Emerging Countries and Export Orientation

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Manuel Carreira Rodrguez.

Export-orientation policy seems to be a must to foster the industrialization of adeveloping country through exporting goods for which the country has found acompetitive advantage.

The past three decades have seen a significant policy shift in the developing world,from the failed strategies of economic independence and import-substitution tospecialization and export-orientation. While there are no theoretical or theempirical works that prove the supremacy of export orientation, the reasons forthis shift have to do with the inefficiencies of import substitution in Brazil andprotectionism in India and the initial success of the export-oriented Asian newlyindustrialised economies.However, the export orientation strategy is not free of risks. To exploit a potentialcomparative advantage requires a significant amount of investment. Thegovernment must support the subsidies of large clusters, sponsor credits to exportoriented industries and artificially keep low the exchange rate. After the firststages of development, it is doubtful that the capacity of any government to makegood decisions could be compared to the natural law of supply and demand of

mature free market democracies.

The 1997 Asian crisis showed the problems of overspecialisation in emergingexport-oriented countries. Using raw materials as an export has a considerableamount of risk compared to manufactured products. This fact explains whyChinese manufacturing economy is more resilient than Russian oil&gas economy.A policy focused on exports can lead to insufficient attention to domestic or

traditional sectors. This creates economic costs like traditionally in Japan (Porterat al., 2000). But it is also politically harder to sustain then, for example, the Thai"dual track" strategy with growth impulses for both exporting and local activitiesthat turned out to generate broad-based public support (Looney, 2004).

BRICs have been highly successful in exporting until now with a strategy based on

The opinion that follows has been written by, and is entirely the work of, Xos


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Sources:Export Competitiveness: Reversing the Logic. Christian Ketels. Harvard BusinessSchool. 2010.http://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/6231.htmlExport-oriented industrialization in developing countries. P. van Dijck, H.

Linnemann, H. Verbruggen. Council for Asian Manpower 1987http://books.google.es/books?id=1FJVzSvO25QC&printsec=frontcover&dq=export-oriented+countries&source=bl&ots=kvN06W2KFv&sig=0IQLoQgxsiVaclIY1qhxb5Q5qDg&hl=es&ei=9wDUTL3XL4KUjAfAz5TKCQ&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=2&ved=0CCkQ6AEwAQ#v=onepage&q&f=falseRethink export-led growth paradigm. UNCTAD, 2010http://www.twnside.org.sg/title2/wto.info/2010/twninfo100908.htmWorld largest exporters and importers.WTO, 2010.http://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch5en/conc5en/leadingtraders.html


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9.3 The 2008 financial crisis and the BRICsby Xose Manuel Carreira Rodriguez - Wednesday, 17 November 2010, 09:31 AM

Yourself (draft)

1 - Consider whether the financial systems in emerging economies have been affected by the effects of theglobal recession.

The global financial crisis demonstrated how interdependent economies are today. Indeed, BRICs sufferedfrom the financial crisis given that export sectors have been affected and credit was tight. Russia wasparticularly badly hit and even Chinas growth has been questioned because its economic growth slowed to asingle digit rate. However, BRICs have been less affected than other countries. In fact, this was anopportunity for BRICs to cool down their economy a little bit, to be less dependant on exports and to develop

the domestic market share as consumers in US&EU deleverage.

2 - Are the BRIC economies large emerging economies able to weather the storm?

From a broad economic point of view, BRICs are reasonably well-positioned to weather the storm becausemost corporations in these countries have strong balance sheets and enough cash to weather this stormwithout government help.

3 - Analyse whether there will be lingering effects on their longer run economic growth.

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The modest growth of BRICs during the global recession has been a chance to rethink about the structuralimbalances of the BRICs:

- Fiscal and Social Secutity reforms in Brazil.- Facing demographic decline and oil&gas exports dependency in Russia.- Infrastructures in India.- Increasing the internal market share in China.Corporations in BRICs still have solid upside potential as the economy rebounds. However, as BRICs dependheavily on exports, they can be impacted by a very long stagnation of US&EU economies unless they changethe productive structure.

