ENERGY SYSTEM OF THE FUTURE EVOLUTION OR REVOLUTION? · 2019-07-05 · NATURAL GAS DEMAND GROWING IN ALL SECTORS 12 Global natural gas demand Bcm/yr 2015 global natural gas demand

Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences- June 25th, 2019 1

ENERGY SYSTEM OF THE FUTURE

EVOLUTION OR REVOLUTION?MARIE-NOELLE SEMERIA, CTO

Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences

June 25th, 2019

FAST CHANGING WORLD : CLIMATE CHALLENGE

33 BT CO2 EMISSIONS 2018 HISTORIC PEAK!

2Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences- June 25th, 2019

FAST CHANGING WORLD :

ELECTRICITY FOR ALL CHALLENGESFAST CHANGING WORLD :

ELECTRICITY FOR ALL CHALLENGES

FAST CHANGING WORLD :

ELECTRICITY FOR ALL CHALLENGES


FAST CHANGING WORLD : ELECTRIFICATION CHALLENGE

2018 PEAK120.5 g/CO2/Km

202195 g/CO2/Km

202580.75 g/CO2/Km

203066.5g/CO2/Km

EUROPEAN

REGULATION


FAST CHANGING WORLD : ACCEPTABILITY CHALLENGE


FAST CHANGING WORLD : THE DIGITAL PEDAGOGY CHALLENGE

6

“The algorithm thinking that can

digitize everything allows us to

grasp the individual in its plurality.

The present sciences are knowledge

of singularities”

Michel Serres

Philosopher and

historian of sciences.

“The more information we receive,

the more we are led to relate things

that are not related to each other.

Our universe is disparate, thinking is

connecting the disparate”

Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences- June 25th, 2019

7

BECOMING THE RESPONSIBLE ENERGY MAJOR

We are a major energy player committed to supplying

affordable energy to a growing population, addressing

climate change and meeting new customer expectations.

We are committed to better energy that is safer,

more affordable, cleaner, and accessible to as many

people as possible.

Innovation lies at the heart

of our commitment to better energy.

Patrick Pouyanné

Chairman, CEO TOTAL


8

Primary energy demand and CO2 emissions


ENERGY OUTLOOK 2040

9

Two scenarios: Momentum and Rupture

Rupture

Anticipating technological breakthroughs

and strong shift in public policies

• Mass electricity storage and switch to

renewable power generation

• EV 60% of total LV fleet by 2040

• Faster electrification in all sectors

• Steeper decrease of energy intensity,

ending with same energy demand level

in 2040 as in 2015

Energy demand based on

• Announced policies and regulations

• EV: 50% of sales, 32% of total fleet by

2040

• Adopting state of the art technologies

• Energy intensity falls by 2.2 % pa

Momentum


A RUPTURE REQUIRED FOR A 2°C PATHWAY

10

15

45

2015 2040

200

400

CO2 emissions

GtCO2/yr

Global primary energy demand

Mboe/d

Renewables

Nuclear

Natural Gas

Oil

Coal

Momentum

2015 2040Rupture

2040Momentum

Rupture

IEA CPS IEA NPS IEA SDS

Key drivers

GDP: + 3.3 % p.a.

