Gas Weighted HDD Forecast Through Day 15

Gas Weighted HDD Forecast Through Day 15

Above 30Y Normal

Below 10Y Normal

Total HDD Δ 12hr

318.5

320.9

329.5

324.8

337.2

185.5

323.5

N/A N/A

369.7 N/A

377.0 N/A

Total HDD: All Models

1,816.4

10Y Normal

2,094.9

HDD loss

HDD gain

Δ Overnight

Sample

Energy Weather Morning Report

1-5 Day: 12/21-12/25 Forecast Risks + Discussion

6-10 Day: 12/26-12/30 Forecast Risks + Discussion

1.   Warm risks continue early in the period along the East Coast ahead of a strong Arctic Front.

2.   Anomalous cold dives into the Great Lakes and East day 3-5 in response to –EPO and –WPO.

3.   Expect a demand uptick late in the period as HDD trend above normal, centered in the Midwest and East.

1.   Strong cold risks arise this period as cross polar flow dumps into the central and eastern U.S.

2.   Expect HDD to remain above normal each day this period thanks to large aerial coverage of cold.

11-15 Day: 12/31-1/4 Forecast Risks + Discussion

1.   Cold risks will linger into 2018 thanks to cross polar flow dumping into the U.S.

2.   Above normal HDD look to continue with a focus Midwest and East.

3.   Pattern by day 15 does indicate the potential for some warmer risks to return week 2 of January.

Time

Period

GFS Ensemble Forecast (Δ day)

Euro EPS Forecast

(Δ day)

10Yr Normal GWHDD

Forecast

Change From

Yesterday

% of Normal GWHDD

Forecast Confidence

EIA Region of Highest Heating

Demand

Wk 1 HDD 128.8 (-0.9) 128.8 (-0.7) 164.9 129.0 -0.5 78.2% High Northeast

Wk 2 HDD 162.0 (-0.2) 163.2 (+0.7) 178.3 169.0 +6.5 94.8% Moderate Northeast

November HDD

-- -- 543 524 -10.0 96.5%

High

Mountain/East

Model of Choice: European EPS

Sample Energy Weather Morning Report

GFS HDD Trends Vs. Normal European HDD Trends Vs. Normal Below 30 Year Normal

Above 30 Year Normal

Total HDD: EPS+GFS

822.4 30Y Normal

697.0

Time Period

GFS Forecast

European Forecast

30Yr Normal GWHDD

Forecast

% of Normal GWHDD

Forecast Confidence

EIA Region of Highest Heating Demand

1-5 105.2 114.3 122.2 109.0 89.2% High Midwest

6-10 154.8 155.8 124.9 155.0 124.1% Moderate Midwest/East

11-14 162.2 130.1 101.3 152.0 150.0% Moderate Midwest/East

14 Day Total 422.2 400.2 348.5 416.0 119.4% Moderate Midwest/East

Sample Energy Weather Morning Report Notes

A negative –WPO in week 2 will aid in colder risks through the turn of the year. However, note the

signal for higher heights near Alaska dissipates in the 11-15 day, potentially telegraphing some mid-January

warmer risks. Stay tuned!

6-10 Day Upper Pattern

WPO Forecast

11-15 Day Upper Pattern