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Energy in Japan after Fukushima-Nuclear vs Coal vs Natural Gas not Renewable-
Dec 9th 2015CEE annual meeting
Hisanori NeiProfessor
National Graduate Institute for Policy StudiesJapan
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3500.0mtoePrimary Energy Supply by country
China US Russia India Japan Canada Germany Brazil
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1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Final Energy Consumption & GDP
Industry Business Home Transpot GDP(Real2005)TY GDP(Nominal)
Japan is the 3rd largest Economy and consuming 5th largest volume of energy After Fukushima(2011) , energy consumption has decline 4 consecutive years.Last 3 years , Japanese economy has recovered by the AbenomicsIn 2014, House sector shows most rate of reduction in energy demand
0.002.004.006.008.00
10.0012.0014.00
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EJ Primary Energy Supply by Sources
Oil Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Hydro Renewable
0%20%40%60%80%
100%
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2014
PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY BY SOURCES
Oil Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Hydro Renewable
In 2014, we had no nuclear power supply. It’s the first time since 1965.It result in constant increase of electricity tariff.
Natural Gas (LNG) has been major alternative power sources.Thanks producers especially Qatar for the generous increase of LNG export to Japan.
2030(After energy
conservation measures)
2013(Actual result)
Energy demand
Final energy consumption
Heat, gasoline, town gas,
etc.75%
Electric power 25%
361 mi kl 50.3mkl15%(13%)
Electric power28%
Heat, gasoline, town gas,
etc.72%
Economic growth1.7%/year
326 m kl
Primary energy supply
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2030
Coal25%
Natural gas18%
Petroleum30%
Renewable energy13 to 14%
Nuclear power10 to 11%
489 million kl
LPG 3%
Self-sufficiency rate24.3%
values are approximate
GOJ concluded its energy mix at 2030 (July 2015)
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1960 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 2000 05 10 13
Crude Oil Import by countries
Saudi Iran UAE other ME China Indonesia Rossua Others ME%
Japan is heavily depending on imported crude from ME
1,065 billion kWh40%.
196.1 billion kWh20%(17%)
Electric power980.8
billion kWh
Power demand Power source composition
(Total generated energy)
1,278 billion kWh
2030 20302013
Economic growth1.7%/year
Electric power966.6
billion kWh
Petroleum 2%
Coal22%
LNG22%
Nuclear power17 to 18%
Renewable energy19 to 20%
Energy conservation17%
Renewable energy22 to 24%
Nuclear powerApprox. 20 to 22%
LNG27%
Coal26%
Petroleum 3%
Hydroelectric8.8 to 9.2%
Solar power7.0%
Wind power 1.7%
Biomass3.7 to 4.6%
Geothermal1.0 to 1.1%
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Base load ratio: 56%
values are approximate
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Basic Act on Energy Policy (June 2002)<Objectives>� Securing of Stable Supply (Article2)� Utilization of Market Mechanisms(Article4)� Environmental Compliance(Article3)<Responsibility of Stakeholders>National Government(Article 5), Local Government(Article6), Business(Article 7), Citizens (Article8).Mutual Cooperation(Article9)
<Mandate/Obligation of National Government >/Legislative arrangement, Fiscal or Financial arrangement if needed(Article10)/Report to the Diet(Article 11: White Paper)/Strategic Energy Plan (Article 12: Strategic Energy Plan)/Promotion of International Cooperation (Article13)/Dissemination of Knowledge Regarding Energy (Article 14)
Major Change around the time of the Accident(Strategic Energy Plan)�TEPCO’s Fukushima Accident and subsequent to NPS a stop� Concerns over serious damage caused by the TEPCO’S Fukushima Nuclear Accident and the Safety of Nuclear Power Generation� Outflow of National Wealth and increased supply instability due to higher dependency on fossil fuels� Rapid increase in Greenhouse gas emissions in Japan� Exposed defects related to supply systems, including power interchange and emergency supply between eastern and western Japan� Reduced confidence in the government and business operators involved in energy supply� Change in the demand trend-increased introduction of cogeneration and changes in power saving actions� Higher electricity bills due to a change in the power source mix. And the impact of the international regional differences in energy price on the macro economy, industry and household economy (by combination with the shale revolution)
�Shale Revolution� Signs of a change in the global energy supply-demand structure caused by the shale revolution in North America
�Turmoil in MENA region after “Arab-Springs”� Change in the geopolitical structure of resource-supplying regions, including instability in the Middle Eastern and North African regions.