Population: ~9 Bn in 2040

Access to energy: ~1 Bn people without access to electricity in 2018


OIL DEMAND DOMINATED BY TRANSPORT AND

PETROCHEMICALS

11

Emerging markets underpinning rising demand

29%

15%

6%5%

12%

6%

8%

7%

12%

80

100

2015 2040

Global oil demand

Mb/d

2015 global oil* demand

%, Mb/d

Petrochemicals

IndustryLight dutyvehicles

Heavy duty vehicles

AviationMarine

Other

Transport

Res & Com**

92.5 Mb/d

Power generation

Road

MarineAviation

Petchems Powergen

Industry &

Other

Res & Com

* Hydrocarbon liquids, including NGLs, excluding biofuels

** Residential & Commercial Sector

55% of oil demand in transportMain growth in transportation

and petrochemicals


NATURAL GAS DEMAND GROWING IN ALL SECTORS

12

Global natural gas demand

Bcm/yr

2015 global natural gas demand

%, Bcm/yr

3,400 Bcm/yr

Power generation and industry pulling-up global natural gas demand

13%

41%24%

21%

Power & Heat

generation

Other*

Transport

Industry

Residential

& Commercial

* Including autoconsumption

6 000

2015 2040

+1.8%per year

Power gen

Industry

TransportRes

& Com

Other

All sectors growing, dominated

by power generation and industry


20 000

45 000

2015 2040

19%

35%

44%

POWER DEMAND GROWING IN ALL SECTORS

13

Global power demand

TWh/yr

2015 global power demand

%, TWh/yr

24,200 TWh/yr

Growing twice as fast as global energy demand

Other*

Transport

Industry

Residential

& Commercial

* Including losses

+2.2%per year

Res & Com

Industry

Transport

Other

All sectors growing, dominated

by residential & commercial and industry


11%

16%

4%

2%

39%

4%

23%

20 000

45 000

2015 2040

POWER GENERATION: MORE LOW CARBON ELECTRICITY

14

Global power generation

TWh/yr

2015 global power generation

%, TWh/yr

24,200 TWh/yr

Hydrocarbon share of generation falls to half in 2040

NuclearOther

Bio

Oil

* Including losses

+2.2%per year

Wind & Solar

Other Renewables

Nat Gas

Other fossil fuels

NuclearHydro

Solar

Wind

Coal

Gas

Renewables and natural gas dominating growth

Decrease of carbon intensity by one third


WORLD EMISSIONS: TOWARDS LESS COAL

15

GLOBAL GHG EMISSIONS

Source: adapted from the IEA report CO2 Emissions

from Fuel Combustion, 2016 edition. Spread of

emission sources (%) based on 2010 IPCC report.

OIL AND GAS

37%

of GHG emissions

EMISSIONS FROM OIL AND GAS

~ 10%

generated during production and refining

~ 90%

associated with the use (combustion) of

products

Emissions

kgCO2/kg

Gas CH4 + O2 => CO2 + 2 H2O

16 g 44 g 2.8

Oil (CH2)n + O2 => nCO2 + 2n H2O +…

14 g 44 g 3.1

54 Gt

CO2e


16

Preparing for future growth


OUR AMBITION: STRATEGY CONTRIBUTING TO

TACKLE CLIMATE CHANGE

17

Responsible contribution : reducing carbon intensity of our energy sales

• Further improving

our operations efficiency

• Growing in natural gas

• Developing low carbon

electricity

• Increasing storage

• Investing in carbon sinks

(CCUS & forests) post-2030

50

100

2015 2040

IEA NPS

IEA SDS

2030

Possible Sales Mix 2040Natural gas : 45-55%

Oil (incl.biofuels): 30 -40%

Low carbon electricity: 15-20%

-15%

2015-30

NPS: New Policy scenario ~2.7°C by 2100

SDS: Sustainable Development scenario ~2°C by 2100


18

PRIORITY 1: ENERGY EFFICIENCY OF INDUSTRIALS

OPERATIONS

• Invest in electrification

• Develop artificial intelligence

• Switch to low carbon energies

• Promote carbon price


19

PRIORITY 2: INTEGRATION ALONG GAS VALUE CHAINReporting Integrated Gas Renewable & Power segment from 2019

~6 M customers20 Mt/y LNG 40 Mt/y portfolio 20 Mt/y capacity

Production &

Liquefaction

Trading &

ShippingRegasification

Gas & Power

Marketing

Note: 2020 forecast

#2 Global LNG player #1 European player > 10% market share

France + Belgium

Ichthys & Yamal

ramping up


PRIORITY 3: SUSTAINABLE LOW CARBON ELECTRICITY

BUSINESS

20

Integrated approach: production, trading and marketing

Supply

& Trading

Europe

~3 GW* by 2020

Gas to electricity

Worldwide

~7 GW by 2022

Renewables

to electricity

4 M customers in Europe

in 2018 targeting

7 M by 2022

Marketing

* Including 2 planned CCGT acquisitions from EPH, 1 in development

** Source Wood Mackenzie

• Solar, wind, hydro

• Grid stability

• Energy management system

Storage is key


21

PRIORITY 4: STORAGE

Some other R&D Partners of Saft

Saft IRIS TEAM;

R&T & Incubators

Program and its Projects

(Idoles, H2020)²

CEA (Grenoble, Bordeaux)

20 FTE working in Idoles

& Solide

Montreal University (Pr Dolle)

TOTAL Prospective Lab;

Materials for Energy

European Partners of the ALLIANCE

Universities & Labs :

IPREM, ICMCB, UMD, LEPMI, Crismat, UMD (USA), PSI (CH),CIC Energigune (S), Fraunhofer (D), …


22

PRIORITY 5: CARBON SINK BUSINESSES

Carbon sinks mandatory to reach zero net emissions by second half

of the century

Natural sinks

• Investing in preservation of forests, mangrove

and degraded lands

• Creating a dedicated business unit with

agro-environmental experts and 100 M$/y

investments budget from 2020

CCUS: looking for profitable business models

• 10% of R&D program

• Successful pilot in Lacq

• Projects in Norway (Northern Lights) and

UK (Clean Gas Project)

Photo foret


Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences- June 25th, 2019 23

Our R&D Challenges

3 MOVES

24

Develop competences and acquire the right skills

Modeling

Data Science,

Artificial

Intelligence

Energy

Management

Novel Services

New Energy Mix Gas,

Energy Efficiency,

Renewable Energies,

Energy Storage,

CO2 Capture, Storage

and Conversion

Circular economy

New Mobility

New Materials

Nanotechnologies

etc.

