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UAU212F Spring 2012
Throstur Thorsteinsson ([email protected]) 1
Sustainable Energy Options
UAU212F
ENERGY
Global and Iceland
Throstur Thorsteinsson [email protected]
Energy history milestones
⇨ Before 1700 – A Renewable Energy World: Biomass, Wind, Hydro
⇨ 1698 Thomas Savery - Steam-driven pump
⇨ 1711 Thomas Newcomen - Atmospheric piston-driven steam engine for
a pump
⇨ 1785 James Watt - More efficient, higher pressure, separated steam
engine – First to produce sufficient power for broadscale use
⇨ 1862 Beau de Rochas - Four-stroke reciprocating piston, spark-ignited
internal combustion engine
⇨ 1876 Baron Otto - Improved four-stroke reciprocating piston, spark-
ignited internal combustion engine
⇨ 1881 Brush Electric Light Co., Philadelphia - First electric power plant
⇨ 1892 Rudolph Diesel - Diesel engine
⇨ 1896 Henri Becquarel - Discovery of natural radioactivity
⇨ 1903 Fisk St. Sta., Commonwealth, Edison Co., Chicago - First steam
turbine-driven electric power plant
Energy history
⇨ 1932 James Chadwick - Discovery of the neutron
⇨ 1933 Irene and Frederic Joliot-Currie - Discovery of
artificial radioactivity
⇨ 1938 Otto Hahn, Lise Meitner and Fritz Strassemann -
Discovery of neutron-induced fission
⇨ 1942 Enrico Fermi - First man-made critical nuclear
reactor
⇨ 1951 Howard Zinn - First nuclear electricity produced,
by EBR-1
⇨ 1954 Hynan Rickover - First nuclear submarine, USS
Nautilus
⇨ 1958 Atomic Energy Commission First commercial
nuclear electric power plant, Shippingport
GLOBAL ENERGY
USE AND PRODUCTION
Energy use
⇨ In 2008, total worldwide energy consumption
was 474 exajoules ⇨ 474*1018 J
= 132,000 TWh.
⇨ 85% fossil fuel
OECD
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD ) dates back to 1960, when 18 European countries plus the United States and Canada joined forces to create an organisation dedicated to global development. Today 34 member countries (http://www.oecd.org).
UAU212F Spring 2012
Throstur Thorsteinsson ([email protected]) 2
Global OECD
Global
⇨ World total primary energy supply in 2009
Global 1973 and 2009
OECD 1973 and 2009 Share of energy sources in TPES
⇨ Shares of energy sources in total global primary
energy supply in 2008 (492 EJ).
UAU212F Spring 2012
Throstur Thorsteinsson ([email protected]) 3
Energy – past 60 years
Major Oil Trade movements 2010
Reserves to production in 2010
⇨ For fossil fuel at the end
of 2010
⇨ Reserves to production
ratio (R/P)
Year
s
Oil
Coal
Natural gas
Coal consumption 2010
Coal 2010
⇨ World proved reserves
sufficient to meet 118
years of global
production !
Fuel shares of electricity generation
UAU212F Spring 2012
Throstur Thorsteinsson ([email protected]) 4
Regional / Per capita energy use Primary Energy Use by Region
Pop / GDP / Energy Consumption Energy vs GDP
Source: BP (2011) Statistical Review of World Energy
Per capita average energy use 1999 Energy consumption per capita 2003
http://yearbook.enerdata.net/#/2010-energy-consumption-data.html
UAU212F Spring 2012
Throstur Thorsteinsson ([email protected]) 5
Energy consumption per capita 2010 Energy Intensity
⇨ Energy intensity is a measure
of the energy efficiency of a
nation's economy. It is
calculated as units of energy
per unit of GDP. ⇨ High energy intensities indicate
a high price or cost of
converting energy into GDP.
⇨ Low energy intensity indicates a
lower price or cost of
converting energy into GDP.
Climate concerns CO2 emission growth
Coal consumption
⇨ Grew by 7.6% in 2010
⇨ Share of global energy
consumption 29.6% ⇨ China share 48.2%
Potential emissions could result in GHG
concentration levels far above 600ppm CO2 emission from new cars
UAU212F Spring 2012
Throstur Thorsteinsson ([email protected]) 6
Renewable Energy
Sustainable future ...
Renewable Energy potential
Cost of RE
IPCC 2011
Prices go down
Technical advancements Renewable Energy and Sustainability
⇨ Historically, economic development has been
strongly correlated with increasing energy use
and growth of GHG emissions,
⇨ RE can help decouple that correlation,
contributing to sustainable development (SD).
