Employment and Housing

Paul Lankester Chief Executive Elizabeth House, Church Street Stratford-upon-Avon CV37 6HX

For further information about this agenda Contact: Alan Sheepy Telephone: 01789 260245 e-mail: [email protected]

Telephone 01789 267575 Facsimile 01789 260007 Minicom 01789 260747 DX700737 STRATFORD-ON-AVON 2 website www.stratford.gov.uk

The Cabinet Notice of Special Meeting Monday 5 September 2011 2.00 pm The Council Chamber Elizabeth House Church Street Stratford-upon-Avon Members of The Cabinet are requested to attend Leader Councillor Christopher Saint Deputy Leader Councillor Stephen Thirlwell (Customer Access Portfolio

and Partnerships) Councillor Mike Brain Technical Services Portfolio Councillor Jennie Ellard Finance and Business Administration Councillor Mike Gittus Environment & Planning Portfolio Councillor Valerie Hobbs Enterprise, Housing & Revenues Portfolio Councillor Lynda Organ Resources, People and Property Portfolio Councillor Gillian Roache Corporate Support Portfolio Observers: Councillor Eric Payne Chairman of the Council Councillor Sue Main OSC Chairman Councillor Hazel Wright Leader Liberal Democrat Group Councillor Roger Wright Leader Independent Group

THE CABINET

5 September 2011

AGENDA 1. Apologies for Absence 2. Disclosure of Interests Members are reminded that the Code of Conduct provides that should they have a

prejudicial interest in any matter under discussion and providing the matter is considered in public session, they are entitled to make representations and answer questions if members of the public are granted the same entitlement. Members must leave the room before the ensuing debate and vote and must not attempt to improperly influence a decision about that matter. NOTE: Personal Interests relating to any item on the Agenda arising by virtue of the members serving on the following organisations are declared by the Councillors indicated: As a Warwickshire County Councillor Councillors Gittus and Saint As a member of Stratford Local Strategic Partnership Councillor Saint As a member of the Coventry, Solihull and Warwickshire Leaders Councillor Saint As a member of Alcester Town Council Councillor Gittus As Clerk to Priors Marston Parish Council Councillor Ellard

Corporate Support Portfolio

3. Employment Land Study (Pages 1 - 18) To receive a report that describes the findings of the Employment Land Study

undertaken by consultants commissioned by the Council to inform and provide evidence for the Local Development Framework (LDF) Core Strategy process, and assess the implications of the Employment Land Study for development planning in the District that are intended to be used to inform the amount and broad location of future employment development in the District.

4. Housing Provision Options Study (Pages 19 - 44) To receive a report that describes options for housing provision which are the outcome

of a study undertaken for the Council by consultants and assesses the implications of these options for development planning within the district.

5. Urgent Business To consider any business which, in the opinion of the Chairman, is urgent in accordance

with the provisions of Section 100B (4) of the Local Government Act 1972

CHIEF EXECUTIVE

Please note: The next meeting of The Cabinet is scheduled to take place on Monday 12 September 2011

THE CABINET 5 September 2011

Subject: Employment Land Study Lead Officer: Stephanie Chettle Contact on 01789 260399 Lead Member/ Portfolio Holder: Councillor G Roache

Summary The report describes the findings of the Employment Land Study which was commissioned by the District Council to inform and provide evidence for the Local Development Framework (LDF) Core Strategy process. The report assesses the implications of the Employment Land Study for development planning in the District. It is intended to use the Employment Land Study to inform the amount and broad location of future employment development in the District. Recommendation That the contents of the Employment Land Study be received as evidence to inform the preparation of the Local Development Framework Core Strategy.

1 Background/Information 1.1 Stratford-on-Avon District Council is currently preparing its Local

Development Framework Core Strategy. This document will supersede much of the adopted Local Plan Review. It will determine the overall extent of housing and other forms of development in the district over the period 2008 to 2028, as well as setting out policies and proposals regarding the location of development within the district

1.2 Two drafts of the Core Strategy document have been published and have been subject to consultation. Both were framed in the context of employment requirements emerging through the West Midlands Regional Spatial Strategy (WMRSS) Phase Two Revision process. However, progress on the WMRSS Revision ceased because of the Coalition Government’s intention to revoke Regional Spatial Strategies expressed in the Localism Bill currently making its way through Parliament.

1.3 With the revocation of Regional Spatial Strategies imminent, the Government has made clear that it will be for local planning authorities to establish the development requirements for their area for the purposes of compiling a Core Strategy. Authorities have been advised in national guidance, such as Planning Policy Statement 4, that the identification of employment requirements should be based on sound evidence, while

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authorities have to demonstrate that policies are based on robust evidence as part of the Core Strategy’s tests of soundness.

1.4 The most recent national policy statement on economic development is The Plan for Growth, published by HM Treasury and the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills in March 2011. This statement sets out the Coalition Government’s overarching goals for economic development against the context of the recent economic recession. It sets out the Government’s view that over the last decade the UK economy has become seriously unbalanced and heavily indebted, masking a decline in economic competitiveness. There are four key ambitions set out for the UK economy:

• To create the most competitive tax system in the G20 • To make the UK one of the best places in Europe to start, finance

and grow a business • To encourage investment and exports as a route to a more

balanced economy; and • To create a more educated workforce that is the most flexible in

Europe. 1.5 National planning policy also supports the Government’s commitment to

promote economic growth. In particular, Planning Policy Statement 4 (PPS4) provides the planning policy framework for economic development in urban and rural areas. It outlines that development plans should set out a clear economic vision and strategy for their area which positively and proactively encourages sustainable economic growth. The draft National Planning Policy Framework also highlights that planning for prosperity is a key priority and that the planning system should build a strong, responsive and competitive economy by ensuring that sufficient land of the right type, and in the right places, is available to allow growth and innovation.

1.6 The Sustainable Community Strategy for Stratford on Avon District and the District Council’s Corporate Strategy (2011 – 2015) both promote a buoyant economy and support for business growth in the District. The District Council is also in the process of formulating its own Business Strategy.

1.7 The Employment Land Study has been prepared in accordance with Government guidance published in 2004 by the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister (now CLG), namely ‘Employment Land Reviews: Guidance Note’. This best practice document helps Local Authorities assess the demand and supply of employment land in their Districts and also, to identify an up to date and balanced portfolio of employment sites in the Local Development Framework. The Employment Land Study

1.8 The Employment Land Study assesses the amount and type of employment land that is required in the District to assist in maintaining the economic health of the area and in supporting a supply of job opportunities for its residents.

1.9 In preparing the Study, consideration has been given to the stock and use of existing employment land, the need for and role of additional

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employment land and, from that assessment, appropriate broad locations for future employment development.

1.10 The Study focuses on the provision of land for Class B uses1 as defined in the Town & Country Planning (Use Classes) Order, plus sui generis uses that are similar in nature.

1.11 Due to the close interrelationship, the Study has been prepared alongside the Housing Provision Options Study to ensure consistency of approach. A note explaining the inter-relationship between the two studies is included in Appendix 1.

2. KEY FINDINGS 2.1 The Study covers a number of contextual issues relating to the District’s

economic circumstances. (i) Sub-Regional context

2.2 A Local Economic Assessment produced for the Coventry & Warwickshire Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) reveals that across the sub-region there has been a slower than national average growth in the economy in recent years and productivity levels have been falling. However, this overall picture masks significant variations in within the sub-region. The southern part, including Stratford District, typically performs more strongly across a range of economic indicators, including levels of enterprise, skills and knowledge intensive activities.

2.3 The assessment stresses the need for sub-regional partners to create an economic environment which facilitates and supports the development of high-growth companies by removing barriers that prevent growth and fostering and developing innovation. There is potential to develop and exploit opportunities around the application of ideas and research, such as in the automotive, medical, computer games and low-carbon sectors.

2.4 The LEP strategy states three priorities: • Create an environment where it is easy for businesses to start, locate

and thrive; • Accelerate economic growth through targeted support in key strategic

sectors; • Tackle the skills problem by aligning support and demand. (ii) District’s economic profile

2.5 The main headlines identified in the Study regarding the District’s economic performance include the following: • It contributes around £2.4 billion to the national economy. • There are about 53,000 jobs in the District, with strong employment

growth between 2003 and 2008 but some decline since then. • Stratford town is the main employment centre, supporting around

17,500 jobs.

1 Class B uses comprise the following: B1a – offices; B1b – research and development; B1c – light industry; B2 – general industry; B8 – storage and distribution

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• The District has a strongly performing business base, with around 8,100 businesses.

• Levels of enterprise are very strong. The last decade has seen high business start-up rates and stronger than average survival rates. The self-employment rate is also high.

• Reflecting a strong enterprise culture, the District contains a higher than average proportion of small (less than 50 employees) businesses.

• Employment activity is spread across a relatively broad range of sectors. Around a quarter of businesses in the District are classified as being knowledge-based.

• The District’s working age population is relatively small and has fallen in recent years due to an above average and increasing proportion of older residents.

• Levels of labour market skills are relatively high in the District. • Levels of worklessness in the District are relatively low and with the

claimant count falling in recent months. • The proportion of residents who live and work in the same area varies

according to settlement size. Around 65% of Stratford’s residents also work in the town.

• There is a growing proportion of people in employment who work from home which has implications for the amount of employment land required.

2.6 An economic profile has been produced in the Study for each of the main settlements in the District. (iii) Commercial Market Performance

2.7 According to national statistics, at April 2008 there was a total of 1.39 million square metres of commercial floorspace in the District, of which 1.15 million sq.m. was in Class B uses. Stratford District has 10% more Class B floorspace than Redditch Borough, but 11% less than Warwick District. It has a higher volume of office space than Redditch and Daventry, but just under half the level of that in Warwick.

