EMPLOYMENT FORECAST - AdCentreffx.adcentre.com.au/...EM10...EmploymentForecastA4.pdf · MYCAREER EMPLOYMENT FORECAST AUSTRALIA As the global situation improves, a return to slow jobs

EMPLOYMENT FORECASTNOVEMBER 2012 EDITION

MYCAREER EMPLOYMENT FORECAST


CONTENTS

02 Introduction

03 Australia

04 NewSouthWales

05 Victoria

06 Queensland

07 WesternAustralia

08 SouthAustralia

09 FullTime&PartTimeJobs

10 AustraliaProfessional/Managers

11 NSWProfessional/Managers

12 VICProfessional/Managers

13 QLDProfessional/Managers

14 WAProfessional/Managers

15 SAProfessional/Managers

16 Engineering

17 Mining

18 Information&CommunicationTechnology

19 Retail

20 Tourism&Hospitality

21 Media&Marketing

22 HumanResources&Recruitment

23 Health&CommunityServices

24 Education

25 Government

26 FinancialServices

27 Property&BusinessServices

28 Construction&Property

29 Transport&Storage

30 Manufacturing

31 GenX,Y,Boomers,TwilightCareers

32 Summary

34 CandidateEnvironmentIndex

36 AustralianSalaryReview

37 Retrospective

38 Glossary

39 Methodology

40 Disclaimer

02


INTRODUCTIONThe MyCareer Employment Forecast has provided an accurate picture of the current and future Australian employment market since 2003. The report is produced every six months by EMDA, an Australian based Economic and Market Development Consultancy, and sponsored by Fairfax Media.

ThereportcoverstheAustralian,mainlandstates,professionalandmanagerialmarketsaswellaskeyindustries.TheNovember2012editionfindsthatthenumberofjobscontinuestogrow,butthatthegrowthisveryweakbyhistoricalstandardsandalsoveryuneven.TheMiningsectorremainsastandoutwhereasthePublicSector,alongwithothers,isdeclining.

Thereportalsofindsthegrowthinjobshasnotbeenevenamongstthegenerationalsegments,withTwilightCareersremainingthefastestgrowing.Itsnumbershavereachedrecordlevels.But,forGenerationY,thejobsmarkethasslowed.

TheoverallmarketfortheProfessional/ManagerssectorinAustraliahasreturnedtogrowthafteraweak2011.Atthestatelevel,WAcontinuestobeastandoutintermsofjobsgrowth,whileSAisinthedoldrums.

Thiseditionalsofindsthatanumberofindicatorspointtoanoverallfairlyflatjobmarket.Totalhoursworkedhaseasedandvacancylevelshavedropped,althoughtheyarestillquitehigh.Unemploymentalsoremainsquitelowbyhistoricalstandards.Usuallyduringtimesofuncertainty,unemploymentcanrisequiterapidly,butthathasnotbeenthecaseforAustraliainthislatestglobalslowdown.

Turningtotheoutlook,thisreportfindstherearemorepositivesignsgoingforward.TheEuropeandebtsituationisstabilisingandtheUSFederalReservehasannouncedfurthermonetarymeasures,basicallytolowerinterestratesfurther.InAustralia,bothbusinessandconsumerconfidenceisalittlebetterandinterestrateshavefallen,whichshouldstimulatethemarket.Ontheotherhand,theweakerChineseeconomicgrowthhasslightlydampenedtheMiningoutlook,althoughthissectorstillremainsstrong.

Businessemploymentintentionsremainpositive,althoughsubduedintheyeartoJune2012.Theforwardindicatorsthereforearepointingtoamorepositiveoutlookwithgrowthpickingupthroughthenewyear.

IntheyeartoAugust2013,137,000jobsareforecasttobeaddedtotheAustralianjobmarket.ThisisanimprovementontheyeartoAugust2012whenjust58,000newpositionswereadded,lowbyhistoricalstandards.Eventhisimprovedgrowthissoft.Asacontrast,inearly2011,over300,000jobswerebeingaddedtotheeconomy.

03


AUSTRALIAAstheglobalsituationimproves,areturntoslowjobsgrowthisforecast.

DRIVER SUMMARY

PrivateConsumption

CapitalExpenditure

GDP

NABJobIntentions

Composite Index

Source: ABS/EMDA Model 2012

FORECAST TOTAL JOBS(‘000)

ANNUAL GROWTH IN JOBS

(‘000)

ANNUAL GROWTH(%)

QUARTERLY GROWTH IN JOBS

(‘000)

QUARTERLY GROWTH (%)

Nov12 11,491 55 0.5 19 0.2

Feb13 11,519 79 0.7 28 0.2

May13 11,556 98 0.9 37 0.3

Aug13 11,609 137 1.2 53 0.5

AlthoughtheAustralianeconomycontinuestogrow,up3.7%intheyeartoJune2012,thepacehasslowed.This,combinedwithageneralnervousnessacrossthenation,hasresultedinthejobmarketflatlininginAustralia.Businessandconsumerconfidenceindicatorshavebeenimpactedbytheglobaluncertainty,chieflytheEuropeandebtsituation,althoughbothlevelsareimprovingslowly.IntheyeartoAugust2012,just58,000newpositionswereadded,whichislowbyhistoricalstandards.Bywayofcontrast,inearly2011,morethan300,000jobswerebeingaddedtotheeconomy.

Althoughtheeconomyhasslowed,unemploymentatjustover5%(629,100people)stillremainsrelativelylowcomparedtootherOECDcountries.Thishighlightsthelikelihoodthatwhentheglobaleconomygathersmomentum,abroaderlabourshortagewillappearinAustraliaoncemore.

Totalhoursworkedisanotherindicatorofthestateofthejob

marketandthishassoftenedby0.7%(August2012comparedwithAugust2011).Highlightingtheflatlinenatureofthemarket,hoursworkedamongstpartandfulltimeworkersarebothdownslightly.

Therearemorepositivesignsgoingforward.TheEuropeandebtsituationisstabilisingandtheUSFederalReservehasannouncedfurthermonetarymeasures,basicallytolowerinterestratesfurther.InAustralia,businessandconsumerconfidenceisalittlebetterandinterestrateshavefallen,whichshouldstimulatethemarket.Ontheotherhand,theweakerChineseeconomicgrowthhasslightlydampenedtheMiningoutlook,althoughthissectorstillremainsstrong.

Withemploymentintentionsremainingpositive(+4.4toJune2012),thejobsoutlookispositive,withgrowthpickingupthroughthenewyear.IntheyeartoAugust2013,137,000jobsareforecasttobeadded.

ACTUAL (Aug 12)TOTALJOBS:11,472(‘000)

58 (‘000)additionaljobsinthelast

12mths

0.5% growthinthelast12mths

14 (‘000)additional

jobssincelastquarter

0.1% growthsincethe

lastquarter

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Feb

08

Aug

08

Feb

09

Aug

09

Feb

10

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10

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11

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11

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12

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12

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13

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13

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03

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04

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04

Feb

05

Aug

05

Feb

06

Aug

06

Feb

07

Aug

07

F

AUS ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. AUS QUARTERLY GROWTH %

04


0.1% growthsincethe

lastquarter

3(‘000)additional


NEW SOUTH WALESEmploymentintentionsstillremainpositiveinNSW.

DRIVER SUMMARY

NSWConsumption

NSWGSP

NABJobIntentions

Composite Index




(‘000)

ANNUAL GROWTH(%)


(‘000)

QUARTERLY GROWTH (%)

Nov12 3,609 7 0.2 6 0.2

Feb13 3,617 21 0.6 8 0.2

May13 3,628 28 0.8 11 0.3

Aug13 3,644 41 1.1 16 0.4

AfterafairlysoftstarttotheyearintheNewSouthWalesjobmarket,therearesignsthatthesituationisimproving,withverymodestjobsgrowthrecordedinthelasttwoquarters.Overall,theNSWeconomyisalsoshowinganimprovement,withtheeconomygrowingat3.0%intheyeartoJune2012.Thisisanimprovementfromthetroughof1.5%inSeptember2011.Havingsaidthat,thejobmarketisstillsoftcomparedtohistoricalstandards.

Onanannualbasis,just6,200fulltimejobshavebeenaddedtotheeconomy.Incontrast,byearly2011justover80,000fulltimejobshadbeenadded.Thesituationissimilarwithparttimeemployment.Inearly2011,about25,000parttimejobswereadded,butbytheyearendedAugust2012,thishadfallentojustbelowzerowithanetlossof800jobs.

WagesinNSWhavesoftenedaswell,growingat2.9%,whichisjustabovethecurrentpaceofinflationandwellbelowthepeakrateof7.5%intheyeartoNovember2005.TheaveragesalaryforaprofessionalnowinNSWisjustshyof$100Kbutgrewstronglyover2012by7.3%.Managerialsalariesonaveragearejustover$110Kbuthavebeengrowingmoremoderatelyat3.5%,reflectingthemoredifficulttradingenvironmentandthereductioninbonuses.

Businessemploymentintentionsarestillpositive(+3.2inJune2012),whichisaboutthesameasthenationallevel.This,combinedwithanimprovementintheeconomy,meanstheoutlookisbetter,withjobsforecasttobegrowingby1.1%onanannualbasisbyAugust2013.



12mths


3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5A

ug 1

3

Aug

03

Feb

04

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04

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05

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06

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08

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10

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11

Aug

11

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12

Feb

13

Aug

12

F

NSW ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. NSW QUARTERLY GROWTH %

05


VICTORIAAfteraflat2012,2013islookingbetterinVictoria.

DRIVER SUMMARY

VICConsumption

VICGSP

VICJobIntentions

Composite Index




(‘000)

ANNUAL GROWTH (%)


(‘000)

QUARTERLY GROWTH(%)

Nov12 2,879 0 0.0 2 0.1

Feb13 2,887 12 0.4 8 0.3

May13 2,897 21 0.7 10 0.3

Aug13 2,909 32 1.1 12 0.4

ThestateofplayinVictoriacanbecharacterisedasaneconomyinaholdingpattern,althoughinJune2012economicgrowthedgedupanotchto2.3%from2.1%sinceJune2011.Thisinsipideconomicgrowthhastranslatedintothejobmarket,withoveralljobfiguresduring2012stayingbasicallyflat.However,thereisasignificantdifferencebetweenfulltimejobsandparttimejobs.OvertheyeartoAugust2012,thenumberoffulltimejobshasfallen17,400,whereasayearago79,500wereadded.Ontheotherhand,21,700parttimepositionshavebeenadded.Theshiftingoffulltimejobstoparttimejobsisatypicalresponsetosofteconomicconditionsasbusinessesadjusttheircosts.

TheunemploymentrateinVictoriahasalsoedgedup,fromalowof4.8%earlyin2011to5.5%byAugust2012.Thisrate,however,hasremainedatthislevelsincethebeginningoftheyear,indicatingthejobmarketisstaticratherthandeclining.Thenumberofhours

workedalsopointstothefairlyflatjobmarket,withhoursworkedsofteningby1.4%intheyeartoAugust2012.

Thissofteningingrowthhasalsoresultedinasimilarsofteninginwagesgrowth.WagesinVictoriacontinuetogrow,butthegrowthhasslowedto4.4%perannumintheMay2012quarter,whereasayearearliertheyrosebymorethan8%.

TheoutlookstillremainspositiveandwellupfromthenegativetroughsattheheightoftheGFC.Employmentintentionsarestillpositive(0.2)butonlyjust.TheEMDAmodelisforecastinganotherflatquarterforVictoria,followedbyareturntogrowthastheeconomypicksup,thankstoimprovedconfidenceandlowerinterestrates.



