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Energy: Supply and demand. Dr. Ron Lembke. Hot, Flat, and Crowded. Hot: Climate Change Flat: Technology and Bandwidth Crowded: More people, who want to live like us. The demand for energy. International Energy Outlook, 2011, US Energy Information Admistration , eia.gov. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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ENERGY: SUPPLY AND DEMANDDr. Ron Lembke
Hot, Flat, and Crowded
Hot: Climate Change Flat: Technology and
Bandwidth Crowded: More people,
who want to live like us
THE DEMAND FOR ENERGY
International Energy Outlook, 2011, US Energy Information Admistration, eia.gov
EIA Demand Scenarios
http://www.eia.gov/conf_pdfs/Monday/Sweetnam_eia.pdf
THE SUPPLY OF ENERGY
Hubbert’s Peak
• M. King Hubbert, “Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels” (Drilling and Production Practices, American Petroleum Institute, Washington, DC, 1956),
Causality or Correlation?
Where does our oil come from?
US Oil Imports, US EIA
Canada; 24.2%
Mexico; 12.2%
Saudi Arabia; 10.5%
Venezuela; 9.5%
Nigeria; 9.8%
Algeria; 4.9%
Russia; 6.0%
Colombia; 3.6%
Iraq; 4.0%
Angola; 3.8%
Virgin Is-lands; 2.5%
Brazil; 2.6% Ecuador; 1.9% UK; 2.5% Kuwait; 2.0%
When is the Peak? 2004 data
Different Scenarios
http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=38&t=6
The Price of energy
Gas Prices 1990-2012
1990
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1998
1999
2000
2001
2003
2004
2005
2006
2008
2009
2010
2011
00.5
11.5
22.5
33.5
44.5
Data: http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_gnd_dcus_nus_w.htm
Price of Liquids
Liquid Price ounces $/gallon $/cupWine $20 25.4 100.79$ 6.3 Coffee $1.90 12 20.27$ 1.3 Coors Light $0.75 12 8.00$ 0.5 Big Gulp $1.75 32 7.00$ 0.4 milk $3.50 128 3.50$ 0.2 Gasoline $4.50 128 4.50$ 0.3 Light Sweet Crude $100 5,376 2.38$ 0.1
EIA Predicted Price of Crude Oil, 2011
Death Valley, April 2012
NV Electricity Prices
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1989-2009 pricesLR on 20yrs DataLR on 10yrs Data
Cent
s / k
wh
R2 = 0.907R2 = 0.938
Elect. Price Data: EIA, 20y Rsq=0.91, 10y Rsq=0.94
Where Does it Come From?
Proven Oil Reserves, CIA Factbook
Saud
i Ara
bia
Cana
da Iran
Iraq
Kuwa
itUn
ited
Ara.
..Ve
nezu
ela
Russ
iaLi
bya
Nige
riaKa
zakh
stan
Qata
rCh
ina
Unite
d St
...
0
50,000,000,000
100,000,000,000
150,000,000,000
200,000,000,000
250,000,000,000
300,000,000,000
US Coal Reserves
http://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=coal_reserves
http://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=coal_reserves
Pinion Pine Power Plant DOE Clean Coal
Air-blown Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle
$335.9m, half DOE, half SPP New gasification method New desulfurization method
Carbon Capture & Sequestration Porous rock formations Small scale tests Expensive – lose 30% of electricity
gained So make more electricity – It’s CARBON
FREE! There are other pollutants
What if it gets out? Natural gas stays safely underground
Solar Resources
Geothermal Resources
Wind Resources
Renewables’ Share growing
US Energy Sources
What we use it for
Summary Demand for energy is going to increase
significantly Growing populations Rising standards of living
Supply of energy not increasing as fast Global oil supplies are finite Peak oil is likely coming in next 40 years Alternative energy sources