The Strategic Energy PlanThe Strategic Energy Plan (First) Oct. 7th 2003(Background)/TEPCO’s Falsification Scandal---Subsequences to 17 NPS shut down/Kyoto Protocol ratified (June 2002)The Strategic Energy Plan (Second) Mar. 9th 2007(Background)/Oil Price Increase---Demand Shock/Kyoto Protocol Effective (Feb. 2005), First Commitment Period start 2008/New National Energy Strategy (May 2006) ---Nuclear RenaissanceThe Strategic Energy Plan (Third) June. 18th 2010 (Background)/Administration Change from LDP to DP/Oil Price Spike and fluctuate/25% CO2 emission reduction proposal by PM of Japan (Sep 2009. UN)
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1970-19901990-20102012-2030
There are several challenges to overcome for achieving the policy target
/The target of Energy Conservation is extremely high./The share of Renewable and Nuclear・・・Political Message/Power Market Reform・・・Uncertain/Coal vs Natural Gas ・・・ Fuel Price/Nuclear
GOJ need to review its Strategic Energy Plan in every 3 years by Law.
/Last Strategic Energy Plan was published on April 2014./In fact, the amendment of the plan has been done every 3 – 4 years./Next 3 years, there should be some progresses to create more concrete plan .
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1965 1968 1973 1975 1977 1980 1982 1985 1986 1989 1990 1992 1995 1996 1999 2000 2005 2010 2013 2020 2030
Primary Energy Supply
Feb-67 Jul-70 Aug-75 Jun-77 Jun-77 Aug-79 Apr-82 Nov-83 Oct-87Oct-90 Jun-94 Jun-94 Jun-97 Jun-97 Jul-01 Jul-01 Mar-05 Mar-05Mar-05 May-08 May-08 May-08 Aug-09 Aug-09 Aug-09 Jul-15 actual
Historically, between 1960 and 1980, actual energy consumption had been lower than planed energy outlook.From late 80s , it had been difficult to lower energy demand than planned outlook by 2008.
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65.5%
9.2%
16.4%
8.9%
43.0%（158 million kL）
20.6%（76 million kL）
22.5%（82 million kL）
14.0%（51 million kL）
Real GDP1973→2013
2.5 Times
0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.7 2.02.5
5.1 5.25.7 5.7
6.2
7.7
2.5
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Primary energy supply per GDP unit of each country（（（（2011））））
Do we have more rooms to improve energy efficiency?
Current electricity system・Partial liberalization : retail competition for over 50kw customers・Retail players : 10 big GEUs(vertically integrated, regional monopoly), PPS, etc・Situation is…
・Share of non-GEU power producer and supplier : 3.6%・0.6% of the total retail market sales is transacted at JEPX
Negative aspects of regional monopoly were revealed by 3.111.Lack of system to transmit electricity beyond regions.2.Little competition and strong price control3. Limit in digesting the change in energy mix (cf. renewables)
Decision on Electricity System Reform in 2013
・The Cabinet decided to execute the Policy on Electricity System Reform on April 2, 2013
Objectives:/Securing the stable supply/Suppressing electricity rates to the maximum extent possible/Expanding choices for consumers and business opportunities
Process:A bold reform will be steadily carried out step by step focusing on the 3 agendas:/Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators was established on April 2015/Full Retail Competition starts at April 2016 (regulated tariff expired by 2020)/Unbundle the transmission/distribution sector by 2020
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Supply Share by Sources - Gas Production
Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Energy Hydro electric Renew- ables Gas Production
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140.0BCM Natural Gas Import by countries
Pipelin Import LNG import
Supply Share of Natural Gas is varied by countries. Japan maintain the largest volume of Import.After the Fukushima Nuclear Accident, Japan increase its NG import from 75Mt to 90Mt/yearIf NPS resume as expected, import volume will decrease to previous level.
