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En-ROADS Review
Andrew Jones, Lori Siegel, Jack Homer, and John Sterman
November 26, 2014
Agenda• Welcome, Introductions and Context• Model background• Operating the model (brief
demonstration of reference scenario)
• Model structure, reference scenario vs. data, and policy/sensitivity testing
• Questions, comments, and “what-ifs”
• How to proceed
Model Development Team for En-ROADS
Dr. Tom Fiddaman, Ventana SystemsDr. Jack Homer, Homer ConsultingAndrew Jones, Climate InteractiveDr. Phil Rice, Climate InteractiveDr. Beth Sawin, Climate InteractiveDr. Lori Siegel, Climate InteractiveStephanie McCauley, Climate InteractiveProf. John Sterman, MIT System Dynamics Group
• Purpose of the External Review:• Assessment from experts of En-ROADS’
appropriateness relative to its purpose• Determine areas for improvement
• Purpose of En-ROADS:• Improve understanding of important energy,
land use, and climate dynamics among non-scientists as a means to effective action by:
• Policymakers• Educators• The Public
Purposes
Building Confidence in This Simulation
• Policy relevance• Evidence-based structure and parameters• Fit to history• Reference run compared with others’
projections and structurally explained• Policy/sensitivity results, structurally
explained
The Simulation in Action
What global changes over the next decade do you think are required and possible to drive the energy transition?
* As a driver of energy demand, not technological innovation or investment
** New Zero C: technological innovation leading to a new zero carbon energy supply, such as Thorium fission
Population and Economic Growth*
Energy Efficiency and
Demand
Energy Supply
Other
Population growth
No changeDecrease Increase
GDP per capita
Mobile
Stationary
No change
Modestincrease
Big increase
Coal
Oil
Gas
Solar & Wind
Biofuels
New Zero C**
Nuclear
CCS
No changeLess More
No change $/ton
Achieved by (year)
Land use emissions
Other green- house gases
No change
Small decrease
Big decrease
Carbon price
like methane & N2O
Other Policy and Regulatory
(Example Handout for Workshop Participants)
• EMF Model Suite• BP Energy Outlook• HYDE (PBL)• US EIA WEO• LBL• HADCRUT• IPCC
Incorporate structure, equations, and data from diverse research teams
DOE UN IEA GISS CDIAC NCDC NOAA MIT EPPA V. Smil Maddison Houghton
Historical DataGDP Hyde energy consumption by fuel type, 1925-1965.
Hyde historical data for Kaya identity, 1800-2000
Total Final Energy Demand
Hyde energy consumption by fuel type, 1925-1965 Hyde historical data for Kaya identity, 1800-2000WEO 2012 data for final and primary energy by source, 1990-2035BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2014
Electricity production
WEO 2012 data for final and primary energy by source, 1990-2035
CO2 emissions from energy
Hyde energy consumption by fuel type, 1925-1965 Hyde historical data for Kaya identity, 1800-2000WEO 2012 data for final and primary energy by source, 1990-2035
Primary Energy Demand by Source
WEO 2012 data for final and primary energy by source, 1990-2035
Energy Intensity World Resources Institute (2011), US Energy Information Administration (2014), International Energy Agency (2011), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (1998)
Published ProjectionsProjected Energy Mix, GHG emissions, atmospheric concentrations, and temperature
Energy Information Agency (EIA) International Energy Outlook 2014World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2012Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)Hyde 2010British Petroleum (BP) Statistical Review of World Energy 20104
Projected Population
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2014). World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, CD-ROM Edition. Medium, Low, and High Scenarios.
Energy Prices British Petroleum (BP) Statistical Review of World Energy 20104Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release 2013
Studies on Carbon-Temperature DynamicsCarbon Cycle and Temperature
Bolin, B. 1986. Fiddaman. T.S. 1997. Nordhaus, W. D. 1992, 1994, 2000 Goudriaan, J. and P. Ketner. 1984. Oeschger, H., U. Siegenthaler, et al. 1975.Rotmans, J. 1990. Schwartz, S.E. 2007. Schneider, S.H., and S.L. Thompson. 1981. Wullschleger, S. D., W. M. Post, et al. 1995.
Studies Providing Key Parameter EstimatesCommercialization Time
Akiner, S. & Aldis, A. (2004) Smil,V. (2006)
Progress Ratios Junginger, M., et al. (2010)McDonald, A., Schrattenholzer, L (2001)
Non-Renewable Energy Resources
IPCC. (2007)World Energy Council. (2010)
Renewable Energy Resources
IPCC. (2011)Jacobson, M. Z. (2009)
Construction Materials
J. Sullivan, et al. (2010)Kris R. Voorspools, et al. (2000)
Development Time Jacobson, M. Z. (2009)US Department of Energy (2008)
Construction Time Jacobson, M. Z. (2009)US Department of Energy (2008)
Lifecycle Emissions Hiroki, H. (2005)White, S. & Kulcinski, G. (1998)
Building Efficiency US Department of Energy (2011)
Transportation US Bureau of Transportation Statistics (2011)
En-ROADS and C-ROADS Scope
Other GHG emissions
Population and
GDP/capita(1 or 6
regions)
En-ROADSSystem of Energy/Economics/Climate
Land use
Energy Demand, Supply, and Prices
Technology and Policies
CO2 emissions
GHG cycles
Climate Tempera-ture
C-ROADS
Other forcings
Impacts(pH, SLR)
GHG emissionsby regions
GHG emissions
Simulation Demonstration
Overview of Structure and Reference Scenario
Assumptions
En-ROADS Simulation Structure
Energy Supply• Carbon intensity by source• Costs, learning, R&D
success, complementary assets, resource availability
Energy Demand• Energy intensity• Stationary & mobile• Elec & Non-elec• Aging, efficiency, &
retrofits
Economy• GDP/capita• Population
Climate• Emissions• Concen-
trations• Temp.• Sea level
rise
GHGs emissions and removals• Other gases • Land use CO2
EnergyCO2
EmissionsPolicies andScenarios• Carbon price• Subsidies/Tax• Tech.