2.8 The strength and potential growth in the office market is affected by the proximity of Warwick/Leamington which has a greater critical mass of such businesses, a larger workforce catchment and is more accessible by rail and from the M40.

2.9 Over the decade 1998-2008, employment floorspace in Class B uses within the District increased by 34%, performing strongly relative to the 7% growth achieved in the West Midlands region and 9% nationally.

2.10 During that period, the District saw a net growth of 31% in office floorspace, a growth in industrial floorspace of 18% (contrasting with a decline at regional and national levels), and a substantial growth in warehousing. The latter two can mostly be attributed to developments at Gaydon Proving Ground and Long Marston Depot.

2.11 While there is a reasonable level of office floorspace, the market is focused on small and medium-sized premises and relatively local occupiers. There are few corporate or national businesses of this nature in the District.

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2.12 The industrial market in the District is also focused on small and medium-sized properties and there is a limited demand for or supply of large warehouse/distribution sheds.

(iv) Business Survey 2.13 To complement and inform the Employment Land Study, the District

Council carried out a survey of businesses in the District. Key findings of the survey include: • Stratford-upon-Avon town is the main focus of businesses in the

District. • Nearly 20% of businesses in the District are found in rural locations,

outside the nine main settlements. • The majority of businesses in the District are independent with no

other branches elsewhere. Only 12% are subsidiaries of larger companies.

• The majority of businesses in the District are micro-businesses (up to 10 employees). Businesses with more than 20 staff employ only 8% of full-time workers in the District.

• Almost half of businesses have been located in the District for over ten years, while only 6% have moved to the District in the last year.

• About 88% of businesses believe their existing premises are suitable for their current or likely future needs.

• Nearly 72% of businesses expressed their intention to stay within the District. Of those showing an interest in relocating, about 69% wish to stay within the same settlement where they are currently located.

• Over half of the businesses wishing to relocate believe the District does not have suitable sites or premises available for their needs. Of these, just over 46% suggested sites should be provided in or on the edge of Stratford town.

• About 12% of businesses regarded the provision of more employment land in the District as a way of assisting businesses and the local economy.

3 Proposed approach set out in the Study 3.1 Given the current context whereby the economy is just emerging from

recession, the Study adopts a scenarios-based approach to forecasting the need for additional employment land. A number of alternative demand-based forecasts have been applied taking into account the potential level of employment growth and trends in labour supply. The Study also considers the take-up rate of employment land development within the District in recent years.

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3.2 The following scenarios for future employment in the District have been

identified and assessed: Scenario 1 Base Uses a forecast model produced by

Cambridge Econometrics. Scenario 2 Austerity Takes the Base forecast and assumes a

slower growth rate for public sector employment.

Scenario 3 Convergence Assumes future employment reflects that anticipated for the top performing part of the sub-region, ie. Warwick District.

Scenario 4 Labour Supply Assumes the likely employment implications of projected changes in the District’s population.

3.3 It should be noted that the Employment Land Study has not modelled

for economic decline (Option 3 of the Housing Provision Options Study, see Appendix 1) as this policy choice would not be consistent with the national policy framework detailed above in section 1 and would not adequately meet the social and economic needs of the District.

3.4 The Study gives a cautionary note about forecasting. It is clearly difficult to predict with any certainty the levels of future employment growth in an area, particularly when there have been significant economic and political changes. Forecasts provide an indication of what might happen in terms of future employment growth but should not be treated as definitive.

3.5 In working up an assessment of how much additional employment land and floorspace should be provided in the District up to 2028, a number of specific matters have been considered: • An element of demand will arise from existing companies moving

premises, known as ‘churn’. • For an economy to be successful, a degree of flexibility in the supply

of land and premises is required to provide choice. • In reality, some employment land is used for non-Class B uses. • The amount of employment land that was available at the base date of

2008. This includes land with planning permission and sites allocated in the District Local Plan.

• A consistent set of assumptions on plot ratios have been used in order to translate floorspace into land requirements.

3.6 A complex analysis of the scenarios is provided in the Study which leads to a wide range of conclusions and recommendations being made on key aspects of the District’s economy and future employment land provision.

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4. Conclusions and Recommendations (i) Economic prospects

4.1 The Study indicates that employment growth within Stratford-on-Avon District over the 20 year plan period 2008-28 is unlikely to match the levels achieved over the previous decade. Between 1998-2008 employment in the District grew by 12% (5,800 jobs in absolute terms), and was stronger than regional and national trends. Over the 2008-28 period, the base forecast indicates that employment will increase by just 0.4% (250 jobs), although this arises largely as a result of the time period used. Employment is expected to increase from a 2011 base to 2028 by 6.6% (4,090 jobs).

4.2 Over the longer-term, Stratford-on-Avon District is considered to be relatively well positioned. It lies within one of the most economically dynamic parts of the West Midlands and located close to the M40 corridor that connects London and Birmingham. It benefits from a high quality of life and environment, a strong skills base and high levels of economic participation. It is entrepreneurial, with higher than average business births, relatively strong business survival rates and self-employment almost twice regional and national averages. Whilst recognising macro-level risks, the District’s economic structure means that it is reasonable to expect it to be more economically resilient than many other areas.

4.3 The potential for growth in commercial floorspace needs, however, to be considered with reference to the wider sub-regional market. There is a larger and more established office market in Warwick and Leamington Spa which offers better accessibility by rail and road and draws on a larger labour force within the local catchment than Stratford-upon-Avon. Similarly the market for industrial and distribution space in the District is of a smaller and more localised scale than, for instance, Coventry and Daventry which are established centres for these activities respectively.

4.4 Economic weaknesses or threats include housing supply/affordability, which if not addressed could result in longer distance commuting and could potentially constrain economic growth; as well as the need to improve transport links (in terms of both highways and public transport). (ii) Supporting Key Businesses and Sectors

4.5 Emerging national planning policies, as contained within the draft National Planning Policy Framework, are strongly supportive of sustainable economic growth, setting out that planning must operate to encourage growth and not act as an impediment.

4.6 An appropriate strategy for economic development should look to create the conditions to allow businesses to prosper and grow. This will require a combination of measures to address skills and labour supply; the commercial property offer; wider infrastructure; business support measures; ICT infrastructure and cluster and supply-chain development.

4.7 Stratford-on-Avon District Council is well-placed to take forward key aspects of this through the development of its Core Strategy, particularly in providing a framework for ensuring that the commercial property offer meets identified needs and demand. In working with wider partners

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through the Local Enterprise Partnership, it should seek to support action on the other fronts.

4.8 At a sector level, key higher value-added sectors in which there is evident growth potential in the District include advanced engineering and high-value manufacturing; automotive and low carbon mobility; business and professional services; computing, software and electronics; creative and cultural industries; and low carbon technologies. (iii) Supporting Enterprise and Innovation

4.9 Against a context of increasing international and domestic competition, innovation will be essential to maintaining and improving performance of both the manufacturing and service sectors. Research and innovation, business-to-business collaboration and knowledge sharing are critical to this. The District Council should work proactively to support these and ensure that planning is not an impediment to business growth and innovation.

4.10 It is likely that the District’s geography and quality of life will support further growth of small and home-based businesses, including within rural areas. There is potential for both home and remote working to increase and for growth of home-based businesses over the plan period. It is important that the local authority works to provide support to the small business base in these areas.

4.11 Providing appropriate employment space for small businesses will also be important. The district is evidently a very entrepreneurial area, and it will be important that this is nurtured and encouraged. Stakeholder consultation undertaken as part of the Study highlighted a need to develop provision of managed workspace or incubation space for small businesses, particularly targeted at high growth rather than lifestyle businesses.

(iv) Employment Floorspace and Land Requirements 4.12 The Study forecasts future requirements for employment land and

floorspace. Forecasts have been derived from the various economic scenarios, as well as on past take-up rates. The following table outlines the floorspace forecasts derived for each scenario.

Table 1: Floorspace Forecasts, 2008-28 B1a & B1b

(sq m) B1c & B2 (sq m)

B8 (sq m)

Total (sq.m)

Base Scenario 50,279 -20,668 15,326 44,937

Austerity Scenario 49,240 -20,129 15,434 44,546 Convergence Scenario

82,045 -18,616 15,738 79,166

Labour Supply Scenario

42,850 -14,937 10,907 38,821

Past Completions Scenario

115,500 -53,580 41,780 103,700

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4.13 The range of figures presented reflects differences in the forecast methodologies combined with uncertainty regarding economic performance and trends in the forthcoming economic cycle.

4.14 Using standard plot ratios, the table below calculates resultant employment land requirements.

Table 2: Employment Land Forecasts, 2008-28 B1a & B1b

(hectares) B1c & B2

(hectares) B8

(hectares) Total

(hectares) Base Scenario 17 -5 4 16

Austerity Scenario 16 -5 4 15 Convergence Scenario

27 -5 4 26

Labour Supply Scenario

14 -4 3 13

Past Completions Scenario

39 -13 10 36

4.15 The Study concludes it is likely, given the economic context, that

employment floorspace and land take-up will be more moderate than indicated by the past completions scenario; based on the expectations of future economic growth relative to performance in the pre-recession decade. Employment growth of 4% is expected in the Convergence Scenario over 20 years compared to the 12% employment growth achieved between 1998-2008. It is not unreasonable to assume that land take-up in the District over the plan period will be lower than has occurred over the past 10 years. However it is important that land supply does not constrain economic growth.

4.16 In overall land terms, there is a potential surplus of between 44.5 – 69 hectares of land across the District for the plan period to 2028. This is primarily for industrial activities. Despite this, the Study considers that limited additional employment allocations are appropriate to support higher value economic growth in B1a and B1b sectors over the plan period. It should be noted that some industrial sites may not be appropriate for re-designation as B1a and B1b use classes, hence the need for de-allocation and additional allocation.