If the BRICs will be growing uninterruptedly until 2050 is impossible to know or, as Keynes stated, in the longrun we are all dead. What is known is that sustainability strategies will be the key for the future growth ofthese countries.

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9.2 BRICs and the global economy

by Xose Manuel Carreira Rodriguez - Tuesday, 16 November 2010, 12:06 PM

Yourself (draft)

1 - Linkages among the economies (trade, resources, ...)

As BRICs open to the world, they are merging their relatively low cost natural resources and manpower withthe financial and technological strengths of the US, Europe and Japan.Between the years 2000 and 2005, the BRICs contributed about 28 percent of global growth expressed in

U.S. dollar terms. Morewover, intra-BRICs trade is now close to 8 percent of their total trade. There has beena sharp increase in Brazilian trade with China and Chinese investment commitments in Brazil. India hasexported intellectual property to Brazil and Brazil has greatly increased exportation of its agricultural productsto India. Russia signed accords with China, the world's biggest energy consumer, on oil, gas, coal andnuclear power.

2 - Contrast between the trade surplus in Asia and the trade deficit in the US. The global imbalance.

The U.S. trade deficit with Asian countries increased since 1980s and boomed in the first half of the 21stcentury. Asian central banks have increased drastically their foreign exchange reserves. The diversification


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into euros did not reduce the aprox. 65% share of US dollar in reserve holdings. Trade deficits do not matteras long as there are countries that finance the debtors. When the credibility of the debtor countries reachesits limit, a radical change of the production structures has to take place in the debtors and in the creditors.

3 - Declining share of the G7 countries vis--vis the BRICs. Sustainability of the BRICs growth and how their

growth paths.

Goldman Sachs estimated that by 2050 the size of the BRIC economies will exceed that of the G7 countriesbut the sustainability of BRICs' growth is still an open question. Sustainable development in BRICs requiresinnovation (a knowledge economy) for the effective utilization of human and natural resources.

With the global recession, the BRICs governments are now beginning to withdraw stimulus measures toreduce overheating and ensure more sustainable growth paths. Even the Russian market, the most severelyimpacted by the recession, is beginning to recover.

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8.2 Washington consensusby Xose Manuel Carreira Rodriguez - Sunday, 14 November 2010, 05:29 PM

Yourself (draft)

The Washington Consensus of good economic policies contributed to the unsuccesful transition from theSoviet economy to the free market economy. The proposed shock therapy and the rapid pace of privatisationshelped the concentration of key state owned companies and natural resources explotation in the hands of afew oligarcs.Managers of Soviet companies acquired entire privatised companies using a mixture of critical information,

state subidised credits and corrupt auctions. Inequality of income distribution and a high unemployment ratewere the social consequences of the WC transition.


Assigment1 (6.7 Export Orientation)by Xose Manuel Carreira Rodriguez - Friday, 5 November 2010, 04:07 PM

Yourself (draft)


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export-oriented country: a knowledge based economy that is competitive through creative design, innovation,quality standards and brand reputation.

In conclusion, export orientation might not be beneficial per se but only if it occurs in the right activities, with theright competitive advantage with other reforms. Export-orientation growth can last if some other factors areactivated creating a broader based growth strategy.