breakthrough
PricesMarket-clearing
Utilization
Hydro
Nuclear
Stationary• Electric• Non-Elec
Mobile• Electric• Non-Elec
ElectricityProduction•Elec thermal •CCS•Renewables•Hydro•New Tech•Nuclear
Nonelectric Consumption
s
Oil
NaturalGas
Coal
Biofuels
Extracted Fuels
s
Oil
NaturalGas
Coal
Biofuels
Delivered Fuels Carriers Demand
Renewables (Solar, Wind, Geothermal)
New Tech
En-ROADS Energy Flows
En-ROADS, though aggregate, captures realistic energy/economy dynamics
1. Separate pricing of 4 fuel types (extracted/spot, delivered) and electricity
2. Short-term and long-term consumer responses to price: curtailment, rebound, energy efficiency, choice of fuels and electricity
3. Extracted fuel prices fluctuate via endogenous commodity cycle4. Delivered fuel prices affected by extracted prices, but more stable5. Electricity source decisions based largely on cost comparison, but
also network complementarities and performance standards6. Learning curves reduce energy production costs7. Time delays (and possible “overheating”) in building new supply
capacity8. Fossil fuel production costs increased by resource depletion9. Other production costs (biofuel, hydro, renewables) potentially
increased by flow limits
• In the reference scenario, extracted fuel prices are set equal to their historical values during 1990-2013, and change endogenously thereafter. • It is possible to reproduce the cyclical nature of extracted prices
broadly but not all of the historical ups and downs
• 1990-2013 energy volumes, which we want to reproduce, are affected by extracted prices
• We want to give the model the proper head start to produce plausible future cycles; without that head start, the 2013 disequilibrium is muffled and the future cycles are less prominent as a result
• The reference scenario assumes no carbon pricing or other policy interventions
• UN medium population scenario
• Growth in GDP per capita at a decreasing rate
Reference Scenario Assumptions
• Kaya Variables• Compared with EMF suite to 2100
• Energy Supply by Source• Compared with WEO to 2020
• Energy Prices by Source• Fossil fuel prices compared with EIA to 2040
Reference Scenario Results
Kaya Variables to 2100 vs. EMF27
GDP Comparisons to EMF
700
525
350
175
0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Time (Year)
T$U
S20
10/Y
ear
EMF27 Ref GDP[EMF27 BET] : RefEMF27 Ref GDP[EMF27 EC IAM] : RefEMF27 Ref GDP[EMF27 FARM] : RefEMF27 Ref GDP[EMF27 GCAM] : RefEMF27 Ref GDP[EMF27 GRAPE] : RefEMF27 Ref GDP[EMF27 IMACLIM] : RefEMF27 Ref GDP[EMF27 IMAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref GDP[EMF27 MERGE] : RefEMF27 Ref GDP[EMF27 MESSAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref GDP[EMF27 POLES] : RefEMF27 Ref GDP[EMF27 REMIND] : RefEMF27 Ref GDP[EMF27 TIAM WORLD] : RefEMF27 Ref GDP[EMF27 WITCH] : RefEn-ROADS GDP
Global GDP to 2100
Energy Intensity Comparisons to EMF
20
15
10
5
0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Time (Year)
EJ/
T$U
S20
10
EMF27 Ref energy intensity of GDP[EMF27 BET] : RefEMF27 Ref energy intensity of GDP[EMF27 EC IAM] : RefEMF27 Ref energy intensity of GDP[EMF27 FARM] : RefEMF27 Ref energy intensity of GDP[EMF27 GCAM] : RefEMF27 Ref energy intensity of GDP[EMF27 GRAPE] : RefEMF27 Ref energy intensity of GDP[EMF27 IMACLIM] : RefEMF27 Ref energy intensity of GDP[EMF27 IMAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref energy intensity of GDP[EMF27 MERGE] : RefEMF27 Ref energy intensity of GDP[EMF27 MESSAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref energy intensity of GDP[EMF27 POLES] : RefEMF27 Ref energy intensity of GDP[EMF27 REMIND] : RefEMF27 Ref energy intensity of GDP[EMF27 TIAM WORLD] : RefEMF27 Ref energy intensity of GDP[EMF27 WITCH] : RefEn-ROADS Total Primary Energy Intensity of GDP
Energy Intensity to 2100
Energy Comparisons to EMF
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Time (Year)
EJ/
Yea
r
EMF27 Ref Total energy primary equiv[EMF27 BET] : RefEMF27 Ref Total energy primary equiv[EMF27 EC IAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Total energy primary equiv[EMF27 FARM] : RefEMF27 Ref Total energy primary equiv[EMF27 GCAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Total energy primary equiv[EMF27 GRAPE] : RefEMF27 Ref Total energy primary equiv[EMF27 IMACLIM] : RefEMF27 Ref Total energy primary equiv[EMF27 IMAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Total energy primary equiv[EMF27 MERGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Total energy primary equiv[EMF27 MESSAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Total energy primary equiv[EMF27 POLES] : RefEMF27 Ref Total energy primary equiv[EMF27 REMIND] : RefEMF27 Ref Total energy primary equiv[EMF27 TIAM WORLD] : RefEMF27 Ref Total energy primary equiv[EMF27 WITCH] : RefEn-ROADS Primary Energy Equiv Demand
Energy Use to 2100
Carbon Intensity Comparisons to EMF
80
60
40
20
0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Time (Year)
MtC
O2/
EJ
EMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of energy[EMF27 BET] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of energy[EMF27 EC IAM] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of energy[EMF27 FARM] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of energy[EMF27 GCAM] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of energy[EMF27 GRAPE] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of energy[EMF27 IMACLIM] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of energy[EMF27 IMAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of energy[EMF27 MERGE] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of energy[EMF27 MESSAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of energy[EMF27 POLES] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of energy[EMF27 REMIND] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of energy[EMF27 TIAM WORLD] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of energy[EMF27 WITCH] : RefEn-ROADS Carbon Intensity of Primary Energy
Carbon Intensity of Energy to 2100
Carbon Intensity of GDP Comparisons to EMF
.7
.525
.35
.175
0
2000 2015 2030 2045 2060 2075 2090Time (Year)
GtC
O2/
T$U
S20
10
EMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of GDP[EMF27 BET] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of GDP[EMF27 EC IAM] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of GDP[EMF27 FARM] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of GDP[EMF27 GCAM] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of GDP[EMF27 GRAPE] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of GDP[EMF27 IMACLIM] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of GDP[EMF27 IMAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of GDP[EMF27 MERGE] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of GDP[EMF27 MESSAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of GDP[EMF27 POLES] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of GDP[EMF27 REMIND] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of GDP[EMF27 TIAM WORLD] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of GDP[EMF27 WITCH] : RefEn-ROADS Average Carbon Intensity of GDP
Carbon Intensity of GDP to 2100
CO2 from Energy Comparisons to EMF
100
75
50
25
0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Time (Year)
GtC
O2/
Yea
r
EMF27 Ref FF CO2 emissions[EMF27 BET] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 emissions[EMF27 EC IAM] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 emissions[EMF27 FARM] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 emissions[EMF27 GCAM] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 emissions[EMF27 GRAPE] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 emissions[EMF27 IMACLIM] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 emissions[EMF27 IMAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 emissions[EMF27 MERGE] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 emissions[EMF27 MESSAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 emissions[EMF27 POLES] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 emissions[EMF27 REMIND] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 emissions[EMF27 TIAM WORLD] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 emissions[EMF27 WITCH] : RefEn-ROADS CO2 Emissions from Energy
CO2 Emissions from Energy to 2100
Energy Supply by Source to 2020 vs. WEO
Fuel Production to 2020
INCLUDES• Renewables
e.g., solar, wind, geothermal • HydroEXCLUDES • Bio
Primary Energy from Coal
200
150
100
50
0
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018Time (Year)
EJ/
Yea
r
EnROADSWEO
BPEIA
Primary Energy from Oil
300
225
150
75
0
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018Time (Year)
EJ/
Yea
r
EnROADSWEO
BPEIA
Primary Energy from Gas
200
150
100
50
0
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018Time (Year)
EJ/
Yea
r
EnROADSWEO
BPEIA
Primary Energy from Nuclear
40
30
20
10
0
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018Time (Year)
EJ/
Yea
r
EnROADSWEO
BPEIA
Primary Energy from Renew
90
67.5
45
22.5
0
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018Time (Year)
EJ/
Yea
r
EnROADS WEO
Note: Blue line = En-ROADS outputRed dots represent single data points from WEO 2012.