4.17 On that basis it is recommended that it would be appropriate to plan for

the provision of an additional 25-30 hectares (net) of employment land over the plan period 2008 to 2028. This figure is over and above the supply of employment land available at 2008 with planning permission or allocated in the District Local Plan. (v) Qualitative Assessment and Site-Based Matters

4.18 The report’s quantitative assessment relates to the overall supply of employment land and floorspace at a district-wide level. Through an assessment of a wide range of existing employment sites, a detailed analysis of the quality of the existing main employment sites and premises in the District has been undertaken. This has been used to

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derive conclusions regarding the portfolio of employment sites in the District, and to make recommendations for limited future allocations of land to support economic development and the sustainability of settlements, as well as possible opportunities for certain employment sites to be redeveloped for other uses.

4.19 The conclusions are structured around clusters of settlements with the overall aim of delivering an appropriate supply of employment sites to meet the needs of all parts of the District as indicated below. It should be noted the conclusions of the report do not represent District Council policy. Any site specific issues will be subject to more detailed consideration before informing the third draft of the Core Strategy and other Development Plan Documents, all of which will be subject to full public consultation.

The key points made by GL Hearn are as follows: 4.19.1 North-West of the District

Alcester - a 5 hectare extension to the Arden Forest Industrial Estate should be provided for. A larger allocation may be justified depending on the scale of housing development in the town. Studley – further employment land, such as an extension to the Birmingham Road area, could be justified depending on the scale of housing proposals. The Troy Industrial Estate has potential for redevelopment to non-employment uses. Henley-in-Arden – additional employment provision might be considered if the town is to grow significantly. Development of small workspace should be supported.

4.19.2 North-East of the District Southam - rationale for a further large employment allocation is questionable unless there is significant housing growth. Harbury Cement Works – any major employment development should be associated with use of the rail network for freight movements. Southam Cement Works – should it become available, a flexible approach should be adopted to bring forward a mixed-use redevelopment scheme.

4.19.3 Stratford-upon-Avon As the largest town in the District, and with the prospect of further housing development, an additional 5-10 hectares of land should be allocated for Class B1 uses, with a focus on attracting higher value-added employment. There is potential for selective release of existing poorer quality employment land, such as Masons Road and Western Road, for mixed-use redevelopment.

4.19.4 East of the District Kineton – existing industrial estate should be retained but there is no requirement for additional provision to be made. Wellesbourne – potential for small-scale B1 development to help diversify its economic base should be considered, particularly if housing growth is proposed. There is a need to improve the intensity of use on the M40

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Distribution Park by supporting a wider range of employment-generating uses. Gaydon Proving Ground – site is of strategic significance and has potential for supporting a wider range of research and development uses. Consideration should be given to allowing further employment development beyond the boundary defined in the Local Plan, guided by a comprehensive masterplanning process.

4.19.5 South of the District Bidford-on-Avon – existing employment provision should be protected.

Additional provision of land is not required unless there is large-scale housing development in the village.

Shipston-on-Stour – land is available for employment development at Tilemans Lane which would appear adequate. A site on Campden Road (ex-Norgren) is currently being marketed for employment use. A mixed-use development is a more realistic approach for the site; a significant employment component could attract investment away from Tilemans Lane.

Long Marston Depot – there is a considerable level of employment floorspace at this relatively rural location and one which does not benefit from strong strategic accessibility by road. Some risk is attached to the likely level of demand for employment space that can be attracted.

4.19.6 Rural sites A range of such sites have been surveyed as part of the Study. They are

generally well occupied and actively used, and play an important part in supporting the rural economy. While the allocation of additional land is not recommended, the continuing employment use of these sites should be supported and protected.

The sustainability of the rural economy should also be supported by permitting the reuse and, where appropriate, redevelopment of farm buildings for other employment-generating activities

4.19.7 Strategic Employment Development Limited potential is foreseen for such development within the District,

reflecting in part the modest size of its main settlements, the level of strategic road and rail accessibility, as well as the substantial pipeline of employment land in Warwick District and at Coventry (including the potential Enterprise Zone proposals).

It is considered that additional employment provision will largely be targeted at the ‘local’ market. That said, Gaydon Proving Ground should be recognised as being a strategic employment site for specific purposes.

(vi) Criteria for release of industrial land 4.20 The Study recommends implementing a criteria-based policy for

considering the release of industrial sites for other uses. This might be through identification of the better quality employment sites that should be protected within the Local Plan, together with implementation of a set of criteria for assessing the implications of releasing specific employment sites.

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5. Options available to the Cabinet The following options are available to the Cabinet:

Option 1: • To receive the contents of the Employment Land Study as

evidence to inform the Core Strategy. Option 2:

• To identify further issues that need to be addressed in relation to the Employment Land Study.

Option 3: • To discount the Employment Land Study as evidence and to base

the District’s future employment requirement on an alternative source of evidence.

5. Members’ Comments 5.1 Councillor Gill Roache, Portfolio Holder, Corporate Support:- I welcome the production of independent evidence to advise us in our

production of the new Core Strategy, which will underpin development in the District up to 2028.

6 Implications of the proposal 6.1 Legal/Human Rights Implications 6.1.1 None. 6.2 Financial 6.2.1 None identified. The cost of the Study has been covered by the approved

Local Development Framework budget. 6.3 Environmental 6.3.1 The provision of additional employment land in the District will need to

take into account a range of environmental issues and potential impacts. Any draft Core Strategy policies will need to be subject to Sustainability Appraisal.

6.4 Corporate Strategy 6.4.1 One of the core aims of the District Council’s Corporate Strategy is ‘A

District where business and enterprise can flourish’, with a stated outcome of ‘increased economic vitality across the District’. The Study identifies how this aim can be achieved through the provision of employment land and other aspects of policy in relation to economic issues.

6.5 Equality Impact Assessment 6.5.1 A key aspect of employment land provision is to provide sufficient and

suitable job opportunities for local people. The Study will assist the District Council in devising appropriate planning policies relating to this issue. The policies of the third draft of the Core Strategy will be subject to a full Equality Impact Assessment.

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7 Risk Assessment 7.1 Preparation of the Core Strategy is contingent upon endorsement of the

evidence base. Without this, preparation of the Core Strategy will be delayed.

7.2 The Council must base its policy decisions in relation to the Core Strategy on a robust evidence base. If the Council does not wish to endorse the GL Hearn study it must commission an alternative study and there would be cost implications and delays in the preparation of the Core Strategy that would result from this. It is not advisable to make policy decisions that are not supported by evidence from a reputable source as this will result in a significant risk that the Core Strategy would then be found to be unsound at Examination in Public. This would have considerable implications for the District Council in terms of delaying the establishment of an up-to-date development plan and framework for planning decisions. Prolonging the Core Strategy process would have resource implications and would add to the Council’s expenditure in this area of responsibility.

8 Conclusion 8.1 The Study provides a comprehensive and robust basis for considering the

amount, type and broad location of additional employment land that should be provided in the District for the period 2008-2028. It also includes guidance on the treatment of existing employment land and a range of other matters regarding local employment-related policy. There is an inextricable link between employment land provision and housing provision in the District.

8.2 The Study itself does not represent District Council policy. This will only become the case once it is applied to the planning policies in the LDF, initially in the Core Strategy. However, since it is a public document, its contents will have to be treated as a material consideration for the purposes of assessing and determining planning applications.

Liam Nevin

HEAD OF CORPORATE SUPPORT Background papers: Employment Land Study produced by GL Hearn (July 2011)

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Stratford-on-Avon District Council Note on Inter-relationships between Housing Options Study & Employment Land Study A scenarios-based approach has been used to assess housing need/demand and future employment growth in these two studies. Both studies recognise that there is a relationship between housing need/demand and employment growth. The housing study focuses on establishing housing need/demand. It recognises that there are a number of drivers of need/demand including population and demographic trends, economic performance and quality of life. It includes three principal economic-driven projections:

• PROJ 6 Trend-based growth in Labour Demand • PROJ 7 Growth of 5% in Labour Demand 2008-28 • PROJ 8 Growth of 10% in Labour Demand 2008-28

PROJ 6 is taken forward into the recommendations and forms the basis of Option 2 (13,000 homes). Two other options are presented for consideration. Option 1 is based on past population trends and PROJ 1, the main trend-based projection. Option 3 is a policy-driven scenario based on net migration levels which are 25% lower than this. These are not driven by economic variables. The Housing Options Study includes an assessment of changes in labour supply which arise from the projections developed, including the three options. Of the three options proposed:

• Option 2 proposes delivery of 13,000 homes between 2008-28. This is modelled to result in a growth in labour supply of 2,490 (4.1%) on 2008 levels.

• Option 1 proposes delivery of 10,350 homes between 2008-28. This is modelled to result in a reduction in labour supply of -960 (-1.6%) on 2008 levels. The reduction in labour supply is principally linked to the changing age structure of the population.

• Option 3 proposes delivery of 8,200 homes between 2008-28. As in-migration is lower still relative to the other options, this results in a reduction in labour supply of -3,675 (-6.0%) on 2008 levels.

