ERG/200804

Energy sources for a secure (?) and clean (?) energy future

Larry HughesEnergy Research Group

Electrical and Computer EngineeringDalhousie University

Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canadalarry.hughes@dal.ca

Presented to Atlantic Canada Association for Science Educators

Saint Mary’s University, Halifax

10 July 2008

“To take concrete measures to save energy is not a matter of choice but a matter of survival.”

South Korean Prime Minister Han Seung-soo, 6 July 2008

Energy sources for asecure (?) and clean (?) energy future

Larry Hughes, PhDEnergy Research Group

Department of Electrical and Computer EngineeringDalhousie University

http://lh.ece.dal.ca/enen

Why all the fuss over oil?

Oil34.3%

Coal25.1%

Naturalgas

20.9%

Biomass10.6%

Nuclear6.5%

Hydro2.2%

Other0.4%

• Energy:– Over 98% of motorized

transportation– Space and water heating– Lighting and cooking– Electrical generation

• Non-energy:– Pesticides– Plastics – Cosmetics– Asphalt

Source: IEA, Key World Energy Statistics, 2006

Oil production vs. consumption

25.0

25.5

26.0

26.5

27.0

27.5

28.0

28.5

29.0

29.5

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Bill

ion

(1

09)

bar

rels

Production

Consumption

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2008

World oil consumption: 1998-2007

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Bill

ion

(1

09)

bar

rels

World (14.6%)

OECD (9.2%)

EMEs (36.2%)

US (9.2%)

China (86.7%)

ME (39.6%)

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2008

World oil consumption: 2005-2030

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Bill

io(1

09)

bar

rels

World

Non-OECD

OECD

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2008

Where will the oil come from?

• By 2015 the world will need another four billion barrels/year

• How?

– Saudi Arabia produces 3.5 billion barrels/year

– World production is declining at 5.2 percent/year (1.5 billion barrels)

– Many producing countries in decline (UK, Mexico)

– Non-conventional fuels (biofuels, tar sands, offshore, deep water) are expensive and cannot make up the shortfall

Other issues

• Changes in the oil market:– Heavy-sour crude replacing light-sweet crude

– Exploration and development costs soaring

– Weakness of US dollar

– Tensions in Iraq, Iran, Nigeria, Mexico, Venezuela

• Growth in “resource nationalism”:– Russia/Gazprom vs. Shell and BP (TNK-BP)

– Venezuela vs. ExxonMobil, Chevron, Conoco-Philips

• State of reserves are unknown

International Energy Agency’s Medium Term Oil Report

• July 2007:– “Supply crunch” starting in 2009:

• OECD production begins to tighten and fall

• OPEC spare capacity shortfall

– OPEC and Russia expected to pick up the slack

• July 2008:– OPEC spare capacity will drop to negligible levels

over the next five years– Non-OPEC supply growth will peak– World economic downturn will soften blow until

2011

Natural gas and coal prices are rising too…

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

Jan

-99

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Co

al U

S$/M

illio

n B

TU (

Re

d)

Nat

ura

l gas

US$

/10

00

ft3

(Blu

e)

Source: EIA

The rising cost of home heating fuel

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$1.40

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$140.00Ja

n-9

9

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Jan

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Jan

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Jan

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-08

He

atin

g fu

el:

C$

/lit

re (

red

)

WTI

: US$

/bar

rel (

Blu

e)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Pe

rce

nta

ge o

f in

com

eImpact of rising home heating fuel costs

Sources: CANSIM Upper Income Limits, V25731965; www.fuelfocus.nrcan.gc.ca

Q5

Q4

Q3

Q2

Q1 average

Energy security

• What:– The availability of a regular (i.e., uninterrupted)

supply of energy at an affordable price.

• Why:– Economic growth– Poverty reduction– Political stability

• Requires:– Supply – Infrastructure

Sources: IEA, 2001; “Energy Security Issues”, World Bank, 2005

Approaches to energy security

• USA: – Military, trade, national production, biofuels

• Europe: – Russia, nuclear, biofuels

• China: – Long-term trade deals, takeovers

• Canada: – Not to worry, “bastion of energy security”

Nova Scotia: Energy security and emissions

Oil178PJ Domestic coal

10PJ

Imported coal69PJ

Natural gas 5PJ

Hydro3PJ

Renewables17PJ

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.000 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.200 0.250 0.300

CO

2e

inte

nsi

ty (

kg/G

J)

Energy security index

Offshore Nova Scotia

0.000

0.100

0.200

0.300

0.400

0.500

0.600

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Pro

du

ctio

n (

BC

F/d

ay) Sable (Actual)

Sable (NEB)

Deep Panuke (NEB)

Can Nova Scotia rely on Canada?

