VOL. XXXVII NO. 50 PAGES 96 NEW DELHI 16-22 March 2013 ` 8.00 UPSC Union Public Service Commission notifies Civil Services and Indian Forest Services Examination- 2013 Last Date : 04.04.2013 SSC Staff Selection Commission will hold an all India Examination for recruitment to the post of Sub-Inspectors in Delhi Police, CAPFs and Assistant Sub-Inspector in CISF and Intelligence Officer in NCB Approximate Vacancies : 2240 Last Date : 12.04.2013 CABINET SECRETARIAT Cabinet Secretariat requires 279 Research Officer, Personal Assistant and Stenographer Last Date : 17.04.2013 ORDNANCE FACTORY Ordnance Factory, Kanpur requires 100 Labourer (Semi-Skilled) Last Date : 21 days after Publication INDIAN OIL Indian Oil requires about 61 Junior Engineering Assistant- IV, Junior Quality Control Analyst-IV/Trainee etc. Last Date : 31.03.2013 JOB HIGHLIGHTS Turn over the pages for other vacancies in Banks, Armed Forces, Railways, PSUs and other Govt. Deptts I n the event of any future conflict, New Delhi's political will and the capabilities of the Indian military should be such that China and Pakistan are hard-pressed to defend Tibet and Lahore respectively instead of threatening Arunachal and Kashmir. These capabilities will act as a major deterrent. However, with the present defence procurement systems, inconsistency in decision making, extreme level of corruption involved, it is difficult to build military capabilities for the armed forces in tune with the multi- plying threats to India. The threat comprises two-front-war imposed by China in collusion with Pakistan. Both countries lay claim to large area of Indian territory. In addition with 40% of the territory under control of Maoists, a half front war may suck in large military assets. Due to neglect by the state for decades, Indian military power is in decline and its capabilities are shrink- ing. The equipment held on the inventory is ancient and archival. Yet, the military is expected to successful- ly defend the borders of the country. New Delhi's neglect of its military over decades is gradually but surely, destabilising the 'final' instrument of the State with morale plummeting to the lowest levels since independ- ence. To add insult to injury, the budgetary cut of Rs 10,000 crore imposed recently by the finance min- istry will adversely impact the much- needed military modernisation. China and Pakistan are emboldened at the move by the Indian Finance Ministry that will degrade the military further. Meagre budgetary allocation for defence and the bureaucratic red tape involved in the acquisition process have placed the defence services in a tight spot. In such a milieu compounded by acute scarcity of equipment and human resources, plummeting morale in the armed forces is not surprising. Today, India is in no position to deal with threat from China or fight a two-front war if imposed on it after the withdrawal of Western forces from Afghanistan. The harsh reality is that if the Indian Army is incapable of protecting the borders, the Union of India will disin- tegrate within no time. Another issue of concern is that the police and the CRPF cannot successfully counter the Maoist onslaught. Unfortunately, sooner or later, the Army will be called in to take charge of the opera- tions against the Maoists. By arming Maoists, Beijing and Islamabad want to ensure that Indian Army's attention is diverted from the borders to handle the growing internal turmoil. This will further stretch the military which is already under considerable pressure on account of capability degradation owing to the callous apathy of the political leadership. In addition to human resources, no military can pack the extra punch unless it is equipped with the most modern weaponry. At the same time, a nation cannot be a great power unless it boasts of a fairly large defence industrial complex. The rea- son India is one of the world's largest importers of defence equipment today is due to the fact that under the disguise of 'self-sufficiency' mantra, scarce and precious resources of the nation have been squandered largely due to the inefficiency of the Defence Public Sector Units and the DRDO. One of the main reasons for delay in the production of the Scorpene sub- marine is the fact that it took a huge effort for DCNS of France to upgrade and modernise the public sector ship- yard Mazagon