Labour supply could potentially constrain employment growth where job opportunities cannot be filled. It could also contribute to wage inflation (as companies compete for employees). However the labour market is not constrained by the local authority boundary, and a decrease in the workforce in Stratford-on-Avon District (as in Options 1 and 3) could equally result in a reduction in out-commuting (particularly where similar paid/skilled jobs are created locally to those

Item 3

Appendix 1

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people are currently commuting out to) or an increase in in-commuting to the District to work from surrounding areas (or a combination of the two). In this context it is therefore important to understand and explore the differences between labour demand and labour supply. The Employment Land Study has considered four scenarios for employment growth. Three of these are driven by scenarios for employment demand, these being:

1. Baseline Economic Growth – as forecast by the IPM 2. Austerity Scenario – taking account of economic risks, particularly public

sector 3. Convergence Scenario – better performance particularly in higher value-

added sectors A fourth scenario is considered, the Labour Supply Scenario. The Labour Supply scenario in the ELS is based on PROJ 1/ Option 1 within the Housing Options Study and consistent with it. The scope of the economic scenarios was agreed with you on 15th June. These have been modelled since then by Regeneris. The changes in total employment resulting from these demand-based scenarios is shown in the table below. Regeneris have just send these figures to us. Figure 1: Labour Demand Scenarios – Forecasts of Total Employment Scenario Total Change in Employment

2008-2028

Base 250 Convergence 2,635 Austerity -168 Please note that these differ from the figures presented within the ELS Report, which are for Full-time Equivalent (FTE) employment and exclude self-employment. The Baseline Scenario in the ELR (and as shown in Figure 1 above) is driven by the IPM forecast from Cambridge Econometrics. This is a forecast of employment demand. This scenario/forecast broadly underpins PROJ 6/Option 2 in the Housing Options Study. However while a reduction in employment within the District of around 4000 jobs between 2008-13 was projected in the forecasts, labour market indicators do not suggest that the employment rate (a labour supply indicator) has reduced by anything like this degree – indeed data from the Annual Population Survey suggest it increased between 2008-10. This suggests that while employment

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within the District may have dropped, residents have been able to find jobs elsewhere (including by commuting). On this basis we modified the forecast in the Housing Options Study, which is for labour supply, to assume that this grows by c. 2,500 over the 2008-28 period in PROJ 6/ Option 2. For the purposes of demographic modelling, this still seems a reasonable assumption to make given the labour market evidence. The base and austerity scenarios in the ELS model sensitivities around the base forecast, recognising that there are both upside and downside risks to the base IPM forecast. Thus the level of growth in labour supply shown in Option 2 (based on PROJ 6) in the Housing Options Study (an increase of 2490 between 2008-28) is more akin to the Convergence Scenario in the ELS. This still seems reasonable as a high option for the Housing Study and aligns well with the objectives of the LEP and the draft National Planning Policy Framework. Option 3 within the Housing Options Study does not represent a positive framework for strategic planning, and does not really accord with emerging national policy. The draft NPPF clearly sets out that the planning system should support economic growth. It was included within the Housing Options Study of highlighting the implications of under provision of housing vis-à-vis demand. Within the ELR, we have tested downside risks to the base scenario through the austerity scenario. It does not seem appropriate to test the implications of a much more significant reduction in employment over the plan period. There are also practical issues, not least in how we distribute losses of employment by sector (which reduces the accuracy and credibility of the scenario). Thus there is not a specific scenario within the ELS which aligns to Option 3 in the Housing Options Study. Within the ELS we have sought to develop the demand scenarios using existing information where possible, aiming to limit the amount of assumptions included within the forecasting. This is a key reason why the scenarios are based around the IPM and the Convergence/Austerity scenarios which were modelled as part of the SQW/CE work on housing demand in the West Midlands (which we have updated). It helps to support their credibility. If we were to try to link directly the employment scenarios to the housing scenarios, we would need to make a number of assumptions on the profile of employment change by sector which would significantly reduce their credibility as demand forecasts.

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THE CABINET 5 SEPTEMBER 2011

Subject: Housing Provision Options Lead Officer: Stephanie Chettle Contact on 01789 260399 Lead Member/ Portfolio Holder: Councillor G. Roache

Summary The report describes options for housing provision which are the outcome of a study undertaken for the Council by consultants and assesses the implications of these options for development planning within the district. Recommendations (1) That the contents of the Housing Provision Options Study be

received as evidence to inform the preparation of the Core Strategy;

(2) That an option be identified as regards housing provision that will enable further progress to be made on preparation of the third draft of the LDF Core Strategy and which will assist the assessment of the five year housing land supply in the district.

1. Background/Information 1.1 Stratford-on-Avon District Council is currently preparing its Local

Development Framework Core Strategy. This document will supersede much of the adopted Local Plan Review. It will determine the overall extent of housing and other forms of development in the district over the period 2008 to 2028, as well as setting out policies and proposals regarding the location of development within the district.

1.2 Two drafts of the Core Strategy document have been published and have been subject to consultation. Both were framed in the context of housing requirements emerging through the West Midlands Regional Spatial Strategy (WMRSS) Phase Two Revision process. However, progress on the WMRSS Revision ceased because of the Coalition Government’s intention to revoke Regional Spatial Strategies expressed in the Localism Bill currently making its way through Parliament.

1.3 With the revocation of Regional Spatial Strategies imminent, the Government has made clear that it will be for local planning authorities to establish the development requirements for their area for the purposes of compiling a Core Strategy. Authorities have been advised that the identification of housing requirements should be based on sound evidence of need and demand, while authorities have to demonstrate that policies

Item 4

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are based on robust evidence as part of the Core Strategy’s tests of soundness.

1.4 Additionally, PPS3 sets out detailed guidance on how the level of housing provision should be determined for the purposes of development planning. Account needs to be taken of evidence relating to current and future levels of need and demand, and levels of housing affordability derived from a range of sources including national household growth projections, economic growth forecasts, land availability, the need to improve affordability, sustainability appraisal and the impact on infrastructure.

1.5 While a great deal of evidence on housing issues in the region was compiled to inform the Phase Two Revision of the RSS, including proposals for housing growth at the borough and district level, that evidence is becoming out of date and its relevance to current circumstances has weakened. Moreover, this evidence gathering was mainly undertaken at a strategic level and the particular circumstances of individual boroughs and districts in the region have not featured to any great degree in this process.

1.6 Local sources of data on housing need do exist, for example parish-based housing needs surveys and the housing waiting list, but they have certain drawbacks such as partial coverage, surveys becoming out-of-date and difficulties in relating them to the longer term. They also derive from assessments that are not strong in relating housing provision to other important factors such as the economic prospects of the area.

2. Housing Provision Options Study 2.1 In view of the need for robust and relevant housing data, a brief for a

study to examine housing provision options for the district was drawn up and supported by the District Council’s LDF Working Group on 18th January 2011, the minutes of which were received and noted by Cabinet on 7th February 2011.

2.2 Following a competitive tendering process, on 15th March 2011 the District Council commissioned GL Hearn to undertake the study. GL Hearn is a consultancy that has extensive experience of working for local authorities on housing provision studies. As it has done for other authorities, the consultancy called on the expertise of JG Consulting to carry out the demographic modelling needed for such a study. The study was completed in June 2011.

2.3 In summary the brief asked the consultants to: • Undertake a rigorous assessment of the economic and demographic

context for housing provision; • Identify options for housing provision over the planning period 2008-

2028, taking into account demographic and economic factors, as well as growth proposals in surrounding areas;

• Recommend an option for housing provision based upon consideration of social, environmental and economic effects; and

• Consider the implications on provision of housing of different tenures, types, needs and sizes and for groups with special needs.

2.4 The study examines housing provision options for the district as a whole. It does not attempt to examine growth options for individual settlements.

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The consideration of the different ways housing growth might be distributed within the district was not part of the consultants’ brief. Resolving this fundamental issue is the next critical phase in preparing the third draft of the Core Strategy and progress is dependent on the outcome of Cabinet’s consideration of the Housing Provision Options Study.

3. Main Findings of the Study 3.1 In view of the critical importance of the study, Members are strongly

advised to carefully examine the full report which is provided with an Executive Summary. However, to assist Members, the consultants’ main findings are set out by officers in Appendix 1 to this report. This information supplements the recent briefing given to Members on 17th August and 1st September 2011 by the Planning Policy Team and GL Hearn.

GL Hearn’s Assessment of the Development Options 3.2 GL Hearn have presented three main options for consideration and have

provided an appraisal of these different scenarios. However, it is for the District Council to come to its own view of the appropriateness of the housing provision options identified by the consultants, taking account of the up-to-date information available and how each of the options measures up to the District Council’s own priorities, to national policy and to the achievement of sustainability objectives. Nonetheless, to help the Council reach a robust and defensible position, GL Hearn have made an initial appraisal of the three main options. This appraisal is summarised in Table 1 below.

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Table 1 - Three Main Options – Summary of Consultants’ Assessment

Option Population Growth 2008-28

Net In-migration Housing Growth 2008-28

Employment Growth 2008-28

Assessment of Impact – Consultants Views

1 (Main Trend-Based)

12,400 = 10.4% increase 2008-28 (annual growth rates about two thirds of those of the last decade)

960 persons p.a. which is the same as the 1999-2009 average but is 15% less than 2004-2009 average of 1,140 p.a.

10,350 dwellings – 517 p.a., 7% above average annual house completion rate for 2000-2010 but broadly consistent with pre-recession rates (1995-2008). It would result in a 19.7% growth in the housing stock.

960 fewer people in employment (-1.6%) due to age structure of population

• meets local need and demand for housing • does not support growth in workforce/labour

supply and does little to support economic growth

• reduction of 4% in population under 15 which could impact on viability of schools

• could hinder the achievement of a more balanced population structure

• likely to require the use of greenfield land for development with an impact on environmental and sustainability objectives

• impact on character of district potentially greater than Option 3 but could be mitigated by careful siting and design of development

• overall impact in social, economic and environmental terms is considered to be moderate

2 (Economic-Led)

18,300 = 15.4% increase 2008-2028 (similar growth p.a. to that during the last decade)

1260 persons p.a. which is 31% above the 1999-2009 average and 10% above the 2004-2009 average.