12mths




0.0% growthsincethe

lastquarter

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5A

ug 1

3

Aug

03

Feb

04

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Feb

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10

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11

Aug

11

Feb

12

Feb

13

Aug

12

F

VIC ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. VIC QUARTERLY GROWTH %

06


0.0% growthsincethe

lastquarter

-1(‘000)jobssince

lastquarter

QUEENSLANDAfteraflat2012,fasterjobsgrowthisforecasttoreturnin2013.

DRIVER SUMMARY

QLDConsumption

QLDGSP

QLDJobIntentions

Composite Index




(‘000)

ANNUAL GROWTH(%)

QUARTERLY GROWTHIN JOBS

(‘000)

QUARTERLY GROWTH(%)

Nov12 2,344 8 0.3 2 0.1

Feb13 2,348 8 0.3 4 0.2

May13 2,355 12 0.5 7 0.3

Aug13 2,370 28 1.2 15 0.6

TheQueenslandeconomyhasreboundedstronglyfromearly2011,growingat6.9%intheyeartoJune2012,althoughthishasslowedfromthe9.8%achievedinDecember2011.Despitethisgrowth,themoodofcautionthathascharacterisedtheemploymentmarketsincethebeginningoftheyearhasremained.IntheyeartoAugust2012,just11,000jobswereadded.PriortotheGFC,theQueenslandeconomywasregularlyaddingbetween80,000and100,000jobsperannum.Inanunusualsituation,parttimeworkisactuallyfalling,withpositionsdown5,400intheyeartoAugust.Ontheotherhand,fulltimejobsaregrowingandhaveincreasedby16,500overtheyear.This,however,iswelldownfromthepeakof2007whennearly100,000fulltimejobswerebeingaddedperannum.

Inanothersignthatthejobmarketissoft,hoursworkedhavefallenby2.7%intheyeartoAugust2012.WagesgrowthhasalsobeensubduedinQueensland,growingjust2.4%inMay2012.The

unemploymentratehasalsoedgedupinthestate,reaching5.8%,whereaspriortotheGFCitbottomedat3.6%.

Intheshortterm,employmentgrowthinQueenslandisforecasttobemodest,withtheresilientlyhighAustraliandollarandglobaleconomicuncertaintycontinuingtoweighonbusinesssentimentandconsumerconfidence,althoughthishasimprovedslightlyoflate.ThejobcutsannouncedbytheQueenslandGovernment(14,000workers)willalsohaveanegativeimpactongrowthintheshortterm.Despiteallthis,growthisexpectedtopickupbythemiddleofnextyear,asbetterglobalconditionsandinterestratecutshaveapositiveimpactandbusinessemploymentintentionsremainpositive(7.9).ByAugust2013,jobsareforecasttobegrowingby1.2%perannum.



12mths


7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0A

ug 1

3

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03

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F

QLD ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. QLD QUARTERLY GROWTH %

07


WESTERN AUSTRALIASofteningcommoditypriceswon’tderailjobsgrowthinWA.

DRIVER SUMMARY

WAConsumption

WAGSP

WAJobIntentions

Composite Index



ANNUAL GROWTHIN JOBS

(‘000)

ANNUAL GROWTH(%)


(‘000)

QUARTERLY GROWTH(%)

Nov12 1,276 43 3.5 10 0.8

Feb13 1,284 42 3.4 8 0.6

May13 1,291 37 3.0 7 0.5

Aug13 1,298 32 2.5 7 0.5

TheWesternAustralianeconomyachievedstrongeconomicgrowthof12.7%intheJune2012year,slowingslightlyfromDecember2011,whenitreachedaheady13.4%.Withsuchrobustgrowth,itisperhapsnotsurprisingthatthejobmarkethasbeenbuoyant.IntheyeartoAugust2012,36,700jobswereadded(3.0%p.a.).

Asafurthersignofthestrengthofitseconomy,WAadded33,900fulltimejobsovertheyear,therateofgrowthaccelerating.Hoursworkedalsoincreased,up4.2%overtheyear,WAbeingtheonlystateorterritorytoachievethis.Alsoatoddswiththenationaltrend,unemploymentisactuallyfallinginWA,withtheratenowdownto3.7%,consideredasfullemployment.Alsoreflectingthestronggrowth,wagesgrowthiseasilyoutpacingAustraliaoverall,withwagesrising5.0%inWAcomparedwith4.1%nationally.

BusinessemploymentintentionsinWAremainthehighestofanystate(13.6).However,notevenWAhasbeenimmunefromtheglobalfinancialuncertaintyandtherecentsofteningincommodityprices.ThesecombinedtodampenconfidencesinceJune12,butnottosquashit.

Withbusinessemploymentintentionssolid,theoutlookisstillpositiveinWAthankstotheMiningsector,butnottotheextentthatitwas.ByAugust2013,jobsareforecasttobegrowingat2.5%perannum,althoughthisisslightlylowerthanwhatiscurrentlybeingachievedandlowerthanthelong-termaverage.



12mths




1.0% growthsincethe

lastquarter

7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

-1.0

Feb

08

Aug

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F

WA ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. WA QUARTERLY GROWTH %

08


-0.4% growthsincethe

lastquarter

-3(‘000)jobssince

lastquarter

SOUTH AUSTRALIASAhasbeeninthedoldrumsbutgrowthisexpectedbymidnextyear.

DRIVER SUMMARY

SAConsumption

SAGSP

SAJobIntentions

Composite Index




(‘000)

ANNUAL GROWTH(%)


(‘000)

QUARTERLY GROWTH(%)

Nov12 816 -4 -0.5 -2 -0.2

Feb13 815 -7 -0.8 -1 -0.1

May13 816 -5 -0.6 1 0.1

Aug13 818 0 0.0 2 0.2

SouthAustraliahassufferedthemostofanystaterecently.Althougheconomicgrowthhaspickedupagainto2.7%intheyeartoJune2012,thisissoftcomparedtootherstates.Inresponsetotheweakeconomy,theSAjobmarketshrunkintheyeartoAugust2012.Fulltimejobsarenowfallingby2.6%annually,alossof14,300positions.Thisisonaparwiththejoblossesexperiencedinthe1991recession.Unliketheexperienceatthattime,parttimejobsarestillgrowingquitestrongly,with13,800positionsaddedintheyeartoAugust2012.Butreflectingtherelativelysubduedjobmarket,thenumberofhoursworkedhasfallen2.6%overtheyear.

InablowtotheSAeconomy,BHPBillitonannounceditwouldnotproceedwiththeexpansionoftheOlympicDamMine.Thiswastobeamulti-billiondollarinvestmentandwouldhaveprovidedasignificantstimulustothestate’seconomy.Atthesametime,theSAGovernmentannouncedjobreductiontargetsforthePublic

Sectorof5,100jobsoverseveralyears.Partofthereasonforthecuts,otherthanhelpingtobalancethebooks,istoreversethestronggrowthinthePublicSector.OnJune1lastyear,therewere84,882fulltimePublicSectoremployees,makingup12.6percentofthestate’sworkforce.Thenumbersdippedaslowas66,933in2002.

Onabrighternote,lowerinterestratescombinedwithslightlybetterbusinessandconsumerconfidenceshouldleadtoanimprovementinthejobmarketbynextyear.AlthoughbusinessemploymentintentionshavesoftenedinSA,theystillremainpositive,albeitjust.Thewash-upisthatalthoughthenexttwoquartersareexpectedtoremainsoft,jobsareforecasttogrowby0.2%inthequartertoAugust2013.

ACTUAL (Aug 12)TOTALJOBS:818(‘000)

-1 (‘000)jobsinthe

last12mths

-0.1% growthinthelast12mths

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

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F

SA ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. SA QUARTERLY GROWTH %

09


FULL TIME & PART TIME JOBSFulltimejobsarestillgrowingbutonlyjust.

DRIVER SUMMARY

PrivateConsumption

CapitalExpenditure

GDP

NABJobIntentions

Composite Index


FORECAST TOTAL FULL TIME JOBS (‘000)

ANNUAL GROWTH IN FULL TIME JOBS (%)

TOTAL PART TIME JOBS (‘000)

ANNUAL GROWTH IN PART TIME JOBS

(%)

Nov12 8,065 0.2 3,426 1.1

Feb13 8,080 0.4 3,439 1.5

May13 8,110 0.7 3,447 1.4

Aug13 8,136 0.9 3,472 1.8

ThecontinuedeconomicuncertaintyputadampeneronboththefulltimeandparttimejobsgrowthintheyeartoAugust2012.Theslowdowninthegrowthofparttimejobsisunusualintimesofeconomicuncertainty.

Fulltimeemploymentcontinuedtogrowover2012,with24,000fulltimejobsadded.However,thisiswellbelowthe250,000fulltimejobsaddedinthepreviousyear.Notsurprisingly,theMiningsectorhasbeenthestandoutintermsofgrowth,withfulltimejobsrising22.1%.Healthcarecontinuesitsrunofgrowth,withjobsup5.4%,whilePropertyandBusinessServicesisalsogrowingjobs(+3.6%).Telecommunications(3.8%),Utilities(3.7%),FinancialandInsuranceServices(2.7%)andGovernment(1.4%)arealsogrowingjobs.Ontheotherhand,Education(-0.2%),WholesaleTrade(-0.2%),RetailTrade(-1.7%),Manufacturing(-2.7%),Tourism(-3.4%)Construction(-4.4%)andTransportandStorage(-4.5%)arealllosingjobs.Tohave

thismanysectorslosingfulltimejobsisunusualandhighlightsthesoftnessintheeconomyinsomesectors.

Parttimeemploymenthascontinuedtogrow,asithasdoneforyears,butthegrowthissubdued.IntheyeartoAugust2012,34,200parttimejobswereaddedtotheeconomy.Intermsofgrowth,theMiningsectorwasthestandoutwithpositionsup22.1%intheyeartoAugust2012.Intermsoftotaljobs,theretailsectoristhelargestwith585,000parttimepositions.However,positionsfell2.8%.TheHealthsectorisalsoanotherlargeemployerofparttimepositions,with576,000rolesgrowingat2.1%.

Withtheeconomyexpectedtopickupsteamagain,nowthattheglobaleconomicsituationlooksbetter,fulltimejobsareforecasttogrow(+0.9%)bymid-2013.Parttimejobsarealsoforecasttogrow,withemployeesvaluingtheflexibility.Increasingnumbersofpeoplepreferaparttimeroletosuittheirwork/lifestylebalance.

ACTUAL (Aug 12)

0.3% growthinFT

jobsinthelast12mths

3,412 (‘000)totalPTjobs

inthelast12mths

1.0% growthinthePTjobsinthelast

12mths

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

-1.0

-2.0

Aug

13

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03

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04

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07

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Feb

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12

F

PART TIME % p.a. FULL TIME % p.a.

8,060 (‘000)totalFTjobsinthelast

12mths

10



ANNUAL GROWTH IN

JOBS (%)

QUARTERLY GROWTH IN

JOBS (%)

Nov12 4,024 2.5 0.7

Feb13 4,058 2.9 0.8

May13 4,096 3.0 0.9

AUSTRALIA PROFESSIONAL/ MANAGERSThiscategoryhasreturnedtogrowthandmoreistocome.

DRIVER SUMMARY

BusinessCap.Ex

AUSGDP

Composite Index


TheProfessional/Managersemploymentmarkethasimprovedsincemid-2011butissubduedwhencomparedtohistoricalstandards.IntheyeartoAugust2012,jobsincreasedby2.1%.

Managerialpositionsfellinthesecondhalfof2011asrenewedconcernsabouttheglobaldebtemerged.Atthestartof2012,positionsstartedtogrowagainandarenowgainingatareasonable1.9%perannum.However,thisisafarcryfromthe5.9%growthrateofmid-2010.Positionsforspecialistmanagershavegrown,withjobsup3.7%intheyeartoAugust2012.Demandremainsstrongforengineeringmanagers.Oneweaksectorisinthehospitalityarea,wherepositionsaredown.