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Sources:

Export Competitiveness: Reversing the Logic. Christian Ketels. Harvard Business School. 2010.

http://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/6231.html

Export-oriented industrialization in developing countries. P. van Dijck, H. Linnemann, H. Verbruggen. Council forAsian Manpower 1987

http://books.google.es/books?id=1FJVzSvO25QC&printsec=frontcover&dq=export-oriented+countries&source=bl&ots=kvN06W2KFv&sig=0IQLoQgxsiVaclIY1qhxb5Q5qDg&hl=es&ei=9wDUTL3XL4KUjAfAz5TKCQ&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=2&ved=0CCkQ6AEwAQ#v=onepage&q&f=false

Rethink export-led growth paradigm. UNCTAD, 2010

http://www.twnside.org.sg/title2/wto.info/2010/twninfo100908.htm

World largest exporters and importers.WTO, 2010.

http://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch5en/conc5en/leadingtraders.html

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6.3 Brazilian exchange rateby Xose Manuel Carreira Rodriguez - Monday, 25 October 2010, 07:23 AM

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Yourself (draft)

Given the later financial crisis experienced by Brazil in the late 1990s/early 2000s, how vulnerable was Brazils

exchange rate after the stabilisation plan?

Brazils exchange rate after the stabilisation plan was particularly vulnerable to adverse exchange ratedevelopments.

Even though Brazil was affected by the Mexican peso crisis (1994-1995) and Asian crisis (1997), the problemsbecame evident with the Russian crisis (1998). The Brazilian government lost $30 billion in foreign reservestrying to defend the real and the fixed exchange rate collapsed in 1999.

After the effects of the Mexican/Asian/Russian speculative crisis, the exchange rate policy was reviewed, thereal suffered gradual devaluations until the Brazilian government adopted a floating exchange rate.


6.3by Xose Manuel Carreira Rodriguez - Sunday, 24 October 2010, 04:48 PM

Yourself (draft)

Considering the 'Latin Triangle' comment on whether the following is a suitable characterisation of the

objectives of Latin

American Policy makers: 'To maintain full employment and high real wage rates while being constrained by

limited external deficits'.

According to Dornbusch, to achieve full employement, high wages and low external deficit at the same time isimpossible without a dramatic increase in productivity and competitiveness.

The Latin Triangle represents three extreme boundaries or vertex of the triangle of policies:- Full employement, low wages and no external deficit.- Full employement, high wages and huge external deficit.- High unemployment rate, high wages and no external deficit.

I would add taxes as the 4th variable. The necessity of a social security and fiscal reform to unlock thecompetitiveness and productivity of Brazil is not clearly stated by Dornbusch.

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6.2 1994 stabilisation of Brazilby Xose Manuel Carreira Rodriguez - Sunday, 24 October 2010, 04:47 PM

Yourself (draft)

Consider the ways in which the stabilisation plan of 1994 contributed to worsening the already high levels of

poverty in Brazil through income distribution.

According to Dornbusch, the 1994 stabilisation plan had substantial benefits in real income for all workers

and specially the poor ones.The general rising of wages led to a positive redistribution of income among low-income workers and lowerunemployement rates.Additionally, the reduction of inflation made credit available for poor families and this fact improved thestandard of living of the lower classes.However, the effects did not last long, the gains in real income were associated to external debt and anunsustainable consumption boom.


4.4 Services vs Industryby Xose Manuel Carreira Rodriguez - Monday, 11 October 2010, 11:36 AM

Yourself (draft)

Consider why the 1990's reforms failed to stimulate the growth of the industrial sector in India? Is this why India

lags behind China?

Skeptics said that the 1990s reforms have failed India because of the lack of acceleration of growth in theindustrial sector and because most of the reforms were particularily aimed at this sector. However there arereasosn for this:- due to draconian labour laws, industry is increasingly outsourcing its activities, so the growth has been inservicies and not in pure industrial activities.

- due to still rigid laws, power and large-scale utilities firms are waiting to enter the market. Perhaps no singleissue excites Indian industrialists more than the subject of erratic power supply.

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- due to fiscal deficit, civil infraestructures are dificult to finance and transportation costs or times are huge.The old state-run Mumbai port is a classic example: it suffers from bureaucracy, poor draught, lowproductivity, high costs and long vessel turnaround times.

Those restraints and the bad performance of Indian industrial sector have made Indian growth weaker thanthe Chinese growth.


