Emerging retrofit policy in Wales

Christopher Jofeh, chair, Welsh Government advisory group on the decarbonisation of existing

homes

11 June 2019

Ateb Housing Association

Building Research Establishment

Cadwyn Housing Association

Cardiff Council

Catrin Maby, Independent Consultant

Community Housing Cymru

Constructing Excellence Wales

Design Commission for Wales

Development Bank of Wales

Energy Savings Trust

Federation of Master Builders

Fusion21

Grwp Cynefin

Institute of Welsh Affairs

Melin Homes

Mid Wales Housing Association

National Energy Action

National Landlords Association

Office of the Future Generations Commissioner

Residential Landlords Association

Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors

Royal Society of Architects Wales

Royal Town Planning Institute

Sero Homes

SPECIFIC at Swansea University

Sustainable and Traditional Buildings Alliance

Taff Housing Association

UK Finance

Valleys to Coast Housing Association

Wales and West Utilities

Welsh Local Government Association

Welsh School of Architecture

Consider the current and long-term evidence needed to develop and deliver a programme

Assess any gaps in the evidence base and how they could be filled

Recommend appropriate types of action and support that might be taken by all key stakeholders,

and not just Government, to deliver a programme in the short, medium and long terms

Analyse the costs, value, levers, incentives/disincentives, challenges and opportunities represented

by individual and collective sets of action

Recommend appropriate types of support and interventions needed to achieve the aims of the

programme

Consider how actions might be implemented e.g. by tenure, area, income or construction type or

a combination of all these approaches

Engage with other relevant organisations that are able to provide advice, support and input on

these issues

Ensure all activities and recommendations made have clear links to the Welsh Government’s

Nation Strategy “Prosperity for All” and the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015

Consider any other issues requested by the Welsh Government.

Workstreams

Understanding Entry Points for Changing Behaviours to Decarbonise the Privately-

Owned Housing Stock in WalesDr. Paul Chadwick

Associate Professor and Deputy Director

UCL Centre for Behaviour Change

Dr. Jo HaleSenior Research Associate

Complex Urban Systems for Sustainability and Health (CUSSH)UCL Centre for Behaviour Change

Objective of the project

To create a virtuous chain of influence in which different elements in the housing system interact in mutually reinforcing ways to prompt private homeowners to behave in ways that reduce the energy consumed in their homes.

Technology-centric

approach

Government

IntermediariesConsumers

Meet Carbon Reduction Targets

Run profitably or within budget, in line with objectives

Install energy-efficient modifications, and use energy

efficiently

Objective of the project

To create a virtuous chain of influence in which different elements in the housing system interact in mutually reinforcing ways to prompt private homeowners to behave in ways that reduce the energy consumed in their homes.

Behaviour-focused

approach

Government

IntermediariesConsumers

Meet Carbon Reduction Targets

Run profitably or within budget, in line with objectives

Install energy-efficient modifications, and use energy

efficiently

Identifying what needs to change

Influence

Behaviour

Actor

Key:

Domestic

Fill up sanitiser dispenser

Availability of sanitiser

Lack of timeMultiple

staff off sick

No budget for agency

staff

Need to consider….1. Whose behaviour we need to change?2. What behaviours are important?3. What are the influences on that behaviour?4. How do they interact?

Forgetting to wash

Not knowing how to wash

Nurse

Wash hands with sanitiser

Behavioural Systems Maps: Actors, Behaviours and Influences

Actor

Behaviour

Influence

COM-B: Understanding Influences on

Behaviour

Psychological or physical ability

to enact the behaviour

Reflective and automatic mechanisms

that activate or inhibit behaviour

Physical and social environment

that enables the behaviour

Michie et al (2011) Implementation Science

Influence: Availability of attractive

loans to fund energy efficient home improvements

Influence:Financial Incentives for retail

banks to provide loans for energy efficient home improvements

Behaviour:Merchants to stock

products, spares and materials required to

install and maintain them

Behaviour:Recommend an energy

efficient home improvement

Behaviour:Make a decision to make a home improvement that is

energy efficient

Behaviour: Apply for a loan to fund an energy efficient improvement

Influence: Financial incentives to stock energy efficient

products

Behaviour: Applying for a loan to fund

an energy efficient improvement

Capability• Know that loans exist.• Be able to complete the application

process

Motivation • Awareness of benefits of loan and

that it will be ‘worth it’• Belief that the process is easy and

hassle-free• Makes people feel good!

