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Energy and the Macroeconomy: the role of natural gas and the U.S. energy boom
Presentation by Prakash Loungani
Advisor, Research Department, IMF
Head of Commodities Team
The views expressed are those of the presenter and should not be attributed to the IMF.
Outline Takeaways
A. Oil & the Macroeconomy: New Developments since
Blanchard-Gali
B. Measuring Diversification
C. Impact of U.S. Energy
Boom
A. No longer about just oil: Diversification in sources
(natural gas; US energy boom)
B. Depend, but Diversify
C. Don’t Get Carried Away
by the Shale Gale
A. Oil & the Macroeconomy:
Some New Developments
• Diversification from increasing role of natural gas
• Boom in ‘unconventional energy’
Oil & the Macroeconomy:
A Slippery Relationship
“The macroeconomic impacts of oil shocks are
ignored [in the book]; this neglect is sensible
given the wide varieties of prevailing views
and the uncertainties about which results, if any,
are valid.”
-- Richard L. Gordon
(in a book review in The Energy Journal)
Two dominant views
Exogenous oil price shocks have played a key role in
nearly every post-WWII U.S. recession and remain an
important force even today
The importance of oil price shocks in causing the
1970s stagflation has been overstated.
Oil price increases today are driven by demand
increases in emerging markets and are different from
the oil shocks of the 1970s
A two-handed approach
Oil price shocks did play an important role in the
stagflation of the 1970s
But there have been changes since:
Our luck may have changed for the better
Real wages are less rigid
Monetary policy response is better
Share of oil in production & consumption is lower
Net result: oil price shocks have smaller effects on output and
inflation in the 2000s than in the 1970s (Blanchard & Gali, 2009;
Blanchard and Riggi, 2010)
Some new developments
Adding two elements to Blanchard-Gali view
More sources of energy
Role of natural gas
More sources of supply
Unconventional energy boom
Not discussed in this presentation but always lurking:
short-run effects—including through ‘uncertainty’
channel—from large supply disruptions
U.S. Energy Boom
B. Measuring Diversification
• Takeaway Message: “Depend, but Diversify” (meant to remind old-timers of “Trust, but Verify”)
Based on Cohen, Joutz and Loungani, Energy Policy, 2011 (with some updates)
Calls for energy ‘independence’
See Loungani (2009), “The Elusive Quest for Energy Independence,”
International Finance, for a review of these books
Indices of diversification in net imports
2
( ) *100i
i
NPICSI
C
max{0, }i ij ijNPI M X
Global Oil Diversification
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Oil Supply DI
Global Gas Diversification
5.0
7.0
9.0
11.0
13.0
15.0
17.0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Natural Gas Supply DI
Diversification index for oil
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
Den
mar
k
Can
ada
Aus
tralia
Uni
ted
Kin
gdom
Uni
ted
Stat
es
Fra
nce
New
Zea
land
Spai
n
Por
tuga
l
Ital
y
Net
herlan
ds
Ger
man
y
Kor
ea
Aus
tria
Irelan
d
Japa
n
Swed
en
Belgi
um
Tur
key
Gre
ece
Switze
rlan
d
Cze
ch R
epubl
ic
Fin
land
Polan
d
Hun
gary
Slov
ak R
epub
lic
Diversification index for natural gas
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
Den
mar
k
Net
herlan
ds
Uni
ted
Stat
es
Uni
ted
Kin
gdom
Fra
nce
Belgi
um Ital
y
Polan
d
Ger
man
y
Spai
n
Switze
rlan
d
Hun
gary
Aus
tria
Swed
en
Cze
ch R
epubl
ic
Gre
ece
Irelan
d
Por
tuga
l
Japa
n
Fin
land
Slov
akia
Diversification: the bottom-line
-
Natural Gas
Crude Oil
1 to 6 7 to 13 14 to 19
Ranking
Vulnerability Low Medium High
Low France, US, UK Spain, Portugal 1 to 8
Medium Italy
Austria,
Germany,
Japan, Ireland
Sweden
9 to 18
High Belgium, Poland Switzerland,
Hungary
Czech
Republic,
Finland,
Greece,
Slovak
Republic
19 to 26
Source: Cohen, Joutz and Loungani i, Energy Policy .
C. Impact of U.S. Energy Boom
• Takeaway Message:
“Don’t Get Carried Away by the Shale Gale”
--
Loungani and Matsumoto (forthcoming), Decoupling of Oil and Natural Gas Prices: Long Separation or
Permanent Split?
-- Celasun, Oya, Gabriel di Bella, Tim Mahedy, and Chris Papageorgiou (2014), “The US
Manufacturing Recovery: Uptick or Renaissance?”, IMF Working Paper 14/28.
-- U.S. 2012 Article IV consultation (July 2013),
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2013/cr13237.pdf
Co-movement of Oil & Gas Prices …
(index; 2005 = 100, January 1993 to December 2005)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
Gas
Oil
1a. United States: Gas, Oil
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
Gas
Oil
1b. Germany: Gas, Oil
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
United States
Germany
1c. Gas: United States, Germany
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
United States
Germany
1d. Oil: United States, Germany
Source: Loungani and Matsumoto, 2014
… but a decoupling since 2005 (index; 2005 = 100, January 2006 to February 2013)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Gas
Oil
2a. United States: Gas, Oil
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Gas
Oil
2b. Germany: Gas, Oil
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
United States
Germany
2c. Gas: United States, Germany
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
United States
Germany
2d. Oil: United States, Germany
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Statistic Office (Germany).
The U.S. Manufacturing Rebound …
…is not due solely to lower U.S.
natural gas prices
Two other factors:
The US real effective exchange rate has
depreciated over the last decade, in particular
against emerging-market currencies.
Unit labor costs in the US have decreased
relative to emerging markets.
Medium-Term Impact of U.S. Energy Boom on the U.S.
Impact on the United States (percent)
23 Source: IMF staff calculations.
Medium-term impact refers to impact after 13 years.
Global Economic Model (GEM) simulations:
increase in U.S. energy production over the next 12 years by 1.8% of GDP, cumulatively
Medium-Term Impact of U.S. Energy Boom on Others
24 Source: IMF staff calculations.
Medium-term impact refers to impact after 13 years.
Global Economic Model (GEM) simulations:
increase in U.S. energy production over the next 12 years by 1.8% of GDP, cumulatively
Impact on the Rest-of-World GDP (percent)
Thank you
& shameless self-promotion
Visit our website: http://www.imf.org/external/np/res/commod/index.aspx
Some of our products:
Commodities Market Monthly
http://www.imf.org/external/np/res/commod/pdf/monthly/060114.pdf
Commodities Price Outlook & Risks
http://www.imf.org/external/np/res/commod/pdf/cpor/2014/cpor0514.pdf
IMF Commodities Team: Prakash Loungani, Rabah Arezki, Akito Matsumoto,
Shane Streifel, Marina Rousset, Daniel Rivera Greenwood, Hites Ahir