4.2 Unbalanced paymentsby Xose Manuel Carreira Rodriguez - Monday, 11 October 2010, 11:33 AM

Yourself (draft)

What caused India to rely heavily on foreign borrowing?

India relied heavily on foreign borrowing for reasons:- Foreign borrowing was a supplement to the relatively weak public finances and the small domestic financialinstitutions.

- Private savings financed most of India's investment, but further growth in private savings was difficultbecause they were already at quite a high level.- External borrowing helped bridge the considerable gap between exports and imports. With limited exports,foreign borrowing is an easy way to finance capital goods imports.

Was it a consequence of the 1980s reform agenda?

No exactly. The consequence of the unlimited foreign borrowing was an economic boom that contrasted withthe modesty of the reforms proposed in the 1980s agenda.

Large foreign borrowing rather than direct investment raised the risk of crisis and tended to push up realinterest rates. When there is trouble in the economy, loans cease and stock investors run but directinvestment in factories and stores cannot not disappear immediately. China has more of that, so it is moreimmune from international financial crisis than India.This vicious spiral requires more foreign borrowing and this trend led to a balance of payments crisis in India

in 1991.

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3.6 1980's Indiaby Xose Manuel Carreira Rodriguez - Tuesday, 5 October 2010, 09:55 AM

Yourself (draft)

a) Did India achieve growth via opening in the 1980's?Indeed, the liberalisation and deregulation of industry and trade fueled an oscillating growth in the 1980s.

b) How important were the rupee exchange rate and the global factors?

Devaluation of rupee (more or less pegged to a weak dollar) made Indian exports more competitive.One of the global factors that promoted open trade was the collapse of the Soviet Union. The collapse of theUSSR forced India to seek new markets.

c) Does India provide a case for removing trade barriers as a pre-requisite for growth?India can be an example of the benefits of the transition from a state controlled trade to an open tradeeconomy. However, India is also an example of the effects of timid and unsteady reforms: lack of credibility,volatility and unstable growth in the 1980s until the short financial crisis of 1991.


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3.5 India's Development Pathby Xose Manuel Carreira Rodriguez - Tuesday, 5 October 2010, 09:53 AM

Yourself (draft)

The isolated and discontinuous liberalising actions during the 1960s and 1970s are precursors of the firstwave of reforms in the 1980s.

After the independence from Britain, India followed the Soviet model of industrialisation controlled by thestate. By the mid-1970s, the obsolescence of the technology of many industries was more than evident. Adomestic lobby of industrialists pressed the government for liberalisation because the restraints on importsand industrial controls had been very counterproductive. Then, a steady liberalisation of imports (technologyand equipment) started.

The process of deregulation and liberalisation of industry began in the mid-1970s and the pace of reform wasaccelerated in mid-1980s after the Soviet collapse.

Although the process of deregulation and liberalisation of industry began in the mid-1970s, the pace of reformpicked up significantly in mid-1980s after the Soviet collapse. The main elements of this first wave of reformswere:- Relaxation of industrial regulations.- Exchange rate depreciation.

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- Some license-free imports.- Introduction of export incentives.- Limitation of the public sector monopolies.


3.4 Patterns of trade and Chinaby Xose Manuel Carreira Rodriguez - Tuesday, 5 October 2010, 09:50 AM

Yourself (draft)

In general other countries have three strategies:

First option: If the distance to the distribution centres or the labour cost are lower, the resultant production

costs can be lower than those of the Chinese manufacturers and it is possible to compete in price (f.ex.,cement, steel, wood, flowers, etc...).

Second option: countries with superior skills or technology can compete via quality and design (f.ex.automobiles, optical lens, jewelry, perfumes, furniture, piping&pumping, book publishing, nuclear, oil & gasdevices, etc...).

