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Energy Alert – Second Long Term Clean Energy Auctions in Mexico
October 4, 2016
Page 2
Comparative: 1st vs 2nd Long Term Clean Energy Auctions in Mexico 20162 4
Executive Summary1 3
Details of final awarded projects3 6
Technology distribution and selected states4 7
Allocated amounts by technology5 8
Awarded nodes analysis6 9
Table of Contents
Second Long Term Clean Energy Auctions in Mexico 2016
EY Professionals7 10
Page 3
► The Second Long Term Clean Energy Auctions in Mexico 2016 promise to reach the goal of the Mexican Energy
Reform.
► The CENACE published the final list of awarded projects for the Second Long Term Clean Energy Auctions in Mexico
on September 28, 2016.
► A high degree of participation was achieved; 57 bidders submitted economic offers, of which 23 were awarded
projects, of a total of 326.
► 4 billion USD + 2.6 billion USD of the 1st auction will be invested.
► 34 generation companies will be established in Mexico.
Executive Summary
Multi-energy tender
A complex bid evaluation process with
regional adjustment of bid prices
Choice of payment indexation on Mexican
inflation or on a combination of Mexican
inflation, US inflation and MXN/USD FX rate
Bidders offer packages of up to 3 different
products
Bidders were allowed to offer a combined
package price for the totality of its offered
products
Counterpart: CFE subsidiary (Basicservice supplier)
Clearing House: corporate entity thatshall administer all contracts awardedthrough auctions
Bidders: foreign and local privateinvestors alongside CFE and Pemex(State productive companies)
September 30th 2016: Notification of
selected Sale Offers to each Bidder
January 30th 2017: SPV
Incorporation
January 31st 2017: Contract
subscription
Key Aspects Participants in auction Next important dates
Source: CENACE, CRE and EY analysis
Second Long Term Clean Energy Auctions in Mexico 2016
► FX MXP/USD = $18
Page 4
Comparative: 1st vs 2nd Long Term AuctionScenario 1: Based on weighted formula of Auctions Manual
► The previous table shows the final numbers considering the weighted formula established under the“Long Term Auction Manual” (in spanish, “Manual de Subastas de Largo Plazo”).
► As per the above statement, a reduction of 31% in the average Price per offer of Clean Energy wasmade (Energy + CEL), as compared to the 1st LT Auction.
► 38% of threshold optimization, which corresponds to the average optimization of CFE Basic ServiceSuppliers Purchase Offer.
Source: CENACE and EY analysis
Second Long Term Clean Energy Auctions in Mexico 2016
Capacity (USD/MW)Cumulative Energy
(USD/MWh)CEL (USD/CEL)
Demand –Counterpart
Purchase Offer
Amount 1,483.00 10,629,911.00 10,629,911.00
Max. Price $ 93,817.00 $ 41.70 $ 20.85
Avg. Price $ 73,489.98 $ 34.75 $ 17.55
Awarded in 2nd Long Term Auction
Amount 1,187.16 8,909,819.30 9,275,534.00
Max. Price $ 54,973.95 $ 26.47 $ 19.52
Avg. Price $ 29,439.06 $ 20.28 $ 13.08
% Awarded 80.05% 83.82% 87.26%
% Demand Max. $/ Awarded Avg. $
31.38% 48.63% 62.72%
1st Long Term Auction
Amount - 5,402,880.50 5,380,911.00
Max. Price $ - $ 43.72 $ 21.86
Avg. Price $ - $ 31.99 $ 16.44
► FX MXP/USD = $18
Page 5
Comparative: 1st vs 2nd Long Term AuctionScenario 2: Based on more conservative Capacity price
► The previous table shows the final numbers, using a weighted formula suggested by EY specialists.
► As per the above statement, a reduction of 32% in the average Price per offer of Clean Energy wasmade (Energy + CEL), as compared to the 1st LT Auction.
► 38% of threshold optimization, which corresponds to the average optimization of CFE Basic ServiceSuppliers Purchase Offer.
