Empowered lives. Resilient nations. ARMENIA CASE STUDY: Climate Change Impact Study for Lusadzor Village in Tavush Marz, Armenia Regional Workshop on Climate

Empowered lives.Resilient nations.

ARMENIA CASE STUDY:

Climate Change Impact Study for Lusadzor

Village in Tavush Marz, Armenia

Regional Workshop onClimate Change and Local Action

Naira AslanyanSeptember 19-22, 2011

Bratislava, Slovak Republic


• Climate: from dry subtropical to frosty highlands

• Observed climate aridification: temp. incraese by 0.850C (1929-2007), precipitation decrease by 6% (1935-2004).

• Extreme weather events & natural disasters: Droughts, seasonal flooding, hailstorm, early frost, landslides, mudflows, rockfalls, forest fires

• Water stresses: water reserves in snow decreased annually by 5-10% during (1961-90)

• Forest area: 10.4% of territory, 20,000 ha suffers by pests, 168,000USD damaged due to forest fires (2004-2009)

• CC scenarios by 2100: Temp. increase - by 5.80C, precipitation decrease – by 9%

• projected consequences of CC (by 2100) – reduction of: river flow – 24.4%, snow cover – 20-40%, soil humidiy – 10-30% (by 2050), productivity of arable lands – 15-34%

Aggravation of health/epidemiological/ situation – increased cases of infectious diseases (including water born), heat waves, atypical diseases

Armenia’s Climate Profile


CC Proofing Activities in Armenia

COMMUNITY LEVEL

Lusadzor Village Community Climate Change Impact Study

CC impact assessment on water resources of Marmarik river basin

MARZ LEVELCC impact assessment in Shirak

marz/regionCC impact risk assessment in Ararat

marz/region

NATIONAL LEVEL

SNCCRM Technical Assistance – Indosnesia, Ecuador, Mozmb., Armenia

CC mainstreaming

in UNDAF

Socio-economic impact assessment of climate

change in Armenia

DRR/CRM strategy


UNDP CDP ScreeningRationale :• Programme supports local development in climate sensitive area (floods,

mudflows, frost, hail); • Focuse on rural infrastructure rehabilitation and agriculture development.

Lusadzor Project activities:• Access to non-cultivated arable land;• Construction of irrigation system operating through gravity flow; • Construction of internal network for potable water; • Planting of persimmon orchards and distribution of seedlings to rural households;• Creation of revolving funds of wheat, maize and potato seeds.

Climate Relevance:• Situation analysis recognizesdextreme weather events and climate disasters as

important risks hindering local development;• However, no target efforts have been made to address these risks in local planning and

pilot activities.

Objective of CC proofing:• Minimize CC impact on CDP outputs;• Foster activities which can increase the adaptive capacity of communities.


Lusadzor Community Profile• Lusadzor: a border village in Ijevan district of Tavush marz• Elevation: 700 m• Types of terrain: low and middle mountain steppe, and low mountain

dry steppe• Territory: 626 ha with 73.8% agricultural land• Soil category: mountain-steppe• Vegetation type: wood land • Average annual temperature & precipitation:

110C & 600 mm; on average, 150 sunny days• Population: 359 men and 365 women • # of inhabited households in 2007: 197• Employed in agriculture: 33,5% of total local

population• Non agricultural activities: at commercial counters,

a stone-working worshop, preferrite and dolomite mines, other

• Education level: above 16 years old, 25% have higher/secondary/vocational degrees

• Receiving family allowances: 22.8% of the households


Rrisk assessment- Top down approach

• Climate disasters prone area:• floods, mudflows, frost, hail;

• Community development challenges:• low agricultural productivity, • land abandonment (poor irrigation, access to arable lands)• poor rural infrastructure (housing issues, poot roads and bridge connecting to

arable lands in the village)• remoteness of markets and low prices• climate variability and projected CC expected to exacerbate the development

challenges

• Needs to address the challenges:• Information gaps for diagnosis: low resolution scenarios (national level,

derived from regional scenarios); need for bottom-up V&A assessment:• Observable changes, shifts in seasons; • Type and magnitude of losses due to the hazards;• Current coping mechanisms and capacities;• Priority needs to address additional vulnerabilities

• Need for site-specific projections.