UAU212F Spring 2012
Throstur Thorsteinsson ([email protected]) 7
RE & SD
⇨ RE can contribute to social and economic
development.
⇨ RE can help accelerate access to energy ⇨ particularly for the 1.4 billion people without access to
electricity and the additional 1.3 billion using
traditional biomass
⇨ RE options can contribute to a more secure
energy supply ⇨ although specific challenges for integration must be
considered
RE & SD & LCA
⇨ Lifecycle assessments (LCA) for electricity
generation indicate that GHG emissions from
RE technologies are, in general, significantly
lower than those associated with fossil fuel
options, ⇨ The median values for all RE range from 4 to 46 g
CO2eq/kWh while those for fossil fuels range from
469 to 1,001 g CO2eq/kWh (excluding land use
change emissions) ⇨ Figure SPM.8 in IPCC (2011) SRREN full report.
Renewable energy
Renewable energy
Renewables consumption
Summary Renewable Energy Availability
UAU212F Spring 2012
Throstur Thorsteinsson ([email protected]) 8
Feasibility - Issues
⇨ Geographical distribution ⇨ land use constraints – issue with all renewable ones
⇨ Variation of availability i. as a function of latitude (solar)
ii. location (hydro, geo, wind) – often feasible in very
remote areas, necessitates transport.
iii. Temporal availability (day/night – need batteries or some
means to store energy). Resources which do not have a
controllable output (solar, wind versus bio and hydro),
need storage or to be connected to the grid.
Feasibility – cont.
⇨ Low power density (thus require lots of land)
⇨ Risk
⇨ Environmental considerations; local vs. global
⇨ Price ⇨ Local environmental impact affects price
Energy flows in EJ 2008
Hydro Geoth Peat Coal Oil
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
PJ (petajoule)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Fraction
1 petajoule = 1015 joule = 0,278 TWst
Heimild: Orkustofnun 2004
TPES Iceland 1900 - 2003
Oil use in Iceland
Oil
us
e in
kil
oto
nn
es
UAU212F Spring 2012
Throstur Thorsteinsson ([email protected]) 9
Icelandic hydropower
⇨ Total harnessable
energy about 64 TWA
⇨ Total possible to use for
power generation - 30
TWA
⇨ Likely to be overstated
⇨ Current use about 7
TWA (23%), will
increase to 38% with
Kárahnjukar (4.5 TWA)
< 250
250 - 499
500 - 999
1000 - 2000
> 2000
GWst/ári
Beisluð
Óbeisluð
Í undirbúningi eða í byggingu
Hydropower
Iceland electricity production
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
'84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10
Geothermal
Oil
Hydropower
'83
TWh/year
Potential for Electricity Production (IS)
Proposed possibilities in Iceland
Hydro / Geo Electricity
generation
potential
Iceland
UAU212F Spring 2012
Throstur Thorsteinsson ([email protected]) 10
Electricity consumption Iceland
GWh in 2010
Geothermal heat use in Iceland 2010
House heating; 45.1
Electricity; 38.6
Swimming pools; 4.1
Snow melt; 3.7
Industry; 1.9 Fisheries; 4.2 Greenhouses; 1.7
Different energy sources Use of hydropower
⇨ 9 EJ
⇨ 2.3% of primary energy supply
⇨ 16.5% of all electricity
2001 data
Hydro production 2009
30 °C/km Heat generated due
to radioactive decay
Heat conducted and
advected to surface
Geothermal gradient
ranges from an
average of 30°C/km,
to 150°C/km in
geothermal areas.
Heimild: ÍSOR
Geothermal energy
UAU212F Spring 2012
Throstur Thorsteinsson ([email protected]) 11
Geothermal energy Available in most regions
⇨ El Salvador (22%) USA (0.5%)
⇨ Kenya (19%)
⇨ Iceland (17%)
Geothermal direct use to heat houses
(GWh / year)
Global biofuel production
Biomass
⇨ 11% of total world energy consumption.
⇨ In developing countries on average 35%
comes from biomass (19% in China) but in
very poor countries such as e.g. Bangladesh
biomass account for up to 90% of energy
supply.
Future
UAU212F Spring 2012
Throstur Thorsteinsson ([email protected]) 12
Future Fuel shares in 2035
1973 and 2009 World
final consumption
Biofuels production today amounts to about 3% of total transport fuel use.
World consumption