Professionalpositionscontinuetogrow(0.5%yeartoAugust2012)butthisissubduedforthissector.Innormaltimes,jobsgrowatabout2%to3%perannum.Humanresourcepositionsarenow

growingagain,whiledemandforaccountantsremainsquitegoodaswellasfinanceprofessionals.Thereisalsoimproveddemandforsalesandmarketingstaffasorganisationsstarttorepositionforgrowth.Similarly,thereisstrongdemandforbusinessanalysts.

Remunerationinthiscategorycontinuestooutpaceinflation.Managerialandprofessionalsalariesarenowgrowingatsimilarlevels,withprofessionalsalariesincreasingby3.7%andmanagerialsalariesby3.0%intheyeartoJune2012.

Withtheeconomycontinuingtogrowandpickuppace,jobsforprofessionalsandmanagersarealsoforecasttocontinuetogrow.Thepaceofgrowthisalsoforecasttopickup,increasingto3.0%bytheendofMay2013.



0.5% growthsincethe

lastquarter

7.0

6.0

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4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0M

ay 1

3

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08

May

08

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09

May

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12

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F


11


NSW PROFESSIONAL/ MANAGERSAfteraflatAugust2012quarter,areturntogrowthisforecast.

WiththeNewSouthWaleseconomygrowingatasluggishrate,jobsgrowthforProfessional/Managersintotalcontinuedtobattlealongintheslowlane,risingjust1.0%intheyeartoAugust2012.TheAugust2012quarterwasflat.Interestingly,thejobsgrowthratebetweenprofessionalsandmanagershasbeenquitedifferent.Managerialpositionsremainvirtuallystatic,whileprofessionalpositionscontinuetogrow.

Managerialjobsaredownjust0.1%,mainlyduetoasofteninginfarmmanagementpositions.Demandforspecialistmanagershasbeenstrongwithjobsgrowingby4.4%.Financeandhumanresourcepositionshavealsobeenstrong,however,positionsforhospitalitymanagershavebeenweaker.Salarygrowthhasbeensubdued,fallingto3.5%intheyeartoJune2012,althoughtheaveragemanagerialsalaryinNSWhastopped$110K.OnlyinWAaresalarieshigher,at$120K.

Professionalpositionscontinuetogrow,althougheventhissub-sectorhasnotbeenimmunefromtheslowdown.Jobsaregrowingnowat1.6%,whereaspre-GFCtheyweregrowingattriplethatrate.Thedemandforbusinessprofessionalshasbeenstronger,withpositionsup0.8%.Accountancyandhumanresourcepositionsaregrowingagain.Reflectingtheweaknessintheconstructionindustry,professionalpositionsinthatsectorareweaker.Positionsforhealthprofessionalscontinuetogrow.Salariesforprofessionalscontinuetogrowstrongly,withincomesup7.3%intheyeartoJune2012.

WiththeNSWeconomygatheringmomentumduringthefirsthalfof2013,theoutlookfortheProfessional/Managerialsectorisquitegood,positionsforecasttogrowby1.8%p.a.byMay2013.



0.0% growthsincethe

lastquarter


ANNUAL GROWTH IN

JOBS (%)

QUARTERLY GROWTH IN

JOBS (%)

Nov12 1,310 1.3 0.4

Feb13 1,318 1.5 0.6

May13 1,328 1.8 0.7

DRIVER SUMMARY

NSWBusinessCap.Ex

NSWGSP

Composite Index


7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

-1.0M

ay 1

3

Nov

02

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NSW ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. NSW QUARTERLY GROWTH %

12


VIC PROFESSIONAL/ MANAGERSDespiteoverallweakjobnumbers,thissegmentisgrowingagain.

ThegrowthinProfessional/ManagerspositionsinVictoriahasimprovedsincethelastreportandhasreturnedtogrowthafteraflatmarketsincemid-2010.OvertheyeartoAugust2012,16,000Professional/Managerialpositionshavebeenadded.

Managerialpositionsaregrowingagain(4.1%)afterdecliningsincethemiddleoflastyear.Positionsforspecialistmanagershaverebounded,withjobsrisingby7.3%afterfallingformorethanayear.Managementpositionsinthehospitalityareacontinuetobesoft,withjobsdown3.3%.Reflectingthemorechallengingeconomictimes,salarieshavehardlygrownovertheyear,risingjust0.4%intheyeartoJune2012.

Professionalpositionsareflat,followingverystronggrowthinearly2011.Positionsforbusiness,humanresourceandmarketingaregrowingat5.5%.Positionsfordesignandengineeringrolesarealsogrowing2.0%.PositionsforICTprofessionalsaresimilarlygrowingagain(2.4%).Rolesforeducationprofessionalsarealittleweaker,down2%.Salarieshaveactuallyfallenslightlyduetotheweakereconomicconditions.

Withtheeconomyexpectedtogathermomentumafteraflatyear,managerialandprofessionalpositionsareforecasttocontinuetogrow,withjobsup2.7%byMay13.



0.8% growthsincethe

lastquarter


ANNUAL GROWTH IN

JOBS (%)

QUARTERLY GROWTH IN

JOBS (%)

Nov12 1,044 2.1 0.5

Feb13 1,050 2.6 0.6

May13 1,058 2.7 0.7

DRIVER SUMMARY

VICBusinessCap.Ex

VICGSP

Composite Index


10.0

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

-2.0M

ay 1

3

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VIC ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. VIC QUARTERLY GROWTH %

13


QLD PROFESSIONAL/ MANAGERSAcontinuedpick-upindemandisforecastover2013.

WiththeQueenslandeconomystillgrowing,positionsintheProfessional/Managerssectorareimprovingstronglyaswell,upasolid3.5%perannum.Unlikeotherstates,jobsforbothprofessionalsandmanagersaregrowingatsimilarratesintheSunshineState.

Thegrowthinmanagerialpositionscontinuedtorecoverafterafairlydismal2011.Managerialpositionsarenowgrowingat3.5%p.a.(yeartoAugust2012).Demandforspecialistmanagementpositionswassteady.Positionsatthegeneralmanagementlevelcontinuetogrowstrongly,aswellasfarmmanagementroles.Hospitalitymanagementisstillsoftduetothesubduedtourismsector.

Thedemandforprofessionalscontinuestobestrong.Professionalpositionsaregrowingat3.4%p.a.(yearendedAugust2012).Business,humanresourceandsales/marketingrolesareallgrowing

morethantheoveralljobmarket(3.2%).Design,engineeringandscienceprofessionalsareslightlysofter,reflectingtheweaknessintheconstructionsector.Jobsforeducationprofessionalsareweaker,while,asalways,opportunitiesforhealthprofessionalscontinuetogrow.PositionsforICTprofessionalsarealsoincreasingstrongly.

Withthestrongerdemand,salarieshavestartedtoincreaseagain,althoughthereisavariationbetweenthetwostreams.Managerialsalarieshaveincreased1.5%,justkeepingpacewithinflation,whilesalariesforprofessionalsaregrowingat5.7%.

WiththeQueenslandeconomyexpectedtoreturntobettertimesastheglobalsituationimproves,moregrowthisexpectedinthemanagerialandprofessionaljobareas.ByMay2013,jobsareforecasttobegrowingatasolid3.8%onanannualbasis,withquarterlygrowthpickingup.



0.2% growthsincethe

lastquarter


ANNUAL GROWTH IN

JOBS (%)

QUARTERLY GROWTH IN

JOBS (%)

Nov12 766 3.3 1.0

Feb13 775 4.3 1.2

May13 785 3.8 1.3

DRIVER SUMMARY

QLDBusinessCap.Ex

QLDGSP

Composite Index


12.0

10.0

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

-2.0

-4.0M

ay 1

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QLD ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. QLD QUARTERLY GROWTH %

14


WA PROFESSIONAL/ MANAGERSThecontinuedgrowthintheMiningsectorgivesthiscategoryinWAaboost.

WiththeWesternAustralianeconomygrowingstrongly,jobsforProfessional/Managershavecontinuedtoincrease,rising4.2%intheyeartoAugust2012,supportedbyaverysolidAugustquarter.Jobsforbothmanagersandprofessionalsareincreasing,althoughprofessionaljobsaregrowingatamuchfasterrate.

Withthebettereconomicgrowth,managerialpositionsareup1.8%.Thisfigureincludesfarmpositions,althoughthesearestillwelldownduetodifficulttradingconditionsintheagriculturalsector.Jobsforhospitalitymanagersarerisingsolidly(5.5%),whilepositionsforspecialistmanagersarealsogrowing0.4%afternearlyayearandahalfofdecline.Salarylevelsaregrowingagain,up6.1%,reflectingthebetteremploymentsituation.

Professionalpositionsaregrowing,withjobsincreasingat5.5%intheyearendedAugust2012.DemandforICTandhealth

professionalsremainsstrong.Positionsforbusinessandmarketingprofessionalshavealsobeenexperiencinggrowthoveranumberofyears.JobsfordesignandengineeringprofessionalsarealsoincreasingduetothestrengthoftheMiningsectorandrelatedinfrastructuredevelopment.Salarylevelsaregrowingagain(5.7%)thankstothestrongeconomy.

WiththeMiningsectorstillforecasttogrow,duenotonlytostillsolidcommoditypricesbutalsosignificantexpansionunderway,theforecastfortheWAProfessional/Managerssectorisforincreasedgrowthwithjobsrisingby1.4%inthequarterendingMay2013.Thishowever,isaslowdowninthepreviousrapidgrowth.Skillsshortageswillcontinuetobeafeatureofthismarket,especiallyinminingandminingsupportrelatedareas.



2.1% growthsincethe

lastquarter


ANNUAL GROWTH IN

JOBS (%)

QUARTERLY GROWTH IN

JOBS (%)

Nov12 413 6.0 1.5

Feb13 419 6.8 1.4

May13 425 6.7 1.4

DRIVER SUMMARY

WABusinessCap.Ex

WAGSP

Composite Index


14.0

12.0

10.0

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

-2.0M

ay 1

3

Nov

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WA ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. WA QUARTERLY GROWTH %

15


SA PROFESSIONAL/ MANAGERSThiscategoryreallyslowedmid2012but2013isexpectedtobealittlebetter.

Withafairlyweakeconomicenvironment,theSouthAustralianProfessional/Managersmarkethasbeensoftoverthelastsixmonthsorso,beingespeciallyweakintheAugust2012quarterwhenjobsfell0.6%.Managerialpositionsarestillgrowing,butatalowerratethanprofessionalpositions,increasingjust1.0%intheyearendedAugust2012.Specialistmanagementpositionshavegrown5.5%,butmanagementrolesintourismandhospitalityaresoft.Despitethismarket,salariesarestillgrowinginthiscategory.

Theprofessionalsmarkethasbeenalittlebetter,withemploymentup1.7%.Positionsforbusiness,humanresourceandmarketing

professionalsoverallareweaker.OnebrightspotisdemandforICTprofessionalsgrowingagainafterafairlydismal2011.Despitetheflatmarket,salariesforprofessionalsarealsogrowing.

TheSAeconomyisforecasttocontinuetogrow,butataslowpace.Asaconsequence,positionsforprofessionalsandmanagersareexpectedtoquietlynudgeahead,withjobsrisingby0.6%intheMay2013quarter.Thiswouldtakeannualgrowthto1.0%bythattime,arelativelysubduedgrowthratebyhistoricalstandards.




lastquarter


ANNUAL GROWTH IN

JOBS (%)

QUARTERLY GROWTH IN

JOBS (%)

Nov12 274 1.1 0.4

Feb13 276 0.5 0.5

May13 277 1.0 0.6

DRIVER SUMMARY

SABusinessCap.Ex

SAGSP

Composite Index


8.0

7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

-1.0

-2.0M

ay 1

3

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SA ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. SA QUARTERLY GROWTH %

16


ENGINEERINGAshortageofskilledengineersisstillevidentinthissector.



