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© OECD/IEA 2017 © OECD/IEA 2017
Energy and Development in Africa: insights from the World Energy Outlook
Laura CozziHead of World Energy Outlook Demand Division
© OECD/IEA 2017
GDP is rising, but almost half of a fast-growing population lives in extreme poverty: energy is vital to the prospects for development
Region accounts for 13% of global population, but only 4% of its energy demand: half of this is biomass causing severe health impact
Poor electricity infrastructure is a key impediment to economic growth and development
Large resource base, exploited only in part in the case of oil, gas & coal, largely untouched in renewables
Domestic energy reforms gaining speed, but the continent attracts less than 1% of global energy investment
The African energy context
© OECD/IEA 2017
30 – 80%
< 30%
Electricity access rate, 2014
> 80%
Around 600 million people do not have access to electricity in sub-Saharan Africa, but in 2014 the population without access declined for the first time.
The electricity access deficit persists
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2000 2004 2008 2012
mill
ion
Totalpopulation
Withoutaccess
Population with and without access in sub-Saharan Africa
Total population
Without access
© OECD/IEA 2017
Biomass remains central
Total primary energy demand in Africa
Reliance on fuelwood & charcoal remains high, even as incomes grow; 700 million people still cook with biomass in an inefficient & hazardous way in 2040
300 400 500Mtoe
100 200
Nuclear
Gas
Modern renewables
Coal
Oil
Biomass
2014
Additional demand in 2040
© OECD/IEA 2017
Power to shape the future
Installed power generation capacity by fuel in Africa
Power supply expands and diversifies: renewables, mainly solar and hydro, and natural gas drive the expansion
2014 capacity: 185 GW 2040 capacity: 563 GW
Coal23%
Oil19%Gas
39%
Nuclear1%
Hydro15%
Solar1%
2%
Other renewables
Coal14%
Oil8%
Gas40%
Nuclear1%
Hydro19%
Solar12%
6%Other renewables
© OECD/IEA 2017
New technologies can help unlock access
Cost reductions for low-carbon technologies, 2030 Sources of generation for achieving universal access to electricity in Africa, 2040
Technology cost decline, increased digitalization and new business models can unlock greater energy access, with negligible impact on global emissions
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
- 100 200
On-grid
Off- & mini-grid
TWh
Low-carbon
Fossil
© OECD/IEA 2017
Investment has to come home
Average annual investment in sub-Saharan energy supply
Fuels
Electricity
For export
For consumption withinsub-Saharan Africa:
In a reversal of current trends, 2 out of 3 future investment dollars produce energy for sub-Saharan consumers, but this is still not enough to meet their needs in full
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000-2014 2015-2040
Bill
ion
do
llars
(2
01
3)
⅓
⅔ ⅓
⅔
© OECD/IEA 2017
Conclusions
Energy is at the heart of strategies for economic growth, job creation and poverty eradication
Improvements in energy sector governance, regional co-operation, and capacity building key to bring in new energy investors
A unique alignment of international political will, technology cost reductions and new business models can accelerate energy access
Sub-Saharan Africa has the potential to leapfrog to a new development path fuelled by renewables and natural gas
IEA to continue to focus on Africa, including WEO special focus on energy and development (October 2017)