Note: Blue line = En-ROADS outputRed dots represent single data points from WEO 2012.
Main
Final Energy from NonElec Oil
200
150
100
50
0
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018Time (Year)
EJ/
Yea
r
EnROADS WEO
Final Energy from NonElec Gas
70
52.5
35
17.5
0
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018Time (Year)
EJ/
Yea
r
EnROADS WEO
Final Energy from NonElec Bio
60
45
30
15
0
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018Time (Year)
EJ/
Yea
r
EnROADS WEO
Final Energy from NonElec Coal
50
37.5
25
12.5
0
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018Time (Year)
EJ/
Yea
r
EnROADS WEO
Final Energy from Mobile Fuel
200
150
100
50
0
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018Time (Year)
EJ/
Yea
r
EnROADS WEO
Total Final Energy (Consumption)
500
375
250
125
0
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018Time (Year)
EJ/
Yea
r
EnROADS WEO
CO2 FF Emissions
40
30
20
10
0
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018Time (Year)
Gto
nsC
O2/
Yea
r
EnROADS WEO
Fuel End-Use to 2020
INCLUDES• Renewables
e.g., solar, wind, geothermalEXCLUDES • Hydro• Bio
Final Energy from Nuclear
20
15
10
5
0
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018Time (Year)
EJ/
Yea
r
EnROADS WEO
Final Energy from Hydro
20
15
10
5
0
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018Time (Year)
EJ/
Yea
r
EnROADS WEO
Final Energy from Elec Oil
8
6
4
2
0
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018Time (Year)
EJ/
Yea
r
EnROADS WEO
Final Energy from Elec Gas
30
22.5
15
7.5
0
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018Time (Year)
EJ/
Yea
r
EnROADS WEO
Final Energy from Elec Bio
3
2.25
1.5
.75
0
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018Time (Year)
EJ/
Yea
r
EnROADS WEO
Final Energy from Elec Coal
50
37.5
25
12.5
0
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018Time (Year)
EJ/
Yea
r
EnROADS WEO
Final Energy from Renewables
6
4.5
3
1.5
0
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018Time (Year)
EJ/
Yea
r
EnROADS WEO
Final Energy from Electricity
200
150
100
50
0
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018Time (Year)
EJ/
Yea
r
EnROADSWEO
BP
*
Electricity Production to 2020
Note: Blue line = En-ROADS outputRed dots represent single data points from WEO 2012.
Fossil Fuel Prices to 2040 vs. EIA
Note: En-ROADS extracted prices for oil, coal, and gas are set equal to their historical values during 1990-2013, and are simulated starting thereafter; delivered fuel prices are simulated throughout.
Fuel Price of Extracted Oil
200
100
0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040Time (Year)
$/bo
e
En-ROADS Extracted Oil PricesEIA Extracted Oil Prices
Fuel Price of Delivered Oil
200
100
0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040Time (Year)
$/bo
eEn-ROADS Delivered Oil PricesEIA Delivered Oil Prices
Oil Prices 1990 to 2040 vs. EIA
Fuel Price of Extracted Coal
70
35
0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040Time (Year)
$/tc
e
En-ROADS Extracted Coal PricesEIA Extracted Coal Prices
Fuel Price of Delivered Coal
100
50
0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040Time (Year)
$/tc
e
En-ROADS Delivered Coal PricesEIA Delivered Coal Prices
Fuel Price of Extracted Gas
20
10
0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040Time (Year)
$/M
CF
En-ROADS ExtractedGas PricesEIA Extracted Gas Prices
Fuel Price of Delivered Gas
20
10
0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040Time (Year)
$/M
CF
En-ROADS Delivered Gas PricesEIA Delivered Gas Prices
Coal and Gas Prices to 2040 vs. EIA
Policy/Sensitivity Testing
Two Settings for Each Policy: High & ModeratePolicy Lever Setting
Carbon priceBase: 0 $/TonCO2High: 100 $/TonCO2
Moderate: 50 $/TonCO2
Electric subsidy
Base: 0 $/GJ
High: 20 $/GJ (~0.072 $/kWh)
Moderate: 10 $/GJ (~0.036 $/kWh)
Source subsidy renewables
Base: 0 $/GJ
High: 10 $/GJ (~0.036 $/kWh)
Moderate: 5 $/GJ (~0.018 $/kWh)
Coal taxBase: 0 $/GJHigh: 5 $/GJ (~147 $/tce)
Moderate: 1 $/GJ (~29 $/tce)
Energy efficiency improvement (e.g., in response to performance standards)
Base:Stationary: 1.2 %/yearMobile: 0.5 %/year
High: 5 %/yearModerate: 2 %/year
Key Uncertain Parameters for Sensitivity Testing
Parameter Ref. Run Value Min Max Notes
Carrier network sensitivity [“CNS”] 0.2 0.1 0.5
Exponent (positive) for the effect of current carrier share on carrier attractiveness. Early adoption of electricity is slow but facilitates more rapid adoption later on.