Opportunity• Easy and accessible process.• Support for application.• Awareness of social desirability of

seeking funding

Designing interventions from behavioural systems maps

Behaviour Influence Behaviour Change Interventions

Social marketing campaign to promote awareness of loans for energy efficient home improvements and change social

norms around taking up such loansWelsh Government

Builders and Installers

Be able to communicate persuasively about the benefits of energy saving home improvements and funding mechanisms to support their use

Be able to support people if necessary with the application process

Design systems for applying for funding that are intuitive and easy to use

Retail banks and building societies

LocalAuthorities

Local HealthBoard

Localplanning unit

BuildingControllers

Professionaltrade bodies

Professionaldesign bodies

Installers (usuallylocal builders)

WelshGovernment

UKGovernment

Merchants

Retrofitdesigners

DevelopmentBank of Wales

Banks andbuilding societies

EU drivers

Technologysuppliers

Establish / reviseenforceable standards

Check appropriatenessand quality of installed

measure

Check plannedmeasures meet

standards

Instruct local planners toset a range of locallyacceptable measures

Set a range of locallyacceptable measures

Provide funding to LA to increasecapacity for enforcement andbudget to support local supply

chain

Inform owner/landlord of theneed to make a change to

their property within a deadline

Minimum EngeryEfficiency Standards

(MEES)

Identify measuresrequired for specific

property

Buildingpassport

Interpret buildingpassport

Submit retrofit plansfor planning permission

Measures includeworkable and buildable

details

Quality ofinstallation

Time-efficiency ofinstallation

Trust ininstaller

Carry outinstallation of

measures

Word ofmouth

Retrofit skills of localinstallation workforce

Commit to carrying outinstallation of measures

Assurance standardswill remain consistent

over time

Provide / finance trainingfor local installation

workforce

Availability of localstock required for

measures

Legislate to ensure Welshstandards are protected fromchanges by UK Government

Purchase stockcentrally to supply local

merchants

Central datawarehouse

Identify propertiesrequiring

decarbonisation

Trigger message to ownersthat home improvement is

needed / due

Provide a source oflow-cost finance

Strong economic case forproviding grants and loans

for home improvement

Restrictions fromOwner-Occupier on wheninstallation can be carried

out

UKCCCtargets

Design a joined-up andsustained approach to

decarbonisation

Feasibility of aligningWales/UK funding

streams

Embeddecarbonisation in all

areas of work

Strengthenregulations and

laws

Decide to improveEE of property

Owner-Occupier'sawareness of

decarbonisation

Owner-Occupier'smotivation to improve

EE of property

Social marketing campaignsto increase awareness of

decarbonisation

Potential bill savingsfrom EE improvements

Contract a localinstaller

Serve HHSRSimprovement notice to

landlord

Invest in relevantretrofit skills

Provide training,education and upskilling

to installers

Release mortgage, loanor grant easily toproperty owner

Range of EEproducts on the

market

Advice portal

Assess HHSRS healthstandard of properties in

local area

LA budget andcapacity

Approve plannedmeasures

Speed ofplanning approval

Pressure to househomeless people from own

and neighbouring areas

Carry out valueassessment of installing

EE improvements

Plans for other homeimprovement work

Affordability of EEimprovements

Explore EEimprovement options

and benefits

Media

Social norms

EE comparisonsites

Existing sources of EEadvice (e.g. Age

Concern)