• No significant energy corridors:– 300 MWel connection to New Brunswick

– Natural gas pipeline to New England

• NAFTA proportionality clause (Chapters 6 and 21) restrict reduction of energy exports

• Lower Churchill (2,300 MW):– Earliest completion date: 2015

– Competition for energy from other jurisdictions

The four ‘R’s of energy security

• Review:– Energy existing supplies and infrastructure– End-use energy requirements

• Reduce:– Reduce demand– Conservation and efficiency measures

• Replace:– Replace insecure energy sources with secure ones:

• Diversify suppliers• Alternative energy sources

• Restrict:– New demand should be met from secure sources

Review: It’s the end-use, stupid!

By final demand (PJ) By end-use

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Transport Residential Industrial CommercialInstitutional

Public admin

Agriculture

Coal

NGL

Natural gas

RPP

Electricity

Renewables

Transport67.5 PJ

Space heating41.1 PJ

Industrial34.6 PJ

Other31.1 PJ

Water heating10.2 PJ

Source: CANSIM, Table 128-0009

Reduction: Heating

• New buildings:– 50 percent reduction vs.

existing buildings

– Building techniques and materials

– 5.2 PJ reduction

• Existing buildings:– One percent reduction per

year

– Conservation and retrofits

– 7.9 PJ reduction

• Ideally: 13 PJ reduction0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Spac

e a

nd

wat

er

he

atin

g d

em

and

(PJ

)

Source: Canada’s Energy Outlook 2006-2020, NRCan

Replacement: Heating

• Reduction (13 PJ)• Solar (new buildings):

– 75% demand from solar – 3.9 PJ

• Solar (existing buildings):– 15% demand from solar– 7.5 PJ

• Wind heating:– 30% demand from wind– 15 PJ (1,900 turbines)

• District heating:– 1.5% demand from district heating– 0.7 PJ

• Biomass:– 20% from biomass– 10.2 PJ (700,000 tonnes)

• 12.5 PJ shortfall0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Spac

e a

nd

wat

er

he

atin

g d

em

and

(PJ

)

Source: Canada’s Energy Outlook 2006-2020, NRCan

Reduction: Transportation

• 90km/h limit:– 7% demand reduction– 5 PJ

• Tune-up:– 10% demand reduction– 7.2 PJ

• Fuel economy– 0.5% reduction per year– 4.6 PJ

• 1% modal shift:– 0.5 PJ

• 5% modal shift:– 2.3 PJ

• 52 PJ shortfall0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Ro

ad t

ran

spo

rt d

em

and

(PJ

)

Source: Canada’s Energy Outlook 2006-2020, NRCan

Replacement: Transportation

Fuel source Yield Requirements Comments

E5 (5% ethanol)Corn: 400 litres/t

5t/ha 42,900 ha 10.5% Nova Scotia’s farmland

10t/ha 21,467 ha 5.3% Nova Scotia’s farmland

E85(85% ethanol)

5t/ha 729,930 ha 179% Nova Scotia’s farmland

10t/ha 365,965 ha 89% Nova Scotia’s farmland

Coal-to-liquids(Fischer-Tropsch)

500 litres/t 2.5 Mt coal/yr 5.5 Mt coal/yr (2.5 Mt transport + 3 Mt electricity) or 40 years supply

Forest biomass(Fischer-Tropsch)

210 litres/t 5.8Mt biomass 145% of Nova Scotia’s forest yield (about 4 Mt/yr)

• Nova Scotia’s road transport demand: 1.228 billion litres of gasoline

Source: Energy Security and Nova Scotia, CCPA, Hughes

Short-term issues will dictate policies

Energy costs are rising…

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Jan

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Hea

tin

g Fu

el C

$/l

itre

(re

d)

WTI

: US$

/bar

rel (

Blu

e)

What can be done…

• Lower building temperatures?

• Switch to:– Natural gas?

– Biomass?

– Electricity?

• Subsidies?

• Requisition fuel?

• Rationing?

• Heat shelters?

Nova Scotia’s dilemma

• Supply:– Overwhelming reliance on imported energy– Ill-prepared for rising energy costs– Limited domestic energy supplies

• Infrastructure:– Rising costs will limit actions– Other jurisdictions are facing similar problems

• Short-term issues will dominate:– Food and fuel costs will hurt many Nova Scotians– Energy security will trump emissions reduction– A cold and hungry voter is an unhappy voter

Energy sources for asecure (?) and clean (?) energy future

Larry Hughes, PhDEnergy Research Group

Department of Electrical and Computer EngineeringDalhousie University

http://lh.ece.dal.ca/enen