End of PC’s?

New world of information society! Integration of the two worlds.

Collapse of time, space.

Possibilities

A c tiv itie s

T im e

P o ss ib ili t ie

A c tu a lly d o n e

E-business

B2B E-Business (in mrld $)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Ostanek sveta Azija/Pacifik Evropa Severna Amerika

Information growthInform ation explosion

-20 0 20 40 60 80 100

Casopisi

Knjige

Periodika

CD

Fotografije

DVD

PC diski

Strezniki

rast v %

Romania

Bulgaria

Lithuania

Poland

Slovakia

Greece

Latvia

Portugal

Spain

Italy

Czech R.

Hungary

France

Slovenia

Estonia

Ireland

Germany

EU15

Luxembourg

Belgium

Austria

United Kingdom

Netherlands

Denmark

Sw eden

Finland

-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

S-distance (in years): - time lead, + time lag

Information Society – the major issue"Study: Net Fueling Global Job Boom" E-Commerce Times (08/29/00); Enos, Lori   Jobs created by the Internet economy in the United States and six European countries will exceed 10 million by 2002, concludes a new study, "Internet Enabled Job Creation and the Digital Revolution," from Andersen Consulting. The study reports that the Internet will be the cause of 3 million jobs in Spain, Italy, France, Germany, Ireland, and the United Kingdom, and 5.8 million jobs in the United States by 2002. Internet-related industries will create an additional 2 million jobs. http://www.ecommercetimes.com/news/articles2000/000829-1.shtml Democratic presidential nominee Al Gore this week on his Web site released an economic plan to create 10 million new high-tech jobs over the next 10 years by focusing on IT training initiatives. Under Gore's plan companies would receive a $6,000 tax credit per worker for IT training. The plan also calls for a tax credit of as much as $2,800 for expenses related to higher education. Gore says his job plan would encourage favorable policies for the high-tech and e-commerce industries. Noting that the IT market has accounted for almost a third of U.S. economic growth in recent years, Gore says the government and private industry should both strive to "make the Internet as common as the telephone."

Economy – IS one of major issues

"Greenspan Upbeat on Technology" Washington Post (08/26/00) P. E1; Berry, John M.

 Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, cited technology as the main reason for the continued growth of productivity in the United States. Greenspan said, "The most recent wave of technology has engendered a pronounced rise in American rates of return on high-tech investments, which has led to a stepped-up pace of capital [spending] and increased productivity growth." He also noted that technology has improved trade and the integration of the world's economies. … 6 percent for the 12-month period ended this June. This growth continues to amaze economists, who did not expect to see such prolonged growth without an accompanying rise in inflation. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A27424-2000Aug25.html

 

Overseas Tech Jobs ProliferateIS one of major promoters of progress

"San Francisco Chronicle (06/01/03) P. I1; Zuckerman, Sam; Kirby, Carrie: The attraction of transferring technology operations overseas where labor is cheaper, and is transforming Silicon Valley and eroding its role as a low-end software developer. Forrester reckons that 3.3 million service-sector positions--approximately 473,000 computer industry jobs among them--will migrate to nations such as India, the Philippines, China, and Russia by 2015. Marc Hebert of Sierra Atlantic predicts that in several years' time 50% of all Silicon Valley software firms will keep only 20% of their technical personnel in the United States, while the 80% that account for software support and maintenance will move offshore. Although saving money is the primary reason companies are moving tech projects overseas, another major lure is the increasing proficiency and productivity of foreign computer scientists and engineers. … is "a serious economic threat to American workers," while advocates counter that outsourcing is an inevitable consequence of the global economy, one that gives American businesses room to expand both inside and outside the United States.  

 

Needs for IT Workers

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Needed IT workers in Western Europe in millions

USA Visas for IT Workers

1990 66,000

1998 115,000

2000 200,000

Table 1: USA visas  

 

BASIC I.S. LAWS Moore’s law (exponential growth ) Metcalf’s law: value(network) = square(no. of nodes) Sidgemor’s law (exponential growth of net traffic) Andreesen … net capitalism = frictionless economy

ZAKONI INFORMACIJSKE DRUŽBE

mMetcalfe's Law - value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of nodes

Put on the Internet all your information and information activitiesThe Internet is the major source of knowledge (Google, databases,

information sources) The cyber-world doubles fortuneSide effects of information society include information overload and

unemploymentInformation society demands intensive information knowledge for successful leadershipInformation society belongs to all of usThe Internet is the most democratic and free media in the worldThe Internet and information society are our hope for the future

Background - Information Society

new breed/generation new technology, old

thinking nothing new last year? predicting the future

What is new? Info <> material 1 page of bits?

No smell, no mass papers Trillions of bits travel daily Generation gaps TCP/IP 1 mail – many peaces

distributed, very robust Everybody has access to the

whole world in both directions Multimedia – speech, NLU Law – pornography E-money

order through Web

Privacy? Viruses (2000 emails), worms, spying http://izum.izum.si/scripts/br?lang=win

Kids help grand.. Owning the Web

Trends of progress

Information society:quick changes,from local to global, non-determined world,

Infosphere:handling information

Which info to handle?

Mass media – daily papers, weekly journals … (paper)

Scientific/popular journals Books, manuals …

------------- paper --------------- TV, teletext, interactive TV Computer (Intranet, Extranet,

Internet, local connections)-------------- electronic ---------

Human comm.

Examples of mass deceptions: - politicians- boxing- p. games

Predicting the future 1876: telephones

are useless In 1950: by 2000

super-intelligent computer(much faster HW)

1950: the whole world needs 10 computers

In 1960: by 1980 home robots

1977: there will be no home computers

Average human will live to 100 y.

New products

Intelligent house int.

housekeeping int. car

services ... business TV-computer Media/speech/

understanding

Napster, movies Internet guides

local-global Education – MIT Encyclopedia Games –

through the Internet

Generation no. Generation name Major occupation

I. Machine-level Hardware

II. Programming Writing programs

III. ToolsData, text manipulation

IV.Information society

Information services, Internet

Another Saturation Soon! Computer Generations

Generation no. Generation name Main object

I. Agrarian Food

II. Industrial Production

III. Post-industrial Services

IV. Information Information

Human Generations

Generation name

Duration Comm. Speed

Agrarian 3000-5000 years 3-5 km/h human

Industrial 300-500 30-50 horse, car

Post-industrial 30-50 300-500 airplane

Information 3-53000-5000 network

IS Impact on Humans (Lewis)

Human Saturation Info clock << biological clock

Terminal velocity Conflict between biological and information clock Humans can’t cope with information overflow Solution:

WE NEED

INTELLIGENT ASSISTANTS

Generation no. Generation name Status

I. Machine-level Slave

II. Programming Slave

III. Tools Slave

IV.Information society Assistant

Computer Generations

Major problems

lack of true intelligence

trust

unemployment

Table 1: USA visas  

 

Discussion Information society – a great

opportunity for IT educated technological, human, social

Intelligent assistants - SW generation with some degree of freedom when executing tasks

We need information society to progress – and not to lag behind

Personally – a great decision!

Possibilities

A c tiv itie s

T im e

P o ss ib ili t ie

A c tu a lly d o n e