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KIT – The Research University in the Helmholtz Association
CENTER FOR DISASTER MANAGEMENT AND RISK REDUCTION TECHNOLOGY (CEDIM)
www.cedim.de
Energy Risks toward 2025: Global Analyses
James Daniell, Andreas Schaefer et al.
2 www.cedim.de Dr.-Ing. James Daniell – Energy Risks toward 2025
Energy Risks toward 2025
Goal was to improve current post-disaster rapid modelling by
concentrating on a key sector
Using large scale loss models and global databases:-
• Characterisation of energy systems
• Evaluating investment in infrastructure via capital methods
• Historical disaster effects on power systems and humans
• Follow-on consequences of power outages on industry (hotels,
consumables)
08.07.2019
3 www.cedim.de
Summary of Results
Rapid post-disaster methodology for direct loss estimation of energy
systems GRADE
Database of post-disaster losses from energy systems (and
infrastructure) developed from many sources.
Database of exposure elements and values for energy capital stock
made globally.
Vulnerability function repository developed.
Multi-Hazard EURATOM Project NARSIS on Nuclear Power Plants –
WP1 Lead.
Dr.-Ing. James Daniell – Energy Risks toward 2025 08.07.2019
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Losses in Energy Sector
08.07.2019
Exposure Vulnerability X
Systems Databases
(No. and Value) Susceptibility of
Systems to hazard
Hazard X
Hazard Parameter
(i.e. wind speed)
Network Analysis
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Analysis of Hurricane Irma
08.07.2019 Dr.-Ing. James Daniell – Energy Risks toward 2025
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Analysis of Hurricane Irma – Power Outages
08.07.2019 Dr.-Ing. James Daniell – Energy Risks toward 2025
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Why is this work important?
08.07.2019 Dr.-Ing. James Daniell – Energy Risks toward 2025
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Analysis of global energy systems
• Hazard analysis
• Exposure analysis (Capital stock
determination)
• Historical disaster analysis
• Vulnerability of components
• Network disruption analysis
• Socioeconomic / Policy loss analysis
08.07.2019
9 www.cedim.de Dr.-Ing. James Daniell – Energy Risks toward 2025
Open Subnational Level Datasets: Exposure
08.07.2019
• Number of components
• Type of components
• Location of components
• Value of components
10 www.cedim.de Dr.-Ing. James Daniell – Energy Risks toward 2025
Power stations:
Enipedia-OSM-other datasets hybrid
Over 80,000 power plants geocoded
08.07.2019
11 www.cedim.de Dr.-Ing. James Daniell – Energy Risks toward 2025 08.07.2019
Exposure Cost Analysis: Power Supply
Gunasekera et al. (2015) - we have since used this method in over 70 countries
Investment Data (top-down) Construction Cost Data (bottom-up)
Asset Analysis (no., size, construction cost, investment, type)
12 www.cedim.de Dr.-Ing. James Daniell – Energy Risks toward 2025
Natural Catastrophe Energy Losses Database
• Includes 1407 events with recorded energy-related direct losses
using CATDAT
• Mostly bigger events (many blackouts via TC, EQ, FL over 1m etc.)
• Shows important trends from disasters as to energy-sector losses
• Over 200 PDNAs and DALAs have also been translated and used (an
increase of over 100 since last time.
08.07.2019
13 www.cedim.de Dr.-Ing. James Daniell – Energy Risks toward 2025 08.07.2019
Building up vulnerability databases for
energy systems from past disasters
• Built up globally for each peril
from literature on electrical
systems
• Bigger FDA events gave us a
chance to test functions and
upper parts of the curve.
Earthquake
Wind
Flood
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GRADE Ongoing and includes energy system losses
Paper upcoming – need to finish social media analysis work as part of
this for the Hurricane Irma study, as well as others to see the
application of Bayesian updating.
Realising where the analysis can deliver plausible results and where
additional information on damage from ground sources is required
(cooperation with Jens de Bruijn, Marleen de Ruiter and others at IVM)
Some work has contributed to NARSIS EURATOM project in terms of
vulnerability functions and other hazard modelling components
Current Status and Future Plans
Dr-Ing. James Daniell – Energy Risks toward 2025 08.07.2019
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Outreach during project
EGU Posters and Presentations as part of different contributions.
Use of the methodologies during the GRADE assessments done in
various locations including Ecuador, Haiti, Caribbean, Indonesia,
Guatemala, Mozambique, Madagascar – mostly all TC and earthquake
Used as part of the GRADE press releases, however not explicitly to do
with just energy infrastructure. A direct fund however in Mozambique
was set up for building back the energy infrastructure however.
Dr-Ing. James Daniell – Energy Risks toward 2025 08.07.2019
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Economic loss and
exposure estimation
report and analytical tables
and maps relating to
physical damage
Collaboration with
governments and energy
research groups
Estimates for World
Bank, EC, UN, govts. and
humanitarian agencies
GRADE Outputs and applications
2016 HU Matthew - Haiti 2016 EQ Ecuador
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Did the applications for the large-scale energy
risks project achieve their goal???
Integration in the Post Disaster Needs
Assessment Framework of the World
Bank-EU-UN
Datasets ready for the next FDA to save time….
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Wine: Power Supply of Tanks etc.
Was explored following global and country-level models in Australia (collaboration
partners: Uni Adelaide and ANU) with meetings in November 2017, with work in
2018:- however only for a few small case studies in SW West Australia; and
Melbourne and was not integrated into final analysis full network analysis needed
to constrain uncertainty.
Powerwalls and Solar Tiles:
Hazards and Risk
Applications for small-scale networks
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Social Media fill-ins and more…
Dr.-Ing. James Daniell – Energy Risks toward 2025 08.07.2019
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Advantage of CEDIM
08.07.2019 Dr.-Ing. James Daniell – Energy Risks toward 2025
Support for outreach of the modelling allowing for meeting interested
groups.
Discussion potential each time as part of the Jour Fixe in order to keep
the original project goals in check
The FDA methodology (among others) contributed to the GRADE and
now the feeding back from GRADE and now support of GRADE.
Collaborations through CEDIM partners (existing and otherwise)
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Energy Risks toward 2025:
Collaborations Ongoing….
08.07.2019 Dr.-Ing. James Daniell – Energy Risks toward 2025