Energy [R]evolution – Advancing to Megacities¤sentation DLR_E[R... · Market Strategies for CSP . Change of policy framework Energy System . ... Geothermal (incl. heat pumps) Solar

Energy [R]evolution – Advancing to Megacities

Sonja Simon, Kerstin Lukrafka Department Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment Institute of Engineering Thermodynamics German Aerospace Center (DLR)

> GP E[R] Megacities > German Aerospace Center > November 2014 DLR.de • Chart 1

Introduction of DLR energy research

Background and experience: DLR in the Energy [R]evolution project series

Energy modeling

Scenario approach and results

Outlook for the Megacity project

Overview



Research Areas at DLR

Aeronautics Space Research and Technology Transport Energy Space Administration Project Management Agency


Energy Program Themes

Efficient and environmentally compatible fossil-fuel power stations (turbo machines, combustion chambers, heat exchangers) Solar thermal power plant technology,

solar conversion Thermal and chemical energy storage High and low temperature fuel cells Systems analysis and technology

assessment Permanent team from the Institute of

Solar Research at the Plataforma Solar de Almería (PSA)

Department of Systems Analysis and Technology assessment

> Lecture > Author • Document > Date DLR.de • Chart 5

Energy System Modelling and Scenario s Resources and Potentials

Funding Instruments and Energy Economics Market Strategies for CSP

Change of policy framework

Energy System Technical, organisational and financial Aspects

Behaviour patterns of actors

Agentent based modelling - AMIRIS -

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27 Scientists including 5 PhD Students

Energy System Modelling and Scenarios: Scenario Development


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 20500

100

200

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600

700

614 617585

564 558 548562 574

Gro

ss e

lect

ricity

pro

duct

ion,

TW

h/yr

Hydrogen(CHP, GT))RenewableimportPhotovoltaicpower

Wind

Geothermal

Hydropower

Biomass &biogenic wastesCHP -gas & coalCondensing -gas & oilCondensing -ligniteCondensing -hard coalNuclearpower

main objective: development of consistent and robust transformation concepts towards sustainable energy systems

target oriented energy system scenarios with scenario development tool MESAP

comprise full energy system, focus on sector coupling

analysis of technical, ecological and economic consequences

scenario validation with energy system model REMix

Background and experience

Projects

On global level: Greenpeace Energy [R]evolution – a sustainable world energy outlook (long lasting project series since 2006)

On national level: Greenpeace Energy [R]evolution series: A sustainable Chile Energy outlook (2009), a sustainable Brazil Energy outlook (2013), and multiple comparable projects (>40 countries) (see http://www.energyblueprint.info/)

On regional level: for the Metropolitan Region of Santiago de Chile: Risk Habitat Megacity (- 2010)


http://www.energyblueprint.info/

A Sustainable Mexico Energy Outlook (2012)

Reference Scenario: • Business as usual • broken down from the World Energy

Outlook (IEA)* Energy [R]evolution scenario:

More than 80% of CO2 reduction by 2050 through:

• Expanding renewables • Implementing efficiency measures • Phasing out unsustainable energy

sources


* Current policy scenario

Outlook on the WEO 2013


A Sustainable Mexico Energy Outlook: Results of the scenarios

Projections of final energy demand by sector

Electricity and heat generation

CO2- emissions


Projection of total final energy demand by sector – scenarios REF, E[R]


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PJ/a

Efficiency

Other Sectors

Industry

Transport

electricity generation under the REF and E[R] scenarios


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800


2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050

TWh/

a

Ocean EnergySolar ThermalGeothermalBiomassPVWindHydroNuclearDieselOilGasLigniteCoal

Heat generation under the REF and E[R] scenarios


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PJ/a

Efficiency

Hydrogen

Geothermal (incl.heat pumps)

Solar

Biomass

Fossil


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E[R]

population [million]

Mt/

a

Savings

Other sectors

Industry

Transport

Power generation

Population

Methodology

Overview Scenario approach

Energy System modeling



Working structure for E[R]

energy system inventory demand supply political framework

scenario analysis sustainability

deficits renewable energy

potential energy efficiency

measures

energy system simulation model

future risks air pollution energy security growing inequality

obstacles & win-win

situations

(political) measures CO2-emission trading stakeholder participation feed-in tariffs …

Scenario development in E[R]

Methodology of scenarios in E[R]: normative scenarios


Scenario Development for E[R]: Backcasting


2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

long

term

targ

et y

ear

Forecasting Projection of technology development and

socio-economic change

‘Reference’ future world Alternative policy options

Normative target world

Backcasting

required interventions and investments

long term scenarios starting from normative targets (backcasting) needed developments based on RE potentials, plausible market developments,

sustainable and robust strategies model calibration with energy balances, population & GDP development etc. as

drivers of demand development paths of proven technologies (no speculative options) review process, validation (dynamic modelling), analysis of economic effects


Methodology of scenarios in E[R]: normative scenarios Formulation of story lines for scenarios: main normative parameters and basic

assumptions


Basic assumptions for the Scenarios

Reference Scenarios Energy [R]evolution Scenarios

Business as usual • Development of the energy system

according to the WEO (IEA 2012) • Current policies scenario: currently

implemented policies, without newly developed policies

• As WEO covers only the years until 2035 extension of trends until 2050

More than 80% of CO2 reduction by 2050 • Fossil generation system: expansion

of flexible gas power plants and CHP • Ambitious long lasting efficiency

targets (up to now based on results by Universiteit Uetrecht/Netherlands)