Demand elasticity of fuels [“DE”]
Fuels: 0.1Electricity: 0.2 0.05 0.2
Short-term elasticity (negative) of end-use demand to effective energy price (i.e., price adjusted for end-use energy efficiency). Affects expressed energy demand and market-clearing prices.
End use carrier share cost sensitivity [“EUCS”]
2 1 3Exponent (negative) for the effect of aggregate fuel vs. electricity cost on the shares of new end-use capital investment.
Long term GDP growth rate 1.6 1 2.4 Global long-term GDP growth rate approached
gradually 2014 to 2100.Initial available resource remaining in EJ [“IARR”]
Coal: 100000, Oil: 12500, Gas: 9000
Coal: 70000, Oil: 6000, Gas: 6000
Coal: 150000, Oil: 25000, Gas: 25000 Recoverable resource remaining as of 1990.
Profit effect on desired extraction capacity [“EC”]
1.15 1.05 1.25 Determines the rate of expansion for extraction capacity in response to profitability.
Progress ratio renewables (“PR”) 0.80 0.75 0.9 Ratio of unit cost per doubling of cumulative
production. Equals 1 minus the learning rate.
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 21000%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
High Carbon TaxCO2 Emissions from Energy vs. Ref-
erence
CNS highCNS lowDE fuels highDE fuels lowDefault RefEUCS highEUCS lowGDP growth rate highGDP growth rate lowIARR highIARR lowProfit on desired EC highProfit on desired EC lowProgress ratio highProgress ratio low
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 21000%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
High Carbon TaxCO2 Emissions from Energy vs. Ref-
erence
CNS highCNS lowDE fuels highDE fuels lowDefault RefEUCS highEUCS lowGDP growth rate highGDP growth rate lowIARR highIARR lowProfit on desired EC highProfit on desired EC lowProgress ratio highProgress ratio low
Results most sensitive to uncertainty in initial available resources remaining (IARR).
Summary of Policy/Sensitivity Results – 2100(% of reference scenario result; sensitivity conditions)
Policy Lever SettingCO2
EmissionsEnergy
IntensityCarbon
Intensity
Carbon priceHigh:
100 $/TonCO2
23 - 47 % 80 - 89 % 26 - 58 %
Moderate: 50 $/TonCO2 46 - 64 % 86 - 93 % 49 - 72 %
Electricity subsidy to consumers
High: 20 $/GJ 151 - 185 % 169 - 207 % 83 - 94 %
Moderate: 10 $/GJ 113 - 132 % 113 - 140 % 91 - 100 %
Source subsidy renewables
High: 10 $/GJ 80 - 86 % 114 - 124 % 64 - 75 %
Moderate: 5 $/GJ 92 - 95 % 105 - 109 % 84 - 90 %
Coal taxHigh: 5 $/GJ 42 - 73 % 89 - 94 % 47 - 78 %
Moderate: 1 $/GJ 55 - 92 % 90 - 99 % 61 - 93 %
Energy efficiency improvement
High: 5 %/year 39 - 47 % 44 - 50 % 89 - 94 %
Moderate: 2 %/year 58 - 87 % 59 - 89 % 97 - 102 %
How to Proceed• Feedback on this presentation• Set date for next review meeting• Invitations
Goals or principles• We want to have
• Disciplines: three groups of people • Modeling professionals of two types: Energy and Climate. Some
people are both.• Learning, communications, interface design people.• User representatives. Policy people with a science/economics
scholarly background.
• Diversity• At least 1 or 2 women • At least 1 from developing world, likely China• At least 1 from EU
• Recognition• Naki, Wigley, or Edmonds. IE, perhaps we set a goal of at
least one of the three (unless someone else nominates someone for that list)
Draft invite(email from John Weyant)Dear [insert name] –
I’m writing to invite you to review the En-ROADS simulation of Climate Interactive and MIT Sloan.No travel would be necessary – you would attend a small webinar, review the PPT deck and experiment with the simulation online if you want, and share your comments with me.I’m chairing the review because I think this simulation is so important – it extends their earlier C-ROADS simulation and complements the Energy Model Forum suite of models (indeed, they calibrated to the suite and included all the results in their software), aiming at policymaker use, online/app accessibility and broad education.We’ve used the simulation with great success for the last three years in a workshop with our incoming grad students here at Stanford – a two minute video of the event is here. A MIT video is here. And they’ve engaged policymakers in London and elsewhere. A short abstract is here.If you are willing to help, please reply to this email and share your availability here on a doodle poll. We are hoping to hold two webinars (you attend the more convenient one) on TKTK. Please use the doodle link to let us know which days are best for you. If necessary, we could schedule a private meeting with you.I appreciate your urgency on this. We want to be ready for the Paris COP and other engagements.Thank you for your help. I think it could make a big difference in the world.