1.0% growthsincethe

lastquarter


ANNUAL GROWTH IN

JOBS (%)

QUARTERLY GROWTH IN

JOBS (%)

Nov12 154 1.0 0.7

Feb13 155 2.7 0.8

May13 156 3.6 1.0

DRIVER SUMMARY

ConstructionCap.Ex

ResidentialBuilding

AUSGDP

Composite Index


25.0

20.0

15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0

-5.0

-10.0M

ay 1

3

Nov

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F


TheEngineeringsectorhadastrongerquarterinAugustthankstoaswagofbigengineeringprojectsunderway.Positionsgrew1.0%intheAugustquarteralone.

Inbuildingrelatedengineering,steadyvacancylevelsexistacrossmostofAustralia.Demandremainsstrongforseniorlevelengineers,particularlyinelectricaldesign.Civilengineersandseniorcivilengineersareinhighdemand.OneareathatisalittleweakeristhePublicSector,duetoatighteningofbudgets.Ontheotherhand,demandforprojectengineersandprojectmanagershasbeenparticularlystrong,ashastheneedforcivilandelectricaldesignstaff.

InWA,hydrologistsandseniorenvironmentaladvisorswithminingprojectexperienceareinstrongdemand.Mechanicalengineers

withexperienceworkingonresourcesprocessingandmaterialshandlingprojects,especiallygoldandironore,arealsobeingsought.Therearerecruitmentdifficultiesreportedforseniorchemicalengineersinspecialistareasincludingwatertreatmentandtheoilandgassector.

Withtheeconomygatheringpace,theMiningsectorremainingsolidandtheConstructionsectorrecovering,thedemandforengineersmustonlygrow.TheEMDAmodelisforecastingthatengineeringpositionswillbegrowingat3.6%p.a.byMay2013.Thisgrowthwillmeanthatskillsshortagesinthiscategorywillworsen.

17


MININGMoregrowthisforecast,buttheratetoslow.

TheMiningsectorcontinuestobeaverystrongperformerforAustralia,withjobsgrowingatanannualrateof22%totheyearendedAugust2012.Thisisequaltotherecordof22%in2006.However,commoditypriceshavestartedtoease,duetoaslowingingrowthinChinaandincreasedproductionfromothercountries.Itisstillthecase,though,thatcommoditypricesarehighbyhistoricalstandards.

Overall,intheMiningsector,thedemandforengineersremainsstrong.DuetothecontinueddemandofmegaprojectssuchasGorgon,WheatstoneandIchythys-aswellasincreasingneedforstaffontheEastCoastcoalseamgasprojects-thereisastrongdemandforengineerswithAustralianoilandgasexperience.Thiswillplacefurtherpressureonsalariesandbenefits.

MininginQueenslandhascontinuedtobounceback,withproductionrampingupafterrecoveryfromthefloodsof2011.

JobsgrowthhasalsobeenstronginNSWandWAandexpansioncontinuesinthosestates.InSA,jobsincreasedintheyeartoAugust2012.

However,commoditypricesgenerallyhavesoftenedandtherehavebeenmajorannouncementsaboutdelaysorshelvingofprojects,BHPBilliton’scallontheOlympicDamMineexpansionbeingoneofthebiggest.Ratherthanabust,aslowdownintherapidexpansionisexpected,asthereisstillverylargeinvestmentinminingandresourcedevelopmentinthepipeline.

Withsofteningcommodityprices,businessconfidenceinthissectorhaseasedandtheoutlookthereforeisforamoderationingrowthtoalevelthat,althoughsomewhatsubdued,willstillbewayaboveanyotherindustry.ByMay2013,jobsareforecasttobegrowingby10.2%p.a.Atthisgrowthrate,skillsshortageswillcontinuetobeanissueforthissector.



4.5% growthsincethe

lastquarter


ANNUAL GROWTH IN

JOBS (%)

QUARTERLY GROWTH IN

JOBS (%)

Nov12 264 18.4 1.5

Feb13 268 14.8 1.8

May13 274 10.2 1.9

DRIVER SUMMARY

EngineeringConstruction

TradeWeightedIndex

MiningConfidence

Composite Index


30.0

25.0

20.0

15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0

-5.0

-10.0M

ay 1

3

Nov

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STATE ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. (YEAugust2012)

WA 19.9

SA 34.4

QLD 22.4

VIC 23.3

NSW 23.1

18


INFORMATION & COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGYThissectorhasreturnedtogrowthandmoreisexpected.

Despitetheglobaluncertainty,annualemploymentgrowthinthissectorhasincreasedto2.3%(yearendedAugust2012),withICTprofessionscomprising535,000workersinAustralia.

Managementpositionshaverecoveredandcontinuetogrowstrongly(5.6%).Jobsfortrainersarealsogrowingafteradismalfirsthalfof2011,positionsincreasingby12.5%.Positionsarealsogrowingstronglyamongbusinessandsystemsanalysts,andalsoimprovingforsoftwareandapplicationsprogrammers.Projectmanagerswithoutsourceexperiencearebeingsoughtasoutsourcingcontinuestogrow,whilejobsarealsogrowingforcomputernetworkprofessionals.Testengineerandsupportpositionsarealsogrowingagainafteradismal2011.Datawarehousingspecialistsareindemandasorganisationsbecomemoresophisticatedintheiruseofdataandinformation.

Atthestatelevel,thesectorisgrowingsolidlyinresource-richWA.Althoughgrowthhasslowedthererecently,itismoreasaresultofthechallengeoffindingsuitablestaff.QueenslandisshowinggrowthaswellasNSW,butpositionshavefalleninthetwostatesthathaveexperiencedasofteningineconomicgrowth-SAandVictoria.InthecaseofVictoria,therateofdeclinehasslowed.

Overall,theoutlookforthissectorisbrighter.ThereismajorupgradeworkunderwayincorporateAustralia,slightlybetterbusinessconfidenceandtherolloutoftheNationalBroadbandNetwork,allpositivepointers.Theglobaluncertaintyanddeclineinbusinessconfidencewasadampener,butbothhaveimprovedrecently.TheresultistheICTindustryisforecasttocontinuetogrow,withjobsgrowingat3.5%p.a.byyearendedMay2013.



1.0% growthsincethe

lastquarter


ANNUAL GROWTH IN

JOBS (%)

QUARTERLY GROWTH IN

JOBS (%)

Nov12 540 2.6 0.8

Feb13 544 3.9 0.7

May13 549 3.5 0.9

DRIVER SUMMARY

GDP

BusinessCap.Ex

EmploymentIntentions

Composite Index


10.0

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

-2.0M

ay 1

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WA 0.6

SA -7.0

QLD 2.9

VIC -0.8

NSW 5.3

19


RETAILThissectorhasbeeninthedoldrumsbuttherearesignsofimprovement.

Jobshavecontinuedtocontractinthissector.Therehavebeenanumberoffactorsthathavenegativelyimpacted,beinghouseholdsrampinguptheirsavingssignificantly,althoughthereareindicatorstherateofsavinghaspeaked.

Anotherfactoristhatconsumersarepayingofftheirdebtathigherratesthantheyusedto.Athirdimpactisconsumerstakinguponlineshoppingwithgusto,thankstotheverystrongAustraliandollaraswellastheconvenience.

Nevertheless,therearesomesignsthemarketisturning,withconsumerconfidencerespondingtothereductionininterestratesandstartingtoimprovenowthattheEurodebtsituationhasstabilisedsomewhat.Asaresult,non-foodretailsalesaregrowingat2.6%perannum(yearendedJuly2012),whereasinthelasthalfof2011theyweregrowingatjust1.1%.Clothingsalesarestillfallingonanannualbasis(-0.5%),buttheyweredroppingat2.8%inlate

2011.Spendingatcafesandrestaurantsisnowincreasing(4.6%)comparedwithlate2011whentheyweregrowingatjust1.1%.Retailbusinessconfidencehasalsoimprovedslightly.Wagesintheretailsectorarealsogrowingagain,up3.1%afteraverysoft2011.

RetailsalesinNSWhaveliftedslightlybutarestillfairlysubduedandthejobmarketremainssoft.InVictoria,salesgrowthisstillsofteningandthereforethejobmarkethasbeensoft.InQueensland,spendingispickingupagainandthiswilltranslateintoabetterjobmarket.WAisstillrecordingdouble-digitsalesgrowth,withthejobmarkettherestrong.InSA,salesaregrowingagainslowly(1.3%)afterfallingin2011,resultinginmodestjobsgrowth.

Withinputsmorepositive,suchasbusinessandconsumerconfidenceandlowerinterestrates,theoutlookhasimproved,theEMDAmodelforecastinggrowthbymidnextyear.ByMay2013,employmentisforecasttobeincreasingby0.6%inthatquarter.




lastquarter


ANNUAL GROWTH IN

JOBS (%)

QUARTERLY GROWTH IN

JOBS (%)

Nov12 1,209 -1.8 -0.2

Feb13 1,211 -0.9 0.2

May13 1,218 0.1 0.6

DRIVER SUMMARY

PrivateConsumption

Imports

RetailConfidence

Composite Index


7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

-1.0

-2.0

-3.0M

ay 1

3

Nov

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WA 0.6

SA -7.0

QLD 2.9

VIC -0.8

NSW 5.3


WA 0.2

SA 0.8

QLD -4.0

VIC -4.3

NSW -1.0

20


TOURISM & HOSPITALITYThetourismmarketisshowingsomesignsofimprovement.

Althoughjobsaredecreasinginthissector,TourismandHospitalityisatlastshowingsignsofcomingbacktolife.IntheAugust2012quarter,jobswerevirtuallystatic,anencouragingfigureafterthebigfallsofearly2012.

Thetourismmarketisalittlebetter.TotaldomestictripsbyAustralianresidentsincreasedby7%intheyeartoJune12,whilespendingbyovernightvisitorsroseto$50.8billion,anincreaseof9%.Daytripexpenditurewaswellup,growingto$17.5billionfrom$15.2billion.Asafurthersignofbettertimes,interstatevisitorspendingincreased5.5%.EventheinternationalmarketisalittlebetterfollowingtheslumpcausedbytheGFC.Totalinternationalexpenditureisup2%comparedtolastyearandvisitornumbersareupslightly,by1%.Accommodationrevenuehasstartedtoimproveaswell,revenueup5.8%inMarch2012whencomparedwiththesamequarterlastyear.Thegrowthinspendingwilltranslateintojobsgrowthinthefuture.

Inafurthersignofimprovement,wagesandsalariesinthissectoraregrowing2.5%.Butaveragetotalsalariesarestillhalftheaverageforthepopulationoverall.

Atthestatelevel,NSWisalittleweakerwhiletheotherstatesareeitherflatorgrowingslightly.Victoriaisonethatisexpandingmarginallydespitetheweakhospitalitysector.

AustralianstravellingoutofAustraliacontinuetobeadampeneronthissectorandthatelementisstillgrowingat4.9%inJuly2012comparedwithJuly2011.Butthecontinuedrecoveryinbusinesstravelandamodestlygrowingdomesticmarketwillsupportareturntojobsgrowth.TheEMDAmodelisforecastingquarterlyjobsgrowthof+0.5%inthequarterendedMay2013.




lastquarter


ANNUAL GROWTH IN

JOBS (%)

QUARTERLY GROWTH IN

JOBS (%)

Nov12 767 -2.3 0.2

Feb13 770 -0.1 0.3

May13 774 1.1 0.5

DRIVER SUMMARY

AUSGDP,PrivateConsumption

OECDEconomicGrowth

ExchangeRate


Composite Index


8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

-2.0

-4.0

-6.0M

ay 1

3

Nov

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WA 0.0

SA 0.4

QLD 0.0

VIC 1.2

NSW -2.0

21


MEDIA & MARKETINGThissectorstalledinmid2012,withaslowrecoveryforecastin2013.

