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Page 1: energy - iea-pvps.org · 22883 Quicksilver Drive, Sterling, VA 20166-2012, USA Earthscan is an imprint of James and James (Science Publishers) Ltd and publishes in association with
Page 2: energy - iea-pvps.org · 22883 Quicksilver Drive, Sterling, VA 20166-2012, USA Earthscan is an imprint of James and James (Science Publishers) Ltd and publishes in association with
Page 3: energy - iea-pvps.org · 22883 Quicksilver Drive, Sterling, VA 20166-2012, USA Earthscan is an imprint of James and James (Science Publishers) Ltd and publishes in association with

energy from the desert

Practical Proposals for Very Large Scale Photovoltaic SystemsEDITED BY KOSUKE KUROKAWA,

KEIICHI KOMOTO,

PETER VAN DER VLEUTEN

DAVID FAIMAN

London • Sterling, VA

Summary

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First published by Earthscan in the UK and USA in 2006

Copyright © Photovoltaic Power Systems Executive Committee of the International Energy Agency, 2006

All rights reserved

Typesetting by MapSet Ltd, Gateshead, UK

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with the International Institute for Environment and Development

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according to the ISO standard adopted by the International Energy Agency.

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Contents

Foreword ivPreface vTask 8 Participants vi

1. INTRODUCTION 1

1.1 Objectives 11.2 Concept of very large scale photovoltaic power generation (VLS-PV) systems 11.3 Practical approaches to realize VLS-PV 3

2. THE MEDITERRANEAN REGION: CASE STUDY OF VERY LARGE SCALE

PHOTOVOLTAICS 5

3. THE MIDDLE EAST REGION: A TOP-DOWN APPROACH FOR INTRODUCING

VLS-PV PLANTS 7

4. THE ASIAN REGION: PROJECT PROPOSALS OF VLS-PV ON THE GOBI DESERT 10

4.1 Demonstrative research project for VLS-PV in the Gobi Desert of Mongolia 104.2 Feasibility study on 8 MW large scale PV system in Dunhuang, China 11

5. THE OCEANIA REGION: REALIZING A VLS-PV POWER GENERATION SYSTEM AT

PERENJORI 14

6. DESERT REGION COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT 16

7. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 19

7.1 General conclusions 197.2 Requirements for a project development 207.3 Recommendations 20

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iv

Foreword

This book deals with the concept of very large scalephotovoltaic power generation (VLS-PV) systems andrepresents the second report that has been prepared onthis subject within the International Energy Agency(IEA) Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme (PVPS),Task 8: Very Large Scale Photovoltaic Power Systems.Under the leadership of Professor K. Kurokawa, andbased on the previous conceptual work, the interna-tional project team has elaborated upon the subjectwith concrete case studies.

The current rapid growth of the photovoltaicmarket is dominated by grid-connected applicationsand the average size of these projects has recentlyincreased. Starting from small scale system sizes in thekilowatt (kW) power range, systems of tens to hundredsof kW are now regularly realized. These photovoltaicsystems are often mounted on or integrated withinbuildings and have reached system sizes up to a fewmegawatts (MW). In parallel, ground-based arrays onthe order of 10 MW and more have been recently built.Through these projects, the photovoltaic sector hasgained important experience in the design, constructionand operation of photovoltaic systems in the MWrange.

Surface and land availability will limit the greatersize of photovoltaic systems in densely populated areasof the planet. On the other hand, enormous surfaces ofhigh solar irradiation exist in arid or desert areas. These

offer a large potential for photovoltaic systems beyondthe size currently known, for which the term VLS-PVsystems has been introduced. Such systems may seemunrealistic due to the current state of technology.However, this is precisely the origin of this report,aimed at exploring the detailed conditions for VLS-PVsystems in selected regions.

The report provides a detailed analysis of technical,socio-economical and environmental aspects of VLS-PVsystems for case studies in the Mediterranean, theMiddle East, and the Asian and Oceania regions.Moreover, it includes a brief comparison with concen-trated solar (thermal) power (CSP) systems and a firstassessment on global climate impact.

I am confident that through its careful, detailed andthorough analysis, this report forms a comprehensiveassessment of the concept of very large scale photo-voltaic power systems. It should help to rationalize thediscussion of this concept and to provide the basis forconcrete feasibility studies and project proposals.

I would like to thank Professors K. Kurokawa andK. Komoto, as well as the whole Task 8 expert team fortheir dedicated effort in making this publication possi-ble. I hope that this unique analysis will contribute tothe advance of photovoltaics in new applications.

Stefan NowakChairman, IEA PVPS

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It is already known that the world’s very large desertspresent a substantial amount of energy-supplyingpotential. Given the demands on world energy in the21st century, and when considering global environmen-tal issues, the potential for harnessing this energy is ofhuge import and has formed the backbone and motivefor this report.

The work on very large scale photovoltaic powergeneration (VLS-PV) systems, upon which this report isbased, first began under the umbrella of theInternational Energy Agency (IEA) Task 6 in 1998. Thenew Task 8 – Very Large Scale Photovoltaic PowerGeneration Utilizing Desert Areas – was established in1999.

The scope of Task 8 is to examine and evaluate thepotential of VLS-PV systems, which have a capacityranging from several megawatts to gigawatts, and todevelop practical project proposals for demonstrativeresearch towards realizing VLS-PV systems in thefuture.

For this purpose, in the first phase (1999–2002), keyfactors that enable the feasibility of VLS-PV systemswere identified, and the benefits of VLS-PV applicationsfor neighbouring regions were clarified.

In order to disseminate these possibilities, wepublished the first book entitled Energy from the

Desert: Feasibility of Very Large Scale PhotovoltaicPower Generation (VLS-PV) Systems in 2003. At thesame time, we started the second phase of activity.

In the second phase (2003–2005), in-depth casestudies on VLS-PV systems were carried out, and practi-cal proposals for demonstrative research projects onpilot photovoltaic (PV) systems suitable for selectedregions were outlined, which should enable sustainablegrowth in VLS-PV systems in the future. Practicalprojects for large scale PV system were also discussed.

‘It might be a dream, but …’ has been a motive forcontinuing our beloved study of VLS-PV. Now we havebecome confident that this is no longer a dream.

This report deals with one of the promising recom-mendations for sustainable development in terms ofsolving world energy and environmental problems inthe 21st century.

