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QUESTION:

Energy short falls in Pakistan and its impacts on industrial input and employment?

Energy short fall and its impact on industrial input and employmentThe economic engine, industry agriculture and all the lifelines of nation depends upon energy.Pakistan has been facing energy shortfall from the past many years. On the social aspect, energyconsumption per capita is a key indicator of the quality of life of the citizens and community.Unfortunately in Pakistan, inspire of tall claims and motivation by all governments, realsolutions to meet the energy requirements of the nation have never been formulated or achieved.As consequences , Pakistans economic, industrial and social growth has been greatlyconstrained. Due to an increasing gap in energy demand versus capacity, while successivegovernments put power generation and availability of gas as a priority on their agenda,unfortunately, all plans of providing adequate and affordable energy to the citizens have failed tomaterialize.

The inability to implement energy projects has been attributed to fiscal constraints, but in realityit is due to paucity of a vision, absence of robust planning and of a commitment to nationaldevelopment. Further there continues to be a basic lack of understanding of the dynamics of theenergy sector and market forces. The disastrous results are for all to see, while those in thecorridors of power and authority in various ministries, and heads of public sector utilities havemoved on, without any remorse or sense of responsibility or accountability.

On the current energy crisis, much has been claimed by the past and present governments,discussed and debated in recent months, and numerous articles have appeared in the press andvarious magazines. The majority of articles have been written by amateurs, or those who clearly

do not have an adequate understanding of the energy sector, and the related issues. There is noclear concept of viable solutions or the finances required and time lines for projectimplementation. Large numbers of users have to be disconnected from the energy supply systemto prevent overloading the generating stations (load shedding). On occasions the urban dwellershad to suffer load shedding of 8-10 hours every day. During the same time rural consumerssuffered it for up to 20 hours at a stretch.

Failure of Government:

Almost two years ago the Chairman Water and Power Authority (WAPDA) admitted that hisorganization could not meet the current demand for electricity. It is surprising such a senior

person took so long to discover this problem. The government talked about Pakistanssupposedly booming economy but failed to understand the need for meeting the energy needs of the boom. General Musharraf (R) (ex-President) after becoming Chief Executive used to talk about building dams especially Kalabagh Dam very few power plants have been set up sincethen. The present energy crisis is totally due to

Lack of forecasting and plannings: A general block diagram of power system

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Any power system has 3 major parts:1. Generation system2. Transmission system3. Distribution systemGenerally speaking the major technical causes of the shortfall in the availability of

Electrical energy in Pakistan is:1. Insufficient installed generating capacity.2. Transmission system unable to transmit the greater load now imposed upon it.3. Grid Stations and related equipment unable to carry the load imposed.4. Distribution System was built to carry a smaller power and hence unable to cater toExisting demands [Gelling at el 1988].

Impact of energy shortfall in industrial input and employment:

1.Industrial input

Industry is facing great decline in its growth rate. The major reasons for this decline can be theglobal recession, internal security concerns, the high cost of production due to increase in theenergy costs etc. Depreciation of Pakistani rupee that significantly raised the cost of importedinputs, rise in inflation rate, and high cost of financing has also effected seriously the growth inthe industry. As a result neither the buyers are able to visit frequently Pakistan nor are theexporters able to travel abroad for effectively marketing their products. With an in-depthinvestigation it was found that the Pakistans t extile industry can once again be brought back onwinning track if government takes serious actions in removing or normalizing the abovementioned hurdles. Purchasing new machinery or enhancing the quality of the existingmachinery and introducing new technology can also be very useful in increasing the research

&development (R & D) related activities that in the modern era are very important forincreasing the industrial growth of a country.

2.Employment

Unemployment is one of the biggest problems of Pakistan. That person is unemployed who hasability to do work and is willing to do work but is unable to get job opportunity. In the currentsituation more than 30 lakh people are unemployed in Pakistan and unemployment ratio is morethan 12%. And due to energy shortfall every sector is disturbed. This has created a situation of chaos among the people who have no way to go to find proper jobs for themselves.

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Suggestions:

1. Short term solutionLine losses control

The methodology that will provide immediate relief is the conservation and judicious use of whatever little energy is being produced in the country. The current losses in the system are 24%of the total power generated. These include losses incurred during transmission and distributionas well as due to theft. Wasteful consumption such as businesses remaining open till late at nightand unnecessarily brightly lit also contribute to losses. By reducing these to 10 % we can save upto 300 MW of energy. The government should enforce shutting down businesses and forbiddingexcessive and unnecessary lighting during late hours.

Improving Power generating capacity

It is an unfortunate fact that WAPDA and IPPs thermal power plants are running at an averageplant factor of about 50 percent. This means they are producing only 50% of their installedcapacity. They are not being used to deliver their full power. Internationally it is quite usual tohave thermal power plants operating at 75 to 80 percent plant factor. Operating the powerstations at higher plant factors demand better maintenance procedures there. It is felt thatoperating the plants at a higher plant factor will cause them to deliver 20 to 30 %more energy tothe system. This will alleviate the present shortage to a significant extent. Improving the powerplant factor of the existing plant is far more economical then setting up new power plants.

2. Long term solution

Coal Potential in Pakistan

Pakistan has the 5th largest coal reserve in the World, amounting to approximately185.175 billion Tones. Thar has largest reserve in the country that is approximately75.5 billion Tones. Pakistan can generate more than 100,000 MW of electricity for next30 years if it uses all coal available to it. At present Pakistan generates only 0.79% of Its total electricity from coal [WAPDA Annual report 2007-08]. Coal contributesApproximately 39% of the total global primary energy demand. Share of coal in totalElectricity produced in different countries is

PAKISTAN 0.79%

USA 56%

UK 58%

China 81%

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Hydro-electric power potential

Pakistan has a huge potential to produce electric power from hydro-electric power plants. Intable presents a view of electric power generation with power plants whose feasibility study hasbeen completed or is under process. Construction of all these plants gives almost 55,000 MW.This easily meets the electrical energy requirement of Pakistan for next 20-25 years.These plantscan give low cost electricity. As they are run of river plants, they can be easily installed withminimum cost and in short time.

References:

1. Demand side management Concept and Methods, C.W. Gelling and J.H

Chamberlain, Fairmont presses Lilburn, Georgia 1988.

2. FBS, 1998, 50 years of Pakistan in statistics: Federal Bureau of Statistics (FBS),

Government of Pakistan. Vol.1, p.124-137

3. WAPDA Annual Report 2007-08, Water and Power Development Authority

Pakistan. P. 78-85

4. Economy of Pakistan Wikipedia

5.Challenges for Pakistan. Asian Development Review Pakistan Textile Journal (2009).

6. The nation.

7. Google

8. Living with energy shortfall, Jon van till