TheMediaandMarketingsectoremployed227,000peopleintheyeartoAugust2012,growinganimpressive5.0%overtheyearafteraterrible2011.Thissectorisonethatismostresponsivetothestateoftheeconomy.Afterastrongrecoveryin2010,themarketreallysoftenedin2011astherenewedconcernabouttheglobaleconomysawfirmsshelvemarketingexpansionplans.Themarketthenrecovered,butassoonasglobalconcernsre-emergedinmid-2012itslowedconsiderablyagain.Onthemediaside,continuedreductioninthenumberofjournalistsintraditionalmediahasbeenadampener.

Atthesub-sectorlevel,positionsforadvertisingandsalesprofessionalshavestartedtogrowagain,increasingby1.9%intheyeartoAugust2012.However,advertisingandsalesmanagerialpositionsaresoftening.Anareaofparticularstrengthcontinuestobeinthepublicrelationsarea,wherejobsaregrowingatdouble-

digitlevelsandshortagesofstaffarereported.Demandisalsostrongforexperiencedmarketingstaffthatcanmanageacrossmedia,digitalandmobileapplications.

Atthestatelevel,positionsinNSWaregrowingagainonanannualbasis(1.7%)afterawoeful2011.Victoriaisexperiencingareturntogrowth(10.9%)afteraveryslow2011aswell.PositionsarealsogrowingagaininQueensland(7.1%),whileinSAconditionsaresoft.WAhasalsobeenstrong,butfindingsuitablecandidateshasbeenanissue.

TheoutlookforMediaandMarketingisbetterastheeconomicuncertaintystartstofade.TheEMDAmodelisforecastingthatthesectorwillcontinuetogrow,withjobsincreasingoverthenextsixmonths.Growthisforecastat0.7%bytheMay2013quarter.



0.2% growthsincethe

lastquarter


ANNUAL GROWTH IN

JOBS (%)

QUARTERLY GROWTH IN

JOBS (%)

Nov12 228 4.8 0.4

Feb13 229 3.6 0.5

May13 231 1.9 0.7

DRIVER SUMMARY

AUSGDP


Composite Index


20.0

15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0

-5.0

-10.0M

ay 1

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02

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WA 0.0

SA 0.4

QLD 0.0

VIC 1.2

NSW -2.0

22


HUMAN RESOURCES & RECRUITMENTAfterastrongbeginningto2012,mid2012wassoft.

TheyeartoAugust2012hasbeenagoodoneforthissector,withpositionsrising9.5%.Asthechartshows,however,thiscategorywasheavilyimpactedbytheGFCin2008and2009,whenthenumberofjobsshranksignificantly.Therethenfollowedastrongrecoveryinpositions,untilnervousnessreturnedintheAugust2012quarterduetotheEuropeandebtsituation.Jobsinthissectorfellimmediatelyasrecruitmentstalled.

Havingsaidthat,positionsforhumanresourcemanagershavebeengrowingovertheyear,aswellaspositionsforhumanresourceprofessionalsandtrainers.Thelatterreflectstherenewedemphasisontrainingwithinorganisations.AfterthecutbacksbroughtonbytheworstoftheGFC,organisationsarerenewingeffortstoretainstaff,seekingbetterengagementthroughimprovedtraining.

Atthestatelevel,jobsaregrowingagaininNSW,butinVictoriapositionshavecontractedastheeconomyhassoftened,diminishingthedemandforrecruitmentservices.Inadirectcorrelationwiththestrengthoftheireconomies,positionsarecontinuingtogrowstronglyinQueenslandandinWA,wherethemarkethasbeenbolsteredasinterstateofficesseektoemploylocalhumanresourceprofessionalsandmanagers.InSA,jobshaveimprovedafteradismal2011.

Withtheeconomypickingupsteam,thejobsoutlookisbetterafterapoorAugust2012quarter.Growthisforecasttoremainatasolidlevelof0.9%bytheMay2013quarter,areasonableratebutstillbelowpre-GCFlevels.




lastquarter


ANNUAL GROWTH IN

JOBS (%)

QUARTERLY GROWTH IN

JOBS (%)

Nov12 131 5.9 0.4

Feb13 131 2.1 0.7

May13 133 0.1 0.9

DRIVER SUMMARY

AUSGDP


Composite Index


20.0

15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0

-5.0

-10.0

-15.0M

ay 1

3

Nov

02

May

02

Nov

03

May

03

Nov

04

May

04

Nov

05

May

05

Nov

06

May

06

Nov

07

May

07

Nov

08

May

08

Nov

09

May

09

Nov

10

May

10

Nov

11

May

11

May

12

Nov

12

F


23


HEALTH & COMMUNITY SERVICESThissectorcontinuestogrowasithasinthelast10years.

Thissectorcontinuestoexpandasperusual,growingataratewellaheadoftheoverallaverage.Jobsinhospitalscontinuetogrow(3.0%)andreflectingtheageingofthepopulation,jobsintheresidentialcaresectorarealsogrowing(2.5%.Additionally,jobsinthecommunityservicessub-sectorarealsogrowing(3.2%)despitethecontinuedgrowthintheeconomy,highlightingthatforsomesectionsofthepopulation,conditionsarestilltough.

Positionsareincreasingforanumberofspecialists,includingdentists,doctorsandnurses.Therearecontinualshortagesofnursingstaff,especiallyinregional/remotelocations,whilethereisastrongdemandfordoctorsinbothmetropolitanandregional/remoteareas.Inthecommunityservicessub-category,thereisanincreasingdemandforsocialcareworkers.Shortagesarealsoreportedforoccupationaltherapistsinspecialistrolessuchasmentalhealthandpaediatricsaswellasforsometemporaryandparttimepositions.Innursing,recruitmentisprovingdifficultfor

thoseseekingseniorstaffandthoserequiringregisterednurseswhohavespecialistexperience.Therearealsoshortagesreportedforenrollednursesanddentaltechnicians.

Despitetherelativelygoodemploymentmarketinthissector,salariesgrowthhasslowedto2.4%,whereasmidlastyearitwasgrowingatmorethan5%perannum.

Atstatelevel,jobsaregrowingsolidlyinresource-richWAandQueensland.SAandNSWarealsoaddingjobs.OnlyinVictoriaarejobsweak.

Withskillsshortagesstillapparentinsomeareasandareasonablelevelofvacancies,thejoboutlookinthissectorremainsgood.ByMay2013,jobsareexpectedtobegrowingatanannualrateof3.2%withacontinuedshortageofsuitablestaff.



0.8% growthsincethe

lastquarter


ANNUAL GROWTH IN

JOBS (%)

QUARTERLY GROWTH IN

JOBS (%)

Nov12 1,366 3.7 0.7

Feb13 1,378 3.7 0.9

May13 1,388 3.2 0.7

DRIVER SUMMARY

GDP

Popn.Aged65+

Unemployment

Composite Index


8.0

7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

-1.0M

ay 1

3

Nov

02

May

02

Nov

03

May

03

Nov

04

May

04

Nov

05

May

05

Nov

06

May

06

Nov

07

May

07

Nov

08

May

08

Nov

09

May

09

Nov

10

May

10

Nov

11

May

11

May

12

Nov

12

F

AUS ANNUAL GROWTH % AUS QUARTERLY GROWTH % p.a.


WA 12.4

SA 4.1

QLD 7.8

VIC -1.0

NSW 2.7

24


EDUCATIONTheEducationsectorhasreturnedtogrowthafterapoor2011.

TheEducationsectorhasshruggedofftheweaknessintheinternationalstudentsub-sectortorecordsomejobsgrowthintheyeartoAugust2012.Overtheyear,jobsgrewat2.0%p.a.

Withinthepreschoolsub-category,jobsaregrowingstrongly,withhighdemandforpreschoolteachersandchildcaremanagers.Partofthedifficultyinfillingtheserolesisbecausesalariesonofferarelowercomparedtoothereducationalsectors.Withintheschoolsector,employmentoverallisflat,butthereisashortageofsecondaryteachersincertaindisciplinessuchasIT,sciences,mathematicsandtechnicalsubjects.Peoplewiththesequalificationscanachievehighersalariesinotherindustries,addingtotheshortagewithineducation.AnotherfactorisAustralia’sageingteachingpopulation,whichmeansthateveryyearmoreteachersareretiring,increasingthedemand.Atthetertiarylevel,jobsaregrowingagain,butinareaswhereskillsaremoreeasily

transferredtotheprivatesectorsuchasinhealth,fillingteachingrolescanbechallenging.

Jobsgrowthinthestatescontinuestobeamixedbag,withWAandNSWsoftening,whileotherstatesareincreasingjobs.InWA,findingsuitablestaffisaresultofaconstraintongrowth.InVictoria,withthecutbacksannouncedtotheTAFEsector,jobsarelikelytosofteninthatstate.

Althoughtheinternationalstudentsub-sectorlooksweakoverthenextfewyears,continuedpopulationgrowthandtheinvestmentinskillsandtrainingprogramsmeansthattheoutlookforthissectorisforquitegoodgrowthoverthenextyear,withjobsgrowthrisingto1.9%annuallybyMay2013.Quarterlygrowthof0.2%isforecastforMay2013.



1.1% growthsincethe

lastquarter


ANNUAL GROWTH IN

JOBS (%)

QUARTERLY GROWTH IN

JOBS (%)

Nov12 883 2.7 0.4

Feb13 885 2.4 0.2

May13 886 1.9 0.2

DRIVER SUMMARY

RealGDP

Popn.Aged14—65

Composite Index


8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

-2.0

-4.0M

ay 1

3

Nov

02

May

02

Nov

03

May

03

Nov

04

May

04

Nov

05

May

05

Nov

06

May

06

Nov

07

May

07

Nov

08

May

08

Nov

09

May

09

Nov

10

May

10

Nov

11

May

11

May

12

Nov

12

F



WA -1.0

SA 6.5

QLD 4.3

VIC 4.7

NSW -2.5

25


GOVERNMENTPublicSectorcutsaretakingatollonthissector.




lastquarter


ANNUAL GROWTH IN

JOBS (%)

QUARTERLY GROWTH IN

JOBS (%)

Nov12 712 -1.5 -0.7

Feb13 708 -3.3 -0.6

May13 705 -3.4 -0.4

DRIVER SUMMARY

Non-farmGDP

PrivateConsumption


Composite Index


10.0

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

-2.0

-4.0

-6.0M

ay 1

3

Nov

02

May

02

Nov

03

May

03

Nov

04

May

04

Nov

05

May

05

Nov

06

May

06

Nov

07

May

07

Nov

08

May

08

Nov

09

May

09

Nov

10

May

10

Nov

11

May

11

May

12

Nov

12

F

AUS ANNUAL GROWTH % AUS QUARTERLY GROWTH %


WA -1.0

SA 6.5

QLD 4.3

VIC 4.7

NSW -2.5


WA 1.4

SA -0.5

QLD 3.6

VIC -1.8

NSW 2.8

ThemuchtalkedaboutPublicSectorreductionsappeartobegettingsometraction,withjobsdown1.6%intheAugust2012quarter.Inthatquarteralone,thesectorsufferedthebiggestfallinjobsin10years.

AtFederalGovernmentlevel,jobsaregrowingbutonlyby2.2%annually.Despiteatighteningofbudgetsinsomestates,jobsarealsostillgrowingannuallyatStateGovernmentlevel(2.8%)althoughtherateofgrowthhasslowed.LocalGovernmentadministrationisshowinggoodgrowth(7.1%)andtherearestillreportsofthissectorhavingdifficultyrecruitinginspecialisedareas.