Professor Kosuke KurokawaEditor

Operating Agent, Alternate, Task 8

Keiichi KomotoEditor, Task 8

v

Preface

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Kazuhiko Kato, OAResearch Centre for Photovoltaics, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), Japan

Kosuke Kurokawa, OA–AlternateTokyo University of Agriculture and Technology (TUAT), Japan

Masanori Ishimura, SecretaryPhotovoltaic Power Generation Technology Research Association (PVTEC), Japan

Claus BenekingErSol Solar Energy AG, Germany

Matthias ErmerSolarWorld Industries Deutschland GmbH, Germany

David FaimanDepartment of Solar Energy and Environmental Physics, Jacob Blaustein Institute for Desert Research, Ben-GurionUniversity of the Negev, Israel

Thomas HansenTucson Electric Power Company, US

Herb HaydenArizona Public Service, US

Keiichi KomotoMizuho Information and Research Institute, Inc (MHIR), Japan

John S. MacDonaldDay4Energy, Inc, Canada

Fabrizio PalettaCESI Centro Electtrotecnico Sperimentale Italiano, Italy

Angelo SarnoENEA, Italy

Jinsoo SongKorea Institute of Energy Research (KIER), Korea

Leendert VerhoefNew-Energy-Works, The Netherlands

Peter van der VleutenFree Energy International, The Netherlands

Namjil Enebish, ObserverNational Renewable Energy Center, Mongolia

vi

Task 8 Participants

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1.1 OBJECTIVES

The scope of this study is to examine and evaluate thepotential of very large scale photovoltaic power genera-tion (VLS-PV) systems, which have capacities rangingfrom several megawatts to gigawatts, and to developpractical project proposals for demonstrative researchtowards realizing VLS-PV systems in the future.

Our previous report, Energy from the Desert:Feasibility of Very Large Scale Photovoltaic PowerGeneration (VLS-PV) Systems, identified the keyfactors enabling the feasibility of VLS-PV systems andclarified the benefits of this system’s applications forneighbouring regions, the potential contribution ofsystem application to global environmental protection,and renewable energy utilization in the long term. It isapparent from the perspective of the global energysituation, global warming and other environmentalissues that VLS-PV systems can:

• contribute substantially to global energy needs;• become economically and technologically feasible;• contribute considerably to the environment; and• contribute considerably to socio-economic develop-

ment.

This report will reveal virtual proposals of practicalprojects that are suitable for selected regions, and whichenable sustainable growth of VLS-PV in the near future,and will propose practical projects for realizing VLS-PVsystems in the future.

1.2 CONCEPT OF VERY LARGE SCALE PHOTO-

VOLTAIC POWER GENERATION (VLS-PV) SYSTEMS

Solar energy is low-density energy by nature. To utilizeit on a large scale, a massive land area is necessary. Onethird of the land surface of the Earth is covered by verydry desert and high-level insolation (in-coming solarradiation), where there is a lot of available space. It isestimated that if a very small part of these areas,

approximately 4 %, was used for installing photo-voltaic (PV) systems, the resulting annual energyproduction would equal world energy consumption.

A rough estimation was made to examine desertpotential under the assumption of a 50 % space factorfor installing PV modules on the desert surface as thefirst evaluation. The total electricity production wouldbe 2 081 x 103 TWh (= 7,491 x 1021 J), which means alevel of almost 17 times as much as the world primaryenergy supply (0,433 x 1021 J in 2002). These arehypothetical values, ignoring the presence of loads nearthe deserts. Nevertheless, these values at least indicatethe high potential of developing districts located in solarenergy-rich regions as primary resources for energyproduction.

Figure E1.1 shows that the Gobi Desert area inwestern China and Mongolia can generate as muchelectricity as the current world’s primary energy supply.Figure E1.2 depicts an image of a VLS-PV system in adesert area

Three approaches are under consideration toencourage the spread and use of PV systems:

1 Establish small scale PV systems independent ofeach other. There are two scales for such systems:installing stand-alone, several hundred watt-class PVsystems for private dwellings, and installing 2 to 10kW-class systems on the roofs of dwellings, as wellas 10 to 100 kW-class systems on office buildingsand schools. Both methods are already being used.The former is employed to furnish electric power indeveloping countries, which is known as the solarhome system (SHS), and the latter is used in Westerncountries and Japan.

2 Establish 100 to 1 000 kW-class mid-scale PVsystems on unused land on the outskirts of urbanareas. The IEA Photovoltaic Power SystemsProgramme (PVPS)/Task 6 studied PV plants for thisscale of power generation. Systems of this scale arein practical use in about a dozen sites in the world at

1

1. Introduction

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the moment; but their number is expected toincrease rapidly in the early 21st century. Thiscategory can be extended up to multi-megawatt size.

3 Establish PV systems larger than 10 MW on vastbarren, unused lands that enjoy extensive exposureto sunlight. In such areas, a total of even more than1 GW of PV system aggregation can be easilyrealized. This approach enables installing a largenumber of PV systems quickly. When the cost ofgenerated electric power is lowered sufficiently inthe future, many more PV systems will be installed.This may lead to a drastically lower cost of electric-ity, creating a positive cycle between cost andconsumption. In addition, this may become a feasi-ble solution for future energy need andenvironmental problems across the globe, and amplediscussion of this possibility is worthwhile.

The third category corresponds to VLS-PV. The defini-tion of VLS-PV may be summarized as follows:

• The size of a VLS-PV system may range from 10MW to 1 or several GW, consisting of one plant, oran aggregation of plural units distributed in thesame district operating in harmony with each other.

• The amount of electricity generated by VLS-PV canbe considered significant for people in the district,nation or region.

• VLS-PV systems can be classified according to thefollowing concepts, based on their locations:– land based (arid to semi-arid deserts);– water based (lakes, coastal and international

waters);

– locality options: developing countries (lower-,middle- or higher-income countries; large orsmall countries) and Organisation for EconomicCo-operation and Development (OECD)(countries).

Although the concept of VLS-PV includes water-basedoptions, much discussion is required. It is not neglectedhere, but is viewed as a future possibility outside themajor emphasis of this report.

The advantages of VLS-PV are summarized asfollows:

• It is very easy to find land in or around desertsappropriate for large energy production with PVsystems.

• Deserts and semi-arid lands are normally highinsolation areas.

• The estimated potential of such areas can easilysupply the estimated world energy needs by themiddle of the 21st century.

• When large-capacity PV installations areconstructed, step-by-step development is possiblethrough utilizing the modularity of PV systems.According to regional energy needs, plant capacitycan be increased gradually. It is an easier approachfor developing areas.

• Even very large installations are quickly attainablein order to meet existing energy needs.

