cdn. Wind Energy Assoc’n.

2006 1460

Wind turbine power is proportional to:

(wind speed)3 × (rotor blade length)2

Advantages Disadvantages

no greenhouse gases, no air pollution

wind doesn’t blow all the time(capacity factor ≈ 20-25%)

renewable lots of turbines needed

Turbines look cool! Turbines look ugly!

Solar Power

Passive solar heating

Active solar heating:water and space

Source: U.S. Dept. of Energy

☼☼

Solar Electricity

Source: NREL

Source: U.S. Dept. of Energy

Concentrators

Photovoltaic

☼☼

World total photovoltaic power capacity = 5000 MW in 2005

New PV cells being developed using organiclong-chain plastic polymers

Photovoltaic (PV) cell efficiency = 10-15%(mass-produced)

Solar Energy


No greenhouse gases or air pollution

Variability of solar energy

Renewable Photovoltaic energy too expensive, but price dropping

Passive heating available to everyone

Economical for remote locations (far north, Africa) & for space

Nuclear Energy

436 nuclear power reactors worldwideTotal capacity 370,000 MW – generate 17% of world’s electricity

Source: International Atomic Energy Agency

Source: International Atomic Energy Agency

U-235 is only 0.7% of natural uranium, and only 4%of typical reactor fuel.

Some of the U-238 is converted to Pu-239 (fissile).

Nuclear Reactor “Generations”

Generation I Early prototypes

Generation II Present reactors (use only about 5%of total available energy in the U)

Generation III

Advanced reactors-- simple standardized designs-- 60-year lifetime-- passive safety features-- used in Japan since 1996

Generation IV

-- various designs in concept stage-- some starting to be built-- fast-neutron breeder reactors could eventually use 99% of the U-fuel and create shorter-lived waste (100s of yr).

Nuclear Energy


No greenhouse gases, no air pollution

Radioactive waste(long life, 10000 yr)

Small fuel volume,and small waste volume

Possible accidents

World avg. capacityfactor = 77%

Possible nuclearproliferation

Photo Source: NASA

Where on Earth are We Going?

From “Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage”Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2005

Create an energy-supplyand technology basket

with lots of different items.

No energy source is perfect.

Each country and area has a differentmix of possible resources and technologies.

Documents

Energy: Where On Earth Are We Going? Ernie McFarland June 1, 2007 Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory