Energy Industry Opportunities and Challenges · Energy Industry. Opportunities and Challenges. June 27, 2017 Accounting Leadership Conference & ... \爀屲Investments that hasten

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Richard McMahon Jr.Vice President, Energy Supply and Finance

Energy IndustryOpportunities and Challenges

June 27, 2017

Accounting Leadership Conference &Chief Audit Executives Conference

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I. Financial ResultsII. Grid ModIII. Tax ReformIV. Energy SupplyV. FERCVI. ESGVII. Security (Cyber & Physical)

Discussion Outline

I. Financial Results

4

Financial Highlightsas of 03-31-2017

StockPerformance

EEI Index DJIA S&P NASDAQYTD 6.1% 5.2% 6.1% 9.8%

1-year 7.5% 19.9% 17.2% 21.4%5-year 79.3% 77.5% 86.7% 91.2%

10-year 99.9% 117.8% 106.3% 144.1%

Dividends

Credit Ratings

• Yield = 3.4%• All companies paying a dividend• 40 of 44 companies increased dividend in 2016

• Strengthening ‘BBB+’ Average• Outlook 85% Stable or Positive

Source: EEI Finance Department, S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Note: Stock returns are total returns, ending 03-31-2017, (i.e., include dividends) except for NASDAQ, which is price appreciation only.

Presenter

Presentation Notes

The Industry’s Credit Rating is BBB+ (the average is 18.96, where BBB is 18 and BBB+ is 19).

5

Industry Capital Expenditures

Actuals

Projections (August 2016)

Projections (April 2017)

Source: EEI Finance Department, company reports, S&P Global Market Intelligence (April 2017).

Notes: Total company spending of U.S. Investor-Owned Electric Utilities, consolidated at the parent or appropriate holding company.Projections based on publicly available information and extrapolated for companies reporting fewer than three projected years (0.1% of the industry for 2018 and 2019).

120.8

104.5

96.5

119.7113.8

109.0

74.1

82.877.7

74.378.6

90.3 90.396.1

104.0

112.5

$30 B$40 B$50 B$60 B$70 B$80 B$90 B

$100 B$110 B$120 B$130 B

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

6

$6.2B 6% $4.7B 4%$5.7B 5% $3.4B 3%

$13.3B 12% $17.9B 15%

$19.3B 18% $20.8B 17%

$28.7B 26%$32.0B 26%

$35.3B 32%

$42.0B 35%

$0 B

$20 B

$40 B

$60 B

$80 B

$100 B

$120 B

Projected Functional CapEx

$108.6 Bas of September 2015 as of August 2016

$120.8 B

Generation

Distribution

Transmission

Gas-Related

Environment

Other

2015P 2016P

Notes: Total company functional spending of U.S. Investor-Owned Electric Utilities. 2015P total does not sum to 100% due to rounding. Projections based on publicly available information and extrapolated for companies not reporting functional detail (1.3% and 0.7% of the industry for 2015 and 2016, respectively).

Source: EEI Finance Department, company reports , S&P Global Market Intelligence (August 2016).

To be updated summer 2017

7 Million+

The Electric Power Industry in AmericaSUPPORTS

JOBS

The U.S. electric power industry supports more than 7 million jobs. This includes nearly 2.7 million jobs directly provided through electric power industry employees, contractors and supply chain, and investments, and an additional 4.4 million

induced jobs, including 445,000 public-sector jobs though tax revenue.

Each job directly provided by the industry supports an additional 1.7 jobs throughout U.S. communities.

2,662,000 4,418,000DIRECTLY PROVIDED INDUCED

756,000 1,415,000491,000CONTRACTORS

& SUPPLY CHAININVESTMENT INDUCED:

ELECTRIC POWERINDUSTRY

EMPLOYEES

959,000678,000INDUCED:

CONTRACTORS & SUPPLY CHAIN

445,000INDUCED:

PUBLIC-SECTOR

2,336,000INDUCED:

ECONOMY-WIDERIPPLE EFFECTS

ELECTRICPOWER

INDUSTRYEMPLOYEES

8

US Electric IOUs Rating History2002 – 2016

Source: EEI Finance Department.

Average Industry Credit Rating is IncreasingBBB BBB+

18%8%

2%

9%21%

10%

25%29%

18%

16%

23%

40%

13%

12%24%

19%8% 6%

2002 2009 2016

A or higher

A-

BBB+

BBB

BBB-

Below BBB-

II. Grid Mod

10

We Are Individualizing Customer Solutions

PAST

PRESENT

Source: The Edison Foundation Institute for Electric Innovation, Thought Leaders Speak Out: Key Trends Driving Change in the Electric Power Industry, December 2015

Presenter

Presentation Notes

As an industry, we are changing the way we provide services to customers and individualizing those services—for the large customers (like data centers and major corporations) that want to use renewable energy; for the residential customers who want to manage their energy use using connected devices and through web-based platforms; and for the major cities that want to be more sustainable and reduce their carbon footprint. We also are partnering with federal government customers, including the military, to meet their changing energy needs. We also help our customers save energy. We invested $7.3 billion in energy efficiency programs in 2014. Our investments avoided the generation of 107 million metric tons of carbon dioxide in 2014 and saved enough electricity to power 14.7 million U.S. homes for one year.

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State Initiatives to Evolve the Grid

Source map: GTM Research

New York: “Reforming the Energy Vision” (REV)

California: Distributed Resource Plans

Hawaii: Power Supply Improvement Plan

Illinois: Energy Infrastructure Modernization Act, NextGrid regulatory proceeding

Maryland: PC44 grid modernization proceeding

Minnesota: “e21 Initiative”

Massachusetts: Grid Modernization Plan

Ohio: PowerForward Grid modernization proceeding

Presenter

Presentation Notes

DER deployment models and compensation Utility business models Distributed resource plans Grid modernization plans Consumer choice options

12

Building the Smarter Energy Infrastructure Customers Want

Source: The Edison Foundation Institute for Electric Innovation

Projected: $52.8 Billion Invested in the Energy Grid in 2016

Presenter

Presentation Notes

The industry already is making progress toward building a more dynamic and more secure energy grid. To date, the industry has installed more than 65 million digital smart meters in about half of all U.S. households. This is one building block of a smarter, stronger energy grid. Investments that hasten the integration of new technologies—such as small-scale renewables, energy storage, and microgrids in our homes and businesses—are another. Investor-owned electric companies are projected to invest $32 billion in the distribution system in 2016.

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STATE REGULATED

T&D

Energy Storage: No Longer Aspirational

Energy storage can be deployed in all parts of the energy grid, and has applications in all parts of the value chain.

Source: Adapted from DOE/EPRI Handbook, EEI (graphic)

Enhance Electric Company Operations

Alleviate high energy prices through time shifts

Reduce the need for new generation

Provide Grid Support

Regulate frequency Reduce spinning, non-spinning,

and supplemental reserve requirements

Voltage support Black start electricity restoration

Defer transmission and distribution upgrades

Relieve electricity congestion

Higher power quality and reliability

Retail electric energy time shift

Enhance Customer Experience

FERC REGULATED

END USE

Optimize Power System

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Micro Grids Are Evolving and Utility Partnerships Are Emerging

Source Data: GTM ResearchPicture: Northwestern grid supported micro grid

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Microgrid: “A group of interconnected loads and distributed energy resources (DER) with clearly defined electrical boundaries that acts as a single controllable entity with respect to the grid [and can] connect and disconnect from the grid to enable it to operate in both grid-connected or island mode.” U.S. Department of Energy Evolution of Regulatory Issues Last year-2015: multiple types of microgrids, concerns with multi-user applications Utility-delivered: how to support customer choice, administrative cost? 3rd party-delivered: violation of franchise? crossing utility rights of way? This year-2016: focus on public purpose applications Community/city/state buy-in via resilience planning Socialize costs National Grid innovation: tiered recovery Will this last? Example: Niagara Mohawk/National Grid Hybrid utility micro grid ownership model” (REV demo proposal) Undergrounding service DER procurement service (no asset ownership) MG control & ops service Billing and financial transactions service Tiered recovery of wires costs MG-connected customers Other village residents Location - Clarkson University, Potsdam, NY

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Street Lighting

Distributed Energy Resources

Smart Transportation

Monitoring & Sensing

Smart Buildings

The Smart City Revolution

Presenter

Presentation Notes

III. Tax Reform

17

EEI Tax Reform Principles

Maintain Interest Deductibility for Corporate Debt

Maintain Deductibility for State & Local Taxes

Maintain Tax Normalization and Address Excess Deferred Taxes

Keep Dividend Tax Rates Low and on Par with Capital Gains Tax Rates

Industry’s Tax Reform Priorities

Presenter

Presentation Notes

David – going into detail earlier in day Reiterate

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Advocacy Messaging Utilities are uniquely regulated Utilities are the most capital-intensive industry Utility capital structure is about ½ debt, ½ equity Losing interest deductibility negatively impacts

customers

“We will not eliminate the interest deduction for small businesses, real estate purchases or utilities.” d

Kevin Brady (R-Texas)House Ways & Means Committee ChairmanJune 2017

Interest Deductibility Impacts Customers

IV. Energy Supply

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Transformation Drivers

Environmental regulations

Financial Incentives

Low Natural Gas Prices

DiversificationDeclining Technology Costs

Customer Demand

State and Federal Public Policies

New Technologies and Business

Models

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=qIxT-K03C8VchM&tbnid=z7ZNtMihB9xMfM:&ved=0CAgQjRwwAA&url=http://www.wealthfoundations.com.au/foundations-of-financial-economics-diversification.html&ei=A9BuUozBDbHF4AOl64H4AQ&psig=AFQjCNEkM0CO8jynbxOFSfb3pGB4y1LsSQ&ust=1383080323255334

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=KBfzW8JCEKIIrM&tbnid=tR6qHjLCE3Y_tM:&ved=0CAgQjRw4EA&url=http://gigaom.com/2011/07/22/community-solar-gardens-making-solar-accessible/&ei=pfQMU5_qI8fTrQfM94CYCw&psig=AFQjCNG25sIOU2RNtOPCIRNpQJVw8W_gGQ&ust=1393444389687095

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Low Natural Gas Prices DrivingFuel Switching

Increased coal to gas switching when the price of gas drops below the price of Central Appalachia coal. The ability to substitute between coal and gas units also moderates gas demand as well.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, SNL

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Generation from natural gas exceeded coal in 7 months in 2015. Coal prices are also declining and inventory at plants is high due to the recent mild weather. Thus some coal to gas switching is reversing. There is an ongoing structural shift from coal to gas due to coal retirements. With gas prices so low – coal is increasingly on the margin in some regions (i.e. PJM). Thus even in the event of an increase in gas prices, in some cases, electricity prices might remain low if coal is still on the margin.

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Our National Fuel Mix Is Changing

Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information AdministrationChart percentages are based on net generation data.

2016 National Energy Resource Mix

(Preliminary)

2006 National Energy Resource Mix

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Electric Companies Use a Diverse Mix of Fuels to Generate Electricity

*Includes generation by agricultural waste, landfill gas recovery, municipal solid waste, wood, geothermal, non-wood waste, wind, and solar.

** Includes generation by tires, batteries, chemicals, hydrogen, pitch, purchased steam, sulfur, and miscellaneous technologies.

Sum of components may not add to 100% due to independent rounding.

Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Power Plant Operations Report (EIA-923); 2014 preliminary generation data.

April 2015

© 2015 by the Edison Electric Institute. All rights reserved.

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U.S. Power Sector Carbon Dioxide Emissions Declining

1/3 of U.S. power generation comes from zero-emissions sources and another 1/3 from natural gas

Coal-to-gas fuel switching has been a key factor in driving down power sector emissions

As of 2016, industry CO2 emissions were nearly 25 percent below 2005 levels

Trajectory will continue based on current trends

Source: Source: Developed from U.S. Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review, March 2017.

Power Sector Carbon Emissions (2015 – 2016)

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Current Generation Focus on Renewables and Natural Gas

Announcements of New Generating Capacity (2016)

Source: EEI; Velocity Suite, ABB Enterprise Software. Data as of March 2017

Capacity Additions and Retirements

Announced retirements (2010-2025)

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We Are Adding More Non-Hydro Renewable Resources to the Mix

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Electric companies are leaders in developing renewable energy resources and integrating them into the energy grid. Almost half of all new electricity generation capacity added in recent years was renewable energy. The Energy Information Administration estimates that electricity output from renewable energy will nearly quadruple between 2010 and 2040. Our solar facilities account for almost 60 percent of all installed solar capacity in the U.S., and we expect to install nearly three times as much solar in 2016 as we did in 2015, with the ultimate goal of bringing cost-effective solar to all U.S. homes, businesses, and communities. This universal solar is cheaper, too. The average cost per watt of solar energy from a solar power plant was $1.45 per watt in 2015. By comparison, the average cost of solar energy from private or rooftop solar was $3.54 per watt in 2015 – 60 percent more expensive. In addition, electric companies provide almost 100 percent of the wind energy nationwide.

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Pipeline Congestion Is Improving

November 2010 – March 2011

Winter gas pipeline congestion – residential and commercial peak season

Average capacity utilization of compressor stations and pipeline segments.

November 2014 – March 2015

Source: ABB, The Velocity Suite

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Still some congestion in the northeast – the winter of 2014-2015 was particularly cold. This has improved further for 2015-2016 due to additional pipeline expansions. According to FERC, 35 new pipeline projects were placed into service in 2015, totaling 475.3 miles and 13,842.3 MMcf/day.

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Opposition Groups Fighting Natural Gas on Multiple Fronts

29

The Value of Fuel Diversity: The January 2014 “Polar Vortex”

Fuel diversity helps to protect consumers from contingencies such as fuel unavailability and fuel price fluctuations

A variety of generation sources helped maintain reliability during the Polar Vortex

Image Source: NASA

Record storage withdrawals helped meet increased demand for natural gas.

Dual-fueled generators were able to rely on oil during times of gas pipeline constraints.

The nuclear fleet operated at 95% capacity at the height of the polar vortex. (NEI)

Coal plants, many currently slated for retirement, were employed to help meet demand.

Regional wind generation was strong, providing PJM with 3,500 MW while electricity prices averaged more than $500/MWh. (AWEA)

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The Value of U.S. Power Supply Diversity

The study examines the risks to a diversified electricity portfolio and finds:

“[A] combination of factors—tightening environmental regulations, depressed wholesale power prices, and unpopular opinions of coal, oil, nuclear, and hydroelectric power plants—is currently moving the United States down a path toward a significant reduction in power supply diversity.”

The study quantifies the impact of a reduced fuel and technology diversity profile in America’s electric sector, concluding:

Electricity supply in the reduced diversity case increases average wholesale power prices by about 75 percent and retail power prices by 25 percent

Electricity price impacts would reduce U.S. gross domestic product by nearly $200 billion

Price impacts would also lead to roughly one million fewer jobs

The typical household’s annual disposable income would decline by about $2,100

V. FERC

32

Acting Chairman LaFleur (D) - 2019 Commissioner Honorable (D) - 2017 leaving at end of

term Vacant - 2018 Vacant – 2020 Vacant – 2021

Current Commissioners

Current Nominees• Neil Chatterjee – Senior Advisor for Mitch McConnell• Rob Powelson – Chair of Pennsylvania PUC• Kevin McIntyre – Partner, Jones Day

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Bay’s term would have ended Jun 2018 Clark left at the end of his term in 2016 Moller left at the end of his term in 2015 Neil Chatterjee – senior advisor Mitch McConnell – 2021 term Rob Powelson – chair PA PUC – 2020 term Kevin McIntyre – partner Jones Day The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission last week delegated some additional authorities to the Office of Energy Market Regulation (OEMR), in an effort to keep agency business moving ahead even as regulators lack sufficient numbers to gather a quorum. The order charges the director of OEMR, or a designee, with the authority to take "appropriate action" on some types of uncontested filings, accept uncontested settlements, and accept and suspend rate filings. Investigations can continue, along with hydro inspections, liquefied natural gas safety inspections, audits and environmental reviews. But until a third commissioner is seated, FERC will not be able to issue significant orders or make determinations on pending infrastructure projects. The work delegated to staff will allow rate applications to be accepted and suspended, which keeps them from being automatically approved absent commission action

33

Wholesale Markets

34

Technical Conference held May 1-2, 2017 to discuss how the competitive wholesale markets can select resources of interest to state policy makers while preserving the benefits of regional markets and economic resource selection. (Docket No. AD17-11-000)

Current market structure is not achieving outcomes desired by policymakers:• Concerns about reliance on gas• Concerns about loss of nuclear units • No recognition of environmental stewardship objectives

Questions raised:• Who is responsible for resource adequacy• Should the markets accommodate or achieve state policies

State Policies and Wholesale Markets

Presenter

Presentation Notes

VI. ESG / Sustainability

36

20%12% 8% 4%

13%20%

20%

6%

22% 23% 27%

25%

19%26% 24%

35%

13%11% 14%

25%

13% 9% 7% 4%

2003 2007 2011 2015

A or higher

A-

BBB+

BBB

BBB-

Below BBB-

Why Regulated Electric Companies Are Different

Sector Beta vs. S&P500

0.19

1.03

1.24

1.02

0.94

1.07

0.99

0.76

1.13

0.00 1.00 2.00

Utilities

Technology

Materials

Industrials

Health Care

Financials

Energy

Consumer Staples

Consumer Discretionary

Movement Relative to MarketLow High

US Electric IOUs Credit Rating History

Industry Average is ImprovingBBB BBB+

Actuals Projected

2006 2016P

National Fuel Mix119.7

113.8109.0

74.1

82.877.7

74.378.6

90.3 90.396.1

104.0

112.5

$30 B$40 B$50 B$60 B$70 B$80 B$90 B

$100 B$110 B$120 B$130 B

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Industry Investment

Source: EEI, company reports, S&P Global Market Intelligence (April 2017).

Source: AltaVista Research LLC (April 2016).

Source: Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration. Note: Chart percentages are based on net generation data.

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Beta – Utilities are by far the least volatile investment among U.S. sectors. On top of that, we’ve outperformed the broader markets over the last 10 years. Credit Quality – The industry’s average credit rating has gradually strengthened over the last 12 years, reaching its current BBB+ average in 2014. Capital Expenditures – The industry projects to hit a fifth straight record-high of capex in 2016. National Fuel Mix – The industry continues to make great strides towards a cleaner generation fleet. As of 2015, 2/3 of the fleet is low carbon and 1/3 of that is zero carbon. Regulation - Finally the regulatory compact provides for the opportunity to earn a return on invested capital and for orderly capital stock turnover.

37

Economic17%

Environment37%

Social46%

Report Content

1 1

11

17

8

0

5

10

15

20

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Num

ber o

f Rep

orts

Year of Most Recent Report(comprehensive reports)

3

8

11

7

2 24

10

5

10

15

< 20

< 40

< 60

< 80

< 12

5

< 15

0

< 17

5

> 17

5

Num

ber o

f Rep

orts

Page Count

Length of Reports(by page count)

None6

12%

Minimal6

12%

Comprehensive38

76%

Number of Companies and Level of Reporting

23 (53%)9 (21%)

5 (12%)3 (7%)

1 (2%)1 (2%)1 (2%)

0 5 10 15 20 25

SustainabilityResponsibilityEnvironment

CitizenshipCommitmentStewardship

Accountability

Number of Reports

Keyword Occurrence in Report Titles(out of 38 reports)

[None]17

45%GRI21

55%

Number of Companies Using aCommon Reporting Framework

Electric Company Reporting on ESG / Sustainability

Note: Data is current as of August 2016.

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Most of our companies are performing some sort of sustainability reporting, providing information and data that generally fall into the three broad ESG categories: Environment, Social, and Governance. We quantified economic information in place of governance because it is somewhat broader in scope. The median report vintage is 2015, and the average report length is 71 pages. Of the companies providing a comprehensive report, about half of them use the Global Reporting Initiative framework to some extent.

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Qualitative

ESG/Sustainability Governance Management and oversight of ESG / Sustainability.

Transition Strategy Practices, programs, and initiatives designed to support the company’s transition to an increasingly sustainable energy future.