12,960 dwellings – 648 p.a., 35% above average annual house completion rate for 2000-2010. It would result in a 24.6% growth in the housing stock.

2,490 more people in employment (+4.1%) – based on expected employment growth in county and labour market performing quite strongly through recession

• makes the greatest contribution to meeting housing need and demand

• positively supports the economy by enabling a modest increase in working age population

• modest increase in the working and school age population would help to retain a balanced population structure and support viability of schools

• highest potential impact on the environment with higher levels of greenfield development than are likely to be required in other options

• greatest potential impact on the character of the district if development is not carefully planned, but again this could be mitigated

• overall impact in social and economic terms is strongly positive but environmental impact would be higher

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2

3 (25% Reduction in Net In-migration)

7,560 = 6.4% increase 2008-28 (annual growth rates less than half those of the last decade)

725 persons p.a. which is 25% below the 1999-2009 average and 36% below the 2004-2009 average.

8,230 dwellings – 412 p.a., 15% lower than average annual house completion rate for 2000-2010. It would result in a 15.7% growth in the housing stock.

3,675 fewer people in employment (-6.0%)

• would need to be part of a sub-regional strategy aiming to direct most housing demand elsewhere

• if not part of such a strategy, then there is a high risk of the option being found unsound at Examination in Public

• falls well short of meeting housing need and demand

• does least to support the local economy, leading to a significant reduction in the local labour supply/workforce

• would hinder the achievement of a more balanced population structure with a reduction in the number of persons under 60 and an increase in the number of people over 60

• most positive benefits as regards the environment, with least use of greenfield land and the least amount of new infrastructure

• most likely to preserve the character of the district

• overall it would have least environmental impact but would have higher economic and social costs

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3

3.3 The consultants commence this appraisal by defining what they consider

to be a realistic assessment of housing need and demand in the district, i.e. 10,000 to 13,000 additional dwellings over the period 2008 to 2028 (a range stretching from Option 1 to Option 2). This range is more realistic in their view than the CLG figure of 14,440 given recent and prospective economic conditions. They see this scale of development as deliverable, although more detailed work is needed on assessing infrastructure and the availability of suitable land to confirm that this is the case. This point is being addressed as a part of the work underway on preparing the third draft of the Core Strategy and in the update to the District’s Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment. The District’s Land Availability, as recorded at 1st April 2008, is indicated in Appendix 1, Paragraph 9.1.

3.4 GL Hearn appraised the three main options against a suite of objectives which reflect the objectives of the District Council’s Corporate Strategy, those of the Sustainable Communities Strategy and those used in the previous draft Core Strategy. These objectives comprise: • meet local housing need; • support economic growth; • improve access to services; • reduce carbon footprint; • achieve a more balanced population structure; • preserve the district’s character • protect natural resources, including through limiting greenfield development.

3.5 GL Hearn narrow the range of growth down to 11,000 to 13,000 dwellings, citing the need to avoid a decline in employment in the district when the District Council’s own priorities favour economic growth and vitality.

3.6 The consultants present an indicative assessment of the sustainability implications of the three main housing growth options, though they point out that a detailed Sustainability Appraisal (SA) will be required. The District Council has employed UE Associates to undertake this SA as work on the Core Strategy progresses. This SA will accompany the third draft of the Core Strategy when it is published for public consultation.

3.7 The results of the consultants’ high level sustainability appraisal are shown in Table 1 above and it highlights the differences between Options 2 and 3, the former representing an approach that favours meeting economic and social objectives but with greater environmental costs, while the latter is weak as regards social and economic objectives but is more favourable to the environment. Option 1 would represent something of a compromise between on the one hand the achievement of

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economic and social objectives, and on the other hand the need to safeguard the environment.

4. The Consultants’ Conclusions 4.1 GL Hearn accept that the identification of a particular housing provision

option depends on the weight to be given to environmental, economic and social considerations, and ultimately it is for the District Council to make that judgement. However, the consultants point to the weakness of Option 3 in that its credibility would depend on the adoption of an agreement by local authorities across sub-regional level of a development strategy that would seek to compensate for under-provision of housing in this district by over-provision in other areas. There has been no significant progress to date on this issue, although some work on a sub-regional growth strategy is being undertaken by the Local Enterprise Partnership and the Coventry, Solihull & Warwickshire Association of Planning Officers.

4.2 Instead of a lower growth option that lacks robustness, GL Hearn are suggesting that housing provision in the range of 11,000 to 12,000 dwellings in the period 2008-2028 would be a robust yet positive framework for development. They state that the evidence points to this level of growth being achievable, although it will require further testing in terms of the availability of land and strategic infrastructure.

5. Implications for the Core Strategy 5.1 Current national planning guidance in the form of PPS3 makes clear that

planning authorities are under an obligation to plan for the delivery of housing requirements that have been identified on the basis of reliable information. A similar position is set out in the draft National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF). It follows that the evidence compiled by GL Hearn will now provide the basis for establishing the level of housing provision to be planned for in the Core Strategy.

5.2 The level of housing growth that GL Hearn see as robust and positive (11,000-12,000 overall or 550-600 p.a.) is higher than that which was the basis for the February 2010 Consultation Core Strategy (CCS). This sought to cater for 7,500 dwellings (375 p.a.) over the period 2006 to 2026, in line with the RSS Panel’s recommended growth figure. This was a policy-led approach, reflecting a proposed regional strategy that included a displacement of demand in areas such as Stratford-on-Avon District to other parts of the region. However, the RSS Panel also proposed that an additional 2,500 to 3,000 dwellings in the district in the period 2021 to 2026 be subject to consideration. Taking these additional dwellings into account, then the growth range suggested by GL Hearn does not greatly exceed the growth figures that were emerging through the RSS Revision process.

5.3 If growth in the range 11,000-12,000 dwellings were to be accepted as the basis of progressing preparation of the third draft Core Strategy, then there will be a need to comprehensively examine how to deliver this higher level of development and derive an appropriate locational strategy which best meets corporate and sustainability objectives. This assessment would need to draw on a range of sources of technical information, including evidence commissioned by the District Council

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which post-dates publication of the Consultation Core Strategy (February 2010), as well as the results of public consultation and consultations with service and infrastructure providers. Not least of these sources would be the Sustainability Appraisal which will test the proposals against a range of social, economic and environmental factors.

5.4 Any challenge to the findings of the GL Hearn study needs also to be based on robust alternative evidence relating to housing need and demand which would point to flaws in the GL Hearn analysis. Given that the study is based on a robust methodology that has been employed successfully in other areas and has sought to address the requirements in current national planning guidance1 relating to the assessment of an appropriate level of housing, as well as taking into account local circumstances, then it is likely to be difficult for evidence to be substantiated that would provide very different growth scenarios.

5.5 The 11,000-12,000 range that GL Hearn favours falls between Option 1 and Option 2 so it is one that sways towards the achievement of social and economic objectives, with an acceptance that there would be environmental costs, particularly through the need for greenfield site release. However, the initial high level sustainability assessment of the options by the consultants does not clearly indicate that this range of development would give rise to unacceptable environmental costs. It is pitched lower than Option 2 which was flagged as having the greatest environmental impact. It will be for the draft Core Strategy to look for the most positive and least negative ways of coping with the higher growth requirement.

5.6 Option 3 suffers from the weakness of being dependent on the willingness of other authorities to agree higher development quotas based on the need to absorb displaced growth from Stratford-on-Avon District. To progress, this Option relies upon successful negotiations with neighbouring authorities, a process which does not have a guaranteed outcome and which poses a risk of further delay to the Core Strategy programme. It is unlikely that an independent inspector examining the Core Strategy would accept it as sound if there were no firm arrangements in place to ensure that the necessary growth would happen elsewhere. At the same time, GL Hearn point to other drawbacks of this approach, particularly its lack of support for economic recovery and its tendency to accentuate an imbalance in population structure. If the option was pursued without any certainty of cross-boundary implications having been fully resolved, then it might prove difficult for the District Council to prove that it had fulfilled the duty to co-operate with other bodies that is one of the provisions of the Localism Bill.

5.7 It follows from the apparent weakness of Option 3, that adoption of one of the Figure A projections (see table included in Appendix 1) which show lower levels of housing growth than Option 3 would be even more difficult to robustly defend. These low growth projections comprise the zero net migration scenario (PROJ 3), the zero population growth scenario (PROJ 5), the RSS Preferred Option (PROJ 9) and the RSS Panel recommendation (PROJ 10). On the other hand, the high labour growth scenarios (PROJ 7 and PROJ 8) suffer from lack of realism as to the

1 Paragraphs 32 & 33 of PPS3

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economic prospects of the district. The Employment Land Study underlines their over-optimism against the rather limited economic growth prospects of the district.

5.8 Members are advised that, regardless of which Option is selected by the District Council, it will need to be subject to detailed Sustainability Appraisal and public consultation in the third draft of the Core Strategy before being carried forward into the final version of the Core Strategy in 2012. The consultation findings will be brought back to Cabinet for Members’ consideration in advance of the production of that final version.

6 Implications for the Determination of Planning Applications 6.1 As well as having considerable implications for Core Strategy preparation,

the study findings have a strong bearing on five year housing land supply assessment, an issue which is very relevant to the determination of planning applications for housing. PPS3 requires local planning authorities to identify sufficient specific deliverable sites to deliver housing in the first five years from the adoption of the relevant Local Development Document. If such a supply of deliverable sites cannot be identified, then there is a presumption in favour of planning applications for housing, subject to the policies of PPS3. This approach is echoed in the draft NPPF.