Sincerely,John Weyant
Reviewers to Invite• Modeling Geeks
• Chair John Weyant (yes) [email protected] • Nebojsa (Naki) Nakicenovic, IIASA
• Or Kewyan Riahi
• Rich Richels• Ottmar Idenhoffer• Brian O’Neil• Bill Moomaw, [email protected] • Susan Solomon, MIT• Jae Edmonds
• Policy and Users• Jonathan Pershing, DOE [email protected]
• Learning, Communications, Interface• George Richardson, [email protected] • Elke Weber from Columbia (female)
• China• Zhao Xiusheng, Tsinghua, [email protected]
• John W says either Jae OR Rich Richels
Appendix A: Supply & Demand Curves
Long Term Supply - Flow Constraints
2
1.45
0.9
0 75 150 225 300 375 450Potential Energy Resource Demand (EJ/Year)
Dm
nl
Supply curve for flow constraint[RBio] : RefSupply curve for flow constraint[RNuc] : RefSupply curve for flow constraint[RHydro] : RefSupply curve for flow constraint[RRenew] : RefSupply curve for flow constraint[RNew] : Ref
Long Term Supply - Cum Production
2
1
0
0 2500 5000 7500 10000Cumulative production (EJ)
Dm
nl
Supply curve for depletion[RCoal] : RefSupply curve for depletion[ROil] : RefSupply curve for depletion[RGas] : RefSupply curve for depletion[RBio] : Ref
Short Term Supply Curve for Elec
1
0.75
0.5
0.25
0
-2 -1.40 -0.80 -0.20 0.40 1 1.60PCCR X axis (dmnl)
Dm
nl
Indicated utiliz by source Y axis : Ref
Short Term Supply Curve for Fuels
1
0.75
0.5
0.25
0
-2 -1.40 -0.80 -0.20 0.40 1 1.60PCCR X axis (dmnl)
Dm
nl
Indicated fuel utiliz by source Y axis[RCoal] : RefIndicated fuel utiliz by source Y axis[ROil] : RefIndicated fuel utiliz by source Y axis[RGas] : RefIndicated fuel utiliz by source Y axis[RBio] : Ref
Effect on Normal Retirement
4
3
2
1
0
-2 -1.40 -0.80 -0.20 0.40 1 1.60PCCR X axis (dmnl)
Dm
nl
Effect of profitability on retirement by source Y axis[NonElec] : RefEffect of profitability on retirement by source Y axis[Elec] : Ref
Price sensitivity of demand = 1.0
Long Term Demand Curve
2
1.5
1
.5
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100Energy cost ($/GJ)
Dm
nl
End use energy substitition effect for demand curve : Ref
Effect of Energy Cost on Capital Lifetime
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
0 1 2 3 4Market price to price basis ratio (dmnl)
Dm
nl
Effect of energy cost on capital lifetime curve[Stationary] : RefEffect of energy cost on capital lifetime curve[Mobile] : Ref
Demand Elasticity of Fuels = 0.1(for each fuel type)
Short Term Demand Curve for Fuels
2
1.5
1
.5
0
0 1 2 3 4Ratio of market market to price basis (dmnl)
Dm
nl
Industry fuel demand to ref demand[RCoal] : RefIndustry fuel demand to ref demand[ROil] : RefIndustry fuel demand to ref demand[RGas] : RefIndustry fuel demand to ref demand[RBio] : Ref
Demand Elasticity of Electricity = 0.2
Short Term Demand Curve for Elec
2
1.5
1
.5
0
0 1 2 3 4Ratio of market market to price basis (dmnl)
Dm
nl
Industry demand to reference demand : Ref
Appendix B: More Policy/Sensitivity Results
56
572020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
High Carbon TaxEffect on Primary Energy Use
CNS highCNS lowDE fuels highDE fuels lowDefault RefEUCS highEUCS lowGDP growth rate highGDP growth rate lowIARR highIARR lowProfit on desired EC highProfit on desired EC lowProgress ratio highProgress ratio low
582020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
High Carbon TaxEffect on Carbon Intensity of Energy
CNS highCNS lowDE fuels highDE fuels lowDefault RefEUCS highEUCS lowGDP growth rate highGDP growth rate lowIARR highIARR lowProfit on desired EC highProfit on desired EC lowProgress ratio highProgress ratio low
Summary of Policy/Sensitivity Results – 2050(% of base run result; range across sensitivity conditions)
59
Policy Lever Setting Carbon Emissions Energy Intensity Carbon Intensity
Carbon taxHigh: 100 $/TonCO2 55 - 62 % 79 - 84 % 66 - 77 %
Moderate: 50 $/TonCO2 71 - 77 % 88 - 91 % 78 - 86 %
Electricity subsidy to consumers
High: 20 $/GJ 103 - 105 % 110 - 113 % 93 - 95 %
Moderate: 10 $/GJ 102 - 103 % 105 - 107 % 96 - 97 %
Source subsidy renewables
High: 10 $/GJ 89 - 99 % 101 - 107 % 85 - 99 %
Moderate: 5 $/GJ 96 - 100 % 100 - 103 % 94 - 99 %
Coal TaxHigh: 5 $/GJ 73 - 79 % 91 - 93 % 80 - 87 %
Moderate: 1 $/GJ 92 - 94 % 98 - 98 % 94 - 97 %
Energy efficiency improvement
High: 5 %/year 63 - 69 % 62 - 67 % 101 - 103 %
Moderate: 2 %/year 92 - 93 % 91 - 92 % 101 - 101 %
60
Scenario 2050 2100
tonsCO2/EJ % of Base tonsCO2/EJ % of Base
Base 49.7 43.9
C tax
High 36.3 73% 20.1 46%
Moderate 41.3 83% 27.7 63%
Electricity subsidy
High 46.3 93% 39.5 90%
Moderate 47.8 96% 41.4 94%
Renewables subsidy
High 43.8 88% 30.3 69%
Moderate 47.3 95% 38.4 87%
Coal tax
High 42.3 85% 29.0 66%
Moderate 47.6 96% 39.4 90%
Energy efficiency improvement
High 50.6 102% 40.1 91%
Moderate 50.3 101% 43.4 99%
Policy Impacts on Carbon Intensity of Energy withDefault Parameter Estimates
61
Scenario 2050 2100
EJ/Trillion $ % of Base EJ/Trillion $ % of Base
Base 6.4 4.2
C tax
High 5.2 82% 3.5 84%
Moderate 5.8 90% 3.8 91%
Electricity subsidy
High 7.1 111% 8.0 192%
Moderate 6.8 106% 5.7 136%
Renewables subsidy
High 6.7 105% 5.0 120%
Moderate 6.5 102% 4.5 107%
Coal tax
High 5.9 92% 3.8 91%
Moderate 6.3 98% 4.1 98%
Energy efficiency improvement
High 4.1 64% 2.0 49%
Moderate 5.8 91% 2.6 62%
Policy Impacts on Energy Intensity of GDP withDefault Parameter Estimates
62
Scenario 2050 2100
EJ/year % of Base EJ/year % of Base
Base 1090.8 1781.0
C tax
High 895.9 82% 1502.2 84%
Moderate 984.7 90% 1614.7 91%
Electricity subsidy
High 1215.7 111% 3427.0 192%
Moderate 1160.4 106% 2425.9 136%
Renewables subsidy
High 1149.2 105% 2131.9 120%
Moderate 1114.2 102% 1903.8 107%
Coal tax
High 1003.4 92% 1624.4 91%
Moderate 1069.1 98% 1750.9 98%
Energy efficiency improvement
High 700.7 64% 870.4 49%
Moderate 996.8 91% 1100.2 62%
Policy Impacts on Energy Use withDefault Parameter Estimates
63
Scenario 2050 2100
GtonsCO2/year % of Base GtonsCO2/year % of Base
Base 54.2 78.3
C tax
High 32.5 60% 30.2 39%
Moderate 40.7 75% 44.8 57%
Electricity subsidy
High 56.3 104% 135.3 173%
Moderate 55.4 102% 100.4 128%
Renewables subsidy
High 50.3 93% 64.7 83%
Moderate 52.7 97% 73.0 93%
Coal tax
High 42.4 78% 47.0 60%
Moderate 50.9 94% 69.0 88%
Energy efficiency improvement
High 35.4 65% 34.9 45%
Moderate 50.1 92% 47.8 61%
Policy Impacts on CO2 from Energy withDefault Parameter Estimates
64To
tal Prim
ary En
ergy E
quiv Dem
and (E
J/yea
r)
Carbon in
tensit
y of p
rimary
energ
y (tonsC
O2/EJ)
CO2 Emiss
ions fro
m Energ
y (GtonsC
O2/year)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
High Carbon Tax% Change from Reference in 2100
CNS highCNS lowDE fuels highDE fuels lowDefault RefEUCS highEUCS lowGDP growth rate highGDP growth rate lowIARR highIARR lowProfit on desired EC highProfit on desired EC lowProgress ratio highProgress ratio low
65To
tal Prim
ary En
ergy E
quiv Dem
and (E
J/yea
r)
Carbon in
tensit
y of p
rimary
energ
y (tonsC
O2/EJ)
CO2 Emiss
ions fro
m Energ
y (GtonsC
O2/year)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Moderate Carbon Tax% Change from Reference in 2100
CNS highCNS lowDE fuels highDE fuels lowDefault RefEUCS highEUCS lowGDP growth rate highGDP growth rate lowIARR highIARR lowProfit on desired EC highProfit on desired EC lowProgress ratio highProgress ratio low
66To
tal Prim
ary En
ergy E
quiv Dem
and (E
J/yea
r)
Carbon in
tensit
y of p
rimary
energ
y (tonsC
O2/EJ)
CO2 Emiss
ions fro
m Energ
y (GtonsC
O2/year)
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