• Remarkable contributions to the global environmentcan be expected.

• When VLS-PV is introduced to some regions, othertypes of positive socio-economic impacts may beinduced, such as technology transfer to regional PV

2

Energy from the Desert

Figure E1.1 Solar pyramid

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industries, new employment and growth of theeconomy.

• The VLS-PV approach is expected to have a drasticinfluence on the chicken-and-egg cycle in the futurePV market. If this does not happen, the goal ofachieving VLS-PV may move a little further away.

VLS-PV systems are already feasible. A PV system witha capacity of 10 MW was installed and connected to thepublic grid in April 2006. Currently, a land-based VLS-PV concept is in its initial stage.

These advantages make VLS-PV a very attractiveoption and worthy of being discussed in the context ofthe 21st-century’s global energy needs.

1.3 PRACTICAL APPROACHES TO REALIZE VLS-PV

Solar energy resources, PV technologies and renewableenergy will help to realize important economic, environ-mental and social objectives in the 21st century, andwill be a critical element in achieving sustainable devel-opment.

In order to advance the transition to a global energysystem for sustainable development, it is very importantto orient large and increasing investments towards

renewable energy. If investments continue with businessas usual, mostly in conventional energy, societies will befurther locked into an energy system incompatible withsustainable development and one that further increasesthe risks of climate change.

In order to promote renewable energy and its diver-sity of challenges and resource opportunities (as well asthe financial and market conditions among and withinregions and countries) different approaches arerequired. Establishing policies for developing markets,expanding financing options and developing the capac-ity required are crucial in incorporating the goals ofsustainable development within new policies.

As a result, increasing renewable energy use is apolicy, as well as a technological, issue that appliesdirectly to achieving VLS-PV.

VLS-PV is a major project that has not yet beenexperienced. Therefore, in order to realize VLS-PV, it isnecessary to identify issues that should be solved and todiscuss a practical development scenario.

When thinking about a practical project proposalfor achieving VLS-PV, a common objective is to find thebest sustainable solution. System capacity for suitabledevelopment is dependent upon each specific site withits own application needs and available infrastructure,

3

Introduction

Figure E1.2 Image of a VLS-PV system in a desert area

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especially access to long-distance power transmission,and human and financial resources.

From the technological viewpoint, it is important tostart with the research and development (R&D) or pilotstage when considering overall desert development. Interms of commercial operation, the pilot or demonstra-tion stage is more crucial.

The proposals developed in this report may motivatestakeholders to realize a VLS-PV project in the nearfuture. Moreover, the practical project proposals, withtheir different viewpoints and directions, will provideessential knowledge for developing detailed instructionsfor implementing VLS-PV systems.

4

Energy from the Desert

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The economic conditions for VLS-PV systems in theMediterranean region were examined. Originally focus-ing on the Sahara Desert-bordering countries ofMorocco and Tunisia, Portugal and Spain were alsoincluded in order to compare the impact of recentlyapproved PV feed-in tariffs with the less-supportiveframework environments in Northern Africa. Two siteswere selected for each country, one more affected bymarine climate influences with lower irradiation, andone representing a higher irradiated desert-like location.The study was performed from a professional projectdeveloper’s perspective by determining PV electricitygeneration cost and potential revenues from electricitysales from VLS-PV systems to customers, either toconsumers on a standard electricity price level or togrid-operating entities on a feed-in tariff basis.

As taken from experience with already realized MWsystems, a stationary (non-tracking, flat-plate) largescale PV installation can, to date, be realized at around4 010 EUR/kW. The value serves as a fair approxima-tion for the following calculations, including a limited

overhead cost of 8 %. Note that this overhead does notyet include a further 6 to 8 % capital acquisition cost,which is typically required if the project is sold toprivate or fund investors, a frequently encountered wayof project financing at present. Three-quarters of thesystem cost amounts to the PV modules, the moduleprices thus being the main parameter for future costreduction. For annual cost, 20 years’ linear depreciationand 100 % loan financing at a 5 % interest rate serve asmodel parameters, which, of course, need to be adaptedfor concrete project proposals. No investment for landwas considered here, and the estimated land rental costis included in the 2 % annual operation and mainte-nance cost. The total annual cost per kW was assumedto be equal to 480 EUR/kW at all locations.

PV electricity generation costs in the analysedMediterranean countries are between 30,2 and 47,6EUR cents/kWh, as shown in Table E2.1. As expected,the generation cost for PV calculated is distinctly higherthan the price level of conventional electricity drawnfrom the grid in all places. In this context, it is impor-

5

Figure E2.1 The Mediterranean regions within

the case study

2. The Mediterranean region: Case study of very large scale photovoltaics

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tant to note that the assumed 100 % loan financingmakes up a substantial proportion of the generationcost. Generation costs below 20 EUR cents/kWh resultfor almost all sites, without including the financing costand the 7 % safety reduction in the annual energy yield.This confirms that PV generation costs are not too farabove the conventional price line and could reach oreven fall below this line after a price decrease of PVmodules, which is already anticipated by foreseeableadvances in technology and economy of scale withincreasing mass production.

Although the lowest generation cost of 30,2 EURcents/kWh is reached in Quarzazate, this is not lowenough to become attractive for a buyback scheme inMorocco, even considering that the general electricityprice level is comparatively high there. Tunisia has acentralized electricity industry with a low price level,making the situation for PV even more difficult.Morocco and Tunisia have no specific legal frameworkto support PV electricity generation and no existingfeed-in tariff. Therefore, the economic feasibility forVLS-PV is low in these Northern African countries ifbased on achieving income from electricity sales toconsumers or on the grid alone – that is, not consideringany investment subsidies.

Portugal and Spain also have much lower prices forconventional electricity than the calculated PV electric-

ity-generation cost. In these countries, however, smallersystems appear to be economically feasible with theavailable feed-in tariffs in higher irradiation sites. Theexciting question for VLS-PV is whether large systemscan also be economically operated under specialcircumstances. Answering this question requires acloser look at the conditions in these SouthernEuropean countries.

In summary, we expect the best conditions for VLS-PV to develop in Spain on an intermediate time scale of2 to 5 years, even though there are now several largerprojects proposed in Portugal. Concrete realization ofVLS-PV projects depends upon successful negotiationbetween project developers, PV and electricity indus-tries, and politicians with regard to acceptance,sustainability and incentives in every single project.