6.2 The last five year land supply assessment in this district was pitched against the housing requirements of the adopted RSS as representing figures that had been established by due process and which formed part of the statutory development plan for the district. However, new housing requirement figures had been emerging through the RSS Review (PROJ 9 & PROJ 10 in Figure A, Appendix 1) which were showing higher annual growth figures for Stratford-on-Avon District than those in the adopted RSS. Where the RSS is subject to review, current national planning guidance2 states that local planning authorities should have regard to the level of housing provision as proposed in the emerging RSS. A land supply assessment relying on adopted RSS figures rather than superseding figures emerging through the RSS review process is not one that is likely to prove robust, and this proved to be the case in the Kipling Road appeal decision in May this year. Here the appeal Inspector placed more weight on land supply assessment based on more recent data regarding housing provision than the five year land supply assessment tabled by the District Council based on the adopted RSS. Such an assessment will become entirely untenable once the RSS is abolished. Indeed, the obsolescence of development plan policies is a material consideration in the determination of planning applications. If policies in the development plan have become outdated or are no longer relevant because of changes in circumstances, than a decision may be made that does not accord with the development plan.

6.3 The circumstances described above are strong pointers to the need for a revised housing land assessment that takes into account new data. The findings of the GL Hearn study form the latest robust information on housing provision. A housing land supply assessment that uses figures

2 PPS3, Paragraph 53

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on housing provision from this study will have more credibility than one that relies on data that were compiled many years ago.

6.4 As well as a housing provision requirement, the other main element of a five year land supply assessment is the appraisal of available land supply sources to see whether they in total meet the requirement for the five year period. Such an appraisal has been undertaken and the overall results of this work is shown is shown below in Table 2. As recommended by GL Hearn, the assessment has not sought to apply a policy-based phasing of housing provision. It uses an annual rate of provision derived from averaging total provision across the whole of the plan period. The table includes two of the other scenarios for the sake of comparison (PROJ 3 & PROJ 10).

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Table 2: Five Year Housing Land Supply at 31 March 2011 (Net Figures) Housing Provision Options Study - Comparison of Options

Assessment Period: 2012 to 2017

Option 1 (PROJ 1) Main Trend-Based

Option 2 (PROJ 6) Trend-Based Economic

Option 3 (PROJ 2) Lower Net In-Migration

Base of GL Hearn Suggested Range

Top of GL Hearn Suggested Range

PROJ 3 Zero Net Migration

PROJ 10 RSS Panel Recommend-ation

Notes

1. No. of dwellings proposed to be built 2008-2028 10350 12960 8230 11000 12000 1880 7500

The figures do not include an allowance for dwellings lost through redevelopment. Monitoring against these requirements has to be on a net basis.

2. Completions 2008-2011 545 545 545 545 545 545 545 Dwellings that have been built since the base date of the plan.

3. Estimated completions 2011-2012 136 136 136 136 136 136 136 Completions expected in current

financial year.

4. Balance to be built 2012-2028 9669 12279 7549 10319 11319 1199 6819 Remainder to be built over rest of plan

period: 16 years from 2012 to 2028.

5. Required annual rate 604 767 472 645 707 75 426

Average rate needed over the remaining 16 years of the plan period. Higher than specified in the GL Hearn report because first four years have not met required average. No phasing applied.

6. Five year requirement 2012-2017 3022 3837 2359 3225 3537 375 2131

Required amount of housing that would be need in the five year assessment period.

7. Existing land supply for period 2012-2017 1549 1549 1549 1549 1549 1549 1549 Components of land supply shown

below.

8. Balance against five year requirement -1473 -2288 -810 -1676 -1988 +1174 -1582

9. Length of land supply (years) 2.6 2.0 3.3 2.4 2.2 20.7 3.6 How long the current land supply would

last against the required building rates.

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9

Table 2 (continued)

Components of Land Supply for 2012-2017 period

No. of Dwellings Notes

10. Dwellings being built at 31.3.11 111 Those expected to be completed 2012-17.

11. Dwellings permitted but not started at 31.3.11 1215 Ditto. Includes part of Long Marston Leisure Village, Maudslay Park & Kipling Road.

12. SHLAA sites not already subject to planning permission.

153 Based on SHLAA 2009 Update. Those sites considered likely to come forward for development in the five year period 2012-2017. 15% discount applied for non-take up/lower densities.

13. Rural housing sites 70 Sites where delivery likely within the five years 2012-2017.

Totals 1549 Page 3

0

6.5 Table 2 shows that the current housing land supply would be insufficient

to support five years building at any of the rates put forward as main options in the GL Hearn study. In other words, the District Council would not be able to demonstrate that it had a five year land supply in accordance with the requirements of PPS3. As a result, paragraph 71 of PPS3 would apply which would mean a presumption in favour of planning applications would apply, subject to the policies of the PPS. Of the scenarios included in the table, only the zero net-migration scenario (PROJ 3) shows sufficient land supply. In fact the total housing provision would have to fall to 5,600 for the land supply to be in surplus, and this would be well below what is needed to meet the extent of need and demand identified in the study.

6.6 Clearly the land supply position described in Table 2 will need to be taken into account in the determination of planning applications. The District Council will not be able to state with any credibility that it has a five year land supply when six out of the seven options compared show a shortfall. The remaining option (Zero-net migration) fails the sustainability tests referred to above as it does not meet the social and economic needs of the District. Reasons for refusal based on over-provision of housing will not be sustainable in the context of under-provision against newly researched housing provision figures. The onus will be on the District Council to assess proposals on the basis of other issues, including the saved local plan policies and the policies of PPS3.

7. Options available to The Cabinet 7.1 There are two aspects which should be addressed by Cabinet:

• the status to be attached to the study as a whole; • the housing provision option within the report that Cabinet considers

to be appropriate for further preparation of the LDF Core Strategy and for housing land supply assessment.

7.2 Option 1: • to adopt the Housing Provision Options Study as evidence to inform

the preparation of the Core Strategy and housing land supply assessment;

• to instruct the Head of Corporate Support to progress preparation of the draft Core Strategy and housing land supply assessment on the basis of the study’s Option 1, i.e. 10,350 dwellings to be provided in the district in the period 2008 – 2028.



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• to instruct the Head of Corporate Support to progress preparation of the draft Core Strategy and housing supply assessment on the basis of the study’s Option 2, i.e. 12,960 dwellings to be provided in the district in the period 2008 – 2028.



• to instruct the Head of Corporate Support to progress preparation of the draft Core Strategy and housing supply assessment on the basis of the study’s Option 3, i.e. 8,230 dwellings to be provided in the district in the period 2008 – 2028.



• to instruct the Head of Corporate Support to progress preparation of the draft Core Strategy and housing supply assessment on the basis of the study’s conclusion that 11,000 to 12,000 dwellings should be provided in the district in the period 2008 – 2028.



• to instruct the Head of Corporate Support to progress preparation of the draft Core Strategy and housing supply assessment on the basis of one of the other growth scenarios detailed in the study.



• to instruct the Head of Corporate Support to progress preparation of the draft Core Strategy and undertake public consultation upon Housing Options 1, 2 and 3 as a part of the scheduled public consultation on the third draft.

7.8 Option 7: • to discount the study as evidence; • to base the housing land supply assessment on previous housing

provision figures.

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Assessment of the Listed Options 7.9 Option 1 would meet local housing needs based on past trends but

would not support growth in the workforce/labour supply in the district which would see a slight decline. It could not therefore be seen to support economic growth. It would also see a decline in the number of people under 15 which could impact on the viability of schools, thereby not assisting the achievement of a more balanced population structure in a district that already has a relatively high number of people in the more senior age groups. The option would see marginally higher rates of development relative to those in the recent past and there is the likelihood of more greenfield land being needed to deliver the option.

7.10 Of the three main options, Option 2 would mean the highest level of housing development and would do most to support economic prosperity by giving rise to an increase in the local workforce and in the population as a whole. It would provide for housing development well in excess of recent rates of housing completions and would make the greatest contribution to meeting housing needs. It would help achieve a more balanced population structure with modest growth in the working-age population and the school-age population. However, this option would see the greatest potential impact on the environment with the use of greenfield land greater than in the other main options, and is likely to have the greatest impact on the character of the district.

7.11 Option 3 is one which would only be feasible if backed up by agreed arrangements between planning authorities to distribute housing growth requirements to direct demand from the more rural districts such as Stratford-on-Avon to other parts of the sub-region. Such a distribution was part of the adopted RSS and would probably have been continued in the RSS Revision. However, there is no certainty that such a strategy would be feasible in a post-RSS situation in which planning authorities may choose to pursue a different approach to growth for their own area. The consultants consider that adopting an option that would depend on the co-operation of other authorities would be risky and unlikely to be found sound by an independent inspector.

7.12 Option 4 is the one which would be afforded most support by the findings of study. However, the necessary work on a range of different factors, including infrastructure, will demonstrate whether the option is feasible and sustainable. If this further work shows that feasibility and sustainability are lacking, then there would a case to pursue an alternative growth option.

7.13 As regards Option 5, the higher growth scenarios have been considered by the consultants as less realistic from the economic perspective and more damaging as regards impact on the environment and character of the district. The lower scenarios are seen as unable to meet the housing needs and demands of the district, although they would have less environmental impact. In short, the evidence fails to provide a convincing case for adoption of one of the other growth scenarios including PROJ 9 (RSS Preferred Option – 5600 dwellings) and PROJ 10 (RSS Panel Recommendation – 7500 dwellings).

