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Effect of Climate Change on Africa and Its People: Multiple Stress Factors
Dr Engobo EmesehDepartment of Law and Criminology
Aberystwyth University
United Kingdom
4th April 2014Africa-Wales Climate Change
Conference, Machynlleth
4th April 2014Africa-Wales Climate Change
Conference, Machynlleth
Climate Change and Africa “Africa is one of the most vulnerable
continents to climate change and climate variability, a situation aggravated by the interaction of ‘multiple stresses’, occurring at various levels, and low adaptive capacity”
IPCC 2007, 4th Assessment Report, Chapter 9
A vulnerable Continent
“All its regions - from the flood prone coastal regions, to the more drought susceptible semi-arid and arid Sahel and Saharan regions- are fragile and sensitive to the impacts of climate change.”
4th April 2014Africa-Wales Climate Change
Conference, Machynlleth
Africa and Climate Vulnerability- Factsheet ™ By 2020, between 75 and 250 million people projected to be
exposed to increased water stress. ™Yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50%
with implications for food security and malnutrition Towards the end of the 21st century, projected sea level rise will
affect low-lying coastal areas with large populations. By 2080, an increase of 5 to 8% of arid and semi-arid land in Africa
is projected under a range of climate scenarios . ™ The cost of adaptation could amount to at least 5 to 10% of
Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Report. Summary for Policy Makers, IPCC, 2007
4th April 2014Africa-Wales Climate Change
Conference, Machynlleth
4th April 2014Africa-Wales Climate Change
Conference, Machynlleth
Physical Factors Economic Factors
Poverty Dependence on primary sectors
e.g- agriculture is the economic foundation of many countries, employing about 60% of the population (especially those in the rural areas) and accounting for about 30% of GDP
Capacity Deficits and Institutional/Governance Challenges
Multiple Stresses- Internal
Stressors- External
Global Pressures Climate Change mitigation/Energy Security
Bio- fuels Global Food Security
“Land grabs”
4th April 2014Africa-Wales Climate Change
Conference, Machynlleth
4th April 2014Africa-Wales Climate Change
Conference, Machynlleth
Case Study- 2012 Floods in Nigeria Nigeria
In West Africa Population- 150 million Climatic Zones- varied
4th April 2014Africa-Wales Climate Change
Conference, Machynlleth
Worst in decades From early July 2012 – late November 2012 Flooding in most states in the country 7.7 Million affected, over 2.1 million
displaced, 5,800 injured, and 363 people killed.
Facts
2012 Flood – Most Affected States
4th April 2014Africa-Wales Climate Change
Conference, Machynlleth
4th April 2014
Trofani
Agbere
Elemebiri
Africa-Wales Climate Change Conference, Machynlleth
4th April 2014Africa-Wales Climate Change
Conference, Machynlleth
Floods in Bayelsa State-
7 out of the 8 LGAs affected 355 Communities affected
All areas along major river banks were submerged. 42,683 houses affected 800,000 persons were directly or indirectly
affected 4,005 fish farms destroyed
4th April 2014Africa-Wales Climate Change
Conference, Machynlleth
35 deaths Illnesses due to contaminated sources of drinking Widespread displacement
E.g. the Federal University was forced to evacuate their campus and shut for 2 months
Impacts
4th April 2014Africa-Wales Climate Change
Conference, Machynlleth
Over 85% of agricultural land Food crops completely destroyed 4,005 fish farms destroyed Equipment (fishing, farming) destroyed or lost
Infrastructure Roads, Bridges, Schools…
Public, Business and Residential Properties
Impacts (2)
Aerial View of Trofani Community
09/04/23
A completely submerged house in Igbogene
4th April 2014Africa-Wales Climate Change
Conference, Machynlleth
Flood Defence ??
09/04/23
Sagbama LG Council Secretariat Complex
09/04/23
Rescuing some personal properties in Biseni
09/04/23
A Relief Camp for Displaced Persons
09/04/23
Displaced mother and her children
09/04/23
Another victim in Azikoro Village
09/04/23
Yet another in Azikoro, Yenagoa
09/04/23
Aerial view of a flooded plantation in Elebele
4th April 2014Africa-Wales Climate Change
Conference, Machynlleth
On-The-Spot Assessment by NEMA Officials
09/04/23
Collapsed Imiringi Bridge
09/04/23
A damaged section of Trofani Road
09/04/23
4th April 2014Africa-Wales Climate Change
Conference, Machynlleth
Natural Factors Physical, Climate change?...,
Socio/Economic Factors Land Use Patterns, Environmental Degradation, Poverty,
Livelihoods, housing…External
Upper Riparian States water releases from the Lagdo Reservoir in Cameroun,
Contributory Factors
4th April 2014Africa-Wales Climate Change
Conference, Machynlleth
Responses
Disaster Management and Adaptation Relevant Factors
Costs Capacity Local Knowledge
Institutional Factors
Multiple Institutions/Agencies Input from various ministries/departments
Environment, Agriculture, Planning, Forestry, Transport, Health, Housing, Water, etc.
Monitoring/enforcement Clear lead role?
conflicts/overlaps Coherent Policy/Strategy?
4th April 2014Africa-Wales Climate Change
Conference, Machynlleth
4th April 2014Africa-Wales Climate Change
Conference, Machynlleth
THANK YOU