Generally, VLS-PV as a centralized electricity sourceneeds to compete with conventional electricity sourcesand other centralized renewable energy sources (RES),such as solar-thermal and wind energy, which are alsoproposed and implemented strongly in the studiedregion, in addition to decentralized small scale PV.Lower investment costs, additional support and/orhigher feed-in tariffs for large systems are required, inaddition to intelligent financing schemes in order tomake VLS-PV economically feasible in the consideredMediterranean region on a larger scale.

6

Energy from the Desert

Table E2.1 Solar irradiation, energy yield and PV electricity-generation cost data compared with the conventional electricity price level and

local feed-in tariff rates for stationary systems at two representative sites in four Mediterranean countries

Country Site Annual Annual energy Generation cost Conventional Feed-in tariff

global yield for PV grid electricity rate

irradiation (kWh/kW/year) (EUR cents/kWh) price level (EUR cents/

(kWh/m2/year) (EUR cents/kWh) kWh)

Morocco Casablanca 1 772 1 337 35,9 ~8–12 None

Quarzazate 2 144 1 589 30,2

Tunisia Tunis 1 646 1 219 39,4 ~2–5 None

Gafsa 1 793 1 339 35,8

Portugal Porto 1 644 1 312 36,6 ~12 ~55 <5 kW

Faro 1 807 1 360 35,3 ~31–37 >5 kW

Spain Oviedo 1 214 1 008 47,6 ~9 41,44 <100 kW

Almeria 1 787 1 372 35,0 21,62 >100 kW

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A top-down approach to providing solar electricity toany given region must address the following fivequestions:

1 How much land area is available for the harvest ofsunshine, and how much electricity could thisresource provide?

2 How much electricity is required? 3 What kind of technology should be used, and how

much of it would be needed for the task?4 At what rate should the technology be introduced? 5 What monetary resources would be required and

how could these resources be provided?

This study provides a set of answers for the principalelectricity-consuming countries in the Middle East.

First, we studied the current electricity requirementsand land availability of all countries in the region, withthe specific aim of being able to provide some 80 % oftheir total electricity needs with solar energy within 36years. For all of the major electricity-producingcountries, it was concluded that land area considera-tions should present no obstacles to such aims.

Second, we studied existing concentrator photo-voltaic (CPV) technology at the system componentlevel, considering the expected costs involved in theirmass production. These costs included the VLS-PVplants and the necessary mass production facilities for

7

Table E3.1 Land area, electricity requirements and solar electricity potential in the Middle East

Country Land area (km2) Electricity production Solar electricity potential by technology

in 2002 (TWh) Static, 30° tilt One-axis tracking Two-axis tracking Concentrator

(TWh y–1) (TWh y–1) (TWh y–1) photovoltaic

(CPV) (TWh y–1)

Bahrain 665 6,9 43,5 46,3 22,1 32,4

Cyprus 9 240 3,6 604,3 643,1 306,8 450,0

Egypt 995 450 81,3 65 102,4 69 283,3 33 048,9 48 478,4

Iran 1 636 000 129,0 106 994,4 113 865,6 54 315,2 79 673,2

Iraq 432 162 34,0 28 263,4 30 078,5 14 347,8 21 046,3

Israel 20 330 42,7 1 329,6 1 415,0 675,0 990,1

Jordan 91 971 7,3 6 014,9 6 401,2 3 053,4 4 479,0

Kuwait 17 820 32,4 1 165,4 1 240,3 591,6 867,8

Lebanon 10 230 8,1 669,0 712,0 339,6 498,2

Oman 212 460 9,8 13 894,9 14 787,2 7 053,7 10 346,8

Qatar 11 437 9,7 748,0 796,0 379,7 557,0

Saudi Arabia 1 960 582 138,2 128 222,1 136 456,5 65 091,3 95 480,3

Syria 184 050 26,1 12 036,9 12 809,9 6 110,5 8 963,2

Turkey 770 760 123,3 50 407,7 53 644,9 25 589,2 37 536,0

UAE 82 880 39,3 5 420,4 5 768,4 2 751,6 4 036,3

Yemen 527 970 3,0 34 529,2 36 746,7 17 528,6 25 712,1

3. The Middle East region: A top-down approach for introducing VLS-PV plants

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their manufacture. It was concluded that, in Israel, VLS-PV plants would cost no more than 850 USD/kW, andthat production facilities, capable of an annual through-put of 1,5 GW collectors and 0,5 GW storage, wouldcost approximately 1 170 MUSD.

Third, we studied the kind of investment that wouldbe necessary to create a production facility in fouryears, the first VLS-PV during the fifth year, and onesuccessive new VLS-PV plant every year thereafter.Assuming an open credit line being made available bythe government (or investors) at a 3 % real rate of inter-est, it was concluded that, in the Israeli case:

• the credit line would reach its maximum value in the13th year;

• the maximum required credit would be equal to thecost of approximately ten fossil-fuelled plants;

• the credit-line plus interest would be fully paid offby electricity revenues after 21 years;

• by that time, revenues would be sufficiently high toenable both the continued annual production ofVLS-PV plants with no further investment, and thedecommissioning and replacement of old plantsafter 30 years of service.

It is important to point out that after the initial invest-ment has been paid off, the price of electricity no longerdepends upon any factors related to its generation. Itbecomes a purely arbitrary figure that can be fixed atany desired level. For our examples, we arbitrarily fixedit at 5,5 US cents/kWh. However, if it is deemed desir-able to continue installing VLS-PV plants at the rate ofone per year, then the price of electricity can be loweredto a figure enabling the annual net revenue from sales toprecisely cover the cost of one new VLS-PV plant.

Similarly, if it becomes necessary to replace old plantsafter 30 years of service, it is sufficient to fix theelectricity price during the 29th year at a level coveringthe cost of constructing two new VLS-PV plants thefollowing year, etc. Simple arithmetic shows that inboth of these examples, the required electricity pricewill be less than the 9 US cents/kWh that we haveadopted for our calculations.

In the fourth part of this study, we repeated theIsraeli calculations for the other major electricityproducers in the region, making certain simplifyingassumptions that were specified in each case. Givenuncertainties surrounding local electricity prices, labourcosts, and production/consumption growth rates, ourresults for these countries should be regarded as indica-tive rather than definitive.

A number of far-reaching conclusions can be drawnfrom the results of this study. First, VLS-PV plants canyield electricity at costs fully competitive with fossilfuel. Second, one may think in terms of typically 80 %of a country’s entire electricity requirements comingfrom solar energy within a period of 30 to 40 years.Third, VLS-PV plants turn out to be triply renewable.In addition to the normal sense in which solar is deemedto be a renewable energy, the revenues from this top-down approach would be sufficient to completelyfinance the continued annual construction of VLS-PVplants and the replacement of 30-year-old VLS-PVplants with new ones without the need for any furtherinvestment.

In conclusion, the present top-down study stronglyindicates that VLS-PV could directly compete withfossil fuels as the principal source of electricity for anycountry in the Middle East, and an investment schemehas been suggested for implementation.

8

Table E3.2 Expected economic benefits to Israel of VLS-PV plant introduction during the first 36 years

Interest rate 3 % /year

Yearly added solar power 1,5 GW

Yearly added six-hour storage power 0,5 GW

Credit line capacity required for the entire project 9 781 MUSD

Interest paid 3 397 MUSD

Loan repaid after 21 years

Total solar power installed 46,5 GW

Total storage power installed 15,5 GW

Electricity price after five years, when solar electricity sales start 9 US cents/kWh

Electricity price after 22 years, when all debts are paid off 5,5 US cents/kWh

Land area required for installation 558 km2

Fraction of total national land area 2,7 %

Yearly manpower requirements for solar production 4 500 jobs

Yearly manpower requirements for solar operation 11 625 jobs

Yearly manpower requirements for storage production 1 500 jobs

Yearly manpower requirements for storage operation 3 875 jobs

Headquarters and engineering 1 395 jobs

Total number of jobs after 36 years 22 895 jobs

Energy from the Desert

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9

The Middle East region

Figure E3.1 Land requirement for providing 80 % of each country’s

electrical requirements

Figure E3.2 Total solar generating and storage capacity at the end

of 36 years

Egypt Iran Iraq Israel Kuwait SaudiArabia

Syria Turkey UAE

2000

1500

1000

500

0

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ate

(sq

km

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GW

)

Egypt Iran Iraq Israel Kuwait SaudiArabia

Syria Turkey UAE

200

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50

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Generation

Storage

Figure E3.3 Maximum credit line required at 3 % real interest Figure E3.4 Total number of jobs created

Max

imu

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ne

( B

USD

)

Egypt Iran Iraq Israel Kuwait SaudiArabia

Syria Turkey UAE

35

30

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0Egypt Iran Iraq Israel Kuwait Saudi

ArabiaSyria Turkey UAE

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4.1 DEMONSTRATIVE RESEARCH PROJECT FOR

VLS-PV IN THE GOBI DESERT OF MONGOLIA

Mongolia has the vast Gobi Desert area in the southernand south-east parts. There are two types of electricityusers in Mongolia, nomadic families and users of theelectricity network. While electrification using PV fornomadic families has occurred, an existing electricitynetwork supports Mongolian economic activity.

The electricity networks (transmission lines) havebeen constructed only in specific regions, such as thosecentring on Ulaanbaatar, the capital of Mongolia. Thetransmission lines have basically been constructed alonga railway connecting Atlanbulug with Zumiin Uudthrough Ulaanbaatar – the borders in the north andsouth-east. The railway is playing a very important rolein Mongolian economic activity. Therefore, these areasalong the railway and transmission lines are expected to

further develop in the future. However, electricity forthe areas is generated by coal at Ulaanbaatar, worseningthe atmospheric environment around Ulaanbaatar. As aresult, installing large scale carbon-free renewableelectricity such as the VLS-PV system may contributeboth to protecting against air pollution and supportingregional development.

The VLS-PV scheme is a project that has not beencarried out before. In order to achieve VLS-PV, asustainable development scheme will be required. Thereare many technical and non-technical aspects thatshould be considered. Therefore, we will propose ademonstrative research project in the areas along therailway and discuss a future possibility for VLS-PV inthe Gobi Desert, in Mongolia. The proposed projectwill include three phases as follows (see Table E4.1 andFigure E4.1). The potential sites in the Gobi Desert areaalong the railway were identified using long-term

10

Table E4.1 Proposed projects for VLS-PV development in Mongolia

Location Capacity Demands

First stage: Sainshand 1 MW Households and public welfare

R&D/pilot phase (significant level compared to

the peak demand and electricity

usage in Sainshand city)

Second stage: Four sites along the railway: 10 MW/site Industry

demonstration phase 1 Sainshand (total: 40 MW) (surpasses the peak demand and

2 Zumiin Uud almost equivalent to electricity

3 Choir usage around these locations)

4 Bor-Undur

Third stage: Five sites along the railway: 100 MW/site Power supply

deployment phase 1 Sainshand (sub-total: 500 MW) (almost double the peak demand

2 Zumiin Uud and 500 MW and significant level compared to

3 Choir (total: 1 GW) electricity usage in Mongolia)

4 Bor-Undur

5 Mandalgobi

One site between Oyu–Tolgoi

and Tsagaansuvrage

4. The Asian region: Project proposals of VLS-PV on the Gobi Desert

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meteorological observation data conducted over the last30 years. Grid access, as well as favourable market,economic, climatic and weather conditions, prevail insouthern Mongolia – hence the choice of the candidatesites for the development of the VLS-PV system in theGobi.

It is expected that the first phase will take four tofive years. The project site will be Sainshand and thecapacity of the PV system will be 1 MW. The assumeddemands are households and public welfare needs in theregion. The project has benefits beyond electricity.Apart from the creation of jobs and employment, thetourism industry will also benefit. In the second phase,10 MW PV systems will be installed in Sainshand,Zumiin Uud, Choir and Bor-Undur, where they arelocated along the railway lines. These sites are impor-tant cities and the scale is classified as medium-largescale in Mongolia. The total capacity of PV systemsinstalled will reach 40 MW, and the demands assumedare to supply industry sectors, such as mining, locatedin the sites’ neighbourhoods. The project will then beshifted to the third phase, which is the deploymentphase. In this stage, 10 MW PV systems will beenhanced to 100 MW VLS-PV systems, and one new100 MW system will be constructed in Mandalgobi.

Besides these 100 MW VLS-PV systems, another 500MW VLS-PV system will be constructed in betweenOyu Tolgoi and Tsagaansuvraga, which are located inUmnugobi and Dornogobi provinces.

Renewable energy development is a promising wayfor social development and is one of the most importantpolicies in Mongolia. Two documents, the Law for thePromotion of Renewable Energy and a proposal for aUtilization and National Renewable EnergyProgramme, have recently been drafted and submittedto the government for the approval of parliament. Finalapproval of these two documents will positively affecttaxes and other funding that will assist in the develop-ment of VLS-PV systems.

