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Emerging Companies Conference Presentation 17 October 2001

Emerging Companies Conference Presentation 17 October 2001

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Page 1: Emerging Companies Conference Presentation 17 October 2001

Emerging Companies Conference Presentation

17 October 2001

Page 2: Emerging Companies Conference Presentation 17 October 2001

2

Contents

• State of global wheat markets

• Domestic wheat production for 2001/2002

• Business stream strategies & risk allocation

• Investment highlights

Page 3: Emerging Companies Conference Presentation 17 October 2001

3

State of global wheat markets

Page 4: Emerging Companies Conference Presentation 17 October 2001

4

Wheat production – major exporters

Australia20.320.9

EU-1594.0

104.0

Argentina18.016.4

Canada21.526.8

Production 01/02Production 00/01(million tonnes)

United States54.360.5

USDASeptember 2001

Page 5: Emerging Companies Conference Presentation 17 October 2001

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Historical world wheat production & consumption

440

490

540

590

640

Mill

ion

To

nn

es

World Production World Consumption

USDASeptember 2001

Page 6: Emerging Companies Conference Presentation 17 October 2001

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Global stocks and stocks to use ratio

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Global Stocks Global STU

Mill

ion

To

nn

es

USDASeptember 2001

%

Page 7: Emerging Companies Conference Presentation 17 October 2001

7

World wheat trade

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1980

/81

1981

/82

1982

/83

1983

/84

1984

/85

1985

/86

1986

/87

1987

/88

1988

/89

1989

/90

1990

/91

1991

/92

1992

/93

1993

/94

1994

/95

1995

/96

1996

/97

1997

/98

1998

/99

1999

/00

2000

/01

2001

/02

Mill

ion

Tonn

es

World Excluding FSU/PRC FSU CHINAUSDA

September 2001

Page 8: Emerging Companies Conference Presentation 17 October 2001

8

Domestic wheat production

for 2001/2002

Page 9: Emerging Companies Conference Presentation 17 October 2001

9

ABARE Forecast

@ 4 Sept 2001

AWF Forecast

@ 24 Sept 2001

Production Prospects

QLD 0.90 MT 0.69 MT Well below average

NSW 7.20 MT 7.27 MT Average

VIC 2.50 MT 2.67 MT Average

SA 3.99 MT 4.13 MT Above average

WA 5.46 MT 5.67 MT Below average

TOTAL 20.07 MT 20.44 MT Slightly below average

Australian wheat production forecasts

USDA forecast @ 4 September 2001: 20.3MT

Page 10: Emerging Companies Conference Presentation 17 October 2001

10

Business stream strategies

&

risk allocation

Page 11: Emerging Companies Conference Presentation 17 October 2001

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Business streams

2001F EBIT$9.3m

Pool Management Services

2001F PBT$80.2m

Finance and Risk Management Products

2001F EBIT$70.3m

Grain Acquisition and Trading

2001F EBIT($3.0m)

Grain Technology

2001F EBIT$15.4m

Supply Chain and Other Investments

Page 12: Emerging Companies Conference Presentation 17 October 2001

12

New Pool Management Services Remuneration Model

• Two-tiered payment system

– A base fee

– An out-performance incentive (OPI)

• There is a cap on the total payments by AWBI to AWB. The base fee and the OPI combined will be capped at 3% of GPV

• Effective from October 2001

Page 13: Emerging Companies Conference Presentation 17 October 2001

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Finance and Risk Management Products

• Opportunities for new financial products being evaluated and pursued

• Growth in risk advisory services to provide business cash flow management for more growers

Page 14: Emerging Companies Conference Presentation 17 October 2001

14

Grain Acquisition and Trading

• Domestic grain and deregulated non wheat export market growth potential

• Investigation of opportunities in global trading in overseas markets

Page 15: Emerging Companies Conference Presentation 17 October 2001

15

Grain Technology

• Focus on the development of a proprietary position in plant genetics and new cereal varieties

– MOA signed with Syngenta

• Undergoing divestment of non strategic assets

– Agrifood Toowoomba

– AWB Seeds Dimboola

– Agrifood Seed Testing Business

Page 16: Emerging Companies Conference Presentation 17 October 2001

16

Supply Chain and Other Investments

• Six new storage and handling sites being constructed in NSW and Victoria

• Chartering restructure providing potential to increase share of wheat volume and other bulk cargoes

• Opportunities for further value chain integration being evaluated with respect to end use processing, distribution and marketing to final consumers

Page 17: Emerging Companies Conference Presentation 17 October 2001

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1. Continue to dominate and grow business of wheat growers

2. Increase revenue from active management of national wheat pool

3. Increase revenue from the supply chain and other investments

4. Diversify revenue streams by offering products and services to other growers and customers

Summary of our growth strategy as an integrated global grains asset manager

Page 18: Emerging Companies Conference Presentation 17 October 2001

18

Risk allocation

National Pool Underwritten loans Principal trading

• Final net pool return – final sale price– foreign exchange

• Credit risk manage-ment outcomes

• Supply chain costs

Grower risk AWB risk

• Pool return falls below 80%

• Size of pool impacts revenue derived from products and services

• Incentive in pool management fee

• Margin on loans• Underwriting fees• Fees from basis

contracts

• Principal positions• Multi-varietal and fixed

grade contracts

Page 19: Emerging Companies Conference Presentation 17 October 2001

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Investment highlights

Page 20: Emerging Companies Conference Presentation 17 October 2001

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Investment highlights

• Significant expertise and scale in global wheat marketing

• One of the largest integrated global wheat managers

• Large existing customer base

• Manager of the Single Desk

• Potential to broaden range of products, services and customers in Australia and overseas

• Strong balance sheet and dividend paying capacity

Page 21: Emerging Companies Conference Presentation 17 October 2001

21

2000/2001 Results Announcement

• 2000/2001 results released on Wednesday 28th November

• Analyst briefing at 2:30pm on 28th November

• Domestic institutional briefings on 29th and 30th November

• Singapore and Hong Kong institutional briefings on 3rd- 6th December

Investor Relations ContactMichael Thomas

Head of Investor Relations03 92092064