Third option: for cultural reasons or lack of know-how there are enter niches that are not dominated byChinese manufacturers (f.ex. biotechnology, pharmaceutical products, cheese, wine and spirits, coffee,tobacco, olive oil, etc..).


3.3 China's competitive sectorsby Xose Manuel Carreira Rodriguez - Tuesday, 5 October 2010, 09:49 AM

Yourself (draft)

According to icrier.org, China's ten most competitive sectors over 2003 were.-Manufactures of plaiting material, basketwork, etc.-Bird skin, feathers, artificial flowers, human hair.-Umbrellas, walking-sticks, seat-sticks, whips, etc.-Articles of leather, animal gut, harness, travel goods.

-Silk.-Toys, games, sports requisites.

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-Headgear and parts thereof.-Footwear, gaiters and the like, parts thereof.-Other made textile articles, sets, worn clothing. etc.

-Railway, tramway locomotives, rolling stock, equipment.


2.4 Progress and failures of Chinese integrationby Xose Manuel Carreira Rodriguez - Monday, 27 September 2010, 08:39 AM

Yourself (draft)

Consider the areas in which China has made the most progress in integrating with the world economy and the

other areas in which it is still lagging.

AREAS OF PROGRESS:- Increased volume of exports thanks to the open door policy.- China has become a leading consumer of major commodities.- China has become a leading destination for foreing direct investment.

FAILURES:- Chinese banking is underdeveloped, its credit policy is not profit oriented.- Privatization of the state-owned enterprises that are not ready for competition with foreign companies is anarea where the potential challenges of opening can be felt.- Possibility of a currency crisis due to lack of monetary reform. There is a high risk of a sharp appreciation ofthe yuan because the exchange rate is controlled by a mixture of political interests instead of the equilibriumpoint given by the currency market.


2.3 China and open trade policiesby Xose Manuel Carreira Rodriguez - Monday, 27 September 2010, 08:38 AM

Yourself (draft)

What has been the role of trade in China's economic growth and what are the implications of WTO accession?

Consider also the lessons that other countries can drawn from China's experience.

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WTO accession on 11 December 2001 opened up opportunities for the wold economy. It was possible tomaximize gains from low cost exports and efficient offshoring and from Chinas transformation into a majorimporter. Accession to WTO has opened Chinese market to foreing banks and multinationals that compete

with state-owned enterprises, and it opened foreign markets to Chinese goods and investments.

Economies that have a complementary trade pattern with China have benefited from the open trade.However, Chinas so-called "going out" policy has increased the amount of overseas investment and Chinacould be a direct competitor to some economies.Affected countries would do best to improve the skills and flexibility of the human resources and focus ontheir comparative advantages.

Finally, since WTO accession, Chinese economic cycles are increasingly controlled by global market forcesand Chinas growing trade with the US, the EU and Japan makes the economic cycles of these countriesbecome coupled.

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2.2 What are China's most important challenges?by Xose Manuel Carreira Rodriguez - Monday, 27 September 2010, 08:37 AM

Yourself (draft)

According to CHINAS ECONOMIC REFORMS IN THE GLOBALISATION ERA by J.Y. Lin, Y. Yao & L. Yueh,globalization poses challenges to Chinas reform path

- Trade disputes between China and the US, EU and Japan and valuation of the Chinese currency.Chinas economic growth attracted short-term capital flows and the exchange rate will probably appreciate in

a short period of time. Whether the US, EU and Japan would continue to import from China at high prices orwould acquire the same products and services from other countries is difficult to predict.

- WTO obligations reach not only the exports but also internal reforms such as the opening of the bankingsector. Chinese banks are already in need of reforms and will be affected by the competition with foreignbanks soon. In this scenario China will be more susceptible to global financial instabilities.

- Privatisation has significantly improved performance in China until now but, while foreign large multinationalcorporations could dominate several markets, many large stated-owned enterprises could be on the verge of

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bankruptcy causing massive unemployment.