Desire to invest invalue of property

Monitor home runningcosts (e.g. heating bill)

Learn to use EEimprovements properly

(e.g. control thermostat)

Reduction in homeenergy use and running

costsWord-of-mouth

Marketing offinancial products

Accessfinance

Deadlines for completingEE improvements /receiving incentives

Physical constraints ofproperty (e.g. space

available)

EE Consumeradvice service

Regulator ofconsumer advice

Consumer adviceregulations

Peer group

Family andfriends

Owner-Occupiers

Owner- occupiers

Blue = Actors

Green = Behaviours

Red = Influences on behaviour

Box = Potential service /

resource

Landlords

Tenants

LocalAuthorities

Local HealthBoard

Localplanning unit

BuildingControllers

Professionaltrade bodies

Professionaldesign bodies

Installers (usuallylocal builders)

WelshGovernment

UKGovernment

Merchants

Retrofitdesigners

DevelopmentBank of Wales

Banks andbuilding societies

Landlordassociations

Rent Smart Wales(Landlord licensing

authority)

Tenantsassociations

EU drivers

EPCAssessors

Technologysuppliers

Lettingsagencies

Establish / reviseenforceable standards

Check appropriatenessand quality of installed

measure

Check plannedmeasures meet

standards

Instruct local planners toset a range of locallyacceptable measures

Set a range of locallyacceptable measures

Provide funding to LA to increasecapacity for enforcement andbudget to support local supply

chain

Inform owner/landlord of theneed to make a change to

their property within a deadline

Inform landlords of currentand future building

regulations / MEES / HHSRS

Licencelandlords

Minimum EngeryEfficiency Standards

(MEES)