InNSW,QueenslandandWA,jobsaregrowing,butinVictoriajobsarefalling.AnumberofstategovernmentshaveannouncedsignificantjobreductionsincludingNSW,Victoria,QueenslandandSA,andthiswillbeadampenerinthosegrowthstates.

SalariesandwagesinthePublicSectoraregrowingat3.4%,whichisslightlybelowtheAustralianaverage.Overall,wagesarestill22.8%higherthantheaverageforallworkers.

Lookingtothefuture,withsomeuncertaintystillintheeconomyandannouncedjobcutsbystateandfederalgovernments,employmentlevelsareforecasttofallintheGovernmentsector.ByMay2013,theannualrateofjobsgrowthisforecasttofallby3.4%.

26


FINANCIAL SERVICESWiththeglobalsituationlookingalittlebetterjobsareforecasttogrowagain.

ACTUAL (AUG 12)TOTALJOBS:426(‘000)



lastquarter


ANNUAL GROWTH IN

JOBS (%)

QUARTERLY GROWTH IN

JOBS (%)

Nov12 425 0.3 -0.1

Feb13 427 -0.1 0.3

May13 429 0.3 0.7

DRIVER SUMMARY

HousingCap.Ex

Non-residentialBuilding

Construction

FinanceConfidence

Composite Index

10.0

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

-2.0

-4.0M

ay 1

3

Nov

02

May

02

Nov

03

May

03

Nov

04

May

04

Nov

05

May

05

Nov

06

May

06

Nov

07

May

07

Nov

08

May

08

Nov

09

May

09

Nov

10

May

10

Nov

11

May

11

May

12

Nov

12

F



WA* 2.7

SA* 3.6

QLD* 7.5

VIC -12.2

NSW 4.4

TheFinancialandInsuranceServicessectorenjoyedasolidyeartoAugust2012withjobsgrowth,up2.7%.Lendingisstartingtoincreaseagain,whileborrowingforbusinesspurposes,whichfellby8.2%duringtheheightoftheGFC,isgrowingat4.9%.Owner-occupierfinanceisgrowingat4.9%andhasbeenstayingstablearoundthisforfourmonths.Personalborrowingisstillfallingat1.5%,butontheotherhanditwasfalling12.4%attheheightoftheGFC.Thegrowthinbusinesslendinghasresultedinincreaseddemandforappropriatelyskilledstaff.

ThelevelofmanagedfundsinAustraliahasreached$1.8trillion,growingby1.5%intheJune2012quarter.Thisgrowthhasalsoresultedindemandforsuperannuationandwealthmanagementstaff.Theinsuranceindustryalsohadamuchbetteryear,withprofitrising41%inthe12monthstoJune2012.Thishasledtoashortageofskilledpeople,especiallyattheseniorlevel,asdemandhaspickedup.Anothertrendintheinsurancesub-sectorisfor

organisationstoincreasetheirtrainingofjuniorstafftoup-skillthem,readyformoreseniorrolesinthefuture.

NSWisthedominantstateinfinancialserviceswith43%ofjobsinthesectorheldinthatstate.Infact,NSWisreturningtogrowthafterquiteaslump.Meanwhile,theFinancialServicessectorinthesmallerstates,intermsofthenumberoffinanceworkers,isalsoimproving.ButreflectingtheweakeconomicgrowthinVictoria,positionshavefallenafterverystronggrowthin2010.

Althoughconfidencehasimprovedinthissector,itisstillwellbelowthe2010levels.Recentuncertainty,especiallyinthesecondhalfoflastyearandthefirsthalfofthisyear,hasbeenadampeneronjobs.Lookingtothefuture,improvedconfidenceandlendinglevelsincreasingmeanstheoutlookisalittlebetter,withjobsforecasttobegrowingby0.7%intheMay2013quarter.


*2 year average shown due to sample size

27



WA* 2.7

SA* 3.6

QLD* 7.5

VIC -12.2

NSW 4.4


ANNUAL GROWTH IN

JOBS (%)

QUARTERLY GROWTH IN

JOBS (%)

Nov12 1,112 4.0 0.2

Feb13 1,117 3.8 0.4

May13 1,126 2.6 0.9

DRIVER SUMMARY

Non-farmGDP

PrivateConsumption

FinanceConfidence

Composite Index


PROPERTY & BUSINESS SERVICES Thissectorhascomebacktolifeaftertheslumpin2011.

10.0

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

-2.0

-4.0M

ay 1

3

Nov

02

May

02

Nov

03

May

03

Nov

04

May

04

Nov

05

May

05

Nov

06

May

06

Nov

07

May

07

Nov

08

May

08

Nov

09

May

09

Nov

10

May

10

Nov

11

May

11

May

12

Nov

12

F



WA 5.7

SA 1.0

QLD 0.3

VIC 4.8

NSW 3.3



1.1% growthsincethe

lastquarter

ThissectoriscontinuingtoexpandaftertheGFC,evengrowingduringthereneweduncertaintyinthesecondhalfof2011andthefirsthalfof2012.Jobsarenowincreasingat3.7%fortheyearendedAugust2012.

Therealestatesub-sectorhasimprovedwithjobsup3.2%.Architectural,engineeringandtechnicalservicesarealsogrowing,up1.4%,buttherateofgrowthhasslowed.Demandonthearchitecturalside,however,issoft(-4.1%)asthepipelineofworkdriedupduringthesecondhalfof2011andinearly2012.Advertisingandsalesmanagerpositionsaregrowingagainafterasoft2011.ThedemandforICTprofessionalshasalsopickedup.

Allstatesareshowingsomegrowthinthissector.InVictoria,positionsaregrowingdespitetherelativelyweakeconomy.ThestrengthoftheWAeconomyisevidentwithjobsgrowingstrongly.

Inthatstate,propertyandbusinessprofessionalsareindemandtosupporttheMiningsectorandrelatedactivities.SAismoreslowandsteady.Queenslandisalittlesoft,reflectingtheweaknessintheConstructionsector.

Withbusinessconfidenceimprovingslightly,jobsgrowthisforecasttocontinuebutataslowerrate(2.6%)bytheyearendedMay2013.AstheeconomicsituationstabilisesandtheConstructionsectorcomesbacktolife,demandforconstructionrelatedprofessionalswillimproveagain.

28


CONSTRUCTION & PROPERTY Thissectorcontinuestoslumpbutmidnextyearshouldseeanimprovement.

10.0

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

-2.0

-4.0

-6.0M

ay 1

3

Nov

02

May

02

Nov

03

May

03

Nov

04

May

04

Nov

05

May

05

Nov

06

May

06

Nov

07

May

07

Nov

08

May

08

Nov

09

May

09

Nov

10

May

10

Nov

11

May

11

May

12

Nov

12

F


WA -7.8

SA -8.9

QLD -3.7

VIC -6.9

NSW 3.5

Thissectorhasbeenfeelingtheeffectsofthereneweduncertainty,startingfromthemiddleoflastyear.OvertheyeartoAugust2012,jobsfell3.5%perannum.Confidenceinthissectorhasdroppedandisatalowpoint.Evenso,employersareexperiencingdifficultyrecruitingconstructionprojectmanagersforminingandresourceprojects.Constructioncostestimatorsforlargeprojectsarealsoinshortsupply.

Atthestatelevel,jobsgrowthisquitesubdued,evenintheverystronggrowthstatesofWAandQueensland,duetotheweakerresidentialmarket.JobsarelowerinVictoria,againthankstotheweakereconomy,asisthecasewithSA.NSWisshowingsomegrowthinjobs,thevalueofbuildingapprovalsgrowingstronglyinthatstate.

However,therearesignsofbettertimestocome.ThevalueofapprovalsinAustraliaisstartingtoriseagain,up1.7%toJuly

2012.Latein2011theywerefallingby12%.Thevalueofresidentialapprovalsremainsweak(-2.6%),butthiswasalsostrugglinginlate2011,fallingby15%.Onthenon-residentialside,aftertheslumpof2011whenthevalueofapprovalsfell7.6%,itisnowgrowingby8.1%.Inanothersignofbetterthingstocome,positionsforlanddevelopmentandsitepreparationstaffaregrowingagainafterbigfallsinthesecondhalfof2011.

Eventhoughthevalueofbuildingsapprovedhasimproved,invariablyittakestimetotranslateintoactualjobsgrowth,particularlywhenconfidenceislow.Ontopofthis,confidenceisevenmorecriticalinthissector,duetothelargecapitalcosts,andthatwillbeadampenerforawhile.Bythemiddleofnextyear,thankstoimprovedeconomicconditionsandlowerinterestrates,growthisforecasttoreturntothissector,albeitsubduedbyhistoricalstandards.




lastquarter


ANNUAL GROWTH IN

JOBS (%)

QUARTERLY GROWTH IN

JOBS (%)

Nov12 996 -4.1 -0.9

Feb13 997 -3.9 0.1

May13 1,001 -2.1 0.4

DRIVER SUMMARY

Non-farmGDP

PrivateConsumption

ResidentialInvestment

ConstructionConfidence

Composite Index



29


TRANSPORT & STORAGEThissectorhasbeenstrugglingsincemidlastyear.

10.0

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

-2.0

-4.0

-6.0M

ay 1

3

Nov

02

May

02

Nov

03

May

03

Nov

04

May

04

Nov

05

May

05

Nov

06

May

06

Nov

07

May

07

Nov

08

May

08

Nov

09

May

09

Nov

10

May

10

Nov

11

May

11

May

12

Nov

12

F


WA -7.8

SA -8.9

QLD -3.7

VIC -6.9

NSW 3.5


WA 2.6

SA 0.7

QLD -1.5

VIC -8.7

NSW -8.7

Althoughtheeconomyisstillgrowing,jobsintheTransportandStoragesectorfellby4.9%intheyeartoAugust2012.Roadtransportpositionsaredownalittle,at1.3%,mainlyduetothecontinuedweaknessintheroadfreighttransport,butpassengertransportbybusisalittlebetter.Railtransportpositionsarealsoweakerandsoarejobsinairtransport.

Despitetheoverallweakjobsperformanceinthesector,therearestillareaswherethereisstrongdemand.OrganisationsthatprovidetransportandlogisticssupportfortheMiningsectorareexperiencingshortagesofsuitablyqualifiedstaff.Asareflectionofthemoreprudenttimes,logisticsmanagersthatcanreducecostsarealsoindemand.Therealsocontinuestobeashortageofsuitablyqualifiedtruckdrivers.

JobsatthestatelevelarealleithersoftordecliningexceptinWA,whereminingisstimulatingdemand.Overall,jobsarewelldowninthetwobiggeststates,NSWandVictoria.

Businessconfidenceinthissectorhasimprovedrecently(postJune2012)astheglobalsituationsettlesalittle,althoughthishasbeentemperedwiththesofteningincommodityprices.TheEMDAmodelisstillshowingsomegrowthbythemiddleofnextyear,butforecastgrowthissubduedbyhistoricalstandards.Theforecastisforanannualrateofdeclineof1.9%intheyeartoMay2013.However,quarterlygrowthisforecasttoincreaseto0.3%bythattimeasconditionsimprove.


ANNUAL GROWTH IN

JOBS (%)

QUARTERLY GROWTH IN

JOBS (%)

Nov12 553 -5.6 -1.0

Feb13 553 -3.6 0.1

May13 555 -1.9 0.3




lastquarter

DRIVER SUMMARY

BusinessCap.Ex

Exports

TandSConfidence

Composite Index



30


MANUFACTURING Manufacturingremainsinthedoldrumswithchallengingtimesahead.