1.5 China's transition pathby Xose Manuel Carreira Rodriguez - Wednesday, 22 September 2010, 07:34 AM

Yourself (draft)

A) What are the key characteristics of China's economic reform path, paying particular attention to China's

political economy?

Chinas "one child family" policy has created a society where women have time to work and where most of thefamilies savings concentrate on the education and future needs of one child. Also, those vast savings haveprovided the first investment money infraestructures, industries and more.

In 1978 Deng Xiao Ping took power and started agricultural reforms liberalizing food prices and increasing theincentive to produce what was needed. Then, in the former Soviet Union in the 1990s, the quick liberalization(or "shock therapy") resulted in economic collapse so Deng and like-minded reformers adopted a gradualstrategy with respect to other sectors.

Market competition was encouraged without starting a rapid liberalization: the traditional production levelsspecified by the government did not grow as the economy grew and state-owned firms were allowed to do asthey wished with the extra production. What mattered was not privatization of the companies but thatcompanies competed in a more or less free market. Also, SEZs served as regional tests previous to nationalpolicies.

Finally, by inviting foreign direct investors and becoming part of the WTO, China learned modern productionand business techniques and got a new source of investment. The links with Hong Kong, Taiwan and Macau-internationally integrated economies- helped compensate for problems in Chinas legal framework.

By taking advantage of investment in technology applied to manufacturing, open trade and artificial yuandevaluation, China has moved from being a third-world country to growing faster than any other economy. Itopened the off-shoring of manufacturing plants from Europe, Japan and the United States. In China, it ispossible (for now at least) to produce products using cheaper labor, lower taxes, lower healthcare costs,lower energy costs, and less restrictive environmental regulations.

B) Discuss how the features of being a developing country also matter in assessing China?

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The Chinas status of being a developing country is visible in three areas:- Lack of environmental awareness.

- Underdeveloped labour rights.- Deficit in urbanisation with nearly 60% of the population living in rural areas.


1.4: Conditions for Economic Growthby Xose Manuel Carreira Rodriguez - Monday, 20 September 2010, 04:20 PM

Yourself (draft)

The set of drivers required for economic growth in BRICs are:

Institutions:Mature and transparent institutions ensure sound macroeconomic policy and reduce vulnerability to unstableeconomic conditions (i.e. high inflation periods). Indeed, BRICs replaced old financial frameworks anddeveloped agile institutions that lend to new businesses.However, all four of the BRICs need a reduction of general corruption, especially Russia, where crime and

mafia are still key issues.

Macroeconomic stability:A country which has stable macroeconomic conditions will receive more foreign inflows than a more volatileeconomy. Stability of major reserve currencies and sustainability of fiscal policies are the key to achieve along-term economic growth.China leads the BRICs in stability. On the other hand, Brazil's main economic concern used to be price

stability. A stable low inflation allowed Brazilian companies to focus on making things right rather thanworrying about the countrys next financial crisis.

Openness to trade:Trade openness is a key determinant of foreign investment as represented.Brazil experimented a progress of privatization since the nineties. The expansion of trade was leveraged bythe introduction of foreign capital and opening of markets.Russia shifted the production structure from one of Soviet state-owned enterprises to one based upon local

private enterprises and foreign enterprises.In India, the private-ownership share is expanding triggered by deregulation laws of the nineties.

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In China, the share of foreign capital and private-owned enterprises is rising in the mining & manufacturingand export sectors.

Education:Russia is on the educational level of Germany of South Korea in contrast to India.However, countries with a relatively young population, which now devote considerable attention to raisingeducational standards, can be expected to be strongly placed for future development of the knowledgeeconomy.According to http://www.ceelbas.ac.uk/events/EG_EBRICsarticle.pdfIndia now produces some 120,000 IT graduates a year and skills are being rapidly upgraded, but in Russia

the total stock of programmers is aproximately 200,000 and the labour force is growing more slowly than inIndia.


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Emerging Countries and Export Orientation