Docks! Today, the war-fighting equipment Defence Acquisition Process and National Security Goals -- Bharat Verma L et's begin with Economic Survey, 2011-12. This begins with the fol- lowing opening sentences. "While India's recent slowdown is partly root- ed in external causes, domestic causes are also important. The strong post-financial-crisis stimulus led to stronger growth in 2009-10 and 2010-11." Here are the real GDP growth numbers - 8.6% in 2009-10, 9.3% in 2010-11, 6.2% in 2011-12 and 5.0% in 2012-13. Note that CSO's 5% for 2012-13 is no longer being challenged. Why did growth slow in 2011-12 and 2012-13? According to Survey, this is because of "high rates and policy constraints". Later, we are told, "A number of fac- tors are responsible. First, the boost to demand given by monetary and fiscal stimulus following the crisis was large...The result was strong inflation and a powerful monetary response that also slowed consumption demand. Second, starting in 2011-12, corpo- rate and infrastructure investment started slowing both as a result of investment bottlenecks as well as the tighter monetary policy. Thirdly, even as the economy slowed, it was hit by two additional shocks: a slowing global economy, weighed down by the crisis in the Euro area and uncer- tainties about fiscal policy in the United States, and a weak monsoon, at least in its initial phase." It then adds, "A third possible reason for lower corporate investment is policy bottlenecks (such as obtaining envi- ronmental permissions, fuel linkages, or carrying out land acquisition), which led to a number of large proj- ects becoming stalled, which may in turn have discouraged new invest- ment." As the budget speech says, it is important to get back to growth and stimulate both consumption expendi- ture and private investments. But it is unreasonable to expect the budget to do this. It is only one instrument. The 2013-14 budget numbers are based on a projected nominal GDP growth rate of 13.4%. This is what the budg- et speech says. "In the current year, the CSO has estimated growth at 5 percent while the RBI has estimated growth at 5.5 percent." And this is what Economic Survey added, in addition to what was stated earlier. "Quarterly GDP growth rate in India declined in each of the successive quarters between the fourth quarter of 2010-11 and the fourth quarter of 2011-12. Growth in H1 of the current year works out to 5.4 per cent, while the CSO's Advance Estimate for growth for 2012-13 is 5.0 per cent." Therefore, in the last 6 months of 2012-13, the economy grew at 4.6%. Yes, Economic Survey expected a growth rate of between 6.1% and 6.7% in 2013-14. Survey has identi- fied reasons for the slowdown, but hasn't told us why it expects these to be reversed and growth to pick up from 4.6% to 6.1% to 6.7%. Or at least, the recent reform initiatives Survey has mentioned aren't terribly convincing. The argument isn't that growth will continue at 4.6%. It will probably inch up. However, it may inch up to 5.5%, perhaps 6% as an outer limit. In that event, even if infla- tion (measured by the GDP deflator) is 7%, the nominal GDP growth becomes 13%, not 13.4%. In other words, deficit numbers look respectable because the denomina- tor has been blown up. The actual denominator is likely to be lower. On the face of it, the Finance Minister has stuck to so-called red lines, both in 2012-13 and in 2013-14. The fiscal deficit/GDP ratio was 5.2% in 2012-13 and will be 4.8% in 2013-14. By 2016- 17, the ratio will be brought down to 3%. Roughly, 0.5% reduction a year is doable. This is marginally above, but achievable, though tough, provided one can stick to 4.8% in 2013-14. 5.2% in 2012-13 was achieved by dramatically pruning Plan expenditure. More inter- esting is how one can get 4.8% in 2013-14 and whether the numbers are believable. State of the Economy and the Budget 2013-14 -- Bibek Debroy Continued on page 95 Continued on page 95 The Union Public Service Commission has notified the Civil Services Examination 2013 and the India Forest Service Examination 2013. There are major changes in pattern in both the examinations. Employment News begining 23/03/13 issue will be publishing write-ups on the new pattern. The articles will be authored by experts in this field. Candidates desirious of taking up these exams will be benefitted by the articles. IMPORTANT