Source: CENACE and EY analysis
Second Long Term Clean Energy Auctions in Mexico 2016
Capacity (USD/MW)Cumulative Energy
(USD/MWh)CEL (USD/CEL)
Demand –Counterpart
Purchase Offer
Amount 1,483.00 10,629,911.00 10,629,911.00
Max. Price $ 93,817.00 $ 41.70 $ 20.85
Avg. Price $ 73,489.98 $ 34.75 $ 17.55
Awarded in 2nd Long Term Auction
Amount 1,187.16 8,909,819.30 9,275,534.00
Max. Price $ 54,973.95 $ 25.79 $ 21.14
Avg. Price $ 25,823.96 $ 18.00 $ 15.15
% Awarded 80.05% 83.82% 87.26%
% Demand Max. $/ Awarded Avg. $
27.53% 43.16% 72.67%
1st Long Term Auction
Amount - 5,402,880.50 5,380,911.00
Max. Price $ - $ 43.72 $ 21.86
Avg. Price $ - $ 31.99 $ 16.44
► FX MXP/USD = $18
Page 6
Details of final awarded projects
Source: CENACE and EY analysis
Second Long Term Clean Energy Auctions in Mexico 2016
# NameAwarded
bidsPricing Area Technology
$ Annual Offer(USD)
Capacity(MW-year)
Cum. Energy(MWh)
CEL
1 Parque Eólico Reynosa III, S.A.P.I de C.V. 2 Reynosa Wind $ 60,144,563.11 - 1,613,416.80 1,613,416.00
2 Parque Eólico El Mezquite, S.A.P.I de C.V. 3 Monterrey Wind $ 34,138,371.30 76.74 820,635.81 774,938.00
3 Eolica de Oaxaca S.A.P.I. de C.V. 1 Ixtepec Wind $ 31,811,645.85 - 818,264.52 818,264.00
4 Comisión Federal de Electricidad 2 Carapan and CananeaGeothermal and Combined Cycle $ 29,663,639.61 399.98 198,764.40 198,764.00
5 Alten Energías RenovablesMéxico Cuatro, S.A. de C.V. 6 Aguascalientes Solar Photovoltaic $ 29,004,025.56 74.59 722,043.79 812,417.00
6 Consorcio Fotowatio 2 Saltillo Solar Photovoltaic $ 22,379,235.39 - 779,161.60 779,161.00
7 AT Solar 3 Hermosillo Solar Photovoltaic $ 19,582,448.51 29.00 478,260.96 478,260.00
8 Quetzal Energía México S.A.P.I. de C.V. 2 Moctezuma Solar Photovoltaic $ 15,077,500.28 - 393,611.32 393,611.00
9 Enel Green Power México, S. de R.L. de C.V. 1 Reynosa Wind $ 13,589,573.44 - 399,129.86 399,129.00
10 Kamet Energía México, S.A.P.I de C.V. 2 Hermosillo Solar Photovoltaic $ 13,575,058.11 - 353,466.00 353,466.00
11 FRONTERA MÉXICO GENERACIÓN S DE RL DE CV 5 Reynosa Combined Cycle $ 12,266,052.67 474.93 - -
12 X-Elio Energy, S.L. 2 Juárez Solar Photovoltaic $ 10,984,139.17 30.00 363,137.04 363,136.00
13 Consorcio ENGIE Solar Trompezon 1 Aguascalientes Solar Photovoltaic $ 10,889,268.60 - 342,629.62 338,851.00
14 OPDE 4 Laguna Solar Photovoltaic $ 9,584,863.52 - 289,509.10 289,508.00
15 Bluemex Power 1 S.A. de C.V. 1 Obregón Solar Photovoltaic $ 9,456,626.73 - 249,982.32 249,982.00
16 Consorcio SMX 3 Aguascalientes Solar Photovoltaic $ 9,281,416.28 10.00 278,357.76 563,973.76
17 TRACTEBEL ENERGIA DE ALTAMIRA, S. DE R.L. DE C.V. 1 Güemez Wind $ 8,882,696.95 21.62 223,010.76 223,010.00
18 HQ Mexico Holdings, S. de R.L. de C.V. 3 Laguna Solar Photovoltaic $ 8,088,001.11 18.30 252,444.87 252,444.00
19 Consorcio Guanajuato 1 Querétaro Solar Photovoltaic $ 5,341,362.02 12.00 146,957.76 146,957.00
20 ENERGIA SIERRA JUAREZ HOLIDNG S DE RL DE CV 2 Mexicali Solar Photovoltaic $ 3,807,377.29 - 114,115.90 117,064.00
21 GREEN HUB S DE RL DECV 1 Querétaro Solar Photovoltaic $ 2,617,057.50 10.00 72,919.11 72,919.00
22 GENERADORA FENIX SAPI DE CV 6 Central Hidropower $ 2,448,098.80 - - 314,631.00
23 Energía Renovable de la Península, S.A.P.I. de C.V. 2 Mérida Wind $ 987,392.00 30.00 - -
Page 7