4.2 FEASIBILITY STUDY ON 8 MW LARGE SCALE

PV SYSTEM IN DUNHUANG, CHINA

Energy shortages and environmental pollution havebecome the bottleneck of social and economic develop-ment in China. Improving the current structure ofenergy supply and promoting utilization of renewableenergy are effective solutions for these problems. Thephotovoltaic power generation system involves cleanenergy without greenhouse gas emissions. In China,

11

The Asian region

Figure E4.1 Location of VLS-PV system

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there are huge lands in the Gobi Desert and elsewherethat provide the possibility of large scale PV systems onvery large scale applications. Only when PV is used forlarge scale applications can costs be reduced to the levelof those associated with traditional electric power.

The Gobi area in Gansu is about 18 000 km2. Thisarea can be used to build 500 GW VLS-PV, which ismore than the whole power capacity in China today.The targeted place for 8 MW large scale photovoltaicpower generation (LS-PV) in the Gobi Desert is atQiliying, 13 km from Dunhuang city. The latitude isN-40° 39’, with a longitude of E-94° 31’ and an eleva-tion of 1 200 m. It is only 5 km from Qiliying to the 6 000 kVA/35 kV transformer station, so it will be notcost that much to build a high voltage transmissionline.

The 8 MW PV system will be divided into eight sub-stations of 1 MW each. Each 1 MW sub-station willfeed the generated electricity to a high voltage grid (35 000 V) through a 1 000 kVA transformer. Each 1MW sub-station will be divided into five channels with

200 kW each, as shown in Figure E4.3. Each 200 kWPV channel will be equipped with a grid-connectedinverter to convert the DC power from the PV intothree-phase AC power for the primary of the 1 000 kVAtransformer.

Each 1 MW sub-station and each 200 kW channelwill be independent. Such design offers the advantagesof being easier for troubleshooting and maintenance,being flexible for potential investors, and allowingvarious types of PV systems to be installed andcompared.

The system efficiency is assumed to be 0,77. Usingthe efficiency and the annual in-plain irradiation facingsouth with a 40° tilted angle, the annual output is calcu-lated to be 13 761 MWh/year.

Total capital investment is 322,47 million yuan(approximately 38,7 MUSD), and 86 % of total invest-ment is for PV system equipment, such as PV modules,inverters and transformers, as shown in Table E4.2.However, it is expected that 96,74 million yuan(approximately 11,6 MUSD; 30 % of the total capital)will be a grant provided by the central government ofChina, and the real required capital will be 225,73million yuan (approximately 27,1 MUSD).

12

Energy from the Desert

Figure E4.2 Location of Dunhuang, Gansu

Table E4.2 Capital investment for 8 MW LS-PV system (1 yuan =

approximately 0.12 USD)

Investment Share

(million yuan) (percentage)

Equipment 277,02 85,91

PV module 236,8 73,43

Inverter 34,2 10,61

Transformer 3,52 1,09

Test and monitoring 2,5 0,78

Civil construction 15,56 4,83

Transportation and

installation 7,35 2,34

Feasibility study and

preliminary investment 7,0 2,17

Miscellaneous 15,36 4,65

Total 322,47 100S

HA

AN

XI

S I C H U A N

Q I NG

H

AI

I N N E RM

ON

GO

L

I A

Lanzhou

G A N S U

G A N S U

NIN

GX

IA

DunhuangCity

XI N

J I AN G

Dunhuangsite

0 500km

Figure E4.3 1 MW PV sub-station

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The Gansu grid company will guarantee 1,683yuan/kWh (0,202 USD/kWh) as the feed-in tariff andthe annual income for the PV system will be 23,16million yuan (approximately 2,78 MUSD): 13,761MWh/year x 1,683 yuan/kWh. The tariff purchased bythe grid company will be added on to all the electricityconsumed in Gansu Province and the electricityconsumption in Gansu Province was 340 x 108 kWh in2002. Therefore, the additional tariff will be 0,006 8yuan/kWh (0,000 82 USD/kWh): 23,16 millionyuan/340 x 108 kWh. For a family consuming 2kWh/day, the annual consumption will be 730 kWh,and they will only need to pay 5 yuan/year (0,6

USD/kWh) in addition.The proposed 8 MW LS-PV plant in Dunhuang city

is considered the first pilot project in China with theGreat Desert Solar PV Programme proposed by theWorld Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) and an expertgroup. The development of further large scale PVsystems in other regions is also being discussed. It hasbeen proposed that 30 GW of solar PV power genera-tion capacity could be developed by 2020 if governmentincentive policies are developed and are in place. Thiscould enable China to become a leading country insolar power development in the world.

13

The Asian region

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Perenjori is a small township approximately 350 kmnorth-east of Perth in the wheat belt of WesternAustralia and situated at E-116,2° longitude and S-29° latitude. The required land to set up a VLS-PVpower generation project can be obtained at a reason-ably low price or leased for 30 to 50 years from localfarmers. The land is flat and suitable for mountingthe structure or installing solar PV power generationprojects.

Several issues arise in terms of achieving a very largescale solar photovoltaic power generation project atPerenjori. Although the Great Sandy Desert receivesmore solar radiation than Perenjori, the overalleconomy of setting up the project and generation costswill be less at Perenjori due to its location to enoughloads and the availability of the local grid.

At present, the load is almost negligible; but there isa strong interest in promoting the mining industry inthe region provided that sufficient and good qualitypower is available for mining activities. A number ofmining companies have also shown interest in setting uptheir mining operations in the Perenjori regions, andthere will be a load of the order of 1 GW over the next10 to 15 years.

The size of a VLS-PV system may range from 10MW (pilot) to 1 or several GW (commercial), consistingof one plant or an aggregation of a number of units,distributed in the same region and operating inharmony with one another. Figure E5.2 gives a roughidea how a VLS-PV project can be realized in a circulardistance of 100 km of Perenjori over the next 15 years,aggregating to a capacity of over 1 GW.

What will be feasible is to install several stand-alonesolar PV systems as per the load requirement of eachindividual mining operation in the region. Then, when

three to four projects have been set up in the region, theycan be interconnected by creating a small local grid.

A project for installing a 10 MW pilot power gener-ation system will be proposed as the first step for aVLS-PV system at Perenjori. The estimated project costof a 10 MW PV power generation project at Perenjoriwill be of the order of 60 MAUD (approximately 45,6MUSD), with the following cost breakdowns as shownin Table E5.1. Almost 70 % of the project costcomprises PV modules only.