Digitalization Climate New Frontiers


TECH COMPANIES HYBRIDATION WITH INDUSTRY –

THE ALPHABET EXAMPLE

25

The 4.0 revolution, is driven by the native development of cyberphysical systems with

extensive use of sensors, data, automation, computing and AI

Tech companies have this in their DNA with all their systems designed for the billion customers

scale

Industrial companies bring domain knowledge, expertise, use cases that will bring value to

their company

Partnerships required to make the 4.0 revolution happen in the real world

Autonomous car

and mobility

Retail

Finance

Healthcare

Energy

Sanofi-Google JV for

personalized diabetes treatment

GAIA: Use AI to increase

geoscientists productivity and

focus on high added value tasks

New and innovative consumer

experience through technology

and AI


26

CARBON CAPTURE

OGCI

Northern Lights in Norway• First integrated industrial-scale project

• FID 2020/21- start up 2023/24

Chemical looping combustion• Financial support from China & EU

• 3 MW demonstration unit planned

Research with Stanford & Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory• Enable CO2 storage at gigaton scale

• 20 M$ over 5 years

Chaire with IFP• Direct Air capture

Targeting 10% of R&D budget on CCUS

Accelerate deployment of CCUS technologies through open innovation

EGE EnergyRecycling Plant, Oslo

NorcemCement Factory

With the financial support of

CO2 Offshore

storage

CO2 transportation

by ship

NORTHERN LIGHTS PROJECT

1.5 Mt Co2 / Y


27

OIL AND GAS CLIMATE INITIATIVE (OGCI)

• OGCI is a voluntary, CEO-led Oil and Gas industry initiative launched in

2015 which aims to catalyze meaningful actions on climate change

through collaboration and engagement

• 13 member companies, IOCs and NOCs, representing around 30% of the

world’s O&G production (~42 Mboe/d)

• Members companies share a will to collaborate, a support to the

Paris agreement, and a commitment to work (direct engagement from the

CEOs to drive the initiative, active participation in OGCI program)

• Main workstreams : CCUS, methan emissions, life cycle assessment,

low emission program, transportation


28

MOBILITY

MOBILITY

& TRANSPORTATION

MOBILITY

& INFRASTRUCTURE

Lightweight structure,

eco-design

Energy Management(Full battery pack demo)

Health & Well being

in interiors

Seamless connectivity

services

Robotic energy charging

& maintenance platform

Energy stationary

storage

Smart charging testbed

oriented EV users(Berkeley)

Energy distribution

& fleet mobility

simulation

Mobility Hub for eV fleet

& Autonomous Vehicle


29

GAS, RENEWABLES & POWER IN AFRICA

Access to LNG

Studying FSRU projects, in

Ivory Coast and Benin.

Developing power plants and

decentralized photovoltaic

systems, through Total Solar

and Total Eren

Access to Energy program

3 million lamps sold reaching

13.5 million people


“MICROGRID” SMART GAS STATION @LAGOS (NIGERIA)

30

• “Lekki 2” gas station, equipped with PV panels (27.4kWp, Lead-Acid batteries, diesel generator, and an Energy Management System provided by Total R&D

• Resilient to daily grid outages

• The need of diesel generator for power supply continuity almost disappeared since the hybrid installation was complete

• System operational since September 2018


Shutterstock | Droits acquittés par la R&D

Groupe

5 R&D FOCUS

31

DIGITAL

OPERATIONAL

EFFICIENCY

NEW SERVICES

& PRODUCTS

LOW

CARBON MIX

31,1%

36,2%7,1%

22,4%

3,2%

$1.1B*

*Total in 2018 including Hutchinson - & TEV without Focus areas distribution


32

THE UNITED NATIONS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS

• To eradicate poverty,

protect the planet and

ensure that all people

enjoy peace and

prosperity.

• Adopted by the United

Nations member states

in 2015, these goals are

a call for action by

countries, businesses

and civil society to

achieve a universal

ambition by 2030.

17 GOALS


Documents

ENERGY SYSTEM OF THE FUTURE EVOLUTION OR REVOLUTION? · 2019-07-05 · NATURAL GAS DEMAND GROWING IN ALL SECTORS 12 Global natural gas demand Bcm/yr 2015 global natural gas demand