High Electricity Subsidy% Change from Reference in 2100
CNS highCNS lowDE fuels highDE fuels lowDefault RefEUCS highEUCS lowGDP growth rate highGDP growth rate lowIARR highIARR lowProfit on desired EC highProfit on desired EC lowProgress ratio highProgress ratio low
67To
tal Prim
ary En
ergy E
quiv Dem
and (E
J/yea
r)
Carbon in
tensit
y of p
rimary
energ
y (tonsC
O2/EJ)
CO2 Emiss
ions fro
m Energ
y (GtonsC
O2/year)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
Moderate Electricity Subsidy% Change from Reference in 2100
CNS highCNS lowDE fuels highDE fuels lowDefault RefEUCS highEUCS lowGDP growth rate highGDP growth rate lowIARR highIARR lowProfit on desired EC highProfit on desired EC lowProgress ratio highProgress ratio low
68To
tal Prim
ary En
ergy E
quiv Dem
and (E
J/yea
r)
Carbon in
tensit
y of p
rimary
energ
y (tonsC
O2/EJ)
CO2 Emiss
ions fro
m Energ
y (GtonsC
O2/year)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
High Renewables Subsidy% Change from Reference in 2100
CNS highCNS lowDE fuels highDE fuels lowDefault RefEUCS highEUCS lowGDP growth rate highGDP growth rate lowIARR highIARR lowProfit on desired EC highProfit on desired EC lowProgress ratio highProgress ratio low
69To
tal Prim
ary En
ergy E
quiv Dem
and (E
J/yea
r)
Carbon in
tensit
y of p
rimary
energ
y (tonsC
O2/EJ)
CO2 Emiss
ions fro
m Energ
y (GtonsC
O2/year)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Moderate Renewables Subsidy% Change from Reference in 2100
CNS highCNS lowDE fuels highDE fuels lowDefault RefEUCS highEUCS lowGDP growth rate highGDP growth rate lowIARR highIARR lowProfit on desired EC highProfit on desired EC lowProgress ratio highProgress ratio low
70To
tal Prim
ary En
ergy E
quiv Dem
and (E
J/yea
r)
Carbon in
tensit
y of p
rimary
energ
y (tonsC
O2/EJ)
CO2 Emiss
ions fro
m Energ
y (GtonsC
O2/year)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
High Coal Tax% Change from Reference in 2100
CNS highCNS lowDE fuels highDE fuels lowDefault RefEUCS highEUCS lowGDP growth rate highGDP growth rate lowIARR highIARR lowProfit on desired EC highProfit on desired EC lowProgress ratio highProgress ratio low
71To
tal Prim
ary En
ergy E
quiv Dem
and (E
J/yea
r)
Carbon in
tensit
y of p
rimary
energ
y (tonsC
O2/EJ)
CO2 Emiss
ions fro
m Energ
y (GtonsC
O2/year)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Moderate Coal Tax% Change from Reference in 2100
CNS highCNS lowDE fuels highDE fuels lowDefault RefEUCS highEUCS lowGDP growth rate highGDP growth rate lowIARR highIARR lowProfit on desired EC highProfit on desired EC lowProgress ratio highProgress ratio low
72To
tal Prim
ary En
ergy E
quiv Dem
and (E
J/yea
r)
Carbon in
tensit
y of p
rimary
energ
y (tonsC
O2/EJ)
CO2 Emiss
ions fro
m Energ
y (GtonsC
O2/year)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
High Energy Intensity Improvement% Change from Reference in 2100
CNS highCNS lowDE fuels highDE fuels lowDefault RefEUCS highEUCS lowGDP growth rate highGDP growth rate lowIARR highIARR lowProfit on desired EC highProfit on desired EC lowProgress ratio highProgress ratio low
73To
tal Prim
ary En
ergy E
quiv Dem
and (E
J/yea
r)
Carbon in
tensit
y of p
rimary
energ
y (tonsC
O2/EJ)
CO2 Emiss
ions fro
m Energ
y (GtonsC
O2/year)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Moderate Energy Intensity Improvement% Change from Reference in 2100
CNS highCNS lowDE fuels highDE fuels lowDefault RefEUCS highEUCS lowGDP growth rate highGDP growth rate lowIARR highIARR lowProfit on desired EC highProfit on desired EC lowProgress ratio highProgress ratio low
Appendix C: Causal Loop Diagram
Fossil fuelprices
Learning effectfor non-FFelectricity
production costs
GDP
CO2 emissionsfrom energy
Carbon intensityof energy
Energy intensityof GDP
Energyefficienciesof end uses
Electricityshares ofend uses
Electricity price
Depletion &learning effects
for FF productioncosts
Non-FF shareof electricityproduction
Improvements inend-use energy
efficiencies
Energy prices forstationary and mobile
end uses
Non-FF electricityproduction costs
Fossil fuelproductioncapacity &utilization
Fossil fuelproduction
Non-FF electricityproduction
Fossil fueldemand
FFprice
cycles
FFlearning
anddepletion
Non-FFlearning,network,
andflow-limits
Non-FFelectricityultimatelysubstitutes
for FFs
Curtailment,Rebound,
andEfficiencyresponses
Network &flow-limit effects
Energy use
Key Model Dynamics to 2100
Fossil fuelprices
Learning effectfor non-FFelectricity
production costs
GDP
CO2 emissionsfrom energy
Carbon intensityof energy
Energy intensityof GDP
Energyefficienciesof end uses
Electricityshares ofend uses
Electricity price
Depletion &learning effects
for FF productioncosts
Non-FF shareof electricityproduction
Improvements inend-use energy
efficiencies
Energy prices forstationary and mobile
end uses
Non-FF electricityproduction costs
Fossil fuelproductioncapacity &utilization
Fossil fuelproduction
Non-FF electricityproduction
Fossil fueldemand
FFprice
cycles
FFlearning
anddepletion
Non-FFlearning,network,
andflow-limits
Non-FFelectricityultimatelysubstitutes
for FFs
Carbon tax
Subsidy toelectricity users
Tax on coalproducers
Subsidy to renewableelectricity producers
Policies for end-useenergy efficiency
Curtailment,Rebound,
andEfficiencyresponses
Network &flow-limit effects
Energy use
Where the Levers Fit In: 5 Examples
* Coal equivalent weight = 1
Coal Comparisons to EMF
1500
1125
750
375
0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Time (Year)
EJ/
Yea
r
EMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 BET] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 EC IAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 FARM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 GCAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 GRAPE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 IMACLIM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 IMAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 MERGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 MESSAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 POLES] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 REMIND] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 TIAM WORLD] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 WITCH] : RefEn-ROADS Primary Energy from Coal
Coal Comparisons to EMF
1500
1125
750
375
0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Time (Year)
EJ/
Yea
r
EMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 BET] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 EC IAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 FARM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 GCAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 GRAPE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 IMACLIM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 IMAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 MERGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 MESSAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 POLES] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 REMIND] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 TIAM WORLD] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 WITCH] : RefEn-ROADS Primary Energy from Coal
Primary Energy Equivalence by Source
* Oil equivalent weight = 1
Oil Comparisons to EMF
500
375
250
125
0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Time (Year)
EJ/
Yea
r
EMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 BET] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 EC IAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 FARM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 GCAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 GRAPE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 IMACLIM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 IMAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 MERGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 MESSAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 POLES] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 REMIND] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 TIAM WORLD] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 WITCH] : RefEn-ROADS Primary Energy from Oil
Oil Comparisons to EMF
500
375
250
125
0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Time (Year)
EJ/
Yea
r
EMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 BET] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 EC IAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 FARM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 GCAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 GRAPE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 IMACLIM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 IMAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 MERGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 MESSAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 POLES] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 REMIND] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 TIAM WORLD] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 WITCH] : RefEn-ROADS Primary Energy from Oil
Primary Energy Equivalence by Source
* Natural gas equivalent weight = 1
Gas Comparisons to EMF
400
300
200
100
0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Time (Year)
EJ/
Yea
r
EMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 BET] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 EC IAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 FARM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 GCAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 GRAPE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 IMACLIM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 IMAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 MERGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 MESSAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 POLES] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 REMIND] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 TIAM WORLD] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 WITCH] : RefEn-ROADS Primary Energy from Gas
Gas Comparisons to EMF
400
300
200
100
0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Time (Year)
EJ/
Yea
r
EMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 BET] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 EC IAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 FARM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 GCAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 GRAPE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 IMACLIM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 IMAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 MERGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 MESSAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 POLES] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 REMIND] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 TIAM WORLD] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 WITCH] : RefEn-ROADS Primary Energy from Gas
Primary Energy Equivalence by Source
* Bio equivalent weight = 1
Bio Comparisons to EMF
300
225
150
75
0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Time (Year)
EJ/
Yea
r
EMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 BET] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 EC IAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 FARM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 GCAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 GRAPE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 IMACLIM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 IMAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 MERGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 MESSAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 POLES] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 REMIND] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 TIAM WORLD] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 WITCH] : RefEn-ROADS Primary Energy from Bio
Bio Comparisons to EMF
300
225
150
75
0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Time (Year)
EJ/
Yea
r
EMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 BET] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 EC IAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 FARM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 GCAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 GRAPE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 IMACLIM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 IMAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 MERGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 MESSAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 POLES] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 REMIND] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 TIAM WORLD] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 WITCH] : RefEn-ROADS Primary Energy from Bio
Primary Energy Equivalence by Source
* Nuclear equivalent weight = 1
Nuclear Comparisons to EMF
300
225
150
75
0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Time (Year)
EJ/
Yea
r
EMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 BET] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 EC IAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 FARM] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 GCAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 GRAPE] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 IMACLIM] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 IMAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 MERGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 MESSAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 POLES] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 REMIND] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 TIAM WORLD] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 WITCH] : RefEn-ROADS Primary Energy from Nuclear
Nuclear Comparisons to EMF
300
225
150
75
0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Time (Year)
EJ/
Yea
r
EMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 BET] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 EC IAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 FARM] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 GCAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 GRAPE] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 IMACLIM] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 IMAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 MERGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 MESSAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 POLES] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 REMIND] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 TIAM WORLD] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 WITCH] : RefEn-ROADS Primary Energy from Nuclear