The generation cost of the pilot project of 10 MW,after availing of a 50 % subsidy from the government,will be approximately 14 AUD cents/kWh (0,11USD/kWh) under the Mandatory Renewable Energy

14

5. The Oceania region: Realizing a VLS-PV power generation system at Perenjori

Figure E5.1 Location map of Perenjori

Perth

PERENJORI

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Target (MRET) of the federal government of Australia,which is very much comparable with the cost of powergeneration from a diesel power project. At a price of 36AUD cents/litre (0,27 USD/litre), diesel fuel is availableto the mining companies in Perenjori; the cost of powergeneration from diesel power projects comes to about12 AUD cents/kWh (0,09 USD/kWh). Therefore, themining companies would be interested in purchasingpower from the proposed pilot project of 10 MW, andthe installation of a diesel-based power project as abackup has been suggested.

Prior to setting up the pilot project, arrangementsmust be made by the project developers to sell thepower to the mining operators. The power purchaseagreements (PPAs) should be signed for the wholelifetime of the project. The Shire of Perenjori and MidWest Development Commission would play an impor-tant role in negotiating the terms and conditions of thePPAs, and their assistance would be necessary to attractproject developers for this project, as well as for otherprojects to be installed later on.

15

The Oceania region

Table E5.1 Estimated project cost for 10 MW PV power generating system (1 AUD= approximately 0,76 USD)

Components Unit cost Total cost (AUD)

PV modules 4,4 AUD/Watt 44 000 000

Mounting structure with single-axis tracking 10 % of modules 4 400 000

Inverter(s) 125 000 5 000 000

Transformers and cabling 4 % of modules 1 760 000

Installation and commissioning 7 % of modules 3 080 000

Land Lump sum 500 000

Miscellaneous, including transportation to site Lump sum 1 260 000

Total 60 000 000

Figure E5.2 Possible scenario to

realize VLS-PV at Perenjori

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In this report, the following issues are researched andinvestigated:

• the possibility of utilizing VLS-PV in desert areas;• a sustainable scenario for installing VLS-PV systems;• modelling of sustainable society with solar photo-

voltaic generation and greening in desert;• specific problems of VLS-PV systems in desert areas;• the use of solar PV generation with regard to

elemental technology/systems for sustainableagriculture;

• sustainable agriculture utilizing other regionalrenewable energy options.

Figure E6.1 depicts a desert community developmentthat aims to achieve an ideal community. Agricultureand tree planting can be facilitated with plentiful renew-able energy, and electricity is used by neighbouringcities. The community must have the potential to appealto other people through the following themes:

• Sustainable PV stations: sustainable energy produc-tion. Here, the VLS-PV system is the main feature,using sunshine and wind, along with wind powerand other renewable energy. At night, electricitycomes from battery storage instead of from the grid.

• Sustainable farming. Utilizing soil and water conser-vation technology, we will conserve and rehabilitatethe landscape. This may not be difficult to achievewith PV support because the main reason for deser-tification is human activity relating to energy needs.Conservation and rehabilitation will take plant andanimal ecology into account.

• Sustainable community. Statistical and scenarioanalyses are used to develop an ideal community. Inorder to sustain regional society, in addition to thefacilities and technology needed, education andtraining are provided.

• Remote sensing. Remote sensing technology has thepotential to find suitable places in which to imple-ment VLS-PV and wind power systems. It cangenerate data on soil and water required for sustain-able agricultural production.

• Desalination. Renewable energy power can operatea desalination system, which will supply drinkingand irrigation water.

• Effect of PV station on forest, grassland andfarmland. Proper operation of a water pump anddesalination system can provide good quality waterand remove salt from the groundwater. This canenhance crop yields and reduce the use of fuelwood.Renewable energy-driven greenhouse agriculturecan produce high quality and high product yields.

• Effect of PV station on the local community. PVstations can go beyond supplying electricity to localcommunities to producing more employment in theregion. This would also increase local incomesthrough selling electricity. PV structures can alsoprotect houses from strong winds.

• Effect of forest, grassland and farmland benefits onlocal community. Agriculture can supply food tocommunities and leads to wind protection effectsand employment. People in local communities canobtain more income by selling products.

• Technology. Implementing a subsurface drainagesystem may save groundwater quality, and desalina-tion equipment protects soil from damage due tosalinization.

In sum, this virtual community is ideal, but is based onthe existence of a good groundwater supply and apower grid near the community.

Nevertheless, agriculture in the desert is difficulteven though arid and semi-arid regions are better suitedfor solar irradiation. While there is occasionally morethan enough sunshine, it diminishes easily. Rain-fed

16

6. Desert region communitydevelopment

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agriculture is limited by low precipitation. Althoughirrigated agriculture has been maintained in some areas,it often causes soil degradation, largely throughimproper water distribution, and inadequate irrigationpractice and quality.

Figuring out the appropriate amount and quality ofirrigation water, including groundwater behaviour, isimportant. Controlling water quality for irrigation, as

well as controlling the amount of irrigation usingpumps, is also necessary. Although this is easy toachieve in developed countries, arid and semi-aridregions still have problems due to the cost of improvingwater distribution through pumping. In this report wesuggest realistic proposals for using PV systems to drivethe energy necessary to control the quality and quantityof irrigation water.

17

Desert region community development

Figure E6.1 Framework of desert community development and research topic

Figure E6.2 Desalinized drip irrigation

system

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Implementing a PV system in an arid or semi-aridregion also has the potential of introducing electricity asan alternative energy source for wood used as fuel. Thisis significant for forest conservation purposes. PVsystems also protect water recourses by reusing desalin-ized groundwater. In the past, water was desalinizedthrough distillation, using solar heat; but this required ahuge area to desalinize salty water because the distilla-tion rate of solar heat is quite low. Considerableamounts of low saline water are available when we usea PV system to generate electricity to drive a desaliniza-tion system, such as reverse osmosis (RO) orelectro-dialysis (ED). Figure E6.2 depicts a drip irriga-tion system with a desalination system that introducedPV as an energy resource.

In order to achieve the sustainable development ofdesert region communities, it is important to considertechnology innovation and to protect the communityand its environment. Maintaining community foodproduction is a further important issue.

Agriculture is inevitable for food supply and lack ofappropriate knowledge of agriculture often leads to soildegradation and wasting water, thus worsening deserti-fication. In this report, we propose different types ofirrigation systems using PV to save soil and water inarid and semi-arid areas. In addition, it is advisable toprovide an impact assessment of the climactic results ofintroducing VLS-PV into a desert region since a PVsystem will affect quality of life and food production inarid and semi-arid regions.