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7.14 Option 6 is a way of testing public opinion on the Housing Options and the accompanying Sustainability Appraisal in advance of making a Cabinet decision on the housing figure. However, Option 6 has the potential to significantly delay the production of the Core Strategy as it is likely to result in the need for a further round of consultation in 2012 once a figure has been finally selected. This is because the locational strategy for the Core Strategy (as described in paragraph 5.3) can only be properly drafted once a figure has been arrived at. This Option also has significant implications for making decisions on planning applications as, during the interim period, the Council will remain without a housing figure to measure its five year housing land supply, leaving the Council vulnerable to ‘planning by appeal’.

7.15 It is difficult to see how Option 7 would be feasible in that previous data is losing credibility because it does not reflect latest trends and circumstances, a problem highlighted in the Kipling Road appeal decision. GL Hearn have compiled data from an independent perspective using a robust methodology and an Inspector assessing the soundness of the Core Strategy will not be able to disregard their data. For alternative data to weigh more heavily with an Inspector, then that data will need to be based on more reliable assumptions, more up-to-date sources and compiled in accordance with best practice.

8 Members’ Comments 8.1 Councillor Gill Roache, Portfolio Holder, Corporate Support:- I welcome the production of independent evidence to advise us in our

production of the new Core Strategy, which will underpin development in the District up to 2028.

9. Implications of the Proposal Legal/Human Rights Implications 9.1 None. Financial 9.2 The GL Hearn report includes a section on potential New Homes Bonus

receipts (see pages 93 & 94). This scheme has the effect of providing additional income for local authorities depending on the extent of house building in their areas. However, at this time there is debate at a national level whether financial considerations should be taken into account when determining planning policy or applications. Members are advised to discount the consideration of any of the New Homes Bonus figures that are included in the GL Hearn report when considering the options set out above.

9.3 The cost of the Study has been covered by the approved Local Development Framework budget.

Environmental 9.4 The level at which housing growth is set in this district will have

considerable environmental implications, and GL Hearn have provided an assessment of such implications at a high level. In summary the consultants state that the higher level growth options will have more environmental implications than lower growth options. However, the detail of these implications will be examined as further work on the Core

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Strategy progresses, particularly through the Sustainability Appraisal. Indeed, this work will show whether a feasible strategy for growth can be identified, one that can be delivered without undermining environmental objectives. If not, then the levels of growth to be sought in the Core Strategy may need to be re-considered.

Corporate Strategy

9.5 The consultants have taken into account the key aims of the District Council’s Corporate Strategy in their assessment of housing provision options, as follows:

• Addressing local housing need; • A district where business and enterprise can flourish; • Improving access to services; • Minimising the impacts of climate change.

Equality Impact Assessment 9.6 There are no immediate Equality Impact Assessment implications

relevant to consideration of the study findings. However, the policies of the third draft of the Core Strategy will be subject to a full Equality Impact Assessment.

10. Risk Assessment 10.1 Preparation of the Core Strategy is contingent upon endorsement of the

evidence base and a determination of the preferred housing Option. Without this, preparation of the Core Strategy will be delayed and the land supply situation will continue to be unclear. This will prolong the period during which planning by appeal will predominate and during which the District Council will not be in a strong position to determine the extent and location of housing development in the district.

10.2 The Council must base its policy decisions in relation to the Core Strategy on a robust evidence base. If the Council does not wish to endorse the GL Hearn study it must commission an alternative study and there would be cost implications and delays in the preparation of the Core Strategy that would result from this. It is not advisable to make policy decisions that are not supported by evidence from a reputable source as this will result in a significant risk that the Core Strategy would then be found to be unsound at Examination in Public. This would have considerable implications for the District Council in terms of delaying the establishment of an up-to-date development plan and framework for planning decisions. Prolonging the Core Strategy process would have resource implications and would add to the Council’s expenditure in this area of responsibility.

11. Conclusion 11.1 GL Hearn have developed and assessed a range of potential housing

growth options for Stratford-on-Avon District to help progress preparation of the third draft of the Core Strategy and to inform housing land supply assessment. They conclude that there is a strong case for between 11,000 and 12,000 dwellings to be built in the district in the period 2008 and 2028. This level of housing growth is given additional

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support by the findings of the Employment Land Study, also compiled by GL Hearn.

11.2 The implications of each of the options have been described and Cabinet needs to provide Officers with its view of a housing growth option that should be taken forward in further work on the Core Strategy and for the housing land supply assessment.

LIAM NEVIN

HEAD OF CORPORATE SUPPORT Background papers: Stratford-on-Avon District Housing Provision Options Study Final Report June 2011 – GL Hearn PPS3 – Planning Policy Statement 3 – Housing, CLG, June 2011 Draft National Planning Policy Framework, CLG, July 2011

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Appendix 1 As stated in paragraph 3.1 of the covering report, the consultants’ main

findings can be detailed as follows: 1. Recent Trends 1.1 The report commences by examining recent trends in population in the

district. Population growth over the last twenty years has arisen through net in-migration. The age structure of the district is weighted towards the older age groups. Consequently the death rate has outweighed the birth rate and without net in-migration population would have declined. Most of the in-migration has been of a relatively short distance within the UK.

1.2 House prices in the district are high relative to other areas and although the recent recession gave rise to a decline in prices, there was something of a recovery in 2010 accompanied by modest recovery in house sales. At the same time the report points to a continued lack of housing affordability. Significantly the report states that it is the underlying growth in households that drives housing need and demand, even in circumstances where housing is difficult to purchase and which sees demand shifting to rented tenures.

2. Compiling Projections 2.1 While past trends are important, the main task of the report is to look

forward over the period to be covered by the Core Strategy, i.e. 2008 to 2028. To this end the consultants have compiled projections of housing need and demand which are closely related to population trends and future economic performance. The projections take account of the recent economic recession and weak economic prospects in the short-term. While a range of projections were generated, three main potential development options were identified, reflecting different economic growth scenarios. Each of these projections was expressed in terms of population growth, housing numbers and employment growth.

2.2 All of the projections are set out in Figure A on page 5 of the report’s Executive Summary. For ease of reference the table is shown at the end of this sub-section.

2.3 Key points evident from these projections are: • both the Preferred Option and Panel recommended housing growth

scenarios for the RSS would see a reduction in the district’s resident working population and quite modest population growth;

• the three main projections put forward by the study are all higher in terms of required house building rates than the RSS Preferred Option and Panel figures;

• planning for zero net-migration (PROJ 3: 94 dwellings per annum) would see a substantial decline in resident population and the number of residents in employment (i.e. labour supply), resulting in a weakening of the district’s economy;

Item 4

Appendix 1

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• a minimum of 245 dwellings per annum would be needed to maintain the district’s current resident population but this scenario would also see a significant reduction in the number of residents in employment;

• a minimum of 555 dwellings per annum are needed to maintain the size of the district’s resident working population but this would also mean a significant growth in population to offset the effect of trend towards an older population.

Figure A: Summary of Projections 2008 to 2028 – total

Population Growth Housing Numbers Employment Growth Projection

Total % change

Total Per Annum

% change

Total % change

MAIN PROJECTIONS PROJ 1: Main Trend-Based (Option 1) 12,400 10.4% 10,350 517 19.7% -960 -1.6% PROJ 2: Lower Net In-Migration (Option 3) 7,560 6.4% 8,230 412 15.7% -3,675 -6.0% PROJ 6: Trend-based Economic (Option 2) 18,300 15.4% 12,960 648 24.6% 2,490 4.1% COMPONENT ANALYSIS PROJECTIONS PROJ 3: Zero Net Migration -6,970 -5.9% 1,880 94 3.6% -11,820 -19.5% PROJ 4: Zero Employment Growth 14,100 11.9% 11,100 555 21.1% 0 0.0% PROJ 5: Zero Population Growth 0 0.0% 4,930 246 9.4% -7,910 -13.0% PROJ 7: 5% Growth in Labour 19,520 16.4% 13,460 673 25.6% 3,040 5.0% PROJ 8: 10% Growth in Labour 24,940 21.0% 15,830 791 30.1% 6,075 10.0% PROJ 9: House building of 280 pa (RSS Phase 2 Preferred Option) 1,530 1.3% 5,600 280 10.6% -7,050 -11.6%

PROJ 10: House building of 375 pa (RSS Phase 2 Panel Recommendation) 5,880 5.0% 7,500 375 14.6% -4,610 -7.6%

2.4 The three main growth scenarios (Options 1, 2 and 3) shown above are

assessed in some detail by GL Hearn and that analysis is described later in Appendix 1.

3. Other Projections (Component Analysis Projections) 3.1 The projections assessed in addition to the three main options, PROJ 3,

PROJ 4, PROJ 5, PROJ 7, PROJ 8, PROJ 9 and PROJ 10 were developed to understand the impact of various component drivers on housing need and demand. They help to put the three main options in context and to compare them with other possibilities. For example, they show that an option based on zero net migration (PROJ 3) could result in overall population decline and a significant reduction in the district’s labour force. One aimed at zero population growth (PROJ 5) would also result in a marked reduction in the labour force. On the other hand, to achieve increases in the labour force of at least 5% (PROJ 7 & PROJ 8) would mean annual housing completion rates needing to average over 670 dwellings per annum.

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3.2 The report includes reference to two growth scenarios that were proposed during the Regional Spatial Strategy Phase Two Revision (PROJ 9 & PROJ 10). Compared with the three main options presented in the study, these RSS related growth scenarios suggest quite modest levels of growth, but they were proposed in the context of regional planning strategies that sought to direct growth pressures to other areas. Indeed, GL Hearn refer to the dependency of their Option 3 on a similar strategy being in place at the sub-regional level at least. The study indicates that both of these options would fall well short of meeting assessed housing need and demand and would also see significant reductions in the working population within the district. As with Option 3, they are also likely to hinder the achievement of a more balanced population structure.