• Limited use of biomass • Mobility: modal shift towards public

transport, e-mobility…. • Technical limitations: rough

assessment of secured capacity, local potential of renewable energy sources



Methodology of scenarios in E[R]: normative scenarios Formulation of story lines for scenarios: main normative parameters and basic

assumptions Energy system Inventory:

Calibration of model with statistical data Transfer to MESAP/Planet

Development of framing parameters (GDP, population, …) Development of techno-economical parameters Transfer to of drivers and parameters to MESAP model: calculation of useful,

end and primary energy, CO2-Emissions, installed capacity, power and heat production, levelized cost of electricity a posteriori analysis of costs and secured capacity


Energy System modeling in E[R]: The MESAP/Planet environment


Graphic interface for structuring and simulating energy systems - Consistent balancing of material and energy flows:

drivers → useful energy → final energy → primary energy → emissions - Calculation of capacities, power production costs - No optimisation model!

The MESAP/Planet environment: Standard Energy System


Refineries

Heating plants

CHP Plants

Hydrogen

Non-energy

El. import

Transport

GDP/capita

Hard

coa

l

Dist

rict h

eat

Gas

Elec

tricit

y

Hydr

ogen

Crud

e oi

l Nu

clear

ene

rgy

Hydr

o po

wer

Win

d en

ergy

So

lar r

adia

tion

Biom

ass

and

was

te

Gas

olin

e/Di

esel

/Ker

osen

e

Lign

ite

Elec

tricit

y im

port

CO2

Geo

ther

mal

ene

rgy

Biof

uel

Elec

tricit

y ex

port

Non-

ener

gy u

se

Dist

rict h

eat l

osse

s

Oce

an e

nerg

y Na

tura

l gas

Elec

tricit

y lo

sses

Fuel

Oil

GDP

Popu

latio

n

Char

coal

Gas transp.

Export/Losses

Power plants

Industry

Oth.Sectors

drivers

Final energy demand: industry HH, S&C traffic non energy use

transformation: power plants CHP heat plants H2-production refineries etc.

Primary energy supply CO2-emissions

Sub structure: heat in households


CO2

Geothermal

Solar collector

Coal burner

Electric heater

District heat

Oil burner

Gasolin/Diesel/Ke...

Electric heat pump

Charcoal burner

Lignite burner

Gas burner

Biomass burner G

as

Heat

Oth

er S

. el.

Cons

. Ha

rd c

oal

Sola

r rad

iatio

n G

eoth

erm

al e

nerg

y Di

stric

t hea

t

Fuel

Oil

Biom

ass

and

was

te

Gas

ol./D

iese

l/Ker

os.

Char

coal

Lign

ite

energy carriers fossil fuels, biomass, solar thermal, environmental, power, district heat

technologies: gas und oil burner biomass burner heat pump solar collectors district heat …

Output





Database - Technical and economical parameters (efficiencies, CHP coefficients,

investment costs, O&M-costs,…) in time series - Input Scenario: drivers, market shares, energy carriers - Outputs: final energy demand, emissions, costs, …

Including Renewable Energy Cost Projections


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$ ct

/kW

h

PV power plant

Wind turbine onshore

Wind turbine offshore

Biomass CHP

Geothermal (with heat credits)

Ocean energy power plant

Solar thermal power plant

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% v

on St

artw

ert 2

009

PV power plant

Wind turbine onshore

Wind turbine offshore

Biomass power plant

Biomass CHP

Geothermal power plant

Solar thermal power plant (CSP)

Ocean energy power plant





Database - Technical and economical parameters (efficiencies, CHP coefficients,

investment costs, O&M-costs,…) in time series - Input Scenario: drivers, market shares, energy carriers - Outputs: final energy demand, emissions, costs, …

Excel-Interface: - Input sheet for drivers and parameters transfer to database - Embedded output reports (tables, graphs)


Next steps: targeting Megacities

Megacities are drivers of economic growth. They are centers of energy and water-use and produce large amounts of waste, waste-water and energy-related GHG emissions.

28 megacities (2014) with 453 million people

(12% of urban dwellers)

Sustainable development of Megacities is essential for improvements of the whole system


Our aim: Outlook on the potential future of Megacities

Is there a future development of a megacity that can consistently integrate the most important societal, economic, structural and ecologic targets of the cities and regions surrounding them? − Transferable model for the energy system of mega cities

− Development of scenarios for the future of the energy system focusing

on the exploitation of efficiency potentials and the integration of renewable energy sources.

− Case Study: Mexico City possible pathways towards a sustainable development

− Transfer of the project to other cities starting with Sao Paolo


Residential Sector (Master Thesis)

Group 1 Income X

Group 2 Income Y

Group 3 Income Z

Standard households

Electricity consumption Fuel consumption CO2 emissions



Typical demand

Population development Economic development Political framework Technological development Others Number of consumers Share of each group Energy intensities Others

Driving factors (example):

Cooperation:


• Information exchange and direct discussions with Greenpeace, • local universities and municipal organisations:

• UNAM • GIZ • CONUEE

to integrate societal, economic, structural and ecologic targets of the cities and regions surrounding them.

Sonja Simon, Kerstin Lukrafka, Thomas Pregger, Tobias Naegler Department Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment, DLR in cooperation with Sven Teske, Greenpeace [email protected] http://www.dlr.de/tt/en/

Thank you for your attention!


http://www.dlr.de/tt/en/

Documents

Energy [R]evolution – Advancing to Megacities¤sentation DLR_E[R... · Market Strategies for CSP . Change of policy framework Energy System . ... Geothermal (incl. heat pumps) Solar