18

Energy from the Desert

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7.1 GENERAL CONCLUSIONS

The scope of this report is to examine and evaluate thepotential of VLS-PV systems, which have a capacityranging from several megawatts to gigawatts, and todevelop practical project proposals for demonstrativeresearch towards realizing VLS-PV systems in thefuture.

It is apparent that VLS-PV systems can contributesubstantially to global energy needs, are economicallyand technologically feasible, and can contribute consid-erably to environmental and socio-economicdevelopment. With the objective of ensuring thesecontributions and outlining the actions necessary forrealizing VLS-PV in the future, this report has devel-oped concrete project proposals.

When thinking about a practical project proposalfor achieving VLS-PV, a common objective is to find thebest sustainable solution. System capacity for suitabledevelopment is dependent upon each specific site withits own application needs and available infrastructure,especially access to long-distance power transmission,and human and financial resources

Although the impacts expected by VLS-PV willdiffer in each region, depending upon the local situa-tion, and upon any options and concerns, there areseveral conclusions in common.

Background

• World energy demands will increase as world energysupplies diminish due to trends in world populationand economic growth in the 21st century. In order tosave conventional energy supplies while supportinggrowth in economic activity, especially within devel-oping countries, new energy resources and relatedtechnologies must be developed.

• The potential amount of world solar energy that canbe harnessed is sufficient for global populationneeds during the 21st century. It has been forecastthat photovoltaic technology shows promise as amajor energy resource for the future.

• Much potential exists in the world’s desert areas. Ifappropriate approaches are found, they will providesolutions to the energy problem of those countriesthat are surrounded by deserts.

Technical aspects

• It has already been proven that various types of PVsystems can be applied for VLS-PV. PV technologiesare now considered to have reached the necessaryperformance and reliability levels for examining thefeasibility of VLS-PV.

• To clarify technical reliability and sustainability, astep-by-step approach will be required to achieveGW scale. This approach is also necessary for thesustainable funding scheme.

• Technology innovation will make VLS-PV in desertareas economically feasible in the near future.

• Global energy systems, such as hydrogen productionand high temperature super-conducting technology,as well as the higher conversion efficiency of PV cellsand modules, will make VLS-PV projects moreattractive.

Economic aspects

• The economic boundary conditions for VLS-PV arestill unsatisfactory at current PV system priceswithout supporting schemes, so that lowering theinvestment barrier, additional support, and/or higherfeed-in tariffs for large systems are still required.

19

7. Conclusions and

recommendations

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• VLS-PV using flat-plate PV modules or CPVmodules produced using mass production technolo-gies are expected to be an economically feasibleoption for installing large central solar electricgeneration plants in or adjacent to desert areas in thefuture as a replacement for central fossil-fuelledgenerating plants.

• Intelligent financing schemes such as higher feed-in-tariffs in developed countries, and internationalcollaboration schemes for promoting large scale PVor renewable energy in developing countries willmake VLS-PV economically feasible.

• For the sustainable development of VLS-PV, initialfinancial support programmes should be sufficientto completely finance the continued annualconstruction of VLS-PV plants and the replacementof old VLS-PV plants by new ones, eliminating theneed for any further investment after the initialfinancing is repaid.

Social aspects

• Renewable energy development is a promising wayof ensuring social development and is one of themost important policies in developing countries.

• VLS-PV projects can provide a pathway to settingup PV industry in the region, while the existence of atraditional and strong PV industry will provide anadditional factor contributing to an economic andpolitical environment that favours the application ofPV.

• International collaboration and institutional andorganizational support schemes will lead to thesuccess of VLS-PV projects in developing countries.

• Developing VLS-PV will become an internationallyattractive project, making the region and/or countrya leading country/region in the world.

• When we think about developing VLS-PV, weshould be careful to consider the social sustainabilityof the region – for instance, in terms of complement-ing agricultural practices and desert communitydevelopment.

Environmental aspects

• In light of global environmental problems, there is apractical necessity for renewable energy, and it isexpected to be an important option for the mid 21stcentury.

• A proper green area coupled with VLS-PV wouldpositively impact upon convective rainfall, ratherthan produce a negative impact due to a rise in sensi-ble and surface heat flux. It would also decrease duststorms, as well as reduce and mitigate CO2

emissions.

7.2 REQUIREMENTS FOR A PROJECT

DEVELOPMENT

VLS-PV is anticipated to be a very globally friendlyenergy technology, contributing to the social andeconomic development of the region in an environmen-tally sound manner.

However, concrete realization of VLS-PV projectsdepends upon successful negotiation between projectdevelopers and PV and electricity industries, and musthave the support of government regarding its accept-ance, sustainability and economic incentives.

In order to make negotiations successful and toestablish a VLS-PV project, approaches required forproject development are as follows:

• Clarify critical success factors on both technical andnon-technical aspects.

• Demonstrate technical capability and extendibility.• Demonstrate economic and financial aspects.• Show local, regional, and global environmental and

socio-economic effects.• Assess, analyse and allocate project risks such as

political and commercial risks.• Find available institutional and organizational

schemes.• Provide training programmes for installation, opera-

tion and maintenance.• Develop instructions or a guideline for these

approaches.

7.3 RECOMMENDATIONS

There are strong indications that VLS-PV could directlycompete with fossil fuel and with existing technology asthe principal source of electricity for any country thathas desert areas. This could be accomplished by findingan investment scheme and by getting institutional andorganizational support for its implementation.

In addition, the technology innovations regardingPV and global energy systems in the future will makeVLS-PV economically and technologically attractiveand feasible.

The following recommendations are outlined tosupport the sustainable growth of VLS-PV in the nearfuture:

• Discuss and evaluate future technical options forVLS-PV, including electricity network, storage andgrid management issues, as well as global renewableenergy systems.

• Analyse local, regional and global environmentaland socio-economic effects induced by VLS-PVsystems from the viewpoint of the whole life cycle.

• Clarify critical success factors for VLS-PV projects,on both technical and non-technical aspects, basedon experts’ experiences in the field of PV and large

20

Energy from the Desert

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scale renewable technology, including industry,project developers, investors and policy-makers.

• Develop available financial, institutional and organi-zational scenarios, and general instruction forpractical project proposals to realize VLS-PVsystems.

• The International Energy Agency (IEA) PVPScommunity will continue Task 8 activities. Experts

from the fields of grid planning and operation,desert environments, agriculture, finance and invest-ment should be involved.

• The IEA PVPS community welcomes non-membercountries to discuss the possibility of internationalcollaboration in IEA PVPS activities.

21

Conclusions and recommendations