4. Housing and the Economy 4.1 The report places emphasis on the relationship between the housing

market and the economy and states that it operates at a number of levels. Housing provision influences the labour market, as influencing the available supply of labour and skill levels. Housing supply constraints can potentially result in shortages of labour (overall and in certain sectors), contributing to recruitment difficulties and to wage inflation, and can also lead to longer-distance commuting. Thus the negative employment figures shown against some of the options in Figure A are an important issue and need to be fully taken into account in determining the choice of a housing provision option. At the same the report also notes that housing provision can contribute to economic growth, supporting jobs directly in the construction sector and local supply chains (in the short-term), and through supporting or increasing demand for local consumer-related service sectors, such the provision of household equipment and furnishings.

5. Demographics 5.1 One of the key elements of the study is the development of population

projections for the district covering the period 2008 to 2028. The consultants employ a recognised methodology to derive these projections that take into account fertility rates, death rates and migration. As with all such projections, assumptions have to be made about the different factors and there can be uncertainty in predicting future trends. Nationally recognised figures compiled by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) have been used where necessary, which adds to the robustness of the study, although these have been critically examined as part of the study. GL Hearn have examined whether such nationally derived data are appropriate to the circumstances of this district and in some cases have varied from the standard ONS approach to reflect local circumstances more accurately.

5.2 For example, a more tailor-made approach has been used in modelling the migration component of the population projections. GL Hearn have based their main projection figures (Option 1) on the levels of net migration over a ten year period, rather than the five year period that ONS use in their population projections. The ten year figure is 15% lower that the five year figure. The consultants consider that the latter is atypical from the longer term trend and is not sufficiently reliable for projections in the context of this district.

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5.3 The report examines in some detail the likely effects of current trends on the population structure of the district. It highlights the strength of the trend towards an older population. Option 1 would in fact see over 50,000 people over the age of 60 in the district by 2028, a 50% increase over the 2008 number (33,371), while the proportion aged 75 or over would increase by an even greater proportion, 101%. Meanwhile there would be decline in the number of persons in younger age groups, apart from the 15 to 29 year olds. Of course, such trends would have considerable implications for service provision, particularly the ability to maintain existing levels of provision, while they would also give rise to a reduction in the number of residents in employment which would not help in maintaining the vitality of the local economy.

6. Planning for Economic Growth 6.1 In developing the economically driven scenarios, including Option 2, GL

Hearn have identified levels of housing provision that would support growth in the labour force necessary to underpin varying rates of employment growth over the 20 year period from 2008 to 2028. The consultants have taken into account factors such as the high employment rates in the district, proposed changes to the pensionable age for both men and women, together with forecasts of economic performance.

6.2 Even if the aim was merely to maintain the size of the current workforce in the district, there would need to be an increase in the population, taking into account the ageing of the existing population (PROJ 4 in Figure A). For this to happen, the district would need an average of over 550 new dwellings being provided each year. It follows that population stability would mean a decline in the size of the local workforce, as illustrated in PROJ 5. The latter would also result in a higher proportion of people of retirement age compared with Option 1.

6.3 GL Hearn are clear that economic performance is a key driver of trends, including levels of in-migration. However, there is much uncertainty surrounding future economic performance and this is reflected in the need for the Government to change national economic forecasts quite regularly. The study has referred to regional level employment growth forecasts to initially project labour demand. Because of the uncertainties, the study provides three economically driven projections, the most conservative of which forms the basis of Option 2. This option provides for growth in the labour force of 4.1% 2008 to 2028. The other scenarios (PROJ 7 and PROJ 8 in Fig. A) show labour force growth of 5% an 10% respectively.

6.4 The Employment Land Study (ELS) which is subject to a separate report to Cabinet provides a more detailed assessment of economic prospects within the district. Most of the forecasts presented by the ELS and expressed in terms of demand for labour see relatively limited economic growth prospects for the district with the probability of the years up to the end of the next decade seeing a decline in employment. The evidence suggests that the higher labour supply growth scenarios presented in the Housing Provision Options Study (PROJ 7 & PROJ 8) would not be supported by sufficient growth in local labour demand, even if a strongly positive approach were to be taken towards the local economy. Consequently, if either of the two higher labour supply scenarios were to be pursued they would probably fuel increased levels of

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out-commuting which would not aid the achievement of sustainability objectives. For this reason GL Hearn do not consider these scenarios to be viable.

6.5 The ELS indicates that Option 2 of the Housing Provision Options Study is consistent with a relatively optimistic, but still reasonable “Convergence Scenario” which would see growth in labour demand. The option is seen as supporting economic growth and it would broadly align with the emerging strategy of the Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) and with the draft National Planning Framework.

6.6 The ELS points to the decrease in the local workforce that would arise through Options 1 and 3 as potentially constraining employment growth where job opportunities cannot be filled. They could also contribute to wage inflation as companies compete for employees. At the same time a decrease in the local workforce could equally result in a reduction of out-commuting or an increase in in-commuting from/to the district. Taking into account the likely economic disadvantages of the lower housing growth scenarios, GL Hearn favour the overall range of 11,000 to 12,000 dwellings which would at the least sustain the district’s current resident workforce, while at the higher end contribute to a relatively modest but economically positive growth in labour supply.

7. Household (and Housing) Growth Projections 7.1 Projections based on demographic and economic trends have to be

translated into household and housing growth levels to be of greater use to the preparation of a strategic planning document such as the Core Strategy. GL Hearn do this by means of a standard methodology which takes account of factors such as “headship rates” (the number of people counted as heads of household) and dwelling vacancy rates.

7.2 Figure A shows the numbers of additional dwellings that would be needed for each growth scenario. In summary the three main options would housing growth between 8,200 and 13,000 dwellings over the 2008 to 2028. The other scenarios show considerable variation in housing growth, from 1,880 to 15,830.

7.3 The Government’s own 2008-2028 household growth projection for the district is included as a comparative in the report. This is 14,440, equivalent to a need for 720 new dwellings per annum. This is based on short-term migration trends and when compared with the housing growth scenarios compiled by GL Hearn, the CLG projection falls at the higher end of the growth spectrum, exceeding all of the three main options tabled by the study and outside the range of growth seen by the study as providing a robust and positive framework for development in the district, i.e. 11,000 to 12,000 dwellings in the 20 year period.

8. The Need for Different Types of Housing 8.1 As specified in the study brief, the consultants have looked at how the

demographic trends impact on the demand for different types and sizes of housing, although it does not go as far as the level of detail that would be possible in a comprehensive Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) such as that undertaken in the district in 2005/6.

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8.2 The study’s analysis is based on projecting forward the way in which people currently occupy housing. This is closely related to what people can afford and how old they are, rather than the number of people in the household. The model accepts that there is a degree of under-occupation relative to the size of dwelling, particularly by those in the older age groups. As regards tenure, the study assumes that 30% of new dwellings will fall in the affordable sector, representing the maximum that is likely to be achieved during the period 2008-2028, although this would be well above the percentage delivered in the two years 2008-2010 (18.5%).

8.3 The needs specified in the report relate to Option 1, the main trend-based growth scenario. Of the market units, around half of these should be three bedroomed homes, while most of the dwellings should be in the form of houses or bungalows rather than flats. In other words the data is suggesting that a slight shift towards smaller dwellings is needed in the district’s overall housing stock. This would match the trend towards an older population.

8.4 As regards the affordable housing sector, the trends are suggesting a strong need for one, two and three bedroomed dwellings including a significant number of flats, contrasting with the market sector where the need for flats is very small. However, the consultants qualify the outcome of this analysis of the affordable sector by pointing to one bedroom dwellings’ lack of flexibility to accommodate households’ changing requirements. They also state that the provision of larger family homes can often support improvements in the management of existing stock through the release of other properties.

8.5 The report has not thrown light on the extent of need for specialized accommodation such as extra care housing. However, recent research undertaken by Warwickshire County Council has provided data on this topic1.

9. Land Availability and Infrastructure 9.1 To assist in gauging the potential impact of development options on the

district in terms of land availability and infrastructure, the consultants draw on the results of the 2009 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA) which provided an assessment of the potential land for residential development in the district. The SHLAA indicated a relatively limited resource of land on sites already subject to planning permission or allocated in the adopted Local Plan Review, or which would be acceptable against existing policies or which might come through windfall sites (providing for about 2,600 dwellings). Of course a complete review of policy is underway as part of the Core Strategy process and the constraints on development that existing policies apply may not be relevant to the assessment of development options at this time. The SHLAA does in fact indicate that there is a much greater resource of land around the main settlements of the district which could be considered suitable for development and which would provide capacity for about 18,500 dwellings.

1 For example, the report on the Care and Choice Programme presented to WCC Cabinet on 27.1.11

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Dwelling capacity identified in SHLAA (at 1st April 2008)

Sites with planning permission (April

2008) 919

Policy compliant large sites 296 COM1 sites 130 Windfall allowance (to 2028) 1260 Sub-total 2605 Sites within Broad locations 6065 Sub-total 8670 Policy constrained sites 9788 Total 18,458

It can be seen there is a capacity for around 8,700 dwellings if the policy constrained sites are excluded, and around 18,500 if these are included.

9.2 The consultants refer to the issue of infrastructure and underline the importance of physical infrastructure provision to surmount constraints on development. However, they were not tasked with examining these matters in detail and have only referred to statements made in the draft Core Strategy (February 2010). This issue is being addressed more fully by the Planning Policy Team who are formulating the Core Strategy. Liaison with infrastructure providers continues as part of the work on the third draft of the Core Strategy.

10. Further Information 10.1 Further information can be obtained from:

Stratford-on-Avon District Housing Provision Options Study Final Report June 2011 – GL Hearn PPS3 – Planning Policy Statement 3 – Housing, CLG, June 2011 Draft National Planning Policy Framework, CLG, July 2011

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