Landlord's awarenessof building regulations /

MEES

Create resources tosupport decision to install

EE measures

Identify measuresrequired for specific

property

Buildingpassport

Interpret buildingpassport

Submit retrofit plansfor planning permission

Measures includeworkable and buildable

details

Quality ofinstallation

Time-efficiency ofinstallation

Trust ininstaller

Carry outinstallation of

measuresWord ofmouth

Retrofit skills of localinstallation workforce

Commit to carrying outinstallation of measures

Assurance standardswill remain consistent

over time

Provide / finance trainingfor local installation

workforce

Availability of localstock required for

measures

Legislate to ensure Welshstandards are protected fromchanges by UK Government

Purchase stockcentrally to supply local

merchants

Central datawarehouse

Identify propertiesrequiring

decarbonisation

Trigger message to ownersthat home improvement is

needed / due

Provide a source oflow-cost finance

Access to grants andloans for homeimprovement

Strong economic case forproviding grants and loans

for home improvement

Ask landlord to makenecessary improvements

to property

Tenant's understandingof the daily running of the

building

Restrictions from tenantson when installation can

be carried out

Tenancycontract

Design strategies forsmall, medium and large

landlords

UKCCCtargets

Design a joined-up andsustained approach to

decarbonisation

Feasibility of aligningWales/UK funding

streams

Embeddecarbonisation in all

areas of work

Strengthenregulations and

laws

Tentant's awareness ofbuilding regulations /

MEES / HHSRS

Get tenant's consent forinstallation / renovations to

be carried out

Respond to request /decide to improve EE of

property

Landlord'sawareness of

decarbonisation

Landord's motivationto improve EE of

property

Social marketing campaignsto increase awareness of

decarbonisation

Educate tenantsabout

decarbonisation

Social norms aboutrequesting EEimprovements

Potential rentalsavings from EE

improvements

Contract a localinstaller

Serve HHSRSimprovement notice to

landlord

Invest in relevantretrofit skills

Provide training,education and upskilling

to installers

Release mortgage, loanor grant easily toproperty owner

Range of EEproducts on the

market

Advice portal

Financial incentives tolandlords to improve EE

of property

EPCCertificate

Permission to rentproperty and power to

evict

Assess HHSRS healthstandard of properties in

local area

LA budget andcapacity

Approve plannedmeasures

Speed ofplanning approval

Declare EPC attime of letting

EPCRegister Rent Smart

Wales register

Privately rentedproperties falling below

EPC 'E' rating

Awareness of whetherproperty is legally

lettable

Calculable risk ofdefault among

borrowing landlords

Tenant's abilityto pay rent

Universal Credit orHousing Benefit

Pressure to househomeless people from own

and neighbouring areas

Local HousingAllowance

Private landlords

Blue = Actors

Green = Behaviours

Red = Influences on behaviour

Box = Potential service /

resource

Taxonomy of Welsh housing stock

Modelling how each dwelling type behaves

Significant further grid decarbonization

Average capital cost = £33,850

cenedlaethaurdyfodol.cymru | futuregenerations.wales | @futuregencymru

Purpose of the Act • Shared purpose to achieve a

better and lasting quality of life for us all - the Wales we want

• 7 well-being goals

• Progress measured by National Indicators

cenedlaethaurdyfodol.cymru | futuregenerations.wales | @futuregencymru

Welsh Ministers.

Local Authorities.

Local Health Boards.

Public Health Wales NHS Trust.

Velindre NHS Trust.

National Park Authorities.

Fire and Rescue Authorities.

Public bodies covered by the Act

Natural Resources Wales.

The Higher Education Funding Council

for Wales.

The Arts Council of Wales.

Sports Council of Wales.

National Library of Wales.

National Museum of Wales

First Minister

Mark Drakeford

Health

Vaughan Gething

International Relations and

Welsh Language Eluned Morgan

Economy and Transport

Ken SkatesHousing and Local Government

Julie James

Finance

Rebecca Evans

Education

Kirsty WilliamsEnvironment

Lesley GriffithsCounsel General and Brexit

Jeremy Miles

Chief Whip

Jane Hutt

cenedlaethaurdyfodol.cymru | futuregenerations.wales | @futuregencymru

Ways of Working Retrofit programme to decarbonise homes in Wales

Long Term 30 year programme to deliver immediate and long term benefits

Integration Reduced GHG emissions

Increased economic activity and prosperity

A more resilient housing stock

A healthier population

Reduced inequality

More cohesive communities

Involvement Making best use of local communities and community groups

Using existing networks (RSPB, WI, Rotary, etc)

Important role for SMEs

Engagement with stakeholders and public

Enhanced roles for planning and building control

Transition Towns to generate interest and prove technologies

Collaboration Joint working within housing sector (HAs & LAs) around supply chains / procurement /

contracts

Public Bodies (WG / LAs / DBfW) on commitment, leadership, funding

Pilots, trials, across Wales

Prevention Tackling fuel poverty – improvements to health and wellbeing of citizens

Future-proofing against overheating

More cohesive communities enabled by improving the housing stock

Headline recommendations.

1. Make a strategic commitment to national residential decarbonisation and stick to it

2. Adopt the CCC recommendation for Wales of at least a 95% reduction in GHG emissions

against the 1990 baseline by 2050 and set ambitious housing targets to help achieve it

3. Put in place the right support and delivery mechanisms across all tenures to help achieve the

particular goals of Recommendation 2.

4. Urgently undertake a series of coordinated actions that will create an environment in Wales

where decarbonising homes the norm.

5. Make maximum use of communities, networks, associations and Third Sector organisations in

helping to decarbonise Welsh homes

6. Collect data and knowledge about the condition and performance of the housing stock to

inform future decisions and check the progress and outcomes of the programme

7. Pilot and trial new solutions to decarbonise Welsh homes

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50,000

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2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

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Social housing plus privately-owned homes in fuel poverty

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Privately-owned homes not in fuel poverty

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2020

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All homes

Thank youchris.jofeh@arup.com