Risk and V&A assessment- Bottom-up approach

1. Gathering and analysis of climate related data on Lusadzor

2. Identification of climate risk prone activities in the Lusadzor CDP project

3. Identification and economic assessment of adaptation measures

Interviews:- Local Communities

- Representatives of Agr. Dept, Tavush Marz Administration

Anallysis of meteo data:- Ijevan Met. Post

- Berd Met. Post

Expert Judgement

1. Effectiveness

2. Cost

3. Adequace for current climate

4. Technical feasibility

Methodology


Findings The frequency and intensity of climatic hazards has increased There are tangible economic losses due to climatic hazards (washed out lands,

damaged crops and infrastructure. In 2004-2007: 57,500 USD) lack of information (weather forecasts, risk mitigation measures) is one of the

main barriers to coping with climate risks

• air temperature increase - the highest in summer

• precipitation increase in spring & summer and decrease in fall & winter

Data for 1991-2006 compared with 1961-1990

Monthly average T (0C) & P (mm) 1961-1990 with max and min 1991-2006

Meteorological point

Ijevan Berd

T, 0C + 0.62 + 0.77

P, mm – 6 – 169


Projected CC for north-east of Armenia

Based on the report “Model Simulations of Climate Change over Armenia Region” developed under SNC

Predictions Year Winter Spring Summer Fall Annual

Temperature anomalies (0C) compared to 1961-1990 baseline average

Temperature anomalies (0C)

2030 1.05 1.05 1.23 0.32 0.87

2070 2.5 2.5 2.8 1.0 2.1

2100 3-5 3-5 4-5 1-3 2.5-4.5Precipitation anomalies compared to 1961-1990 baseline mean (%)

Precipitation anomalies (%)

2030 +7 +2 -9 +7 +3

2070 +15 +4 -18 +15 +7

2100 +20 +5 -25 +20 +10


Screening of Lusadzor Project Activities

Project activities screened for:

climate change sensitivity

adaptation value (positive or negative) using expert judgment and taking into account predicted climate change impacts for the area

Findings:

The sensitivity assessment of the Lusadzor Project found that the project’s outcomes are not at high risk from climate change

Some of the project activities have positive adaptation value

Project activities are not sufficient to build the adaptive capacity of the local population and improve their livelihood in the face of climate change


Economic assessment of adaptation measures

Effectiveness: benefits, damages avoided or mitigated, losses and associated costs avoided or minimized

Cost: incremental to “business as usual”

Adequacy for current climate: benefits under the current climatic conditions and future scenarios

Technical feasibility: capacity and means to implement the measure

Adaptation measures (by #s) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.

Effectiveness ++ +++ +++ +++ +++ ++

Cost +++ + +++ + ++ +

Adequacy for Current Climate ++ +++ +++ ++ +++ ++

Technical Feasibility + +++ ++ ++ +++ +++

Assessment Criteria (where: + low, ++ medium, +++ high)


Adaptation measures (total costs - appr. 213,000 USD)

1. Transformation of non-cultivated lands to arable lands. (81,000 USD) - Being implemented by MCA

2. Improving local seasonal forecasting and early warning: flood early warning, weather forecasting, droughts etc. (720 USD) – Proposed to be implemented by local authorities, Ijevan hydromet station

3. Farm piloting / demonstration of adaptation measures. (124,837 USD) – Proposed to be supported by various donors

4. Facilitation of community meetings and farmer trainings on climate risk management to identify and help develop farmers coping and adaptation strategies. (2,558 USD) – Proposed to be implemented by local authorities

5. Creation of communal social nets and common pool of resources to cope with major stressors in the community. (2,654 USD) – Being implemented by UNDP Armenia

6. Incorporation of adaptation measures into the integrated dev. plans for communities, e.g. infrastructure development works. (1,187 USD) – Proposed to be implemented with the support of meteorologists and hydrologists from Ijevan hydromet station


Key ChallengesConstraints with meteorological data availability;Reliability of available information;Proper assessment of damage caused by climatic hazards is not

comprehensive and periodic – due to the absence of insurance system;

Farms are small and have limited coping capacity

Lessons LearnedTime consuming exercise due to participatory process;Some of project activities had adaptation value – important to identify before

proposing an adaptation measure;There is always scope to improve adaptation capacity to increase effectiveness

and sustainability of the project; Important to focus on cost-effective and feasible measures Important to introduce CRM at project design stage, as part of feasibility, so

that additional costs do not incur to the project budgetThere are apparent links between CC adaptation and disaster risk reduction –

important to looked at them in parrallel while deisgning a project.


Local Actions – Lusadzor (2008-2011)

MCA - Gravity system in Lusadzor constructed for irrigation of 300 hectares - (2 pumping stations to be eliminated- resulting in 0.6 mln. Kwt/hour electricity saving).

MCA - Collection Centre constructed for collecting, sorting, cold storage and further marketing of agricultural products in communities of Tavush Marz

MCA - Rehabilitation of tertiary canal in Lusadzor

UNDP CDP-potable water network reconstructed

UNDP - solar water heater installed on cooperative kitchen

UNDP CDP - Greenhouses established

UNDP CDP – 120 rural households engaged in artificial insemination of cattle – “Zebu”

Other:Trainings/Awareness raising events on CC

organized by UNDP & OXFAM for local communities/ authorities of Lusadzor


THANK YOU

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Phone: (37410) 58-39-20, Fax: (37410) 58-39-33

E-mail: [email protected]: www.nature-ic.am

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Empowered lives. Resilient nations. ARMENIA CASE STUDY: Climate Change Impact Study for Lusadzor Village in Tavush Marz, Armenia Regional Workshop on Climate