Standardized ESG / Sustainability Metrics will Inform Investors

Quantitative

Utility Portfolio An Excel-based data reporting template that is customized for electric utilities to include metrics on owned and/or purchased generation data by technology/resource type, energy efficiency, reliability, grid modernization, transmission and distribution, as well as other metrics related to emissions, environmental stewardship, and natural and human resources.

Emissions

Resources

EEI has initially identified 5 areas of focus based on a review of our member company ESG/Sustainability Reports and discussions with investors

Note: data for these areas should include as much historical, current, and forward-looking information as is appropriate.

39

ProxyAccess

(3)

EmissionsReporting

(2)

Renewables(2)

Two DegreeScenario

(9)

Other(2)

PoliticalSpending

(5*)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Shareholder ActivismResults of IOU Shareholder Proposals in 2017

Pass

Fail

Notes: *Only four results charted because one proposal was withdrawn prior to shareholder meeting after discussion with company.**ExxonMobil and Occidental Petroleum had Two Degree shareholder proposals pass in 2017. XOM and OXY are shown for information only and not included otherwise.

Source: Member Company Survey, Proxy Monitor, SEC.

9 of the 23 (39%) shareholder proposals were related to “Two Degree” reporting.Despite being the first year many were introduced, the Two Degree proposals received significant votes in favor and was accepted by shareholders of one member company.

OXY**ExxonMobil**

PPL

40

Stakeholder Outreach

InvestorsContinue to expand

Related Trade GroupsAPI, IPIECA (petroleum)

AGA, APPA, NRECA (electric & gas)

Proxy ServicesInstitutional Shareholder Services (ISS),

Glass, Lewis & Co, Egan-Jones Proxy Services, etc.

Credit Rating AgenciesMoody’s, S&P, Fitch

ESG Data ProvidersSustainalytics, MSCI, Bloomberg,

RobecoSAM, etc.

Interest GroupsCeres, SASB, etc.

Membersand

EEI

VII. Security

42 42

PurposeThe ESCC is the principal liaison between the electric sector and the federal government for coordinating efforts to prepare for, and respond to, national-level disasters or threats to critical infrastructure.

How Industry & Government Work Together toProtect Critical Infrastructure

Presenter

Presentation Notes

The CEO-led Electricity Subsector Coordinating Council (ESCC) serves as the principal liaison between the federal government and the electric power industry, with the mission of coordinating efforts to prepare for, and respond to, national-level disasters or threats to critical infrastructure. The National Infrastructure Advisory Council called the ESCC a model for how critical infrastructure sectors can more effectively partner with government. The ESCC has been a catalyst for major initiatives that are improving the security posture of the industry and, by extension, the nation. The ESCC is taking action on issues in three main areas: facilitating coordination with the government and other critical infrastructure sectors; improving information sharing capabilities, tools, and technologies; and enhancing resilience, response, and recovery efforts.

Cross-Sector Coordination

• Interdependences across lifeline sectors (Communications, Downstream Natural Gas, Financial Services, Transportation, & Water)

• Focus on communications sector• Development of the Strategic Infrastructure

Coordination Council (SICC)

43

Cyber Mutual Assistance

• A New Approach – Not just reactive

• CMA Coordinator – Senior level expert

• Open to all electric generation, transmission, distribution, and downstream natural gas entities

• Currently, 117 members

• Participants reimbursed for costs incurred while providing emergency cyber assistance

• Voluntary program – NDA required

44

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Has CMA continues to grow and mature… We anticipate we will invite other sectors and the government to participate. There already is a tremendous amount of interest out there. With respect to the rest of the year: CMA is refining its playbook Will exercise the program in July in preparation for GridEx IV this November

45

I. Financial ResultsII. Grid ModIII. Tax ReformIV. Energy SupplyV. FERCVI. ESGVII. Security (Cyber & Physical)

Recap

Richard McMahon Jr.Vice President, Energy Supply and Finance

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

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Energy Industry Opportunities and Challenges · Energy Industry. Opportunities and Challenges. June 27, 2017 Accounting Leadership Conference & ... \爀屲Investments that hasten