Primary Energy Equivalence by Source
* Renewables equivalent weight = 3
Renewables Comparisons to EMF
1000
750
500
250
0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Time (Year)
EJ/
Yea
r
EMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 BET] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 EC IAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 FARM] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 GCAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 GRAPE] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 IMACLIM] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 IMAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 MERGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 MESSAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 POLES] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 REMIND] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 TIAM WORLD] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 WITCH] : RefEn-ROADS Primary Energy Equiv from NonBio Renewables
Renewables Comparisons to EMF
1000
750
500
250
0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Time (Year)
EJ/
Yea
r
EMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 BET] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 EC IAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 FARM] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 GCAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 GRAPE] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 IMACLIM] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 IMAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 MERGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 MESSAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 POLES] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 REMIND] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 TIAM WORLD] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 WITCH] : RefEn-ROADS Primary Energy Equiv from NonBio Renewables
Primary Energy Equivalence by Source
Appendix D: Electricity Price to 2010 vs. EIA (US)…and simulated to 2100
En-ROADS
Electricity Price to 2010 vs. EIA (US)
Where US electricity price stands globally
Market Price of Electricity
.2
.15
.1
.05
0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Time (Year)
$/kW
h
Market price of electricity in KWh : Ref
Electricity Price to 2100
Appendix E: Reference Scenario Stacked Graphs
Total Final Energy (Consumption)
900
675
450
225
0
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090Time (Year)
EJ/
Yea
r
Nonelec stationary final demandNonelec mobile final demandElec stationary final demandElec mobile final demand
Energy End Use by Segment to 2100
Total CO2 Emissions by Carrier
80
60
40
20
0
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090Time (Year)
Gto
nsC
O2/
Yea
r
CO2 emissions from energy by carrier[NonElec] : RefCO2 emissions from energy by carrier[Elec] : Ref
CO2 Emissions by End Use Carrier to 2100
Delivered Fuel Production
3000
2250
1500
750
0
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090Time (Year)
EJ/
Yea
r
CoalOil
GasBio
Fuel Production by Source to 2100
Electric Production by Source
500
375
250
125
0
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090Time (Year)
EJ/
Yea
r
Production for elec[RCoal] : RefProduction for elec[RCoal CCS] : RefProduction for elec[ROil] : RefProduction for elec[ROil CCS] : RefProduction for elec[RGas] : RefProduction for elec[RGas CCS] : RefProduction for elec[RBio] : RefProduction for elec[RBio CCS] : RefProduction for elec[RNuc] : RefProduction for elec[RHydro] : RefProduction for elec[RRenew] : RefProduction for elec[RNew] : Ref
Electricity Production by Source to 2100
Other slides
Price of Coal
140
70
0
1990 2020 2050 2080Time (Year)
$/tc
e
Extracted CoalDelivered Coal
Price of Oil
200
100
0
1990 2020 2050 2080Time (Year)
$/bo
e
Extracted Oil Delivered Oil
Price of Gas
12
6
0
1990 2020 2050 2080Time (Year)
$/M
CF
Extracted GasDelivered Gas
Price of Bio
60
30
0
1990 2020 2050 2080Time (Year)
$/bo
e
Extracted Bio Delivered Bio
Fossil Fuel & Biofuel Prices Simulated to 2100
• Carbon tax ($/tonCO2):– Tax on delivered fuel according to its carbon intensity ($/tonCO2)
• Subsidies or taxes ($/GJ):– May apply to specified source(s) of extracted fuel, delivered fuel,
or electricity, or to electricity consumers in general
• Fractional cost reductions from technical innovations:– May apply to fuel extractors, producers of delivered fuel, or
electricity producers
• Other electricity levers: – Performance standard (TonCO2/TJ)
– Thermal efficiency improvement
– Reduction in the loss of efficiency due to CCS
• Other end-use levers:– Efficiency improvements for mobile and/or stationary end uses
Users decide
magnitude and
timing
Energy Sector Policy and Scenario Levers
Fuel Price of Delivered Coal
300
150
0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040Time (Year)
$/tc
e
En-ROADS Delivered Coal Prices for ElecEn-ROADS Delivered Coal Prices for NonElecEIA Historic Delivered Coal Prices - ElecEIA Delivered Coal Prices - ElecEIA Delivered Coal Prices - CokeEIA Delivered Coal Prices - Commercial and IndustrialEIA Delivered Coal Prices - Other Industrial
Fuel Price of Delivered Oil
200
100
0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040Time (Year)
$/bo
e
En-ROADS Delivered Oil PricesEIA Historic Delivered Oil Prices - GasolineEIA Historic Delivered Oil Prices - Heating OilEIA Historic Delivered Oil Prices - Distillate for ElecEIA Historic Delivered Oil Prices - Residual for ElecEIA Delivered Oil Prices - PropaneEIA Delivered Oil Prices - Motor GasolineEIA Delivered Oil Prices - Jet FuelEIA Delivered Oil Prices - DistillateEIA Delivered Oil Prices - Residual
Fuel Price of Delivered Gas
20
10
0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040Time (Year)
$/M
CF
En-ROADS Delivered Gas Prices for ElecEn-ROADS Delivered Gas Prices for NonElecEIA Historic Delivered Gas Prices - CommercialEIA Historic Delivered Gas Prices - ResidentialEIA Historic Delivered Gas Prices - IndustrialEIA Historic Delivered Gas Prices - ElecEIA Delivered Gas Prices - CommercialEIA Delivered Gas Prices - ResidentialEIA Delivered Gas Prices - IndustrialEIA Delivered Gas Prices - Elec
Oil Prices to 2040 vs. EIA
En-ROADS extracted prices for oil, coal, and gas are set equal to their historical values during 1990-2013, and are simulated starting thereafter; delivered fuel prices are simulated throughout.
Extracted (crude) oil price is projected to decline 2014-2030 because of capacity overexpansion, which itself is a response to prior high price (commodity cycle). The crude price decline is passed to refiners as lower costs, thus higher profitability, encouraging higher capacity utilization. This higher supply tends to suppress market-clearing price, but the price decline in delivered oil is mitigated by greater end use demand. Greater oil end-use and refinery utilization, in turn, prop up demand for extracted oil, leading to a new upswing in oil price starting after 2030.
Fuel Price of Extracted Oil
200
100
0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040Time (Year)
$/bo
e
En-ROADS Extracted Oil PricesEIA Extracted Oil Prices
Fuel Price of Delivered Oil
200
100
0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040Time (Year)
$/bo
e
En-ROADS Delivered Oil PricesEIA Delivered Oil Prices