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

-1.0

-2.0

-3.0

-4.0

-5.0M

ay 1

3

Nov

02

May

02

Nov

03

May

03

Nov

04

May

04

Nov

05

May

05

Nov

06

May

06

Nov

07

May

07

Nov

08

May

08

Nov

09

May

09

Nov

10

May

10

Nov

11

May

11

May

12

Nov

12

F


WA 9.2

SA -4.1

QLD -6.2

VIC 0.2

NSW -2.7

TheManufacturingsectorhascontinuedtodeclineinimportancetotheAustralianeconomyovertheyears,yetitstillaccountsfor8%oftheworkforce.UndertheweightofsoftdomesticdemandandthehighAustraliandollarmakingimportscheaper,jobsfell1.9%intheyeartoAugust2012.

Nevertheless,therearesomesuccessstoriesinmanufacturing.High-techmanufacturingandfoodmanufacturingaretwoareaswheretherehavebeensomegoodresults.Amajorchallengeisthatalthoughthereisdemandforworkshopmanagers,supervisorsandsometrades,itishardformanufacturerstocompetewithremunerationpackagesonofferfromtheresourcesandminingsectors.

Withtheweaknessinthissector,itisnotsurprisingthatwageshaverisenonly2.4%intheyeartoJune2012.Highlightingthedifficulty

inkeepingskilledstaffinmanufacturing,incomesareabouthalfthelevelintheMiningsector,sowhereskillscanbetransferred,thelureofahighsalarycanbeveryattractive.

Atthestatelevel,onlyWAisshowinganygrowthbutthisisasmallcomponentoftheManufacturingsector.InVictoria,manufacturingimprovedslightlywhileallotherstatesareshowingadecline.

Astothefuture,businessconfidenceinthissectorhasfallenrecentlyduetoacombinationofthestrongAustraliandollarandthesoftdemandconditions.This,inturn,willimpactonthejobsoutlook.However,confidenceisstillhigherthanduringthedepthsoftheGFC.ThenetresultistheEMDAmodelisshowingcontinuedjoblosses,withpositionsfallingby0.6%byMay2013.




0.4% growthsincethe

lastquarter


ANNUAL GROWTH IN

JOBS (%)

QUARTERLY GROWTH IN

JOBS (%)

Nov12 957 -1.1 -0.3

Feb13 954 -0.7 -0.2

May13 950 -0.6 -0.4

DRIVER SUMMARY

PrivateBusinessCap.Ex

MachineryandEquipment

ExchangeRate

ManufacturingConfidence

Composite Index


31


GEN X, Y, BOOMERS, TWILIGHT CAREERSGenYemploymenttakesahitagain.


WA 9.2

SA -4.1

QLD -6.2

VIC 0.2

NSW -2.7

Withtherenewedconcernsabouttheglobaleconomy,jobsforGenerationYhavefallenagain.Thisisthetypicalpatternintimesofeconomicstress.

ThemarkethasalsocontractedforGeneration Y. Overall,jobsaredown0.9%.Fulltimejobsarefallingby1.2%andevenparttimejobsaredownaswell,at0.3%.Forthebettereducatedandmoreexperienced,however,jobsaregrowing.Managerialpositionsareexpandingat4.4%,whileprofessionalpositionsaregrowingat3.1%.Thelossesareattheunskilledendofthemarket,withpositionsforlabourersdown6.8%.

Generation X: Overall,jobsarestillgrowingforGenerationXat0.8%.Fulltimejobsareup0.5%,whileparttimerolesarerising1.6%.Professionalpositionsaregrowingat3.3%andmanagerialrolesareup1.9%.LiketheirGenYcounterparts,itistheunskilledjobsthatarefalling,down2.4%.

Boomers: Forthissegment,jobsaregrowingby0.3%only,withfulltimejobsup0.2%andparttimerolesup0.5%.Managerialpositionsareup0.6%,whileprofessionalpositionsareonlygrowingat0.3%.Thejobmarketatthelessskilledendissoft.

Thefastestgrowingsegmentcontinuestobe Twilight Careers.Thisgrouphasgrownforyearsandtheynownumber543,000workers,whichisarecord.Infact,overthelastdecade,onein10jobscreatedhasgonetoaTwilightCareerworker.Thesegmentiscurrentlygrowingjobsat8.3%,arateofgrowththathasactuallypickedup.Fulltimepositionsaregrowingat8.1%,with285,000nowemployedfulltime,whileparttimerolesareup8.4%.Managerialpositionsaregrowingatarateof5.6%,whileprofessionalpositionsaregrowingstrongly,up11.2%.Evenlabourerpositionsaregrowing,at3.8%.

JOBS GROWTH % p.a. TWILIGHT CAREERS (63+) BOOMERS (43—63) GEN X (30-42) GEN Y (16-29)

14.0

12.0

10.0

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

-2.0

-4.0

Aug

12

Aug

01

Feb

01

Aug

02

Feb

02

Aug

03

Feb

03

Aug

04

Feb

04

Aug

05

Feb

05

Aug

06

Feb

06

Aug

07

Feb

07

Aug

08

Feb

08

Aug

09

Feb

09

Aug

10

Feb

10

Feb

11

Feb

12

Aug

11

32


SUMMARYSubduedjobsgrowthisforecastforthefirsthalfof2013.

SAhasbeeninthedoldrums,butquarterlygrowthof0.2%isforecastbyAugust2013.

ThecontinuedgrowthintheMiningandrelatedsectorsprovidesaboost,althoughsoftercommoditypriceswilldampengrowth.

AUSTRALIA

NEW SOUTH WALES

Astheglobalsituationimproves,areturntoslowjobsgrowthisforecast,withjobsgrowingby0.5%intheAugust2013quarter.

BusinessemploymentintentionsarestillpositiveandtheoutlookisforjobsgrowthtopickupbyAugust2013to0.4%.

VICTORIA Afteraflat2012,2013islookingbetterforVictoria.

QUEENSLAND

Afteraflat2012,fasterjobsgrowthisforecasttoreturnin2013,withjobgrowingby0.6%intheAugust2013quarter.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

SofteningcommoditypriceswillnotderailjobsgrowthinWA.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

AUSTRALIA FULL TIME & PART TIME

PROFESSIONAL /MANAGERS, AUSTRALIA

PROFESSIONAL /MANAGERS,

NSW

Fulltimejobsaregrowing,butonlyjust.Bettergrowthisexpected.

Thissectorhasreturnedtogrowthandmoreisexpectedover2013.

AfteraflatAugust2012quarter,areturntogrowthisforecastbytheNovemberquarter.


VIC


QLD


WA


SA

DespiteoverallweakjobnumbersinVictoria,thissegmentisgrowingagain.

Afterasolid2012,acontinuedpick-upindemandisforecastduring2013.

Thissectorreallyslowedmid2012but2013isexpectedtobealittlebetter.

33


SUMMARY

ENGINEERING

MINING

INFORMATION & COMMUNICATION

TECHNOLOGY

RETAIL

TOURISM & HOSPITALITY

MEDIA & MARKETING

HUMAN RESOURCES & RECRUITMENT

Ashortageofengineerscontinues,especiallyinMiningrelatedsectors.

Therecentsofteningincommoditypriceswilldampenbutnotderailjobsgrowth.

TheICTindustryisforecasttocontinuetogrow,withjobsgrowingat0.9%p.a.byMay2013.

Thissectorhasbeeninthedoldrumsbuttherearesignsofimprovement.

Thetourismmarkethasbeenweakbuttherearesignsofimprovement.

Thissectorstalledinmid2012,withaslowrecoveryforecastfor2013.

Afteraverystrongfirsthalfof2012,mid2012wassoftandtheoutlookisareturntogrowth.

HEALTH & COMMUNITY

SERVICES

Thissectorcontinuestogrowasithasdoneinthelast10years.

EDUCATION

GOVERNMENT

FINANCIAL SERVICES

PROPERTY & BUSINESS SERVICES

CONSTRUCTION & PROPERTY

TRANSPORT & STORAGE

MANUFACTURING

THE GENERATIONS

Thissectorhasreturnedtogrowthafterapoor2011,butonlyverymodestgrowthisforecast.

PublicSectorcutsaretakingatollonthissectorandfurtherreductionsareexpected.

Withtheglobalsituationlookingalittlebetter,jobsareforecasttogrowagain.

Thissectorhascomebacktolifeaftertheslumpof2011.

Thissectorcontinuestoslumpbutbymidnextyearshouldseeanimprovement.

Withtherenewedglobaluncertainty,thissectorslowedbutisforecasttocomeoutofthedoldrums.

ThissectorcontinuestostruggleundertheweightofastrongAustraliandollarandmorejoblossesareexpected.Despiteallthis,thesectorstillemploysjustunder1,000,000Australians.

ThejobmarkethasslowedforGenerationY,butjobsforTwilightCareersarerocketingalong.

34


CANDIDATE ENVIRONMENT INDEXTheCEIisflatatthemoment.

Tohelprecruitersbetterunderstandtheemploymentmarket,MyCareerdevelopedtheCandidateEnvironmentIndex(CEI),amathematicalindexoflabourdemandandsupplyforAustraliaandthemainlandstates.TheCEImeasuresthestrengthofthecandidateenvironmentbycombiningemploymentintentions,fulltimejobschangeandjobvacancies.Itgivestherecruitmentindustryaninsightintothestateofthelabourmarketasmeasuredbytheavailabilityofcandidates.

Whentheindexisabovezero,thelabourmarketisclassifiedas“candidateshort”.Inthesecircumstances,recruiterswillexperiencegreaterdifficultyfindingqualifiedcandidates.Whentheindexfallsbelowzerothelabourmarketisclassifiedas“candidaterich”,wherebycandidatesoutnumberjobsandthereversesituationapplies.However,evenatthesetimesthereareoftencertainskillsthatarestillinshortsupply.Anexampleofthisisintheareaofspecialisthealthcarestaff.

TheCEIdemonstratedtheshortageofsuitablyskilledworkersthroughouttheboominAustraliafrom2002/03to2007.ThentheGFChitandtheimmediateimpactcouldbeseen.Veryquicklytherebecameanoversupplyoflabourandtheindexplummeted.EvenatthattimetherewerepocketsofskillsshortagesinareassuchastheHealthsectorandMiningsectorrelatedcategories.AustraliathenemergedveryquicklyfromtheGFCin2010andaskillsshortagewasbecomingalltooapparentagain.Recently,withtherenewedconcernovertheglobaleconomy,amoodofcautionhassweptacrossbusinessesandthishasresultedintheCEIsofteningtoazeroposition.Thisisunusualandhighlightsthestallednatureofthejobmarket,neithergrowingmuchnorshrinkingmucheither.Evenwiththemarketinastalledposition,therecontinuestobeareasofskillsshortages,especiallyintheMining,EducationandHealthandCommunityServicessectors.

Feb

03

Aug

02

Feb

04

Aug

03

Feb

05

Aug

04

Feb

06

Aug

05

Feb

07

Aug

06

Feb

08

Aug

07

Feb

09

Aug

08

Feb

10

Aug

09

Feb

11

Aug

10

Feb

12

Aug

11

Aug

12

60.0

50.0

40.0

30.0

20.0

10.0

0.0

-10.0

-20.0

-30.0

-40.0

CANDIDATE SHORT (INDEX ABOVE ZERO)

CANDIDATE OVERSUPPLY (INDEX UNDER ZERO)

AUSTRALIA CANDIDATE ENVIRONMENT INDEX

35


CANDIDATE ENVIRONMENT INDEXTheCEIsatthestatelevelaremixed.

TheCandidateEnvironmentIndexesatthestatelevelaremixed.NSWisshowingaslightimprovement.InVictoria,theindexisnegativebutithasstoppedfalling.InQueenslandtheIndexhassoftenedbutisstillpositive.InSAtheIndexisweakandsoftening,indicatinganoversupplyofcandidates.OnlyinWAistheindexstrong,buteveninWAtheindexisbelowthe2010peaks.