Technology distribution for awarded projects and selected States
Wind
Hydropower
53%41%
2% 4%
54%44%
2%
15%
11%
2%72%
Source: CENACE and EY analysis
Second Long Term Clean Energy Auctions in Mexico 2016
Solar
CEL
Cumulative Energy
Capacity
Selected States in 2nd Auction
Selected Sates (1st + 2nd Auction)
Geothermal
Combined Cycle
► 1 Sonora
► 2 Baja California
► 3 Baja California Sur
► 4 Tamaulipas
► 5 Oaxaca
► 6 Chihuahua
► 7 Michoacán
► 8 Coahuila de Zaragoza
► 9 Aguascalientes
► 10 Guanajuato
► 11 Nuevo León
► 12 Yucatán
► 13 San Luis Potosí
► 14 Morelos
► 15 Jalisco
1
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
9
10
11
1213
14
15
2
Page 8
Allocated amounts by technology
26%
CEL Cumulative Energy Capacity
Awarded
Initial
Purchase
Offer
Not Awarded AwardedNot Awarded AwardedNot Awarded
WindGeothermalCombined Cycle
(CCGT)Hydropower Solar
26%
16%
45%
36%
2%
100%
26%
20%
100%
12%
9%
2%
57%
13%
100%
46%
36%
2%
3%
► CEL 9.27M CELs
► Cumulative Energy 8.90 TWh
► Capacity 1,187.16 MW
Source: CENACE
Second Long Term Clean Energy Auctions in Mexico 2016
Initial
Purchase
Offer
Initial
Purchase
Offer
Page 9
Awarded nodes analysis
Awarded Energy
(GWh)
Source: CENACE, PRODESEN and EY analysis
Second Long Term Clean Energy Auctions in Mexico 2016
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Aguascalientes
Carapan
Güemez
Hermosillo
Ixtepec
Juárez
Laguna
Mexicali
Moctezuma
Monterrey
Obregón
Querétaro
Reynosa
Saltillo
Puebla
LMP range (min - max)USD/MWh
4b.
338
1,558
4,025
439
499
1,595
787
231
932
387
1,636
1,633
446
397
2,931
Clean Energy Average Price
► FX MXP/USD = $18 for Clean Energy Average Price
1. X-Elio Energy, S.L.
2. Consorcio Fotowatio
3a. Enel Green Power México, S. de
R.L. de C.V.
3b. Parque Eólico Reynosa III, S.A.P.I
de C.V.
4a. GREEN HUB S DE RL DE CV
4b. Consorcio Guanajuato
5. Bluemex Power 1 S.A. de C.V.
6. Parque Eólico El Mezquite, S.A.P.I
de C.V.
7. Quetzal Energía México S.A.P.I. de
C.V.
8. ENERGIA SIERRA JUAREZ
HOLIDNG S DE RL DE CV
9a. HQ Mexico Holdings, S. de R.L. de
C.V.
9b. OPDE
11. X-Elio Energy, S.L.
12. Eolica de Oaxaca S.A.P.I. de C.V.
13a. Kamet Energía México, S.A.P.I de
C.V.
13b. AT Solar
14. TRACTEBEL ENERGIA DE
ALTAMIRA, S. DE R.L. DE C.V.
15. Comisión Federal de Electricidad
15a. Consorcio SMX
15b. Consorcio ENGIE Sola Trompezon
15c. OPDE
15d. Alten Energías
Renovables México Cuatro, S.A.
de C.V.
1.
2.
3a. 3b.
4a.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9a.
11.
12.
13a.
14.
15.
15a. 15b.
9b.
13b.
15c. 15d.
Page 10
José Salas
Partner - Advisory
EY Mexico
Tel: +52 (55) 1101 7329
Email: [email protected]
Rafael Aguirre
Partner - Transaction Advisory Services
EY Mexico
Tel: +52 (55) 5283 8650
Email: [email protected]
Alfredo Álvarez
Partner - Energy Segment Leader
EY Mexico
Tel: +52 (55) 5283 1179
Email: [email protected]
Rodrigo Fernández
Partner - Transaction Tax
EY Mexico
Tel: +52 (55) 5283 8666
E-mail: [email protected]
Second Long Term Clean Energy Auctions in Mexico 2016
EY Proffesionals
Paul Roberti
Executive Director - Power & Utilities
EY Mexico
Tel: +52 (55) 5283 8666
E-mail: [email protected]
Loic LeGall
Executive Director - Power & Utilities
EY Mexico
Tel: +52 (55) 4094 6488
E-mail: [email protected]
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