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8Yen/tkcal Import Fuel Price Changes in Japan (CIF)
Coal LNG CrudeMkw 2014 New Add Abolish 2024
Hydro 48.14 0.4 0.03 0.04 48.53
Normal 20.82 0.2 0.03 0.04 21.01
Pumped-Strage 27.32 0.2 0 0 27.52
Thermal 159.41 14.71 0.97 5.07 170.02
Coal 40.41 4.77 0.61 1.01 44.78
LNG 74.55 9.48 0.36 1.2 83.19
Oil 44.45 0.46 0 2.86 42.05
Nuclear 44.26 0 0 2.22 42.04
Renewable 5.86 0.09 0 0 5.95
Wind 0.09 0.02 0 0 0.11
Photovoltaic 4.47 0.03 0 0 4.5
Others 1.3 0.04 0 0 1.34
Total 257.67 15.2 1 7.33 266.54
18.7% 18.2%15.7% 16.8%
28.9% 31.2%
17.3% 15.8%17.2% 15.8%2.3% 2.2%
2 0 1 4 2 0 2 4
COMPOSION OF POWER PLANT BY UTILITIES
Hydro Coal LNG Oil Nuclear Renewable
/Fuel Price difference make difficult to increase Natural Gas Power Units/Utilities consider to build new NG Power Unit as well as Coal ones./Under the future liberalized power market, many smaller (less than 112.5Mw) coal power plants are planned to build
EIA Coal Retirement Forecast
Change of Nuclear Regulatory SystemReform of Nuclear Regulatory Organization/Independence
Separate the functions for nuclear regulation and nuclear promotionEstablish the Nuclear Regulation Authority(NRA) as an independent commission body
Amendments to the Nuclear Regulation Act/New regulation on severe accidents/Regulation based on the state-of-the art information (backfiting)/40-years operational limit for NPPs (exceptional less-than-20 years extension)New Regulatory Requirement/Strengthening of Design Basis/Severe Accident Measures/Enhanced Measures for Earthquake/Tsunami
Principle of Regulation/Place emphasis of Defense-in-Depth/Eliminate common cause failure/Protective measures against extreme natural hazards
Process of Resuming Nuclear Power Plant in Japan Submit Permit Submit Approve Submit Approve Approve Request Approval
NRA
Licensee
Reactor Installation Permission
Assessment of Change in Reactor Installation
Local Government
Safety Agreement with Licensee
Construction Approval
Change of Construction Plan
Tech-Spec Approval
Change of Tech-Spec
Construction Inspection
Operation
Tomari
Higashidori
Onagawa
Fukushima-Daiichi
Fukushima-Daini
Tokai-Daini
Kashiwazaki-Kariwa
Shika
Tsuruga
Mihama Takahama
Ooi
Shimane
Hamaoka Ikata
Genkai
Sendai
Next Challenge of Nuclear in Japan
NRA’s permission for over 40 Years Operation NPS in within a few yearsEDMG facility by 2018Longer Post-Outage Period after 2017
New NPS development
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201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024
Longer term operation
Capacity Electricity Electricity
After Fukushima, new regulatory system and severer safety standards are implemented.It has required to the utilities or licensees to do many works. It needs time for several years.The main process of resuming NPS has not been changed significantly.After years, power supply by NPS in Japan will recover. We need to consider next issue challenged by the industry.
Next Challenge of Nuclear in JapanAfter Fukushima, new regulatory system and severer safety standards are implementedIt has required to the utilities or licensees to do many works. It needs time for several years.The main process of resuming NPS has not been changed significantly.
/Fukushima Daiichi(2011) Sendai NPS Unit 1 resuming 25 months after new regulation guideline set ,
36 months after NRA establishment, 36 month
/Kashiwazaki Kariwa(2007)25 month to 45 month more after the earthquake (Unit 6-7, Unit1, Unit5)
*Unit 2-4 never operated since then/Shika Criticality event hiding (2007) 25months after stopping for inspection /Hamaoka & ShikaTurbine Missile(2006) 8 month to 20 month after the accident /Onagawa Earthquake(2005) 7 month to 21 month after the scram /Mihama Unit 3 accident (2004) 32 month after the accident/Fukushima Daiichi Falsification (2002) 40 month after stopping for inspection/Monju (FBR) (1995) 178 month after the accident
After years, power supply by NPS in Japan will recover. We need to consider next issue challenged by the industry.
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Nuclear Capacity & Electricity Generation
Capacity Approved Case2 Case3 Electricity Case2 Case3 target low target high
Estimation for NPS supply recovery/NPS supply will recover by 2020 exceeding the target of the outlook in 2018/If NRA reject the proposed TA related with fault line assessment, it still exceed the target./If NRA agreed the fault line assessment, It will exceed the lever of before the accident
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NPS Operation and Inspection in Japan
Periodic RetestPeriodic RetestPeriodic RetestPeriodic Retest
�ECCS pumpECCS pumpECCS pumpECCS pump
�Emergency DGEmergency DGEmergency DGEmergency DG
2-3 month Normal Operation within 13 month
Safety Surveillance
Periodic Safety Inspection
Regular Outage Regular Outage Regular Outage Regular Outage
InspectionInspectionInspectionInspection
2-3month Normal Operation within 13 month
Regular Outage Inspection
Regular Outage Inspection
AjustmentOperation(25days)Outage
Periodic RetestPeriodic RetestPeriodic RetestPeriodic Retest
�ECCS pumpECCS pumpECCS pumpECCS pump
�Emergency DGEmergency DGEmergency DGEmergency DG
Resilience for AC power supply
There are 100s of mobile equipment provided in NPSs
Resilience for CV cooling
Hydrogen Passive AutocatalysticRecombiner Heated Igniter
Resilience for H2 Accumulation
Resilience for Water Injection & Tsunami
Water Proof Door
Mobile Water Injection Pump
Motor driven pump
New NPS construction at Sanmen China(Nov. 2015)
Unit 1 Unit 2