NSW CANDIDATE ENVIRONMENT INDEX

VIC CANDIDATE ENVIRONMENT INDEX

QLD CANDIDATE ENVIRONMENT INDEX

WA CANDIDATE ENVIRONMENT INDEX

SA CANDIDATE ENVIRONMENT INDEX

80.0

30.0

-20.0

-70.0

Nov

02

May

04

Aug

03

Nov

05

Feb

05

May

07

Aug

06

Nov

08

Feb

08

May

10

Aug

09

Nov

11

Feb

11

Aug

12

CANDIDATE SHORT

CANDIDATE OVERSUPPLY

80.0

60.0

40.0

20.0

0.0

-20.0

-40.0

Nov

02

May

04

Aug

03

Nov

05

Feb

05

May

07

Aug

06

Nov

08

Feb

08

May

10

Aug

09

Nov

11

Feb

11

Aug

12

CANDIDATE SHORT


80.0

60.0

40.0

20.0

0.0

-20.0

-40.0

-60.0

Nov

02

May

04

Aug

03

Nov

05

Feb

05

May

07

Aug

06

Nov

08

Feb

08

May

10

Aug

09

Nov

11

Feb

11

Aug

12

CANDIDATE SHORT


80.0

60.0

40.0

20.0

0.0

-20.0

-40.0

Nov

02

May

04

Aug

03

Nov

05

Feb

05

May

07

Aug

06

Nov

08

Feb

08

May

10

Aug

09

Nov

11

Feb

11

Aug

12

CANDIDATE SHORT


80.0

60.0

40.0

20.0

0.0

-20.0

-40.0

-60.0

Aug

12

Aug

03

Nov

02

Feb

05

May

04

Aug

06

Nov

05

Feb

08

May

07

Aug

09

Nov

08

Feb

11

May

10

Nov

11

CANDIDATE SHORT


36


AUSTRALIAN SALARY REVIEWWagesgrowthisforecasttooutpaceinflationoverthenextyear.

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0A

ug 1

3

Feb

04

Aug

03

Feb

05

Aug

04

Feb

06

Aug

05

Feb

07

Aug

06

Feb

08

Aug

07

Feb

09

Aug

08

Feb

10

Aug

09

Feb

11

Aug

10

Feb

12

Aug

11

Aug

12

Feb

13

F


Realwages–thatis,afterallowingforinflation-havecontinuedtogrowinAustralia,althoughtherateofgrowthhasslowedduetoreneweduncertainty.IntheyeartoMay2012,totalwagesgrewbyahealthy4.1%,withgrowthevenhigheramongstfulltimeearnersat4.6%.

Salarylevelscontinuetovaryandgrowatdifferentlevelsacrossarangeofindustriesandoccupations.Forexample,fulltimeworkersintheTourismsectorhavethelowestaveragepay,at$50,500perannum,whereasthoseintheMiningsectorearnwelloverdoublethat,at$119,100perannum.Withtheslowdownincommodityprices,growthinsalariesamongsttheMiningsectoreasedbackfrom7.7%inmid2010to5.8%byMay2012.Reflectingslightly

betterconditionsintheRetailsector,wagesgrowthhasimprovedto3.0%,whereaslastyearwagesgrowthinthissectorwasfallingbehindinflation.Salariesamongstprofessionalsaregrowingat3.7%,butamongstmanagerssalariesgrowthislowerat3.0%.Ontheotherhand,amongsttheunskilled,wageshavefallen0.3%intheyeartoJune2012.

Withemploymentintentionsremainingpositive(+4.4June2012)andtheeconomycontinuingtoexpand,thewagesoutlookisoneofgrowth.Theannualrateofwagesgrowthreached4.1%byAugust2013,consistentwiththelong-termaverageforAustralia.

ACTUAL (May 12)AVERAGEWEEKLYWAGES:$1,042


0.9% growthsincethe

lastquarter

FORECAST AVERAGE WEEKLY WAGES

($)

ANNUAL GROWTH

IN WAGES (%)

QUARTERLY GROWTH IN WAGES (%)

Aug12 1,050 3.8 0.8

Nov12 1,060 3.8 0.9

Feb13 1,071 3.7 1.0

May13 1,083 3.9 1.1

Aug13 1,093 4.1 0.9

DRIVER SUMMARY

GDP

NABJobIntentions

Composite Index


37


RETROSPECTIVE

ABS DEFN. (12Monthmovingaveragein1,000s)*

FEB 12 ACTUAL

AUG 12 ACTUAL

AUG 12 FORECAST*

% VARIANCE FROM ACTUAL

AUSTRALIA 11,440 11,472 11,467 0.0

NEWSOUTHWALES 3,597 3,603 3,602 0.0

VICTORIA 2,875 2,877 2,876 0.0

QUEENSLAND 2,340 2,342 2,352 -0.4

WESTERNAUSTRALIA 1,242 1,266 1,255 0.9

SOUTHAUSTRALIA 821 818 824 -0.7

AUSTRALIAFULLTIME 8,051 8,086 8,060 0.3

AUSTRALIAPARTTIME 3,389 3,412 3,390 0.6

PROFESSIONAL/MANAGERS—AUS 3,944 3,995 3,982 0.3

PROFESSIONAL/MANAGERS—NSW 1,299 1,305 1,314 -0.7

PROFESSIONAL/MANAGERS—VIC 1,024 1,038 1,029 0.9

PROFESSIONAL/MANAGERS—QLD 743 758 751 0.9

PROFESSIONAL/MANAGERS—WA 392 407 397 2.5

PROFESSIONAL/MANAGERS—SA 274 273 276 -1.1

ENGINEERING 151 153 155* -1.3

INFORMATION&COMMUNICATIONTECHNOLOGY

523 535 524* 2.1

RETAIL 1,223 1,211 1,219 -0.7

PROPERTY&BUSINESSSERVICES 1,076 1,110 1,084 2.4

MANUFACTURING 962 960 952 0.8

HEALTH&COMMUNITYSERVICES 1,330 1,356 1,348 0.6

CONSTRUCTION&PROPERTY 1,037 1,005 1,046 -3.9

EDUCATION 864 879 871 0.9

TRANSPORT&STORAGE 574 558 573 -2.6

FINANCIALSERVICES 427 426 431 -1.2

MINING 234 260 252 3.2

GOVERNMENT 732 718 745 -3.6

TOURISM&HOSPITALITY 771 765 768 -0.4

MEDIA&MARKETING 221 227 231* -1.7

HUMANRESOURCES&RECRUITMENT

129 130 135 -3.7

AUS.WAGES $1,032 $1,042 $1,039 0.3*ABS revised the historical series, forecasts reweighted to account for the change

38


FULL TIME Peoplewhoworkatleast35hoursperweek.

PART TIME Peoplewhoworklessthan35hoursperweek.

OECD ECONOMIC GROWTH OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment’seconomicgrowthforecast.

GDP (AUSTRALIA) ValueofgoodsandservicesproducedbytheAustralianeconomy.

NON-FARM GDPValueofgoodsandservicesproducedbytheAustralianeconomybutexcludingagriculture.

GSP (STATES) Valueofgoodsandservicesproducedatthestatelevel.

UNEMPLOYMENT Peoplelookingforeitherfulltimeorparttimework.

PRIVATE CONSUMPTION Valueofservicesandproductsboughtbyconsumers.

CAPITAL EXPENDITURE Valueofinvestmentincapitalitemssuchasbuildings,machinery,etc.

CONSTRUCTION CAP. EX. Valueofinvestmentinsuchitemsasroads,buildings,etc.

BUSINESS CAP. EX.Valueofinvestmentbybusinessincapitalitemssuchasplantandequipment.

HOUSING CAP. EX.Valueofinvestmentinhousing.

MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT Valueofinvestmentinmachineryandequipment.

RESIDENTIAL BUILDING Valueofinvestmentinresidentialbuildings,includingrenovations.

NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING Valueofinvestmentinbuildings,excludingresidential.

ENGINEERING CONSTRUCTION Valueofinvestmentinitemssuchasmines,roads,bridges,etc.

TRADE WEIGHTED INDEXAnindexoftheaveragevalueofthe$AUDcomparedwiththecurrenciesofAustralia’smajortradingpartners.

IMPORTS ValueofoverseasgoodsandservicesboughtbyAustralians.

EXPORTSValueofgoodsandservicessoldoverseasbyAustralia.

NAB JOB INTENTIONS MeasurebyNABofbusinesses’intentionstoemploy.

NAB BUSINESS CONFIDENCE MeasurebyNABofbusinessconfidence.

GLOSSARY OF TERMS

39


METHODOLGYByanalysingthekeydriverscontributingtooverallstateandsectoremploymentchanges,theMyCareerEmploymentForecastprovidesemployersandrecruiterswiththebestgaugeofemploymentprospects.

EMDAemploysafour-stepprocess(seediagram),usingEMDAproprietarymethodstobuildemploymentforecastsforAustraliaandStates.ForecastsarealsobuiltforkeyindustriesasdefinedbytheAustralianBureauofStatistics.TheMyCareerEmploymentForecastisdifferentfromothermarketsentimentforecastsbecauseitforecaststheactualjobmarketintermsoftotaljobs.Ratherthanprovidinganindexunrelatedtotheactuallevelofjobs,ourforecastsgivetheindustryarealgaugeoffuturebusinessintentionsexpressedintermsofactualpersonsemployed.

HOW IT WORKSFirst,asystematicanalysisisundertakenatthenationallevelforeachindustrysectorandthemarketoverall.Thisanalysisidentifiesthemacro-factorsthatcontributetotheindustryandtotalemployment—thesearetermed“industrydrivers”.

Thesedriversincludemacro-economicvariablesandbusinessconfidenceinputssuchas:-

•PrivateConsumption

•GrossDomesticProduct

•BusinessConfidencebysector

•Populationforecasts

INDUSTRY DRIVERSUsingEMDA’sproprietarymethod,theexpectedemploymentismathematicallyderivedfromacombinationofindustrydrivers.Thisinvolvesthedevelopmentofacompositeindexofrelevantmacro-economicdriversandrealbusinessinputs.Inthiswayourforecastscombinethepowerofmacro-economicforecastingwithrealbusinessinputs.

•Australia•States•Industries•Expectations•EconomicForecasts

Identifyusingeconometricmethodsandmathematical“drivers”foreachindustryandtotaloverall.

DeriveNational,StateandIndustryforecasts.

FullreportavailableviaMyCareer.com.au

STEP 1DataAssembly

STEP 2DriverAnalysis

STEP 3IndustryForecasts

STEP 4Copy

40


DISCLAIMER

MYCAREER EMPLOYMENT FORECASTPublishedbytheMarketingDepartmentofMyCareer,TheAgeandTheSydneyMorningHerald.

Allrightsreserved.NopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedorstoredinaretrievalsystemwithoutthepriorpermissionofFairfaxMedia.

Whileeveryefforthasbeenmadetoensureaccuracyofthedatainthisreport,FairfaxMediahasnotauditedthedatasourcesandthereforedoesnotacceptanyresponsibilityinrelationtofinancialand/orbusinessdecisionsbasedonthisinformation.

©EMDAThisreportiscopyright.Apartfromfairdealingforthepurposesofprivatestudy,researchorreview,aspermittedunderthecopyrightact,nopartmaybereproducedbyanyprocesswithoutwrittenpermission.InquiriesshouldbemadetoEMDA.

OwnershipofEMDA’sintellectualproperty(includingEMDAConsumerPositioningMaps,EMDAEconomicModellingMethods)remainswithEMDA.Whileeveryefforthasbeenmadetoensureaccuracyofthedatainthisreport,EMDAhasnotauditedthedatasourcesandthereforedoesnotacceptanyresponsibilityinrelationtofinancialand/orbusinessdecisionsbasedonthisinformation.

©EMDA2012

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSResearchandforecastsbyMichaelEmerson,EconomicandMarketDevelopmentAdvisers.

Projectmanagement,designandproductionbytheMarketingDepartmentofMyCareer.


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